jonathan: president lagarde with some more headlines.s its favorable conditions when it is a recovery. italy in mind with the 10 year yield, down through 1% over the last couple of weeks. i think that is the focused going into june 10 for the easy be meeting and that conference with president lagarde. tom: in the ecb's defense, they have been clearer about extending their timeline out. i think they have done a much better job than the fed of saying 2022 and even 2023. jonathan: it is time contingent forward guidance instead of state contingent forward guidance, where we say when we get there, we will do something. are we done? ? tom: we are done. i'm looking at the bond market. do you say curve flatter? we haven't talked about it in ages. but there's some really interesting fixed income. jonathan: it has stopped steepening. i think you can say that. real yields were higher. tom: to tell you about "the real yield" this afternoon at 1:00 p.m., this will be something to get you ready for the weekend with a fixed income market coming out, th

tomorrow, we hear from christine lagarde.hen you see a 1.22 handle and you have the recovery taking place in europe, at what moment does this start to hurt potentially the european experts? we will hear from madame lagarde and philip lane on that. bitcoin down under 10% -- down 10%. we are under $40,000. a huge wipeout. what's going on this morning at least, it does not come from elon musk, but it comes from beijing. the pboc taking to wechat, making sure that chinese consumers know that you cannot purchase items with a digital token. manus: breaking below that 200 day moving average. there is no contagion impact, i challenge that. we have a guest. it is berenberg senior economist kallum pickering and he says this is his quote, even beyond the next two years, we expect the -- to return to a pre-lehman normal. as well as a less depressed central bank rate and bond yields. to the moon. here is kallum pickering. good morning to you. two year breakeven expectations at a 15 year high. the breadth between that and nominal is at a r

what does foreign-exchange say right now about the cards that madame lagarde has been dealt?esis of everything jon has been talking about in bonds, in foreign-exchange, in the real economy, what does it suggest to the head of the ecb? jane: before we head of the -- before we had the head of the ecb, we have their chief economist to speak this afternoon. it is going to be interesting to see how these be react not necessarily to the level of the euro against the dollar. that is going to be interesting, too. but what has really caught my attention this week, and risk to what is happening in -- in respect to what is happening in crypto's and various commodities, i think it is the moving european bonds. we have seen italian bonds. we have seen german 10-year buns returning to potentially positive territory. that is something which i think is a really big potential new story, and something which i think the ecb will really want to address. jonathan: the federal reserve has a new framework which basically ties the hands of pretty much everyone on the flimsy, for all of the voting me

i think i do agree with christine lagarde that inflationary pressures are temporary.t is key right now in europe is that energy prices are the ones driving the increase so they are of 140% since last year if you look at oil prices in euros. but then they come through for the producer price indices. if you look at the pass-through to headline inflation to europe, it's really small. there are less worries on this site to have and of course, what matters for the ecb is the medium to longer term picture so we were talking about pictures. we are just coming out of a crisis. in our view, the employer is not going to recover before the beginning of 2023 but it will take time for employees to be able to demand higher wages so that the inflation in the medium-term will not recover so quickly. manus: good morning. as you mentioned, producer prices are rising. we are seeing the surge in energy prices. the commodity story is very big. why do european companies not have the pricing power to pass this on to the consumer? marion: this is something we saw before the pandemic as well.

geoff: on the euro taper, i think madame labarge -- madame lagarde has been clear on this.emember, they scaled up their purchases earlier this year in response to the third wave, so if we go back to the pace before the third wave, then it is tapering relative to where we are right now, but it is just kind of taking a step back, catching up to where they were on an operational basis. if they are willing to actually signal, maybe even contemplate a decline, that is a game changer. i don't think the ecb is ready for that yet. but as with the fed, right now that dynamic in terms of real yields, is a real yield story, and inflation expectations story. of course, you will see it in other real assets as well. for right now, i think that is keeping its cards close to his chest. alix: there are some idiosyncratic things happening, like in new zealand, canada, etc. which currency crosses may be the most sensitive and vulnerable to a more hawkish central bank, and how does that affect the markets? geoff: i've got to in mind in particular. one is australia, and the other is sweden. in

tom: did lagarde do that? jonathan: i don't know. in the bond market, 1.62 50%. yields unchanged. positive by about 1.9%. we had about $1.20 to wti, $63.11. tom: to get you recalibrated on global wall street and particularly american wall street, after saying 200,000 jobs will be jettisoned on wall street, mike mayo joins us from wells fargo ahead -- from wells fargo as head of u.s. large-cap bank research. this is all anybody is talking about, and you are the one to give perspective. can a duo run consumer banking? they are going to try that a jp morgan. is it feasible? mike: i am never a fan of dual heads. having said that, jp morgan cultivates a culture of collaboration, so whoever collaborates better is ironically the one who could ultimately win. we have two women who are in contention to take jamie dimon's job. having said that, you know when jamie dimon retires? n+5. add five years to whenever you ask him the question. [laughter] but you do have two women and kill heston -- women in contention. tom: this is absolutely original stuff. to your research note, which stopped wal

imagine on june 10 he might get a little more of that from president lagarde. the euro weaker.a real shift here. i would go back again to the 120 for the birthday of the dow jones industrial average. "the wall street journal" writing up a beautiful treatment on the scope and scale of the doubt. this is my parents heritage. they were depression babies. the dow did not hit a new high off 1929 until 1953. we have no modern analog to that. jonathan: do youquote the temperature in fahrenheit? tom: we do in america. jonathan: quite meaningless. lisa: that is a low blow. jonathan: we can wrap it up. my favoritequote of the doubt, quoting the scores of again nobody plays anymore. that is my view of the dow. whatever that is worth. happy birthday to the dow jones industrial average, 125 years is great. tom: 34,000, which i never thought we would bring to see. we welcome all of you worldwide on radio and television. i look, lisa, and where we are, this to of an end, stop lisa, to me, the end of may is we are resetting what growth will be later this year. i would say we're getting away fr

we heard lagarde saying she thinks it is too soon to be talking this way. we might get pushed back and then attention will swing back to the fed meeting in june. alix: does that mean the dollar downside is done? jane: we sought to get to june 10, we stop the speculation the euro zone or europe will have a good second half of the year because of the vaccine rollout catching up. u.s. central bankers have been successful in pushing back against inflation talk. we had more comments today. from that point of view i think we still have a tug-of-war in the markets about inflation, will it be in the u.s.? we still have this debate coming through. we have choppy conditions because of that. ultimately when we talk about the inflation debate, i think it will be about the u.s. and the fed. we have to wait a few months until may be that jackson hole meeting to get a low bit more traction. guy: where you think the line in the sand is for the ecb? 1.22 used to be the number. do think they will be comfortable with 1.25? jane: most people would say it depends on the pace. i

it links writing, i'm sorry, madame lagarde with ecb is actually watching vaccination and mask policy. jonathan: do you think we are thinking about the wrong central bank when we consider the source of a taper tantrum later this year? tom: we will have to see. it's going to be a surprise along the way. a terrific chart this morning showing the federal reserve system is really an unbalanced if you versus the other sense -- unbalanced view versus other central banks. the guy from deutsche bank states, no one will want to buy u.s. bonds. we are getting into balance sheet dynamics off of the rates story. jonathan: you have been talking about this for a while, either yields need to climb are the dollar needs to move the other way. lisa: this is something people have been looking at and wondering what's going to happen. the reopening trade in europe seems to be going strong. if you take a look at high-frequency data, it is already bleeding into second-quarter data. it is not necessarily even waiting for europe to find some sort of agreement on travel. will it be enough? does the u.s. except

what does lagarde do at the next meeting? is about asset and flows or interest-rate discussion? jon: i think it will be asset purchase discussion. tom: i agree. jon: around the dollar where it is are now, 1.21. tom: i agree. i have no idea what i'm talking about. jon: thank you for admitting that. cheers to that as well. is this enough to me? i think 10 to 11 minutes of this would be enough for me. tom: 10 to 11 minutes and we did not take transitory wants. jon: i want to do this slowly, a block at a time. so we do 10-11 minutes today and then i move on. so i will go into the other room now. maybe on monday, i come back for a little more, then tuesday. tom: bring lisa with you. jon: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv. tom: i can't stand this guy. go way. ♪ -- away. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the fighting between israel and the palestinians has taken a u-turn. israeli ground forces are firing artillery at targets in the gaza strip. israeli warplanes continued their own but bartman. meanwhile, still firing rockets int

i think we see people like janet yellen and charlie monger and christine lagarde and jamie dimon justst absurd. honestly i think it's a symptom of wall street's fear bitcoin is a threat to they're legacy systems. charles: one narrative that has been around to your point, we saw it play out last week, colonial pipeline. now there is a new report saying they paid up to $90 billion of bitcoin. it is the dark side. yellen said mostly crypto is tool for extortionists or terrorists. does this add credibility to that and could it actually get some regulations going? >> absolutely untrue, patently false, frankly stupid. focus on the data not the false narratives, right? less than 1% of bitcoin transactions are result of elicit activity. over well majority of those are retail scams, no different someone calling your house they're from the irs taking away your property. criminal activity on cryptocurrency has dropped dramatically. it was 2.1% in 2019 and less than half a percent in 2020. good old-fashioned cash is the choice for criminals. 1.$6 trillion laundered every single year. anyone that

time, the ecb publishes the account of april's policy meeting, when christine lagarde pushed back againstgestions that they were thinking of scaling back stimulus. a little bit later at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time, we will have the figures for u.s. retail sales for the month of april. what echoes of that strong cpi number will we see in the data? later, robert kaplan takes part in a discussion hosted by the university of texas school of business. a really interesting bloomberg intelligence report called kaplan: the lone hawk calling for tapering talk. stocks are back in the green. signs of a strengthening u.s. labor market ease some concerns over rising inflation. we will discuss next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ anna: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: european open." 40 minutes to go until the start of the equity trading session. looks as if we are going to end the week and slightly better form then we saw earlier on this week. gains of 1.1% on the msci asia pacific. looking at the nasdaq, and over the last -- looking at nasdaq futures, which do suggest we will see some upside. we are still underwa

health officials downgraded covid alert levels to three from four meeting transmission is no lagardeealth of 40's are running about a fungal infection seen in some covid-19 patients that can disfigure facial features or can kill. health officials say patients who have been on medication for some time or had prolonged stays in icu are particularly susceptible. india is in the middle of the world's fastest-growing coronavirus outbreak. sources tell us the u.s. is planning a summit with companies impacted by the global chip shortage. they include intel, samsung, samsung, amazon and gm. according to an invitation, converse secretary gina raimondo convened may 20 two is gus how to bring together chip suppliers and consumers. last week she stressed, the u.s. is unlikely to come up with a quick fix to the global shortage. president biden says there is no evidence russia is involved in the ransomware attack that crippled the colonial fuel pipeline. the president says the perpetrators may be based in russia, and so moscow bear some responsibility. colonial says it expects a pipeline to be via