regionals, such as fifth third, citizens, kind of leaning to the downside, as well as keycorp.ormer among the financials today. the moves come after wells fargo analyst mike mayo downgraded the 2 q earnings estimates for several of the regional banks, including keycorp, comerica, and truist. that was on weaker net interest income commentary. there's this expectation that the profitability metric for loan making, nii, will trough sometime in the first half of the year, but as rates stay higher for longer, that could get pushed out, so that's some of the concern there. we'll have a better sense, of course, when banks kick off 2q earnings one week from today with jpmorgan, wells fargo, and s citigroup leading the pack. perhaps it's worth noting that mayo actually upgraded some of the larger names. j jpmorgan, morgan stanley, and goldman-sachs, upgrading those earnings on the prospects of a capital markets revival, scott. >> he's long made the case, right, goliath is winning. those are his words, not mine, as he makes the continued case for the bigger banks. big week next week, oka

interest, david, jpmorgan, goldman-sachs, morgan stanley, and lowered on several regionals, including keycorprd revisions on the regionals reflected weaker net interest commentary. i believe we saw that out of the financial conference a few weeks ago. there's been this overarching question about when you'll see that inflection point, when you'll see that trough in net interest income, and a reminder to our viewers, that's the profitability metric from loan making and whether or not higher for longer interest rates will impact when that trough happens, whether it will have to be pushed out further beyond the 2q, which is what a lot of people were expecting. mike mayo focused on that. and then, of course, you have this story in "the wall street journal" today, which is, an interview with mary ann lake, who runs, basically, chase and consumer banking for the bank, talking about how regulations are impacting their need and the potential for their need to pass down some of those fee restrictions on to customers. so, the story goes into this idea that the cfpb's proposing of an $8 cap on credit car

our next guest out with new calls on the financials upgrading pnc to buy, downgrading keycorp to neutralheading into earnings. erica najarian, consumer finance analyst joins us now. the stocks have been acting well, the s&p, trading near the highs. how do you pick winners from here into earnings? >> look, i think at the end of the day, we have pretty overwhelming macro catalysts. you had the presidential debate and i think the, you know, let's call it the election future started pricing in a trump victory and i think everyone was dusting off of 2016 playbook. additionally, i think the jobs number had increased the probability of a september rate cut to 75%, which also, you know, brought up the rate playb financials. i think that's why you're seeing recent underperformance. but the way i think you can distinguish from here is, you know, who has the capital to do better if we do have a pretty stable economy. you know, at the end of the day, the stress test results we got the wednesday before the presidential debate was actually quite differentiated in terms of winners and losers. you know,