. >> joining us from the university of virginia is center of politics director larry sabato. welcome to washington journal. guest: it is nice to be with you on halloween. host: we talk about the upcoming virginia governor's election tuesday. elections are happening nationwide but there is a lot of focus on the virginia race. the associated press is finding it as a post-trump test for democrats in virginia. how do you see the race on this halloween morning larry sabato question arc guest: it is close and competitive. both sides have different interpretation of what numbers we have from early voting. each side thinks they are winning. that is usually the case with campaigns. host: a front-page headline on the washington post this morning. dead heat on contest for governor. what about this race strikes you as different from any other race you have seen in virginia politics? any other governor's race in virginia politics? guest: well, it is only the second time that the former governor has run for another term. as you know, virginia is the last state in the union that limits the

you are on with larry sabato. hi, i guess some of my questions have been answered by a previous caller but basically is mcauliffe and youngkin neck and neck? how can we be sure of election integrity? are they going to come up with a bunch of mail-in ballots after the polls have closed? guest: i am really glad that she asked that question and here is why. my main focus is national elections but i have lived in virginia for decades and i have followed and analyzed virginia elections as well. i am here to tell you, as somebody who analyzes votes, and who has followed the virginia elections closely in every way that it's possible to follow them, i am proud to say that virginia, my home state, has a safe and secure election system. there is not the slightest evidence of fraud. we have had a number of recounts where candidates, national or state candidates, have been separated by dozens or just a few hundred ballots out of millions cast, and we found almost no change when every single ballot was examined. so i am simply

>> well first of all i agree with larry sabato that youngkin's book ad may help with her now. but i think it's going to help -- glenn youngkin is closing his campaign the way he might imagine in 1966 this is virginia of 2021. but there is no doubt that this democrats being able to celebrate a big legislative package they will have concrete results are people in virginia, would be helpful there is no question about that but i agree with larry turnout is key here. now the polls show republicans -- when you look at the early vote numbers i think it's less presence there. but at the end of the day it's going to be a close race and i think even if terry mcauliffe wins they will have to step back and say we won virginia by ten we're not gonna win by ten again even if he wins, some of that you need in virginia bow app and with swing voters this surround base and you've got a year to basically try and fix that, there is no doubt if you have two major pieces of legislation that you can do storytelling in every town in america every family in america. that is most important subsequent t

. >> joining us from the university of virginia is center of politics director larry sabato.come to washington journal. guest: it is nice to be with you on halloween. host: we talk about the upcoming virginia governor's election tuesday.

joining me now, larry sabato, the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. larry, good evening to you. look, the big national race. what does larry have to say? this one is very important, and it could foretell what's to come for the midterms and also for 2024. so i know you don't have a crystal ball, but what are the polls saying to you? >> well, they're saying that terry mcauliffe's lead from earlier in the summer and even spring has essentially disappeared. it's a tie. it's been a tie in several different polls over the last week, and there's another major poll coming out tomorrow morning that shows it dead even. so i have to -- if it were just one poll, i'd question the poll. but the fact is there have been so many polls saying this, and it's easy to see why, don. president biden's ratings have sunk everywhere, even in virginia, which gave him a ten-point victory in 2020. the democrats in congress, frankly, i think deserve more of the blame than president biden. this has been a clown car, and they just can't stop commenting publicly and parading by the ca

do you understand -- listen, i had larry sabato last night and he said the democrats as a whole, meaning in washington, didn't understand how this is being perceived around the country and that the sort of nitpicking and infighting wasn't helping, especially virginia, not helping the midterm, not helping other folks who may be up for election, and that the democrats don't see the big picture. they don't see the forest for the trees. do you understand what he is saying? do you agree with that? >> i agree that the infighting hasn't helped, but the forest here are the american people. are we going to actually get them child care? are we going to actually get universal preschool? are we actually going to get seniors the dental, the vision, the hearing that we've promised? so we're not going to say, okay, we're not going to have any fights, but we're just going to forsake the american people and forget our campaign promises. but i agree the time has come to compromise, get it done and deliver on as much of the agenda as we can. >> so congress -- speaker nancy pelosi met with progressive caucu

joining me now to discuss, larry sabato, the director of the center for politics at the university of and mark mckinnon, the former adviser to jpmorgan w. bush and john mccain. he's the executive producer of "the circus." look, one of my favorite people's here. >> flip a coin. >> i'm kidding, guys. good to see both of you. glad to have you on a friday night. larry, i'm going to start with you in virginia. you know it like the back of your hand. just days from the election, a new "washington post" poll has youngkin and mcauliffe in a tight race. come tuesday, what do you expect? >> i expect it to be close and competitive and tight just like that is. i have to tell you, you often look, and mark has seen this so many times, you look to campaigns themselves to see what their mood is. you can read some things into it. maybe inaccurately. the republicans here are just through the roof with excitement. and the crowds are large for youngkin. they feel like they're finally on the verge of victory after losing everything for a decade. the democrats are tense. they're nervous. they can't believe

. >> outfront now, larry sabato, the founder and director of the university of virginia center for politics by the harvard political review as the number one predictor for the 2020 presidential election. so, larry, i -- i always love talking to you and i want to just preface this conversation for our viewers so they know you live in virginia. you work in virginia. so you may know the national situation. but in virginia, you know, you -- you know it. you're living it. so how big of a gap was this for terry mcauliffe? >> it was a -- erin, he shouldn't have said it. i'm sure he wishes he hadn't. and when candidates make a gaffe, they have to quickly pivot and work around it which is what mcauliffe is trying to do. but it has to be said, both candidates have been gaffes on the youngkin side, i think it's pretty clear they involved donald trump. he's been trying to edge away from trump even though in the beginning he said he was in the race because of donald trump. and donald trump's ideas. so, both candidates have a burden to bear. >> so, um, you know, as you -- as you get closer and closer to