kono considered to be more the maverick.e is a reform-minded politician, a fluent english speaker, georgetown graduate, a favorite of young people across japan. he has more twitter followers than any other candidates combined. he was considered business community friendly. that is why you are seeing the stock market go down. the topix down on this expectation that kono may be out and that kishida, perhaps the more safe pick, is going to be the next prime minister. he is a former banker, former foreign minister. manus: where are we on the stimulus side? you talk about the power. he has the twitter followers. this is going to come down to who is going to drive the economy. if you read the story, it suggests that kishida is a bigger proponent of stimulus. is that a correct analysis? >> he has been on record as saying he wants to see trillions of yen spending in covid relief measures. many candidates have talked about fiscal stimulus. there has been a run-up in that kind of expectation. we are also expecting on the monetary fron

the centrist candidate is probably tauro kono. went to georgetown university, the youngest of the three, 58 years old, and all polls indicate him, the former defense minister and currently the vaccines are, is the freight runner -- vaccine czar, is the front runner. >> how is the covid situation shaping the race? >> it is going to be the backdrop of just about everything. we have seen interviews and a press conference last week. one candidate wants to see the government spent trillions of dollars for pandemic relief. we can seek balancing of fiscal and monetary policy later once they are through the crisis. keep in mind, opinion polls show more than 70% of the population depend -- of japan blame the government from is handling this crisis and there are states of emergency in 21 prefectures. that is the most since the pandemic began. japan is in a serious bind. with more than 2300 cases in tokyo on saturday, according to the -- it will likely continue at least for another two weeks beyond the current expiration of september 12. >>

kono is seen as more dynamic, he has quite a social media presence.an, so there is concern amongst the ldp members that they will lose seats no matter who leads. but if kono is in the leadership, probably they'll do better than any of the other candidates. right now we are listening to their policy promises, kono has stirred controversy with his support for boosting renewables and phasing out nuclear energy. and also, pension reform — so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out, and whether the backroom bosses will call this second round and pull him into the front.— into the front. away from the domestic _ into the front. away from the domestic issues, _ into the front. away from the domestic issues, foreign - into the front. away from the i domestic issues, foreign policy issues are also huge forjapan right now, what would the foreign nation, the quad — how difficult it an issue is that in the race? the quad - how difficult it an issue is that in the race?— the quad - how difficult it an issue is that in the race? polls show that voters are much

the leader right now is mister kono, a former defence minister, foreign defence minister, he's younge who also has extensive cabinet experience, but is not particularly personable. then you have the third runner who's backed by former prime minister shinzo abe. she's an ideological soulmate and, for a lot of ldp members, that makes her a bit of a liability. then you have the last one to join the race, a lot of people believe she was added basically to siphon away votes from mister kono, who has a number of enemies amongst the power brokers in the ruling ldp. jeff, how different do you think any successor will be from the way the former prime minister, as of this week, governed?— minister, as of this week, governed? well, he wasn't particularly _ governed? well, he wasn't particularly capable - governed? well, he wasn't particularly capable and . governed? well, he wasn't particularly capable and hej particularly capable and he wasn't very good communicator, very defensive. so he went out of office very unpopular, that's why he stepped down, he was seen democrats seem to be a liabilit

kono was the former defense minister, as well. probably the most popular by public opinion and also the business community, and especially the young in japan. he might win the first vote. but if you don't get that clear majority, they will have the runoff, where that might favor kishida, who is more popular among the bigwigs, the party stalwarts in this faction. we are gearing from local media, japanese media reporting that he and the leading female candidate, perhaps they will join forces to try to beat kono. if it goes to a runoff, that might favor them. yvonne: it seems like for the market, though, they don't really care who comes out as the winner here because everything is better or anything is better than before. i'm wondering in terms of monetary and fiscal policy, are we likely to see any changes? >> not likely to see different monetary policy yet. she has branded hers as sunday economics. she would be more of a continuity candidate with abenomics. she had been picked by abe as his pick. you might get a little bit differen

david: do you think kono fits that? >> it was challenging to find.lot of twitter followers, and he can send messages very clearly, and ishida is coming up and saying things like in the bloomberg you just mentioned. all of them are different from prime minister suga, who was rather prudent in trying not to say too much. rishaad: will this represent more than a change in style, and if it is a change in substance what you think? international relations was looking at the relationship with the united states and particularly china, which is becoming more fraught and domestically with the economy. >> domestics will not be changed. any of them becomes at the prime minister they will try to put america first. china, there could be a nuanced difference. you mentioned that taiwan and china issue. as for the economy, there is more to be seen, but there could be some change. i cannot predict at this juncture. rishaad: a look at hardliners as well, a more nationalist bent. many of these seek to make some radical changes to japan's pacifist constitution? >> people

haidi: new poll suggests japan's vaccination minister kono is the favorite to replace prime ministerhide suga. he announced his official candidacy on friday at a news conference touching on everything from energy policy to vaccinations. >> [speaking foreign language] japan is no longer the top leader globally anymore. we must push and open the heavy door to make a step forward now. i want to work with all of you to make japan more competitive again. haidi: let's bring our politics reporter in tokyo. we now have three candidates officially in the running. what we know about the main policy differences between them? can we expect anyone else to join the race? reporter: although we do have these three candidates, kono, the most popular in the opinion polls, the former foreign minister, and the former internal affairs minister, who actually would be the first woman prime minister if she were to win the election. all three of them said that japan need some extra spending right now to get over the hit of the covid virus on the economy. but they also have mentioned several things that have

local media reports he is behind the vaccine minister kono. he is leading in public opinion polls, and with ishiba on his side, he should get a boost. but there those who do not get along with ishiba. he is a polarizing figure. so will have to be sure not to alienate members of his party. haidi: what do you see as the main policy differences? >> the three candidates, ko no, the former defense minister, they are yet to face off in a debate. we know they have different views on what economic and fiscal policy should look like as japan pulls out of the pandemic. a year ago we were at the end of the eight-year premiership of shinzo abe, and his namesake of abenomics, monetary stimulus and easing. one of them is his protege and is key to holding onto that 2% inflation target and making that a priority. kono on the other hand said growth generates inflation, not the other way around, indicating he is not bound to that target. that is a difference between the candidates. shery: sophie jackman with the latest on japan. in the u.s., house democrats are

we have this confirmation by japanese television that kono plans to run. thank you very much.re of russia's banking industry. we will speak to the chairman of russia's vaguest lender. this -- russia's biggest lender. we will talk about the role of sanctions and the ownership structure that they have. all of that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open. 30 minutes into the european trading day. japan is set for a new leader. prime minister yoshihide suga plans to resign after one year on the job. the topix closes at its highest level in 30 years. hsbc ceo says opportunities in china are too much to miss. it is jobs day, another banner report could push the fed closer to tapering. initial jobless claims fell to a low amid a recovering economy. the european equity markets caught in limbo. on any jobs day we expect to see not much movement, but we have big political movements in japan. tom: it feels like we are in a holding pattern. pointing to the japanese politics, that pushed the nikkei and the topix to 30 year highs. weakness around china on

that kind of went to kono. we are likely to see continued policy -- the same policies as suga on the monetary front as well as the fiscal front. there could be much more spending. kono talked about 30 -- kishida talked about ¥30 trillion right off the bat. francine: i know he is seen as more conservative. certainly the person he was standing against want about possible legalization of same-sex marriage and things like that. what do we know about policies intervening on again? where does he stand on that? stephen: again, we are probably going to see continued same policies that we saw from abenomics and suga. i guess you could probably say more of a continuity candidate like suga was a year ago. and geopolitically, it is an interesting one as well because he talked about his concern about the rise of authoritarianism in china. talked about taiwan being the next big threat facing the region. he is not necessarily a hawk like the third-place candidate, but still, there is concern about north korea. there is concer

the continuity replacement could be taro kono. also a foreign foreign and astir and an official candidate along with suga was blasted by the finance minister last year as being a good leader for peacetime, but not in troubled times. we are in troubled times in japan. we will see how this plays out. we have not heard from taro aso or shinzo abe. they will likely be the powerbrokers controlling the levers of whom they will back as the successor to suga. tom: i want to tap into your expertise across the region, and get your view on the implications for the broader region, notably japan's relationship with china. but other relationships in the region, the implications of this change. steve: geopolitically, it is important, but right now it is covid and domestic issues that will sway the election. if you look at these candidate, they have different opinions. potential candidates, i might say. you have ishiba, the former defense minister and defense agency head. he is quite the hawk, and considered a military geek. also taro kono, he ha

asahi considering job now, throwing his support behind kono. now it is up to him to say i will run, he's toying with us. he has not officially declared his candidacy, but the cards are lining up in his favor. he has four aces in his hand. will he fold or he play? haidi: the nikkei futures calling above and open 30,000, so he must be enjoying the prospect of new economic policies. what areas are we seeing this boost? david: that's another i did not mention. he's the leader among the business community. if he decides not to run, it throws things into disarray. in particular, green stocks yesterday surging as biomass power companies and clean energy solution companies were up considerably. why? kono wasn't the energy minister, he was the foreign minister and vaccine czar, but he is on record against nuclear power. if we change the page, we can see nuclear power companies also down, not sharply on that sentiment. the subject of nuclear power in japan is a sensitive one after what happened at fukushima. we could see a bit of a change in policy and t

compromise, but if you look at kono, he was the maverick.e had questions about nuclear power. on the others, the lead female candidate was more of the hawk and the conservative. really got a lot more boats than anticipated. was kishida-san the safe choice? >> you can put it that way. most lawmakers and many people, you know, the boat comes from ldp -- though vote comes from ldp lawmakers, rank-and-file members. kishida-san gained the votes most from lincoln -- rank-and-file members. people chose not necessarily extreme change. they want change, but in a comfortable manner. >> you have been a proponents of more females in government. will this -- what is this going to do? participation is still extremely low. >> right. president kishida is very positive about giving a chance to women. i'm expecting change in that regard. this election is showing that -- you know, two of four candidates are women. they have different ideas. the stereotype does not hold. i think of course the issue, mr. kishida is considering whether he would like to put this p

probably rising over this week over the top is caro kono. -- taro kono. he is widely seen as the most popular candidate for the populace and business community. he has by far the most twitter followers of all the candidates. he is the youngest at 58 years old whereas everyone else is in their 60's. he is an english speaker. he went to georgetown university. he is probably -- probably the most important factor of him is he is part of the faction -- the faction led by the deputy prime minister. that is what this election will come down to. factional fighting, if you will. you have the faction and his pick, and another faction led by the foreign -- the former foreign minister, who is also the first, aside from suga, the first declared candidate. he wants to spend trillions of yen in pandemic relief, in fiscal policy. he wants to keep monetary policy bold, as well, until the pandemic subsides, and then seek a more balanced approach. so they are considered the front runners. shery: we know the handling of the covid pandemic played a key role in prime minister

kono is the most popular candidate for the next prime minister. the front runner.the public. that does not always translate into becoming the leader. there's a lot of trading among the big factions within the party. there's still everything to pay for in the next three weeks, as to who will lend out on top in the end. kono does not necessarily have the backing of the function he belongs to -- the faction he belongs to. he will have to gather support from other factions. may be from younger members of parliament who want to see a more radical agenda. everything's able to change overnight in these kinds of elections. haidi: we are in the meantime seeing gangbusters sessions coming out of japanese equity trading. is this really optimism that we are going to see from new and beneficial economic policies, handling of the virus? there's concern that we are back to this revolving door leadership, right? >> we can't rule out the revolving door leadership. especially amid the pandemic. it is a very difficult situation to manage. if it is handled badly, that will reduce publ

do they want continuity with kono and kishida or something radical? i won't say radical.orry to say that. but japan has never had a female prime minister. you have two candidates. female candidates. haidi: pretty radical. >> for japan considered practiced cal. it would be interesting to see how this plays out. likely two different internal votes. the first vote and then an hour and a half later, or thereabouts, you get the results of the runoff which will likely -- likely come down to kishida and kono. the feel mail backed by shinzo abe could be the wild card here. haidi: and still the same liberal democratic party, right? the l.d.p. so how much of a change can we really expect in monetary or fiscal policy under a new prime minister? >> well, most economists we've spoken to don't expect really any -- what, fiscal policy -- monetary policy change. obviously we're battling with the covid pandemic. but monetary policy and fiscal policy, they -- right now, in japan, they're kind of hamstring. so we could see most economists predict more spending on the fiscal side to get thro

and compare that to taro kono.e was the public's favorite known as a political maverick who wasn't afraid to speak his mind and tear down bureaucratic barriers to get things done. he is extremely on social media. known to directly converse with the public on twitter where he has more than 2 million followers. ultimately, analysts said that kono's reputation as this outspoken maverick was too much of a risk, and the conservative party elders, party elites preferred the stable and safe choice of kishida. now, when he assumes prime ministership, he's going to have to contend with challenges including the pandemic, boosting japan's stagnant economy, balancing deep economic ties with china and growing concerns around beijing's military assertiveness. but a key issue, isa, is that it is unclear how long kishida can maintain power since before the time of prime minister shinzo abe's leadership, japan had churned through six prime ministers in six years. so the question is, is japan returning to this period of revolving do

kono is very liberal. kishida is center liberal. madame takaichi's center-right.e noda is very liberal. the voters, the party members and most of the politicians -- but the party members and politicians will respect the wishes of the voters. as we understand at this point, people are leaning to take more liberal lines than before. , but -- but not too literal -- liberal because that could ignite center-right enthusiasm. >> so -- >> that is something that many want. >> i am interested to see how you feel about this particular alliance. we are hearing the backers of both kishida and takaichi are set to cooperate if either are to go to a runoff. what do you feel about this arrangement? >> in the runoff, there could be realignment. there could be medications. that is what happens. this is -- elections. what happens in the ldp party. we are ruling conservative party. we believe in -- markets, open economy, free trade, and opportunity for all. there are variants within the party lines, but in the end there could be in the runoff a realignment of madame takaichi's group

so that is a big boost to kono. he needs to make sure to take that endorsement carefully because of the potential of him being poisoned among some excellence of the senior leadership of the ldp. rishaad: some people have likened this is a race between who is the blandest, if you like. [laughter] that's to be differences between the candidates. what are they? sophie: absolutely. so, suga, the man who will step down, sort of inherited and policies from shinzo abe. whoever comes next will have to differentiate whether there will be an abe part three, or something different. the foreign affairs minister is apology of abe, possibly a part three. she is big on abenomics, aggressive monetary easing and big stimulus. the other candidate also raises that flag of ethanol mix, saying that we need to stick to the 2% inflation target, when japan has been in deflation for many months. the minister for administrative reform, he says growth drives inflation and that is how it should be, not the other way around. so he may decide th

the move would bolster kono who leads opinion polls. singapore has not ruled out a return to tighter curbs as it increases mandatory testing to slow curve it -- to slow covid cases. it will ban social gatherings at workplaces from september 8. new infections in the community rose to more than 2400 cases last week, up from about 600 the week before. ho chi minh city is easing some virus measures but maintaining its stay-at-home order until at least of timber 15th amid vietnam's worst outbreak. the city will allow residents in areas with low case number two go to supermarkets once a week or access food takeaway services. about 80% of adult residents in vietnam's commercial hub have been vaccinated. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. rishaad: so on bloomberg markets, we have voices from two of southeast asia's worst-performing markets. indonesia is one of them. someone from pinnacle joins us, and

stocks in japan, utility names, we are seeing some of that sector gained ground, as kono speaks of theonization targets, the likes of texco jumping. shery: let's turn to regulatory risk in china as beijing's crackdown on various sectors can in you. the big question, is china's still investable? here is what some guest on bloomberg tv had to say earlier. >> i think china is investable. >> what is happening is data security is low, it is something we are still observing. >> in some ways these measures are making it favorable for investors. >> it is in economy we cannot live without. >> the contours of it are not entirely clear. >> they are moving toward favorite regulation, trying to create a level playing field. >> there are some investment opportunities. shery: in under an hour's time we get data out of china. our next guest has one of our lowest estimates for cpi and is also just below consensus on ppi. our guest joins us from hong kong. give us your estimates for inflation numbers and why. >> the market is anticipating our data for august due to the double whammy of flooding and the