earlier i spoke to larry sabato.e university of virginia. welcome, larry sabato. good to have you with us. now, we are entering 2018, and the democrats i talk to are already saying we're going to pick up the house and probably the senate next november. is their optimism warranted? >> they're on a sugar high -- [laughter] after doug jones' win in alabama and also ralph northam's big win in virginia. but, you know, a lot can happen in ten months. we all know)pá. so i'm going to wait and see. i think democrats certainly will pick up seats. it's a midterm election. paul: right. and that normally means the opposition party picks up seats. but when you're looking at the head to head polling right now, democrats have something like an 8-10 point advantage in the polling number of who should run congress. that's a big advantage. they also have a 10-point advantage in enthusiasm with their voters versus republicans. that usually means big pick-ups. >> yes, if that holds. if that holds, they will win the house, and they might

discuss, douglas brinkley, a presidential historian and history professor at rice university and larry sabatoector of the center for politics at the university of virginia. larry, he's getting lots done, but without popular support. can that continue? >> i doubt it. look how difficult it was to get that tax bill passed. and he never could get obamacare repealed. i know about the individual mandate being abolished, but that's not the same thing as abolishing obamacare. this is with a new presidency usually coming with some kind of honeymoon. republican majority in both houses, i grant you thin majority in the senate. but still most majority, gate a great deal done. while certainly trump has accomplished some things, i agree with you on the judiciary, he could have accomplished a great deal more if he were a different kind of president i don't know about being the most consequential. but i'll tell you this, he's the most different president in the modern era. >> i think everybody could agree on that including the president. douglas brinkley, there's a lot to be said for that which takes place t

him would be in washington, given the housing market there, he should rent, and not buy. >> jon: larry sabato, university of virginia center for politics. he may call you for more real estate advice. we'll see. thanks, larry. >> julie: we're getting a look at what's in the republican tax bill. we'll let you know how the house and senate plan to work on this and how it will impact you coming up next and crews making progress on the thomas fire in southern california. how much destruction has this monster caused so far? >> i built that house 35 years ago. it is solid adobe. we built it knowing someday a fire would come. >> jon: crews are making progress on the largest fire burning in southern california. right now mandatory evacuations still in place as crews battle the thomas fire. it has burned more than 238,000 acres so far. hundreds of homes in ventura and santa barbara counties destroyed. firefighters are making some inroads on it. this morning the thomas fire said to be 30% contained. >> julie: breaking now on the outcome of the alabama senate race with a look at how the press covered it

doctor larry sabato is director of the centre for politics at the university of virginia.am from charlottesville. thanks forjoining us. can restart with the tax bill, tax cuts. trump is not the side are saying they are. what is your view, will people benefit or is itjust for bigger companies and republican supporters? the biggest beneficiaries actually donald trump and the republican party generally. they finally have a victory, they won everything in november 20 16th and this is actually the first piece of total legislation they have been able to get done. it's not quite down but essentially done. however, once people have a chance to analyse what's in it, i suspect that a lot of the middle—class and lower middle—class blue collar support that backed donald trump would be terribly happy because the vast majority of benefits go to the wealthy, corporations and the republican donal class. the big this about the big tax cuts, it's always said that if you get the tax rates right, if you cut them back, the tax reve nu es right, if you cut them back, the tax revenues rise. is t

thank you so much, larry sabato at the university of virginia from charlottesville.avid: let's get a check on where markets stand her julie hyman is here with the latest. a bit of a mixed picture. the nasdaq has been the weakest of the three major averages. it keeps bouncing between gains and losses even as the s&p and nasdaq trade at record highs. we still see some investors watching what is going on in washington. not just the outcome of the tax bill, if and when it gets passed. but also any kind of spending plan. we continue to monitor that. we're taking a look at the bloomberg, we will stay here and look at the bloomberg and see the big gains we have seen. this shows the s&p 500's gains. up over the passover years. on the bottom, volatility over the past month. it is an indication of correlation. as stocks continue to go higher, realized volatility has gone lower. which would imply theoretically that this would be a good environment for folks who are stock pickers. that -- we will see if that ends up being the case. speaking of stockpicking, it looks like people

larry sabato, how are you doing, sir? it has been some time. welcome back here.go ahead and handicap it. where do you think the race stands as of this hour? >> the fox poll had jones up 10. another poll released at the same time had moore up 9. a third poll came out the same day that had it in between those two numbers. it is december 12th. we aren't used to having elections right before christmas, two weeks before christmas. i don't think the people of alabama are, either. nobody knows what the turnout pattern is going to be, which will determine this race. how many people vote, where they are from. i noted just about everybody has learned from november 2016, every single ratings agency, including mine, has this race as a toss-up. we aren't about to change it until the votes come in. >> bill: i got you. playing a safe card, aren't you? probably smart. when you analyze special elections, right, the turnout can be whacky, it can be quirky. you don't really know who is going to vote and who will not. it might be a low turnout or a substantial turnout based on the a

. >> jon: larry sabato has his crystal ball for 2018. seems to think democrats will have trouble in trying to recapture the senate. here's what larry had to say. >> i think the senate leans republican in november, simply because of this. you have 26 democratic seats coming up, including ten of them in states president trump carried. you have only eight republican seats. only eight seats for the republicans to defend. that gives the republicans a big edge there. am i saying they can't blow it? of course they can blow it. but starting out, starting out, they've got a big edge. >> jon: what about the senate, al? what do you think in 2018? >> well, certainly, i hope they do blow it, jon. look what happened in alabama. who would have imagined a democratic senate pickup there. we have chances with bob corker retiring, arizona. i do think it is stacked against the democrats as larry said because democrats have to defend so many seats in states that president trump won. >> jon: ten seats in states that trump won. >> right. >> jon: five of them st

. >> i'm joined by larry sabato of university of virginia center for politics and james peterson at lehighd host of the podcast the remix and a msnbc contributor. james peterson, remix the facts for us. do you think this trump exhaustion actually can win people over? >> i mean, it's clearly that's part of what took place in alabama, ari, that, you know, folks are exhausted with the chaotic sort of coverage of the trump presidency. but also, the chaotic actions of this administration. that's everything from the russia investigation to the ways in which he interacts with the media, to the ways in which he tries to generate and or create policy. we have to remember that part of the big story in alabama is african-americans coming out to vote. so it's actually both of those things that i think are really, really important for 2018 midterm election that is there's a base and men and women, a combination of that paired with trying to appeal to folk who is are absolutely exhausted. w the trump administration at this time. >> larry? >> look. alabama was an extreme case because of an extreme candid

for more on this i can speak to dr larry sabato, who is the director at the center for politics at thet is good to see you, thanks for being with us. for many republicans, roy moore was a flawed candidate. they stayed at home, a lot of republican voters while african—americans republican voters while african—america ns turned out republican voters while african—americans turned out in greater numbers than they did when electing barack greater numbers than they did when electing ba rack 0bama. greater numbers than they did when electing barack 0bama. this was a perfect storm for the democrats?m was, but it is also true that democrats are staunchly anti—trump and the percentage of americans now that strongly disapprove of trump's presidency is twice as large as a group of americans that strongly approve. with numbers like this and trump hita approve. with numbers like this and trump hit a 32% load job approval. it is true the democrats will do well next year, we don't know how well. the house is in play and the senate is in play? the house is definitely in play. democrats are now 50—50 o

larry sabato peers into crystal ball predictions. line up to support the president.name. message for house speaker paul ryan go to hell. this morning franklin graham is getting involved and i would say probably has a different. look, my name is first. there you go. ♪ whoooo. looking for a hotel that fits... ...your budget? tripadvisor now searches over... ...200 sites to find you the... ...hotel you want at the lowest price. grazi, gino! find a price that fits. tripadvisor. what is this? when we love someone, we want to do right by them. but some things we can't control like snoring. (snoring) introducing theravent anti-snore strips. clinically shown to reduce snoring. theravent. the answer is right under your nose. leland: look like in 018. here with his predictions for the new year, the director of the center of politics at the university of virginia and the super glued back together crystal ball larry sabato. good to see you my friend. truism always in the mid terms after a new party his party loses seats. does that hold true in 2018. >> yes, it does. you can take

larry sabato university of virginia >> much more to do you are watching "power lunch. hey.re to fix the elevator. nothing's wrong with the elevator. right. but you want to fix it. right. so who sent you? new guy. what new guy? watson. my analysis of sensor and maintenance data indicates elevator 3 will malfunction in 2 days. there you go. you still need a pass. there you go. so how old do you want uhh, i was thinking around 70. alright, and before that? you mean after that? no, i'm talking before that. do you have things you want to do before you retire? oh yeah sure... ok, like what? but i thought we were supposed to be talking about investing for retirement? we're absolutely doing that. but there's no law you can't make the most of today. what do you want to do? i'd really like to run with the bulls. wow. yea. hope you're fast. i am. get a portfolio that works for you now and as your needs change. investment management services from td ameritrade. >>> the dow is staging a big come back after the abc news of michael flynn. joining us with o'neill security, gordon, what do

leland: larry sabato was on a couple days ago the airlines will have to add more flights into iowa someocrats who want to run for president. with that jillian here with some headlines. pete: good morning, jillian. jillian: good friday morning. we do have breaking news, guys. get you caught up with a fox news alert. two gunman storm a church in egypt killing two cops. it happened hours ago south of cairo during morning prayers. one of the gunmen shot dead. according to statewide media manhunt on for the other. no word yet who is responsible. isis has killed dozens of christians in church bombings and christians in egypt this past year including twin bombings on palm sunday. flames swept through an apartment building in new york city. people rushing out of their homes into below freezing temperatures to escape the inferno. >> trying to get down on their own, that's how fast it was moving. screaming and that's how he knew it was trouble because people were screaming fire, help. fire, help. we knew it was trouble. >> more than 130 firefighters worked for hours to get the flames under contro

sabato from the university of virginia center for politics. and the former economic policy adviser to vice president joe biden joins me. larrylet's talk about the president's approval rating. how concerned should republicans in general be as they go into this midterm year? how worried should they be about the low marks even after this big win on tax reform? >> they should be very concerned. it's one of the best indicators. only one, but it is a good indicator of what will happen in the midterm elections. it's always possible that trump's ratings will go up, though i have to note he's the first president since polls were taken never to have been over 50% on a single day, including his inauguration day. he's never had majority support. you can cite, as he did, the rasmussen poll all you want to, but the polling averages are better and you were correct to say the polling average is at 38%, not 46%. so i think republicans should be concerned for that reason and quite a number of others. >> jerod, let's talk about taxes and that "new york times" interview that the president did there at mar-a-lago. he said in part, quote, i know