kokou: absolutely. one thing to bear in mind, we are currently in the longest business cycle in history which started in 2009. the fed has packed in policy close to 20 basis points. the amount of debt sitting on high-yield. $5 trillion. half of that is triple. $2.5 trillion, just above high-yield or junk debt. investment has never been so low-quality over the past 20 years. we are facing a major refinancing wall, or even mountain over the next three years where a lot of these companies sitting on large amounts of debt will have to refinance at higher levels. francine: you say that most investors see a recession coming in 2020. do you think that is market-based? kokou: the recession is negative growth. the point -- we talked to a lot of investors and the biggest worry is a slowdown in the growth, a cycle that we have so far. this is very much becoming consensus. the first half of 2020 or second half of 2020, it is not an exact science but there is a content is growing on the amount of debt sitting in hig

joining us us kokou agbo—bloua, head of market strategy at societe generale. done pretty sharply yesterday. why? this is part of the way the market works. we have profit taking from people who bet that asset prices will fall, take profit and buy it back. this is more technical short term. the bigger issues are at the longer term worries that the market has with respect to a recession, potentially in 2020. where are you on the very scale, you very worried, not so concerned ? on the very scale, you very worried, not so concerned? we are cautiously optimistic. one of the things in the situation, we had been predicting a slowdown in growth in gdp in 2020, one of the things that took us by surprise was the reactive is of central banks, the third pausing its balance sheet and ministry —— monetary policy. so not increasing interest rates, some are talking about them cutting interest rates? this is what the bond market is pricing with the yield curve becoming inverted. you have to think about the ten year bond yield as a measure of long—term nominal growth rate, how f