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larry mcdonald joining us.hile, a one-two punch for energy with tensions overseas and policies at home. chevron ceo mike wirth on the impact on u.s. oil prices, next. ♪ ♪ ♪3, 4♪ ♪ ♪hey♪ ♪ ♪are you ready for me♪ ♪are you ready♪ ♪are you ready♪ the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪ ) ( ♪ ) ( ♪ ) -awww. -awww. -awww. -nope. ( ♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall. maria: welcome back. from growing techs in the middle east to the biden administration's green energy push, my next guest says the risk of a rise in oil and gas prices this year is very real. i spoke with the chairman and ceo of chevron, mike wirth, at the world economic f

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market pricing in an 83% chance for a rate hike in may, maria spoke to bear traps report founder larry mcdonald'srrative. >> i think between march, april may, the probability of a soft landing in the eyes of wall street is going to come down dramatically, and that piece of the market emerging credit risk maturities next two years that triggers significant rate cuts in the middle of the year. will have. jackie: joining me macromavens president stephanie pomboy, great to see you this morning i want your reaction, to that, first of all do you agree with market overall seeing multiple cuts this year the first one potentially in may? or does larry have it right? >> no. i am in larry's camp actual i have been warning about this credit bust a long time has taken a long time to materialize we had largest number credit downgrades largest bankruptcy filings last year global final crisis other than during covid so i mean things are dedevolving, markets conflicted that we get a dramatic cut in rates will forestall continued wave of -- bankruptcy filings defaults, suddenly everything will be fine i am in lar

tom: larry mcdonald walking through the dynamics of the trillions and trillions of dollars in cash.ow will the cash unfold this year? stay in cash removed to bonds or move into marginal apple shares? >> there is $6 trillion sitting in money funds that we know that has to go somewhere. does it come back into the equity market or go into longer duration next income? we are starting to see some of that but it 4.0 four on the 10 year, we don't think that's a bait -- that's a goodbye. we were long-duration through the back half of the fourth quarter. people forgot how bond mathworks. lisa will remember this well. you still have two look at where strength came from as we close out the year, it came from the labor market, the consumer and it came from small business. we got the small business survey this morning and it picked up one point below it, small businesses say they're still having a hard time finding labor and they're having a hard time fight refinancing and prices are going up on the cost of input so small businesses aren't feeling great. when you get a layer down on the nonfarm

my good friend larry mcdonald talks about the head fake with rates. rates, and route to rates going up longer-term because of a lack of physical discipline. you have to be incredibly disciplined. and you have to wait. i think one of the area interviews, he said, treasuries -- cash is not trash. treasuries present a reasonable asset class, a good return and what will be a very volatile environment in 2024. guy: thank you for stopping by on your holiday. thank you very much. coming up, thousands of angry farmers protesting in berlin today. germany narrowly escaping following -- falling into a recession. this is an unpopular idea with the coalition and germany right now. we will turn our attention to what is happening there, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ [announcer] if you're thinking about earning your degree online, snhu can help you get there. - i felt supported throughout the whole process, even from the first call. [graduate] my advisors consistently reached out and guided me along the way. - it was like i was talking to a friend, like someone that i h

mcdonald. >> that's what the segway larry, thank you so much about we always appreciate you okay, we have is coming in, speaker johnson will reject the senate border deal that is stop the border collapsed and also former the lack of a james klapper to sell saying, that the border is a u.s. national security crisis. does it looks like ea funny willis, fulton county, georgia just made her scandal, worse and for the first time just target u.s. cargo ship with the ballistic missile off of yemen never submitted that is coming after, president of biden - the sum the terror watch list in february of 2020 phone entering this we are just hours away from final results in the iowa caucuses tonight for the gop nomination for president, pretty creditable as urbandale iowa, the very latest grady. >> liz, is clear former president trump is in the driver seat of his race is it ready here and trump campaign hq knows what were looking for tonight is not just who wins the iowa copley and caucasus but also by how much and who is got the momentum heading into the next contest, indo hampshire it is a little quiet

, will consider that as time goes on and we have melissa mcdonald coming here to take the ball and run the drive the software. liz: train it larry, number singer new terrific and thank you larry, joining us now let's get out of former white house attorney in a opossum columnist divine, think about so much for joining us okay, for seo, here's the thing and i went gop caucus just a week away in this big fight gearing up now to remove trump from the ballot in states like colorado in the fight is now the supreme court in may, what you think of the state attorneys general permanent have the nation 27 say slow morning them in court that this push to remove trump is illegal and unconstitutional will trigger chaos if he is removed from saint bella's 20 think this g goes. may: i think the rightness of the states and i think will actually see another brief from these states, say hello things, flood, i think that it will be total chaos if all states are just on their own 73 interpret the 14th a minute however the night and to it's very obvious, the congress is about to do something in order to give life to the 14th amendment in the race a