vonnie: joining us now, kurt reiman and tony rodriguez. i hope you have had some sleep since the last time we spoke to you. what mickey bowman did in dissenting was awed at the time. now it looks different. is there a chance we might not get a cut in december? kurt: we still think fed policy is in a restrictive territory. the economy is doing fairly well. our expectation is shelter costs keep inflation moving back toward the target. there is room for the fed to cut one more time this year and another four in 2025. vonnie: that is the out of consensus view right now. have you changed your mind over what might happen? particularly what kurt just said about seeing cuts by the end of next year? tony: good afternoon and good to be with you. our view lines up a little bit with kurt's. our view is we will probably see a 25 basis point cut in december. we think growth will moderate but not as much as we expected prior to the election. having achieved a red sweep, there is a probability of aggressive fiscal policy meaning the tax act gets renewed a