and, larry sabato has a map you must see. we'll share it with you. martha: very interesting, coming up and he's one of the most influenti influential republicans in the senate and jim demint says he might skip president obama's speech thursday night. why he's standing up to the leader of the free world. bill: and president bush using air force one as a command and control center on the day that changed america. 9/11, the eyes of the man who piloted the president's plane on that fateful day. >>... i was frustrated i was flying around the country and i was frustrated we had been attacked and i was frustrated the communications system wasn't working any good. bill: there has been a major shakeup for michelle bachmann's campaign. she is losing her campaign chief. and his deputy. aides down playing the resignations but, ed rollin had interesting comments, he's 68, blaming himself and claiming he cannot handle the day-to-day grind and these campaigns are a grind. and he says she's very much in the thing and, says the two are a good team and it is a good ti

we'll see, we'll talk to larry sabato just ahead. folks in texas and surrounding states facing the worst drought in decades. the concerns nation and worldwide. how it will affect everything from the price of what you wear to what you eat. that just ahead. uh, i'm in a timeout because apparently riding the dog like it's a small horse is frowned upon in this establishment! luckily though, ya know, i conceal this bad boy underneath my blanket just so i can get on e-trade and check my investment portfolio, research stocks, and set conditional orders. wait, why are you taking... oh, i see. hey max, would it kill you to throw a guy a warning bark? [ dog barks ] you know i wanted a bird. [ male announcer ] e-trade. investing unleashed. not clumps or gaps. the answer... it's all in the wrap. covergirl introduces new lashperfection mascara. "the secret" -- the lashwrap brush perfectly wraps each lash for up to 3x more volume. jenna: one of the big stories we've been watching are the wildfires raging in texas. the possom kingdom fire is skoerb

this is a topic of larry sabato's crystal ball predictions.ctions with us once a week on thursday. he is director of university of virginia center for politics. larry, why do you think this? >> jenna, this is a new powerful movement and of course whenever you have new, powerful movement, academics political scientists historians run to study them. there are always pluses and minuses to any new movement. this particular movement brings energy and enthusiasm to the republican party but whenever you have new people coming in who aren't familiar with some of the norms of politics, sometimes they can push a party out of the mainstream. i don't think that's happened in 2010, except in some isolated senate races and some house races. but it could happen, could happen in the presidential primaries next year and i think that's something that some of the longer-term republican leaders are concerned about. jenna: do you think the tea party, as you mentioned, taking a look at this new movement and its importance, make the distinction between movement and

larry sabato is the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. larry, thank you so much for being here. let me ask you that, who do you think -- start with missed opportunities. were there any? who missed them? >> oh, there are always missed opportunities. i think probably rick perry would admit that he missed a number of opportunities last night to take back his answer on immigration. i think he would. he would certainly phrase it differently. he wouldn't suggest that those who have a critical view on american immigration policies are heartless. i don't think that helped him with the conservative base, and of after all, that's his base. that's why he shot to the top of the polls and has been leading mitt romney, although i think after last night, megyn, i think that debate mattered. i think his lead is a little shakier today, maybe a lot shakier than it was yesterday. megyn: you know, i can tell you having been on the site and having talked to political analysts all around the area, these are republicans who are at this thing, right? so this is t

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larry sabato has looked into his crystal ball.says congressional election outcomes will depend on who vote put in the white house. professor sabato joins us now from chart lotsville where he is at the center of politics. you say democrats have a tough road to who he. >> they do indeed. there are 33 seats up. it's pretty obvious if you go state-by-state that the republicans have a significant edge. our elections for senate are not national, they are centered in the third of the states that have elections in any year, and republicans have a pretty good set of states given the likely outcome of the presidential condition test as you go state-by-state. jon: how many seats do republicans need to pick up and where do you see them picking them up? >> they have to pick up four seats unless they win the presidency and the vice president see and then they'll need three. they really already got one in north dakota. they have a wide range of seats from which to pick up the next two or three, you know, montana, and missouri, and nebraska, and

larry sabato, university of virginia this morning. >> thank you, martha. martha: we ask you our question of the day. which republican candidate do you think will end up with president obama. 1200 people weighed in. 70% think it will not be rick perry or mitt romney who end up being the one who run against president obama. how about that. somebody else they think. go to our foxnews.com/americas newsroom. and or send us a tweet and let us know what you think. bill: it is not science. martha: 70% says they're not the one. bill: gives you idea what folks are thinking. breaking news on the economy and real estate market and it is not good again in august. sales of new homes fell for the sixth-month low in august. that is the fourth straight monthly decline during the peak buying season. which is another strong indicator that the housing market could be years away from recovery. new home sales off 2.3%. that is just in right now crossing from washington. martha? martha: it was a road trip from hell. check it out. unbelievable. 50 tourists lucky to be alive this

larry santlarry sabato is here. how wil are you doing. >> i'm doing fine. if you look at the top ten states in the worst shape i think you can make an argument here that at least four of these ten are critical swing states in 2012. nevada and flashes but also michigan and north carolina. how do you see it? >> those are it. you took the words right out of my mouth, bill. those four states have higher than expected unemployment rates, it's higher than the national average. obviously the republican nominee will make that issue one in campaigning in each of those states. you know, we have too much focus on the national number, bill. the national number is interesting, but we have a state-by-state system of electing the president. what really matters to people is the unemployment rate in their state, and in those four states that is going to be the big issue for the republican nominee. bill: i want you to explain that in greater depth here. you write in your website here, national unemployment rate alone is not a good indicator of results. a lot of people look t

larry sabato looks into his crystal ball. >> eric: here is gavin degraw warming up for his big performanceama to victory. with dismal numbers and bad economy, the president is facing his toughest critics in the very places that sent him to the white house with an increasing number of voters now turning their backs on the president, disillusion, can he still win in 2012? dr. larry sabato, director of the university of virginia center for politics, his crystal ball has been incredible in the past. we'll ask you to look at it now. welcome back. >> hey, how are you? >> brian: everyone is caught up in the popularity vote. it doesn't matter. that's not the game we're playing. the game we're playing is state by state. let's look at key states. in florida in 2008, he won with 50% of the vote. 50.9 i should say. now? >> if the election were held now, he would certainly lose florida. i don't think it would even be particularly close. probably 53, 47, something like that. obviously we're talking about 14 months from now. so things can change. but on all these close states from 2008, what you look for

calendar could move iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses to january 2, said political scientist larry sabato, director of the university of virginia's center for politics. what do you think about the effectiveness of the presidential primary system? we'll put the numbers back on the screen. please allow 30 days between your calls. wanted to point this out also. prominent u.s.-born cleric killed in yemen. anwar al-awlaki who became a prominent figure in al qaeda's most active branch using his fluent english and internet savvy was killed friday in the mountains of yemen. they announced his death but gave no details of u.s. senior official and they support the claim he has been killed. they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss those matters. al al-awlaki it would be most prominent of the al qaeda to be killed since osama bin laden. in july leon i netta said he and al zawahiri were among the top being sought. from the washington times, bill funds government for four days. it took just nine points in keep the federal government's basic operations running for the first four days of octob

larry sabato says it comes down to seven key states. he's the director of the center of politics alternate the university of virginia and has his crystal ball today. larry, why these seven states. >> those are president seven states, jenna because historically and using current polling data, they are the ones that are on the edge of the fence. they could tip one way or the other, assuming the race is actually close. you know, if this election were held this november i think it would be another 1980. i don't think it would be close at all. jenna: in which direction as far as -- >> oh, in the republican direction. jenna: the republican direction. >> in 1980 in the sense that ronald reagan won over 40 states in 1980, given the state of the economy, this would be heavily tilted to the republicans if you had a mainstream republican candidate, say either romney or perry. jenna: that's interesting to hear you say that because you also wrote in the crystal ball as far as the seven key swing states that at this point now 14 months ahead of the el

larry sabato. to take a look, if we can, at the states that pretty much always -- let's take a look at this. the key swing states that you believe will determine the election, nevada, colorado, iowa, ohio, virginia, new hampshire and florida. why these states? >> because all of history, plus current polling suggests that these states are the swingiest of the swing states. if you had to pick one to watch, i'm a native virginiaan, i love virginia, but i would pick ohio. ohio has gone with the winner in 27 of the last 29 presidential elections. only franklin roosevelt in 1944 who lost it to tom dewey and john kennedy in 1960 who lost the state to richard nixon have won the president sit without winning ohio. i know brian knew that, but a lot of people don't know that about ohio. so that is the key state. but you look at the others. you want some in each region. i've got new hampshire in the northeast. you could argue it's pennsylvania and look, we talk about swing states. if the election were held thi

calendar could move iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses to january 2, said political scientist larry sabatofor politics. what do you think about the effecteness of the presidential primary system? we'll put the numbers back on the screen. please allow 30 days betwn your calls. wanted to point this out also. prominent u.s.-born cleric killed in yemen. anwar al-awlaki who became a prominent figure in al qaeda's most active branch using his fluent english and internet savvy was killed friday in the mountains of yemen. they announced his death but gave no details of u.s. senior official and they support the claim he has been killed. they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss those matters. al al-awlaki it would be most prominent of the al qaeda to be killed since osama bin laden. in july leon i netta said he and al zawahiri were ang the top being sought. from the washington times, bill funds government for four days. it took just nine points in keep the federal government's basic operations running for the first four days of october at a rate of nearly $3 billion a day. the house was n