jon: let's bring in larry sabato, director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. re the guy with the crystal ball, larry, and you say even the crystal ball is surprised at where the democratic and republican races stand right now with respect to iowa. >> absolutely. certainly on the democratic side, it's far closer than anybody imagined six months ago. we think, think that clinton may be able to pull it out very narrowly for one structural reason, jon, that people haven't focused on. the students, college students who overwhelmingly sport bernie sanders -- support bernie sanders, it's like 70% to 30% for clinton, they are heavily concentrated in just a few of the iowa counties. and this thing's all about delegates. it doesn't matter how many votes you have in these caucus meetings. you can have a lot of excess votes, you don't get any extra credit. this is very different than barack obama eight years ago. why? because the iowa caucuses were right after new year's day. the students were still dispursed in their home counties, so they counted for more. so we're watch

professor larry sabato is the director of the center for politics at uva. i'm going to larry.sume perhaps naively he has no dog in this fight, although i think he might be gunning for virginia to get a shot as the first one, you're shaking your head, tell me, sir, why is it wrong for us to invest so much power in the hands of the voters of iowa and new hampshire? >> because, chris, put them together. they're 1.5% of the national populati population. they have a tiny minority population, as you just mentioned. they're disproportionately rural. they don't represent the urban, suburban, exurban nature of america as it exists today. and most important i think, and i'm sorry, governor, i think they have gotten spoiled. they are the spoiled children of american politics. they throw a temper tantrum if you ever suggest they shouldn't go first. i had a voter in iowa tell me not too long ago that it was in the constitution that they were supposed to go first. no, it's not in the constitution. this was invented by iowa and new hampshire and they stay there, chris, because they want it m

larry sabato.t-runner not going to the debates, days before the caucus. this is unprecedented, right? >> it's absolutely unprecedented. you have to go back to 1964, 1968, 1972 to find presidential candidates who refused to debate. so, yeah, this is -- you know, he said in the beginning, trump said in the beginning that he's a little bit different. no, he's a lot different. [ laughter ] >> you know, you have the situation where in the caucus according to the "q" poll he's got a two-point lead. is that in jeopardy or could that grow? >> that's an important question and here's why. the only thing that matters right now is what iowans think. not what we think. what iowans think. they take their process very seriously. anybody who's been out there knows how sober they are and how they approach this. are they feeling dissed? do they feel trifled with? if so, then some of those undecided votes who may be leaning trump could go some place else or maybe it's like since he announced in the summer, his follow

larry sabato, with the university of virginia. i know your weekly newsletter is normally not a comedy, however, this one reads like one when you look at the predictions of the past and what we thought at the beginning of election years. why is it that what we think at the beginning of the year so often isn't the case? >> jenna, it's because we can't possibly anticipate all or even most of the big events that occur during a year. and an election is almost always a year away at january 1st. we did go back and take a look at what all the columnists and the network commentators were saying about the new year, what would happen in the presidential race. just let me cite one example 1980, which is classic. jimmy carter was 25 percentage points ahead of ronald reagan in the trial heats for november. 25 percentage points. remember, carter ended up losing in a landslide to ronald reagan. so all the commentators confidently predicted that if only the republicans will nominate ronald reagan why jimmy carter will get his second term. and it's

with me, larry sabato and new york -- and errol louis is also here, the political anchor for new york news and a cnn political commentator. welcome to you both. i'll start with you, larry. let's start with the endorsement from sarah palin for donald trump. frankly, that's all anyone's talking about right now. will it help donald trump, you think? >> yes. look, iowa is a game of inches, carol. i think certainly donald trump gains in inches. he may have gained a couple of yards. why is that? because the iowa caucuses have really relatively low participation. you're talking about 100,000, 150,000, maybe 200,000 people. it's a state of 3 million. and the people who participate in the republican caucuses in iowa often are associated with the tea party and with evangelical christianity. well, sarah palin clearly has great influence with the tea party. and so i think it probably did help him. he's already in a close race with ted cruz. cruz got that double whammy you mentioned of governor branstad which may have been the more important shot at cruz. governor branstad basically telling iowa r

larry sabato, good to see you. >>> officers usingletal force against a key player in the armed standoff. will the video do anything now to ease the tensions now that they have released it? >>> with the final debate in the rear-view mirror, what was your favorite moment in last night's debate? that's the question of the day. tweet me. also, we are going to show some of your debate viewing photos. lots of you sent them to me last night. i appreciate that. on facebook and twitter and inthi instagr instagram. listen up! i'm here to get the lady of the house back on her feet. and give her the strength and energy to stay healthy. who's with me?! yay! the complete balanced nutrition of great tasting ensure. with 9 grams of protein and 26 vitamins and minerals. ensure. take life in! new zicam cold remedy nasal swabs shorten colds with a snap, and reduce symptom severity by 45%. shorten your cold with a snap, with zicam. >>> welcome back. the fbi releasing an aerial look at this week's confrontation with the armed men in oregon. one of them driving that truck looking to outrun the police. but he

larry sabato, thank you so much.appy new year. >> same to you, fred. >> we have much more "newsroom," straight ahead. right after this. ight at home, . right at home's professional team thoughtfully selects caregivers to help with personal care, housekeeping, meals, and most of all, staying engaged in life. oh, thank you, thank you. you're welcome. are you ready to go? oh, i sure am. we can provide the right care, right at home. >>> a big travel weekend with a lot of people heading home after the holidays. o'hare is one of the nation's busiest airports. and along with another chicago airport, midway, it's the focus of this cnn investigation. we wanted to know why some of the police officers assigned to protect both airports are not allowed to carry weapons. they work alongside armed police officers, but there's one major difference. if there is an attack at any terminal, these aviation police officers say they are trained and told to run away. and now those officers are speaking out. here's cnn senior investigative c

larry sabato joins us live.mes part of the story as their van gets broken into and robbed. tell you about that. a new twist of the "making a murderer" with a federal judge deciding that the main character's nephew is illegally in prison. we'll keep you updated. bill: thank you, jenna. coopers town is welcoming two legends to the hall of fame. one of them is still breaking records. we'll tell you how. ♪ you can't breathed. through your nose. suddenly, you're a mouthbreather. well, just put on a breathe right strip which instantly opens your nose up to 38% more than cold medicine alone. shut your mouth and say goodnight mouthbreathers. breathe right is our partnership with habitat for humanity. pg&e is committed to clean energy and part of that commitment our mission is to build homes, community and hope. our homeowners are low-income families, so the ability for them to have lower energy cost is wonderful. we have been able to provide about 600 families with solar on their homes. that's over nine and a half milli

newt gingrich joins us and larry sabato joins us at the top of the hour. who wins iowa on both sides. this big news item as well. the sikh can virus is spreading like wildfire around causing news for major u.s. airlines that could impact you. we'll tell you about it top of the hour. ♪ bill: kind of digging our new office, martha. martha: we'll settle in here next few days, get us through the caucuses. so interesting talking to folks running campaigns and rand paul and ted cruz's folks. gives you insight. the stakes are so huge for these people. they have committed so much time, so much love, so much energy to these candidates. they watch that person go out there on the stage tonight. they're all hoping that person will do well. and as rick tyler was saying. you have kids camped out on air mattress. something called cruz campus or camp cruz right here down the street. there is just a lot of emotion and a lot of heart goes into this whole thing. i think it is such revealing thing to see that side of it up close here in iowa. bill: it is interesting when you

neil: i do know about about larry sabato.s probably the smartest political pundit and single-handedly responsible for jimmy carter. good to see you my friend. >> yes my friend. you once had the two of us on. by the way we are once again the night as we always do. donald trump gave you a good run at the end. he knew he had his best debate. neil: that is what i was going to ask you and thank you for glossing over it. how did he do, he's the leader. what do you think? >> i think he was strong for these reasons. i think he was not alone by the way. think cruz had a really good night. the rankings on the candidates with cruz and christie was also in their at least noise in there. neil: he has to break through. >> let me tell you what trump did. if you think of the mood of the country, not the mood of our audience. it's quite an establishment for the republican group by the way and that's why he got booed. this is a very establishment republican party in charleston south carolina but when he did the thing about why i am angry, but

so i was talking to larry sabato.illiant move by donald trump because he won't be on a stage with ted cruz who is in attack mode. donald trump would just rather not answer any questions or have anyone attack him and that's why he's doing this. >> very few people in politics are sharper than larry. his crystal ball is rarely foggy. he's exactly right. ted cruz is america's best debater. nine arguments before the supreme court. that doesn't happy because you're lucky. it happens because you're a skilled advocate. he would have come prepared and will still come prepared. it's a question of whether you can land darts or slice open someone who is not there to duel with you. nonetheless, the audience will be huge for this. i don't know if it will get as high as when jake and dana and i did a debate but it will be huge. they will tune in and there won't be an empty lecturn. the rnc is very fair. i heard reince priebus say this is not our fight. you don't have to go to this debate, you just can't go to any other debates. ther

. >> gloria borger joins me now, so does larry sabato, mark lamont hill, a cnn political commentator.et sometimes that politicians are people with real problems. that was so touching from mr. biden. tell us more. >> i think it tells you an awful lot about how his relationship with the president has evolved over the last seven years. you know, they've had their tough times. remember when joe biden got out ahead of the president on the issue of gay marriage, for example. they've disagreed on iraq policy, on afghanistan. they've had their difference which, by the way, they talk about. but i think over the years -- you know, when you work down the hall from somebody every day, you get to know them pretty well. they're two very different people, right? i mean, biden is a hot politician. obama is a cool politician. but you can really sense from joe biden in this interview that after his son got sick, he had no better friend than the. . he confided in the president. i'm sure he confided in the president about whether he was going to run for the presidency. and, you know, the idea that the pr

larry sabato, the university of virginia. martha: indonesia on evening after the terror attack there. the police with strong clues. you know, to show the importance of saving for the future. so you're sort of like a spokes person? more of a spokes metaphor. get organized at voya.com. with new trublend primer covergirl makes flawless as easy as... one... "tru"... three. preps and smooths skin and trublend makeup blends flawlessly plus new trublend blush and bronzer from easy breezy beautiful covergirl. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and university partnerships, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in utica, where a new kind of workforce is being trained. and in albany, the nanotechnology capital of the world. let us help grow your company's tomorrow, today at business.ny.gov that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhe

joining me now, larry sabato. good to see you.n iowa while ted cruz slips. what's behind it? >> well, donald trump had a very good week. it wasn't just sarah palin endorsing him. i think the most significant thing that happened was governor terry branstad, who is very popular in iowa, the longest-serving governor in the history of the united states in any state, did something i don't remember anybody doing. he basically told the republicans in iowa i don't care who you vote for as long as you don't vote for ted cruz. that is the ultimate anti-endorsement, and i think it had a real impact. clearly it's going to help trump, it has helped trump. let's remember, alex, we got eight days. candidates save special endorsements for the last week and they also save dirty tricks like nasty phone calls and mailers. so things can still happen. >> sarah palin and the endorsement there, how much has that helped? >> well, it helps trump with the tea party voters and even some evangelicals. he's cut into ted cruz's once giant advantage with the ev