larry sabato is looking into his crystal ball. of course, is the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. no surprise that president obama and governor romney are in those three states today, colorado, florida and virginia. let's take a look first at florida. you say mitt romney cannot win this election unless he wins florida. why is that? >> if you look at the electoral college additions and subtractions, jon, i just don't see any way for him to get over 270. and i don't think his camp sees any way for him to get over 270 without winning florida. you know, jon, despite the current polls my gut feeling is that in the end romney will win florida. it may not be worth much, although as i get older my gut is expanding, there's more substance to my gut feelings. [laughter] but i do think romney in the end will probably have the edge in florida. jon: all right. florida you say likely romney. north carolina is a state that president obama won the last time, right? >> yes. and democrats just insist that they can

and larry sabato on why mitt romney need not fear and why president obama should. we begin with rick. what is the latest? rick: storm is not that strong just yet. do not let that fool you. it will get strong. right now it is having a lard time getting its act together at 165 miles south of puerto rico, all indications and the models agreeing it will pull off to the west, but, subtle differences make a big difference in how strong the storm gets. a lot of interaction with land across hispaniola and over to cuba and then to the eastern gulf, it will spend time over water so it will have more time to strengthen but we have to get there. so we will talk tuesday into wednesday. look at the official track. moving across haiti, where people are still living in tents and maybe a hurricane around the keys. tampa, ultimately, you will be fine. you will have a lot of wind and rain but we will not talk about a storm subject or direct impact from the hurricane. head in toward the panhandle, toward mississippi, alabama, and, possibly, even louisiana, still, we will be watching t

larry sabato looks into his crystal ball.re you receiving a payout from a legal settlement or annuity over 10 or even 20 years? call imperial structured settlements. the experts at imperial can convert your long-term payout into a lump sum of cash today. >> right now police looking for the suspects behind a hit and run in arizona. take a look at this. 26-year-old stephen bright, he was struck by this truck while he and his brother were out for walk in the that i could. now, we're told that two teenager girls pulled alongside the brothers and threw water balloons at them before speeding off. but in the process they hit stephen, as you just saw. he sustained significant injuries to his hand and his torso. investigators hope that anyone in the chandler area with information contacts them. jon: fox news is america's election headquarters. 75 days now til election day, only four days before republicans kick off their national convention in tampa, florida. right now preparations are underway in the host city which also is in the pa

jon: larry sabato, looking into the crystal ball there at the university of virginia. larry, thanks very much. jenna: right now there's some new talk, about, well, what is potentially the biggest investment any of us will ever make in this country, our home. some real estate watchers saying housing has really turned around but could any talk of a recovery right now actually be a little overblown? we're going to dig a little deeper into that. >>> also this political ad you've seen it, featuring this man's story triggering a fierce outcry from the romney campaign and even some democrats. is it just changing the conversation as larry sabato just said away from the economy? is there something in this that we need to pay attention to what it means for 2012? a fair and balanced debate coming up. are you receiving a payout from a legal settlement or annuity over 10 or even 20 years? call imperial structured settlements. the experts at imperial can convert your long-term payout into a lump sum of cash today. @ by what's getting done. measure commitment the twenty billion doars

jon: all right, larry sabato from the university of virginia gazing into the crystal ball there. o talk to you on a thursday. larry, thanks very much. >> thanks, jon. jenna: well, next we're going to turn to syria. syria's regime launching a bloody attack on a neighborhood held by rebels resulting in dozens of civilian casualties. our very own steve harrigan was in the battle zone. he's going to tell us all about that coming up next. >>> plus, a new fight over illegal immigrants, arizona's governor issuing new orders to fight federal plan. we're going to explain ahead. i was teaching a martial arts class and having a heart attack. my brother doesn't look like heart attack patient. i'm on a bayer aspirin regimen. [ male announcer ] be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. i'm a fighter and now i don't have that fear. right? get. out. exactly! really?! [ mom ] what? shut the front door. right? woop-woop! franklin delano! [ male announcer ] there's oreo creme under that fudge! oreo fudge cremes. now in two new flavors. yeah, and i took on all the bigger, to

that was larry sabato in the nine o'clock hour reacting to vice-president biden's latest gaffe.e into "varney & company" each weekday morning, 9:20 when we start. to the big board, no reactions on the cbo projection of a slower economy, if we go over the fiscal cliff. no reaction to the very small pickup in existing home sales, none at all. we're still down 21 on low volume. look at gold. holding close to 1650 an ounce, not much change, but close to 1650. as to the price of oil. close to $97 a barrel and that means that gas prices should continue to climb. and the national average now at 3.71, that's regular, and look at diesel, we now hit a national average of $4 per gallon. nicole, williams-sonoma still a winner. why and how good is it? >> beat and raise. that's what they do, they beat the street and raise the forecast and doing it and beating it and this is why you're seeing stock at a new high, it's at 10 1/4% on the day and see the major market averages moving 1/10 of a percent. and do they come out and you noted they sell the spatulas, that are $25, aen folks are going in

larry sabato from the university of virginia, we didn't see you sweat today.ile, straight ahead, this soccer star saved the olympics some say. now we're learning her coach almost benched her from the last game. gold medalist hope solo joins us as she bolts into the studio the good morning. come on over here. hope, come on over here. hey, greg jarrett, look who is here to take a look at what you have coming up in 11 minutes. it's hope solo. >> you are one lucky guy, steve. >> steve: indeed, thank you very much. >> coming up, top of the hour, governor mitt romney unloading on the obama-biden ticket, a changing campaign dynamics. we'll also be talking with u.s. senator ron johnson. how medicare may shape who wins in november. and two federal agencies hit with scandals over lewd conduct and the other parting on the taxpayer dime. that's your money. we'll have all of that at the top of the hour. we'll see you then it's time to live... wider awake. only the beautyrest recharge sleep system combines the comfort of aircool memory foam layered on top of beautyrest pock

larry sabato. did anybody see this? >> it's about time to be entertained. >> absolutely unlike anything i could have expected and completely blew my expectations out of the water. >> so real and funny it kills me. >> neil: all on the bad screen and they know something big is on the way. i'm not talking about my waist size. i'm talking about convention coverage. we are going to be everywhere for this starting with the rnc a week from today, august 27th. we're back at it live on 8:00 p.m. on fox business network. it won't be long before the debates are here and we are each and every single one of them. we have multiple passes and ready to go. join us for the best coverage on the planet. in the meantime, what a zuck. like mark zucker boo'd -- zuckerberg. last week, paul ryan is moving into big worry and much big are target. [ male announcer ] introducing zzzquil sleep-aid. it's not for colds, it's not for pain, it's just for sleep. because sleep is a beautiful thing. ♪ zzzquil, the non-habit forming sleep-aid from the make

larry sabato, thank you very much. jenna: maybe we should call him doctor larry sabato. there you go. we are tracking tropical storm isaac. likely to impact oklahoma and a few other states. a little bit further north, the big question now is how strong is either going to be when it actually gets us most places. janice dean is live with more. reporter: the good news is i think should be depression the next advisory. have i mentioned that we have other activity in the limit as well? we have hurricane kirk, and this is tropical storm number 12, it looks it's going to become tropical storm or hurricane leslie. we don't think that leslie or kirk will come knocking on the u.s. tour. which is just great. let's just talk about isaac. not done with the storm by any stretch of imagination. we are still dealing with the possibilities for flooding, very gusty winds and tornadoes. we have had many, many tornado reports in parts of mississippi today. we see that really strong band coming through the gulf of mexico. through mobile, alabama, and this one south of meridian, mississippi.

larry sabato is with us. good to see you, professor. what do you make of that number? 74%, 75%. >> it's because of the conditions this year as much as anything else. the republicans smell victory in 2012 and they didn't smell it in 2008. as you noted i think paul ryan has head a big difference for romney. bill: the unemployment 8:plus percent. those are the reality and the head winds that are incumbent president obama is running into. >> the blows domestic product that is only growing at 1.5%. even people who aren't touched by unemployment are touched by slow economic growth. those conditions make a president vulnerable. i think we are in one of those periods again. bail * that's barely a crawl when you are trying to get out of a hole. mention paul ryan. 71% already now -- this is before his big speech wednesday night. 71% of this poll of republicans consider paul ryan to be popular. what explains that? >> they agree with him on the budget, they have gotten to know him over the years, and they simply agree with his positions on the debt, on the budget and fiscal issues

larry sabato who teaches politics at the university there. where am i going wrong, dr. sabato? >> well, bill, there is no question that there is a will the of bias in the media. there is no question that by a very wide margin the key editors and reporters and producers vote for democratic candidates. but i think you exaggerate the impact they have on the quote undecided voters. number one, there aren't that many undecided voters in a year like this. you know, i would argue, bill, that about 95% of the people who will actually show up in november have already decided for whom they will vote. >> 12% seems to be the number we are seeing in the weekly polling. 12 hers remain undecided. as bernie goldberg says those people shouldn't be allowed to vote because if you don't know the difference is so stark between the president and mitt romney, if you don't know by now, goldberg doesn't want you to be able to vote. all right you? are too dumb. but it's about 12% i agree with dr. sabato in the sense that there aren't going to be as many undecides this time around but those who are immer

larry sabato, what do you make if this drags on and on? >>guest: well, i have a different feeling, neil, i think the american public can walk and chew gum at the same time. they can absorb the impact of a hurricane. they know the conventions are very important. there are only two of them. one of these two men will be president. i think it will have less impact and people believe that today and certainly by november. >>neil: republicans are again said to be in a box on mother nature and they will look clueless and out of town. does that hold water? >> no, people can separate the functions of the convention to the response of a hurricane. remember, four years ago, john mccain lost to a hurricane and got six-point bounce. it was success will convince. >>neil: but that was a limited storm. >>guest: a one day event. >>neil: this could hang for a while. so is there something planned for this? >> you have to address the concerns. and you have to help in any way you can. people are used to looking at the news and they will see five, six, ten, 15 m

larry sabato taking a little time off from his summer vacation.re "fox & friends" live from new york two minutes from right now [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's anothereason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. >> gretchen: coming up tomorrow, we'll have actress bo derek here and special co-host deaerator res because i will be on vacation. >> brian: we'll get instant olympic coverage. >> steve: brian used to work with her on a show on the channel. >> brian: yes. i forgot the name of it. >> steve: we'll see you tomorrow, everybody. good morning. width week and the tea party struck again. one-time long shot scores a stunning victory in the lone star state of texas. [cheers a

larry sabato taking a little time off from his summer vacation.re "fox & friends" live from new york two minutes from right now [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's anothereason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. >> gretchen: coming up tomorrow, we'll have actress bo derek here and special co-host

and now larry sabato, how will it play out? important, important numbers. time is running out if rebound is hoping to see a number below 8 percent unemployment before the election. >>guest: you just put your finger on it, the white house has been expecting and, now, hoping for, the jobless rate to go down below 8 percent. cynics nice say, well, it is planned for the friday before the tuesday election. that's the final jobs report. but to this point, there is really in indication or not much indication that is going to happen. when you have an uptick in the jobs numbers at midsummer, as you said, there are only three reports left. so, you have to go back to franklin roosevelt to find a president who has been re-elected with jobs numbers, unemployment numbers, this high. ing it has been 8 percent or higher for president obama's entire term. >> it is dealer, larry, that governor romney will stay on the jobless numbers, he will say on the "you didn't build that message," regarding the economy. what do you think president obama will do? what should he do? what i

larry sabato is here to provide clarity. the president, ahead by nine, with a weak economy. why is he ahead by nine? >>guest: i don't believe he is ahead by nine. it is in the just your poll. i'm not just criticizing your poll. there have been others that have it 7 to 9 the past couple of days. truth be told, these are summer polls. they are preselection of the v.p. candidate, they are pre-convention and prefocus of the general electorate that starts after the conventions happen. so, is the election all about the economy? no, strike the word "all," but it will be primarily about the economy. and that, so far, is an advantage for romney. >>stuart: governor romney has a new ad, essentially, and i will call it a personal challenge to the president on the issue of character. i will have a short clip and ask your opinion. >> what does it say about a president's character when he had the campaign raise money for the ad and stood by as the top aides were caught lying? doesn't america deserve better than a president who will say or do anything to stay in power? >>stuart: that is edg

we are joined by larry sabato joining us from charlottesville, and tell us a little bit about your response reaction afterwards. when i listen ed ed to and this afterwards we had republican analysts alex castellanos summing it up as very good, and david gergen saying a lot of heart, but needed soul. what did you think? >> it is workman-like, and you have to take the speech in the context of what the republicans were able to do in the convention. and yes, that i were able to humanize him, and warm him up and the wife helped to do that and so did some of other speakers. is this speech going to live in history? no. they are not to get gettysburg address. >> of course, he is taking the show on the road now, and he said he does have a specific plan for jobs. >> what is needed in our country today is not complicated or profound. it does not take a special government commission to tell us what america needs. what america needs is jobs, lots of jobs. unlike the president, i have a plan to create 12 million new jobs. >> all right. larry, he did not explain how he would do that and i don't know if pe

larry sabato, good to see you. >> thanks, ashleigh. >>> paul ryan's budget proposal which incorporates some pretty significant changes to medicare has at least one critic saying it would, quote, end medicare as we know it. that has echoeded several times around washington as well. other team have speculated it could cause mitt romney some serious challenges in winning senior citizen rich florida. guess what, florida's really, real 4ri important this time around. the two men on the 2012 republican ticket addressed the questions about ryan's controversial proposals in a joint interview on sunday on cbs. >> paul ryan and i have talked about is saving medicare, is providing people greater choice on medicare, making sure it's there for current seniors. no changes for current seniors or those nearing retirement. but looking at young people down the road and saying we're going to give you a bigger choice. >> the senior medical correspondent elizabeth cohen is joining us live now. elizabeth, this is complex stuff. really hafrd to break down in a couple of minutes on television. but generally s

and larry sabato doesn't expect a bump for obama. >> gretchen: couple of head lines. folks news headain loos. the admitted killer in norway, the court ruled that brevic is sane. the maximum sentence is 21 years and can be extended. he claimed that the attack was necessary to prevent muslims from taking over europe . >> former ambassador, riknow crocker hut another car and drove away. he pled not guilty. he retired in july citing health issuings. banned for life. lance armstrong banned from cycling forever and stripped him of his sentitles. armstrong denies taking performance enhancing drugs and said it was a witch hunt.coe has to say enough is enough. for me it is now. the tollit has taken on my family and work and foundation leads me finished with this nonsense. >> brian: he raised 470 million for cancer research and that's what he overcame since he started the fownation. 92 live strong. straight ahead, remember good old baseball cards? they are terrorist cards found in kid's coloring books. >> gretchen: turns out occupy wall street movement pays good. they are pulli

larry sabato, thank you for joining us.ope so. >> brian: happy birthday to you. meanwhile, more "fox & friends" in two minutes. wake up! that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm. fohalf the calories plus vgie nutrition. could've had a v8. well hello, welcome to hotels.com. summer road trip, huh? uhuh yep uch let's find you a room. at hotels.com, you'll always find the perfect hotel. because we only do hotels. wow. i like that. nice no. laugh... awe uch ooh, yeah hmm nice huh book it! oh boy call me... this summer, we're finding you the perfect place - plus giving you up to $100 at hotels.com who are these guys? oh, that's just my buds. bacon, donuts. -my taste buds. -[ taste buds ] waffles. how about we try this new kind of fiber one cereal? you think you're going to slip some fiber by us? rookie. okay. ♪ nutty clusters and almonds, ♪ ♪ almonds. ♪ fiber one is gonna make you smile. ♪ [ male announcer ] introducing new fiber one nutty clusters and almonds. with 43% daily value of fiber for you. crunchy nutty clusters and real

larry sabato looks into his crystal ball. take us through it. do conventions provide bounces?. when you don't have an incumbent in the race as we had in 2000, we didn't have an incumbent, it was an open seat candidate, you tend to get a larger bounce because people don't know the candidates as well. they learn a lot during the conventions. when you have an incumbent, particularly a polarizing incumbent, whether it was george w. bush in 2004 or president obama today, you have less of a bounce because people already know where they stand. they're either for or against the incumbent. >> eric: but what about in the case of the rnc, paul ryan being named the vice presidential nominee relatively recently. a lot of people may be the first chance to see him. do you expect any sort of bounce in the rnc this time? >> yes. i think there will be a bounce for the republicans because ryan is so little known and believe it or not, to a lot of viewers, mitt romney is relatively unknown. they know who he is. they don't know a lot about him. the more people learn and the more they have their pa

larry sabato's crystal ball. >> good morning. >> we have talked a lot about wisconsin and we will in a moment. but, first, some suggest the pick of paul as v.p. could hurt romney's chances in all important florida because of the high population of seniors and, of course, that method the democrats are trying to get out there that paul ryan's budget hurts seniors because of his medicare plans. >> sure. look. every pick for vice president has pluses and minuses. you know, mother teresa was not available for the position. so, if you are looking to minuses, you would probably look to a state like florida, which not surprisingly, has the largest percentage of seniors in the population of any state. 22% of the voters back in 2008 were seniors, age 65 and over. why would they be concerned? because undoubtedly democrats are going to focus their attacks on ryan with a mediscare attack. that is an attack on his budget plan concerning medicare. so, of course, older people are concerned about that. it may have some impact. but

joe trippi weighs in on that and larry sabato is here with his crystal ball. bounce can the g.o.p. expect from the convention, guys, will you watch? >> yes we will. bill: we aren't going anywhere for two hours. martha: that's what we do every day on "happening now." bill: there is new fallout on a book written by a navy seal describing what really happened the night osama bin laden was taken out. the passenger is reacting to that. live on that in a moment. martha: a thief with a sweet tooth, this bakery bust eris caught in action. wait until we tell you what his first grab was. i think it might have been a doughnut. apparently it wasn't the cash. we'll be right back. >> hhelp were so irresistible that he had to come back again. he took a couple of bucks and the rest was food, good he's. le- 8% every 10 years. wow. wow. but you can help fight muscle loss goodies. i've got revigor. what's revigor? it's the amino acid metabolite, hmb to help rebuild muscle and strength naturally lost over time. [ female announcer ] ensure muscle health has revigor and protein to

will it be this tight the first tuesday in november in larry sabato takes a look into his crystal ballancial crisis in greece the president decided to wait until after the election. stuart varney knows why and he's here on a sunday as well to tell us. >> steve: and we're tracking tropical storm isaac as it gets closer to becoming a hurricane. and making landfall, in florida. those are live images. where is it going? the details, the latest, next. ♪ the one and only, cheerios ♪ why not take a day to explore your own backyard? with two times the points on travel, you may find yourself asking why not, a lot. chase sapphire preferred. there's more to enjoy. after you jumped buship in bangkok,n. i thought i'd lost you. >>> surfing is my life now. but who's going to .... >>> tell the world that priceline has even faster, easier ways to save you money. . . on hotels, flights & cars? you still have it. >>> i'll always have it. so this is it? >>> we'll see where the waves take me. sayonara, brah! >> steve: looking at the crystal ball, they are running neck and neck in the polls, the latest "gal

larry sabato is in the center of politics. how does this compare to 089? >> 08?voters won't show up is probably accurate. it was 37% in 2008. i think it will tick up two or three percentage points. there is less energy in this election, especially on the democratic side, that is another problem for president obama. and they know it. that's why necessity are putting so much money and effort into voter identification and get out the vote activities, because they have got to reenergize young people, minorities, and others. but, look, there is nothing they can do about the vast majority of that 40%. half a life is showing up and 100% of mythical life is showing up. and the vast majority of that group, of that 40% similarly will not show up. martha: let's take a look at another element of this poll, and this is how do you view the candidate in terms of favorability numbers. i want to reiterate for everyone at home, these who answered these questions are unregistered, unlikely voters, those who are likely to sit out this ball game are very sraeubl to president obama. 5