bill: larry sabato, thank you.ish we had more time and there's a lot to talk about, interesting results in pennsylvania you pointed out, and we'll go through that, throughout the day, too. thank you. larry sabato. >> thank you, bill. bill: alisyn. alisyn: we want to break done the debt deal for you, what exactly does america get out of the down to the wire fight? will you, the taxpayer, see any real savings or does the deal ignore the real problem? a fair and balanced debate on that. bill: and how about the stowaway you don't want hanging around? watch this a second. alisyn: scary! bill: a figure they are going 60, 65 miles per hour. alisyn: looks like it. bill: that is a snake. on the windshield. see how this ride ends, in a moment. an accident doesn't have to slow you down. with better car replacement, if your car is totaled, we give you the money for a car one model year newer. liberty mutual auto insurance. alisyn: fox news alert. we are awaiting a senate vote on the long awaited debt deal. the white house is n

larry sabato.ou are generous to president obama giving him toss-up status in florida and ohio, are you not? >> well, remember, as you said, bill, the election is 15 months away. if the election were this november, i would have given both of those toss-ups to the republicans assuming they nominated a mainstream candidate. >> bill: okay. but that's a little bit of a reuse, because your map reflects what's happening today. if the economy turns great, then a lot of these states are going to turn to different, i would say mr. obama will have a much better chance in a lot of these states. but, right now, in ohio, with john kasich governor and in florida with scott governor, both republicans, people really angry in both states, furious. the state polls say that president obama is losing among independents, certainly big time in both of those states. am i wrong? >> well, that's true today. but, actually, my matt is -- math is a projection of what i think it will be in november of 2012. i have got -- >> all

also out with new information today, professor larry sabato, his crystal ball is out.lk to you today, larry. first, to this florida poll because one of the other questions asked of florida voters was who they preferred, mitt romney or president obama. and we're going to show our viewers the results. it was a dead heat at this time. what do you make of that? >> this well, jenna, that's a very significant poll. as you know, florida was one of three southern states that president obama carried in 2008. the president has lost seven points in florida just since may. florida is one of the great swing states, one of the great mega states. and this is a significant poll not just because of the points the president has lost, but also because of what you just put up on the screen. romney has tied obama there. what does that mean? it means that the election were held today, i think it's very likely that romney would defeat obama. you don't look at the opponent's percentage, you look at the incumbent's percentage. if it's well below 50, then the incumbent is likely to lose if the

larry sabato is director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. . larry, you say we should expect some outrageous statements tonight. >> well, i think from some of the candidates, jon. particularly the undercard candidates who are well behind. look, it's exactly what you just said. we're getting close to the real process beginning. it's time for the polite patty cake to end. presidential politics is not a sunday afternoon tea party. this is top rough stuff and the candidates know it, i think they expect a lot of back and forth, rock pem sock 'em. >> you mentioned tea parties, are there going to be appeals to the tea partiers in this debate? >> absolutely. i wasn't referring specifically to the tea party, just a british-style, polite tea party. but yes, i think there will be overt appeals because after all they're a big part of the republican base, you've got maybe 10,000 people who are going to participate in this ames straw poll on saturday. there's no question that hundreds of those voters, maybe thousands, will be influenced at the last minute b

larry sabato thank you so much for previewing it for us.ican presidential debate live from aims, iowa. it is could he sponsored by the washington examiner and the iowa republican party. right here on fox on august 11th. clear your calendars. bill: we'll have all the coverage the following day to let you know what happened and who scored and who did not. coming up then. jon scott is coming up in 12 minutes. how you doing, jon happy monday. jon: happy monday to you. the political plame game underway as reaction to the downgrade. it will affect the 2012 election, but how? bret baier is with us live. a nato helicopter crash that killed 30 americans over the weekend, the worst single day for our country in this long afghan war. will it in any way change the newt of the u.s. mission there? also a nationwide manhunt for a florida family on a dangerous crime spree, three siblings on the run since last week. their mother making a desperate plea for her children to surrender. what are they wanted for? oh, oh, oh, wait until you hear "happening now" i

joining us now is larry sabato, director for the center of politics at the university of virginia. od to see you, larry, thanks for being here. president obama won in the 2008 by expanding the map and really going after some states that traditionally democrats have sort of conceded to republicans. will that kind of strategy work in 2012? >> well, of course, as you noted, we're 15 months out, 14 months out, and it's difficult to see what the conditions will be. fundamentally, remember, the electoral college has loads of critics, but those critics don't include political analysts. we love talking about the electoral college because it gives us 51 separate elections to discuss. that's what really matters here. will the electoral college majority that barack obama achieved that was enormous in 2008, will it stay the same, expand or contract? well, today, obviously, most of us would bet contract. there are states like north carolina, particularly indiana that i think he's very unlikely to carry again. rick: a couple of states, seven actually, that you have in your crystal ball as saying

larry sabato teechesz at the university there i have been saying this whole debt deal is bad for president obama, many people disagree with me on that. what say you? >> it's been bat bad for him. look, independents and swing voters, saw a president who was disengaged. who appeared irrelevant for a lot of the last week and frankly, i think is, looking more and more carter-ized referring to jimmy carter. look at the left, bill. you mentioned. this i think the left on the democratic side actually has it right. the republicans control 1/3 of the national government but they got two thirds of this deal. so, for president obama, it did look like he caved. >> bill: but the reason that the republicans if you want to say they won and i'm not sure in the hearts and finds of americans that's the case, i think that it is so obvious, doctor, that the country is in economic peril, so obvious that you can't sustain a spending jihad like the democrats want to sustain. you heard krugman. you heard barney frank. you hear these people day in and day out. most americans go are you insane? it's more about the

larry sabato teechesz at the university there i have been saying this whole debt deal is bad for president obama, many people disagree with me on that. what say you? >> it's been bat bad for him. look, independents and swing voters, saw a president who was disengaged. who appeared irrelevant for a lot of the last week and frankly, i think is, looking more and more carter-ized referring to jimmy carter. look at the left, bill. you mentioned. this i think the left on the democratic side actually has it right. the republicans control 1/3 of the national government but they got two thirds of this deal. so, for president obama, it did look like he caved. >> bill: but the reason that the republicans if you want to say they won and i'm not sure in the hearts and finds of americans that's the case, i think that it is so obvious, doctor, that the country is in economic peril, so obvious that you can't sustain a spending jihad like the democrats want to sustain. you heard krugman. you heard barney frank. you hear these people day in and day out. most americans go are you insane? it's more about the

. >>> and speaking of forecasters, larry sabato is here with his 2012 election crystal ball, why some in time -- this time around. martha: i could watch surfing videos all way long. that's the truth. i could. jenna: you and me both. martha: thank you jenna. >>> here's what was thought on a -- here's what was caught on surveillance video, a wild car chase, multiple officers crashing their cruisers. the details on the suspects and the horrifying ending to this story. >> i'm trying to hold my spot, with the gas, at that speed. gregg chilling dash cam video that claimed a police officer's life, look at this, chasing a man through fernando county, florida when a deputy lost control and slammed into power lines, there were sparks flying everywhere, that officer suffered only minor injuries but sadly, seconds later, another officer was killed when he lost control of his cruiser and hit a tree, and a married father of three was trying to make the suspect spin out. >> well, for nearly a century, idaho's lake lowell has been a gathering place for friends in the summer but the federal government

. >> reporter: larry sabato. >> the white house fully understands that. here's the truth. it's going to take a lot of good luck. presidents are either lucky or they aren't. >> reporter: the president's staff says his message from this point forward will be unrelenting. jobs, jobs, jobs. the red line shows how deep job losses have been in this recession compared to all other post war recessions and how slow the recovery continues to be. >> if the economy looks anything like it does today, barack obama is very likely to be a one-term president. but if the economy looks better to americans by november 2012, then obama has a reasonable shot at a second term. >> reporter: so whether or not congress is willing to listen, the president will definitely be asking for jobs programs. he'll be hoping that the people who were for him last time, including all those independent voters are listening. erica? >> bill plant at the white house this morning. bill, thanks. here's chris. >> erica, thank you. >>> egypt's former president hosni mubarak has been in seclusion since he was forced out

megyn: a lot of our viewers know larry sabato. he just tweeted out that he calls it the biggest earthquake ever felt in charlottesville, virginia. there is lots of glass and paper on the floor and other damage down there. just getting new reports of what different folks have felt. again this is rather extraordinary. we have had smaller territory quakes in particular in the washington, d.c. area over the past few years. we have not had reports of significant damage. it is early, folks. this news just hit moments ago. i want to get to our producer who is in times square to report on what was felt and heard out there. ron? >> reporter: we are downtown covering the dominique strauss-kahn hearing. all of a sudden we felt the truck rattle and shake. it almost seemed like the subway car was coming underneath us. and we looked up and the districts attorney said don't worry bits. i have been in territory quakes in seattle. nobody panicked. then of course you looked outside and people were just running out of the court buildings. we asked a

. >> they didn't come to a meeting of the minds and makes you wonder as politico larry sabato told meional society. we don't want to listen to c-span. it's too boring! maybe politicians are now judged on how well they respond to hecklers not how well they explain their policies. he says we could end up with baseball style brawls at campaign rallies. a political dog pile with everyone jumping on top of one another it would end? something to think about. here is the talkback question today. facebook.com/americanmorning. read your comments later this hour. >> if you assume that people with heckle and not -- that it doesn't escalate into violence, a different assumption. if the worst it gets is heckling the issue are we escalate nothing a world people are frustrating and not conveying it effectively? >> it's sort of you heckle for a purpose and it's not really to get a straight answer from a politician, it's to get a gotcha moment that turns up on youtube to prove your point further out there in the world of the political discourse. is that the best way we have to get what we want from po