present lagarde? pres. lagarde: everybody has to do what everybody has to do, a man has got to do what a man has got to do. monetary policy bankers have to decide on monetary policy and fiscal policy makers have to do their job. it is true that there are circumstances where working hand-in-hand and supporting each other has proved helpful. i think we had a very good demonstration this morning in one of the lectures we had. i think what we have very clearly stated as a governing council of the whole euro system is governments, please, it is time now to roll down the measures you have decided for covid and energy purposes, and that you adopt a path that will take you to better sustainability of public finance, so we hope to see that, and the physical space that has been allowed for various nonconventional fiscal support that were decided back in 2022 in 2023. much should be rolled back in the course of 2023 and should not be expanded into a 24, barring another major shock. that is our recommendation and we ma

we will hear from christine lagarde shortly. we will get to that speech when she commences. big, big indicator for where markets are headed from here all of that coming up at sintra. the forum for all of the central bankers around the world as for european markets, you see that pretty much the gains are broad based. all of the indices trading nicely in the green. this is after some mixed activity yesterday the cac 40 in the green. the rest of them less so the dax is up with a bounce in cyclical names that got a beating. banks and basic resources doing well insurance and real estate are making a comeback. ftse 100 in the uk is a far cry from 7,600 the level from six weeks ago and now sitting .70% stronger. fintech space is posting a profit and that is leading the sector and having an impact overall. the swiss defensive index is up .10% as well. in terms of sectors, this is how the split is you actuhave utilities up .40% some defensive names are doing well autos are getting hit down .80%. this as that sector prices in the weakness we were talking about the surprisingly weak pm

president lagarde? we have seen two negative quarters of gdp. pres. lagarde: i think the first quarter of 2023 was completely flat. it was not negative. so technically i think you could argue that we did not see a recession, but it's stagnant to say the least. the expectations for q2, particularly in the industrial sector, if i look at pmi numbers, are not giving us great hope there will be a strong recovery. we see a second half of 2023 up from the first half, certainly, but moderate. we have a 0.9% forecast for the whole year. sara: do you think you can get away with this tightening cycle without dragging europe into recession? pres. lagarde: our baseline does not include a recession, but it's part of the risk out there. sara: are you willing to tolerate a recession? gov. bailey: the thing for us is, if you go back to last autumn, last november, when we did a forecast, we were predicting quite a long but quite shallow recession. the economy has turned out to be much more resilient so far. i think you

lagarde will most likely be watching this. why these markets, why the equity markets are rallying is because they smell a pause and they smell a peak in rates. not so much a reduction in rates. >> that's not true of europe. we could get another 50 basis points. they could hike another hundred 25 basis points. >> you have to remember, the market acts on reality and not expectation. just a year ago, everyone was expecting europe to be in a massive recession. there was a concern about the ukrainian war, higher oil prices, gas prices paid none of that comes to bear. the european commission is increasing growth from .8 to 1%. is increasing growth next year from 1.4 to 1.6%. you've got underlying growth. maybe you do have sticky inflation like you do in the u.k., with our fundamental reasons for that. you still get growth, and under that scenario, the reality is that the recession isn't there, and earnings can come through and markets will move higher in our opinion. >> is europe make sense? there are new highs in luxury. that is al

i think yesterday was a lot of focus from lagarde, and the increase on core inflation. the risk? wages are catching up, but that will cause further rate increases. prices will spiral. we are not there, but there is some risk of this materializing. this will keep the ecb concerned. they will leave rates at those levels for a longer period over time to get inflation where we want it to be. dani: if we need to do something to make sure we do not have a spiral, is a soft landing achievable? luigi: we think the economy will continue to run for a while, but probably will create inflation towards 2%. the ecb will not be able to slow down the economy as they have done over the past year with inflation. [indiscernible] dani: before we let you go, there are a lot of different central-bank decisions we could talk about, i want to ask you one question on the u.s. we had those job claims yesterday. we have seen for a couple of weeks in a row they run higher by about 20,000 than expected. is this trend believable? are we starting to see some cracks in the u.s. labor market? luigi: i

and christine lagarde today, she mentioned that in her more marks.conditions tightened and started much earlier, but we have seen some of the impact on smaller banks. i think a bit of first preview is probably welcome. however, if it is too much going against the action from the central bank, it is possible they will want to see it differently. >> the markets handle the rate hikes, and certain sectors see record highs, but on the flipside, that will end, and that will wait european equities. how do you trade opposite views? you have to go back to basics and ask where you see growth and where you see trend growth read the underlying is that there is volatility. in that volatility, you want to make sure that you have the ability to add to the stocks that you like on a long-term basis. you know, cyber ai, technology as well as mitigation and adaptation to climate, diversification, growth, value, dividend, all of this is still very much at play at this point, and that is what we have to do. >> do i wait to buy european bonds? when is the right moment to

president lagarde says inflation pressures and economic uncertainty are making a july hike likely. the yen continues to slip after the bank of japan keeps its ultra-loose monetary policy. governor ueda is ready to add stimulus if needed. bloomberg understands that micron is nearing a $1 billion investment in india. the u.s. chipmaker has announced expansion in china despite beijing cracking down on its chips. let's take a look at features. we are seeing a bit of gains. we started the day lower certainly in asia. remember there is triple witching, this is when the expiry date of a big pile of options estimated around $4 trillion. the traders will have to decide whether to trace -- chase recent gains. you can see some quirky movements in the markets this morning. the other thing we are trying to figure out is inflation. it feels like every two days the markets worry that how the central banks are doing with inflation. a lot of folks on china. not only are we expecting stimulus when it comes to infrastructure but also concern about the unemployment figure for the youth in china. a lot

. >> for you, president lagarde? pres. lagarde: likewise, a man has got to do what a man has got to do at a woman has got to do what a woman has to do, as well, thank you. >> chair powell, i have not seen you stressed. chair powell: we have a job to do, we know that. we know that society is counting on us to do this job and that really matters. it can matter for decades and benefit people over time. i think we all know that, and we will do the things we need to to restore it. >> governor ueda is feeling good? gov. ueda: i do not know there would be so much traveling and some in a. [laughter] [applause] >> welcome to the world of central banking. thank you for taking the time today and all of my questions. it was a pleasure. thank you. [applause] >> you have been listening to the central-bank forum, coming from the ecb forum in portugal. interesting to see the four central bankers on stage, discussing where policy is going to go. a number of takeaways from that. in many ways, hawkish message that we have seen reiterated fro

jerome powell leaves the door open to consecutive rate hikes with christine lagarde and andrew bailey also seeing more tightening as inflation remains sticky. top banks all past the fed's annual resiliency test, clearing a key hurdle for returning dollars to shareholders. and signals that an industry glut is easing. we check-in on the data markets, it was a mixed picture when it came to the close of course in the u.s. yesterday. we are weighing up the comments it came through from the central bankers, andrew bailey, christine lagarde of the ecb, locking in essentially the height coming through in july, that is the expectation and there was no pushback from christine lagarde on that front, though she was uncommitted when it comes to the september decision. that remains live for the ecb. jerome powell and the fed reiterating the options to go to again in terms of heightening at the fed, keeping the door open to that prospect as it continues that hawkish measure, as we check in on the markets and have a look at the futures or at least the s&p over the last two days. again a bit of a mixe

. >>> and manufacturing comes in soft in germany and spain and christine lagarde says it is still tooarly to call a peak in price growth. >> underlining inflationary pressures remain high. although some are showing signs of moderation, there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked >>> good morning welcome to "street signs." apple revealed the headset after years of speculation the first hardware launch in almost a decade. it will cost $3,500 when it is released next year the company touted the use in gaming and working shares fell from earlier in the morning. ceo tim cook hailed the potential of the technology. >> this is the day that is years in the making. one that i've been looking forward to i believe that augmented reality is a profound technology blending digital content with the real world can unlock experiences like nothing we've ever seen. so, today, i'm excited to announce an entirely new a.r. platform with a revolutionary product. >> apple announced a content partnership with disney as part of the event with bob iger making a surprise appearance he believe

madame lagarde has been very clear on this. this is a central bank, as she likes to say, that is on a journey, on a path of its own. it is not fed dependent, it is data dependent. that points to another hike today. some people will say this meeting today, it is boring because we know exactly what's going to happen, but i would beg to differ actually. this is a meeting that can be very interesting because it really does mark the beginning of the endgame for the european central bank. monetary policy, when you approach the final stage, does the exact moment when the trade-offs become complicated, when maintaining that consensus in the governing council obviously starts to get heated, and you have to get to a point where you feel you have done enough now so that the monetary -- the forces of monetary policy do bring down inflation. today, it is a meeting where there is a lot more that meets the eye. dani: and one of those things that's going to be more important than again just that headline figure is the economic projections from

let's talk about christine lagarde, the president of the ecb.how struck the same tone with economic indicatindicators >> we are data dependent we will decide on a meeting-by-meets ing basis. if our baseline stands, we know we will likely hike again in july >> lagarde said europe's economy is showing signs of stagnating, but not factoring in a recession at this stage. >> we did not see a recession. it is stagnant to say the least. the expectations for q2 for manufacturing is not giving us great hope there would be a strong recovery. we see a second half of 2023 up from the first half, certainly, but moderate we have a 0.9% forecast for the whole year >> do you agree with chair powell can you get away with the tightening cycle without dragging into recession? >> our baseline does not include recession. it is part of the risk out t there. >> i thought it was fascinating to hear she was hawkish and in l line with the last ecb meeting she seems relatively relaxed about the economic outlook which is surprising to me given the forward looking indicator

sending howitzers to ukraine, even european solidarity at the highest level is failing, christine lagarde. today was cold, as usual, the cbr raises rates. and this is not the final. but what started in italy with madame lagarde, probably, there is no floating interest loan, ironically, the deputy prime minister, pickles, the foreign minister is simply furious. i am disappointed with the work of the bank and these cynical announcements declared melting for the first time calling a spade a spade. it's all about ukraine we have inflation, which is very different from inflation in the united states, our inflation is provoked raising the price of everything because of the war, the rise in the value of the currency will bring business to its knees with such rates, we risk falling into a recession, the good news from lagarde is family tragedies and bankruptcies. but they tried to put russia on their knees, recalled victor robert, who always calls everything by its proper name, the sanctions failed. i'm just surprised that we haven't been able to develop them adequately stated veins. you are an e

kazuo ueda, jerome powell, christine lagarde, andrew bailey it doesn't get much better than that good luck this afternoon sara will have much more, moderating that panel. as i just mentioned, jerome powell, christine lagarde as well as the heads of the bank of england and bank of japan all starting at 9:30 eastern time. >>> joumanna bercetche is standing by in london with your global briefing. hi, yjoumanna. >> hi, dom in an exclusive conversation with cnbc, google's leader said they want to build a path safely and responsibly. they're working on technologies to make it easier to distinguish between hue panhandle an ahuman and ai-generated and as part of the deal, volvo will add the north american charging standard port to all new cars starting in 2025. >> joumanna bercetche with the headlines. thank you very much. >>> back here, the supreme court is taking on the constitutionality of wealth taxes and whether congress can have any say on that whatsoever. the court's justices could put a stop to the major democratic policy before it's even enacted. robert frank is here with more at wha

christine lagarde talking about a strong labor market.uy: the fed seems less concerned than it did very recently. we will talk about that and figure out what is happening here. if you want to deliver a hawkish message, give the job to christine lagarde. here's what she had to say today. >> inflation has been coming down but projected to remain too high for too long. we are determined to ensure inflation returns to 2% medium-term target and attire -- in a timely manner. the governing cancel decided -- council decided to raise the three interest rates by 25 basis points. alix: for more on the right decision we are joined by bloomberg's and read taddeo. >> it's another 25 basis point hike. you best believe it will not be the last one. she has brought back the very explicit forward guidance, telling reporters and also the markets -- that is who she is talking to -- there will be another hike in july. she did not to say once. she said it twice. with that kind of statement today you have opened a debate about what happens in september. the othe

christine lagarde will give a welcoming speech at 9:00 a.m. u.k. time.s is bloomberg. ♪ when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets. before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose. golo takes a systematic approach to eating that focuses on optimizing insulin levels. we tackle the cause of weight gain, not just the symptom. when you have good metabolic health, weight loss is easy. i always thought it would be so difficult to lose weight, but with golo, it wasn't. the weight just fell off. i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will re

jerome powell, andrew baylor -- bailey, christine lagarde. but start with chair powell, it's not that he was more hawkish than we heard lately. he was certainly hawkish after the last meeting when he paused but said more rate hikes are coming and he testified to congress and again, reiterated more rate hikes. so today, uh, he started by saying you know what? policy has only been restrictive for of the a while. it needs to get more restrictive and when asked about back-to-back rate hikes, he left the door open. let's listen. tirone powell: we will move the decisions with a little bit more time between them in an effort to get more information to the data to see how much restraint is coming from these you know, the pipeline from rate hikes we only made now in many cases six, eight, nine months ago but i would not take moving at consecutive meetings off the table. kathleen: christine lagarde at this meeting yesterday, the opening day of the conference she was very clear that more rate hikes are coming and unless something big happened, another r

christine lagarde did not want to commit where peak rates could be. is there a sense of how much higher they're going to have to climb? >> july seems like a done deal. another 25 for sure when the governing council meets. as for september, you have this group of governing council members that essentially says i think it looks very likely it's going to happen. you have another group that says ready much on the fence if the data supports it. there are some people who are hesitant, concerned that we've already done a lot. ultimately, doing more would do more harm than good to the economy. it's not clear. if i had to draw a conclusion, the chances we will see another hike in september are stronger than the other outcome. guy: i had to look up mount iger. can we have three central banks doing three relatively different things with their rates? >> not to a huge extent. it depends on who's got the cleanest and eight. the ecb has the cleanest inflation mandate. if you look at the fed, it tends to react to growth over inflation. the record says elsewise. the b

that includes the fed chair and the ecb's christine lagarde.et's listen in. >> thank you so much, sara it's very nice having you in this closing moment. i'll take this opportunity to thank all the contributors, those who have prepared papers, those who have worked with the presenters and all the panel members. it's been really, really a rich conference, and i want to thank you. so, as far as the european central bank is considered and the euro system at large, we have covered a lot of ground we have increased our interest rates by no less than 400 basis points in a very short order, less than a year, and we still have ground to cover and i think that, as i said earlier on, we are data dependent. we will decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis, but we know that we have ground to cover, and if our baseline stands, then we also know that we will very likely hike again in july. >> what about september? >> that, i will not tell you, and for a very simple reason that i just mentioned. we are data dependent. we'll decide meeting-by-meeting, and we'll tel

christine lagarde and other good people will come in as well.ning statement of christine lagarde with the questions i will be listening most closely to the intention -- and the rest as well. lisa: do you think this will be more interesting than the fed press conference? tom: that was also interesting yesterday. that is a good question, no, i think she will hedge it in a political way or yesterday was more of a free for all. we will go there for now this is the president of the ecb. they have a whole process over there. they have to move the cables away and all of that. lisa: have you noticed that he is on time the door opens within 30 seconds of the 2:30 p.m.: eastern time mark. and she -- 2:30 p.m. eastern mark. >> my name is -- we are always in hydra format. and we are following through with video. when you have a question please turn on the camera and microphone so we can see you with regards to this. christine: good afternoon to all of you. the president and i welcome you to our press conference. inflation has been coming down, but is projec

but what started in italy with madame lagarde, probably, there is no floating interest loan, the deputyad of the foreign ministry, ironically, is simply furious. i am disappointed with the work of the bank and these cynical announcements declared melting for the first time calling a spade a spade. it's all about ukraine we have inflation, which is very different from inflation in the united states, our inflation is provoked by an increase in the prices of everything due to the war, the increase in the value of the currency will bring business to its knees with at such rates, we risk going into recession, the good news from lagarde is family tragedies and bankruptcies. but they tried to put russia on their knees, reminded viktor urban, who always calls everything by its proper name, the sanctions failed. i'm just surprised that we couldn't develop them adequately, the hungarian newspaper example stated, cooperation between the west and ukraine , the fiasco of the idea that ukraine can win the war against russia is absurd. it's absolutely impossible, that's why i always speak for peace pr

president lagarde says inflation pressures remain powerful and borrowing costs will be raised further to tackle them. we will have more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> indicators of underlying inflationary pressures remain high. and although some are showing signs of moderation, there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked. francine: european central bank president christine lagarde cementing expectations for another interest-rate hike at next week's meeting. let's bring in bloomberg's western europe economy editor. so good to have you on the studio. we're expecting another projected increase in july. klaus knott is not painting a rosy picture. >> just spoke in luxembourg. his point is we are seeing the second-round effects. inflation which up until now was primarily energy inflation driving headline inflation, now we're seeing that in wages and services. that means it will take longer for inflation to calm down. right now we know that last week we got the numbers and inflation slowed to 6.1%, so that is great . in october it was above 10%. but 6%, why are we

lagarde is talking about rates going up and staying up there. is that something we should be thinking in terms of months? years? i don't understand the duration. if we are going to get back down, how far down does the slope go? when the cuts come, how far down do they take us? >> the truth is, it's kind of a blank. we could easily -- so many forecasters are saying we need a few more hikes all around. then nothing until 2024. that could be half-year. whatever mountain range we are talking about, it could be flat for a while. mike is right. it's all about jobs. a lot of the economists say as long as people have a job, they are not so unconfident. they keep going along. when people start losing jobs, that's a problem. alix: the back and is up a little bit. what is the biggest we rating? how do you handle the duration risk question? >> i think it's the long end. people are thinking eventually we are going to have a recession, even if it's next year. people have said lien long. people thought we might be getting to the peak of the short end. i think

we did get the hawkish comments from ecb president christine lagarde in portugal suggesting in that part of the world the hiking is not over strong data across the board, stronger than the market expected definitely puts pce in focus. >> new homes, faster pace in more than a year conference board, best in a year and a half morgan stanley, which just two weeks ago said the fed is done here now says the bar is maybe lower for a july hike than they previously expected. some of the housing numbers sort of lead you right to that point. >> we'll be talking about that a little more as well in the hour, but how resilient housing has been we've had a number of guests across cnbc in recent months who suggested, hey, maybe the bottom is already in on housing certainly with home uilders, what you're seeing with home builders specifically sort of bridging the gap to add more supply into this market. the fact there is demand there for those homes now being built. >> we'll talk to taylor morrison about that in a minute as for yesterday, the headline was one of bearish sentiment as stocks were down the

christine lagarde poured cold water on any halt of a pause in the cycle. >> we have hiked interest ratesnless there was a material change to the baseline, we will continue to hike at the next meeting. we are not thinking about pausing as you can tell. >>> the bank of japan sticks to the loose policy keeping rates in negative territory as inflation ticks higher governor ueda says they need more time to bring inflation down to the target. >>> and elon musk meets giorgia meloni in rome before heading to paris for the tech conference. >>> good morning warm welcome to the special edition of "street signs iemt m -- signs. mandy and i kicking things off joining the rally that we saw on wall street yesterday is the stoxx 600. all three of the majors stateside logged gains s&p 500 with the sixth session winning streak since november of 2021 a really strong session stateside. some of the market sentiment is spilling over into europe as european investors continue to review the central bank decision ecb raising rates by a further 25 an basis p 25 basis points. let's look at the board. ftse 100 up .

we got comments from christine lagarde from sintra. she said it is unlikely the ecb will call a peak in rates. she said the ecb should not waiver in the fight against inflation. that is driving the euro higher over the dollar. one .30% and the first acquisition for the in-house beauty division kering with 100% of business owned by blackrock and the current chairman shares up .70% and the london based company expects income to grow in the coming year with margins improving to 20% over the medium turn the stock is up 17%, frank. >> julianna tatelbaum in the london newsroom. >>> time for the morning call sheet. we check on the biggest upgrades and downgrades by firms you know and stocks you own goldman sachs upgrading on kellogg. moving to a buy as the company stands out as the few who will sustain increasingly scarce growth with the favorable market exposure shares of kellogg's up 2% in the pre-market and bernstein downgrading alphabet the 40% rise from the november lows means it is time to move to the sidelines on the stock looking at s

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we will be looking outlook from christine lagarde and banks and we will be live in frankfurt. let's take a look at futures. a lot of the focus is about central banks today. we look at the dot plot of the fed and i would point everyone to a wonderful piece. we ask a very simple but profound question. if we see such a hawkish tilt, why not raise rates from the fed ? equities are open. you can see the spanish index down here at the ftse is practically unchanged. the other story bear watching in the u.k. is a review -- the other story we are watching is the review on the banks. is the u.k. unlistenable? we have an interview with the chief executive of we soda. the other stories are commodities, what the china stimulus from the pboc means from oil consumption, oil demand will also some of the iron ore and things they need to build the construction that is going on over there. we look at the sovereign bonds, foreign exchange always interesting to look at. we also have the cac 40 opening .8% lower. if you look at the cross asset we are looking at treasuries and dollar. you can see th

christine lagarde was talking about this yesterday the fact that it is transmitting to the loan marketas quickly to the real economy. this is where the problem lies. if you look at how many people had mortgages then that is a significantly lower number than you would anticipate. transmission happening more slowly. maybe central banks need to go higher and go longer in what they are doing. that could be the other challenge is that rates are going to have to stay higher for longer. we anticipate we see rates coming down. have we completely -- have we got past the idea that that is cutting anytime soon? bilal: i think we should because it is unlikely they cut anytime soon they are trying to hint at that. the stronger message would be for them to have high because anything they said was the dots have gone up, everything looks higher but they do not hike which was odd. all the data tells you they have to hike preet guy: -- they have to hike. guy: you have been a big proponent to cash. should you still be a big proponent? bilal: i still like cash. you earning close to 5% and that preserves y

we saw it open already with a choir of hawkish warnings, christine lagarde of the ecb said officials won't be able to declare at the end of their tightening push anytime soon. >> it is unlikely that in the near future the central bank will be able to state with full confidence that the peak rates have been reached. >> if inflation turns out to be more persistent, further action is needed so interest rates and other things will be needed. >> we will do what is necessary for inflation to come down to 2%. >> we should not exclude the possibility that we are going to hike or might hike in september. >> in some countries, especially the u.s., they were expecting three rate cuts this year for u.s. fed policy and they have adjusted. >> the momentum being stable in the u.s. and europe at around 5% on a yearly basis, we need to see that coming down. >> i think markets have been very optimistic and i suspect they are still somewhat optimistic about the path for interest rates. >> leading all of those conversations is francine in portugal. what is going on here, i feel like you are drying out a

. >> the euro stronger in part - >> she was much more explicit, christine lagarde and said july is firmly on the table and we have more work to do and we're going to continue. are we done? no it was a more clear signal they are focused on raising rates to deal with inflation. yes, weaker dollar and potentially supporting u.s. stocks here if the fed actually is done, which is a lot of wall street strategists and economists out this morning say they are if not, maybe one more in july, that's what goldman says. >> i like to go to sara eisen for that where are you? >> i don't know. we need to see more inflation data and evidence. it's good to see imports come down today, good to see the cpi and ppi but their still way higher than they need to be. let's continue to monitor the data on that as the fed chair said he was. i don't think they know really there are some members that want to keep going. we'll have to see how hot the inflation numbers get and how hot the claims elevated again for second week in a row at 2021 levels is a signal the labor market may be starting to crack. still historica

do you trust madame lagarde to make the right choice?fabulous job and i am sure she would do a very good job. because the ecb has been very focused on what the data tells them. something i find remarkable, is how much more coordination, cooperation there is across the central banks. maria: some cutting and some baby going to cause. kristalina: the ecb started later than the fed. the situation in europe is different than the situation in the u.s.. the u.s. has not been hit as hard by energy prices. your suffered a bigger blow. it means to get more help to households, that pushes demand up. the second way in which the europe and the u.s. are different is what we see in the united states is the actions of the fed are showing there is some softening of the economy. i love being in brussels. i go to restaurants and people are at work. service is going -- maria: service is going. kristalina: countries that are more dependent like tourism were badly hit in 2020 but now they are recovering very strongly and they have high-growth, where is countr

christine lagarde has a much easier decision? rates are certain to rise again? >> if you want someone to guarantee what the central bank will do christine lagarde, president of the ecb did it today, more hikes are coming. listen to what she said. >> indicators of underlying inflationary pressures remain high. although some are showing signs of moderation there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked. >> the inflation is down and it is often the high in the euro zone and dashed off of the highs in the euro zone the inflation -- the inflation is off of the highs in the euro zone. some are saying inflation risk is tilted to the upside and this inflation is happening very slowly. i think nobody has to bet, it has been very clear by the ecb that there will be another rate hike in two weeks. paul: all right. a look at central-bank action. let us get to vonnie quinn to check on the first word headlines. >> a new revelatory plan may require large u.s. banks to boost their capital by an average of 20%. the proposal may cover up banks from 100 billion do

not necessarily knew that christine lagarde is being more hawkish, but what is new is she's giving us these comments when we have a fed talking about pausing or skipping. what does that mean in terms of next week's meeting? zoe: next week we are expecting a 25 basis point hike. the ecb has already hiked by 375 basis points except for the last hike, they were hikes of 50 or 75. the last one was 25. we are expecting 25 again next week. we are also expecting 25 again in july. the question is what happens after that because in a way, diverging from the fed as you just mentioned, something the ecb typically does not really do. they typically follow whatever the fed does, and if the fed is pausing and there is a strong indication they will pause this month, the ecb normally follows suit quite quickly. dani: it is often said and perhaps not explained well enough, but this idea of long and variable lag. we've seen the euro area inflation start slow. doesn't that to some degree mean it is not just long lags, it's already showing up? ecb policy has already been affected. zoe: it would seem like

. >> and that is what madame lagarde said yesterday. she said there will be another hike.ate in europe -- everyone is talking about if there will be another one in september. >> i would say madame lagarde and the ecb are guided by data. if inflation continues to be resisting the actions they take, they will have to do some more. of course, for the good of the economy, we also have to make a call to the fiscal policy side. please don't spend too much because that pushes up demand and prices up and then rates have to stay higher for longer. >> you met with finance ministers yesterday. are they listening to you? or do they tell you, the selections across europe, the energy situation, prices shot up. you feel like they are listening to you? >> they see the problem. we are in a situation where the monetary policy is putting a foot on the brake. if fiscal policy steps on the accelerator, we are in for a bad ride. >> they will crash the car. >> the problem is putting measures that support households and firms is easy. and yet, policymakers have to have the courage to let the meas

will christine lagarde have to respond to that? maria: just to clarify, it will be very hot in frankfurt but this time around i will be inside. i'm spanish but i also have my limits. when it comes to that decision i can almost hear the words, this is three days away. she will say what has been the standard line which is we are a data-dependent central bank. we are not fed dependent. the path on the road that they take, they stressed this idea the nature of the hiking cycle is different. they've always made that distinction. obviously we know if that were to happen there were repercussions. obviously yes she would have to attend to those concerns. i can a most predict she will say we are not fed dependent. alix: that does raise the question we talk about the fed to the ecb. pricing out any kind of cuts for this year and maybe the narrative is higher for longer. are the fed and the ecb far apart or is the ecb playing catch-up. guy: there's probably an element of that. katherine's been talking about the fx channel, she knows how much

wednesday, andrew bailey, jay powell and christine lagarde will be speaking. we will also get cpa that is expected to show inflation showing. thursday, watching for german and spanish cpi and friday, eurozone cpi. inflation picture out of the euro zone after the softer than expected emi data. we will get fed chair jay powell's preferred inflation gauge from a, is it headed in the right direction? next, we will dig into the markets with our guest from emirates nbd. is there a way to position around the geopolitics of russia and is profit turning into a sustained downturn? this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the fed has been trying to talk this market down. >> i think the fed has to sleep with one eye open. >> the fed is going to have to continue to raise rates or stay higher for longer. >> to pause and a time when you are significantly raising forecast because of inflation and the level of rates we have to get to deal with the problem, powell has a tough job. >> it is a mistake to ask central banks to solve inflation all by themselves. tom: our guests on where the feds pea

christine lagarde did speak at a parliament hearing earlier today. the ecb's actions are still materializing. >> policy measures are starting to materialize. recent ecb analysis indicates the effect of tightening on real activity and inflation can be expected to strengthen in the coming years, but our assessment is surrounded by significant uncertainty. alix: we get that. would also get a look at the data dropping tomorrow -- we also get a look at the data dropping tomorrow. we have data coming tomorrow for retail sales in the eurozone and christine lagarde say we have not fully felt the effects of tightening but they are coming and still are here. what are you expecting tomorrow? >> i think the data is showing tentative signs of rolling over. we saw that in services pmi today in europe. i think there is still a divergence. rolling over, it is probably still strong. i don't think we will see fast weakening. that is the split between manufacturing and services that should start showing up now in the hard data as well. tom: what is your sense of when w

christine lagarde spoke a lot about why the ecb needs to do more, suggesting that a rate hike in july it is all but a certainty. interesting, she said explaining why they have to do more, she said the bank will do what -- a man will do what he has to do and she said a woman will have to do what she has to do, too, so there you go. finally, andrew bailey surprised with a 50-basis-point rate hike at the bank of england's last meeting, so there's a lot of questions, leaving the door open to doing more, not committing to a particular rate hike yet, but everybody says inflation is still high, they have to do more, and that is the common message that rang so loud today. haidi: messaging from the boj still pretty consistent. governor ueda remaining above target. is this about, as he says, remaining confident he will stay in that range? kathleen: he said it so clearly, so succinctly today. inflation has been running about target by just about any key measure for about a year now or more, but yet, not ready to make. let's listen. what's on the line, inflation is still a bit low, around 2%. tha

here's what the president, christine lagarde, had to say earlier.y for this year and next, owing to past upward surprises and the implications of the robust labour market for the speed of this inflation. they now see it reaching 5.1% in 2023, before it declines to 3% in 2024. christine lagarde. ralf preusser is global head of rates research at bank of america. i asked him for his assessment of the ecb decision. we are at an interesting turning point and you or a gear already highlighted contrasting decisions this week. no real surprise from these 3, i would say. ecb told us 3 months back that they were likely to raise rates by 3 consecutive 3 month steps, this is the second one of those, pretty much committed to raising rates again injuly, in line with inflation data we have seen, and in light of that data, there is no real surprise there. but we are obviously and nearing the end of thatjourney in europe as well and what some market participants were hoping for today is some signal as to whether the ecb would stop after the next hike injuly, or whet

lagarde still sounded hawkish. bailey has to sound hawkish.hat is having an impact on currency and where the currency bears are trading. how will that impact the relative performance of the stock market indices >> we think in the west, the u.s. is less hawkish than the ecb or bank of england in that order. fed, ecb bank of england the bank of japan will need to be more hawkish. if you are looking at the inflation and growth picture, they don't need the extraordinary growth they have that means the dollar needs to weaken it has been up and down over the last six months, but it needs a bearish buy to it. that has benefits of the relative performance in the local currency terms of the u.s. market relative to the west to europe and the uk. for japan, what it means is we think the japanese yen will stall and you will have the intervention and that band will widen and maybe ministry of finance will stop the upside to the index to equities. >> let's see the yen is up 10% year to date the pound is 4.3%. the euro 1.6%. it feels the euro has covered mor

colleague sara eisen will be monitoring the policy with fed chair jerome powell christine lagarde and the kazuo ufeoa, and the bang of england governor, andrew bailey. >>> for more, check out cnbc.com. >>> coming up on the show, european equity markets enjoying the european mounts. what's driving the move next when we started our business we were paying an arm and a leg for postage. i remember setting up shipstation. one or two clicks and everything was up and running. i was printing out labels and saving money. shipstation saves us so much time. it makes it really easy and seamless. pick an order, print everything you need, slap the label onto the box, and it's ready to go. our costs for shipping were cut in half. just like that. shipstation. the #1 choice of online sellers. go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy

christine lagarde is giving opening remarks at this ecb form on central banking. tom: let's get to maria tadeo, she has been working on this tirelessly through the weekend. i and trying to correlate the reporting and news that is out there. maria tadeo is in brussels. what is the latest? maria: what we know is that now the russian media the past hour has sent this idea that vladimir putin and the russian estate would not launch a probe into prigozhin for his insurrection is not the case, that the probe has not been dropped and is continuing. the idea was that the head of belarus had mediated between vladimir putin and prigozhin to avoid a bloodshed in moscow. there was somehow a peacemaking deal. if the russians decide to go after prigozhin and they do continue this probe, it means there was no such deal. lisa: do we have a sense about what the internal discussions are about vladimir putin's leadership and why there was not or opposition to the wagner troops as they did march on moscow? maria: what we did see on saturday as the russian president to address the nat

getting to the 110 level -- 1.10 level of the hawkish discussion from christine lagarde.fragility that has been off the radar with russia and with all that is going on with the economics finance and investment but here is the theme. euro is stronger and began his week. --the yen this week --is weak. lisa: especially given the fact that the japanese economy has been a haven for many people who keep saying let's by japanese securities. i am watching yields grinding higher on the front end around the world and the yield curve getting more inverted particularly over in europe. tom: i will have to see. there is no other way to look at it. futures up three and the dow at -51. tom: the questions around the earnings --lisa: the questions around the earnings surprise and the question of its -- if this is going to be a pattern, -- joining us is cameron dawson. how much is that is on your radar, the earnings be the catalyst to the downside to the caution that people are worried about? cameron: even though we see dire economic forecasts, economists -- you don't see that in the earnin