>> well, i think that's the reason paul krugman cannot be totally ignored. feels like it's getting worse. auto sector feels like it's getting worse. there's leverage in the system. that's the big difference. you're not going to see banks get disrupted like they did in 2008. liz: as we finish up, robert said these economists have to go big or go home. one great call and they are known forever for that. what if it's a bad call? he had a bad call saying the markets would implode if donald trump were elected and that has not happened. >> yeah, that really worked against him. i would have to push back on what robert's saying a little when he says there's no leverage built into the system. there's a lot of leverage, just not on bank balance sheets this time. so the banks are in a lot better place but a lot of those fund managers, a lot of folks who just have money in these fund managers, they've got a lot of debt built in there and a lot of leverage. so that's still in the system. there still is some danger there. i don't think we are completely out of the woods.

i think professor krugman is engaging in wishful thinking. look at another chart which shows three things. kathleen: it has the balance sheet which the fed has been reducing. the balance rate which is rising, inflation just under 2%. is the fed close to the point where they can't and should say this is it? we have done all we need to do, we don't need to hike rates anymore. what would you tell the fed to do if you were still there? bob: i think the balance sheet is over emphasized in terms of its importance. it is leading the balance sheet runoff. the question is how large should it be? if it followed policies that it did in the past, trying to keep the currency to gdp ratio constant, then you would be looking at a balance sheet from a currency outstanding perspective would be about $1.8 trillion. there is another $700 billion related to other kinds of deposits, foreign deposits at the fed and so on. if you start to add all of that up, you could get to a balance sheet close to $3 trillion and that would be sort of a neutral balance sheet. the

us constitution is unconstitutional to protest and be against because they're nouriel roubini paul krugman and. those guys are anti american well beyond america max because in fact though the us constitution enshrines our rights they they don't grant us rise they just note our inalienable rights all humans are in doubt at birth with these inalienable rights whether they be in venezuela or saudi arabia or america and that is what bitcoin is establishing is a return to national law that all whether you are born in saudi arabia or qatar or egypt or venezuela or america or anywhere in your adult the framers. made note about when they created the constitution that it was a reference to natural law yes so getting back to the top of the show the big loser will be the us dollar the biggest of the biggest of the nonfunctioning terms of these it is filled with censorship increasingly so i want to say about your text is free speech text to speech and that is of course how this entire sector of cryptocurrency started how big was founded was in the battles of the cypherpunks with p.g.p. and guaranteein

>> talking to paul krugman >> i will tell you about it afterwards.x," and recent polls showing that the voters want to level the playing field and they want the lawmakers to raise taxes on the wealthy we will debate it after the break if that is really what america wants. and gregory meeks is also going to join us for the possibility of another government shutdown. that is coming up. who says our bank isn't tech enough? everyone, look at your phones. the design thinking, the digital engineering, security, blockchain, and we will be first to market! yes. when we do we launch? unfortunately, in 2 or 3, hours. why the delay? cognizant is helping banks use digital technologies at scale to advance speed to market. your daily dashboard from fidelity. a visual snapshot of your investments. key portfolio events. all in one place. because when it's decision time... you need decision tech. only from fidelity. you need decision tech. i found a companyeans to who believes in me.rt. they look out for me. and they help me grow my career. at comcast it's my job to

paul krugman was talking to us earlier about interest rates and the recession.ld is worse off now than in 2007. do you agree with that? not.: no, i do we have learned a lot and the is more strongly capitalized, it is better regulated, it is better supervise. it is true that some of the , some of thewe had ammunition we had before the to deal withoduced the crisis. tool,y cases, the fiscal the degrees of freedom are less, the monetary policy tool, we have used it for practically 10 years and therefore, you have less flexibility. is it likely we see a u.s. recession this year and if the fed does not have the tools, what does that mean to where we end up? angel: i do not see a recession in the united states. the united states is one of the economies that is doing better and that the same time, what the fed has done, is to be evidence-based which they said they would do and they are doing it. in thesee a slowdown economy, then, of course, you go slower in terms of the increases in the interest rates. be 2 and you, may are having this healthy vigorous job creation. t

sides noncompliance from moscow a claim that the krugman denies. brushes has jeopardized the united states' security interests and we could no longer be restricted by the treaty while russia shamelessly.

many guests wait in, starting with the nobel prize-winning economist paul krugman.yousef gamal el-din he's expecting a recession to hit u.s. economy. ♪ >> it seems pretty likely. there seems to be accumulation of smaller problems, and then the underlying backdrop is that we have no policy response. the fed can't cut rates very much. space, if vast fiscal we were prepared to use it, but it is hard to see that the current leadership will respond in any kind of nimble way. so yeah, i think we will have a recession. >> when you look back to the last crisis and compare it to the possibility of a crisis now, is the u.s. in the world in better shape? >> we started -- we came into the last crisis with interest rates above zero but lots of room for interest rate cuts. we came into the last crisis with public debt essentially lower, which i don't think is a big factor objectively. we came into the last crisis with pretty remarkable leadership. hank paulson -- i think we are in much worse shape, and we probably don't have a crisis of that magnitude about to hit us, but we are

but this is something to consider going forward given the washing signs. >> full disclosure, paul krugmany track record for this is bad. at least he was out with that. >> you think. david: we have to move ochicago mayor rahm emanuel wants his cash strapped city to give away money, now one 2020 hopeful is pushing a similar message to voters, will handouts help out? .. jerry reed singing "eastbound and down" ♪eastbound and down. loaded up and truckin'♪ ♪we gonna do what they say can't be done♪ ♪we've got a long way to go ♪and a short time to get there.♪ ♪i'm eastbound, just watch ole bandit run♪ whatever party you've got going in the back, we've got the business up front. our grandparents checked zero times a day. times change. eyes haven't. that's why there's ocuvite. screen light... sunlight... longer hours... eyes today are stressed. but ocuvite has vital nutrients... ...to help protect them. ocuvite. eye nutrition for today. [♪] david: chicago mayor, rahm emanuel, wants his cash-strapped city to give chicagoans $1,000 a month to help break the poverty cycle in the city. andrew yang is p

liz: here is "new york times" liberal columnist paul krugman. he tweeted right after president trump was elected. nothing policy can do will bring back those lost manufacturing jobs. the service sector is the future of work but nobody wants to hear it. here is some more. since trump was elected stocks added $7.1 trillion in market wealth. the jobs report 304,000 jobsn in january. the president added $1.5 million in his first two years. democrats will say these trends started on obama's watch. >> you are seeing a response to the tax cuts and reducing the regulatory burden. that's driving the good economy we have now in terms of gdp growth and job growth. but look at the wage growth. 3.2%. that means it's hitting people in their pocketbook where it counts. >> nearly 500,000 manufacturing jobs were added in the president's first two years. but to your point about the pushback the president, six times what obama did the last two years. president trump added 2 manufacturing jobs for every one federal, state or local government job. obama created five

we will hear from paul krugman.

i was back and the currency to keep a lid on the monitor is ation the economy as long as as paul krugman says there are men with guns to go out there and defend the dollar then gold been on the back foot but now that the dollars looming in the global order is to send degrading and the rise of bitcoin is challenging a lot of money is going back into gold in uncertain new six seven eight weeks. into a new all time highs and twenty nineteen as you predicted as i predicted as everyone press always asked what we think now many revolutions of course happen with men with guns you see the american revolution the french revolution the russian revolution and you had men with guns and weapons and well in the case of friends and they had to overturn a system that was around sometimes for hundreds of years the fear out revolution only began in one thousand nine hundred seventy one after five thousand years of goals ruling the world and then we have this revolution and it is becoming increasingly more reign of terror in order to back it up. these guns so i think in a way because when is the counter re

the incumbent right and the term aggregate demand is what's used by the keynesians like the paul krugman the nouriel roubini and jerome powell or janet yellen or ben bernanke who believe that the way to manage an economy is to focus on aggregate demand instead of competition there and see competitive they don't like competition they think it's causes quote losers instead they focus on aggregate demand by printing trillions and trillions and trillions of fake fia money the same way fog off farmers in france forced ducks to eat. grain until their livers are extended and then they're harvested for their livers americans are being harvested by the health system for their health their bad livers their bad health are being harvested by the obamacare american health industry after the. valar of forest aggregate keynesian nonsense in the form of money trillions so the orthodox thinking that would be found in the economist who are hired by the federal reserve bank find in the literature on paper low interest rates should encourage more what they found by looking at actual model the structures of

i was back and the currency to keep a lid on the monitor is ation the economy as long as as paul krugman says there are men with guns to go out there and defend the dollar then gold been on the back foot but now that the dollars looming in the global order is to send degrading and the rise of bitcoin is challenging a lot of money is going back into gold in uncertain new six seven eight weeks. into a new all time highs and twenty nineteen as you predicted as i predicted as everyone press always asked what we think now many revolutions of course happen with men with guns you see the american revolution the french revolution the russian revolution and you had men with guns and weapons and well in the case of friends and they had to overturn a system that was around sometimes for hundreds of years the fear out revolution only began in one thousand nine hundred eighty one after five thousand years of goals ruling the world and then we have this revolution and it is becoming increasingly more reign of terror in order to back it up with these guns so i think in a way because when is the counter

was back and the currency to keep a lid on the monitor is ation of the economy as long as as paul krugman says there are men with guns to go out there and defend the dollar then gold been on the back foot but now that the dollars looming in the global order is to send degrading and the rise of bitcoin is challenging a lot of money has gone back into gold and it's certainly been a week. into a new all time highs and twenty nineteen as you predicted as i predicted as everyone press always asked what we think now many revolutions of course happen with men with guns you see the american revolution the french revolution the russian revolution and you had men with guns and weapons and well in the case of friends and they had to overturn a system that was around sometimes for hundreds of years the fee.

the krugman industry at the volume and —— recruitment industry at the volume and isa recruitment industryms trying to fill a role on behalf of an employer so it is the square is to peg candidate for the square is told in the shortest time frame so anyone who's cv is different will not get a look in. the jobs board, cv is different will not get a look in. thejobs board, senior cv is different will not get a look in. the jobs board, senior roles advertised very often have an algorithm which matches the hundreds of candidates to apply to the job description. and that will kick your cv out if very often if you have got a gap on it or if you have a nonlinear career path. how much of the focus is on the employer being more receptive to looking for these candidates, but also on the candidates, but also on the candidates themselves? i bet it's pretty daunting going back to workplace you have not been involved infora certain workplace you have not been involved in for a certain number of years, how much help kenny you to candidates on that score? one of the things is, all of those problems is that

liz: paul krugman said there are some veal question about the fiscal side of a progressive agenda. >> is a competence issue as well. if you look at the green new deal, executing this takes understanding of how to get projects done. liz: it could be blocked by the democrats own regulatory rules. it could take years to get a project off the ground. you saw that with the stimulus plan. >> if you strip away the rhetoric of the green deal, some of what's in there you could get people to agree on. fixing the mass transit system and fix our infrastructure across the country. but if you look back at the obama stimulus law. that was 10 years ago. a lot of that law was the green new deal. but it was executed so incompetently that if you look at some of the marquee projects, the california high speed rail project, 10 years later the new democratic governor had to kill that project. if they want to demonstrate some of the core infrastructure ideas work, they need to think about governing and how to cut some of the costs of these projects. >> we love your stuff. you are really smart. you are at th

we have paul krugman saying we are close to recession.y dalio and others have suggested. david: kyle bass said that yesterday on bloomberg. michael: they are seeing the markets go down. they are taking that as a signal. the fed is not taking it that way. they are looking at the production data and saying we are not close yet. david: he is not giving us much guidance on what the fed is going to do. when will we get some guidance? february 26 is the date for humphrey hawkins testimony. he will speak for the fed, not necessarily himself. we have not had a new forecast or changed dot plot. people can ask him, your press conference, was it just words, or has the fed changed its policy path? is there a change? david: there are still some holes in the data. michael: we are still getting that. david: fill in some of the blanks. michael mckee is bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent. you can use the terminal function on your terminal. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i am mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. , elco's no

haidi: that was the nobel economics laureate paul krugman.ing news wherever you are, we have teamed up with twitter to launch tictoc. it is the first global news network designed for social media, offering live video coverage and only updating things that are verified by us on bloomberg. make sure you follow tictoc there. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ haidi: a quick check of business flash headlines, bloomberg is considering -- this company is considering options for a malaysian banking community. the london-based lender has been gauging the business, known as standard charter static. they are wearing to move -- weighing the move because there are limited growth prospects. shery: electronic arts surged to its biggest gain since 2014 after their latest release attracted 10 million users in 72 hours. apex legends is the latest free to play our game. positive commentary and user look liket had online ite that hasof fortn had rival publishers scrambling to catch up. let's preview the markets' open in australia. sophie: we are seeing fluctuations for aus

oh, my god and my favorite nobel prize-winning economist paul krugman due in november embarrassed himself saying trump's tax cut was a fizzle. >> the gdp number is fine, wages are down and people are not saying, gee, this is great, this is wonderful. people are saying, gosh, we are having trouble making ends meet and they have it sensed correctly that the tax cut was for, you know, for a few rich people and corporations are not for them. >> laura: now, repeat, this guy won the nobel prize. but then again, so did oklahoma so big deal. but the bottom line is, experts were wrong once again. terrace on china hurt the chinese and had little effect o us. the shutdown didn't slow the red-hot economy. r right now the trump economy is the envy of the world. so democrats like booker, kind of an interesting guy. i will have to say that, he's an interesting person. they are in a strange position because trump has kind of taken a lot of issues excited dependents and blue-collar l workers off of the table. because, look, the democrats will not outdo trump on border enforcement, trade, wages, and certai

those are the companies, you listen to paul krugman, you get a recession, those companies are going tothe numbers come down substantially. >> axios has a report that some white house advisers have been talking about a mid-march meeting between the president and xi, maybe in mar-a-lago. if we got news on something like that, what would be your first bid? what ticker symbol would you enter first? >> okay, i just did analysis of that and what you would do is you would enter nike nike is already in favored stat ous, already work with the ministry of health and fitness and so rather than go for cat, you can't raise numbers anyway, boeing, which has been immune so far from china, i would go for the company already in the love of china and secondly i would go after apple. secondly because tony was on "halftime," last week, he said, listen, the numbers have to come down there that's different from what tim cook said to me, january is good maybe he has new intel you may have the numbers go down either way i don't want that. but if we can hear that they're not enemies, then apple could maybe sta

coming up, we hear from nobel prize-winning economist paul krugman. why he says a recession in the u.s. is pretty likely. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. prize-winning economist paul krugman says with increasing headwinds in the u.s. come it will be a bad idea for the fed to raise rates. he spoke with bloomberg earlier in dubai. i wasn't really surprised, maybe the way it played out was a little more abrupt than i would've expected to see, but the fact is the fed's normalization of rates was never really very grounded in the data. it was always we need to do this to head off inflation rising above target. where was the inflation? it finally became clear there was not enough inflation, not enough and inflation signal to justify. meanwhile, you have some likely headwinds facing the economy. continuing to raise rates was looking like a bad idea. >> is it possible they could switch to cutting rates? is that the more likely option? you say there are a few headwinds. --i suppose there is a trade europe is looking problematic, some bl

paul krugman, the pulitzer prize winning economist is saying we see a possible recession late this year or next. the so-called bond king said the indicators are not fully flashing yellow yet but we are looking for it and think we will see it. you say when is the recession? >> not before 2021. we are not going to have a recession this year or next year. the signs that usually warn us, inverted yield curve, average hourly earnings up 4%, super optimism on the part of investors, i can give you a dozen more, they are not in place. the u.s. economy is okay. i'm not saying we aren't ever going to have a recession but i don't think we are going to have one before 2021. liz: consumer spending and government spending will be the drivers, not housing, for example. >> right. but even housing with lower interest rates, mortgage applications for purchase are up a lot. liz: yeah. the 30-year fixed just came down once again today. >> yeah. liz: i have got to ask you then, what happens to investments like gold, which has recently perked its head up, and the strong u.s. dollar? >> i think the dollar wil

. >> harris: well, krugman garamendi -- and certainly others, but congressman garamendi first -- they are certainly going to try and protect funding for the allocation of crises or weather or whatever it would be. away from the president's hands in terms of allocating money. >> tyrus: like i said, they are trying to put him in a box so they can say "this is what he tried to do, we stopped him, so it's a victory for us." another republican site is going to say, "well, we got something and it's only just the beginning." >> kat: democrats used to talk about physical barriers of this is more about politics than anything else. >> kennedy: prophylaxis! >> tyrus: good word. >> harris: we will scoot pay [laughs] the problems for virginia democrats are not going away. an attorney for one of the accusers of lieutenant governor justin fairfax says he threatened her client with legal action of his own. the lieutenant governor denies both the assault allegations against him, whether democrats need to take stronger action. plus, we are awaiting that senate confirmation vote this hour on attorney ge

we also have paul krugman on yesterday and he expects a mild recession soon and says the fed doesn'to fight it when or if it happens. let's take a look at the stock of the hour. shall we take a look at the stock of the hour? have we decided on whether it is -- ok, good she sales fail to impress. gucci sales fail to impress. we saw the stock fall earlier in the session so it is recovering to some extent. the gucci growth, china, not enough to spur investors to buy the shares and as a result, some red boxes on your graphic dashboard. this is a function you can use together a wealth of information on any stock. we've got it up for the french luxury goods maker here, off 2.4%. see a valuation there, key metrics as well as what analysts think of the stock. joining us to talk more about it is bloomberg's european consumer news came later eric pfanner -- leader eric pfanner. performanceing's compared to the rest of the luxury goods industry because the market is not impressed today? eric: it is another strong period for kering and gucci, but they set expectations so high. they had so many q

kyle bass and paul krugman saying a recession is likely in the following year. does of people say the fed not have enough firepower to fight that. what do you think about that sentiment? mark: i do not think they need to fight it. we have to remember earnings are up, we saw a record last year. disappointing that we will see earnings flat, and there will be less expansion. but in the context that growth is not collapsing, earnings is not collapsing, why would the fed need to cut rates when you was growth will come in around 2.5%? earnings are flat and not booming, but because they were so high last year. it is based effects that makes it more look negative. i think overall the environment remains constructive for risk assets this year. because there is less of a one-way bet, a less brilliant growth story, volatility will remain. it will not go back to pre-2018, we will have painful corrections and pullbacks, but this should be a good year for risk assets even with volatility. it has to do with dovish this from central banks. the central bank in new zealand not ge

paulthanks, krugman says with increasing headwinds, it would be a bad idea for the fed to raise rates the state of the world economy at the summit in dubai. >> i think we're in much worse shape. we probably don't have a crisis of that magnitude about to hit us, but much worse shape to deal with us the me were 10 years ago. u.s. is seeking support on a un security council resolution condemning venezuela. regime's blocking of federal aid and calling maduro to call fresh elections. the u.s. may press ahead, regardless, to keep global attention focused on venezuela. and the swiss experienced a mini flash crash. snapped back to trade stronger. the round-trip created a trait of almost double the daily average. the liquidity, due to japanese holiday, has been blamed for the move. and the biggest winner of the grammys this year wasn't even there. childish gambino claim to award for record and song of the year, first for a hip-hop audience -- artist. but he wasn't in attendance. global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in

david: we had paul krugman warning about recession, kyle bass warning about it. >> we've seen peopleanged their call. going into the end of last year, a lot of firms were saying we are not nervous about recession in 2019 or 2020, but that tone seems to have shifted already. day, thebillion a interest the u.s. is paying on that tha debt. >> it is a joy enormous number ginormous model. alix: they are the big landlord in the entire world -- other private equity firms are like, cool, let me go to that. in real estate assets. the real estate region is really interesting as well. it's hotels, retail properties, homes, warehouses as well because of the amazon dynamic around the world. alix: it's more liquid. until when? david: the rates affect this a lot. >> investors really love real estate. because of the income they spin off. a lot of wealth managers love them for that, too. is a stronghold for them. they really are the front runner. david: the new governor, kevin newsom of california, has come out and said these digital companies are making a lot of money off of our personal data. why d

cliff: if you look at krugman and hank paulson, they were somehow pleading with the chinese to give trumpomething that he can call a victory, that implies that underneath it all, the chinese are not offering much. they are standing their ground. they are trying to see if trump well escalate or not. it is brinkmanship on both sides. yvonne: we will have more. this rally is happening in el paso. that was cliff tan, head of east asian global markets research at mufg bank. talking after the news of this border deal between democrats and republicans and that rally in el paso. keep on watching. if you go to live go, if you are a bloomberg subscriber, you can look at some of the big diary entries coming today and later this week. and some of the events you missed earlier. this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm a veteran and the army taught me a lot about commitment. which i apply to my life and my work. at comcast we're commited to delivering the best experience possible, by being on time everytime. and if we are ever late, we'll give you a automatic twenty dollar credit. my name is antonio and i'm a technici

it does not matter whether it is krugman or whatever, lots of people are worried.e the tools to do with the next recession. there is another stage of the policy shift that may be more a bit strategic in which they might change the terms of reference going forward. make a move toward something a targetingrice level than inflation targeting, that would we one option. a better way of dealing with recession risk. in a way, it is bullish that central banks are getting concerned now where six months ago they were thinking about tightening. >> what about the balance sheet runoff? we have heard from cleveland fed president advocating the end of the balance sheet runoff by end of year and investors have not been happy about the volatility they believe the runoff has caused. how much should the fed focus on this aspect of the tightening cycle? interesting, i think most of the theory and most of the opinions in the fed said running off the balance sheet is not the cause of the volatility. seem to be, they listening to the markets, the markets are concerned about it. they have

what does professor krugman get wrong?not moving, but i think in time, we will see that happening. thisgina, how does translate into the equity market ultimately? if the u.s. is going to have 100% debt to gdp, it should drive up long-term rates, which then affects the discount rate you apply back and of the equity markets. is there any evidence for that being the case at this point? >> not yet. rates have not gone higher yet. i think if we do go into a situation in which rates move significantly higher, you of a number of things that happen in the equity market. valuations are impacted because your base is the long-term or even short-term interest rates. if they are higher, yet more suppression in violation potential. you also have the environment or utilization for debt for 30 years companies have been not only utilizing that because the rates are going down, but they have been incentivized through the tax code. we started to disincentivize through the tax code with the tax package passed in 2017. if rates continue to go