you can see the lagarde effect comes about here, that is where lagarde takes into year, that is whens clear the ecb is done, that is when you see the big push higher for european equity markets. i think it goes via the currency channel, lesson to the bank and the other currency channel into these big global companies. that is where the effect is coming through. the commodity story is there. hsbc has been rising from the get-go. shell has been on the go from the get-go. that is the oil story. the miners are a big contribute in factor as well. look at rio, up by 4.77%. in a credit is up, the banking story, by 24%. there is definitely an effect here. commodities are up strongly. i think that is less of an effect coming through from christine lagarde with their is the currency translation story. the unicredit, i picked a bank at random on the 2.2%. albia made, earlier on today, was down 20% from its peak. bouncing back today, 2.38%, 747 despite the fact we have also seen that negative note coming from barclays on lvmh and the whole sector. let's talk about the rest of the day and tomorro

>> lagarde has changed. she's not the same lagarde as at jackson hole. flat out.way the saudis have manipulated the price, she goes on the stage today different. >> she has a free pass to pause because this is what the market is expecting. >> she has a single mandate and you are right. it's overwhelmed. >> she can come out and say we want to be sufficiently restrictive. we got there. now we wait and get a sense. >> i am with tk. you get a feeling that this energy price move has encouraged the hawks to go into the governing council meeting and make a change. will be interesting to see what is the thinking behind this. we did not get a strong guide from lagarde in jackson hole. there is no indication they would deliver 25 basis points today. >> they were great in explaining this to me. she wants a longer-term analysis. i get it. crystals and pyramids. that was the name of the speech. you know what? oil moved. all of a sudden it's like mike tyson hit you in the face. this is a different press conference. i'm guessing she's sitting there, going, how are you doing? tha

lagarde is trying to put caveats in. done, but we have got to keep the risk on the table so they don't start pricing in cuts. that seems to be the narrative right now. we are down by 6/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. guy: thursday the 14th of september. europe, by green on the screen. you know what? not a lot of do with what is doing -- happening in frankfurt. european equity market is more about what is happening in beijing. commodity stocks are up, oil prices are higher, minors are up as well, that is the china story. hsbc is up, the china story. lb me h -- i'll -- i'll bv me h -- banks are moving a little bit. the bright green on the screen, the kayaks up by 1.32, lvmh, london up by .2%. nothing to do with christine lagarde.

>> christine lagarde was adamant about saying that this is not necessarily last hike. if you look at the decision one could say the hawks won the decision but the doves won the markets. orchids are saying this is probably the last hike -- markets are saying this is probably the last hike. >> that is going to be something we talk a lot about. the recessionary story. will germany tilt the rest of europe to that decline? >> there was a big concerned about whether this would be one hike to many. >> it is too early to say if this is one hike too many. ecb cut its growth forecast for the next -- this year and the next two years considerably. that means we are in a stagflation situation. policymakers last month were concerned about that. and at the same time they did also raise the inflation forecast for this year and for next year. the classic situation where we have strong inflation readings and at the same time little or no growth is something the ecb has to be worried about. that also leads markets to believe this will be the last one. but christine lagarde did not want t

christine lagarde very clear talking about the idea. she is not talking cuts just yet. important the cpi data is going to be. nice to see you. cpi ended the week. christine lagarde making it very clear the rates are going to stay up and stay there for a while. what is the cpi going to tell us about whether or not she is going to be able to achieve that? the bastion: ultimately, the message of hire for longer is going to have to be validated by the data. the cpi is the data investors will look at for the area given the single mandate of the ecb. we don't expect a particular large surprise either way. we think the inflation process is in place for the coming months. for this one in particular, we don't expect the largest surprise. more to come in terms of ecb news. kailey: for how long do you think the ecb is going to be able to keep rates high? this is where a recession forecast i would think comes into play unless you think the ecb is going to be willing to tolerate that because of the inflation fight. sebastian: our view is that rates will remain high until at least th

although christine lagarde refuses to say it is definitely enough. >> both matter.he level is restrictive and duration. it is not to say because we can't say that now that we are at peak. >>> thousands of u.s. auto worker goes on strike hitting production at gm, ford and stellantis as the uaw union president warns the group will not buckle. >>> good morning. welcome to "street signs." there is a lot of green on the board for the final trading day of the week. positive numbers for the stock market. we he finally got the a.r.m. listing. we saw all of the wall street majors end in the day in the green. in asia overnight, we had positive numbers with retail sales in china growing. industrial production surpassing expectations. hand over from asia pacific is positive for europe. this is the stoxx 600. we are up .80%. this comes after positive session yesterday with the stoxx 600 ending 1% higher which is in reaction to the ecb and the fact they raised interest rates by 25 basis points. they seemed to hint they were at the end of the hiking cycle. that is the market inter

is kristen lagarde going to be smiling like that? key question so what will she tell us about the trajectory for inflation and the trajectory of growth. we saw the update from the european commission and it's not good on either front. alix: i feel like we are walking a line between having to look at growth slowing but inflation staying sticky and that puts you in a bind with one mandate. i don't know how you transmit that forcefully within a press conference. it will be super interesting. i don't know how to make this segue but when electric cruise ship is carrying more than 200 passengers and has run aground in north greenland. the passengers are expected to be stranded until at least friday. no injuries have been reported and there are plenty of supplies on board but i have to wonder how this winds up shifting as the climate shifts because places where you may have been able to go before, you can't anymore because of water level changes and you may run into ground more often, basically. guy: we've got to get back to the ecb in a mo

we have spotted christine lagarde on her way in. i believe that 7:15. she's already hard at work.is a two day deliberation. when it comes to the meeting, what is clear as we have seen market sentiment almost flipping on a weekly basis. but obviously there has been a very palpable change in tone when it comes to money markets and what they price in. they now see a rate hike from the european central bank. a lot of that precipitated by that report from reuters which also bloomberg was able to confirm about the print when it comes to cpi potentially above 3% next year. that was seen as a determining factor when it comes to the strength of the transmission policy of the european central bank above 3% next year that would still give a platform to the hawks that believe there is still a rate hike warranted. this is a tough call for the european central bank. whatever happens. this is a tough communications exercise from the head of the european central bank. we are ending now at a point at which whether you believe they hold are they hike today, this is a central bank facing a bleak eco

since we are on the verge of reducing inflation we are on the right track, i don't see christine lagardeay we need to go further. 4% as a high level of interest rates. it might have some impact on the level of activity. we are on the right track to reduce inflation which must be our common goal. enough is enough. maria:. that was very clear. let's move onto the other big topic. this was a massive decision we saw reflected in the market. there is no a probe that will start into chinese electric vehicles ahead of the european commission who says they flooded the market with cheap subsidies. this was a political victory for your country who wanted this included. what will you get out of it? >> we did not push anything, we wanted to have a fair condition between china and the eu. china is a key partner for the eu but the partnership between her two continents must be based on the same rules and must be based on a certain level. if there is any doubt there is a competitive field between china and the you, it's up to the commission to launch an investigation. this investigation is most welcome

did you adjust your spreadsheet off of lagarde yesterday? neil: we did not.aying since march this year we thought the ecb rates -- ecb rates would fall to 4%. looks like we got to 4% and looks like this is the peak, the big question is does it come back down from there? i don't think that is a story to ride the back of next year. tom: michael spence and i had the privilege once of talking, my great privilege to talk to professor spence, he was a student of john hicks, which that arches back over 80 years of economics, even 100 years early economics out to michael spence now. the fact is everybody likes to talk finance, interest rates, and the rest but goes back to the highest curve and real economy. what did you learn yesterday about a fractious ecb and how they will address a growth slowdown? neil: you are right, you alluded to it earlier in your discussion that the ecb stuck between a rock and a hard place. it has inflation coming down, slowly -- slower than what it would like. $90 plus on oil prices and european net energy importer, european natural gas pr

jonathan: christine lagarde said she's ready to go and that's new?t to the press. she was asked if you prepared -- if you were prepared for the job and she said yes. the interviewer said explain you think you are prepared. she said there is nothing to prepare for because joe biden is not going anywhere. it did take people by surprise have weekly she said yes and stopped lisa: at this point, people are looking at the polls in the concern about these issues and this rambling not to mention what we are seeing on both sides of the aisle and other people who have been in service for a long time and it raises questions about their health. at what point do we start to hear a sense of who could potentially run instead of president biden if this starts to get critical mass? annmarie: at the moment, the democrats are rallying around biden even though there are whispers behind closed doors about his age. he will be 83 next november. no one is doubting he will run at this moment. you see the push from the campaign and they are releasing millions of dollars in ad

jonathan: a big decision for christine lagarde. going into last week, the data it needs to tell them why they need to hike. but they failed to do that based on every piece of data last week. the -- our fed is on the sidelines unless you get a blowout labor number. tom: all of this is the transatlantic disparity there and it for into a stock market that's resilient. this is like new year's. in america the day after labor day is just like january 3. jonathan: equity futures on the s&p 500 are just slightly negative down by 0.2% and yields are higher by four basis points on the 10 year. yields aggressively lower on the front end through the last week. it's on the back of economic data in the united states. lisa: it's amazing to see 20 basis points plunging on the heels of some of that. this week will be quiet but there are interesting things coming up. wednesday at 10 a.m., ism services in the u.s. for the month of august. i'm curious to see whether we see a rollover at all above the 50 mark which is above recession even as we seek a

alix: if lagarde couldn't do it i don't know how andrew bailey will do it.even a tight rope to walk at that point? jane: there's always a possibility but it is tough and we can see some of that story with the euro/sterling with the gloomy pmi out of germany. the market doesn't like it and it bounced back. if the market does not want to see the sterling gained ground against the euro. it seems that will continue for a little while with the market seeing the central banks and similar conundrums. guy: jane is a fantastic person and she is also a little weird. the reason i say this is she had an apple phone and an android phone which i can't get my head around. it has to be one of the other. it's like being ambidextrous. alix:[laughing] i was going to ask her if she had an apple or an android. i literally can't type on an android. guy: i am getting fan mail about the enjoyed, people love the android. i will forward them to you. jane, thank you for proving my point. we love you. we will be right back. let's check the euro stocks these are the final numbers. we ha

coming up, christine lagarde spoke in london and focus on the communication challenges.e any clues as to whether the ecb will hike or pause at their next meeting. more with anna, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company. explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. >> welcome back to bloomberg markets. the ecb president christine lagarde gave no insight on what the next move of evening september 14. she spoke in london and focus on challenges in communicating during uncertain times. and on jointly now. someone who has no problem with communicatio

over the last few days and the challenge will be for lagarde.f they skip the next meeting and don't deliver a hike the market will start probably looking at cuts. maybe there still is an underlying inflation problem but the markets will look at the data and go historically you have not held risk of this high for long periods of time and that will be the challenge. the dollar story will be with us for a while now. and i think it will be fascinating how lagarde deals with it. this is bloomberg. ♪ i did have hearing aids from another company... i was just frustrated... i almost gave up. with miracle ear it's all about service. they're personable... they're friendly. i'm very happy with them. we provide you with a free lifetime of aftercare. meaning free checkups, cleanings, and adjustments. i see someone new... someone happy... it's really made a difference. call miracle ear at 1-800-miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today. you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh

that the interest rate increase was done with the aim of controlling inflation , however, christine lagardencreased this version again in a day and a month. he did not deny the future . last year, the european central bank increased the interest rate by 10 times to 14%.

tom: lagarde not go draghi on us. you are not going to get that from powell. on data-dependent meetings into next year. jonathan: they are getting desperate to get through 2023. the update on uaw, the president rejecting a 21% pay increase from stellantis as the strike rolls on. the offer coming in below the 36% raise the union is seeking with him calling it a no go, signaling the union and automakers remain far apart. is it 40% or 36%? lisa: i do not understand. we do not understand what the line in the sand is. it seems detroit automakers are paying vastly more than tesla. they are paying about $66 on average versus $45. wells fargo estimates if they conceded to all demands, that would go up to $136 per hour on average for all employees. jonathan: the final story, british property market breaking another record. rent growing at the fastest pace in a decade. tenants paid 12% more than a year ago with average rent in the u.k., britain 1300 pounds a month. he highest rent on record. tom: give us your context. i do not need the details. give us a jon ferro anecd

christine lagarde has no chance on this.ger trend in a policy. jon: one person, not a consensus builder, he would believe the council into a corner and say we are doing this. lagarde is a consensus builder but she gets a and easier time because jeremy -- and she gets an easier time because germany -- people make out it was a deal between doves and hawks and the hawks i am hearing from, they are not that hawkish on the ecb, are they? elsa: they are less hawkish than they used to be because germany is feeling be weakness but one person had to do that because it was a crisis situation and that forced his hand. we are not really there now. jon: i teased this earlier when we were assessing sterling and lisa was asking a question regarding the u.k. and sterling. how important are right inferential for currency pairs? what does it mean? elsa: i agree with lisa bet it is ambiguous and i heard from people trying to talk up sterling as i carry trade. -- as a carry trade. the fact that i said earlier, you remove the tail risk up stagfl

i think even if we get a hold, christine lagarde is going to get focused on telling markets don't expect us to get into easing mode yet. tom: michael, justina, i like the fact that you brought up the challenge for the ecb and on that point, i want to tap your expertise before we go back to michael because the china linkage is to europe and how clear cut they are, there is more optimism in the session as the result of a turnaround. are we sorting to have to rethink china's growth trajectory and our thing starting to turn more positive in china and in this quarter? does china become more positive for this global economy and get a lift for europe? justina: it feels like things are turning around. that is relative to very low expectations but we are getting some crucial chinese data this week and economists currently are projecting a more -- a little bit of a pickup because of all of the instructions everyone has been getting from the central government. we will probably see some improvement in policy driven demand and that will help -- that will hopefully change the narrative for europe as

the forward-looking part in terms of the language that christine lagarde may use if the euro is going get into any trouble, that is where it might come in. if, for example, christine lagarde thinks she's been pushed into a corner, she goes ahead with a hike but then uses relatively dovish language for the forward-looking part, the euro might spike up and come all the way back down again, as she speaks during the press conference. there's a lot of possibilities here as to the way it plays out, but as of right now, people are taking it as a reason to say that yes, the hike is coming and it is not fully priced into the market which means a euro can improve. kriti: mark cranfield, bullish on the euro. let me pushback on that. the idea that if you are actually talking about recession led by germany right now, manufacturing numbers are expected to be weaker today in today's economic data, wouldn't a rate hike or excitations of it just mean way more pressure on the continent? is that perhaps why we are seeing right now choppy action in the euro and weakness in the euro? mark, your thoughts?

inflation on the rise the interest rate is aimed at curbing inflation, however, christine lagarde did not rule out another increase in the interest rate in the coming days. in the past year , the european central bank increased the interest rate by 10 times to 4%. experts believe that the increase in energy prices is the cause of inflation. china started its official political relations with the taliban and the new chinese ambassador sheng should hand over his credentials in a meeting with the taliban prime minister because it is a country that recognizes the taliban because it has already signed the final agreement over the phone and made investments. terrorists have done this in this country so far they attacked chinese delegations in afghanistan several times. during the visit of the venezuelan president to china, when the cooperation agreement was signed between the two countries, his mother described this trip as historic and said that it was a new era in the forgotten friendship of the president. china has improved the level of relations between the two countries due to a strate

we will also hear from central leaders such as jay powell and christine lagarde.pce. if the fed preferred measure of inflation. you are expected to see core pce drop as headline continues to heat up. that mirrors what we saw in cpi expected see the same thing with pce. the diversions we see between headline and core pce maybe it will row if we continue to see energy prices continue to climb. what that means for the federal reserve, we will see. from new york, that does it for us. this was bloomberg real yield and this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? have we piqued your inte

euro area and the increase in interest rates has been done in order to control inflation, christine lagarde, however , did not rule out the increase in interest rates again in the coming days and months. the percentage has increased the price energy is considered to be the cause of inflation growth, the french company's lung cancer vaccine tests have had relatively good results , according to the company's announcement, the laboratory stage of this vaccine was carried out in the monitor of patients who were in the advanced stage of lung cancer . the vaccine has a 41% lower mortality rate compared to chemotherapy. in immunotherapy, the patient's immune system is strengthened in order to easily fight cancer . last year, by publishing material on cyberspace, he claimed that the taliban had established order in afghanistan and the people of this country submitted to the government of this group . cooperate in response to this issue, four members of the british defense committee launched a plan of scientific incompetence, and finally the head of the german defense committee of england did more a

they are -- there also could be a lagarde like emphasis that we are at or close to the peak rates. they would do that via shifting out the dot plot or via showing a less number of members really gunning for that extra hike this year. kriti: you mentioned the liquidity story. central bankers famously like to say they are working with very blunt tools. in the last 7-10 days the idea of higher oil prices and wages has captured the world's attention. how much can chair jay powell do about that? valerie: not a lot when it comes to oil prices for the auto strike in the u.s.. to juxtapose that argument, we have seen a lot of progress when it comes to wages moderating whether that is average hourly earnings being the lowest in two years, the atlanta fed wage tracker softening, the implement cost index which is a quarterly measure of wage inflation also softening. the last few months we have seen labor market come into better surprised -- supply and demand. when it comes to oil prices, powell is likely not to be deterred on this because the recent rise in oil prices is really not shifting i

lagarde sand one of his adult sons were shooting and then eventually bin laden was shot and then hisy had to be taken out of the compound, loaded onto a helicopter because we had to be sure about identification to have credibility with the world and we had to blow up the helicopter because it was an advanced helicopter with advanced electronics. we didn't want the pakistanis to get it because we thought they were given to the russians and the chinese. all of this was going on and i think we were holding our breath for 20 minutes. it was just so intense. thankfully, president obama made the right decision and it worked . david: when something like that is happening you cannot say to your husband i have a secret, i can't tell you. bill: she called me as soon as it's over. they said we got him and i said who? because he knew how hard i tried to get him when i was president. and he said bin laden, hilary didn't tell you? and i said mr. president, didn't you tell her not to tell anybody read she did not tell anybody. you asked me in the beginning i said color is a was because it had been

zone, said that the interest rate would be increased in order to curb inflation. made from christine lagarde, however, did not rule out raising the interest rate again in the coming days and months. in the past year, the european central bank has increased the interest rate by 10 percent to 4 percent . the lung cancer treatment vaccine has had good sexual results, according to the company's announcement, the laboratory stage of this vaccine treatment was carried out for patients who were in the advanced stage of lung cancer. chemotherapy was less in immunotherapy, the patient's immune system is strengthened in order to easily fight cancer, and two news about the resignation of the world cooperation and the acceptance of the taliban, the work of the head of the defense committee of the british parliament was used . established and the people of this country submit to the government of this group, the head of the defense committee of the british parliament also asked the government of this country to reopen the british embassy in kabul and cooperate with the taliban. they started scientific fl

the increase in the interest rate was done with the aim of curbing inflation, however, christian lagarde will update this version again in the coming months. last year, the european central bank increased the interest rate by 10 times to 4%. experts are increasing energy prices and inflation factors. china started its official political relations with the taliban and it is beautiful. the new ambassador of china met with the prime minister of the taliban it is the first country to recognize the taliban because it has signed agreements with the taliban and made investments in this country . terrorists have attacked the chinese delegations in afghanistan several times. during the visit of the president of venezuela to china, how many cooperation agreements were signed between the two countries? we described this visit as historic and said that a new era in the relationship with the country will begin . said the president of the united states he accused the republicans of disrupting the work of the government. in response to the start of the impeachment process in the us house of representat

chairman powell is in a much better place compared to president lagarde. have the stress christine lagarde has. the ecb will convene and they have a much tougher decision to make over the next several months. tom: the answer is, there is this turmoil where america, it seems every conversation comes out better. how do you bet against that? jonathan: eight weeks of dollar strength speaks to exactly what we are talking about. lisa: i read an estimate from deutsche bank taking the $190 billion decline in apple valuation would have put it in one of the top 11 stocks of the stocks. just to give you a sense of how that relative valuation would be on europe. they don't have the tech story. they didn't have the fiscal stimulus story and that will be a big discussion. jonathan: there is u.s. exceptionalism of a different kind. lisa: a sugar lobby? jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ let innovation refunds help with your erc tax refund so you can improve your business however you see fit. rosie used part of her refund to build an outdoor patio. clink!

carl, i thought what lagarde said yesterday, ecb president, they hiked rates and pivoted in terms of pushback on that today. some drama surrounding just how definitive, supposedly, lagarde was yesterday in the wake of that hike. you see italy and portugal now pretty upset, the fury is the term thrown around. >> we have the quote. >> this is sort of -- happening at central banks all around the world as unanimity dissolves. >> the irony she's getting the political blowback at a time when she signaled she will stop raising rates. there's the italian prime minister, ecb doesn't care about the economic difficulties of families and businesses increasing the cost of money. lagarde is living on mars. >> elizabeth warren could have made that quote about the fed. >> and she has been complaining about the fed's interest rate increases. it's not helpful for politicians if we start to see unemployment tick up, if we start to see confidence come down. that's what central banks need to get inflation under control and for the ecb, they've got a single mandate the italian deputy prime minister should

haidi: ecb president christine lagarde on the potential for global growth after the central bank delivered 10th rate hike our next guest says the hawkish ecb will likely cause a global recession this year. join us now is jay hatfield from infrastructure capital management. great to have you with us. can they avoid this hawkishness when we have such solid data? >> we believe the data will continue to show cooling and also that the fed misinterprets the data because of the lag shelter component of inflation. inflation is purposely lacked -- lagged. so if they properly interpreted the data, they would realize inflation is tame. now we've their preferred measure, the labor market is cooling. the ecb pause and it will be a pause is critical because we think europe is now heading into a deep recession, particularly germany. horrible data coming out of germany and italy. haidi: the consensus seems to be the fed will not move next week. are you expecting the fed to realize this lag by november and december? will they keep the pause? >> yes. the next meeting is bullish because you get the dot plot

christine lagarde are talking about how this is needed to cool consumer prices.ntries that use the euro and the deposit rate has been lifted from 3.7 5% up to 4% which is as i mentioned an all—time high. markets were expecting the move to be the last, though, and what they think will happen now is that we will see a lengthy pause followed by rate cuts in the second half of the year. a lot to talk about when it comes to these moves by the ecb and we will have more on this in the business in 15 minutes. the kremlin has confirmed that vladimir putin has accepted the invitation to visit pyongyang. the north korean leader kimjohn ewan invited vladimir putin during the meeting earlier this week —— kimjong—un. vladimir putin promised to help north korea with its space programme. 0ther promised to help north korea with its space programme. other countries have voiced concerns about closer military ties between the countries which are both the subject of global sanctions. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. now to some of the other stories we are closely

that's the challenge we see addressed tomorrow by christine lagarde.orward to the outlook. today, novo nordisk down. the idea is to generate buzz, with tech stocks drifting off a bit. it's had a great run. maybe that's a reflection of what we see today. coming up on the european close, what happens next? are we seeing an acceleration, bree inflation? ♪ more electrolytes. zero sugar. you feel the difference when you get it right. stay salty. so, you've got the power of xfinity at home. now take it outside with xfinity mobile. like speed? it's the fastest mobile service around. with the best price for two lines of unlimited. only $30 bucks a line per month. that's hundreds in savings a year when you wave bye to the other guys. all on the most reliable 5g network nationwide. you really shouldn't walk out the front door without it. (jennifer)itch today at the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight o

. >> we will bring you the latest on the ecb decision and president christine lagarde's press conferenceater today. join me at 14:10 cet. we have asset management ceo from jpmorgan chase joining us. are you in the hawkish pause today? >> after the leak that happened yesterday, i feel it will be more the dovish hike. i feel that is where the ecb is going. they weren't happy with the pricing on monday. it does feel they want to hike. you look at the economic data and it smells of a possibility of policy mistakes. i think they want to be clearer around the fact we are seeing weakness. >> it is extraordinary that the news report came out. if they end up hiking, it would be a surprising turn of events. before the article came out, the market was leaning too a hike. now the market re-priced on the back of the article. that is key. what does that tell you about the state of consensus building within the ecb and the fact they felt they had to take it to the hire last second. what could be quite an informative leak. >> we had a number of hawkish members of the ecb coming out saying there was stil

that is the mess that president lagarde has to confront and 24 hours.an from north korea and that meeting, it is unspoken is the were advances. overnight there were legitimate missile attacks on crimea by ukraine directly at the russian navy. i'm sorry. that's an overlay to the strategy lagarde has to impart on a herd of cats. jonathan: the story of the year. the fragility of the energy. tom: the war is going full bore. jonathan: it is all connected. tom: yes. jonathan: the latest cpi reading is less than an hour away. high gas prices are pushing month over month prices. core is where the good news is for the federal reserve. we focus on core, headline, and the commodity market. lisa: or, do you focus on both and windows headline start to matter more for the fed when it comes to the potential for rate cuts next year? can you see rate cuts with headline figures that are sticky on the heels of oil prices? i don't know the answer. maybe we will get a sense today. jonathan: earlier today we heard from spirit, which had to downgrade his outlook for revenue.

well, optimistic, but then suddenly the data turned and that is presenting a conundrum for christine lagarde and crew, so where do we go from here there? >> again, inflation is not under control in europe either and the ecb just raised 25 basis points. i am european and we come from the northern part of europe in denmark, and really europe is the biggest economic zone in the world and of course it is set up by many different countries and is very terrible war in ukraine we have also seen europeans, much closer and start making some pretty bold moves into energy, military, nato, and so forth and i think maybe europe is underrated. we saw some good developments in the equity marks of europe and there are lots of good things. it is too slow and bureaucratic, but sometimes crises are changing that thing so i think europe is hopefully here to stay and also it is the biggest economic zone in the world and even though it is fractured it is moving forward but i also hope we can have more aligned approaches to some of the big questions in europe. rishaad: always a pleasure having you on the program.

worrisome for the eurozone which increased interest rates with the president of the ecb christine lagarde saying that the hike in interest rates will continue to be the case as they fight off inflation further. we also have unemployment numbers for the second quarter. 0.2% quarter on quarter. 1.3% up year on year then for the employment figure as well in the eurozone. across the market, a little bit of a mixed board. generally higher. ftse 100 is up .10%. cac 40 is up .40%. all of the markets taking that data in, frank. >> arabile, thank you very much. great to see you. >>> turning attention back to the u.s. the latest beige book revealing the majob market slowed in july and august and many businesses expect wage increases to ease and consumers will remain strong. the report coming two weeks before the next policy meeting. let's bring in skyler for the latest. thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> the beige book is the primary objective of 90% chance of a pause when the fed meets in two weeks. how do you see this impacting the markets from now until then? >> the market

christine lagarde has not given us a theory on where the ecb will be going, but she has said tackling inflation will be important. it is something we will have to keep an eye on. dani: i thanks to jill and valerie for your time. that was great analysis to start us off. these are the stories we're keeping an eye on today, starting at 9:30, the bank of england's decision maker panel will give us an update on inflation expectations. half an hour later we will get the final reading on gdp. 1:30 u.k. time, we will get an update on u.s. jobless claims, and finally we will hear from the new york fed president john williams who will be speaking at a bloomberg event and a talk from the atlanta fed president. you can get around up of all the stories that you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. >> coming up, we dive into the markets, including a look into japan as the job -- dollar in move hasn't been determined yet, that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ when it comes to getting your flu shot, cvs is pretty... flex. wanna schedule one online while prepping dinner? gra

what christine lagarde has to say today will have a huge influence on currencies, bonds, and a bubbly equities as well. -- probably equities as well. rishaad: we will see if they actually do hike rates, people might sell to europe because it means growth gets more stymied. i want to look at japan and see the latest there because we keep waiting for an abandonment of yield curve control. we have seen the end continue to fall, but you see it at eight year lows against the korean won. mark: it is not just against the korean won, obviously the chinese currency comes into play as well. in a way, you can think about the three currencies in one. because they compete in some of the same markets, export markets, where one goes, the other is likely to follow. the path of the korean won from here is dependent on a turn in the yen and to some degree, the trans--- chinese currency as well. korea in a way is making policy that that thinks is domestic, raised interest rates already, it looks like it will hold for some time, but they are looking over their shoulder closely of all the policy settings

biggest risks for investors who plan to get in early and what wall street can expect when christine lagarde releases her decision on the ecb. >>> the top 100 financial advisers is out. we speak about one of the worst months for stocks. a very busy hour still ahead on "worldwide exchange." we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. (mom) bringing in a new roommate to save money - is that the plan? (dad) well we gotta find some way to save. so say hi to glen. from work. (glen) hey. that's my mom. (mom) i think i have a much better plan. we switch to myplan from verizon. we get exactly what we want and save big. all on the network we can count on. (daughter) it's a good plan (dad) that is a good plan. glen looks like we're not going to be needing you. so i'll see you at work. (son) later glen. (vo) this week. new and cu

lagarde speaking given and we will hear from palm later today. then the meat of the action.cpi dishes today if we will get the rest tomorrow. we get the french and italian numbers. italy and france increasingly joined at the hip economically. their perspective they are looking at germany under some other norm -- northern countries suggesting some deficits pushing through for these countries at the moment will not be acceptable. when you put that alongside cpi numbers you have an interesting combination. cpi, cpi's in the euro zone number. the expectation is it will drop. is it dropping fast enough to justify the fact that the ecb is done? that's the critical component. what are the components parts telling us? what is critically happening in services? alix: joining us to discuss is the chief international economist at mass davis research. what are you expecting tomorrow from arizona cpi? i the honda: -- alejandro tomorrow we are looking at eurozone cpi based on stable readings from germany making up a big chunk of the overall basket. we expect eurozone cpi close overall and

pain you saw this weekend or at least the pushback from european leaders when it comes to president lagardehe ecb policy there. i think that bread on the screen is really coming from the asian session. on the other hand, wraps a little bit of a defensive tilt. s&p futures higher by .2%. tech underperforming this time around. that is an interesting dynamic given that asian stocks are actually lower. let's explore that dynamic in the rest of the show. shall book becomes the new governor of the reserve bank of australia and its first female chief. more on that next. stick with us. this is bloomberg. hi, i'm katie, i've lost 110 pounds on golo in just over a year. golo is different than other programs i had been on because i was specifically looking for something that helped with insulin resistance. i had had conversations with my physician indicating that that was probably an issue that i was facing and making it more difficult for me to sustain weight loss. golo has been more sustainable. i can fit it into family life, i can make meals that the whole family will enjoy. it just works in everyd

they are sandwiched around christine lagarde. sales and revenue out on friday.k those two fast fashion companies will be interesting. take a look at the top line. look at what they are telling us about what the consumer is doing. ecb rate decision on thursday. that is the main event. the market is pricing in around 40% chance of a high versus a pause. it feels like a coin toss. alix: how do they illustrate a hawkish pause and they probably will have to downgrade or go productions for next year? it will be a communication nightmare. joining us now to break it down sreekala kochugovindan . what is the ecb going to do? >> they have a dilemma on their hand. you looking at activity data it is an irritating and probably quite a looker than they're expecting. they're already looking at contraction. very -- on the other hand if you look at the markets, still very tight, wage growth, wage pressures and if you break down the inflation components, yes, we deceleration. prices, core services take some time to decelerate. a row dilemma for the ecb and we can see that in the

while bank president christine lagarde refused to explicitly confirm that thursday's hike would be theone for this cycle, she did say what analysts are -- she did send what analysts are interpreting is rather strong signals. >> with today's decision, we have made significant contributions under current assessment to returning inflation to target in a timely manner. as i said, both elements matter. the level, sufficiently restrictive, and the duration, but the focus is probably going to move a bit more to the duration. >> investors in europe took heart from the production that the ecb could be done hiking rates. automakers lost some ground as investors worried that an eu investigation into eu electric vehicle subsidies. wall street broke a three-day losing streak as the latest u.s. court inflation data ended slightly higher than expected. retail data for august meeting expectations as sales jumped .6%. the dollar is at a six-month high against the euro as all major indexes ended the day up .8%. the big news on wall street this thursday, though, was the return of arm public trading. it w

christine lagarde has been talking about cpi numbers coming out this week.head of european equity strategy is joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: monday, 25th of september. it is ugly out there. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets european close with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪

now christine lagarde is more concerned about a wage price, even as their economy slips into a technicale eurozone led by germany. we're not as worried about that here, but the bottom line is the job is not done, and that message was clear. i think the other side of this, is that the fed doesn't expect to cut rates as rap putly as it hiked hiked rates nor does it expect to go to the ultra low rates we saw in the wake of 2008-2009 recession. the balance sheet repairs that we saw in the wake of that great recession have really helped us to be much more resilient this time around, but it also justifies higher rates than we had prior to the crisis. >> but, diane, on the other side of the equation, the economic data starting to come in a little bit soft, and people are paying attention to, for instance, what we heard from some of the retailers, macy's and nordstrom, increased rate of delinquencies from credit card borrowers, that sort of thing. isn't the flip side if the economy weakens more materially and we see the stress show up, as we do with lags from central banks, i don't know, hiking

a lot of it pointing to the fact that the hawks aren't entirely happy that lagarde gave this signal thatdone tightening. we have this article in the reuters news line yesterday talking about the possibility of raising reserve requirements to tackle excess liquidity. we heard from casimir about the debate on qt pace. the hawks are looking for ways to tighten policy without having to hike rates again. we saw the euro strength and off the back of that. i want to touch on rents and what has been going on in times spreads. a lot of front end contracts rose above one dollar a barrel for the first time since november which doesn't sound like a long time, but it has only happened three times in the last 15 years that those have gone above one dollar. those brent times spreads are creeping tighter, singling that the market is tight when it comes to oil. i want to touch on treasuries read the entire curve again breaking new cycle highs. fives, tens and 30's around five basis points from breaking new cycle highs. kriti: valerie tytel walking us through the major charts we need to know at the mornin

yousef: also speaking this week will be christine lagarde. in many ways the european inflation story is a lot trickier than what the u.s. has to deal with today. how do they bring this home and make sure that inflation and cost pressure stay under control within mainland europe? geoffrey: in her sintra speech she was clear about the divergence in various parts of the economy in terms of labor growth you low productivity sectors in the euro zone actually driving labor market growth as manufacturing is in the opposite direction. where did she see the balance of risks up ahead. so steep based on the pmi's up ahead. best, drag down that overall demand as a whole. she actually has a much narrower path across compared to her colleagues over in the u.s.. let's see how that development is going there but she needs to expand on what she mentioned during her speech. >> i would love to leverage some of your strategic insights built from years and years of front lines of the industry. looking at european stocks beginning to think whether those evaluation

people talking about the ecb said is this lagarde and trichet's moment.ll's john-claude trichet moment? valerie: the fed is dealing with an economy that is still running quite well. nominal gdp is nearly a seven handle. it is more the risk of the fact that this economic acceleration will ache night inflation. -- ache night -- ignite inflation paid he was ambivalent, saying they are not sure if that tells it. if you look at their projection changes, he indicated that the economy could grow faster. unemployment could rise less, will still getting inflation back to target. the forecast did present quite a big soft landing narrative that they could handle the stronger economy and still get inflation back to target. kriti: fascinating, because they are building their own playbook as they are doing it, kind of one might call it winging it. valerie tytel all over that story. back in europe, this was central bank and snb have their rate decisions at 8:30 a.m. london time. joining us for what to expect as bloomberg's reporter in zurich. let's start with a simple q

for europe it is madame lagarde that we are glad to watch. you think people are too bearish in europe? >> not for the next few months. we are having a sharp inventory correction. the u.s. economy near-term will be slowing down. near-term europe is having trouble. next year, global manufacturing will pick up. inventory correction will be over. next year europe good surprise on the upside. lisa: will some of this slow down and negativity correct inflation? >> our inflation does not have that much to do with domestic demand. inflation is coming down because there is a big shock on energy and food prices is fading. we have a bit of wage inflation for the next half year, but all in all inflation in europe is around 2.5% by the second half of next year. lisa: this is the dilemma to me. if it will not lead to low-inflation, if we are facing a stagflation environment in europe, how much is that the template that we are being forced to live with higher inflation even with taking the pain of de-risking, even with taking the pain of recession, even with

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