>> reporter: well, we are in kyrgyzstan, so it's difficult.dn't see as many iranian forces here. there are reports that they are there. iran says they have sent iranian support as well to help the shia factions, but here in kyrgyzstan we wouldn't be seeing that. >> all right, michelle, thank you very much for that. >>> we'll quickly bring in steve at the world petroleum congress in moscow. the iea said last week that iraq is set to provide 60% of the growth in opec output to the end of this decade. is that what is causing the market so much concern rather than the current situation? because my understanding is this is negligible in the grand scheme of things. >> reporter: i think actually i'm going to slightly disagree, julia. it is very important for the future. only 45% of the incremental growth encrewed up to this will come from the iraq growth. but the president isn't negligible but they export about 2.6 to 2.7 million barrels a day. they are producing in total about 3.3 million barrels a day, down from the peak of 3.6 million. on saying t

we are in kyrgyzstan, the northeastern part of iraq. we are here because when middle east experts talk about the possible disintegration of iraq, they are talking about this here, kyrgyzstan, a semiautonomous area with its own court system and education system. and they have long wanted to be independent. when we talk to leaders here, they say, they say that they would very much like to stay a part of iraq but only under certain conditions. conditions such as them being allowed to export oil, conditions such as baghdad getting its act together. and thus far neither one of those two things look apparent. so still the bigger question remains as to whether or not we are going to see iraq as we know it finally come apart as a result of what's happening here and the sunni/shia fighting going on in the northwestern part of the country. what we are talking at over the next couple of days as we show you the oil facilities here in kyrgyzstan, one government official says by the end of next year they will have double production and be exporting 1

all three of the countries would be less than the current sum and the kyrgyzstan would become a sunni, and the shia state would become the iranian client state. >> so are you saying if maliki would leave that you'd have the same problem? that there isn't anybody there who could -- because, you know, the administration seems to think that maliki, it's his problem because he has been unable to perform the coalition. >> let me ask general zinni if iraq broke up between the former yugoslavia, what if there was an independent kyrgyzstan in the north and a shiite-led country in the south and a sunni-led country, and what would be so bad if there was a partition and three independent country emerge? >> doug gave you a good reason why that's not going to work. the kurdish state in the north is going have problems with turkey and iran who do not want to see kurdish independence blossom in any way. the sunni-run state will be the poor step-cousin to jordan and may become another sanctuary for terrorists and obviously, the small state just as doug said in the south will become a shia client for

you know later on launch these military campaign against south said there was violent riots in kyrgyzstan and ukraine up until a certain point was a notable exception but now they're saying it's no longer the case i wonder. given the mass existing mass in ukraine not only domestically but also the ripple effect it produced in the international community have a major crisis on our hands do you think it may change the state department thinking as far as you know color revolutions are concerned and so the question i mean i think. expert opinion is that by that. and again national circumstances are important in georgia for george had a very violent twenty twenty five years of independence it didn't start with the colored and with the revolution of two thousand and three and they are they had a civil war the fight against the is all these things that already happened ukraine though as you point out it was different to ukraine as had a lot of division a lot of contention but it until this past winter it had had almost no political violence so from that point of view is actually much less violen

you know later on launch these military contain against south said there was violent riots in kyrgyzstan and ukraine up until a certain point was a notable exception but now they're saying it's no longer the case i wonder. given the mass existing mass in ukraine not only domestically but also the ripple effect it produced in the international community to have a major crisis on our hands do you think it may change the state department thinking as far as you know color revolutions are concerned and so the question i mean i think. expert opinion is the vital. and again national circumstances are important in georgia but georgia's had a very violent twenty twenty five years of independence it didn't start with the colored there with the revolution of two thousand and three and they are they had a civil war and they the fight against the obvious is all these things that already happened ukraine though as you point out it was different to ukraine as had a lot of division a lot of contention but it until this past winter it had had almost no political. violence so from that point of view is ac