alan krueger on our reverse expectations. alan krueger on bill gross' new neutral.eing with this idea. the guard at the imf pulling the imf for one or two years over to the new neutral. do you believe in the new neutral, or can we be more optimistic? >> i am on the optimistic side. the biggest scar from the great recession will be the smaller labor force, less investment in the u.s. from that new level, we will see continued expansion and growth. >> what drove the image -- what drama janetday, the image of yellen and christine lagarde. angela merkel it would have been great. >> it was a very substantive speech. i listened to it this morning and i was impressed with the depth that she went into with her speech. she made it clear that macro prudential relation is a first tool, as i think it should be, and when it comes to battling financial bubbles in the financial sector. i thought she could not have been more clear. >> its frame the debate. she believes that the fed cannot fix bubbles, right? >> i would not go that far. the fed is a major regulator. she talked about

it was an out liar, once you took that out, it proved the card and krueger results. anyway. negative impact on employment according to a ponderous of evidence is it is very very small. some of the reasons it is very very small is that when employers are subjected to a higher minimum wage it shocks them into tightening of the production process. instead of workers taking the 25 minute break instead of 15 minutes they make sure workers only take a 15 minute break. instead of -- i mentioned this earlier, it also can create any efficiency wage effect where -- when workers get a higher minimum wage, what my colleagues have shown is it reduces turnover among low-wage workers and a firm realizes workers are not going to just leave, there isn't going to be as much turnover there's higher incentive for them to train. this higher incentive to train will make the workers more productive, they will pay for themselves. anyway, am i done? >> i am keeping strict track of time and mary will have a chance to respond. you want to respond now or later? she will respond later. we will open up t

alan krueger.y important substances stuff or talk about what we were talking about on the break? >> i want to talk about the container storm i'm serious in a way. >> you are. we were talking michelle says that i saved you from her, what what you were going to have an ideological onslaught. >> it's a strong statement. >> how are we? we are fine, we are on the same page in a lot of things. >> you said my support for entrepreneurialship. we asked you, does the president, when you are meeting with him. he supports the private sector, entrepreneurialship. you say he is moderate in terms of all these things? >> i have been with him. we met with companies bringing jobs back to the u.s. the president said what can we do to help you bring more jobs back to the u.s.? nobody complained about regulation, nobody complained about taxes. they said we need better infrastructure and training. >> when they're not in the room, they all complain about it. >> what is the territorial system, what about our tax rate? eve

this is the latest video from krueger sightings. you can see bloody faces because there is an impala carcass lying there. there are five lions here trying to eat. and apparently the hyenas thought we want to jump in and the fight begins. >> those high-pitched squeals are coming from the hyenas. >> yes. they do sound like humans. nearly four minutes into this video, the hyenas finally give up like you know what? they're not going to share. now, that was at the krueger national park in south africa. and this video from juken, this is at the zulu game preserve also in south africa. let's just say this elephant, not exactly welcoming the humans here on a safari. but this elephant kind of reminds me of that old country grandmother when she's mad at you. this elephant goes and picks up a stick. >> it's always fun to see these animals up close. but the more you see these safaris, you start to feel bad because they're, like, stressed out. >> well, the elephant apparently was stressed out because it signals the other elephants and they join

newmark took the same information, the same timeframe that krueger data. they did a card screening and asked how many employees they had before and after the minimum-wage changed in both locations. what they found was a 4% reduction in the hours. and this is important because one way that an employer can react to minimum-wage other than raising prices is simply to cut back on their hours so that the cost stays the same. then there was another study or critique i should say of the krueger and card study that shows the philadelphia fast food employment was already trending downward robert princeton. you have one group going up and down you cannot make a good comparison. but this is -- i want to talk about all of these studies that show significant or don't i-india employment effects. you know, when we say that it's significant, what we mean is that there's a 95% chance that what we are seeing is reality and a 5% chance that it's not. you kind of expect tight% will show a serious effect and there's been a review of the literature done there's 102 studies publ

. >> bill gross and alan krueger will be with bloomberg "surveillance." the financial community was quieted last evening. jamie dimon told shareholders and employees that he has throat cancer, caught early, and it is curable. cohan has worked on wall street and written about the nation's capital merchant banks. his classic work is "house of cards." ofl cohan, your reaction when you heard about jamie dimon's illness? >> i think you put it very well. there was quiet across wall camet when this news across the table. obviously it is very scary for him and it does raise those questions of succession that you pointed out. it is great news for him that it is curable and that he can continue to work and lead jpmorgan, but obviously no one gets out alive and we all have to think about these things. >> the bigger picture here is that post-steve jobs, everyone is very concerned about how much is disclose when you have a -- a ceo who is so readily identified with the company. do you think that influence his thinking here? big problem with steve jobs, and he was so p

this video from the krueger national park in south africa. you got these tourists looking at all the crazy wildlife they can see. that is a water buff right there hanging out. look crouched over here behind these bushes, that's a cheetah. it's not just one cheetah. now, you see the cheetahs go after. there are several water bucks, but they target the one. >> oh, my god. >> now, the water buck gets away briefly. look at the people behind the camera. they're shocked at what they're witnessing. zoob oh, my god. oh -- he taez a dive into the water. the cheetah is not getting in the water to go after him. >> this is so sad, though, because as the water buck swimz towards this rocky island, his hoofs are slipping. now there's a crocodile. >> yes. are you kidding? >> oh, i see the croc. >> there's a crocodile now. not only has this water buck been a potential meal for cheeta cheetahs, now a crocodile is after this poor animal. >> there's a croc. there. that big splash. >> just as the crocodile is about to go after the camera buck, the guy's camera d

so "squawk box," our buddy joe kernen this morning, asking alan krub krueger, professor of princeton,economic adviser, how he thought immigration will affect the economy. >> immigration reform, tremendous missed opportunity. help in a number of respects. we're going to face a labor shoresage. look at demographics. we're going to be a labor shortage economy and we are facing demand constraints. >> now, maybe alan krueger is looking at the big picture, professor, but defending his views on immigration, or the administration's, because my big number today, 58 million -- that's the number of working-age americans that aren't working. so to think that the labor market is so tight that we need to look to defend bad immigration policy on this level makes zero sense. now, paul volker. so so suma cum laude, high inflation matter, as long as it's expected. his answer, sure does. if the market's stable, the responsibility of the government, have a stable currency. the stuff you're taught at princeton disturbs me. your teachers must be telling you if you got expected inflation, evy justs and it's

report,man before the alan krueger in the 7:00 hour. alan krueger of princeton.mberg surveillance. i'm tom keene. with the are scarlet fu and adam johnson. >> and our guest host, ethan harris from bank of america merrill lynch. we will join him shortly. but first, headlines. snapchat could bring alibaba of $10 million. -- $10 billion. snapchat turned down a $3 billion takeover offer from facebook a year ago. a japanese company gives sony a lift. its annualto avoid losses in the past year by shifting to content and mobile devices. and microsoft takes the wrapping off it first operating system. the update will be available next week, making it more android friendly. >> and watching the markets this morning, futures -13. some of theabout tensions that are out there. we will prepare for tomorrow's jobs report. our guest host, ethan harris, he is with bank of america merrill lynch. these are great and challenging times. dr. harris, is this to america? is there an america that is benefiting from 4% gdp and another that is being left behind? of thethe first years recove

alan krueger disagrees as to whether there's so much slack still left.sagreement to how much the fed can go without tightening. >> you nicely framed one of the two or three debates of right now. if we have a central-bank-induced great distortion, and if everything has gone up in value, at risk are those the ua shins that kruger and yell and get the math wrong? >> that is an excellent question and a timely one. what is happening here is, if the fed -- even if the fed believes there is going to be some slack and if they turn out to be wrong and inflation picks up, they have to tighten when the person on main street, the person who is not having big wage increases, still suffering from the situation in the interest rates go up and the economy tightens and the employment is hurt. that is the major reason why the debate is very important. because if the fed has to tighten because of reasons of not having enough slack and inflation pickup, then unemployment suffers and we go back into recession. that is also the risk of blowing the bubble up to big. because th

. >> the british wanted an iron grip over lands leading to the persian gulf, a kruegers -- crucial byway. with covers drained by -- coffers, they couldn't protect it. then colonial secretary, winston churchill headed to cairo and hammered out a deal that kept lebanon and syria under fresh rule and palestine as a british protectorat. trans jordan became a semi autonomous region ruled by abdullah seen here with t e. lawrence known better as lawrence of arab i can't. the greatest experiment involved mosul, baghdad and basra. they were corralled by britain into a new country, iraq, ruled by abdullah's brother, king feisal. >> he would rule for them, do the british bidding in iraq and, as a result, they would save themselves considerable expense of declaring iraq or messpotamia a full-blown protect offerate of the british empire. >> iraq served britain's economics but the country made little sense with the various groups hemmed within its borders who have chafed under baghdad's centralized rule. >> the map continued to evolve through the 20th century. as for iraq, it's monarchy was over throw

as alan krueger from princeton has, others have said folks who left the workforce are not coming back. this is key. the social policy question is, how hot do you need to run the economy? how much do wages need to go up to bring people back into the workforce and if ever they would come back. >> murph, you guys, as market participants, traders, invest herbs, have to take what michelle and steve said inkrezably more seriously given what's happening in the market? >> i lean towards michelle. the global pictures of more immediate concern to the markets. what steve's talking about as far as the fed goes if 4% gdp growth is our biggest problem, i'm not that concerned for the market. we know that the fed -- no. weis -- economy is getting enough steam so the fed can get out of the picture. i don't think any want the fed in there a longer amount of time. the better the news is on the economy, i'm looking at that as a positive. but when we have sanctions going on over in russia that are affecting numerous companies, that is going to put a major cap on the markets. we have to get through that ma

now aan krueger, professor of economic and public affairs at princeton. jobs are as much political as an economic issue in the country, i want to bring up a poll that ranks president obama number one in a category he does not want to be in. he is considered the worst era.ent of the postwar 33%new york post had him at . 33% of voters thought he was the since 1945.ent to be fair, george w. bush ranks second and jimmy carter at eight percent. perhaps not a surprise if you report.the jobs what do you make of this? >> the president came in facing the worst economic stance. roosevelt -- president obama is doing that, not as quickly as he would like and not getting much support from congress to help. we are at an upward trajectory. i'm confident when the polls are taken again in the future, the president will be on the list of s presidents in the postwar time. administration were betting on it. thought fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus would have a big impact on the economy. congress imposes constraints. thank god the republicans composed restraints. they ha

. >>>> critically, looking at alan krueger at princeton.e cost push inflation that could come a separate part of america or is it millions of people who have subpar wages? >> there is a bifurcation taking place. the people who are going to benefit, one of the best statistics i have seen -- last month, a record number of people resigned. in 2008. it was a long time ago. people losing their jobs, most likely to get other jobs. companies are not hiring. there is a huge supply of people who have not had jobs since the crisis occurred or have been partially employed. between thatsmatch skill set. people are being forced to get people from other companies, pay them more money. >> that is in a pretty nichey area, programmers. of skilla variety sets. the labor supply does not match labor demand. you will see aggregate wages rise despite it only benefiting a portion of the country. >> seeing this and other parts of the world, and the u.k. has its own employment conundrum. is that the case? the u.k. is a bit of a different story. that is a different

alan krueger will be joining me for on the spot analysis.om perez will be joining in as well. tomorrow at 8:00 a.m. ♪ >> it is 56 minutes past the hour. bloomberg television news "on the markets." i am scarlet fu. stocks around the world are in a rare treat -- are in the retreat mode. the s&p down 7/10 of 1%. foodsand whole disappointed investors. investors -- outside of equities and bonds, we got jobless claims this morning, pretty much holding to the lowest in eight years, adding to yesterday's second quarter gdp report that was stronger than anticipated. prices are down and yields are up. the u.s. dollar is little changed right now, but it is headed for the biggest monthly gain in more than a year on the stronger data. a cousin of the stronger dollar, you are seeing declines in crude oil -- because of the stronger dollar, you are seeing declines in crude oil. in legg mason's turnaround effort. joining me now is bloomberg -- s' they were hit particularly hard during the financial crisis. why? >> they had a star stock picker who was known t

. >> writing in "the wall street journal" -- >> alan krueger pushed against this. >> he did. >> he reallyhed against this republican angle. >> is it so bad? is raising the minimum wage just lifting people out of poverty? >> it is questioning whether it targets people who need it the most. >> we should raise minimum wage. it is the right thing to do. the question is, how fast? technology has taken a lot of those jobs away. >> the tide may have turned in ukraine. still no word from moscow. we will discuss the latest development with our guest ian bremmer of the eurasia group. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." 17068. up after longwake weekend. new york city looking at a bull market. we welcome all of you. this is "bloomberg surveillance." johnson and brendan greeley. scarlet fu is off today. there is a shift after months of ineptitude, ukraine the latour --ces are dancing yeast military forces are advancing east. writing oneley international. let me start with vladimir putin. what would you propose would be his response to the land being taken bac

whether i haven't looked at the cbo report but our guest host that used to work in the white house alan kruegerf the biggest benefits of an immigration bill is to allow many, many more people to immigrate here and then they can become consumers, and that will help businesses, and that will help gdp. and i can think of the flip side, though, there's a lot of services needed that we give people, as well. i mean would it be a net positive in terms of spurring consumer demand? >> the concern is not legal immigration. it's all this illegal immigration. and you've got to do things in the right order. you first have to secure the border, deal with the humanitarian crisis, return these young people who are streaming over the border to their home country. create some confidence that we have control of our borders, before you are able to then go on to things like making sure that we enforce workplace law. we have entry/exit at all of our international airports and seaports. >> but the spirit of the question is, is immigration good or bad for the united states? should we welcome more people or not? >> leg