you know this, paul krugman.dp fell more under bill clinton than any other president in 30 or 40 years. >> and the cold war hadding? to do with that, you know. >> government spending went down and the growth of the economy went up. >> thank you, gentlemen, for a feisty debate. next on gps, fewer than 40% voted in the election. low turnout is the norm in america but it's very low compared to other countries. we have a fix when we come back. >>> if you miss a show, go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my itunes podcast. the bud light party believes in change. that's why bud light has a new look... ...and we want to share it with everyone... jackpot! still the same refreshing bud light. with a new look. when this busy family... ...got a cracked windshield... ...their dad went to the new safelite-dot-com... ...and scheduled a replacement... ...in just a few clicks. with safelite you don't have to miss a thing. y'all did wonderful! thank you. (girls sing) safelite repair, safelite replace. >>> now for our "what in the w

. ♪ scarlet: we are here with paul krugman.eservethe federal thinking about a rethink of monetary policy. federal reserve know when it comes down to it? much. there is an accumulation of evidence that monetary policy is pretty ineffective. we came into this thinking monetary policy at zero rates was ineffective, then qe, then negative rates, which i have to admit i did not think was possible, but it is not actually doing very much. you have negative rates in europe and they still can't move inflation. massive qe, how much good did that do? so it looks as though we are going back to square one. it was that the only thing you could do to credibly promise higher inflation, and only by changing, creating the impression of a regime change even after recovery, that was he only way monetary policy was going to get traction, and we are most of the way back to that view right now. scarlet: was the president of the san francisco fed correct in saying wishes at higher inflation targets. that for aeen for while. i went to the ecb research

that is what krugman said.ry, by the way, if treasury rates go below 2%, i had brenda brian with me yesterday. we are not interested in bonds below 2%. we hoard cash. jeremy: i would not be surprised. manus: where are we on the fiscal debate? that seems to be the new buzzword. jeremy: kruger was saying monetary policy can do anything. maybe, but it needs to have a complementary fiscal atmosphere and that is the problem we have had in europe, in the u.k. over the last five or six years. it has not been the same in the united states and that is why maybe the u.s. economy has rebounded a lot faster than other members. the fiscal atmosphere was not as tight. they were not so focused on austerity. manus: would hillary be a spender? she is just not saying. jeremy: she is not saying it, but i think the pressure she would get from the left side of the party would push her into using the checkbook a little bit more. trump is going to be a spender. manus: he's going to make america great. the minutes this evening, i just

pretty far to be the right of paul krugman.d imagine his dream economic scenario would not [indiscernible] i will be eagerly awaiting than interview tonight. scarlet: 4:00 p.m. eastern time, paul krugman. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is :00 and london. i am shery ahn. i am vonnie quinn. welcome to bloomberg markets. >> we are live and bloomberg world headquarters over new york over the past -- next hour. covering stories from new york, las vegas. -- here is what we're watching. stocks are pulling back on comments from fed officials. mgm ceo is a lifelong republican, but why is he now endorsing hillary clinton for president you go we will talk to the business leader about why he is crossing the aisle in just a moment. >> with success comes more challenges. the ceo joins us for professionally -- professionally and personally

we asked paul krugman for his take on growth in this environment.is effective. we came into this thinking that it at zero rate was ineffective. then came the qe and a rates, which i didn't think was possible, but it turns out these are all things that central banks can do but it isn't doing very much. scarlet: that was paul krugman on "what you miss -- what'd yo u miss." matt: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ this is "bloomberg markets." i'm matt miller. let's head over to the markets desk, where julie hyman the latest on the equity market retreating again. julie: basically i want to take a bit of a tour going into the fed minute release in less than 10 minutes now. let's start with hans. we aren't seeing much -- let's start with bonds. we aren't seeing much changing here. overall, not seeing much movement. as for the u.s. dollar, we have ,een watching that as well rebounding today after three days of losses. what's interesting is that yesterday we saw yields move up but the dollar did not on the back of those bill dudley comments that september was a possibi

mark: paul krugman says monetary policy is not doing that much. you had william doubt a few days revisiting theut framework. that may be the theme of jackson hole, revisiting the framework. all of these people questioning whether their approach has been effective, how soon might we see this trickle through? trickling through has to be through the political class. if we are going to have a fiscal policy that is coherent and try to call clement what monetary policy has done -- complement what monetary policy has done, it has to be something the politicians embrace. depending on who is elected in november and who ends up winning the house and the senate, there is potential for there to be some changes in fiscal policy. both parties are talking about spending more on infrastructure. some changesneed in fiscal policy. to seeow, we are trying exactly when that can happen and what actually would happen. sure. much appreciated. great conversation. scarlet: coming up, is this still a heated bull rally? we show how the stock market is luring more investors.

there was a specific attack on pop krugman -- paul krugman.bar high for hillary clinton to say really, this is on a level we have not seen before from previous candidates? >> that is right. not only is the bar high, the democrats are running for seats in congress and are not completely on board with hillary clinton's strategy because they want to tie their opponents to donald trump and say he is very much a firebrand that represents the republican party. they want to link these people in congress who are struggling in tight races, they want to make it very clear that all trump represents the republican party. a thorny strategy for hillary clinton but something she thinks she needs to do to win the presidency. >> speaking of trump, we heard more from him about his immigration views today. tell us more about that. it was just kind of one meaningful change and it related to the mass deportation aspect. expecting to hear much more from donald trump on wednesday where he says he will lay out a major speech about illegal immigration. for the last fe

today, new york times op-ed columnist pull krugman talked about needing investments in everythi to transportationcording to the "wall street journal" wall street is urging governments to invest in big ticket projects now while interest rates are low. joining us is the writer of the "wall street journal" article harrison. welcome. your piece this morning was interesting. while peop are talking about infrastructure projects, people are urging state and local governments to borrow. what do the numbers say and why? >> state and local governments were really, really hard hit during the recession. they had to make drastic budget cuts that were really painful. now that things are slowly getting better, they are still skittish about borrowing a lot of money. borrowing my state and local governments, the issuance of municipal bonds is off somewhat from the prerecession pace. they are now around a little shy of $150 billion a year which is quite a bit lower than it was before. there are still some anxiety and nervousness on the part of the gover issuing new bonds and -- >> i guess it's not just the governm

they will talk with paul krugman at 4:00 eastern. you do not want to miss the conversation.ave a look at the data. index down 1%. below $95. this is after phil dudley made remarks about september and potential rate hike. the yen above 100. back to 99. crude oil features up 2%. 74 basis points. ♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i am vonnie quinn. julie hyman looking at stocks that are bucking the downward trend. who is gaining? julie: we have deal activity that is accounting for some of the gains on this sleepy august. one of them includes a big deal.m industry they make uniforms for various companies. gnk is rising. there is a potential deal that would create the largest supplier of industrial gas. linda confirming they are in talks. a deal may not result. this is how the share traded in germany. then there is another potential deal with gnc or general nutrition centers as it was known in the retail business. the shares getting a kick up after the company is expected to start the sales process next month and could get bids from various chinese buyers. we are looking at na

alix: we had paul krugman on talking about the effectiveness of the policy.hat monetary policy is ready ineffective. i did not figure was possible on it turns out, there are all these other things that central banks can do but it is not doing much. becausevish long-term you cannot actually do that much going forward. >> you cannot. mystery weig confront as we head toward the minute. really important that these the fed views on july 27, before the second month of job growth in excess of 200 and 50 cap -- to much of 50,000. he speaks at 1:00 p.m. this afternoon. >> thank you for joining us, erik schatzker. you tune in and get live coverage of the minutes here on bloomberg television. is, we talkquestion about labor inflation, citigroup winds up pointing out, the data dependency is really mushy. we do not actually know what the data is anymore. >> a huge problem. the fed president has been out right dovish and said there will be a rate hike for the next two years. when he sat down a week later in london, he said we've got a credibility problem. now looking at th

tolor: krugman spoke bloomberg tv.angeles, a wildfire has forced more than 80,000 people to flee. the fire forced a shutdown of part of interstate 15, leaving drivers stranded four hours. and a leaked document could make relations worth between germany and turkey. according to an internal estimate, germany views turkey as a central platform for terrorist groups. no response yet from turkey. president suspended dilma rousseff has appealed to senators less than two weeks before her impeachment trial. she is accused of using accounting tricks to hide a budget deficit. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts countries.n 120 i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you. we want to focus more on brexit, with the u.k. labor market claimant counts showing more strength than we thought. we also have a great report by bloomberg saying that the bank of england inflation forecast, out 10 days ago, it is are you looking stale. let's get back to richard turnill, chief investment strategi

tom: different economist, paul krugman has a primal screen to go back to simpler economic models to moverom the modern mumbo-jumbo back to simpler the realre hoped into economy. the debate at jackson hole and the debate at the fed, does it need to go back to simpler models that you taught years ago at m.i.t.? >> we do love simplicity. - dsguestion is, dst - models and the expectations matter. those that are more traditional that may be very big. the basic model that the fed is actually large and quite complicated but the structure is that you could explain to economic students. say what i would a lot oflly, i saw economists talking to each other at jackson hole. when we look at negative rate that youctivity mentioned, i don't see the economists addressing the dysfunction to the financial system. within the debates you are having for september and december, are you sensitive and aware to global finance and global thinking having to deal with negative interest rates? we are sensitive to what is going on. one hears and breathes about and talks about. what is happening in japan for .nstance

. ♪ scarlet: don't miss paul krugman tomorrow where we will be discussing the presidential election.rning u.k. cpi, 4:30 a.m. we get the hard data on what happened to the u.k. economy after brexit. joe: a half hour later, home depot earnings. joe: at 8:30, we get the u.s. .pi energy expected to rise 2.3% from last year. scarlet: thanks so much for watching. joe: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: with all due respect to he is back, baby. >> nobody doubts that i mean what i say. that -- they doubt all that it say think. let's state the obvious. just listen. that boy, he married up. sorry, guys. [laughter] >> i became the obama

. >> robert: and offends a lot of people, but nonetheless -- >> evan: but fan krugman has written nice things about him. i mean, he's got weird fans on aspects of his program. >> robert: well let me make it clear, i'm not a fan. >> evan: you're not a fan. [laughter]. >> robert: no. i think that the problem, the fundamental problem is that when so many people are economically stressed, when their incomes have not gone up, when they're working harder than ever, they're worried their kids are not going to do better, they can be attracted either to an authoritarian character who says, i'll do it. don't worry, i can make any deal. you know, just trust me. the kind of, you know, erich fromm "escape from freedom". or they can be attracted to a reformer, a fundamental reformer who says we are out to strengthen democracy and that's what we are doing and what we must do. >> evan: in your mind, trump is in the first camp. >> robert: i would say he's squarely in the strong man camp. and historically that kind of authoritarianism is very dangerous for democracy. it's dangerous for the public in gen

whol laureate paul krugman spoke frankly about what he sees as the limited effectiveness of monetary does the federal reserve when it comes down to monetary policy in a low growth, low rate environment? i have seenexcept any chelation of evidence that monetary policy is effective. we came into this thinking monetary policy at zero rates was ineffective. then along came qe, then can negative rates. i didn't think that was possible. there are other things that the central banks can do but it's not doing much. you have negative rates in europe. you can't move inflation off. you have massive qe. how much good in that do? it looks as if the things -- we may be going back to square one, which is where we started the discussion 18 years ago. dealing thing you can do was to hire -- promise higher inflation in the longer run. changing and creating the impression of a regime change, even after recovery, that was the only way monetary policy would get traction. we are most of the way back to that the right now. >> we got this note from john williams who lit up the possibility for what is rethin

you know this paul krugman, spending increased under obama.nment spending went down and the growth of the economy went up. >> thank you gentlemen for a feisty debate. next on gps, fewer than 54% of americans voted in the last election, low turnout is the norm in america, but it is very low compared with other countries, we have a fix when we come back. >>> don't forget if you misa show, go to cnn.com/fareed for my i-tunes podcast. lepe's foods is a locally owned here in santa rosa. as a small business, we're always looking to save money, and pg&e was able to help us. i help the small businesses save money and energy. it feels great. we looked at their lighting, their refrigeration system, and with just those two small measures, they were able to save a good amount of money. i was shocked. i couldn't believe that i could save $1,500 a month. with the savings that we get from pg&e, we're able to pass it on to our customers. it's pretty awesome. learn how your business can save at pge.com/businessenergycheckup. together, we're building a better c

prize-winning economist paul krugman. this is bloomberg. ♪ hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes.ace has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. scarlet: you're watching blue -- bloomberg markets. let's get to the headlines. mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. mark: hillary clinton's campaign says her transition to the white house if she wins in november. the unveiling of the transition project marks and intensifying of preparations that began months ago. a new wildfire has a rep did in the mountainous area of southern cal one in your interest rate. the main highway to a vegas. you are looking at live pictures now, san diego county department spokeswoman tells the associated p

up, nobel laureate paul krugman who spoke frankly about what he sees as a limited effectiveness of monetary what does the federal reserve really know when it comes to monetary policy and the economic outcome in a low growth, low rate environment? >> really not much, except that i think there is an accumulation of evidence that monetary policy is pretty ineffective. we came into this thinking monetary policy at zero rates was ineffective, that along came qe, and along came negative rates. all these, there's other thing central banks can do, but is not actually doing very much. you have negative rates in europe and they still can't move inflation off. you have massive qe. it looks as if the things that -- we may be going back to square one, which is when we started this discussion 18 years ago, the only thing you could do with it was to credibly promise higher inflation in the longer run that was credibly promise to be responsible, and that only by changing, creating the impression of a regime change that would change what you do, even after recovery, that was the only way monetary policy wou

ironically there i agree with a guy like krugman but i don't agree with krugman on saying that the democrat -- that the party government should have a say. you should not have a say in how manufacturing productivity operate. a government should sort of leave that part alone. but the government you must have fiscal stimulus. and we need that today. you must bring back jobs. we can't keep going sending texts to each other. i mean, that's sort of simplistic. everybody you walk in on the street are out there sending, you know, text messages. so that's like saying the family, you know, you got a family that's a wealthy family for a while and all it does is keep buying m ining mazaratis, t sit around the pool and play. you can't have that. i've said enough. >> no, it's okay. the next program, "power lunch," has been very generous with their time in giving us an extra ten today. i'm going to let you run. but you think trump's going to win in november, still? >> i'm very hopeful, yes. i think if he sticks to what he did yesterday, i believe he will definitely win. if he doesn't, hey, i agree with y

we have had a lot of the krugman over the last couple of years.verybody suffered in 2008 mini economy tanked and we are all calling out of that. it took a little bit longer. i'm very proud of that. the mullahs are not doing well. they have a lot of new restaurant and cleaned stores with no big department stores but the other thing that is interesting as we are getting loft apartments. it would go but it's not -- it's been a surge of both. there's actually two separate contractors right now downtown. that is good because it is mostly the younger professionals and others which you are obviously looking or coming to get the younger people back here and the jobs to come back here that we been working on. it wonderful piece of property to house the ymca and it was sold to the city and it was made development ready. go get high rise their. they are still in the stages of working on the site plan that they should be started by the first with four to five stories high. so bring a lot of people in town, to. kind of redeveloping ourselves are reinventing ou

we spoke to paul krugman of the effects of monetary policy on the economy, and despite unprecedentediments, the effects, he says, have been limited. >> i think there's an accumulation of evidence that monetary policy is pretty ineffective. he came into this inking monetary policy was an effective and then along came qe and turns outates -- there are all these other things that central banks can do but doing very much. ritchie still with us. has monetary policy run its course? >> i don't think so. there are tools that are open but at th the question is if they use them. creation,mes to money i think it is a question of where you decide to put that in the impact it might have on inflationary trend we have seen purchases of financial assets and the question of whether you trade that money directly into the economy -- it's that rubicon that has yet to be crossed the which is certainly an option and one that is perhaps coming closer. the factle talk about that we are moving toward a fiscally dominated environment. if you were the new chancellor, looking at what has happened with the yield

as an economist, i don't exactly agree with it, but someone who wrote about it in the 1990's, paul krugman, talked about factor accumulation. what happened with china in 1980, 10% of the population was urbanized. today it's 54%. you have a massive transfer from the farms to the cities, from low productivity areas to a much higher productivity area, service and manufacturing. then you had what we call capital accumulation. the chinese have spent -- [laughter] 50% of gross domestic product on fixed asset investment enormous , capital accumulation. it has accounted for a lion's share of their economic growth. their exports in 2000 accounted 2% -- for 2% of total global exports. today it is 12%, and that's not going to rise much faster. the market and the world economy won't allow it. so that -- so the two major economic engines, those two things expired. in economics, we call it "factor accumulation." you can generated easily in any country as long as you have political stability. and they've had political stability. it, thedoubt about chinese communist party is incomplete power. in complete

the borrow and invest, that's like paul krugman. >> this is populism, donald trump's populism which worries why they think that, you know, maybe he has some appeal to blue collar swing voters in rust belt states and democrats who really do believe that we haven't spent enough and invested enough in this country. he does risk losing some republicans but that part of donald trump's message is probably going to resonate. what you will hear hillary clinton talk about today in michigan, he's for that, but also for giant tax cuts for the wealthy. that's not such a great idea. >> so david, i mean the question here to you is, she supports massive infrastructure spending as well. she also, though, wants to raise taxes on the wealthy to help pay for it. so is she the more fiscally conservative candidate? >> well certainly from a budget standpoint, moody's analytics said the clinton plan would not add to the deficit or debt and that is significant. so yes, in that sense, if you're both pro-jobs, pro-working class, pro-infrastructure spending but care about deficits, hillary clinton measures up better

so they don't work and even paul krugman, the gop hating "new york times" columnist as a demagogue.most protectionist republican president. doing it for campaign purposes. would you say i can't take that stuff on trade. i can't handle that. we are you coming from here? >> as i said, he beat a good, bad and ugly. she is as bad as donald trump is not because of bernie sanders on trade. to raise taxes and impose new regulations. hasn't made any criticism of obama's policies with the first economic recovery. i just don't like this anti-free trade nonsense that donald trump is telling people they can bring back jobs when in fact the reason these jobs are very complicated. most of it has to do with higher costs, labor costs, taxes, regulations and things like that. >> we hear you and we will have you back on the show. that's very important. all the conservatives i speak to, trade is the sticking point. they don't like protectionism. i hear it all the time. coming up in a hard rate. you know how that can be. come back real soon. look at that. a dolphin snatching a woman's ipad )-right-pare

you know when you can give a nobel prize to milton freedman and paul krugman, it's not exactly like a medicine or physics where you actually know something. it's chemistry or medicine where it's a factual. this is like, how about the nobel peace prize. how about that baby. that's for what you're going to do. >> i know for what you didn't do. >> jimmy carter, i think al gore won one. >> so, i'm not supposed to egg you on. >> who said that? >> yes, you egg me on. anyway, earnings. alert home improvement retailer lows out with quarterly earnings. 1.31 a share. also missed forecast in same store increase of 2% was only half of what analyst predicted. that stock is down 3%. bryan nagel. he is glad he has a job to cover. it's not steel. he's glad he's not covering the steel industry. on today's economic agenda, weekly mortgage applications. also watch the eia weekly oil inventory number at 10:30. in more earnings news, retailers. we've got more reporting today. this is the strange way that we people report. we get everybody else on a normal calendar year and retailers because of christmas o

isn't it weird that the krugmans, the left, they all want zero interest rates, and then there's me andat -- that seems to be -- how are interest rates somehow a political, you know, litmus test? because they are. so many things are a litmus test. i don't know who to blame all this division on. i don't know. i really don't, the media. the divider in chief that we have in -- i don't know. anyway. still to come, tennis goes high-tech. the u.s. open will be featuring smart courts for players. a closer look at the technology is straight ahead. check out the futures at this hour. (speaking japanese) oh watson, youjase isery good. thk you. (speing japane) exactl i can dersnd nua ntext d idiom sen lanagesapane) top companies all over the world with erying from retail solutions, tbankg, top companies cyber security.ld (saking japanese) >>> tennis is going high-tech. as you walk the grounds of the billie jean king national tennis center at this year's u.s. open starts monday, you may notice two smart courts. these courts are rigged with multiple cameras to capture and help analyze a player's on-