joining me now is yael selfin, chief economist at kpmg uk. at this point the humanitarian but the economic effect will be heard around the world. janet yellen saying she does not expect an economic impact but still early days. yellow might hopefully the situation, we have seen energy prices going up a bit and situation, we have seen energy prices going up a bi- situation, we have seen energy prices going up a bit and we would ro erl prices going up a bit and we would preperly expect — prices going up a bit and we would properly expect them _ prices going up a bit and we would properly expect them to _ prices going up a bit and we would properly expect them to stay - prices going up a bit and we would l properly expect them to stay higher than otherwise as a result of that and then you have the flight to safe haven terms of the implication on markets as a result of it but apart from the fact it will also create uncertainty impact on trade and business decisions we do not expect a major impact at this stage. it seems to be there are lots of ifs

turning me to talk more about this is the global head of clients and markets for kpmg. you for being with us this evening. >> great to be here. thanks for having me. >> let's start with the issue of political uncertainty. respondents consider the greatest threat to business growth, but it did not feature at all in last year's survey. what happened in the last 12 months to change that? >> i think it is tied to how confident they feel about the global economy as well. we found that three out of four ceo's are still reasonably confident in longer-term growth prospects for the economy by starting to feel less certain about their own companies' perspectives. in the top risk, we see geopolitics faulting to number one of the top five. climate change dropping to number five and in between, things like emergency technology, operations and supply chain rounding out those top five. i believe we are seeing a manifestation of their concern about the threats facing their companies directly and turning more inwardly about how to navigate these risks. it is also interesting to note geo

the recruitment and employment confederation and kpmg found the number of permanent placements by recruitersto commit to hiring new workers. this comes as the imf forecast the uk will have the highest inflation and slowest growth next year of any g7 economy, falling behind the us, france, germany, canada, italy and japan. live now to tom stevenson, investment director at fidelity. good morning to you, tom. if i was running a business right now, i would think twice before i hire someone on a permanent basis, wouldn't you? absolutely ou basis, wouldn't you? absolutely you would _ basis, wouldn't you? absolutely you would and _ basis, wouldn't you? absolutely you would and it _ basis, wouldn't you? absolutely you would and it follows - basis, wouldn't you? absolutely you would and it follows on - you would and it follows on neatly from what simon was just saying about companies having to refinance their debts at much higher rates and that is giving them pause for thought when it comes to employing people. and these latest figures that you mentioned there are really very clear that the slowdown

let's get more with regina mayor, global head of clients & markets at the management consultancy kpmg iam i am global economic confidence, we see that ceos remain bullish about the economy. their confidence in their own comp any�*s ability is slipping. i their own comp any's ability is sli -|na. ~ their own comp any's ability is sliuina. ~ ., , slipping. i think that is where we are seeing _ slipping. i think that is where we are seeing some _ slipping. i think that is where we are seeing some of _ slipping. i think that is where we are seeing some of the - slipping. i think that is where we | are seeing some of the economic headwinds manifesting themselves in customer behaviour. another interesting finding is geopolitics jumped to the number one of the top five risks. it wasn't even in the top five last year, even though the war in ukraine was well under way. climate change dropped to number five and internal issues, like operations and supply chain and emerging tech, at the other that round at the top five. it is a different set of risks. we still see them being not so bullish, agai

>> there's a survey just released by kpmg about the feeling, the sentiment of ceos.t year they said -- 32% of them said within three years everybody would be back to the office. and now it's 67%. so, it doubled within years. you see it's not -- it's not -- we have not landed where we're going to be. if i can be disrupted, i think we should just stop counting the number of days we're back to the office. we just realizing it's about productivity. it's about sustainability. it's about responsibility as leaders. >> what about commercial real estate in general. everybody's been sort of the -- we've seen in the bank quarters that the provisions for bad loans have gone up around commercial real estate. everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop. we don't know whether it will have systematic risk to the economy. what's your take? >> we have heard this morning some regional banks talking about their situations. we see that they're tackling with that. we don't see major cat stroefic coming from there. we have to be patient. we don't like what's happening currently at all. but ag

have' of the civil service they have to get in mckinsey, they have to get manage the whole get in kpmgng. and you've got those thing. and then you've got those those those those consultant ses, those middle aren't middle managers who aren't trying costs down trying to keep costs down because really in because that's not really in their interests. think in their interests. i think in france, you've got some france, in spain you've got some proper in the civil proper engineers in the civil service they take state service because they take state projects . projects seriously. >> well, nobody apparently ever spoke who ran hs1 spoke to the man who ran hs1 about which is about how to do it, which is just extraordinary failure just an extraordinary failure going kelvin, are going back years. so kelvin, are we just incapable of building things cheaply and properly? we're . we're fine. >> for rishi, who >> thank god for rishi, who recognises that 36 billion is a hell of a lot of money and with a bit of luck and the following wind, none of that will be spent in the north anywhere. in the north o

it had been as much as 125 basis points of cuts that's gone away diane from kpmg the fed is likely toin a hawkish holding pattern as it weighs how much the rout in the bond market can dent the armor of consumers with so much savings still in their bank accounts earning interest the inflation outlook shows the fed does not hit they're not forecast to hit the target even into 2025 with something in the fed doing more to bring it down right now here are the numbers 365, about where we are right now, where we end the year according to the average 286, next year, down a bit the fed still having work to do which is where the higher for longer comes growth slow down that was going to hit the economy at any time this year, now forecast to hit next year. 0.73 is the one you want to look at right there i will tell you we had numbers like that for 2023 they did not come to pass. respondents on average see the stock market ending the year about where it is now, but notch something gains next year and rising by 13% by the end of 2025 carl pessimistic this year but maybe upside in years to come as

i mean, just this week kpmg was that's one of the consultancies named here just this week, kpmg was fined failure back. i think that was also back in 2018 or 2019. so you know, there's real questions over just how effective of these people being brought in from the outside really are when so much money is being spent on them. >> always wonder about >> you always do wonder about consultancies, don't you, because in the because you hear people in the city wonderful jobs with city getting wonderful jobs with consultancies and they're paid an fortune and you an absolute fortune and you wonder they wonder what they do. >> and all taxpayers money >> and it's all taxpayers money as well. >> well, know, it's all come >> well, you know, it's all come from us. >> and similar. >> and that's similar. >> and that's similar. >> there is a question, isn't there, if how do you give there, as to if how do you give money directly to these communities and make sure it is managed and spent in the way that it should be? yeah, absolutely. >> i mean, the un is obviously another one of those giant organisations

diane, the chief economist for kpmg was commenting on this in "the washington post," saying it's enough to knock me over with a feather. we've had the most aggressive credit tightening from the federal reserv since the 1980's, and guess what, the economy is accelerating. we really underestimated how much consumers would keep spending. billy in indiana on our republican line. go ahead, billy. caller: yes, i would just like to say that, you know, under the trump administration, we were all doing so much better in the united states and all over the world, really. we didn't have no wars going on. we had everybody pretty much in check. we haven't giving out money to everybody. we can't afford to give out any money. what happens when our social security money stops because of all the wasteful spending. we still ain't never recovered the $100 billion that come up missing from the pentagon. democrats just can't keep track of nothing. everything they do, everything biden's done so far has failed, he hasn't had one success in anything that he's done. i'm paying twice as as much at the store for e

diane, the chief economist for kpmg was commenting on this in "the washingtont," saying it's eno to knock me over with a feather. we've had the most aggressive credit tightening from the feresee since the 1980's, and guess what, the omy is accelerating. we really underestimated how much consumers would keep spending. billy in indiana on our republican line. go ahead, billy. caller: yes, i would just like to say that, you know, under the trump administration, we were all doing so much better in the united states and all over the world, really. we didn't have no wars going on. we had everybody pretty much in check. we haven't giving out money to everybody. we can't afford to give out any money. what happens when our social security money stops because of all the wasteful spending. we still ain't never recovered the $100 billion that come up missing from the pentagon. democrats just can't keep track of nothing. everything they do, everything biden's done so far has failed, he hasn't had one success in anything that he's done. i'm paying twice as as much at the store for every product that's

so 10% of foreign aid going through consultants like kpmg, pricewaterhouse coopers and of course, thefor example. well, this comes as international aid groups are warning they cannot deliver food and other basic services to the people in the gaza strip . now, people in the gaza strip. now, are we equipped as a nation to help provide aid and actually , help provide aid and actually, is israel within its rights to try to block aid into gaza at the moment? joining me now is defence editor and chief foreign affairs columnist at the telegraph is con coughlin. con, thank you very, very much. yeah what should the world be doing now it comes gaza? is now when it comes to gaza? is israel right, do you think, to be blockading it in the way that it is ? it is? >> well, think this is a very >> well, i think this is a very challenging situation all around , patrick, and certainly , you , patrick, and certainly, you know, in the past, aid has been diverted in gaza for other uses. and you made reference to pipes being used for makeshift bombs and everything else. i mean, i think if you just take a s

i don't have many consultant friends in kpmg and hawaii and the, the other great consultancy firms.n go abroad . they go abroad actually abroad. they go abroad actually outside of europe. they've always done very well . that always done very well. that doesn't add a single extra penny to sort out poverty challenges . to sort out poverty challenges. so harrogate or the north of england, the lost bits of broken britain which need jobs, which needs investment , which needs needs investment, which needs manufacturing. i mean, if rishi sunakis manufacturing. i mean, if rishi sunak is really going to tell manchester bev and andrew dead, you're not going to have your good and every other good train line and every other italy, germany, france , that's italy, germany, france, that's got connections between its big cities . well, he's welcome to cities. well, he's welcome to try and get votes in manchester. >> dennis you know what's striking when you look at the key players here at the conference, we've got kemi badenoch. we've got suella braverman . you know, we've got braverman. you know, w