. >> larry sabato publicly are we an impatient lot. >> we are. good reasons. the employment is high. the economy growth is minimal. people are happy and out of work. they have reasons to be unhappy. we are impatient. we always have been. maybe it is why we accomplish as much as a society. but it also has consequences for politicians. they have to hope that people are happier when they come up for election or reelection. >> c-span2 is our most recent book. is that enough for congress to achieve big things? >> not anymore. out of the two years if you're lucky you have to with three months of serious policy-making and misleading. and the rest is been on electioneering. covering the same presence of the four year terms and senators with the six. think that is one of the changes and i have seen the memos to read over the years. at the net with many people my age would agree, in prior decades going back several decades, people in congress who would spend half a term on lesley a half a term on running again. we just seem to move back the start date for politicking ea

a political guru larry sabato on the fallout. will be many in the president's own party, larry, would will look at this and say, no, no, no, no, it is time to get out. make this a memory, now. and he is saying on the one year anniversary of the killing of bin laden, no, not now. >>guest: it clear he will stick to his timetable of withdrawal by 2014. what he is doing by this trip, the secret trip is to underline what happened a year ago which enables the united states to withdraw from afghanistan, to emphasize for the president's re-election the end of the war in iraq, as well, and these are foreign policy achievements that nationally the obama campaign and the obama presidency want to emphasize as they move toward a difficult general election which is, really, about the economy, and not about foreign policy. >>neil: but should we make or read too much, though the president has said "we are largely out," being "completely" out because it will always be a bit of secretary of defense that will strike some as, especially liberals, as

intellectual inquiry >> host: we're talking to the intercollegiate studies institute >> host: larry sabato are we impatient. >> guest: we are a very impatient people and get so rather easily. unemployment is high and the economy's growth is minimal and people are unhappy they have reason. absolutely we are impatient and have always have been maybe which is why we accomplish so much as a society but it has consequences with politicians. >> host: "pendulum swing" is the most recent book. two years. is that long enough for congress to achieve big things? >> not any more. if you are lucky you have to with three months of serious policy making then the rest is spent on the campaign with the presidents and the senate and that is the changes that i most regret to that in prior decades that you have people in congress to spend half the term bond legislating now we just seem to move back the start date earlier angry election cycle. >> host: taping this interview march 2012 no congress has finished its work for the year. the election's not until november. is the fact the congress has done its busine

>>stuart: well, larry sabato says watch out. people are quick to say the rich are getting richer. but are the poor getting richer, as well? find out what john stossel found out. ♪ i'm making my money do more. i'm consolidating my assets. i'm not paying hidden fees or high commissions. i'm making the most of my money. and seven-dollar trades are just the start. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. and i'm loving every minute of it. [ rodger riney ] at scottrade, we give you commission-free etfs, no-fee iras and more. come see why more investors are saying... i'm with scottrade. come see why more investors are saying... are you still sleeping? just wanted to check and make sure that we were on schedule. the first technology of its kind... mom and dad, i have great news. is now providing answers families need. siemens. answers. oh. let's go. from the crack, off the backboard. [ laughs ] dad! [ laughs ] whoo! oh! you're up! oh! oh! so close! now where were we? ok, this one's good for two. score! [ male announcer ] share what you love with who you love. kellogg's

but as larry sabato said, it would be happening 30 to 40 years from now.bad. >> chris: i want to ask you one question in the minute that we have left, that is to pick up on what kirsten was saying about the politics of this. the republican party is perceived as being less friendly to minorities, to hispanics, to blacks, are they going to have to change in some fundamental way? >> i think there's an assumption here in all this discussion that people are somehow completely defined by their ethnicity or race or nationality or previous nationality. i think that's wrong. i think whites are no more american or republican or conservative than others are. i think as the generations become cultureated, it takes longer than it did 100 years ago, they'll act different ways. the assumption that hispanics will act one way and asian-americans in another way is completely mistaken so i don't accept any of the assumptions. perhaps in the early -- the first generation, yes, but after that, no. as we've seen in in our previous history of east european pan european immigrati

larry sabato joins us now. always great to talk to you.ow does president obama's approval rating, 47% for the month of may compare to other incumbents running for re-election dating back to 1964? >> it's below the approval levels of presidents who won re-election handily. it's a little bit above the approval levels of presidents who were defeated for re-election. i'll tell you what it really projects, and this is based on the history of job approval numbers, it projects a very close competitive race in november, which i think is exactly right. gregg: let me put up on your screen a quote from your crystal ball, because this gives a specific projection based on the may month. based on president obama's may approval rating of 47% and the prediction line shown on figure one, which we are not going to show because it's very come phra indicate, we would expect mr. obama to receive 51.6% of the major party vote in november. these results suggest that president obama is currently a slight favorite to win a second term. how reliable is that forecas

in just a few minutes we'll talk with a political prognosticator and professor larry sabato. we'll show you more on the new polls and talk with him what they mean for mitt romney and the president as we now, as you heard carl say it, it is closing close. we're racing toward november. jon: new information on the apparent suicide of nfl superstar junior seau. they say seau died of a gunshot wound to the chest in his california home. a gun was found nearby but no note. circumstances of his death highlight a possible link between head trauma, mental illness and suicide. several nfl veterans have taken their lives in recent years. family and friends having a hard time understanding how the 43-year-old former linebacker could be gone. >> i can't really believe it. he is one of those people so inspiring and charismatic and filled with life you can't really imagine they're not there anymore. >> he was coming up to l.a. to be honored for something and he was really excited about it. and he was talking about his son going on a trip to fiji. he was very happy. there was no indication. b

larry sabato thank you sir. >> thank you so much.: there is new controversy now emerging following president obama's appearance on the view yesterday, the president giving an interesting response when he was asked to predict how the race for the white house would wind up be saying, quote, when your name is barack obama, it's always tight. we'll take a closer look at what the president may have been suggesting just ahead. plus, a young army soldier called off to the vietnam war just 30 days after mayoring his high school sweetheart. they never saw each other again. now after 42 years his widow will be there as he is today awarded the medal of honor for an amazing act of heroism. stay tuned for one of the best stories of the day. >> a neighbor telling me. i said, are you sure? i continue believe it. i never stopped loving him. sometimes it feels like yesterday i lost him. you never forget, you never forget that feeling. are you receiving a payout from a legal settlement or annuity over 10 or even 20 years? call imperial structured sett

(sot: larry sabato, university of virginia center for politics) "i dont think coffee wwuld be enough,bably a full carton oo nodoz.. //131607 "i can't imagine that they actually believe that he could accomplish all of thisswithhn the first 24 hours in office. he ould beginnthe process of doing this, but that's all." (nats: obama inauguraaion pile) cheerstraaitionally on day one... presidents are busy... buu with the inauguration... the parades... the parties.in his first full day on the job... the most significant thing president obama did was order pay freezes for white house staff. (nats) cheerspresident bush on his first full ddy one signed an executive order banning tax dollars from going to international family planning groups that promote abortion.one former aide to president nixon told cnn that white house staff couldn't find the presidential pens.it can be like the first day at school.these days... it seems booh the rooney ann obama campaigns are trying out different messages...on education... romney made the case tooa philadelphia charrerr school that smaller class sizes don't

analysis, joining us from charlottesville larry sabato. director for virginia center politics. pollster. marge i didn't. many traditional swing states favor traditional marriage. i can't imagine the president winning north carolina now, what say you? >> three important things to look at when you are looking at polling and swing states and anything else. the first is when is the data point from. >> bill: how about yesterday in north carolina? it's 61%. >> i will jump to the third thing. the third thing is it a vote driver for the presidential election? that's where i think there is a -- you will see the folks on either side already coming to the polls. they have made up their mind the strong folks pro-gay marriage and against gay marriage. there is a huge mushy middle. >> bill: ms. owe marrow you know the -- they don't no whethr romney. enough is enough. this could tilt it over. dr. sabato, here is what i don't understand politically speaking. president obama is not going to get one vote by coming out in favor of gay marriage. not one. all liberal people who were going to vote f

larry sabato, always appreciate your expertise.ted debate on capitol hill about an amendment that prohibits same-sex marriage ceremonies oh from occurring on military base is. it passed and is is now part of a defense spending bill. joining us to talk more about the measure is the person who designed it congressman steve palazzo. tell us more about the amendment and the where it now stands. >> iate to be here. a beautiful mother's day. i would like to wish my wife mother of three children happy mother's day. the amendment is clarifying preexisting federal law is the defense of march act where it defines marriage as between one man and one woman and that mill tare arery installations are federal property. being that they are federal property doma applies to military installations. there has been a lot of confusions and mixed signals sent from this administration and this amendment is going to help clarify that. >> what are you hearing from chaplains in the military about this? >> we are hearing a lot. we received a lot of letters. c

why larry sabato is saying it is really not about that number.s about the feeling it is it's about the feeling it is generateing. this is bobby. say hello bobby. hello bobby. do you know you could save hundreds on car insurance over the phone, online or at your local geico office? tell us bobby, what would you do with all those savings? hire a better ventriloquist. your lips are moving. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. >>neil: mitt romney versus president obama looking at same job spirit with different spin and that spin could decide what wins in november. larry, it is lard to spin it positively if you are a president but it is not a slam dunk spinning this all that negatively if you are romney. steady growth beats no growth. how does it factor out? >>guest: it is in the gray area. it is not good news. i cannot imagine the white house was pleased this morning when they saw the number of jobs actually added. they planned for a lot more and they hoped for a lot more, incredibly, some committeives are

larry sabato is director for the center of politics for the university of virginia. swing states, larry, are colorado, florida, iowa, nevada, new hampshire, ohio and virginia. is there a super-duper swing state among those seven that you're watching in particular? >> i would have to pick ohio, jenna, even though i'm virginia. some of my fellow virginians won't like this. ohio has been right 27 out of the past 29 elections stretching back to grover cleveland t has the best record of the 50 states the interesting thing is when a really close election the way i think november is likely to be, it is a state like ohio, maybe ohio, that will be the state to put a candidate over 270, to be the 270th electoral vote that elect as president. remember ohio did that for president bush in 2004. jenna: larry, can they, i say they, presumptive republican nominee mitt romney, focus on ohio and forget about others if they're looking to be strategic about victory in november? >> no. they have to worry about all 85 electoral votes in those seven states. they have to worry about shoring

larry sabato with his crystal ball. let's move on to wisconsin.r, the governor in the recall election june 5. the same gay he faced 18 -- guy he faced 18 months ago, tom barrett, the mayor of milwaukee. but the interesting thing is he was not a union backed guy. how do you see this shaking out? >> well, as you know, it's a rematch. here we go, a year and a half after the first election, we're having another election. it's the permanent campaign. i tend to think -- this is going to be close and highly competitive, but if you force the crystal ball to bet, i would bet that walker would continue as governor. recall is a very drastic action and it hasn't succeeded but a few times in all of american history. so generally you bet on the incumbent in a situation like this. >> gretchen: all right. you made lot of bold predictions today. we'll see how they pan out come november. larry, always great to discuss things with you. thanks so much. >> thanks, gretchen. >> gretchen: huge secret in store for the season final d of "gray's anatomy." dr. bailey here l

larry sabato, director of center for politics at university of virginia.eliver every week with your crystal ball. this conclusion caught my attention when it comes to the senate. you say might be so close when it comes to the senate next year a tie-breaking vote may be necessary by whoever the vice president might be. why do you think that could happen? >> well, when you look at the races, jenna, and you look at them one by one and you also judge the races on basis of which presidential candidate will carry that state, it is easy to see how might, might end up as 50-50. we still give slight edge to republicans to control the senate but we wouldn't be shocked, wouldn't be surprised if it ended up the way it did after the 2000 election when vice president cheney broke ties in the senate for five months before senator jeffords from vermont switched sides an converted from republican to democratic. jenna: what was effect of that, having vice president as a tiebreaker? >> well obviously they tried to avoid tie votes whenever possible and there weren't many of t

larry sabato, always great to think with you.n the great american grill-off. first let's check in with hemmer for what's on at the top of the hour. you're jealous, aren't you? >> indeed i am. i'll take the strawberry or chocolate. good morning. a fiscal cliff, that's where we're headed if congress does not act. does that sound familiar? the leader of the american catholic church not backing down. we'll explain that today. could a little known law pushed by democrats 20 years ago sink health care? your 401(k) could be headed for a tumble. we'll explain that when martha and i see you in about ten minutes on "america's newsroom" [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. ♪ ha ha! dude you don't understand, this is my dad's car. look at the car! my dad's gonna kill me dude... [ male announcer ] the security of a 2012 iihs top safety pick. the volkswagen passat. that's the power of german engineering. right now lease the 2012 passat for $209 a month. >> steve: time to

analysis, joining us from charlottesville larry sabato. director for virginia center politics. pollster. marge i didn't. many traditional swing states favor traditional marriage. i can't imagine the president winning north carolina now, what say you? >> three important things to look at when you are looking at polling and swing states and anything else. the first is when is the data point from. >> bill: how about yesterday in north carolina? it's 61%. >> i will jump to the third thing. the third thing is it a vote driver for the presidential election? that's where i think there is a -- you will see the folks on either side already coming to the polls. they have made up their mind the strong folks pro-gay marriage and against gay marriage. there is a huge mushy middle. >> bill: ms. owe marrow you know the -- they don't no whethr romney. enough is enough. this could tilt it over. dr. sabato, here is what i don't understand politically speaking. president obama is not going to get one vote by coming out in favor of gay marriage. not one. all liberal people who were going to vote f

political maestro larry sabato says it is a major risk. lou do you see it? >>guest: on north carolina, it is more than a risk. it is clearly leaning to romney. what happened on gay marriage made it more in romney's camp. so he capitalized on that by just going to north carolina although he mainly talked about the economy. >>neil: do you think this latest poll, the latest snapshot we have and as you always remind me, remember, november is a long way off. last time i checked this is may so it can change. but that is an alarming response. >>guest: that is a big margin for romney. i would say the clear politics average, i love real clear politics and urge people to look what they have, their average is a tie, 46. >>neil: that averages the polls. >>guest: yes, an average. it is a close competitive race and i can say this were, if president obama is at 43 or 45 or 46 in october he is going to lose because the undecided go disproportionately against the incull bent. but we are a long way from october. we don't know. >>neil: do you read anything that this is a dispa

why larry sabato is saying it is really not about that number.s about the feeling it is it's about the feeling it is generateing. this is bobby. say hello bobby. hello bobby. do you know you could save hundreds on car insurance over the phone, online or at your local geico office? tell us bobby, what would you do with all those savings? hire a better ventriloquist. your lips are moving. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. >> announcer: meet mary. she loves to shop online with her debit card, and so does bill, an identity thief who stole mary's identity, took over her bank accounts and stole her hard-earned money. now meet jack. enough to enjoy retirement.saved angie, the waitress at jack's favorite diner, is also enjoying his retirement. with just a little information, she's opened up a credit line, draining the equity in jack's home. unfortunately, millions of americans just like you learn all it may take is a little misplaced information to wreak havoc on your life. this is identity theft, and no one

that's why we call larry sabato up and drag him out of bed so early there at the university of virginiary much for dropping by today. >> thank you so much, steve. >> see you next time. >> all right, it's about 10 minutes before the top of the hour. can't put down your cell phone? check it up to 40 times a day, some people do. is that normal or is that nuts? hey, dr. keith, you're on tv. we'll tell you folks out there whether or not that's normal or nuts. it's kind of nuts that he's not really talking to anybody. first on this date in 1983, david bowie had the number one song "let's dance." wake up! that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm. fohalf the calories plus vgie nutrition. could've had a v8. >> so the answer to the question of the day. of course, it was pierce brosnan, that handsome guy. the winner is michael griffiths in missouri. congratulations. >> ever asked yourself the question, am i normal or nuts? >> every day. >> it's a question we all ask ourselves once and a while and a question we ask dr. keith ablow every week. >> like now. joining us right now to answer the e-mails f

larry sabato said this is a problem for her. effort to define herself in a voter friendly way. this is a quote from larry, non-partisan guy, this what is happens when candidates don't tell the truth. >> having a great grandparent who may or may not have been. megyn: great, great great. >> being 1/32 of some racial group is not a qualification it, an accident. this is an amusing story. obviously her campaign is blowing up over this. her remark about all indians have high cheekbones. they also like feathers it's offensive and dumb. the system rewards people based on their dna which is inherently unfair. it was unfair under segregation and it, unfair now. she did gain material advantage by lie being her ethnic background. >> harvard has been clear that she did not gain any material advantage. at the end of the day she won the teaching award at harvard two years in a row. she won teaching awards at the university of pennsylvania, the university of michigan. the. to question this woman on this qualifications is something that does ap

larry sabato from the university of virginia thinks that the president is facing a lot of headwinds in north carolina. here is what he told me just moments ago. >> i think the democrats find themselves in a difficult corner in in north carolina. they're likely to lose the governor's race. they're going to lose some house seats in november and it doesn't suggest to me that president obama's going to be able to repeat and carry the north carolina again this fall. >> reporter: now don't forget that the democratic national convention is in the city of charlotte in north carolina. when it comes to same sex marriage what we see in north carolina, patti ann may be the reason why president obama has not staked out a solid position. he says his position is quote, evolving but made that much more difficult by what vice president biden and education secretary arne duncan said yesterday, fully in support of same sex marriage. patti ann: john roberts, thank you very much. reporting live from atlanta. >> seven past the hour. president responding to north carolina saying he is disappointed with the d

as larry sabato told us yesterday, those four votes are really important. it could go either way in november. and if this election is as close as some predict, those four votes can really make a difference. you can't just turn your nose at new hampshire, carl cameron. four votes still matter. >> reporter: go granite state. hey, jenna. romney actually spent the whole week bashing the president for his spending agenda and he will go to the sawyer bridge in hillsborough, new hampshire today. it is historic site. it is a bridge to know where. doesn't go anywhere. obama campaign argument and mr. romney will make argument it is waste of stimulus money. at the same time he is out with his first positive ad. it is something of a road map of the states he has to win for victory. it will play in iowa, north carolina, virginia and elsewhere. it is all positive talking about what he would do as soon as he is inaugurated. listen. >> day one. president romney immediately aproves the keystone pipeline, creating thousands of jobs that obama blocked. president romney introd

. >> krystal ball, and larry sabato, thank you. >>> we'll hear vice president joe biden's comments on marriage, coming up. >>> >>> a hollywood mystery, a real-life story of a missing movie executive. police in los angeles are looking for the 20 century fox employee who disappeared four days ago. and now gavin smith's family is making a public plea for help. >> the mystery began wednesday morning. when movie executive gavin smith didn't show up for work. >> it's so out of character for gavin to just be off the grid. >> chris aaronson is his boss at 20th currentry fox for smith has worked for 18 years. >> he's one of our key players. >> he worked at a office in kalabasas, he managed theaters in oklahoma city. >> he was last seen tuesday and also missing, his black mercedes, similar to this one. >> he's never done anything like this before. >> 57 years old, a married father of three with a successful job. smith's family says they have no idea why he would disappear. his son, a basketball player, at the university of southern california, tweeted, please help me find my dad gavin smith. mo

larry sabato, a political science director. dr. sabato, welcome back.ower's days, 1952, i like ike. did that work? >> yes, i remember those times well, brian. look, it worked because the slogan, i like ike, put the emphasis on eyesen eisenhower's broad smile and his resume. he was supreme commander in world war ii. why the emphasis on personality? because it was the new deal era. no republican had been elected president since 1928. that was a great slogan that kind of gave democrats and independent has reason to vote republican and break that string of democrats. >> brian: many people feared he would come in examine blow up the new deal and he didn't. what didn't work? jimmy carter said, this is his. why not the best? >> yeah, that came from his autobiography, which was actually entitled "why not the best." it seemed braggarty. they ran on leaders for change. i don't think that really caught on either. he won because he wasn't richard nixon. he wasn't gerald ford and he wasn't responsible for watergate. had nothing to do with his slogan. >> brian: his o

larry saab bo with -- sabato with his crystal ball, have he -- why he says poll numbers are one of three for who will win the white house. >> and mitt mitt romney's experience at bain capital, how does romney capitalize on those attacks? >> and a major breakthrough in treating an ailing heart by using your skin cells. a really interesting report. so we'll talk more about that. bill: sigell, stick around, coming after you! thank you jenna. >>> space agencys from around the globe, meeting in washington, talking about the next big mission to the final frontier and that can mean taking giant steps forward on the moon. with hotwire's low prices, we can afford to take an extra trip this year. first boston... then san francisco. hotwire checks the competitions' rates every day so they can guarantee their low prices. so our hotels re half price. ♪ h-o-t-w-i-r-e... ♪ hotwire.com martha: well, it's that time of year, folks, a high school principal is now apologizing for overreacting to a senior prank. dozens of students rode their bikes about 3 miles to school yesterday and they caused a massive t