but larry sabato does one with his crystal ball, as well. and larry sabato's new map is out today. is, it is something that if i had just been named campaign manager for the red team this year, and i looked at that map, i would put myself off the grid somewhere and tell somebody to hike out and find me mid-november when it's over. because there is no work that can be done to fix this. this, to me, looks like impossibility defined. larry sabato currently has hillary clinton winning the electoral college in a blowout, with 348 votes. you only need 270 to win. you'll notice, there are no toss-up states on his map. every state is some shade of red or blue. every state is either a safe democrat or likely democrat or lean democrat, or it's safe republican, likely republican, or lean republican. there's no toss-up states, at all. there are two points to make here looking at this map. here's point number one. the trump campaign says it's going to focus from here on out on five crucial states. florida, north carolina, virginia, ohio, and pennsylvania. in larry sabato's crystal ball figuring

joining me now is larry sabato, director of the university of virginia's center for politics and keeper own battleground map. and of course the sabato crystal ball. mr. sabato, how are you, sir? >> i'm doing great, chuck. how are you doing? >> i'm good. larry, one of our compatriots in this weird business that we're in of trying to prognosticate sometimes, stu rothenberg, said the election's over, we're just having to mark basically run out the clock till november. essentially barring something that we don't know that everything is locking in here. is that how you see it? >> well, in march my website, the crystal ball, that you just mentioned issued an electoral map. hillary clinton, 347, well above the 270 needed. donald trump 191. and i'm starting to question the 191. so let's just say i smell the cake baking. i think you do too. and stu certainly does. and donald trump will have to change dramatically. we talk about these resets and pivots. and they remind me of multiple marriages. the triumph of hope over experience. >> one of the things, though, about -- the interesting thing about

. >>> joining me now to talk more about politics is larry sabato, from the university of virginia.reat to talk with you, sir. so less than 12 weeks from the presidential election and donald trump and hillary clinton are dealing with numerous issues for their campaigns. so let's talk first about the latest polling numbers. what are electoral map predictions indicating at this point? >> hillary clinton is doing better than at any point yet in the campaign. my own electoral predictions have her now at 348 electoral votes. you only need 270 to win. that is not including the normally republican states of arizona in the west and georgia in the south. both of those states are toss-ups, and hillary clinton and donald trump are tied in what should normally be a ten-point or so republican state. >> now, what's your sense of why it's at that point, why there seems to be so much more support for hillary clinton and not for trump, what has happened on the trump side to have that sort of slump in his support? >> well, i think you have to start with the fact that all of the things taken together

we have larry sabato from the university of virginia. ree with the premise that there has been a definite media tilt against donald trump? >> yes. i don't think there is any question about that. look, there was a media tilt against mitt romney there was a media tilt against john mccain, and against george w. bush. it has more to do with party and personal character i-s of journalists than anything else >> you believe the press generally is unfair to republican presidential candidate but i have never seen anything like this level and some could caused by donald trump with his statements. here is the argument and this is a good reporter, it was put on the front page reporters think trump is dangerous or would bization as president and it is their duty to stop him but they are not commentators or activists but reporters. >> i think that is a very distinction. if you are a commentator or a pundit, you can say whatever you want and it should read analysis. that is law are doing or analysis on a newspaper headline but if you are a straight repo

and bringing in larry sabato at the center of politics at the university of virginia. larry, how many senate seats do you see as genuinely at risk? >> well, poppy, i think that n senator mcconnell is absolutely correct, and out of the 34 senate seats up, 10 of them are highly competitive, and amazingly, nine of the ten highly competitive senate seats are held by the republicans, and the democrats have one seat in nevada that they are concerned about. there are nine republican seats that potentially could flip to the democrats, and all of the democrats need is to grab four of those ten, and we have 46 right now, and they need to get up to 50 at which point, if the democratic ticket is elected, then vice president tim kaine would brake the tie. >> and it is interesting, because donald trump has made the case that he will bring in ma many, many new sloerters, and that is going to help the party across the board, and help the party down ballot. does he have a point? >> well, sure if he a actually is winning, but we are not seeing it in the key polls. we are not seeing it in

senior vatican analyst is in rome and larry sabato author of the kennedy half century. t the catholic vote, how big a voting -- how important, rather, a voting bloc, and are the particular state races particularly toss-up state races where the catholic vote could be decisive? >> well, it's very important. in fact, catholics are a full 25% of the american electorate. and what's remarkable, jim, about the numbers you just gave us is that the catholic vote in recent years, not back in 1960 when 80% of catholics voted for john f. kennedy. in recent years the catholic vote has tracked the national vote almost exactly. it voted for george w. bush early in 2004 and then, as you mentioned, barack obama in both 2008, 2012 by about the national margin. so this is really remarkable. i think it's partly attributable to the fact that a third of american catholics are now hispanics. as we know, trump is doing very poorly with hispanics and also among american catholics, they are much more likely to be either immigrants or the children of immigrants compared to the whole population. an

larry sabato will break it all down.fresh batch of clinton emails that might shed more light on connections between donations to the clinton foundation and the state department and favors that were granted while hillary clinton was in charge. we'll go through all of that in a moment here. abby: never ending. a training exercise turns deadly when shots are fired at a police academy. >> our entire police department and all of our city leaders are absolutely devastated in this unimaginable event. i am asking if you pray, you pray for mary's husband and family, and for all officers and witnesses. you can run an errand. (music playing) ♪ push it real good... (announcer vo) or you can take a joyride. bye bye, errands, we sing out loud here. siriusxm. road happy. (announcer vo) you can sit in traffic. or you can crack up. (man on radio) but if it isn't refreshing... (announcer vo) sorry traffic, we laugh 'til it hurts. siriusxm. road happy. bill: brand new batch of hillary clinton emails shining a spotlight on the close ties be

thank you very much, larry sabato. >> thank you, alex. >> ransom or leverage?mplications of that $400 million payment to iran. when heartburn comes creeping up on you. fight back with relief so smooth and fast. tums smoothies starts dissolving the instant it touches your tongue. and neutralizes stomach acid at the source. tum-tum-tum-tum-tums smoothies, only from tums. i'm going to make this as simple as possible for you. you can go ahead and stick with that complicated credit card that limits where you earn bonus cash back. or... you can get the quicksilver card from capital one. quicksilver earns you unlimited 1.5% cash back on ev-e-ry purchase, ev-e-ry-where. i shouldn't have to ask. what's in your wallet? craso come dive into disheser like the new alaska bairdi crab dinner with sweet crab from the icy waters of alaska. or try crab lover's dream with tender snow and king crab legs. love crab? then hurry, crabfest ends soon. here you go.picking up for kyle. you wouldn't put up with part of a pizza. um. something wrong? so when it comes to pain relievers, why

larry sabato, thank you very much. >>> after the break.mother who lost a daughter to the plague of chicago. the heartbreaking interview. trust me, it is. that's right after this. hotels.com makes it simple to book the perfect kid-friendly hotel. which is great for families. finally! whatever captain obvious. save up to 50% during the hotels.com labor day sale. and get an extra 10% off with promo code lastchance. abdbloating?in? you may have ibs. ask your doctor if non-prescription ibgard is right for you. ibgard calms the angry gut. available at cvs, walgreens and rite aid. >>> top of the hour now. you are live in the cnn newsroom. i'm shim sciutto in for poppy harlow. we're hearing from the grieving mother of a chicago woman who was gunned down while taking a walk with her newborn baby. her daughter an innocent victim of the gun violence on chicago's streets. two men, they're brothers, are locked up right now charged in the shooting death of nikia aldridge. aldridge is the cousin of nba star dwyane wade. police say she was not the intende

larry sabato, thank you.eanwhile, the gadsden flag is an icon of the revolutionary war and now it's being called racist. >>> and elizabeth warren is furious with hillary clinton. wait until you hear this. trust me, no one saw this one coming. you can run an errand. (music playing) ♪ push it real good... (announcer vo) or you can take a joyride. bye bye, errands, we sing out loud here. siriusxm. road happy. the search for relief often leads to this. introducing drug-free aleve direct therapy. a high intensity tens device that uses technology once only in doctors' offices. for deep penetrating relief at the source. new aleve direct therapy. (announcer vo) you can go straight home. (howard stern on radio) welcome to show business. (announcer vo) or you can hear the rest of howard. bababooey! (announcer vo) sorry, confused neighbors, howard's on. siriusxm. road happy. >>> we have some quick headlines for you. game over, the nfl canceling the hall of fame game between green bay packers and the indianapolis colts i

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my colleague jonathan mann spoke earlier to larry sabato on more perspective on what donald trump plansn-americans. >> what is this really about? is donald trump actually making a pitch for the african-american vote? i can tell you right now and riz advisers have told him that he has very little chance of getting more than a handful of percentage points from african-americans. this is designed to reassure conservative or moderate normally republican whites who are living in suburbs or central cities and their concern that donald trump is to be blunt about it anti-black. they don't want to be associated with that. >> is it working? i ask because the examples jump out at you. when he started this outreach effort, he started with a series of really offensive generalizations about african-americans, that they have no jobs, that they have no homes, that they have no safe neighborhoods. and today that tweet which seemed to capitalize on the murder of an innocent woman as evidence that african-americans will vote trump, like there was somehow a logical connection between that woman's death and

the director for the university of virginia, senator for politics, larry sabato, and commentators joinld trump supporter, kayleigh and hilary rosen. larry, this jobs reports come out, it appears to be strong, 255,000 jobs added to the economy. how might this play? >> well, it is good news for hillary clinton. it balances the bad news of that earlier report about the growth of the gross domestic product, which was only 1.2% in the second quarter. carol, something i've learned over the years. there is a blizzard of numbers related to the economy. these reports come out constantly. the real question is how does the voter interpret them. and there has been a lot of research there. surprise, surprise. the voter cares about the economy that he or she knows. that is, is he employed. is she employed. how about the immediate family members, are they fully employed. are they happy with their wages. if yes, they tend to vote for the incumbent party. unless their party i.d. contradicts it. if no, they're inclined to go with the opposition. so the numbers are interesting, and we love chewing on the

larry sabato, great to see you this sunday from virginia. >> thank you, howie. >> have a great day. >>> after the break, a woman wins an olympic medal and her husband gets the credit? that and more on the rio coverage next. p?p?h >>> so what do you think that women are different? >> more than thinking nthey enjy watching and leaves everything on the floor, blood sweat and tier ti tears. they want to see the built in drama. it is not an episode of the bachelor or survivor. >> let me get you something. >> thank you. thank you. >> so when a woman reported wife of chicago bears defensive wins bronze. mitch cheered her from his home. they very married for two years. what? >> it is really dufifficult for some people to understand female athlete. they have to be the wife of, daughter of, mother of, she can't simply be a female athlete. can you imagine if the same sort of language is used far male athle athlete? no one refer to michael phelps as husband of, son of. no body referred to him as the male ledecky. she is an amazing athlete and that's it. >> all right. here is another example for

>> i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. >> back with me now, larry sabato and ryan lizza.that ad. there's been so much talk on both sides. and frankly even just in the last 24 hours. really feels in many ways to be an unprecedented mudslinging campaign between two candidates. at the end of the day, it's about how voters respond to this. it feels like uncharted territory, larry. could it backfire? >> well, i think it is backfiring if the goal by donald trump is to get a larger minority vote. look, four years ago, mitt romney got less than 20% of all minority groups put together. that is president obama got more than 80%. the shocking thing is that this year hillary clinton is going to do better, in my view, than president obama did. she's going to get well above 80% of all minorities. that means the only way, the only way donald trump can win is with a large majority of whites and a large turnout among whites and it probably is impossible. there are loads of whites, white women, college-educated whites, younger whites, who are simply not going to vote for donald trump. so g

that is according to larry sabato. that was the number that you project projected on march 31.e of the states have changed in terms of their strength of commitment but the number hasn't changed. why do you think it hasn't? >> you've got it exactly right. we have a very different method than some other websites that i think overrely on polling. hillary clinton was way biep, and now she's gone further ahead. biep so what do we do? yes, we look at polls and polling averages in particular. but we also look at demographic changes. we look at the structure of the campaign. we look at things like presidential job approval, which is absolutely critical, and amazingly, president obama is now well above 50%, which is crucial to hillary clinton's attempt to gain a third consecutive term in the white house for the democratic party. >> and apparently at the highest level, his approval at the highest level of his second term. i was looking at one electoral map, and it showed there was a path to the white house for donald trump. albeit a very narrow one. it basically went this way, larry. if

i want to good out to larry sabato of the uva snore for politic's to see how he thinks hill we play out. is the e-mail scale going to cost her? >> well, the e-mail scandal will be part and parcel of the general election campaign, no doubt will be a focus of the debates. that hasn't had much of an impact during the convention. that is, we have been watching what the bounce is or isn't, and there really hasn't been much movement. >> so back -- we did see donald trump get a bit of a bounce out of his convention. she is getting the same. when it's all said and done and more news surfaces, for example, what she just said to chris wallace, which is in direct contrast to what james comey has been saying all along -- does that come back to haunt her? >> well, trish, it might. depends on what else is happening. it isn't as though nothing is coming out of the other side either. you have competing controversies, competing issues, on a daily basis, and timing is a lot of this. we'll just have to see what happens. we're not even at the point where the bounce has been determined yet. it's going to ta

professor larry sabato at the university of virginia of donald trump's sinking poll numbers. he offered those candidates are done. let's bring back the panel, start us off hook at the national state by state polls on presidential level. this looks like a blood bath in the major of some race changing dynamic. looks like a blood bath at the presidential level. the story is republicans are hanging tough and being competitive despite that drag from the top of the ticket. look at marco rubio in florida. pat toomey in pennsylvania. these are places where senate candidates are running at least competitively in some cases a little bit ahead. despite the sort of downdraft from the presidential. >> kelly? >> when mitch mcconnell worries about being evicted from the majority leader's office next year. republicans have a problem. you are stating to hear major donors say i will give my money to endangered republicans governorships and not to donald trump. this assumes and i don't think we ought to fall through the trap of assuming that polls and races don't change horrible three weeks who

larry sabato. and from washington rick klein political editor for abc news.sessment of the foundation story tonight, mr. klein, does it help trump? >> if this campaign is about donald trump, donald trump is on a path to losing. if the campaign is about hillary clinton, he has the potential path to winning and getting back in the conversation. so, this story touches on so many elements of clinton's vulnerabilities. transparency, conflicts of interest. questions of honest and trustworthiness. it's a story that's going to develop the next couple of months before the election. i think trump is smart to focus on it and pound it through as many different avenues as he can before november 8th. >> just to reiterate, doctor, the headline in the subordinated press half the people granted interviews with hillary clinton one on ones don't thetad significant money to the foundation. that doesn't look good, does it? >> no. and this is a legitimate issue. the emails are will he g-8 mat. the clinton foundation is legitimate. the question i have is how many people are even pe

let's go to larry sabato. it surprised me. i was watching the whole press conference in my office and saw it take that turn where he started attacking donald trump. i was expecting we would just hear him talk about the transpacific trade partnership deal with the prime minister of singapore but it got very political, and i thought, is this appropriate? time and place. right? time and place. is this really appropriate for the president to be talking about donald trump when he is there alongside the prime minister of singapore? what are your thoughts on that and what do you think we'll hear in a couple minutes from him? >> well, appropriate or not i can guarantee you the number one priority for president obama and his administration is the election of hillary clinton, because without hillary clinton succeeding barack obama, his legacy items will disappear. they will be revoked or minimized, in a trump administration. so, given the fact that his job approval now is above 50, an average of 52, 53% in the polling averages, you can

professor larry sabato at the university of virginia of donald trump's sinking poll numbers.those candidates are done. let's bring back the panel, start us off hook at the national state by state polls on presidential level. this looks like a blood bath in the major of some race changing dynamic. looks like a blood bath at the presidential level. the story is republicans are hanging tough and being competitive despite that drag from the top of the ticket. look at marco rubio in florida. pat toomey in pennsylvania. these are places where senate candidates are running at least competitively in some cases a little bit ahead. despite the sort of downdraft from the presidential. >> kelly? >> when mitch mcconnell worries about being evicted from the majority leader's office next year. republicans have a problem. you are stating to hear major donors say i will give my money to endangered republicans governorships and not to donald trump. this assumes and i don't think we ought to fall through the trap of assuming that polls and races don't change horrible three weeks whole campaign

. >> larry sabato. thank you for talking with us. if only you could give me a crystal ball in life.d love it for the lottery if nothing else. >> thanks larry. >>> let's bring back the panel. phillip, i'm going start with you again. i want your take on this whole crystal ball prediction. what is your opinion? and where do you think trump should focus? >> if he can get pennsylvania, north carolina, ohio and florida he'll win. right? pennsylvania looks a little outside of the margin right now for that to even be possible. then you have to figure out the aamalgam of other states to get that electoral votes. he's got a lot of work to do. frankly i would sit in about five or six states and tell them never to donald trump outside of those states and try to make up the difference because he is down. but one of the key things i want to keep in mind is the ground game. hillary has a really great ground game turnout operation but there is not a lot of enthusiasm for her. so it is going to guarantee her one to two points. that is my prediction. so if you are seeing polls where she's up four, th

for the senate, the battle for the house, and the question of the trump effect, let's turn to larry sabatooining us. why do we stipulate the house, to put it mildly, a real stretch for democrats, let's look at the senate, though, you've got a lot of republican seats that are up this year because they had a very good year the last time this class was up in 2010. this time, though, they'll have to deal with trump at the top of the ticket, those republican candidates, what's that going to mean. >> it's doing to mean the democrats have a decent to good chance to take over the senate, steve, and by the time we get closer to november 8th, and let's stipulate, it's early august, we've both been around a while and we know how things can change. when we get closer to november, we may be asking ourselves can democrats run up the score enough to protect themselves to what's coming in 2018, midterm, possibly and president hillary clinton's first term that could easily switch a lot of seats back to the republicans in the senate. >> that's what democrats learned in 2010, flip side of a big year in presi

right now, we have the senator for politics, larry sabato, larry cellulsellers and scottie hughes. >> thanks, carol. >> thanks for being here. scottie, the former cia director, michael hayden, said when you're candidate, you are not only responsible for what you say, but for what people hear. donald trump may have spoken clumsy, but his words inspire. at the republican national convention, his dire warning over the second amendment inspired a group of men to show up carrying semi-automatic weapons. we have a picture of those men. i hope so. they were there. and i talked with them. please put up that picture, the video now. okay, so we don't have it. but trust me, they were there. i talked with them. they meant no harm, but police were not happy. don't words have consequences? >> words definitely do. beauty is in the eye of the b beholder, if you wants to take them negatively, that's how you're going to take them. if you listen and realize that's not what he meant, he did not mean that. this is what this campaign has become. you like him or don't. you either believe he meant it as a th

. >> reporter: political analyst, larry sabato said it will have an effect and send a message to gopoters that it is okay to switch sides. >> turn it around and ask yourself a basic question. how many prominent democrats have endorsed donald trump. >> we're seeing battleground states, a new poll in new hampshire has clinton leading trump by 15 points. that's really remarkable, norah, given trump was leading in a similar poll back in may by two points. >> nancy, thank you so much. i'll be meeting up with vice-presidential nominee, tim kaine. you'll get a first interview tonight on "cbc evening news" and more on our show "cbs this morning." >>> a woman killed in central lond london. five other hurt in the knife attack in an area popular with tourists. a 19-year-old suspect is in custody. police have stepped up security. at the scene of the stabbings in london's russell square with the latest details. elizabeth, good morning. >> reporter: good morning. witnesses have told us a man began attacking people with a knife, pa apparently at random after 10:30 here last night. police showed up

plus, larry sabato is here with his new battleground map and a closer look at an alternative to trump, a candidate who is making moves to watch, bill. we'll take a look at that. bill: that's a tease. see you in ten minutes. >>> any moment now, expecting trump. we'll take you live there when it happens. >>> plus, we're not messing around when we tell you this cowboy rustled up next to a taco bell. ♪ ♪ ...their dad went to the new safelite-dot-com... ...and scheduled a replacement... ...in just a few clicks. with safelite you don't have to miss a thing. y'all did wonderful! thank you. (girls sing) safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ ♪ bill: both parties now watching closely the critical statewide contests, balance of power on the line. one of the tightest races might be in illinois. incumbent republican senator mark kirk is in a to have fight with democrat tammy duckworth. mike tobin live on that from chicago. where does this race stand today, mike? >> reporter: they are close to neck and neck with the advantage possibly going to the challenger, and because troll of the senate is up in

. >>> let's talk about this, larry sabato is back, director of virginia senator for politics. rebecca berg, real clear politics. welcome to both of you. these notes from this fbi interview, larry, they're going to be turned over to congress, right and congress is not supposed to say a word about them because it is supposed to be secret. but you know perhaps drips and drabs will come out about it. will that hurt hillary clinton? >> we'll all be shocked, shocked when this is leaked to the press. who could have guessed that this will appear in print. look, i view it as a low-grade fever. it is certainly not a serious illness to bleed over into the subject of health. it is not going to damage hillary clinton to the point that she would lose or anything close to it. it is, however, continuing concern that frankly will dog her right into office if she is elected president. i hope, i think everybody hopes that she has learned something from this event. she wanted to serve a little extra privacy. look at the trouble she has caused herself with this private server, and as i say, there a

know why those particular -- >> so you don't like the -- >> with me now to talk about this is larry sabatoy of virginia. john av lan, cnn political analyst and editor and chief of the daily beast. and cnn media correspondent brian stelter. welcome to all of you. i have to clear my throat here. good morning. brian, did donald trump get a letter from the nfl complaining about the debate schedule? >> the nfl says there was no letter sent. the trump campaign walked that back on sunday, saying it was actually a source close to the league that told trump been this calendar conflict. the reality is, you look at the calendar, they could have known many months ago this was the case. these dates were set last year. the commissioner has a very hard job. they have to juggle sporting events and religious holidays and venues. they came up with the best dates they could. carol they're saying clearly they're not look at changing the debates even though trump would like different dates for them. >> but larry, isn't it reasonable to think that you don't want to schedule a debate, you know, alongside a footb

and larry sabato, the center of politics at the university of virginia. welcome.dward, usa today is calling for mrs. clinton to shutter the foundation, asserting if she doesn't, quote, she boosts trump's presidential campaign and if she is elected, opens herself up to the same kind of pay to play charges that she was subject to as secretary of state. so edward, why don't the clintons just give it up? >> i think it is important to keep in mind what the clinton foundation is and what its mission is. it is a humanitarian, trying to spread aides, and to reduce the cost of malaria prevention, you shutter the prospect of ending things like that in developing nations. that's important to keep in mind. whether or not that -- >> couldn't the clinton foundation just transer over to something like the gates foundation and let them handle it during the duration of her presidency if she is elected. >> so that's a different question now. you said should it happen should she should it down right away. as to what happens between now and the election, i don't think it should be sh

larry sabato, senator of politics at the university of virginia and sally cohen and hillary clinton supporter. welcome to all of you. boris, i want to start with you. the "wall street journal" says donald trump is not running a competent campaign. is that mr. trump's fault? if that's indeed true. >> that's incorrect. the campaign is absolutely competent. we just heard about this speech will be put out today. that's what americans care about. isis or its pred -- >> it is a murdock owned paper. get it together, or get out. >> every editorial board has the right to their opinion and that's an opinion piece. the campaign is absolutely come tent. fighting radical islam terrorism. that's what donald trump will talk about in ohio and that's what americans care about. >> tara, can mr. trump stay on message and -- >> well, he hasn't thus far. if he were running a competent campaign, he wouldn't be hemorrhaging support even from republicans. he wouldn't be competitive or losing in traditionally red states, like georgia, arizona, kansas is now potentially in play for goodness sake. he has lost ground th

. >> larry sabato next from white house to your house what each candidate's plans means for those buyingill leave with yyearnin. >> stay with us ♪ i got my mind-set on you, about i got my mind set on you ♪ p?p?h ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. maria: many fugitives living in taxpayer funded public housing the story and headlines. cheryl: this is something 100 found living in a federally funded homes in 2012, and this is just one region of the country, thedale caller says this is according to unpublished department of housing urban development inspector general's report. now for you years polarity hud don't know what happened to fugitives how many are still living, in taxpayer funded public housing but raised a lot of questions about the use of taxpayer money we will keep you posted. >> well another headlined this morning passengers flying to

larry sabato at the center of politics at the university of virginia. orado. what's happening there and will that go to hillary clinton, do you think? >> yeah. i think that one is very likely to go to clinton not just because of this particular poll. we've seen now for probably about four months, a pretty strong trend to the democrats there. it's happening in the senate race, to the just the presidential race. some of it is the groth of the hispanic vote. some of it is in migration to colorado. they're a combination of factors but if i were in the trump campaign i wouldn't be spending all that much money and time on colorado. >> here from our notes from producers we have six states you predicting will decide the election p pennsylvania, ohio, north carolina, florida, iowa and nevada. why those half dozenen. >> >> well, because we wanted a break from some of the ones we've been talking about a little too frequently like florida and ohio and pennsylvania. i wanted to look at some of the other states. you know, when you combine some of these states you get

he's spending quite a bit of time in virginia which if you listen to larry sabato, he thinks it's crazystate. what do you think of the trump strategy right now? is it working? >> well, look, i think that we're not going to see the real focus of this campaign until after labor day. a lot of people are so worried because the polls in the middle of august are not showing up well. i think he's had a terrific week. i think everything from the way that the staff changes have been perceived, but most importantly, he's delivered some very substantive, powerful messages that i think resonate with people all over the political spectrum, to minorities, to women. it's been a terrific week to donald trump and hillary's had a bad week. first of all, if you want to see hillary clinton, you've got to look for her picture on a milk carton because she's missing in action. we don't know where she is. she's taken the week of o. we don't know where she is. we know where she isn't. she's not on the campaign trail. she's not answering press questions. this campaign will gear up after labor day when people sta