francine lacqua is standing by.have plenty to come up from the world economic forum here in davos. i am speaking to many chief executives. up.ane thiam is coming and we will speak to the chairman of ubs and bank of america to figure out what brexit means. we will talk about the u.s.-china trade, is it a slowdown, we will talk brexit. we will shortly be joined by andrey l. kostin, president, vtb bank. and we will speak about the question of the day. kostin also ask mr. about russian sanctions. anna: francine will be back shortly. let's take a moment to focus on the markets and the trading day we have here in europe. equity markets looking for guidance from the united states later. in europe, fascinating stories, hugo boss up by 5.5%. air france and some other airlines make some gains today. by 3.4%, they guided higher this morning. let's look at the downside, interesting stories coming in the banking sector. down. deutsche bank, and other big businesses falling. a move lower in the banking sector as a whole. the bigg

francine lacqua is standing by.an that knows a thing or two about the challenges of change in banking. arecine: he does and we pleased to be joined by him, thank you for being -- braving the cold. whether banksut in general, european ones, u.k. ones are ready for the next crisis. the banks are in very good shape, the level of capitalization is a multiple, our capital assets is more than 3.5 times what it was in 2007. the calculation of risk on our balance sheet is two to three times more stringent than it was in 2007. the level of liquidity we are required to hold, the banking , more than likely there will be another financial crisis. inwill occur somewhere else the financial ecosystem. i think this time there is a chance the banks will be the buffer as opposed to the cause. you see theere do next crisis coming from, what region? jes: what i would say is there is a high amount of debt that has been accruing in corporate balance sheets and on the back of risk free interest rates. hasink the banking sector shrunk its

in december, francine lacqua spoke with world bank of scotland ceo, who was clear about the costs and risks of disorderly brexit. >> from a business perspective, we need certainty. in a deal where you have negotiated hard, you are not going to get everything you want. there are things you're going to have to give up on to get something else. for me it is around how do we get certainty in the marketplace? investment is starting to not be made. countries are not investing long-term at the moment. they want to see certainty. that is what is important for the u.k. economy, build certainty, find ourselves through this. there is a deal on the table. make up your minds. >> do you see recession coming? >> i think if we don't get a certain position, i think there is a chance this economy will go into recession. i know anyone who says that, you are a remainder. no. i think uncertainty will push this economy too much slower growth. that is just reality. two years ago, we were being asked what would brexit look like, i said i think we would see a slowdown in the economy. you are just now seeing t

francine lacqua is there with turkey's finance minister.ou so much, i am delighted to be joined by the turkish finance minister. you have been meeting here with investors. 2017, there was a lot of talk around turkey. 2018 is not a very interesting year. what we have promised so far is because there are lots of opportunities. thankfully, we have these issues we have promised four. it covers what we have normally been planning, so far so good. the crucial stuff here is going to be in line with a quality pace of growth. and, this is what we have planned for 2019. there is a speculation that fourth-quarter gdp will be met with technical recession. is this healthy for a rebalancing. period?ancing >> we're going to close the following a. not the fourth quarter, but this quarter -- first quarter as well. we are pushing very hard on a soft landing purpose. and also normalizes all of these opportunities over time. turkey is going to be very much aligned with what they have planned for. they're still very much on track. francine: it will go back to t

francine lacqua is off.k on a huge constitutional debate in the united kingdom. first, first word news. >> president trump has invited leaders to a briefing on border security. he insists he won't sign spending bills without money for a wall on the border with mexico. on twitter, he suggested he wants a deal to and the stalemate over the partial government shutdown. republican senator mitt romney has blasted president trump. he used an opinion on article in the washington post to call his character shortfalls "glaring." he says his words have caused dismay around the world. the american arrested in russia is a former u.s. marine. the family says he was in moscow to attend a wedding. key is the director of global security for the auto parts maker borg warner. u.s. officials are asked to allow -- meet with him. the president of brazil is promising to tackle crime, corruption, and economic malaise. his economic goal is to free itself from socialism. investors are looking for more signs of the proposals being im

francine lacqua live from davos.rain, oldies. -- oldies. -- no casualties. >> let's start with of the weather. to me, its record snow. i remember there was snow like this. me and robert of kissinger were stuck in a snow bank. i would say for the beginning, record snow. francine: we were here and it was one of the days president trump was here, which blocked all of the traffic. there was so much traffic we're not going to get because president trump is not coming, president macron is not coming, and theresa may is not coming. -- davos our endeavors coverage gets into full swing. we split to the black rock vice-chairman, and the jpmorgan chairman, jacob frenkel. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news with sebastian salek. sebastian: british prime minister theresa may told the cabinet there is little chance the opposition parties will succeed. bloomberg learned she will seek changes to the irish backstop portion of the deal. the goal is to get pre-brexit supporters back on her side. economy slowed to its we

i am francine lacqua. haslinda: and i am haslinda amin.hey say the upside to know growth is no recession, they said. you have to wonder how much they can actually guess because of the uncertainty of politics. we are getting some news, this is the german business conference. we are spoken to a number of newsmakers for what they worry about. at 99.1,e index instead of the 100.7 estimated and expectations are also quite low. if you look at all regions in the world, you have the shutdown, brexit, trade tensions, and on all three parts, it seems like europe is kind of secondary, but the one that could be hit the most. haslinda: that is right, and that will impact sentiment and right now, it is all about sentiment. consumer confidence in all of asia is down. francine: coming up, we speak to a director from japan's mccoury holdings and we talk with the irish prime minister. before we get to that, let's get to first word news. the dup decided to back theresa may's brexit plans. the northern irish process propping up may's government is now willing

i'm francine lacqua at westminster.he future of the conservative government ahead of the vote that starts at 7:00 after the huge defeat of theresa may yesterday. let's talk a little bit about banks. our full coverage from westminster. let's get straight to matt miller at queen victoria street in london. of the day istion what issue has brexit in drowning out and to some extent u.s. banks are an incredibly important issue we are not focused on enough because of this brexit drama in the city of london. bank earnings are in full swing. so far they've been a mixed bag. a down arrow story. on monday citigroup reported a grim quarter. shares rallied after the lender said the worst was over. yesterday jpmorgan out with a miss in fixed income trading. record equity trading revenue. today we will hear from bank of america alongside goldman sachs. joining us to discuss further is alison williams, bloomberg intelligence senior analyst and john taft. on what weour take have seen so far with wells fargo and jpmorgan and city. is it

let's listen to sergio ermotti, who spoke to francine lacqua.ased that delivered a resilient result despite the challenging market conditions, which translating into the kind of bitter cocktail in the quarter. it's way too early to talk about first quarter. last year at this point in time it was a totally euphoric environment around the beginning of the year and the prospect for the full-year 2018. it is too early to make adjustment about q1, but also for the entire year. what happened in december, particularly in the , that quarter in general remains at the very i level -- eye level. >> do you expect difficult markets to continue? sergio: as we mentioned before, it's way too early to call. the outlook -- called outlook for the year -- call the outlook for the year. in the last seven years and laughter particularly, we saw so many movement -- last year particularly, we saw so many movements in sentiment and outlook that to make statements about how the quarter will look after three weeks in january is way too early. >> talk to me about outflows

good morning, welcome to "surveillance," i'm guy johnson in for francine lacqua. we have had a very interesting funny four hours. let's talk about what is happening here. europe is down, but not by much. europe does have luxury stocks. we will talk about those in a moment. the dax is under pressure. the cac is under pressure as well. the cac is being affected by some of those luxury stocks. the dax is a little richer with some of the tech stocks. they are under pressure. let's take a look at some of the individual moves to show you what is happening in the single stocks. story issupply chain present in europe. ams is down by 20% this morning. ross fromalso a read ac the apple story. some would perceive that as a luxury stock. as a result of which, they are extrapolating the china slowdown story into some of the luxury stocks. 2.53% this morning. the retail story is a little more nuanced this morning. we are seeing positive news out of the u.k. that is rippling into stocks like marks & spencer. there is also something going on with zalando. an m and h story seems t

i'm francine lacqua., bridgewater associates rose 14.6% according to documents seen by bloomberg. big gains from their pure alpha strategy came as other friends were hit by volatile markets, resulting in the industry posting one of its worst years ever. joining us now is mark gilbert. he writes about hedge funds, and is a columnist for bloomberg opinion. very briefly, because i know this is not your focus, how do they compare to its peers? >> they beat the aggregate losses last year by about 7% and what we are seeing is a broad dispersion. big winners in big losers. we are seeing a lot of funds losing money and so that dispersion and returns shows what a difficult year was for global markets in particular, where the trend was never your friend, was never anything to jump onto, that could deliver sustained, persistent performance. >> mark, here wrote an article on friday about the risk of losing money by shorting bonds. while custer your arguments. expect ofr people bond yields to sustain, they have been h

francine lacqua. lagarde, lacqua. francine: no piano bar. tonight. tom: let us continue.ant is you are talking to ken rogoff. this is a different davos. francine: it is a little different. i feel every year you have consensus on if it is the end of the world when it comes to the world economy, or we are doing great. this year, people are on the fence. down.ay we are slowing they look at politics and say this is my number one risk and i'm not sure what is going to happen. tom: joining us is pristine macquarrie best christine luck laqua. does it work? i think will have a different view. what is great is professor rogoff. francine: we focus on the middle east, we focus on the slowdown in the last decade in real estate. macspeak to the founder of de properties, and we talk trade, central banks, brexit, that is christine lagarde. later, the governor of the bank of canada is also here. tom: an important interview with italy and south africa's leadership. lot of good conversations. jon ferro to join us as well. from first word news in london come here is sebastian salek. sebasti

i'm francine lacqua in london, at westminster.ined in asia after china says it will cut taxes at large scale to support a slowing economy. they say they will remain flexible as the challenges become more complicated. this statement follows a series of weak data from exports, factory prices reigniting fears of global growth. joining us now, enda curran, our chief asia correspondent. what is the significance of these tax measures? >> well, francine, it's important on two fronts. firstly, it's a recognition that the economy is slowing down, perhaps more than anyone anticipated. we saw that across the industrial sector, retail sales, and now this latest move to cut taxes. jpmorgan estimates they are working around $300 billion usd. it's not immaterial. the second takeaway is that it's a shift away now from the old playbook, the ones you are familiar with in china in previous growth cycles, rolling out lots of debt, infrastructure spending. we know that has left a legacy of debt and credit in the economy that authorities are trying to

i'm francine lacqua.d to get commitment from qatar looking to finances after they fell almost 50% the past year. likely to be is based through the qatar investment authority. we will bring in steve aarons frankfurt. why is qatar investing now? >> i think the share price is right? low, and deutschebank has two or ting shareholders investment vehicles and qatar in davos to bloomberg tv that they are trying to invest invest in the german economy so this may be seen as invest in a y to very important element of the german economy. francine: how big of a deal is this for deutschebank? >> it certainly is helpful. hare prices went up today and deutschebank has seen a long is believed that it is on the right track and maybe hope it could turn it around and deutschebank needs ight now if they were to do a merger and we have been covering that speculation they want to capitalerger additional soingprobably be required this have investment is helpful. francine: what is in it for a chunk come in and get in deutscheban

in london, francine lacqua.g to do as we move through the day into the evening? francine: we will find out in about one hour. this is procedural. the u.k. parliament works differently to any other parliament in the e.u. clearer picture, it will be complicated to follow , but we will have a clearer picture on whether there is a vote parliament can get behind. hope that with that, we will have a clearer view of what theresa may's next step is. tom: extraordinary. may our european team is the most important team today. -- may be our european team is the most important team today. here is viviana. viviana: the trump administration imposing new sanctions on venezuela state-run oil company to pressure nicholas maduro to resign. block it from exporting crude to the restrictionsblock it from exporting crude to the u.s., that prompted a response from the leader. >> donald trump has upped venezuela. viviana: the u.s. and other countries have recognized one uaido aseying -- juan giad the president. the u.s. is filing crimi

let's head to the west and francine lacqua. >> thank you so much. without a doubt, my interview of the day. the ecb executive board member coins us. -- joins us. welcome. overall, we heard president draghi talk about risks to the downside. how would you explain it? why did we not foresee this? >> we did foresee this. the tone of our discussion yesterday was acknowledging there is quite a lot of uncertainty. quite a bit of uncertainty around. a lot of the uncertainty is political. first and foremost, global trade, which is a politically engineered uncertainty. we knew that growth would have to slow down. it started very high in 2017. the slowdown has surprised us. we have been surprised. we have to be very careful. we are underlining the data. in particular, what we have to understand is the persistence of euros on growth. >> when you talk about a shock to euro zone growth, how much of it is trade and how much of it is internal slowdown? >> a lot of it is trade. a lot of it comes from the outside. for months we have said most downside risks which com

guy johnson in for francine lacqua in london.of central bank discussion in the united states today. in washington, a new and return of speaker of the house. here is pelosi of california. >> we are not doing a wall. does anybody have any doubt? tom: absolutely extraordinary. some of the images. stephanie baker, what i would say is that the thundering silence of the grandal party. how to the republicans regroup on this new washington? challenge the main facing both houses of congress right now is to get the government back open. republicans in the senate have refused to accept what the democrats passed in the house. both sides seem to be digging in their heels. leaders of both parties will be meeting with trump today to try and see if they can break the impasse. it seems unlikely. there is no win for either side if they back down. trump has promised a will to his base. the democrats have promised to not build a wall. i don't see how they're going to break this impasse. even mitch mcconnell is saying that he is expecting the shutdow

francine lacqua braving the cold as well.oining us for this special edition of bloomberg surveillance. this is "bloomberg." ♪ >> 30 minutes left in the european trading day. i am guy johnson. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. >> let's talk about those markets and see what is happening. we do have a down drop in global equity markets. about .6%.00 down by a couple of things worth mentioning, the stoxx 600 are still trading above their 50 day moving averages which they punched through a couple of days back. we were always going to get a bit of a move lower. the fact it is holding about that average is significant. brent is good, that is worth bearing in mind. i am looks good. technical -- a bottom looks good. a number of technical things coming together. looks good. a number of technical things

francine lacqua is there to talk more about brexit.as surprised that there was a lot of talk about oceans, climate change, and the u.s.-china trade concerns, but people want to talk about brexit. we are delighted to be joined by carolyn fairbairn. you have to live this reality every day and every minute. our business is ready for a no deal brexit if it were to happen? carolyn: some are, the vast majority are not. if you are a big multinational, you have been preparing for a while, especially if you are in a highly regulated industry. talking to thousands of small businesses who say to us, we cannot be ready. they are saying that brexit simply cannot be managed and that is our big concern. francine: this is a no deal brexit or any form of brexit? carolyn: no deal brexit is the form of a brexit that business is fear the most test businesses -- businesses fear the most. francine: what is the reality? how could that actually happen? parliament does not really want it. we understand the government also probably does not want a no deal brexi

madrid,ncine lacqua in tom keene in new york.to try to figure out if there would be repercussions or even take commitment to be some of the salary of andrea. the chair was very tightlipped about that and wanted to just tell investors, let's focus on the results. you see spain doing better than expected. santanderonder where sits in the coming months as well. brexit it has been an extraordinary 24 hours for the united kingdom. we must go to anna edwards on the green in westminster. of the eight amendments, i only got to two. anna: that is ok. you are forgiven. all you needed to know is that most of them with the government's way. sorts.shevictory of doesn't have to brussels to try to renegotiate the backstop. brussels has said no and keep saying no. we wait to see what can possibly be achieved in two weeks that has not been achieved over the last two years. could we be back here on valentine's day looking at amendments once again? ministerirish prime asked the european union to hold their nerve. i believe somebody over in brussels

tom keene in new york, francine lacqua in london.our favorite moments of the year, talking about year past. more than any year, looking forward to next year. this year it was nuts. francine: [laughter] this year was nuts and it's nice to have this with you, tom. every time i think we're like an old married couple. we fight talks about the , markets, fights. it's nice to spend a little bit of time to discuss what 2018 was and what 2019 is going to bring. for many investors, 2018 closes with a sigh of relief. deutsche bank has called it the worst rout since 1901. trade wars, populism, and a broad based drop in global growth are just a few of the thing weighing on investor sentiment. after a year that wiped almost $15 trillion of the global stock market, what is in store for 2019? we are joined from new york by the chief equity strategist at blackrock, the head of commodities research at goldman sachs, and also simon french, panmure gordon's chief economist . a look ahead to 2019. as tom was saying, it has just been a whirlwind of thing

francine lacqua speaking to anna putin in spain.luxury is feeling a lift after lvmh reported strong growth in china. spoke to me exclusively yesterday, saying there is no slowdown in china. it looks like consumers are buying more handbags, less iphones. i am going to pick it up and we will go straight to that exclusive interview that you did. let's listen to this head -- the head of lvmh with annamarie. , we are havingrs a very, very strong economic trend. rates andlow interest availability everywhere. and also to the prices of many asset stocks intangible assets. this cannot continue forever. we are not so much worried for 2019, but within the next 2-3 years, there will be low interest rates. strong,e quite especially when that will happen, interest rates in europe really start going up. veryu are going to be cautious about the future, how do you prepare for that, what you think is maybe less spending from consumers globally? >> there will be a blip on the economy. we are ready to do this. contrary, it can also allow some opportuni

francine lacqua talking to sergio ermotti. we have a lot of interesting conversations still to come from davos. from london, from new york, from davos, this is bloomberg. ♪ taylor: i'm taylor riggs. look atget a u.s. markets. let's bring in abigail doolittle. abigail: take a look at the major averages. ,ot a lot happening there within between gains and losses for major averages. various factors influencing the markets. the stoxx up in a big way. daynx on pace for its best since 1992, putting up a blowout quarter. this is a company that makes the equipment that makes chips, so a tell on the chip sector. all of this could be somewhat lish. intent -- somewhat bullish. intel reports after the bell, so some work needed to be done to the upside to reverse that. just a quick look at facebook, the shares have been higher, now down .5% after a negative report saying that 50% of the company's users are fake. that is a big number if it is true. you would have to stink the stock -- you would have to think the stock will be plunging a litt

i'm francine lacqua and these the markets. we are seeing a little bit of thanusness after the worst expected data from china putting in worry about the strength of world economies. 10-year yield and slipping, dollar holding steady vote at se we have the the u.k. parliament tomorrow the 128.27. up fromll have our interviews the energy ministers from saudi arabia and we will talk about and global supply and emand and what that means for inflation. reviews to the first from new york city. >> the partial government longest in modern era lindsey graham saying he to d like president trump reopen on a temporary basis. not then declare a national emergency. no talks are scheduled for this week. chinese trade slumping in ecember for an unexpected fall underlying the impasse in economic trade. worst down 7.6% the since 2015 and left a surplus of $57.1 billion. the president of france says the step in a debate he hopes to dissipate the anger in the violent protests aying out topics and signaling he is not going to reverse tax .uts that t

we spoke with francine lacqua at davos. manye impact of brexit is fold. that the biggest impact of brexit is that this, once it happens, it will never be back. this is going to be a historical decision, whether or not the u.k. is going to be part of europe or not. the other area is people come and go. then policies might be different. but if the u.k. leaves europe, i think it will be for good. i believe this is the single biggest impacts of all time in europe. reporter: it looks increasingly likely the merger with ahlstrom will fail. is that a fair assessment? >> i don't know. i don't know, but it is what it is. i am trying to be a realistic person. with theeen trying globalto create a champion for the european base. by doing that, it was not about making even more money. by doing that, this will be for the customers in the long term, because innovation will be higher, the pace of productivity will be better, and by that, we can reduce cost. reporter: where did things go wrong? like thetalk almost merger didn't happen. my hypothesis is we are going to mak

the italian prime minister, inking to francine lacqua dallas.tastic stuff, one of the fascinating interviews coming the world economic forum. we have nosed over towards the close, sony over the ftse 500. the european close is coming up next and we will take you through all the numbers in the volume. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: less than 30 seconds until the end of regular trading this afternoon in europe. a lot of gray. london is lower. the spanish market is looking had aspanish banks have strong day relative to the european peers. and if we have a positive performance at of this market. ftse 100 rolling over, down by a 10th of 1% -- 8/10 of 1%. it is important what happens here and where we go next. miners, oil stocks and others thrown in, that is where the weight is. and the dax under some pressure. deutsche bank was down earlier on, it has come back, which is significant. 40 is down 1/10 of 1%. are very is having a very solid session leading the ftse 100. and let's focus on some of those individual names right now. this is what we have. metro b

spokene lacqua exclusively with ubs chairman axel weber about the future of banking in europe. >> i think industry is in the middle of a transformation already. the first 10 years after the largely saw ais reregulation of the industry, and many including ubs have changed their business model. we were among the first. over the next 10 years, there will be different trends that will shape the industry. technology is one of them. willll, the business model be challenged by disruption, and the question in the future will be -- can incumbents like ubs raised themselves to the challenge and transform rather than be disrupted? i think banks will continue to face challenges, so a think we will rise to the challenge. we will basically adopt what is good through financial technology. the business world will change. it will become more technology-driven. it will become even more client-centric because the main beneficiary of the technological disruption will be the clients. from beinghe banks disrupted not get left behind or become obsolete? >> the banks that will be disrupted are the banks which ha

i am francine lacqua in london. here are the markets, stoxx 600 gaining 0.8% as there is more belief in the market that president trump will focus on stock markets as he sees it as a stamp of approval on his presidency. this is for wti, the first time saw it abovet we $50. we are looking at pounds because of what we saw in parliament. we are a couple days away from the crucial vote on the theresa may deal. speak to the , youg member of the fmc can catch that exclusive interview later on at 6:30 p.m. london time. let's get to the first word news. in a primetime television address, president trump has demanded congress provide billions to combat illegal migration. trump said funding for the border wall was the only way to stop the partial government shutdown. democrats rejected his description of a crisis. lawmakers say he must stop holding the american people hostage. walldent trump: the border would very quickly pay for itself. the cost of illegal drugs exceeds $500 billion a year, the $5.7re than billion we have re

it is nine above zero. ♪ ♪ "surveillance," francine lacqua and tom keene.: the u.k. versus the u.s. tom: i put a quarter under the pillow and i got yelled at by various sundry. a quarter does not cut it. charles: just convince your child to -- tom: you do not put a share of ge under the pillow. charles: that would be nine dollars. tom: right now, a discussion on the family matters of the investment business and we say this for the great -- for the passing of the great jack vogel. you would posit that passive investors have a huge advantage from activist. charles: investing, doing fundamental research, changing boards of directors, influencing capital allocations decisions, designing more thoughtful compensation plans, that takes a lot of work. it takes a lot of work to get folks to change. you have to make constructive, engaged arguments. you have to win the trust of the board and those not doing that are candidly benefiting off our work and others. it is a great shame. it has been the ultimate free ride for many. our fiduciary responsibility is to protect

me francine lacqua. -- i'm francine lacqua.s in the fourth quarter, a warned and increased volatility geopolitical tensions could continue to weigh on bank activity. i spoke with sergio ermotti. has am pleased that q$ delivered a resilient result despite the challenging market condition which translated into a bitter cocktail. it is too early to talk about first quarter. point, it wasthis a euphoric environment around the beginning of the year. year,ospect for the full it is too early to make a judgment about q1 but also for the entire year. of course, what happened in ,ecember in the fourth quarter that remains at a high level. do you expect a difficult market to continue? i think, as i mentioned, it is too early to call the outlook for the quarter, for the year. years, and seven last year, we saw so many movements and changes of totiment and outlook that make a statement about how the quarter is going to look like after three weeks in january is early. francine: talk to me about net outflows of client money and asset manageme

i am francine lacqua here in london.are back with andrew wilson from ceo, global head of fixed income, goldman sachs and bhanu baweja, global head of emerging markets, ubs. we are talking about sterling. the point you were making, as you look at euro pound, nothing has moved. what does it take for that range to be broken? bhanu: we need to see better growth in europe. at this minute, growth in europe which is very low. draghi will have to knowledge that in the press conference next week. the market is pricing nothing on arrival, but in euro terms your sterling level against in the u.s.. you will need to see better data. the fact that sterling has moved has done nothing for euro. francine: what does it mean for mark carney? wherewe see a scenario inflation is shoring up, and we have to hike rates? you would not want mark carney's job right now, very difficult. francine: whose job would you want? a falling you have pound which is likely of a no deal brexit, you have inflationary concerns and the economic slowdown. the bank

francine lacqua in london, i am tom keene.n to profitability in europe by cutting thousands of jobs and do not rule out the possibility of closing european factories. they will try to reduce employment through voluntary members. jaguar land rover will cut as many as 5000 jobs in the u.k. calls talks with democratic leaders on the government shutdown a waste of time. democrats call him petulant. the president stormed out of a white house meeting. he blamed nancy pelosi and chuck schumer for being unwilling to negotiate over a border wall. they will not discuss border funding until the government reopens. tom steyer will not run for the democratic presidential nomination and will focus his money and energy on trying to impeach president trump. for a campaignup and put $120 million into the midterm election. mexico's finance minister says the peso can go higher than the dollar. >> i believe that it could be further down to 19 pesos per dollar, less than that perhaps. when i say 19, i say in the short-term. i would be very optimis

francine lacqua in london.new york. next week i'll be joining francine in london as we begin two weeks of really good coverage and conversation on international relations and, of course, the markets and the politics of the moment. you need a news update, your first word news, here's viviana hurtado. >> donald trump will argue there's a humanitarian and national security crisis at the border with mexico, and that a wall must be built. that's set the stage for him to declare a national emergency, and this is crucial, because this could allow him to build the wall without congressional approval. the stalemate over the wall has kept the federal government partially shut down. meanwhile, the internal revenue service will issue refunds to taxpayers even if the shutdown extends until filing season. that may reduce the pressure on congress and president trump to make a deal to reopen closed agencies. in previous shutdowns, the agency was barred from issuing refunds. today british prime minister theresa may will decide

francine lacqua.eadfast. theresa may is not returning, as they said about margaret thatcher, so how bad will it be for her tonight? francine: at the moment, we do not know. i have not heard anyone say she will win the vote, so it depends on how much she loses it by. if you look at the range of first implicitly say, they could be between 60 members of parliament voting against it, up to 200. depending on that, i think the outcome in the next couple of days will be on what sterling does and it depends on from the e.u. side, do they want to give a better deal to theresa may? it for deal gets voted down by 200 members of parliament, the eu will think, what do they want? we do not know if the we can offer anything to get it throu so let's start from scratch. there may be away for theresa may to put it to a second vote and get it through with helping hands from brussels. it depends on the numbers that vote against it. said, i have seen that that for example, maybe brussels will move. what is the basis for s

he told francine lacqua, the risk of a no deal brexit is very real. for business leaders, the deadline is only two months away. that seems awfully close. when the right political negotiations happen, we're still the phase where people are camped on their prefer outcome. too many people have not yet moved from their preferred outcome to an acceptable outcome that allows compromise. it's a process that will happen over the next days and weeks with people recognizing they cannot get their preferred outcome because there's a majority and we have to find a common ground that we can all live with an except which represents a sensible way forward for the country and protect the interest in living standards of the british people. anna: is there a greater than 50% chance we get a hard brexit? >> i want put a percentage on it. there is a risk and the risk is very real. equally, people on the other side need to recognize there is a large body of opinion in a parliament that would seek to avoid no deal at all costs including risking brexit itself. path is to find

matt: i was francine lacqua speaking exclusively with the ubs chairman..m. in london and hong kong. coming up later, don't miss our interview with the dallas fed president. that conversation at 12:30 p.m. london time. you don't want to miss it. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. we are about 54 minutes of the session. you can see gains in spain. and the smi also up. the rest of the indexes being dragged down by's tech stocks. especially in paris and frankfurt. we want to talk about china right now because there was an awesome story this morning. it has become the first country to land a probe on the far side of the moon. the cap's a series of lunar missions that china has launched over the past two years as part of its plan to become one of the world's top three aerospace powers. join us now is bloomberg's beijing bureau chief. how does this launch fit into the program that china is pushing? >> it was an amazing day here today landing on the far side of the moon. the country is extremely proud that hap

there is our data post star herself, francine lacqua desk star star -- davos herself, francine lacqua this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets: european open. 15 minutes from the start of cash trading. across the board following these in gains in the asian cash trade. 0.5%.utures up u.s. futures pointing to a positive open. we could end the week on a high note is what i'm trying to say. anna: amazing to see despite the talk about what could begun gone trade. let's talk about brexit. theresa may has refused to budge on her red lines. politicalher in a stalemate with jeremy corbyn. matt: it also limits the prime minister's options when she had stood brussels to seek further assurances with the eu. she is not going to davos because she actually has stuff to do over the weekend, tracked figure out the plan be. let's get the bloomberg business flash. debra: bird box and other new shows helped attract millions of new subscribers to netflix, but florida sales growth disappointed investors. revenue rose 27% through december but came in slightly side of expectations. alsont

manus: that was francine lacqua speaking with axel weber, the chairman of ubs.he full episode airs tonight at 7:30 u.k. time in london and hong kong. my guest host is the cio at royal london asset management. great lines from axel weber, saying we don't want everyone involved in wealth management. how do you look at the banking sector? we have put together the value from the kbw bank index along with euro stocks banks. they both have a trend. is there anything in european banks you would like to court? or is it just too early to reengage? >> he made some important points i would agree with. ubs was one of the first to move and addressed its problem with investment banking in the post financial crisis issues. it focused on its core business, wealth management. it clearly understands the importance of technology in order to provide outcomes to customers. the one area i disagree with him, being a customer and an organization not royal london, we think it's going to be an increasing need for all numbers in society in terms of investment solutions and outcomes for lo

today on "leaders with lacqua," we meet paul bulcke, the chairman of nestlÉ. paul bulcke

today on "leaders with lacqua," we meet axel weber. axel weber, thank you for joining us.ou have a great global view of the main challenges facing financial institutions. what are they? how will this and astray be transformed in 10 years from now? be transformed in 10 years from now? axel: the industry is in the middle of a transformation. after the financial crisis, the reregulation of the industry, and many, including ubs, have changed their business model. we were among the first. now over the next 10 years, different trends will shape the industry. technology is one. the business model will be challenged by disruption. the question in the future will be, can incumbents like ubs rise to the challenge and transform themselves, rather than be disrupted? we have seen disruption in many industries. technology is the key driver for that. banks will continue to face those challenges. i think we will rise to the challenge, adopt what is good through financial technology. the business model will change and become more technology driven, even more client-centric, because the mai

tom keene and francine lacqua off the green. the brexit day continues forward. central-bank theories -- and it is important to hear from all of the president's. dennis local -- dennis lockhart spoke to us. >> they would have every justification, if they wish, to not proceed in lockstep with their earlier increases, but rather to simply take a pause and wait and see. it would not necessarily signal to rate-- an end increases but simply a pause to evaluate. tom: i think we should follow up , we spoke about economic theory. ram --a of difficult a disequilibrium, there is always difficult of ram -- disequilibrium. we in a disequilibrium stage where we are making it up or some kind of theoretical structure? david: what we are seeing is a cyclical move upwards and the phillips curve which is building inflation pressure. the fed is treading more calmly. very differenta point of the economic cycle to elsewhere and where that plays is in fx. it has played primarily through the dollar and that swing in the dollar, like we saw in 2015 and 16 is what snaps back. tom: if we

i am francine lacqua in london. we are seeing a lift off when it comes to european stocks, gaining 0.3%, following a little movement when it comes to the asian stocks that were also gaining. renminbi, 6.70 4, 1 of the main points we are looking at to see whether there is a agreement between the u.s. and china, but this goes back to what we have been looking at. inflation data in china and some entry points for investors. pound, 120 -- 1.2734, because we vote andaway from the getting breaking news out of italy which may or may not move italian bonds, but that is something i'll watch in the next minutes. 1.6%trial output falling for december, worse than expected because we were expecting 0.3%. coming up, the u.s. government shutdown drags on and we will talk to a california congressman at 11:30 a.m. london time. first, let's get the bloomberg first word news in new york stock -- city with viviana hurtado. president trump most likely declare a national security emergency if congress doesn't agree to funding for his wal

lacqua as well. being here because you talk about the people that are not here, donald trump, emmanuel macron, they are dealing with concerns at home and there is a little bit of uneasiness which people cannot figure out. my manager saying, the markets will be a little bit better and that nobody is really pointing to where they are seeing a lot of growth. why is the market interpreting something that could turn quite ugly? tom: many things to talk about. many years on brexit. here is the rihanna hurtado. viviana: -- has fallen from the top of the auto world. ghosn quit as chairman and ceo of renault. chart -- carlos ghosn resigned last night and now it is time to put a new -- and place because the most important --ng is to repair the future viviana: he always -- he already quit his position at nissan and mitsubishi. hisident trump has put off state of the union address until after the partial government shutdown is over. that comes after president -- after house speaker nancy pelosi blocked him from

today on "leaders with lacqua," we meet axel weber. axel weber, thank you for