larry, great to see you, thank you very much, larry sabato. from down in my neck of the woods. what does larry johnson make of what larry sabato just said? he is my guest tonight on fox business network. someone else saying goodbye, donald trump is here. but, first, will iran threatening to block key oil passage have the president liting his -- lifting his block on a key pipeline right here? >>dagen: and iran is ready to cut down a key oil passage, the target is the strait of hormuz with 50ment barrels moving through each day. if this is blocked, oil prices go straited up. phil, we saw a drop today because everyone thinks iran will not follow-through. was that a huge mistake people are making? >>guest: well, i don't think so. to be honest. the iranians better think twice. one of the reasons why you saw oil prices go down today was that the 5th fleet of the u.s. navy took exception to some of the bluster from iran they could shut down down the states of hormuz as easy as drinking a cup of water. but, dagen, this is the most important choke point for oil. 33 percent of all the wor

jenna: we'll talk with larry sabato coming up in a little bit. he will talk about whether or not, a brand new candidate basically out of nowhere can come into the race and changes things up. whether vice-presidential ticket or race for the president itself. do you think, one, that can happen and number two, will that bring the republican voters you say are still just not convinced by romney, will that bring them back around? >> well, look, it is possible with the vice-presidentialal pick, romney could seek to ameliorate the problem he has with the republican base, so on, so forth. those are all conjecture. what we're looking at right now the heart of all this can gingrich stay in the saddle and if not as you say who emerges out of the dust to come through? you have to keep your eye on ri perry. you have to keep your eye on jon huntsman getting half after second look because he is seen as more constant than gingrich and more conservative than romney. so as the conservatives are sort of grasping around looking for somebody to be their standard-bear

we'll talk to larry sabato. bill: i think that would be a great meeting to attend, don't you, martha? when you see "the donald" and newt gingrich sitting down and you talking about the big issue the election coming up in 25 days. economically in iowa on the map behind us shows you deeper the red more trouble you are in. the lighter the green better off you are doing. the national unemployment average, 8.6% as of last friday. but in iowa we see over the last three years they have lost 19,000 jobs going back to november of 2008. national average is 8.6%. the rate in iowa? 6.0%. so sometimes the economic issue we find in other states may not be as prominent as we're finding in the state of iowa. sometimes social issues. let's pop out of that real quick. where are we going there? there we go. so sometimes the social issues come to the forefront in iowa more so than other states. we found a poll that puts gingrich in the lead. also finding more than six in 10 potential caucus-goers say they could change their mind. 6

who better to ask than political maestro larry sabato. you argue it's very realistic and there is precedent. explain. >> absolutely. neil. it's entirely possible because under the new republic rules, you can get in as late as early february and still qualify for enough primaries and caucuses to compete for delegates at the national convention. second, it's entirely possible to win the nomination getting in late assuming there is is a good candidate who gets in simply because if you win a bunch of the late big primaries like bobby kennedy did in 1968 or jerry brown did in 1976, you can make an argument to the delegates that you have the momentum and you should be nominated. >> neil: in the case of bobby kennedy, even allowing for his tragic assassination and winning the california primary that night, he was still well shy in the dell gatt count and far from guaranteed the nomination. so what -- is it just the momentum issue? >> well, you have to make an argument. you have to say i'm winning these primaries and kennedy one a slew of them at

larry sabato, university of virginia. >> thank you, bill. martha: very interesting. he can not be looking forward to this, folks. jon corzine is going to testify before his former senate colleagues on one of the biggest corporate meltdowns ever. will he be able to explain to them where more than a billion dollars appears to have vanished? bill: great question, huh, where is it? here we go again, occupy protests turning violent as demonstrators try to block a major seaport. how it is affecting shipments coming in and out and more on that. [shouting] [ male announcer ] what if you have potatoes? but you've got a meat and potatoes guy? pour chunky sirloin burger soup over those mashed potatoes and dinner is served. four minutes, around four bucks. campbell's chunky -- it's amazing what soup can do. bill: 23 minutes past the hour now. police questioning a group of hunters. two students shot outside their texas middle school. police suspect the kids rather the kids may have been hit by stray rounds from hunting fields nearby. >>> seattle police using pepper spray and flas

larry sabato is up next.: a new initiative to help american troops returning from the front lines. what one senator is now doing to tackle one of the biggest problems facing returning vets. >> you just have to work with these young men and women right now. i mean, that is really our bottom line target problem is the young men and women who are onto three, four, five deployments and they are returning and bringing a lot of problems back with them. [ woman ] ♪ what i want this season ♪ if you'd like to try and guess ♪ ♪ it is something very special ♪ i would readily confess [ dogs barking ] ♪ 'cause all i want this season ♪ ♪ is something from your heart ♪ la da da, la da da [ male announcer ] thinking of others this holiday season, travelers. gregg: it is 22 minutes past the hour. here are some of the top stories we are following. bad news nor sears after holiday sales take a tumble. up to 120 stores will close after sales at both sears and k-mart dropped, not clear which stores will be closing. britain's prin

larry sabato's crystal ball ahead arthel: a fox news alert for you. a 40-car pileup in new orleans. rick folbaum has the story from our breaking news desk. rick what is the latest. >> reporter: this is your hometown. you know this area very well, i-10 very heavily trafficked highway right through new orleans and there was a pileup involving 40 cars before dawn this morning. two people have been killed. we're sorry to say. 22 other people had to be taken to local hospitals. as we get a live look here this is a picture of the scene here in new orleans, louisiana, after this pileup. there was a firefighter also injured while working at the scene trying to help people out. we don't know exactly how this accident first took place but again, this pileup situation, two people dead, 22 injured. that highway, by the way is still closed, arthel. not sure when i-10 will be able to reopen but serious traffic problems this morning and on through the rest of the day i'm sure. as we get more information we'll pass it along. back to you. jon: all right. so it's almost 2012. we're counting down of c

looking at my switter, larry sabato, a familiar face at fox news, several times, and an endorsement guarantees little. engaged voters do their own picking. cain's people will scatter to several candidates and no en masse transfer. and more coming in from his competitors, newt gingrich writes in twitter feed, i am proud it know herman cain, consider him a friend and i know he will continue to be a powerful voice for years to come. and as to how herman cain affected the debate in the presidential race, gingrich tips his hat to him on the tax plan saying that herman cain's 9-9-9 plan got our country talking about the critical issue of tax reform and elevated the dialog at primary, similar words from john huntsman who remains in the race as well. we'll hear a lot through the rest of the day, saying what herman cain brought to the race and i assume there probably won't be a lot of people saying, yes, but, what about the allegations? and think they'll allow him a graceful exit from the the campaign and as we were saying before and talking, patti ann was talking about with the two political analysts,

larry sabato, everybody. up for the fox news channel debate this thursday in iowa. and you can get in on the action, too. head over to foxnews.com/debate and enter the questions you would like to see asked. on debate night you can watch the candidates face off live right here on fnc or streaming live on our web site. it starts at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. don't waste time. i'll be part of the panel of questions. i just want to tell you we are going to have some interesting questions that you haven't heard before. some of these debates, they keep asking the same questions. we already hurt answers to these questions. not going to happen at the fox news channel debate. you will be surprised at where we are going thursday night. that's what you call a tease. see you thursday, then friday again. on this show. not really because i'll be traveling in the air. thursday night at 9:00. be there. coming up, they say it's just a game, about it many hard to be a good sport when you are getting schooled by the other team. se

. >> reporter: the university of virginia, center for politics larry sabato, says that ours found outnly two campaigns how it would take compete organizationally. that would be romney and paul. virginia has 13 electoral votes. president obama won the state in 2008. >> kelly: many people might be wrong if s this gaffe going to change the republican field. we will ask campaign manager susan estrich when she joins us live at 6:00 p.m. eastern. >> heather: in a political pressure cooker the house yesterday passing a two-month extension of the payroll tax cuts for 160 million americans. house republicans retreating saying the bill was simply unacceptable. opponent supporters is calling it a political victory as president arrives in hawaii for his christmas vacation. live from honolulu, this vacation, maybe a brief respite of the payroll tax holiday, right. >> reporter: it looks that way. listen you've got to give round one to the potted this. this was a victory for him. he is able to savor that along with the setting here in hawaii. just before he left washington, he did sign into law the

jon: larry sabato is here with his crystal ball.ount down to the fox news gop debate in iowa, we are also looked ahead to another key battleground state this primary season. you won't be surprised to hear it is all about florida. sabato is the director for center of politics at the university of virginia and is our guest right now. you know, so much gets focused on iowa, so much attention gets focused there. then you go right away to new hampshire. you could have a split decision there easily. then you get into south carolina and finally from. florida has a track record of picking the eventual republican nominee, right? >> they have a pretty good track record. of course south carolina likes to claim that too. we don't want to upset the palmetto state voters. but i'll tell what you is really significant about florida this year. they butted in line and went fourth ahead of january. jon: they got spanked for that. >> they got spanked for that. their 99 delegates turned into 50 but they made it winner-take-all. they weren't supposed to

in a tight race maybe a lot says uba larry sabato, for better or worse. >> it's pretty obvious that most people concluded that cain isn't telling the full truth about the women. for newt gingrich in particular, given his background with three marriages and adultery, i don't know it will necessarily help him. >> cain could pull votes from whomever he endorses. his name will appear on the primary ballot in new hampshire, south carolina and florida. >> herman cain. >> florida where cain first looked like a september. winning september straw poll. he followed that up by taking the lead in iowa. it looked like he might survive the sexual harassment scandal. after ginger white alleged 1346 year affair, his numbers tanked. it wasn't worth the pain to his family to stay in the race. >> much has been made of cain suspending rather than terminating his campaign. it means nothing. the federal election committee won't let the campaign to shut down until it satisfies all of its debt and obligation. with contribution to cain's campaign falling off a cliff, it could take some time. in atlanta, john rob

larry sabato is peering into his crystal ball, and he'll join us.ul campaign adviser and senator chuck grassley of iowa. plus a jet plane crashes, flips over and bursts into flames, and everybody onboard survives. we'll tell you more. and a medical breakthrough for the e.r. that could save your life. we'll see you in just a few minutes, "happening now." patti ann: all right, jon, looking forward to it, thanks. >>> well, you have probably heard the expression i feel your pain, well, some twins claim they actually do feel each other's pain. lauren was nearly killed by an airplane propeller, her twin sister now say she's been hurting too. is that even possible? we'll talk about it. gregg: and a rose bowl tradition may have actually saved a man's life when a college ball player came to his aid during dinner at larry's beef bowl in beverly hills. we're going to hear from the hero next. >> you never want to have to use something like that, but the guy was struggling, and the guy that was helping him didn't seem like he was getting the job done. gregg: wel

larry sabato says in a tight race that could make a difference for better or worse. >> it's pretty obvious that cain isn't telling the full truth about these women. and, of course, for newt gingrich in particular, given his background with three marriages and adultery, i don't know that this will necessarily help him. >> and, shep, ironically, he still could effect the vote in the first three prime minister states because in new hampshire, south carolina, and florida, he will be on the ballot. >> shepard: he didn't quit. he suspended his campaign. you can explain the significance of this distinction? >> there really isn't a difference, shep. whatever language you use is just language. i'm suspending my campaign, i'm ending it. i'm throwing the whole kit and caboodle off the bridge. you can't terminate the campaign until you meet the fec criteria for doing that retiring your debt and obligations. can get federal matching funds. it can take years to terminate a campaign. bill clinton and al gore's re-election campaign committee from 1996 still active and still filing reports with the fec. >>

if they were to win iowa and what they might do next, larry sabato thank you so much. >> thank you, richardans are spending a record amount of money online this holiday gift giving season. last week marked the busiest week in online shopping ever with consumer spending more than $6 billion. online retailers have been trying to edge out their brick and mortar counterparts with big deals and free shipping. cnbc jane wells joins me from a target distribution center in tucson, arizona. are online retailers making a huge dent in store sales? >> they are making a dent, but the real goal of retail is to have them leveraging. i'm at a target.com fulfillment center in tucson. it's the first time they've ever let a camera in here. these are boxes that machines are making as orders come in. an hour after you order something on target.com they start making the box. they start through this huge facility in here which they can fit like 16 football fields, they say. this where i'm standing is where it all starts. >> 15 football fields. look at all of those packages running by. have you taken a count to se

. >> the university of virginia's larry sabato.tor of center for policy says another way to look at the fiasco, republicans found out they're only going campaigns to have what it takes to compete organizally, host will be romney and paul, kelly? >> wow, it's quite, quite startling to see the developments and what's the reaction from the perry campaign this morning? >> well, the perry campaign pointed out in an e-mail to fox that their candidate got in the race mid august and saying that this is an isolated situation and it will not impact governor perry's qualifying for the ballots in every other state and while gingrich says he's going to push down for a write in campaign in virginia, perry's folks are saying they're looking at the law to determine whether an appeal or a challenge is warranted. kelly. >> kelly: and we thank you for that. of course, that's going to take place on super tuesday, march 6th. we'll see what happens with the g.o.p. and the state of virginia. thanks, peter. >> yeah. >> jamie: well, there's a lot more, kel

. >> larry sabato says republicans now have a fair to good chance of taking control of the senate. nelson's seat likely is an easy pick-up for the g.o.p. democrats may try to persuade former nebraska senator bob kerrey to run for the seat. sabato says kerry may give democrats 50/50 odds in nebraska. even that may be generous. kerry said in an interview earlier this month that he wouldn't rule out a senate run but said it's, quote, highly unlikely that he would do it. trace? >> trace: molly hen werg live for us in the nation's capital. our nation's credit limit is about to max out. the obama administration now set to ask congress to raise it by $1.2 trillion. this is all part of the debt ceiling deal negotiated over the summer. and treasury department officials say we need to raise the limit now because by friday the federal government will be within $100 billion of the current limit. president obama carving out time for work during his hawaiian vacation nominating a democrat and republic to fill two open spots on the federal reserve board. by picking a member of the opposition part

. >> the university of virginia, senate for politics director larry sabato says another way to look atlot fiasco is that ours just found out two campaigns have what it takes to compete organizationally. that would be romney and paul. the only two will be on the primary ballot. virginia has 13 electoral votes. you need 270 to win and president obama won that state in 08. >> peter doocy, thanks very much. here with us now to talk about it, susanest ridge, professor of law and professor of science in southern california and of course news contributor. great to have you in new york. >> great to see new person. if only upstairs, gregg. merry christmas to you. >> merry christmas. thank you very much. look, sabato probably has a pretty good point here. this doesn't bode well, at least in terms of management and organization for some of these republican presidential candidates, right? >> no, as you know, this is really just awful. there are some states that have really onerus ballot requirements and candidates have trouble with them. but virginia shouldn't be that hard. 10,000 signatures for a

larry sabato is the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia and he joins usng, steve. >> steve: this is embarrassing not only for perry, but also for newt gingrich because newt gingrich lives in virginia. >> yes, it is. i have to say, it's also kind of embarrassing for virginia. it's hard to get in our club, steve. but that's a pretty paltry primary to have just romney and paul and it reduces voter choice. but look, i've lived here my life and we've had these rules forever. they were passed and updated in 1982. so it's not like a surprise that you have to get this many signatures and that they have to be geographickiccally distributed and all the rest of it. gingrich lives here. both gingrich and perry are the southern candidates in the field and for them not to take the time and effort to qualify for the ballot is a major strike against them. >> steve: well, explain to us, if you would, professor, why it is so hard to get on the commonwealth of virginia ballot. >> well, this was designed by incumbents, steve. i know this will shock you. they like to reduce c

larry sabato who has been right about every presidential race.bage. i'm looking forward to that. that's next [ sniffling ] [ male announcer ] all stuffed up? simple relief is here. introducing robitussin® nasal relief pills. the right relief for nasal congestion...in a pill. ♪ ne from robitussin®. relief made simple. forty years ago, he wasn't worried about retirement. he'd yet to hear of mutual funds, iras, or annuities. back then, he had something more important to do. he wasn't focused on his future but fortunately, somebody else was. at usaa we provide retirement solutions for our military, veterans and their families. from investments... to life insurance... to health care options. learn more with our free usaa retirement guide. call 877-242-usaa. >> brian: quick headlines. investigators looking for millions of dollars in missing customer money from former new jersey governor jon corzine's firm. they may have found a big clue. they're requesting questions about a questionable transfer days before the company went belly up. 200 million bucks

larry sabato. it's always great to have you come in and read your crystal ball for us. to the real clear politics poll romney is on top with 25%. ron paul with 20%. they flip-flopped. last week they had ron paul on top. followed by gingrich, bachmann and perry. and last week ron paul had been on top. what does this she exactly when you look at these fluctuating numbers? what does it tell you? >> i caution people. there is going to be additional truck in tbhaights last eight days. -- there will be additional fluctuation in the last eight days. the odds are ron paul or mitt romney will come out first in iowa. it could go either way. it depend on the weather and the turnout on election night and lots of other factors. there will probably be three or four tickets out of iowa. soy want to look at the next tier. gingrich is there but he seems to be on the escalator down. who might replace him if he continues that? somebody i keep hearing is rick santorum will do better than expected. we'll see 8 days away. rick perry also has people who say he will do better than expected. so

megyn: larry sabato, thank you sir. >> thanks megyn. megyn: isn't that interesting how it's going play out so much differently this time? and we'll be ko*frg it all on fox news. >>> president obama channeling his inner teddy roosevelt tomorrow in what he calls a make or break speech for america's middle class. but is it fair to compare mr. obama's proposals to those that teddy roosevelt was pushing? lou dobbs joins us with his take. >>> a former school official in philadelphia, the superintendent, she was, is now under heavy fire after she filed for unemployment when she had just collected almost a million dollars in a contract buyout. that's taxpayers dollars, folks. her case, just ahead. >>> and country singer mindy mccreedy facing a judge after police found her hiding in a closet with her five-year-old son. could she face charges? we'll have a live report, after this break. ♪ the weather outside is frightful ♪ ♪ but the fire is so delightful ♪ nothing melts away the cold like a hot, delicious bowl of chicken noodle soup from campbell

jon: larry sabato from the university of virginia center for politics. he lights there, larry? are you working through christmas? >> we don't, believe it or not my great loyal staff here at the center for politics, right through christmas, right through new years, no alcohol on new year's eve, all the way to the iowa caucus. jon: larry we want to wish you the very best and keep all those loyal associates happy. you have a lot to cover, thanks. >> merry christmas. jenna: fox news alert we are getting new information on some deadly blasts that rocked baghdad today. at least 50 people are now confirmed dead after a series of coordinated attacks in the capitol. iraqi security forces say there were more than ten explosions across the city and over 200 people have been injured. coming up we're going to caulk to geraldo rivera who was just in that part of the world. he'll tell us what is going on in baghdad and the timing of it all. that is apparently going to get some headlinesment south korea is keeping aware reeye across the northern border as north korean as

. >> all right, well, hopefully they will work this out before january, larry sabato, thank you very egypt where a million women march is protesting the beating of a female demonstrator. >>> do you remember president bush's axis of evil? less than 15 minutes, the possible new threats ahead now that most of those original leaders are gone. >>> then riveting testimony out of philadelphia, it is really trag tragic, disabled adults were held captive for their disability checks. >>> and emotional meeting of two families now bonded in tragedy and gratitude. >>> and a year in review for the techkys. brie just unroll, wrap the brie and bake. it's so easy. now this might even impress aunt martha. pillsbury crescent wrapped brie. holiday ideas made easy. because for every two pounds you lose through diet and exercise, alli can help you lose one more by blocking some of the fat you eat. let's fight fat with alli. ♪ but my nose is still runny. [ male announcer ] truth is, dayquil doesn't treat that. really? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus fights your worst cold symptoms, plus it relieves yo

joining us for analysis and context is larry sabato.director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. we got a little taste of the interview in way axlerod says the republicans want to be obstructionists. they want this payroll tax holiday to go away because they want to hurt the president. >> obviously that is their strategy to certain degree. axlerod and the obama camp want three things. they want the republican nomination for president to go on a long time. they want it to be very, very nasty, and they want the republican house of representatives to do things that are you can popular. and if they can get those thee things they may get voters to forget how bad the economy is. alisyn: will that be effective to remind the voters look what the republicans are doing, look how they are being obstructionist. do voters want to hear what the president will accomplish or what the president will do or is it enough to say look at bad republicans? >> it's not enough, particularly if you are an incumbent president and you are resp