i am francine lacqua your london.ght to the bloomberg business flash. >> a year into the sleeping restructuring to cut costs and risks, unicredit starting to get help. income climbed from one year earlier, while revenue climbed by 12%. as much could purchase as one third of one of the world's largest insurers. the transaction could be valued at more than $10 billion. the talks are at a very early stage. commerzbank has reported better-than-expected revenue and growth for this year. fourth-quarter revenue came in a 2.1 9 billion euros while net income fell to 90 million euros. that comes less than a week that deutsche bank posted its lowest revenue and seven years. commerzbank ceo joins us for an exclusive interview at 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. zurich insurance group has overcome a record year for natural disaster claims in the industry. 6% tosed its dividend by 18 swiss francs per share. the company also announced a share buyback of roughly $1 billion. tesla has put to rest concerned that it was going to need to raise mor

i'm francine lacqua, tom keene is in new york. up, shares are breaking away from correlation, quite a big move in yen. tom: francine, i love what you said in the opening about strategist struggle. that captures the zeitgeist. not bafflement but what is going on in the correlations of the market. it is amazing to see the vix do that round-trip from 50 down to average. francine: you're right. we will spend more time on that chart. let's get straight to the bloomberg first world news. reporter: starting in south florida, the highschooler who was arrested for a school shooting, was kicked out of school the previous year. the suspect was armed with a semiautomatic rifle and smoke grenades. he set off a fire along to draw students out of class. he was arrested a mile from the school. africa, ramaphosa will become president today and he is likely to be elected in permanent capacity on friday. who finallying zuma gave in to demands that he resign. his years in office were marred by scandal. president trump has surprised lawmakers by sayin

i'm francine lacqua in london. italy heads to the polls on sunday.s spirits have also been dampened by a messy economy. italy is the worst performer in the euro area despite 14 quarters of growth. investors have been more sanguine. the bond market saw the country's 10-year spread over germany bounce. have markets reached a turning point? head of theow, the italian treasury and chief of staff to the finance minister. so, thank you so much for joining us. just a reminder, especially our foreign viewers, we cannot talk about the polls, but are you concerned that some of the reforms or some of the investor confidence can be wiped out monday? >> we are not concerned about that. itese have been qu successful five years, especially the last month and the last year, seeing acceleration in growth in the country. i think the italian public in business,rge but also households and families, our understanding the importance of structural reforms , and i don't think there is any appetite to go back to the two-deal system. francine: we are neutral here on bloomberg

tom keene new york and francine lacqua and london.rsation on oil. n as we lookack abli at volatility. bring up the chart here. the vix with the red circle and that 50 blowout the other day and down we go back to average. tell me the volatility. jack: i cannot say volatility is your friend. i do say we want normal volatility of around 15 to 20. when we get spikes like that, it certainly creates obviously a lot of uncertainty and dislocation. i do think that as long as the economic data was the lowest volatility on record, i suppose it makes sense for the equity market volatility to follow along. in 3% gdp? believe jack: no, i believe beating a 2% donkey and a 3% racehorse can last for a little while. now that we are centrally into our third quarter of higher than potential gdp and federal reserve of atlanta's arguing for 5% in the first quarter, what that suggests is we are running a little too hot. that means we are taking up spare capacity much faster than we normally would. that could push inflation. tom: is it time for jay powell t

with me in london, francine lacqua.-- enda curran report on china was wonderful and it's not just about waldorf-astoria, it's about assets around the world. francine: it is. what we are trying to figure out and we have our morning must read on it is whether this is something china will continue to do or whether it is on one person and the and bank -- embank chief executive. tom: it's a fascinating story, an important story overlaid on other chinese companies. taylor: u.s. treasury secretary steve mnuchin is brushing aside signs investors are growing nervous about rising prices. mnuchin tells bloomberg trump administration policies will raise wages without causing broader inflation. long-term treasury yields have part recently part -- in due to budget concerns that will raise inflation. deputy atrmed sheriff the school where 17 people were killed took cover when the shooting started instead of going after the attacker. the deputy has resigned after being suspended and the sheriff said his office received two dozen calls

with me, francine lacqua in london.hin the wall of information we are digesting on friday? francine: i am looking at the memo. the memo, not to memo from the white house. i am also looking at brexit. we had a fantastic interview in stay inying they cannot the customs union after they leave and it puts theresa may in an even more difficult position. tom: jobs day front and center, but much more going on. kevin cirilli will join us later on that memo that mr. trump is launching. let's begin, taylor riggs is in new york. taylor: president trump has decided to allow the release of the controversial republican memo arguing the fbi abused its power in the russia investigation. a white house official says the president is unlikely to redact any of the memo's content. democrats say releasing the memo is an attempt to undermine the investigation. is alled friendly fire growing risk in syria where american troops are and that it with kurdish forces. both turkey and the u.s. say they are talking to each other to minimize danger. a

i am francine lacqua in london.etting some breaking news out of the euro area. february services pmi falling to a level below what economists had forecast, 56.7, instead of 50 7.6. manufacturing falling below 58.5.sts, at i do not think this will impact the euro-dollar, 1.2316. after the trading session that we had on yields and the huge bond auction that actually went according to plan -- you can see the two-year yield over in the u.s. practically unchanged at 2.25%. then we did see a reversal on european stocks. they were gaining on the back of asian equities and now they are actually down 0.4%. coming up on bloomberg surveillance, emerging markets and trade. then we also talked canada and of course, more market movements ish blackrock and it budget day. we will bring you with the country's finance minister, gigaba. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. under moreesa may is pressure with 62 lawmakers from her own party demanding a quick, clean break from the european union. they want the prime minis

this is bloomberg surveillance and i am francine lacqua in l ondon. the european union will tomorrow challenge theresa a draft it publishes brexit treaty that ignores some of the prime minister's most important demands. the block is trying to set out in legal detail how it expects britain to depart in just over a year's time and in terms of the they addedperiod, that the 27 members oppose the transitional period. the house intelligence committee is investigating russian interference in the u.s. election. the appearance before the committee is scheduled for 10 up up a.m. washington time. adam schiff, the top democrat on the intelligence committee, confirmed the panel does prepared to have the appearance soon, and she is not being compelled to speak by subpoena. park was indicted in april of last year on 18 counts of of powern, abuse and leaking state secrets. she stands accused of colluding with her long-term friend to extort more than $55 million from big conglomerates, including samsung for business favors. the bank of korea has a left the interest r

i'm francine lacqua here in london. we saw a huge market tumble.lloff deepening yesterday, however in the last 40 minutes or so we have seen a little bit of a turnaround when it comes to u.s. futures. they were down some 2.4 percent, apart from the dax, which is still one of the biggest losers. a lot of the stocks are losing less than they were 10 minutes ago. you can see the ibex down 1.4%. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. here's juliette saly. bnp paribas income came in at 14 3 billion euros in the fourth quarter, in line with analyst estimates. the french bank is coping well with low rates. thef you look at the markets in general, you see a pickup when you look at volumes and all of that. however, we still have a low interest rate environment, so that weighs a little bit on the top line. the cost of a risk is lower than what you expect. that is why domestic markets, the bottom line is a 5%. juliette: bp has dodged the disappointments that have afflicted other oil company earnings. they have reported annual profits of $6.2 bill

i am francine lacqua in zurich with tom keene in new york.alk a lot less three, volatility and everyone is looking at the cpi numbers. i have not seen it like this for at least a couple of years. and then i look to the head of the elections. and of course, japan and the yen are hitting the stocks. tom: absolutely and combined with what we saw from the u.k. yesterday, i agree inflation from america will be closely watched. we talk a lot about international relations and the placement of the trump administration across all of the world economies, francine. tom, now let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news with taylor riggs. in israel,rting prime minister benjamin netanyahu denies he is guilty of any wrongdoing and insists he is the victim of a witchhunt. police recommended he be indicted for bribery, fraud and breach of trust. they say he traded his influence for favors. it is now up to the attorney general to decide whether to charge them. south africa is waiting for jacob zuma's next move. the congress says he needs to quit. if he

i'm francine lacqua. we are back with mario monti and christopher., let's get to the bloomberg first word news. nejra: president donald trump criticized the fbi, democrats, robert mueller's investigation, and his own national security advisor over russia's efforts to sway the u.s. election. hours,g 14 times in 24 trump focused on defending his victory and insisting neither he nor his campaign colluded with the effort. the "l.a. times" is reporting that rick gates, a former trump campaign aide, has agreed to plead guilty and cooperate with robert mueller. japanese exports and imports both registered strong gains in january. overseas shipments rose 12.2% while imports grew 7.9%. the increase resulted in the first monthly trade deficit in eight months. eurozone ministers vote today to replace ecb vice president vitor constancio. 'se head of latvia central bank has been detained by the country's anticorruption bureau. there are calls for the governor to step aside. his lawyer says he considers the move clearly illegal. global news 24 hours a day powered

francine lacqua in london i am tom keene in new york.ay and more data checks. karen moskow with extended data checks later today. thou futures up 1.0 2 -- how futures up 100 02. next screen so we can show the vix. 68.8 is a good stick and a 38.77. yield elevated this morning. francine? francine: i am looking at in europe, they were down, they were up and now they are pretty much trading sideways. a lot of the investors we spoke to yesterday may be called the end of volatility too soon. i am looking at u.s. stocks index futures, which will give us more of a sense of where today goes. the boe volatility index dropping. still with us, stephanie flanders, and geoffrey yu. when you look at the markets, stephanie, you have been in the markets for a long time. before blooming bloomberg -- before joining bloomberg, what does this week tell us? stephanie: there's a lot of things we were expecting to see maybe earlier in the cycle. sit andgan, we used to talk a lot about the unloved bull market and this is kind of correctione,d almost ed correctio

live from london, francine lacqua. francine, what a relief.vix-cen tric this morning. francine: but we could be in a couple of hours. i am kidding. looking at market stresses. look out for that this week in the credit space if anything ugly happens, it may infect the asset class. overall, looking at stocks bouncing back. dollar falling. it seems to be like a quite turn a market this monday morning. tom: relative quiet, to say the least. here is taylor riggs. taylor: president trump's budget director warns interest rates me spike because the u.s. will post a higher deficit this year. still, mick mulvaney says lord deficits are possible over time because of sustained growth from tax cuts. he called deficits very dangerous idea "it is the world we live in." for $1nt trump will ask billion in new spending to build a border wall and fight opioid abuse. the white house comes out with its budget proposal today, but it is likely to get little traction and republican congress that has its own spending priorities. germany's chancellor merkel's defying c

an investment see you spoke with francine lacqua on "surveillance" today about the vote. theell in a way, remember issue is that inside the ecb, the only true risk of the monetary system is whether italy has to think about leaving the eu. first of all, it's unconstitutional, so you cannot even have a referendum. you need to change the constitution first. italy try to change the constitution and it failed. so secondly if you are to take a 130 business pointspread, you multiply that by seven and that makes about 9%. you assume the potential euro devaluation equal to 40, but he -- 25% calculated from the back of the envelope of italy leaving the euro. consider the parts that want to stay in the euro, but the 25% probability is very high when one party does not want to even discuss it and say we are 100% and it. the spread has upside, meaning it could tighten further simply because it is for the euro. francine: you are telling you this can tighten? davide: yes, not the absolute yield. the bund at 60 or 70 basis points can go higher. the same for italian bps. is vis-a-vise ger

i am francine lacqua. michael mckee is in new york.ave a reputation for being ahead of its rivals come is not ready for bitcoin futures, to exchanges got the green light to list contracts tied to bitcoin but goldman sachs -- goldman sachs felt rushed and bitcoin is headed for its worst monthly decline as its futures are clumsy. we are with our european reporter who just wrote a piece for bloomberg markets magazine on traders turning to cryptocurrencies. turning lawless is one of the phrases i picked up. still with us is christian keller and keyu jin. your piece is out soon. crazy tols are bitcoin make a quick buck. >> it says something about what has happened in banking since 2008. these guys join the financial services industry just as the crash it. the golden age vaporized before the rise. -- before their eyes. it became a regulatory story. they said, we got bored. along comes bitcoin, and it opens up this greenfield where they can reinvent their own parallel capital market with all of the expertise and features they have learned and

during the two-week stock selloff a few weeks ago, the francine lacqua drop in a big -- the fang stocks big way and now slightly down from the peak. a lot of volatility for the fang stocks. 6708, a one-year chart of the maryland index -- merrill lynch index. an area of congestion. dip, welle the overbought. maybe suggesting this will go to the downside. when we connect this to the nasdaq 100 futures seen as a proxy for the fangs, we will see a similar chart. an uptrend over the last year into the congestion. over the last year, a gain of 20% but the congestion could result in a pullback. -- gainingctive way even if there is near-term volatility. partner at silver pine capital and a derivatives expert outlined a long-term trade idea. in the money and call spread on the december futures contract where you buy the 6650 strike calls and sell the december 6700 strike call. typically to a 57% return so long as that futures towards the end of the year, options is about 6700. thank you to david at silver pine capital for that idea. we are charting futures. vonnie: great segment. you can see tha

manus: tidjane thiam there with francine lacqua. of the market was unavoidable, according to him. simon french is panmure gordon this morning, listening to tidjane thiam talk about the market. what are the other great swans you in swans for 2018? simon: we don't think it translates into the room economy until later. i think he was spot on in terms of rising gilts and rising inflation -- rising yields and rising inflation. you start to get an inflection point. -- in thisabout environment with confidence so strong, and infrastructure plan, a budget plan for 2019 the has some fairly ambitious spending proposals, if that all starts to move bond yields towards that level at great speed, you get procyclical action. anna: thank you so much for your thoughts, simon french at panmure gordon. we will have another conversation next. this is bloomberg. ♪ we use our phones and computers the same way these days. so why do we pay to have a phone connected when we're already paying for internet? shouldn't it all just be one thing? that's why xfinit

with me, francine lacqua in london.gun control get so emotional, so personal. it is a uniquely american moment. francine: it is. it does not translate in europe. there are questions in the u.k. guns have been banned for a long time. most police officers do not have guns in that is very different from france. everyone is watching, but cannot quite figure out how you are dealing with it. gdp revised down as consumers were hit by inflation. tom: let's get to a news update on washington with our "first word news." taylor: president trump is promising to act quickly to prevent more school shootings. solutions, letting teachers to -- letting teachers carry guns to confront attackers. he met a group of survivors and parents of victims at the white house. -- spoke today in tokyo, endorsing a gradual path for raising interest rates. and businessesrs are feeling the squeeze of higher prices. the u.k. economy expanded less than estimated. gdp was revised slightly downward. the drop in the pound following the brexit vote is driving

francine lacqua spoke to mario monti.xclusive interview, they discussed the ecb, the euro and the upcoming election. made an extremely smart monetary policy and president draghi has been very smart and mastering the support for cutie -- four qe and still has the support. i personally believe that the phasing out will be rather quicker than slower. reasons that has been mentioned for the u.s. in european countries, italy for sure, a very accommodating monetary policy has on the perception on the need to act on economic policy, on real policies. i believe that the effect which explains why the electoral promises issued so liberally and so irresponsibly by all the political parties, one of the reasons is there is no feeling of pressure whatsoever. francine: what will we all to look like? is there a real danger that reform will be slow? also, there's a lot of parties offering tax cuts. how do you fund tax cuts? party,a positive is no either populist or not, has any longer in their program the idea .f leaving the euro they of

i'm francine lacqua in london. right now the stoxx 600 gaining.

today on "leaders with lacqua,"

m: "bloomberg surveillance francine lacqua and tom clean -- tom keene.hout out to our team. yesterday was insane news flow, the knock on effect of what we saw with china and the sky discussion. is there any new sky news story this morning? francine: not for the moment. tom: is there any london story? francine: not for the moment. there are london stories. on sky, i saw a lot of research on why this makes sense and what the various contenders and bidders are going after. it has been less than 24 hours on the talk is we could see another offer, a higher offer from one of the contenders. we need to give it time. i have no insider knowledge. tom: that is where i want to go. my pro tip, you don't want to --g out at the little bar you want to be in the main room, the garden room as you come in the front door. you need to plant yourself there every lunch for the next few days to drive this story. francine: done. tom: let's drive forward the story on china. this is front and center for many. gina martin adams with us and simon french with a briefing. simon, ever

i'm francine lacqua in london.ight now the stoxx 600 gaining. i'm also looking at the treasury yields. you can see that 10-year at 2.77. things are stabilizing somewhat. gold had a big move it yesterday as a hedge against all the volatility. old is still up. we will hit the latest market moves. oil. also talk crude on, weittle bit later will be joined by blackrock. i want his take on investing in the markets. let's get straight to the first reviews. the u.s. house of representatives had passed a stopgap spending bill to fund the government until march 23. a senate vote would send it back to the house before thursday's deadline. president trump said he would welcome a shutdown if democrats refuse his demand for a immigration overhaul. president trump: if we don't get rid of these loopholes, people continue to come into our country and kill. that are many gang members we do not mention. if we don't change it, we will do a shutdown. it is it -- it is worth it for our country. i would love to see a shutdown if we don't

i, of course, have francine lacqua. good morning, everyone.eillance" live from our world headquarters in new york, i'm tom keene. of course with francine. francine, is prime minister may winning? with the zeitgeist this weekend, i know you didn't watch the eagles win. is prime minister may winning on this monday? francine: i know theresa may has been compared to many, the history, historic figures, to many people in the past, but i don't think we've ever heard her compared to tom brady. that's quite an analogy. she, once again, as is often the case on monday after the sunday papers come out, her leadership is being put into question, and so she had to give something to her party saying we will not be in the customs. i know it's another tough week for theresa may. tom: it's interesting to if he. it's a big, big deal, folks. right now, with your monday brief, a big deal with our first word news. here's taylor riggs. taylor: tom, francine, not all members of president trump's republican party not the investigation into collusion with russia to en

today on "leaders with lacqua," we meet one of the most recognized names in swiss banking.e is now vice-chairman at blackrock, the world's biggest money manager, which handles more than $5 trillion in assets. so we are 10 years on from the financial crisis. what have we learned? philipp: well, we have learned that we had too much leverage in the system without any doubt. and that when you have leverage, bad things happen. not only do they happen, but when they happen, the effects tend to be amplified. so i think that is the key take away from it all. i think we have also learned that this notion of kind of letting the market be totally free, that governments really should get out of the way, that wasn't a very good idea. i think what stands out is banks needed much, much more capital than they had at the time. we had capital levels that were excessively low. i mean, in some cases, these banks, they were, these banks were leveraged nearly 100 times. free, that governments really should get out of the way, that wasn't a very good idea. i think what stands out is banks and tha

today on "leaders with lacqua," we meet jean paul agon, chairman and ceo of l'oreal.nk you so much. jean paul: pleasure. francine: what happened to l'oreal in the last 10 years? innovation? your share price has grown. was it exciting times? jean paul: very exciting. i started as ceo 10 years ago. it has been 10 years very exciting. of course, we had crisis in 2008 and 2009, but globally the business has been very good. we have been growing, acquiring brands, launching new products, gaining market share everywhere, in europe, usa, china, so very exciting, fantastic. francine: what has been the most fun? jean paul: the most fun has been the past three or four years. thanks to digital revolution, everything has been transformed. as i tell my teams, i think this industry, our business, our company has more chance in the past three years than in the previous 30 years, so it is an amazing time, extremely exciting. francine: is this the way you sell, or the way people look at makeup? jean-paul: no, in fact it is the relationship between brands and consumers. in fact, digital

today on "leaders with lacqua," we meet one of the most

. >> that was the credit suisse cto with bloomberg's francine lacqua. us with more is the bloomberg intelligence european bank analyst. great to see you here there has been a mixed reacts -- reaction to volatility in the sense that it was good for trading and not so much the advisory. too much weight on the impact of revenue in 2018 because of volatility? have seen this before. optimistic and then what we saw was many markets and businesses going to struggle in 2017 is volatility declined. is the bank too reliant on it remaining? quarterse seen strong ultimately go to disappointing years and revenues. the wealth management is the seems to be performing pretty strongly. ofare seeing the fruits their strategy to sell investment banking products to ultrahigh net individuals. this really differentiates them from someone like deutsche bank, where we have seen revenues continue to fall. credit suisse revenues this year i thinkjusted asus, that eases concerns over a dependence on volatility. >> what about the cost-cutting program? what is the progress and the

qe, less qe, that was the toianz cao -- ceo speaking francine lacqua on bloomberg surveillance.nt down to bhp first-half earnings, we also look at the commodities sector as a whole. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: 1:00 a.m. haidi lun in sydney. i am remy innocence you in new york and you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." oil climbed above $62 as producers signaled tightening supply. let's look at that and the whole with oures complex next guest. thank you for being on the show. let's stick with oil. brent up 5% from its 2018 low so far. i see you think this will head south moving forward. why? seeing this year is a physical buildup of stock. what we see is supply outpacing demand. that comes from what we are seeing out of the u.s.. u.s. supply growth is expected to be 14% this year. it will not keep up. physical surplus, we see a down trend ends prices. we see the listing lasting until the end of the year. you are is interesting talking about this through the lens of u.s. shale. when we see 10 million barrels a day, possibly a 11 million, a lot of folks saying opec havin

go to's direct francine lacqua has been speaking to the ceo. francine, what have you learned? a his earnings. revenue is better than expected. the loss was smaller than expected. a little bit of comfort on that. we focus the bulk of the interview on volatility. he said the volatility helped -- he says it is almost like having a ferrari, you want to make sure your unit works. he says, so far so good. people see it as a negative. that is true for anybody. francine: is he on the right track? >> yes, the people we work for. that was a key part of the strategy. participation, that is really working. they are sophisticated investors. the understand the markets. we are actually trading more. it has more than doubled his profit share. -- thatds of that connection is very strong. francine: there are parts of the market where people don't want to transact at the moment. it is hurting the primary markets. we see a lot of activity in the secondary markets. the primary market issuers are reluctant to issue. things seem to be settling down now. we don't believe what we have seen is a major

tom keene in new york and nejra cehic and for francine lacqua in london.g first word news. here's taylor riggs. begun thee senate has debate over immigration with the two sets far apart. mcconnell backing a bill that provides president trump path for and the citizenship for 1.8 million undocumented immigrants and provides money for wall on the mexican border. democrats have rejected the plan. opec and its allies have almost dried up the glut. the cartel faces a growing problem -- rising supplies from u.s. and other rivals. u.s. output will soon surpass and maysaudi arabia overtake russia as the global leader by the end of the year. in south korea, the chairman of retail giant latte group will be sent to prison for bribery. sent to 30nt was months. they bribed in exchange for government favors. olympicsit the winter and attempt to shame its organizers. a cyber attack paralyzed internet networks at the opening ceremonies in south korea last friday. whoever was behind the attack new usernames and passwords . global news 24 hours a day 2700 journalists and ana

up next, francine lacqua kicks off "surveillance." a little later for the second two hours. i will move to bloomberg radio with manus cranny for the next hour, live on london dab digital radio. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ show me the olympic winter games ♪ ♪ like i've never seen before. ♪ ♪ xfinity x1, yeah, i always know the scor♪. ♪ triple corks in 4k... lookin' so sick. ♪ ♪ stream live on every screen, every win, every trick. ♪ ♪ 2000 hours of coverage, get your mind blown. ♪ 50 olympic channels, yup, you're in the zone. ♪ ♪ and if there's something that you want to see, ♪ pick up that voice remote and just say "show me..." ♪ experience nbcuniversal's coverage of the olympic winter games like never before with xfinity. proud partner of team usa. digging deep. glencore says it will pay out almost $2 billion in dividends after the trading division posted the highest profit in decades. and our house, our rules. more than 60 of theresa may's own lawmakers send a message to the prime minister, pledging their support in return for a hard br

"surveillance" with francine lacqua. i'm going to join caroline on radio.ancine: president trump lashes critics.s he sends 14 tweets in 24 hours. traders brace for more than a quarter of a trillion dollars. how steeply will borrowing costs rise? detailing the divorce, the u.k. prime minister's post-brexit vision is starting to emerge. the island riddle remains unsolved. ♪ francine: m

francine lacqua and "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ " is up next. she will be rejoined by tom keene.juah joins the conversation with edwards and i -- anna edwards and i. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ the market prepares for a flood of bond auctions as treasuries reopened. the u.k. government is reportedly preparing to withhold billions in payments if the eu is not play ball on a trade. ceo.utgoing hsbc can his successor regain momentum? ♪ francine: good morning, everyone and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance."

. ♪ good morning, everyone and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance," i'm francine lacqua in