why did keynes rush?hink the reason was the sense of urgency communicated to him by developments within britain and europe-- in germany where hitler had come to power, in the united states where revolution was in the air, and in other parts of europe and in britain, too, where the intellectual class was rapidly moving to the left. he felt he had an answer that was superior to marx as to analyzing capitalism's discomforts, an answer that was not only superior, but much more congenial to him for handling it. john maynard keynes is a truly memorable figure of the 20th century. he married a ballerina, ran an insurance business, and wrote a treatise on mathematical probability. but first and foremost, he was a teacher. the imagination he showed made... his ability to associate something he found interesting with something that had been said that by itself was uninteresting... it just stood out. you were in semishock listening to him. i was also impressed by the support and warmth he gave students. for all his

what was so different about keynes' view of the economy?realize what a revolutionary idea keynes had, we have to recall again the classical view which said supply creates its own demand. if consumers don't want to consume all their incomes, they can lend their savings to businesses who will invest it. the idea is that if consumption goes down, investment demand will go up. if investment demand goes down, consumption demand will go up. in either case, total demand remains high. keynes said if you had a fall in investment spending, this might lead to a fall in consumption spending. total demand-- consumption demand plus investment demand-- might fall. it might be a multiplied fall once the process got started. let me stress this was a shocking idea. when demand falls, it may not repair itself a la says law. it may fall further. there may not be enough total demand to provide markets for the goods or the labor that produces them. the economics profession was coming to grips with the possibility of a serious depression. it was on the verge of a

much of the theory came from john maynard keynes.nes argued that an industrial economy could get stuck at high levels of unemployment. the depression proved this. he predicted strong government intervention such as tax cuts and spending programs would restore prosperity. this seemed to be happening during world war ii. by 1945, many people accepted keynesian theories, but were reluctant to see them legislated. to bridge this gap between economics and politics, a council of economic advisers was suggested. the question remained where to put this new body. we put it in the executive office of the president, which tied it up to presidential power and fit it into the basic idea that the president is the manager of economic affairs. while conservatives and liberals debated in congress, a weary president died. the nation mourned franklin roosevelt and wondered about its new leader, the unknown, uncharismatic harry truman. for all his supposed shortcomings, the new president had common-sense ideas on unemployment. leon keyserling, original

treasury we should have pursued the plan of john maynard keynes keynes and the british to establish a new super national current c. now whereas china is not currently pushing in that direction they are pushing in the direction of weakening the influence of the u.s. dollar for example in recent years china has signed by loughner all agreements with russia turkey. japan and brazil to begin trading with us dollars as an intermediary vehicle right and there are sure to be votes to come we'd love to have you back here to talk about that sometimes in all those multi-vitamin trade agreements ben thank you so much for your time and your insight we have to have you back on very soon. thanks very much aaron. that was author and director of international economics at the council on foreign relations dr ben still turn out for today's big deal. time now for the big deal i'm joined by our team resident comedian that we have here and we can we thank you they're very very good now in today's big deal chevron attempts to put out some fires but they actually have only fan the flames now comedian and au

keynes wanted to establish a new super national currency which you would call bank or which he hoped would eventually come to rival the u.s. dollar and supplant its global role i should emphasize that keynes would never have proposed such a thing or his government wouldn't have allowed him to if he and his government had felt that there was an opportunity for reestablishing sterling as a major international reserve currency but they knew that there was and the second best alternative for them was to find a way to contain the power of the united states by limiting the influence of the u.s. dollar now having suffered a huge financial crisis and can the one during the great depression do you think we will soon revisit the idea of ideas discussed at bretton woods. well interestingly enough back in two thousand and nine the chinese central bank governor joe produced a statement that got enormous attention saying that bretton woods had really been a terrible mistake we should not have pursued the plan of harry dexter white and us treasury we should have pursued the plan of john maynard key

if we have a currency crisis i mean you know you're going to throw keynes out the window if you want to and if you want to solve it it's keynesian economics that is you know behind the crisis is following all this this nonsense i had a feeling you'd have that question is the name kansas not going to and i'm going to sell well for an event i had to throw it out there i'm moving right on now gold it seems to be breaking out here what do you think is going on. well i think people are slowly waking up to reality they're not completely away but we have got a lot of bad economic data now a lot of people want to dismiss it and say it's all weather related i think that's just an excuse i think it to date is too bad there's too much of it to blame it on the cold weather but i think people are starting to wake up to the idea that it's not as good as people thought and so people are gradually moving back into gold but i think it's just getting started i think that you still have a lot of naysayers a lot of short sellers in the gold market in fact i think that main sellers are the shorts who are

i'm against milton keynes was more serious crimes it's a fun this time on its national who now chairs the commons motion is the crux of what he's like the sky the important thing is what love the muppets to happen here all the best moments. witnesses said. for most of all his stuff is not just minutes before the defeat from the ferry barrett co creator of all that well that's it for ten years discussions were korea's national assembly to pass this very apt. currently my facts on what they bought the ticket because with two counts and if he went. as in favor of with the opposition are focused more on its court system and its baking cups and then so i was no consensus. and the national assembly. so now be the opposition party that now's the time because of the train conductor of heat in and out snowboarding typical camp is that it could not believe in my stamping. a few more conscious of how the photos for free in and yet that's to get that works and is so complex problem as he is moving to a party with more focus on human rights and the civil and political rights that come the oppositi

i'm against milton keynes was more serious crimes it's a fun this time on its national who now chairs the commons motion is the crux which is what he's done. the important thing is what you love the muppets to happen here. all that has been a week. yet for most of all his stuff is not just in before the defeat them. very very concrete holding out on the twelveth pick in over ten years discussions were korea's national assembly to pass this very apt. sprinkle the dry facts on what they bought the ticket because with two counts and if he went. as in favor of establishing tips that will combine with the opposition are. but with more on its belief system and its baking cups and then so i was no consensus and in the national assembly but not with the kids so i'll be the opposition party that now's the time because of the train connection with the in and out snowboarding typical camp is that it's not really cannot step in. if you were conscious of how the photos for free in yet that's to get that works and is so complex problem as the police report with more focus on human rights and the ci

fun conversation between top us officials has expired you know what keynes up the street to town. that would be great to see how good it came in at the un health clinic and email are the eu. the intercepted phone call us assistant secretary of state's victorian ian and draws a food drive much of the new ukrainian government should be on tonight's season or in a fortnight things from me. what you hear it during this four minute conversation is basically two top us officials strategizing about how to form ukraine's new government. it sounds like they're playing a game of cats. with the opposition leaders as as the pieces on a chessboard are trying to determine which opposition leader has the best economic and governing experience to work inside a ukraine's new government in which opposition leaders should remain on the outside i e it's a bit shocking to actually care to listen to it up you couldn't completely grasp the fact that they are strategizing on how to put together the government of another country on a set of car freezing everything well let's let our viewers actually take

if america had not named keynes over 50 years, maybe nothing would have happened. -- evan america had not maintain this for over 50 years, maybe nothing would have happened then the paradox would have been there. why did america maintain the gemini? there is no conclusive answer to your question. the decision-makers in real-time is something i have learned to appreciate as a historian has to confront the paradox all of the time. every day. they have my sympathy and often by respect. sometimes even when they make the wrong decisions. they know if they make a certain decision, and may have untold consequences. if they do not make a decision and may also have untold consequences. consistently consecutively over the past half century and beyond american policymakers have overwhelmingly come down on the side of maintaining peace in the middle east. i think with humility to some very powerful minds and i think some good hearts. you have to give them credit. >> thank you ambassador warren. let me say a couple of things in closing. this was a sterling debut from the ambassador. also everyone

. >> let me talk about a trajectory that maybe we both can foresee which is one that keynes foresaw which is ultimate solving what he called economic problem, or the, of extreme poverty in the world. you don't have to be that wild eyed to extrapolate some of the trends that we are already on and you see the extreme poverty could be eliminated within 20 years worldwide. think of that, how pretty that's something we've always had with us and people have struggled with her not centuries but millennia. and our generation, we may be within sight of finally dealing with extreme poverty. that's because these technologies are creating so much bounty and so much wealth. the issue is going to be distribution and managing the disruption associated with it. but in terms of material progress we are doing quite impressively. >> i don't want to brag but bono was my warm-up act at it. he gave this not a presentation to give got to watch it about the real potential, the likely trajectory to wipe out extreme poverty in southern africa and by extension than ever of the to echo erik, that is not independent

. >> let me talk about it trajectory that maybe we both can foresee which is one that keynes foresaw which is ultimately solving what you call her economic problem or the problem of extreme poverty in the world. in fact you don't have to be that wild-eyed to extrapolate some of the trends that we are already on and see that extreme poverty could be eliminated within 20 years worldwide. poverty is something we have always had with the same people have struggled with for not centuries but millennia. our generation we may be within sight of finally dealing with extreme poverty and that is because these technologies are creating so much bounty and so much wealth. the issue is going to be distribution and managing the disruption associated -- associated with abbott in terms of material progress we are doing impressively. >> erik and i were at tech this year but bonna with my warm at -- warm-up act that ted. he gave the knockout presentation about the real potential, the likely trajectory to wipe out extreme poverty in sub-saharan africa and to echo erik that is not independent from techno

john maynard keynes, an intellectual hero of both of the sediment and 30 tech unemployment is at hand. the question is exactly right. knowing the history of the historical pattern should,, lot is at times utterly different products is the area finally here? the answer is it's too early to tell, but the data are not encouraging. there are good reasons to take this time really is different. for all of human history, if you want reported, you have to love a person not work. not anymore. if you wanted to listen to a person, under what they wanted, financing and spits back to them come you had to involve human being and not work. not anymore. we can go on and on. i guess it is used, drive a vehicle, answer telephone. any of the things we've always needed people for them. we don't anymore. the digital encroachment into human territory is brought, deep, fast and i think irreversible. to me that feels like this time is different. >> matches the deck elegy. economic statistics suggest something different is going on. as you pointed out, technology has already been creating jobs and they're so

there is a lovely little story about john maynard keynes also with a lot of insight and knowledge into the british economic statistics for the policy during the first world war how could you be more plugged in even once adopted based on forecasting the business cycle totally failed for nearly ten years underperformed in the market and finally switched to the warren buffet style investment and that turned out to be successful for him. the bank of england was about to change the base rate and if the forecasting is hard it should be the benchmark whether we understand the system or not. it' >> let me underline a few of the things one area which economists did go wrong is that especially in macroeconomics there came to be the feeling that there is only one way to do it. micro- foundations and so forth even if you think those are good things the idea that this is the only way you can get in the journals that was terrible so i agree entirely on that. on which way to go that is much less clear about the behavioral economics and psychology versus the standard econ. maybe that will turn out to

so far it is not spread across the whole country, it seems to keyn certain parts of cities, all the unrest. that can change very quickly, we are trying to be prepared for any scenarios and look after our people. it is less important about sales right now, it is looking after people. >> can i ask you -- looking at this from a different angle and bring in russia as well. the ruble this morning trading low, the central bank talking about buying foreign currencies. the ukrainian currency has been hit heavily, how are you managing that? >> i believe it is not only link all thern europe, emerging markets. currency is a headwind for many businesses right now. we are linked to emerging markets, of course it is a headwind for carlsberg. and for us because of russia and, to a smaller extent, key markets in asia. it does impact our reported numbers. wet we have to focus on -- cannot control currency, we can try to condensate with pricing. we have to make sure we performed extremely well in the underlying business on what we call organic basis. beating competition, taking market share, and maximizing

john maynard keynes in the aftermath of the great depression was the one you propose what he called counter-cyclical spending, stimulus programs to bring the economy out of a recession art russian at a time when private investment is not there in the government needs to invest and that's the basic idea and still is the basic idea. you had a whole countervailing point of view which culminated in ronald reagan and friedman was one of the leading champions of the view that stimulus spending never works. you can't stimulate an economy and accumulate debt to do that. that is really what was lying underneath this so when you hear people like ted cruz or marco rubio saying that it was a complete failure reflecting that huge debate going on for decades. >> host: stephanie and highland california, democratic caller. >> caller: good morning. one thing i want to say is i can't believe five years later we are still looking at the stimulus. when there was tarp and when there were tax cuts that weren't paid for it and the wars that weren't paid for and there was the pharmaceutical bill or whatever that wasn't pai