i had a question about the imbalance between labor supply and labor demand. one of the things in his little obscured when we look at and talk about there is a pronounced general trend due to population aging. so when you think about realigning labor supply and labor demand, our officials hoping or expecting deportation really moves back to a pre-covered peak? and related to that is how much of the realignment do you think needs to be done through restricting labor demand as opposed to the ability of supply to catch up? so, and labor force participation i think it is useful to go back 10 years. the forecast that mainstream labor had you are right, aging of the population with a declining rate of participation. labor force purchase a patient was an ineffective flat and a little bit from 2013 -- 2020 roughly. and that was because you had a strong type labor market people were saying in the labor market longer than expected is really what it was. so our ability to predict is not perfect in this. except over long periods of time you have an aging population you're

the question between imbalance between labor supply and labor demand. one of the things it's obscured when we look at labor participation rate if there's a downward trend due to population aging. when you think about labor supply and labor demand, are fomc officials hoping or expecting that participation is back up to a pre covid peak and related to that is the follow on question, how much of the realignment do you think need to be done through restricting labor demand as opposed to the ability of supply to catch up? >> so on labor force participation. i think it's useful to go back, you know, 10 years and the forecast that mainstream labor economists had was, you're right, aging the population needs to declining labor force participation. notwithstanding that, labor force participation was in effect flat and up from 2013 to 2020, you had a strong labor market, people were staying in the labor market longer than expected, that's really what it was. so our ability to predict is not perfect in this except over long periods of time you have an aging popula

and all of that because of tight labor market but ate tight labor market had inflation pricing a tickelow 2% is what adds potential. so that seems like something that would be really good for the economy in the country if we can get back to that. and so that is what all of us what to do. we went to get back to a long expansion of where the labor market can remain strong over an extended period of time. that is a really good thing for workers in the economy and would love to get back to that. that is what our goal is. in the near term we have to use arch tools to have a price stability lifting but that medium and longer-term. if you think about the country went there difficult time. i think? we can think can happen here. really set up our economy for several decades of prosperity. for the benefit of the economy and the people in it over very, very long period of time. so when it is lost for whatever reason it has to be restored in as quickly as possible. which is what we are doing. [inaudible] marks we do we absolutely do. it is our regular practice to talk about unemployment rates by

to some of the strength of labor market. labor marsh it is very strong. it's just that by now we had expected, we continually were expected to faster progress on inflation the rehab ultimately. and that is why the peak rate for this year goes up between this meat in the september meeting producing the fact he made less progress than expected on inflation. that is why that goes up. that is what unemployment goes up. we have to tighten policy more. and so it did not go up by much than the median but that is the idea. slower progress on inflation. tighter policy probably higher rates held longer just to get to restriction that you need to get inflation down to 2%. >> how much of that can be caused by layoffs versus changes to the labor force population? >> it's very hard to say. you can look at history. history would say in a situation like this the decline since the appointment would be more meaningful than what you see written down there. why is that the case? first is a huge overhang of vacancies. meaning vacancies and come down a fair amount for their he

a lot of that inflation is related to the labor market and the labor market remains quite out of balance we have too many jobs and too few workers. so that means that wage inflation is going to be above its long run sustainable average and we're going to have that passing through to prices and that's what we're working on right now is that's why my projection has gone up it's really coming out of that core services and relates fundamentally to this the ongoing strength in the labor market. >> so let me let me ask you more about that because i think i think that that kind of breakdown of inflation into those three components is very helpful but it also highlights a concern i have about the challenge facing the fed so i completely agree with you we're on a great trajectory for housing price inflation we've already seen that we're actually having negative growth month of a month in core goods inflation. of course services looks a little more troubling i that's the sector of the economy that's most exposed to the labor market most exposed to wages. tell me what you think about this my concer

the majority of men are in the labor force. the minority is growing rapidly are you the pandemic doesn't interrupt that pattern. kristen: how about the women? >> the long-standing story was an increase in labor force participation, an increase in women into male-dominated jobs. doctors, lawyers. there was a concern that the pandemic could interrupt the progress. there was this moment, a weird one, when the pandemic -- it was a weird recession. it was sharp and short. women are moving into stem roles and science technology, engineering, and into law, into engineering, medicine. during the pandemic we saw an increase in the number of women senior management roles. it looks as if, the good news, that fears of what people call the she cession. those fears seem to have been unfounded. the marsh of women onwards and upwards in the labor market seems to have continued. that is great news for everybody. at the same time we're going back to the old the story is that the men seem to be struggling. the less educated men are struggling to

the railroads have historically be a flashpoint of labor activism and setting the model for labor relations for much more than a century. it was in the 19th century, there were bloody clashes between the army and railroad workers. people were being put in jail. also in world war i, the eight hour day came to the railroads via woodwork -- woodrow wilson. it is not just a strike of a few tens of thousands of rail workers, it will set a mitral -- model. biden claims to be the most prolabor president and here we have an occasion in which that could be demonstrated. and also in terms of whether it is sick leave or just a schedule that workers can live with, this would be a rail victory. a better contract in an industry which is making enormous profit, could set a pattern for lots of other workers. i will say one more thing which i think is in this moment of botheightened labor activism and also enormous resistance, not just better contract put forward in congress, which could ppen. bernie sanders is -- has clared he will not vote fo the bill unless there is more sick days, but i think a delay in

the labor for justice last a lifetime. there is no end to the labor that's what i've learned. but hey i've learned that if we labor in love love for others love for opponents i love for ourselves. and we will last. i want to let slip his last. for some days we will be somebody's ancestors they will gather here in this room. and if we get this right they will inherit not our fear. but our bravery. by the way could you queue for thing thank you isha: hello, and welcome. it's good to have you with us. some eight million people have fled ukraine since the war began in february. the last few months have been extremely traumatic for those who had to flee their homes. but not for all, it seems. some are seemingly living a dream life among the super-rich on the french riviera. these images show the luxurious lives of ukrainian billionaires and oligarchs far from the war. many of these people live in

for signs we are starting to see some ease labor markets and the labor market inflationary pressuresoming entrenched, and that is something they have seen a big vocus on, so you don't want to see a second round spiral. >> it has been too long. don't leave it's a long neck sent. the capital partners. wonderful to catch up as always. fantastic lineup. coming up in five miss time, and then after that, morgan stanley. we will up around 730 eastern time. >> did you see jp morgan at 150, published the survey? >> sure. >> there are group of people south of that at 180. >> they joined the full range. >> the full range hike. >> highest height. low 60's. >> >> ok. >> ok. >> i'm with diana. i'm looking at dynamics. this is been great on labor per dissipation, but i'm in the camp of labor participation as a fiction because of demographics and social policies. we don't have a clue about labor participation. >> but if it doesn't change, that means people are coming back, and that is the best case scenario for the fed. >> it is a disincentive to on retire and work with pharaoh. >> what are you sugg

market the biggest cost by far in that sector is labor.ee a very, very strong labor market one where we haven't seen much softening. job growth is very high, wages are very high. vacancies are quite elevated and really there's an imbalance in the labor market between supply and demand so that part of it, which is the biggest part, is likely to take a substantial period to get down the goods inflation has turned pretty quickly now, after not turning at all for a year and a half, now it seems to be turning. but there's an expectation really that the services inflation will not move down so quickly so we'll have to stay at it and may have to raise rates higher to get to where we want to go. that's really why we are waiting down those high rates and expecting they'll have to remain high for a time. >> howard schneider with reuters. thanks for taking the question you described gdp growth in the seps as modest, i believe, yet it's really approaching stall speed. half a percentage point is not much you described labor market unemployment rate as

the labor market is very strong. where we're missing is on the inflation side and we're missing by a lot on the inflation side that means we need to really focus on getting inflation under control and that's what we'll do i think as the economy heals, the two goals come more into play but the focus has to be on getting inflation down >> greg? >> thank you, chairman powell. you spoke a little bit ago and said the u.s. -- it looks like we have a structural labor shortage in the economy. could you expand on that are you talking about getting congress action increasing legal immigration, things like that? thank you. >> what i meant by that, the structural labor shortage, if you look at where we are now, as i mentioned if you just look at demand for labor you can look at vacancies plus people who are actually working and then you can take supply of labor by are you in the labor market, are you looking for a job or have a job, and more than 4 million people short, we don't see, despite very high wages and incredibly tight

also the kind of labor we need is skilled labor.ike in canada they see what kind of skills they have so that they can add to the economy. how do all of these unskilled immigrants, cross the border is not going to be helpful? i can tell you what they do. the men go to construction sites, they work and then the women stage motor vehicle accidents and then they sue the insurance companies and that is what is going on with the labor -- illegal immigrants. host: to the previous points, what is your response? guest: i think if the worry is that immigrants are undermining low skilled american workers i do not thanks you see that in the jobs numbers. i think it is a very good time if you wanted to work and services, leisure and hospitality, wage growth is 10%, very high numbers pending on what you are looking at. the big thing is that a lot of workers who were here in 2019 moved into higher productivity and higher wage jobs and goods and services, transportation, and warehousing. there has been upgrading. there is a lot of work still to be

what are labor delivering? half of that, mr. speaker. the labor party talks, the conservatives deliver. >> mr. speaker, as ever, two weeks to stand up to his own side -- [indiscernible] -- mr. speaker, i noticed there was another u-turn last night. this time on wind farms. i agree with that one. but is there no issue on which you won't give into his back ventures? now, mr. speaker, how did his colleague, baroness moan, end up with 30 million pounds of taxpayer money in her bank account? >> mr. speaker, let me say, like everyone else, i was absolutely shocked to read the allegations -- it's absolutely right that she's no longer attending the house of lords and therefore no longer has the conservative whip. the one thing we know, he is a lawyer, he should know there's a process in place. s is the right that that process concludes. i hope that it's resolved properly. but i'll say one thing, mr. speaker. he mentioned, i'll tell him what is weak. i tell him what is weak. is not being able to -- i'll tell him. that's not being able to stand up

those cuts, from what i understand, as theyfect the labor -- effect the labor, their employment, is hitting massive cuts -- liz: oh, terrible timing. and then, of course, bonuses. >> bonuses, you know, if you get one. but if you get a job, you know, that's probably -- you're lucky at credit suisse. they are cutting pretty significantly. i heard junior staffers like certain parts of the banks, certain departments, like, they literally wiped out the entire freshman class. so this is pretty significant at credit suisse. we did talk to dick bove recently about it. he thinks it's a buy on the stock. liz: big banking analyst. >> yeah. bove thinks it's a buy. he told ellie, my producer, that he thinks they're going to get their house in order, they're going to slash wages and slash the work force, get their house in order, and the stock is cheap. liz: he may be -- it's a latin word. >> i said it's either french or latin. liz: it's not paren. >> you know, i think it's fun fun that you are finding that out now because someone's in your ear telling charlie it's latin. five minutes ago you did not kno

that labor shortage which was created by the american rescue plan led to a labor shortage in that labor shortage has led to price increases because you have people who had the revenue and disposable cash flow to buy goods but not an of goods in circulation to purchase. mr. goodspeed, is that an accurate assessment of what has happened in america since joe biden became president? >> yes, i think that's a fair description. >> let's establish a couple of things. prices are up, electric the -- electricity prices are up food is price and the only reason gasoline prices are down is because the president has been buying down the prices with the gasoline reserves. i understand the majority of parties desire to put this in corporate america for raising prices. if you do not have enough workers working, there is none of goods produced and there is none of goods produced but everybody still has money to go buy goods, the price of each unit actually goes up. that's how inflation is created. more policies of the same will lead us further down the road to perdition which we are already on. with that,

indeed, he chose a labor secretary in secretary marty walsh, whose deep personal roots in organized labor joining laborers union 223 at age 21 and served as the boston building trades before he became mayor of boston. together, the white house, the administration and the congress have proudly stood with working people. under president biden and our pro-union democratic majority, we're able to protect pensions, promote the pro-act for collective bargaining and create good-paying davis-bacon jobs in the infrastructure bill, in the chips and science law, and additional legislation. we believe that the middle class is the backbone of our democracy. and we believe that the middle class has a union label on it. madam speaker, today we are here to safeguard the financial security of america's families. to protect american economy as it continues to recover. and avert a devastating nationwide rail shut down. we all know that for too long the railroads ownership have made obscene profits on the backs of workers. selling out to wall street and its outrageous precision scheduled railroading, they ha

especially skilled labor. are you seeing this in your area? >> yes it's been a challenge about six or seven years now. it's a combination of a lot of things at least on the construction site for decades we've told the students stay out of construction, go get a college degree, get ahead in life, so we've steered people away. additionally, with covid when it hit and unfortunately unemployment benefits that were added, it was a negative impact. i had an electrician friend of mine offering jobs to electricians but they were getting paid for unemployment and they refused to work for him while those benefits were in place. now i believe those unemployment benefits were a good thought. unfortunately had a negative impact where we had a huge need for labor. >> i will yield back. thank you very much for the testimony. >> now we recognize the gentleman from nebraska for five minutes. >> thank you mr. chairman. i mentioned this in my introduction but i'd like to reiterate how pleased i am i have the district of nebraska

s. president who has presented himself as the most pro labor pro labor union president in history is such a big, strong supporter of labor unions. but now he's pushing forward this piece of legislation that would outlaw a strike and basically take away the ability of railroad workers to withhold their labor in a strike. and he's saying, well, this has to be done because of the economic impact of such a strike. it would be devastating on the u. s. economy. well, many americans are looking at that and saying, well, what about all the inflation is provide presided over. i mean, that's going to certainly have an impact on the u. s. economy. but when it comes to ukraine on the u. s. congress, both the house and the senate are happy to open up their checkbooks and pass legislation in may. there was $40000000000.00 provided to ukraine by the united states in september, an additional $12300000000.00 was passed by the us congress and provided to ukraine. meanwhile, if one looks at the polls, the u. s. public isn't deeply concerned about you. ukraine just isn't showing up among the top issues

congress can step in resolve disputes bween labor unions and railroads under t 1926 railway labor actas part of its power under the constitution to regulate commerce congress has previously intervened 18 times in such to buttes -- in such disputes. the last time congress did so with 1992. biden was one of the only six senators to vote against legislation, citing unfavorable terms for workers. this morning we want to know from you, should congress have forced a rail deal? the president asked them to act. they did so quickly. the house did it earlier this week, followed by the senate yesterday. now the president said he will quickly sign this measure into law. forcing a deal from -- between the rail union and rail company. i did the president ask congress to act now? the other options included extending a cooling off period to allow both sides to continue negotiating, or forcing the parties to ent arbitration. biden also could have urged congre to propose -- or he could have proposed adding ck time or other befits the unions have be asking for. t sweetening the deal for railroad workers

it imposes a labor agreement. we spoke to the labor secretary. >> there are provisions in the contract, it was not a bad contract. a 25% increase, a split on health care. they were able to get work rules changes, three unpaid days off. the issue of sick time, the companies need to sit down to have a serious conversation about two issues. mark: president biden called the deal a victory for workers. an investigation found a string of chinese manufacturers in violation of tariffs. they have been in violation by selling equipment exported from southeast asia before shipping it to the u.s.. the u.s. is working to boost domestic manufacturing. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> welcome to bloomberg rockets. katie: let's take a look at the markets in the wake of the superhot jobs report. we are off of the worst levels of the session. the s&p is off by .6%. the big tech names are le

labor force as all we have labor force keeps pressure on wages what powell is trying to turn alreadyt this labor participation biggest red flag at federal reserve, as far as main street is concerned a big red flag to me are the people working multiple jobs, so right now the total people folks working, women 5.5% working more than one job, and so that gets to you bifurcated economy i love bring on show brag about excessive savings a term i think oxy moron i never heard it before, extra savings, still we are got about 1.4 trillion in excessive k3ez savings bottom half income strata has nonused all spending money, that is the particular time alluded to with federal reserve, and job of crushing the economy a lot of people walking around crushed. maria: you had a few minutes to look at this report go >> numbers as we are identifying all the important parts of it, how would you assess the november jobs' report? >> dagen pointed out scriptings between household survey establishment sweat if not confused not paying attention mixed signals within companies mixed conversations taking place on

who have told me that actually that meeting that we heard about with the labor minister, that the labor minister himself is being looked into and also the you, the victoria ambassadors, the european union as one might expect. i've also been doing some digging through some european parliament vote some find that a vote in the libra libor committee has called, which is like the legal affairs committee that ava kylie on the 1st of december turned off to a vote that was related to e. d. u visa liberalization for qatar and voted in favor of allowing that liberalization process to move forward. she is not a member of that committee. so on top of that speech that she made in the parliament that appear there, appears to be a growing weight of sort of public evidence coming out against her. it is important to say that the belgian authorities are investigating this heavily for other people have been arrested including a former m e p from italy. and then there's also these widespread reports of 600 will confirmed reports by the belgian police that they confiscated 600000 euros in cash. one belgian

it led to a labor shortage. that labor shortage has led to price increases because you had people who had revenue and disposable cash flow to buy goods but not enough goods in circulation to purchase. mr. good speed, isn't an accurate assessment of what is happened in america since joe biden became president of the united states? >> yeah. i think that is a fair description. >> let's establish a couple of things. our prices up? yes they are. electricity prices are up. food prices are up. the only reason why gasoline prices are down right now is because the president has been buying down price with the petroleum reserve. that is coming to an end as well. we are in a recession. i think we have covered a lot here. look, i understand that a majority of the parties desire to try and put this on corporate america for raising the prices. if you do not have enough workers working, there is not enough goods being produced. if there is not enough goods being produced, if everyone still has money to go and buy goods, the pr

the need to grow the labor force. that's not out there right now and he's laid out a scenario in which not only does he have to raise the unemployment rate now, but the fed when it settles into the post-pandemic world -- >> keep it there -- >> -- there's many within the fed that are worried about, are worried about -- exactly, worried about having a higher unemployment rate, needing to have a higher unemployment rate, as the non-inflationary rate of unemployment they thought they could get to 3.5% he admitted that he thought that was their goal, and that they could do that without inflation. that's no longer the case. this is a new world and i think that's a very different kind of economy in the one in which we left and it's a very different mind-set for financial markets to sort of let sink in and if they don't let it sink in sooner, the fed has to go further. >> is there a weird silver lining here -- not weird, it would be a great silver lining if it meant that you should turn around right now and press for more wag

it will protect human rights, protect labor standards, environmental standards. so it's an important step in the right direction to protect people also in the weakest, the poorest country of the world. and it's also protecting consumers in the rich countries because they are looking more more at these issues and saying we want high standards. we don't want cheap products or sells. pretty good. you have been a little bit more skeptical in the past. is this now the law that you want or how could it be improved? my personal view is that the law could have been tougher. it gives a lot of ways for companies out to say, look, we are not responsible, we don't want to be responsible. but by large, i think it's a good law because it tells german companies look, you are responsible for ensuring that along the entire supply chain the standards are met and there is no abuse. this is a high bar particular for small companies that are not able to control every step. but that is not necessarily the problem. that's the idea to say you're, you're responsible if you have doubts, c

the biggest cost by far in that sector is labor. we do see a very strong labor market. one where we have not seen much softening job growth is very high, wages are very high, vacancies are quite elevated, there is imbalance in the labor market between supply and demand. that part, which is the biggest part is likely to take a substantial period to get down. the goods inflation has turned pretty quickly now after not turning at all for a year-and-a-half. now it seems to be turning but, there is an expectation really that the, services inflation will not move down so quickly, so we'll have to stay at it, we may have to raise rates higher to get to where we want to two. go. that is why we're raising higher rates and why we have to remain high for some time. >> reporter: howard snyder from reuters, thanks for taking the question. you described gdp growth in the s.e.p.es as moderate or modest. it is approaching stall speed. half a percentage point is not much. you described labor market, unemployment rate representing some softening. nearly a full percentage point rise. that

is it labor or capital?ulian: this is one of the difficulties of the last year or two, aside from the fact that we are shifting to a fed that has taken away the idea of free money in our view likely for the long-term. the 40 year relationship of capital and labor is shifting. capital had the advantage for those 40 years going back to the early 1980's when inflation was broken. it is not an easy process. we do not want to say that labor will go into the driver's seat. there is a greater balance now. if you think about what chair powell is saying, what corporate america is saying and what politicians are saying, that is not necessarily a bad thing in the long run. alix: volatility does not seem to be going anywhere, unless it is the vix, which is somehow below 20. what you do in this environment? julian: you have to be careful. the type of things bear markets do is make you become too emotional. you need to check your emotions, and you need to think long-term. when markets go down, that forces you into thinkin