in search of some answers we are joined by lakshman achuthan managing director at the cycle research institute and chris lowe, chief economist at ftm fnl. guys, thank you so much for joining us. chris, it's a little confusing because jcpenney and walmart out raising their guidance, people seem thrilled about that, on the other hand you look at all the consumer data and it makes it seem like the consumer is hiding in the closet, hoarding their pennies, terrified to go out and spend anything. how do you reconcile all of it? >> well, that's right. between this week's retail sales and then today's sentiment numbers where consumer sentiment down two months in a row it doesn't look too good. but i think the answer is in the conference calls when you listen -- what's happening at these big retailers is not that they're expecting a bounce in revenue but they've jut done a superb job in managing their costs, both keeping labor costs down and also keeping inventories under control. if you look at the inventory breakdown in the report today, or rather yesterday, retail, the inventory to sales r

lakshman achuthan is a great friend of our show. you have been saying for some time the larger picture here is that this recession is ending right under us right now probably. >> absolutely. the information we are seeing this week on jobs is completely consistent. it's confirming that. back in april looking at forward-looking indicators, it became clear the recession ends this summer. some time between memorial day and labor day. we won't get the exact date for another year. >> that won't matter to most people. >> that's history by then. here it's like what is going on? is it getting worse or better? definitely that trend you just went over is showing us it is getting better. that doesn't mean it feels good or the recession is definitely over at this moment. we are still losing jobs. that is a key determinant. you have to grow jobs to say you are in an expansion. >> you have a great map. you have a different map -- i talked about unemployment rate. yours is different. this talks about job gains or losses. let's take a look at this m

joining us this morning is lakshman achton and rob morgan. good to see both of you. >> morning. >> good morning, becky. >> we've been watching markets continue to slug higher. rob, what at this point do you think is the biggest issues that the market can get weighing on or is this just a situation where the momentum may be running out of steam? >> 85% are jan thrd 50% moving averages. the market is melting up. whenever that happened, it's hard to predict where it will go. >> and lakshman, we were just talking about the positive signs that are out there. you take a look at what's been happening for the second half gdp, some of the forecast may have to be raised because of what's happening for cash for clunkers. when you're looking at this from the economic perspective, how does it all add up? >> the real kind of tug of war has to be not so much will we get a firmer economy in the middle of the year or is it sustainable or is it based on cash for clunkers so you'll have this back and forth. maybe some of this will material autoize down into the

joining us is lakshman achman and david salaby. thank you all so much for joining us today.at this stage, the dow is at its highest point since november last year. nasdaq, s&p highest point since october last year. but it seems there's a bit of fatigue and light volumes. what do you make of this? >> that's probably a sign just in the last week that the good news is not materially driving the market. the median tock and the s&p 500 are up. most companies are trading about 30% below their two-week high. when you combine that with the fact that free cash flow for the average company is flat to higher than year ago levels, that tells me that the market can still fight forward and find higher ground. >> what do you think, lakshman, do you agree? >> well, from a business cycle perspective, we have a recovery. so if you have an actual business cycle recovery, then you probably have a cyclical bull market, even though i think a lot of people hesitate to call this, whatever, 50% rise anything like a bull market. and i think the big concern out there is that we might run into somethin