larry sabato. i i've got some fair values here. we've talked about jindal.awlenty 6.5% chance, mitch daniels, of.5% chance and chris christie, 6.8% chance, what do you make of christie off the top of your head, larry? >> you know, look, larry, chris christie should be running for president, as a vice presidential candidate, i think he would be on the front page probably two or three times as often as mitt romney, which is exactly what you don't want. so, no, i don't think he's an ideal vp candidate, and he can't carry new jersey. this is about the electoral college. it's amazing how fee people can keep their focus on getting to 270. portman is worth 18 electoral votes. john thune? three votes in south dakota that's automatically republican? i mean, come on. >> last one, bob costa, the quote on tim pawlenty, 6.5% chance of victory looks fairly valued to me. what do you make of tim pawlenty? independents pawlenty has run a presidential campaign this cycle, if romney is looking for a safe pick, t-paw is right there. he brings you that competent from the upper m

and larry sabato on if governor romney is getting a boost. and now, chad from the investment firm. what was going on here? >>guest: you have a perfect cocktail, european malaise in the third round of that. and you have economic numbers across the globe and slowing down. and that in itself is what has kicked off the downward trend here in the equity prices and instability in the credit markets. >>neil: a lot of people say markets run to extremes and this is way overdone, and this is not typical, that they are ringing their hands prematurely. what do you say? >>guest: well, we will be stuck in trading during the next 18 months, so this is very typical. >>neil: you are talking about the s&p and that is close to a correction. what do you make of that? >>guest: the united states economy is slowly moving failure at 1.5 percent g.d.p. rate and you have this tremendous amount of instability particularly on european side. we are still not early innings of that malaise and that has to play out. so what you should expect to see over the coming months or weeks i should say, as the credit marke

now, larry sabato who says this is awful news for the president. time is awasting. larry, we live when we go to vote, what we were seeing a few months prior. so, there is not were time to change the perception the economy is stuck in the mud. right? >>guest: very little time. look, a great moment to be a challenger to an incumbent president. governor romney basically has to sit there, reinforce his team "time for a change," especially on the economy. if the economy continues to be this anemic until we get to the general election, the conditions are there for an upset. >>neil: do you think the argument that ronald reagan used against jimmy carter, are you better off than you were four years ago, works here in because depending on your perspective, and, wreck the meltdown and all of that, that could be a mixed bag for a lot folks. it is not that black and white, or do you disagree? >>guest: no, because obviously the economic downturn started under bush, it started in 2007 and the economic collapse in 2008. that is why i use the slogan, it's time for a change. that is

jon: larry sabato from university of virginia. larry, thank you.enna: there is a big question of what is next for john edwards. he's no longer facing the possibility of 30 years in prison at least for now after the jurors acquitted him on one count and the judge declared a mistrial on all the others. what are the chances that prosecutors will try and retry this case? that is a big question today. we will talk more about it with judge alex next. we are watching the dow take a very steep dive after weak numbers on jobs and a tough month in may. lots of 401ks taking a hit today. more on that coming up. graduation, huh ? crazy, right ? well, with this droid razr by motorola on verizon 4g lte, you guys can stay in touch. ( grunts ) cool. you can video call on skype... send photos. yeah, okay. yeah, let's do it. get $100 off any motorola 4g lte smartphone, like the droid 4 now just $99.99. verizon. jenna: today john edwards is a free man following yesterday's verdict in the corruption trial, this after deliberating for nine days, jurors acquitting him on

larry sabato. >> only june, jon. only june. jon: i like to push you anyway. thanks, larry. >> thank you. jenna: the white house under fire at this hour as lawmakers push for a new investigation into a string of intelligence leaks. we've heard the debate back and forth. what does this mean for us, the american people? we have two guests coming up. one who worked on the inside when leaks happened and one who worked to report on those leaks when they did. that is just ahead. jon: also, opening arguments in the child sex abuse trial of former penn state assistant football coach jerry sandusky. we're live outside the courthouse with interesting details just ahead. on's the way. more people do that, security would be like -- there's no charge for the bag. thanks. i know a quiet little place where we can get some work done. there's a three-prong plug. i have club passes. [ male announcer ] get the mileage card with special perks on united, like a free checked bag, united club passes, and priority boarding. thanks. ♪ okay. what's your secret? [ male announcer ] the un

larry sabato is the director of center for politics at the university of virginia. larry, you don't get to see a gubernatorial recall election very often. what are you watching for in wisconsin today? >> this is only the third one, jon. we political junkies are getting a big fix tonight. obviously everyone knows that this is an off, off-year race in the sense that it's in june and yet there's going to be a giant turnout. i think both democrats and republicans will show up in large numbers but the crystal ball to be honest has had this leaning or likely walker for months. we have never had it in the toss upcategory. we think that most of the key factors in the race favor walker. so we'll be very surprised if he isn't confirmed in office. jon: this is a rerun of the gubernatorial election from two years ago and from what i can tell, based on the polling, it hasn't moved all that much. the polling shows that if walker wins his margin of victory likely to be about the same as it was a couple years ago. >> it could very easily be a repeat, you know. it is a retread electi

and if these are the president's friends, no wonder larry sabato is asking who needs enemy enemies. what is happening? >>guest: there are a lot of nervous nellies and there were, four years ago at this time. they didn't think obama could win. but, part of it, that is the way the economy is going, things are not the way the obama people thought they were going to be for the general election. it is not presenting a rosy picture for democrats running for the house and senate and other offices, and they are very, very concerned. >>neil: does the president get the enormity to say the private sector doing fine? i mean, it disheartens the most loyal allies, doesn't it? >>guest: i am sure. look, the troops want to know that the guy if charge and his team understand how difficult the campaign is going to be. they say they do, the chicago team does. but do they believe it? but you want to know the guy at the top understands this is going to an very difficult ross and that he is not simply whistling and singing "don't worry, be happy." that is the wrong song for this year. >>neil: a lot of the

rick: larry sabato is the director of center for politics at the university of virginia. d to see you, larry. thanks so much. >> thank you, rick. jenna: hope larry gets vacation time ahead of that. once august hits it will be all the time. rick: we all will be. jenna: that's right. what is left from japan's devastating earthquake and tsunami is washing up on our shores. what could be a curiosity for some is a real headache for local governments stuck with trying to clean it up. who should pay for the cleanup? a debate over the debris coming up. >>> china advancing in space while america appears to be stepping back at least from the shuttle program. are we being left in the space dust? we'll ask astronaut tom jones next. rick: right now as the u.s. shuttle program heads for the history books china's space plans are making fresh headlines the latest news, a successful e-mail sent from ground control to three chinese astronauts taking part in the country's first manned space docking. among the crew, china's first female astronaut. could this be the start of a space race betwe

larry sabato the director for center of politics from the university of virginia. hear all the time, larry, pick someone vanilla. someone that won't shake the boat too much. why is that a myth? >> it is a myth that it always applies. it may be right for mitt romney but there are plenty of vice presidential candidates who weren't at all boring in both parties. you have to apply the myths to particular years. that myth may apply to romney but doesn't apply generally. jenna: what about this myth, the big swing state selection myth. everybody is in ohio so that name portman comes up. being a lawmaker from ohio. what about that strategy, pick someone from a swing state that will help you out? >> well, portman would help romney, there is no question about it. but if you operate on the theory that romney does want to pick a vanilla candidate but somebody who is very well-qualified as portman is, he could pick senator john thune from the small state of south dakota. he could pick former governor tim pawlenty. minnesota is unlikely to go republican but pawlenty would ad som

plus denise richards, larry sabato and elizabeth banks.hour. ♪ [ instrumental ] [ boy ] i used to hate eating healthy stuff. but badger likes it, so i do too. i used to have bad dreams, but not anymore. [ barks ] i used to be scared of the basement. but when badger's with me, it's not so bad. [ barking ] [ announcer ] we know how important your dog is to your whole family. so help keep him strong and healthy with purina dog chow. because you're not just a family. you're a dog family. i've been fortunate to win on golf's biggest stages. but when joint pain and stiffness from psoriatic arthritis hit, even the smallest things became difficult. i finally understood what serious joint pain is like. i talked to my rheumatologist and he prescribed enbrel. enbrel can help relieve pain, stiffness, and stop joint damage. because enbrel, etanercept, suppresses your immune system, it may lower your ability to fight infections. serious, sometimes fatal events including infections, tuberculosis, lymphoma, other cancers, and nervous system and blood diso

>>neil: governor romney, we just heard larry sabato said, could have the running mate well before theion. it does not look it will be rubio but who knows. what do you make of that? go? bad idea? >>guest: i thought i would throw out, it is okay, but --. >>neil: would you accept secretary position? >>guest: i would have to think hard about treasury. >>shepard: you mentioned secretary of state? >>guest: defense. defense. dense. next to the secretary of state, not to the presidency, is the most challenging. >>neil: republicans slough that up. but the business folks --. >>guest: my point is, you need a strong leader, strong decisionmaker in the defense because our military has been aikened and you need someone who is not afraid --. >>neil: i understand that. but you would entertain it? >>guest: i would entertain it. >>neil: no one has asked now vice president? >>guest: no, no, no. >>neil: are you spried -- surprised no one has talked to rubio? >>guest: governor romney would be very disciplined in the process, that is what helped to make him successful. >>neil: conservatives are getting mad

when you talk to people like larry sabato they say the president has little control over europe. >> not it a big risk, can he do almost nothing about it this is one of those difficult situations for a president where he just has to sit and hope for a change. >> and you look, put that on top of the fact that after last friday wants weak jobs report, the economy still is shaky here. it's shown in the latest fox poll out tonight. look at these numbers. right now only 40% of the american people say we are in a recession. down big time from april of 2010. the number of people who think we are in a downturn is up to 42%. that's up pretty big from april of 2010. whether you call it recession or downturn, still a lot of people out there who don't feel like it's turned around at least for them, shep. >> shepard: we talked about the president and the lack of power over the situation in europe. he has more control here. >> he does. that's a mixed bag. because with europe, the president keeps saying i don't handle that those are the other leaders. we are trying to work with them. here the incumbent

>>neil: and they did, larry sabato says the president actions have made wisconsin more vulnerable than ever. did he compound the sin with that excuse today? >>guest: well, no question. look, actually, the translation of what president obama said or at least what he was thinking was "we knew mayor barrett would lose and we don't want any part of it, it was radioactive." after all they could have set up a couple of fundraisers in milwaukee where this is plenty of money, not to mention madison. >>neil: the president might have honestly calculated, look, the same approval rating at scott walker and there are a lot of independents in wisconsin and why want to annoy or ruffle their feathers and i am still leading in the polls. i guess he cannot be that to the point, but why jinx it, so he tweeted the support to the mayor the night before which added insult to injury and now this comment, after the fact, adding still more insult to injury. >>guest: literally, he lifted one finger for mayor barrett, the finger he tweets with. that was too little too late and it was very little, at the least yo

week before the president is set to address latino conference in orlando, the political maestro larry sabato. it could be coincidence. >>guest: well, i like janet napolitano but i have to disagree. this is very political. look, this is certainly about the policy but it is also about politics. that shocks you, neil, i know, 145 days from the election when the hispanic vote is absolutely critical to president obama's re-election. remember, he got 67 percent of hispanics in 2008 to john mccain's 31 percent, he won by 36 percent, and critical in nevada, and colorado, and new mexico. here is the career point: this november his pangs will be, again, between 9 percent and 10 percent of the total votes one in ten voters, and is one of the only categories of voters where president obama is doing as well or better than he did in 2008. this decision reinforces his strength with spanish and latino voters. >>neil: you mentioned politics and we got out the reaction, now, from governor romney, a few minutes ago. >> i believe the status of young people who come here through no fault their own is an importan

. >> professor larry sabato. always great to have you on the program.nks. >> thank you, country. >>> the white house says congress secretary john brison is taking a medical leave of absence. the 68-year-old was involved in two minor car accidents in the l.a. area over the weekend. a spokesperson later said he had had a seizure, something brison had never experienced before. the commerce secretary was cited for felony hit and run, although never booked. ♪ the one and only, cheerios still have doubts about taking aspirin for tough pain? listen to what mvp justin verlander thinks about it. i would say the source of most of my muscle pain would be in my shoulder. my trainer kevin rand recommended it to me. i was kind of skeptical at first, but i tested it out, and bayer advanced aspirin relieved my pain fast. feeling 100% every start, every fifth day, i think definitely gives me a little bit of an edge. but don't take his word for it. put bayer advanced aspirin to the test for yourself at fastreliefchallenge.com put bayer advanced aspirin to the test for yo

larry sabato. how bad has this last week or so been? >> really bad.ern president. it's just been one darn thing right after the other. some, he's had control over, some he hasn't had control over. but it doesn't matter, these things add up over time. you know, we always look to the atmospherics and what are they here? the atmospherics here are bad economy, people in a sour mood, the electorate surgically. -- surly. as long as you have those, all of these little things matter. they add up. they cause people to reconsider their original choice in 2008 or motivate the republican base to enthusiastically work and turn out. >> brian: what i don't understand is and with the reasons behind it, do you think the reasoning behind all those democrats going against the party, his own car czar has come out against certain things of his policies, in massachusetts, one saying i'm not happy with the bain capitol attacks and james carville saying he has to change tactics. what's behind this? >> everybody reads the polls. everybody reads the same polls and look, it's a

larry sabato u a a pleasure.ing to get out our bowling shoes and go bowling on the plaza in just a moment right there. but right now, let's check in with bill hem who are probably has a bowling shirt or two in that closet. >> no gutter ball, steve. good morning to you. big show this morning. ed rollins says this is terrible news for the president. he's going to explain all that in a moment. darryl issa, does he finally is the smoking gun in fast and furious? we'll talk to him live about that. herman cain has a new job. he stops by, and why so many leaks on national intel. is that smart? martha and i will see you in ten minutes on "america's newsroom," top of the hour begins with back pain and a choice. take advil, and maybe have to take up to four in a day. or take aleve, which can relieve pain all day with just two pills. good eye. to provida better benefits package... oahhh! [ male announcer ] it made a big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male

and professor larry sabato, political analyst.nk you for joining us today from virginia. >> good morning, steve. >> steve: it's not just the economy, stupid. although that's the number one predictor this year. who can handle it? there is other things. for instance, health care is probably going to have a big impact on who is elected, right? >> that's absolutely correct. look, here is the surprise on health care. whoever loses the court case will end up getting a boost politically. so if the individual man it is date is struck down, democrats are going to be angry, that motivates them, gets more out to the polls. if obamacare is upheld, republicans are going to be angry. enthuses them, they see the only way to change obamacare is win the white house, keep the house, win the senate. boom, more of them show up in november. it's exactly the opposite of what you might think. but then this is politics. things are always upside down. >> steve: absolutely. and then speaking of politics, on friday afternoon, the president changes his polic

larry sabato, thank you. >>> it is reaching the end of the line, but lawmakers say they have reachedto keep student loan interest from doubling. allison kosik joins us. what is at stake? >> well, once it comes time to pay back the loans that are doubled, it is a lot of money. lawmakers have until sunday. the interest that is 3.4% currently are going to jump to 6.8%, and when the students take ten years to pay off the loans, it is going to make a huge difference for them. this is going to effect 7 million more students who take out loans for the next year. this is a bitter fight between the democrats and the republicans because of lots of questions of how the government can continue to absorb the cost for subsidizing these loans, and the government at this point needs to raise almost $6 billion just to support the loans. how the raise the money is a tough compromise. the senate says they have a deal, and the house still needs to give the thumb's up, and if it is approved, it will buy some time at least a year that the rates will stay 3.4% until june 30th next year. don? >> that is a l