unclear where kugler is on that. you know, tyler, it's like saying draw me a picture of the room but leave out the big elephant in the room. it's almost impossible, i would think, to think about a monetary policy this year to think about the economy this year without incorporating some form of your belief what's going to happen to those two particular areas of critical importance to the economy. >> how unusual is it, steve, for interest rates as set by the fed, and they have one or two rates that they influenced very directly, how unusual is it that their interest rates are coming down and longer-term interest rates are going up? and what does that signal? >> it's pretty unusual, tie lerl. it's worth noting, think people forget this, in the anticipation of those rate cuts yields did come down and now we have given back the largest part of that decline. there was a need for the yield curve to rebalance in a way, that is to do get positive again. look where it is now, north of 30 basis points, i guess 32 basis points o

we heard from kugler and daly and that's what they're saying.e view people have on the market and investments? does that make you more nervous or should investors stay an narrow, maybe not on the mag seven for the mega cap tech names? >> the path is lower. we are expecting 50 basis points in rate cuts this year as opposed to 100 basis points of rate cuts we were expecting back in september. we get another 50 basis point cuts in 2026 and perhaps lower in 2027. if the path forward is lower short-term interest rates accompanied by moderating levels of inflation, that provides tailwinds for stocks and bonds. again, don't limit yourselves to the seven large cap technology stocks. look at other areas like bio-tech and aerospace and defense and others that have not participated yet in the rally. >> i want to get to your pick for today. what is your pick for today and why? >> my pick is ome therapeutics. major depressive disorder. alzheimer's disease. all of these areas are likely to be attractive to larger cap pharmaceutical companies who need to be qu

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we have governor kugler coming on the show tomorrow and monetary policy still in the background or the forefront. >> yeah. yeah. we will continue to see how the ai trade plays out. trillion dollar club, added the most. that does it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. >>> indeed it does. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." and here's what's on tap tonight. holiday hangover. stocks stumbling out of the gate to start the new year after limping to the finish line in 2024. is this a bad setup for a bull run this year? we'll debate that. plus, stuck in reverse. shares of tesla taking it on the front bumper after reporting their first ever drop in annual deliveries. we'll break down the stock's recent slide coming up. >>> and later, the builders bruised and battered. will the slide continue in 2025? energy on the climb. could this rebound be for real? and, a call of the day on uber. why goldman is so bullish. welcome, everybody, i'm tyler mathieson, in for melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the n

adriana kugler spoke at a panel at the american association conference in san francisco.he said no one is popping champagne to celebrate the decline in inflation and they want to make sure that the recent bump in inflation didn't prove persistent. she also said she wants to see the unemployment rate stay where it is. speaking at that same panel san francisco fed president mary daly echoed those comments saying she does not want to see further slowing in the labor market. i think steve liesman was there for some of these comments. i think that's who these comments were made to. maybe i'm wrong. >>> microsoft planning to spend $80 billion in fiscal 2025 that ends in june. that's on the construction of ai data centers. if you thought that maybe there was like an ai bubble or something, at least in the construction of infrastructure, not anytime soon. the company's vice chair brad smith saying in a blog post more than half the infrastructure spending will take place in the u.s. he called on the incoming trump administration to protect the company's leadership in ai through ed