so, that is maybe one way to take a look at it. > larry levin of trading advantage. thanks for your time today larry. have a good day. > > you too. retailers say uncertainty about the fiscal cliff is slowing holiday spending. there's nearly always a lull after the so-called black friday weekend of sales. but, as our cover story explains, this year the dip has been deeper. retailers knew it was coming. they just didn't know how bad it would be. the retail lull that followed the $59-billion blowout weekend from black friday to cyber monday. "it's pretty much been deeper than expected." "and it's persisted longer and we've seen growth rates lower than expected." there's nearly always a trough. how long it lasts and how deep it becomes in this case isn't the result of what is happening as much as what might happen. "i think the fiscal cliff is playing on people's minds and changing their spending habits in a dramatic way." "we're sort of worrying about what we don't know to worry about. are taxes going to go up for everybody? are they going to go up for a few?" to many, t

larry levin of trading advantage joins us now. larry, it feels like we are already hanging off that cliff. > > it definitely feels that way. everybody is obviously watching for some kind of news out of washington. that is what has moved the market every day for the past couple of weeks. it will be no different today. so i absolutely agree with you. > should investors be concerned about the move in the volatility index yesterday? > > it was interesting to see that, and it is really something that at least active investors watch on a regular basis, so any time the vix moves, i think it is something to watch. > what do you anticipate for the friday trade? > > i certainly think that we will see more lower prices in the market. the s&ps last week went below 1400, this past week. we have seen that, and i think that really shows us that we're going to see more trade below 1400 in the s&ps, so that is really what i'd watch for. > what about the volume? will it be there today? > > i think as long as this fiscal cliff sits in front of us, th

larry levin, does it look like it is going to trade down or up tomorrow morning?it looks like we will be up a little bit, certainly off of the lows that we saw below the 1400 level david. but i would watch that 1400 level tomorrow. only about 10 points away from it. it is in play in we drop a little bit overnight. 1400 level to watch tomorrow. david: thank you larry. shibani: let's head back to the floor of the new york stock exchange where we find nicole tracking the stocks. nicole: a lot of the retailers came under pressure today. there's no doubt. take a look at the shares. but it is lower today thanks to a note from citigroup, the analyst says that there were a lot of discounts on the michael kors products and accessories and that they were even more so than black friday. that doesn't bode well for margins and revenue. as a result citigroup lowered their price target on michael kors to $60 from $68. they did maintain the buy. there's no doubt that michael kors remains a hot brand, a desired brand during the holiday season, but when you have to discount like th

let's bring in larry levin with trading advantage. going to guess that maybe, just maybe, there will be a very very narrow deal announced much later on today. where we just tax people over a certain amount of money and deal with no other issues. if that's the case, what do you think the market reaction is to that? >> i think the market will move higher. i think the market is looking for some kind of deal. i think you are right, it is going to be some kind of mini deal. i was talking to a bunch of traders before i came on, and traders are buying this market. in fact, if you look at the charts over the last several days, every time we hit a low, stuart, we bounce off that low, and so that certainly tells you the traders, your viewers out there, investors, they are buying the market on the lows, this mini deal. stuart: you still have a lot of other issues that are untouched by the narrow deal. social security taxes going up tomorrow. obama care taxes going up tomorrow. if you get a bounce to the market, will it last? >> i don't think it

larry levin, thank you very much. now, this. japan, just terrible demographics.bies being born. will we have the same thing happening here? for every 1000 women of childbearing age -- that is the lowest birth rate in u.s. history. joining us now is keith fitzgerald. first, i want to just talk about the japanese situation. japan has the most extreme demographics in society in recorded history. for all people, fewer babies. >> they sell more adult diaper products than they do incident diaper products right now. stuart: is that true? >> yes, it is. stuart: is that one of the reasons why japan has had a 30 year standstill in their economy, if not a recession. >> yes. you can see it in italy. you can see it in japan. the reason for that is that the number of workers supporting the proportionate number of retirees to ross over time. there simply is not as much money being kicked into a system. stuart: japan has a far bigger debt than any european country and far bigger than the united states. i think that is true as a proportion of the gdp. >> when you add all the debt

. >>> joining us now from the chicago mercantile exchange, the cme is larry levin of trading advantageward, clear cut, from fitch. if you go over that cliff, we're going to downgrade you, because you're going to have a recession. what do you make of it? >> well, it's interesting. i thought it would have made some selling come into the stock index that are trading behind me, stuart, really didn't do that. in fact it was actually almost unnoticed as far as the traders were concerned didn't have any movement in any direction. a little bit of a surprise. i thought we would have had a bit of a sell off. but it is certainly going to put a lot -- more pressure than we already have on our politicians to get something done. stuart: i think you and are in an agreement, i think we both think we will get a deal, that will be tax the rich, promise to cut spending later, ignore the debt, we agree on this, i think? >> yeah, i think you are right. i think that's what will happen. they are running out of time and working on it every day. for the good of this country, we need some deal. even a bad deal

joining the company from chicago is larry levin with trading advantage. se, larry? >> sure, stuart, i went around and talked to a bunch of traders yesterday after the fed meeting because i'm thinking the same thing myself, why will this market not go higher; right? we're stuck in the mid to, you know, low 1400s on the s&p and been stuck there for a while. most traders said the same thing, stuart, they think if the fed wasn't doing what it's doing now, the market would be going down a whole bunch. they really feel and i kind of agree that the market is really being propped up. but it can only go so much higher from where it is right now. if you took the stuff out of the way, maybe the market goes down a whole bunch. stuart: that doesn't sound too good, just being propped up, that's the best we've got, propped up? that doesn't sound too good. >> it isn't good. and our government continuing to intervene and they have for a number of years now and don't show any signs of stopping. yesterday was another indication that it is going to continue forever. it's not

david: joining the company now from chicago is larry levin with trading advantage. hear a lot of theoretical talk, political talk about the fiscal cliff, let's get real specific. we actually have a chart of how much you're paying in taxes now on the left and this is how much extra you would pay if you go off the fiscal cliff. so look at that, if you're 50,000, you pay about 1200 bucks more. 100,000, $3600 more. how specific -- that's how it would affect individual income tax. how would it affect the economy and specifically the commodity trading that you do? >> well, it's for the stock indexes that i trade, the s&p and dow jones those markets i think will take a very large hit. in fact a good example of that would be what we saw about week and a half ago when we saw the republicans come in with the vote and then tend up not taking the vote at all. we saw the s&ps lose about 30 handles overnight, got a lot of that back because everybody thought they would go back and talk again. that's a really good example, a little bit of foreshadowing if you will of what's going to

levine font reporter for ust -- u.s. today and the speakers committee organized today's luncheon. dr. jim miller, undersecretary for defense policy. larry mavi, managing editor army magazine, john cosgrove, past president of the national press club and former commander of american legion post number 20 at the national press club. incoming editor-in-chief aviation week and past chairman of the national press club board of governors. paul shankman, national security reporter "u.s. news and world report." [applause] just 18 months ago our guest today leon panetta presided in the cia director over one of the most daring operations in the country's history. field team six's operation neptune spear, the raid on osama bin laden secret compound in pakistan. three days ago, defense secretary panetta landed in turkey where he signed an order that would send to patriot missile batteries in 400 u.s. troops to operate them to the turkish border, a stark warning to syria's president bashar al-assad to cease the airstrikes and fighting against syrian rebels that have bled into turkish territory. we can't spend a lot of time worrying about whether -- s