david: double-digit according to larry shover. hines i love that description for what goes on in% d.c. larry, have a wonderful new year. thank you very much. >> you too. cheryl: thank you, larry. oil prices rebounded this year, climbing 7.2%, posting the fourth annual gain in five years. with global demand rising next year will oil prices continue to climb? david: that is the big question, joining us john laforge, ned davis research analyst. thank you for coming in, john. we're coming to the end of a price cycle for oil. for the past 16 years it has sort of been trending upwards. there have been some dips. 17 years cycle for oil prices. cominging to the edge of a precipice where we're going to see a decline in oil prices for 2014? >> well, good afternoon. i don't know if it's a precipice. i would definitely put it at a dead zone. i think what we're going to find in the next 12 to 18 months oil effectively goes flat and finally all the oil production in the u.s. will start impacting price. i think what we'll do, we'll find ourselves

let's head back to larry shover in the pits of the cme. hey, larry. >> hey. are looking towards 2014. let's face it. what are the headwinds? well consumer confidence jumped back, get us out of this economic rut that we're in. this anemic recovery that we've had. how about a yellen-led fed. normalization of monetary policy, we're worried about that. what will drive u.s. interest rates? that has a lot to do with the stock market. lastly, most importantly, will profits especially in the s&p 500, start to catch up? we've seen statingnant for the last two or three quarters. that is what is on traders minds. they're checked out, waiting for 2014. liz: i didn't think earnings were that bad. i mean, tough to keep up -- >> they could be better. you're right. liz: sound like many of our moms. many of our moms. your grades could be better. >> and they will be better. liz: good to see you, larry. david: while, gm, ford and chrysler had great sales numbers in november announced today the company stocks were down about 3%, a little less than that today. so what's going on?

he is back with three more ways to play the market and larry shover in the pits of. larry, start with you. not a lot of volatility which was nice to see but we continue to wait on the fed or has that storyline passed and you're watching something else. >> a lot of thingswell. a jittery day with a lot million headlines and a ton of apparent reasons for every move in the stock market right now. right now we've seen a general uptick in hedging and risk off action. a lot might be the fed. some might be year-end squaring of positions. when it comes to tapering traders behind me are realizing it is not that big of an overhang. if it was we wouldn't see gold, treasurys and homebuilders do so well today. at the end of the day a lot of consolidation, a lot of confusion. david: people taking their eyes off the fed, looking at other things like new regulations. tom karsten, whole new group of banking regulations as part of the volcker rule. started out as something simple. typical of washington. it is a thousand pages a bunch of legal gobbledygook inside of the thing yet banking

larry shover of sfg alternatives joins us on the show now for some trader talk from cme group. good morning larry. > >good morning. > >what tapering trends are you noticing in the market right now as we prepare for that fomc meeting coming up next week? > >at least yesterday, with all the tapering fear we're getting from the headlines, we had 3 asset classes actually respond in a way that they shouldn't respond if people are worried about tapering. that would be gold, u.s. treasury, and homebuilding stocks. all of them rallied quite significantly yesterday. > >oil is bouncing. does that mean the oil market is telling us that the economy is getting better and there will be more demand? or is it something else? > >i think that's part of the story.i think they are looking for the eia inventory report this week to have 2 consecutive drawdowns. that supercongestion issue in oklahoma is going away. pipelines are starting to move that oil. so the economy is getting better and it's being able to be refined. > >my colleague chuck coppola will be along in just a minute to talk about the v

larry shover of sfg alternatives joins us now for a closer look at today's trading action. good morning to you larry. > >good morning. > >the market is now in a steep slide. how are traders reading that? > >differently than they were before. i think it was prerogative for traders to think that we're just gonna rally because every december we do that. but on the other hand, traders also are recognizing that we have had 8 consecutive weeks on the upside. so maybe just some healthy consolidation is in order here. > >how much of this has to do with the possibility of the fed tapering? we had that big jobs number everybody's focused on. what do you think is happening? > >i don't think a whole lot has to do with tapering. right now people understand that tapering isn't tightening. and the market has priced in the fact that we're going to taper. whether it's december, january, or march. i think it makes little difference to the equity markets. > >what about the underperformers? a lot of traders are trying to find those stocks that have not participated in this superhot rally. > >ye

we're here to talk about it with larry shover, fsg chief investment officer who is here to tell us what he thinks the fed will tell us tomorrow and how the markets will react. mark shell lady in the pits of cm he. scott, looks like the market was flat, to slightly lower, no real direction. at love jumping up and down across the flat line but where do you see any kind ever sentiment that indicates what might happen tomorrow? >> liz, that is the best question out there, liz. you know what? i think we'll not get a taper announcement tomorrow. but what i think should happen i think with all the fed's talk about forward guidance, they should give us some forward guidance on a taper. how about this? let's taper july 1st as long as we keep seeing numbers go our way. if they start to go south we reserve the right to push the taper off. i think having spoken to a lost guys in the pit and in the market the best thing the fed could do tomorrow is give us some guidance about the taper. the market clearly is in a little bit of defensive mode. they don't know what to expect tomorrow but i still say w