well, on that note, larry summers, a real pleasure having you on my show.heck in with you soon. thank you. you know, the aviation industry, it's big business for the global economy. but as we all know, it was brought to its knees during the pandemic. but now it's been bouncing back and looking to use new technology to make for a smoother, safer travelling experience. the world's leading specialist in air transport communications and it is called sita. it's a multi—billion dollar company owned by carriers with customers across the globe. in fact, this company covers around 90% of the world's airline business. and i've been catching up with its big boss. david lavorel, a real pleasure having you on my show. thanks forjoining me and david, we'll get into the details shortly. but let's start with this, just for the uninitiated, just explain in a nutshell, what does sita do? so sita, we are an it company and we are in essence the invisible hand, technology hands, that support the air transport. so when you check in, when you board an aircraft, when you go throug

i think larry summers is making a good point. he's been very measured throughout this as its been playing out and saying we need to get a grip on it or we head into recession and now we seem to be at the tipping point. it seems to me that the fed has no other choice than to continue raising rates to try to do something, some are saying better late than never. others are saying we should have never been in this position for the first place. >> yeah, i agree, jackie. thanks for having me on. larry summers continues to be an interesting interview because he's saying the truth and it's somewhat inconvenient to the biden white house but the reality is we're either in a recession which i believe or we're about to be heading into one particularly as the rates work itself through the economy, particularly as you have a lot of firms that are now adjusting to the fact that they are not getting incentives from the fed to go chase yields and have zombie firms loaded up with debt and those firms shed workers. those are the kinds of thins that

i'm going to bring in kit and larry summers, larry summers had this to say about a doom loop. y: we get amused when we don't live there by some of the things that are happening in britain, but if we think of it as an experience entirely outside of any kinds of concerns other countries could have, that would be a real mistake. manus: the folly of thinking what happened in the u.k. is not a lesson to everybody else. larry summers there on the lessons for global policymakers. kit jukes, bringing you into the conversation. cole is not mentally long the dollar, there is a new one for you. we talked about nearly the end of this extraordinary dollar run. larry is warning about what happened here is a lesson for other countries on their fiscal largess. are you worried at all at any level about the fiscal largess of the u.s.? kit: not yet. the u.s. is special in that regard and the rest of us have to put up with it they can sell treasuries in large quantities good i would worry more about -- in large quantities. i would worry more about the treasury market. here, we had the ldr crisis.

let's discuss this and more with the former treasury secretary, larry summers. uch for joining us. how do you think the federal reserve looks at today's numbers on jobless claims as it tries to get a handle on rampant inflation here in the united states? is the risk the fed potentially could overcorrect? >> look, the fed's got a hard job. all of us have had the experience of taking a shower in some old hotel where there's a long lag between when you turn the faucet and when the temperature of the water changes. and when you're in that situation you turn the faucet and you turn the faucet and nothing happens and then all of a sudden you scalded yourself. and so it's a hard control, any system when your steering wheel is operating with a lag. so certainly anything's possible with the fed. i think the best chance that the fed has of maximizing employment through time is being firm and resolute and realistic about inflation. i think it's taken them quite a long time to get there. but i think that's where they are right now. and chairman powell is making clear his com

larry summers.y summers on talking business with aaron heslehurst. the times are on your screen now. now let's change the rhythm for our final story. the uk live music scene has had a tough couple of years, with the pandemic hitting touring and music venues hard. the live music business is estimated to employ 30,000 people in the uk and has been looking to get its groove back. but the industry may face more hardship, with music venue trust warning the energy crisis could force temporary or permanent closures for music venues in the uk. joining me now is mark davyd, who's the ceo of music venue trust. this is really worrying. what are you looking at in terms of the outcome for live music? we have a range — the outcome for live music? - have a range of challenging circumstances. obviously, we have tried to come back from the pandemic crisis but this energy prices, you can see this is an intensive energy using sector, lights, sound etc. this particular sector is facing exponentially high energy costs,

jpmorgan's jamie dimon, joins top economists mohammed el-erian and larry summers that the u.s.ill be in an avoidable recession next year. house republicans threaten to call in the fbi director to testify over delays in the hunter biden case. plus we've gotten new wrinkles there. the controversy, paypal, warning users could be penalized for misinformation and twitter flip-flops. it suspends, then restores the florida surgeon general's new health warning about kovacs scenes. new concerning warnses about electric cars, climate activists will not tell you about. i'm elizabeth macdonald. "the evening edit" starts right now. ♪. elizabeth: okay. welcome to the show. let's check your money. stocks again end to the downside, trading volatile on mixed economic data, plus interest rate hike fears. russia pounds ukraine with deadly airstrikes after a major supply bridge to "politico" more than 3/4 say violent crime is a major factor in their midterm vote. we have more on the drive-by shooting outside new york gop gubernatorial candidate lee zeldin home while his daughters were hiding insid

the other thing is the tradition larry summers spoke about.his is the position between fiscal and monetary policy. i think fiscal policy is still way too loose for the position we're in. in europe, it is getting looser in response to high energy prices. that is a condition to be aware of. if fiscal policy continues to listen, then we could see more monetary policy hikes. dani: i can't help but think of the u.k., a shining example of monetary and fiscal policy moving in opposition. if your concern is more global, what does it mean for the u.k.? that tension feels especially acute. christian: we've got this strong tension between fiscal and monetary policy in the u.k. there's not much left of the torah government's -- tory government's aspirations. this collision between fiscal and monetary policy is making things very difficult for the u.k. bond market. and we do need fiscal tightening in the u.k. to prevent a big overshoot of yields. manus: they've had one savage attack on the gilt market, they broke that and trashed sterling. what will imf te

and abc7 sports director larry summers has the highlights. larry. >> former giants skipper dusty baker will he get that elusive world series ring? plus this is a problem. no deebo for the 49ers sunday against the rams. fanduel and draftkings, two out of state corporations making big promises. what's the real math behind prop 27, their ballot measure for online sports betting? 90% of profits go to the out of state corporations permanently. only eight and a half cents is left for the homeless. and in virginia, arizona, and other states, fanduel and draftkings use loopholes to pay far less than was promised. sound familiar? it should. vote no on prop 27. meet leon the third... leon the second... and leon... the first of them all. three generations, who all bank differently with chase. leon's saving up for his first set of wheels... nice try. really? this leon's paying for his paint job on the spot... and this leon, as a chase private client, he's in the south of france, taking out cash with no atm fees. that's because this family of leons has cha

and abc7 sports director larry summers has the highlights. rry. >> former giants skipper dusty baker will he get that elusive world series ring? plus this is a problem. no deebo for the 49ers sunday agains announcer: abc7 sports sponsored by river rock casino. larry: the had thers will be without -- the 49ers will be without deebo samuel against the rams and he will have a lot of company. the niners have been decimated by injuries. on defense, arik armstead has been out for a while. joining him is linebacker drake greenlaw and been playing great. suffered a calf injury last week. so he's a no go for the rams. fullback kyle juszczyk so important in that running game and mangled his finger last week so he can't play. and the biggest loss on the offensive side of the ball, deebo, out with a hamstring injury. the niners with a 3-4 record, jimmy g knows what needs to happen. >> there's a sense of urgency quiet guys. -- with the guys. we have to do this together and no individual will do it on his own. we have to do this as a team. that's what has m

francis, we've heard larry summers raising the alarm on this current economic policy taking us into recessionhe is doubling down on it with this report saying that next week's meetings are the last stop before the economic storm that's about to come. >> i agree. add all of the liquidity and fiscal spending and the record amount added to the balance sheet and when you take that liquidity out of the system, you're not removing the dead obligation and that becomes hone roush and that'll define the soft landing and hard landing and the fed coming out, i agree with charles and this is so interesting and it's getting insight into the fact that these things are trading and so the fed has to make this narrative overly, overly hawkish so that the markets don't anticipate a liquidity-based pivot and tight financial conditions and they really do lose control and that's so fascinating about this and they're talking tough. we've seen waves of liquidity in the bond market, which is a canary in the coal mine and feds don't care about prices and they've proved in the third quarter of '19 and covid they pivot

elizabeth: larry summers. we will play the soundbite la later.ry summers clinton officials say we need supplies now energy independent and now energy insecurity and you look at paris france, paris is running out of gas right now because of refinery strikes. >> i think larry gets it. the administration doesn't and it's all forms of domestic energy produced in the united states. the main problem with the biden energy policy comes down to two things, physics and math. this is based on science and growing energy debate demands globally or cutting global emissions this is based on political science and social engineering other than physics and actual engineering and the can't do the math because the programs they say will help stop climate change will do little to nothing or make climate change worse. elizabeth: biden is turning to venezuela, chevron cannot immediately restart venezuela's damaged oilfield. let's listen to the treasury secretary on supply. >> i agree what happened what opec did was shortsighted because one of the primary goals is to ma

what the mistake was, he was warned by democratic economists like larry summers, don't keep spending money and the fed should ease up on the stimulus. neither one of those things happened and we have 40 your highs, punishing seniors and hard-working families. elizabeth: what you say for democrats, high gas prices hit swing state vote. what you think? >> i was going to add, the congressman is spot on and to add, making the decision to kill energy independence castle oil and a war on fossil fuel. all of these things create this issue of economic and national security and it is the economies duped, voters care about, these social things can be legislated over and over again but when you lose your economic foundation, it's a permit cost to the american people. elizabeth: reports saudi arabia push to cut oil production twice as much as russian president putin asked for. russia looking for 1 million bear a day but they went to 2 million a day. the cost of the democrat party you've got to watch the white house complain they drain the oil reserves and nobody should criticize them. obama offi

larry summers, former secretary treasurer and that's the most notable person to get into it and shoulde increased anxiety of people getting anxious in august of '07 and earthquakes don't come all of a sudden and there's tremors first and most of the time with tremors, they're just tremors and goes away. just not 100% of the time and, you know, the tremor to watch now seems to be liz truss, the prime minister of the uk and her government over there. tax cut plan, markets not receiving it all that well. bank of england intervenes and some have drawn parallels to the french bank, bnp from august of '07 and its funding problems and didn't seem like a huge deal then but they do now. this morning we wake up to the news the uk is backtracking dropping its pledge to cut the rate for top earners over there. this is still a story still playing itself out. the pound went up against the dollar when that news broke today. then credit sweep. that stock is hire in the last little bit. forget any comparison and if anybody was talking this way, no leeman brothers weekend and the idea the bank spent the

but larry summers talks about the anxiety today and anxiety in 2007. of a sudden, tremors go away but not 100% of the time. >> sandra: a warning, to your point, we are supposed to watch it and we are. >> just a tremor for now. >> sandra: and i'm joining us with martha at 3:00. >> john: new at 2:00, california governor newsom signing a bill that could see doctors disciplined for their views on covid-19. he says it will help fight misinformation, but who is to say what that misinformation is? jonathan turley gives his take just ahead. appraisal or termite inspection. no upfront costs at all. let us get your family security of cash in the bank. we're here today to set the record straight about dupuytren's contracture. surgery is not your only treatment option. people may think their contracture has to be severe to be treated, but it doesn't. visit findahandspecialist.com today to get started. >> john: brand-new at 2:00, a rising star rushed to the trauma center after a brutal hit. >> sandra: it's not the play under fire, it's the decision to send him out

now, larry summers, i know larry, does a good job representing his wall street interests.t is time we had a government that stood up for working families. and the questions that we should be asking ourselves is, why do we pay the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs when the pharmaceutical industry makes huge profits? why are we the only major country on earth not to guarantee health care to all people? why do you have half of the elderly people in this country earning less than $25,000 a year and you've got republicans out there who want to cut social security, they want to cut medicare, they want to cut medicaid, so they can give more tax breaks to their billionaire friends. those are the kinds of the issues that we need to be discussing in my view. >> right, but that's my point. i mean, the issues that you feel passionately about, paid family and medical leave, college affordability, home health care, housing child care assistance, you tried to get all those things done. they got cut from the democratic proposal. i mean, there are democrats out there, prog

larry summers, who will share some thoughts about. superabundance. we've invited professor summers not just because one of the most important economists in the world, but also because he can be counted to provide critical comments, some of which we may not agree with, all of which will be useful to in refining our own thinking on, this big issue. larry summers is the president emeritus of harvard university, where he holds professorship still. during the past decades, he's served in a series of senior policy positions, including vice president of economics and chief economist, the world bank, director of the national economic council for the obama and secretary of the treasury of the united states. from 1999 to 2001. i could go on, but we would rather hear directly from professor summers. professor summers, thank you for joining by zoom and welcome back to the cato institute. i'm glad to be with you. i wish you had going on. i was rather enjoying all the nice things that you were saying about me and i was remembering what johnson had said when he was

earlier, i spoke with the former treasury secretary, larry summers, about the oil squeeze and whetherid president biden fail on this specific front? >> look, nobody can be happy about what happened. it's hard to know what would have happened if president biden had not taken that trip . at that time, i thought it was the reasonable thing to do recognizing there was enormous uncertainty as to how it would play out. this is not good news we've gotten from opec. it increases the risks with respect to inflation. it increases the risks with respect to recession. the sense that saudi arabia is in collaboration of some kind with russia can't be a happy one for americans. >> you're right. >> on the other hand, on the other hand, wolf, oil prices did not spike today. they did not spike yesterday. some of that is because people thought something like this was going to happen. some of that was because some of this output contraction is sort of meaningless. people reduce their quotas, but since they weren't producing up to their previous quotas anyway, it didn't really matter when they cut their q

meeting of the world bank kickoff well kicked off yesterday, really, but it's interesting that larry summers continues to attack these policies out of this administration. whether it's the energy or, you know the gasoline prices, not not necessarily the climate change agenda, but the massive spending it's very, very simple. in america. first agenda solves all problems, whether it's energy, economic or the foreign policy issues with with iran place like iran getting a nuclear bomb. america first agenda solves all problems. we have to talk about what's going on in iran. there is incredible stories playing out there. we will get into it, but we'll take a short break when we come back. not so fast. this fast food chain being ranked the slowest drive through in america will tell you what it is when we come right back. thank you. these aren't just shipments their promises. promises of all shapes and sizes. each with a time and a place. they've been promised to be a promises everything to old dominion because it means everything to you. my dental health was not good. i had period donald disease, an

former economic advisor larry summers say a recession is more likely than not in the next 18 months.steve moore. i suppose if you are making that prediction where that forecast, steve comic he would be somebody not in the camp we are already in a recession. by most traditional definitions, couples with three quarters of negative gdp and you are in a recession, which we had. anyway, i digress. there are serious warnings out there nonetheless. >> there are. what i heard goes to economists jamie timon and larry summers, what you think we are living in right now? come on, the last nine months the economy contracted but it does not just the loss of gdp. the average family has lost $4,000 in purchasing power last year. you see $10 trillion of losses in the stock market this year. employers having the hardest time getting people back to work. i could go on with these litany of problems. you have gas prices, sandra, heading back to $4.50, $5 a gallon. we are in a recession right now. maybe a year from now, come on, it is here. >> sandra: you can't blame these restaurants either. they don't w

joined now by larry summers who's also served as director of the white house -- economic council. >>s for joining us. we've been talking a lot about the impact the economy has had on how voters cast their ballot. have you heard anything in policies proposed by republican to democrat that you think would help bring down inflation? >> i don't think anybody's gonna be able to do much. that's gun effect in the short run. i think overtime the federal reserve has very substantial capacity to contain inflation. i think there's some things we can do like promoting the permits for accessing oil, like increasing capacity in pipelines. like making it easier to cite renewables. like taking down terrorists. like adjusting other kinds of regulation that overtime would make our economy a bit more able to supply things. a bit more flexible. and that that would contribute to reducing inflation. but i think the most important thing is the decisions that are going to be made by the federal reserve. and frankly, the unfortunate policy decisions that were made during 2021 and the bad luck we've had with

scarlet: do you agree with larry summers that the u.k. is having like an emerging market and if so, what should be the prescription for that? jose: well, rather than putting a name into a country, what i would say is the markets have become less on fiscal measures with cast a doubt on stability of public finances this is an issue that is associated with emerging markets. in the u.k., this lack of clarity of how the numbers add up without a forecast by the of its of responsibility led to some of the same type of market reactions that you would see in some emerging markets when similar announcements are made. that is where the connection comes. jon: within your own industry, there is a lot to watch these days, the market has been closely monitoring the situation around credit suisse and the strategic review. as you observe but also think about the road ahead, could you see yourself doing a deal with credit suisse tied to any assets? jose: we have our own corporate plan and strategy and we are very busy and plummeting our corporate plan and

. >> neil: larry summers, the former treasury zac for bill clinton said the spending on the part of theion didn't help inflation matters any. of course when we talk about the federal reserve as you know, austin, it complicates their job to sort of mop up all of the securities, treasuries out there right now. and complicate their effort. to you agree with that? that this spending while the president says it boosts economic activity, it also boosted prices? >> well, there's a big dispute about that. all i will say is rather than arguing about 2021 and whether the stimulus led to more inflation in 21 and how much, there was a subtlety in the clip you played there of larry summers in which he said if we had stimulus, which pushed up inflation, but now the stimulus runs off and that is the thing that is dominating now. the fiscal withdrawal. so if you look at government spending, it's actually shrinking rapidly and that is cutting off the growth rate as opposed to the opposite. >> neil: in other words, the deficits are coming down. they were at very high levels with the covid and all that. i

larry summers is right, you know? this is no, you know, right-leaning conspiracy theorist by my measure. >> someone who just believes in good policy and understands that joe biden is hitting the average day, every middle class american family with these policies. >> 57% of americans say the same. >> you are so right. all right. coming up, a democratic -- democrat operatives are punching to push their left-leaning message, their new, sneaky attempts to influence our vote. that's coming up next. how interesting. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ discover sound that can truly move you in the 2022 grand wagoneer. awarded best driver appeal by j.d. power. muck you got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em -- ♪ know when to walk away, know when to run ♪ >> welcome back to "the big saturday show." democrat operatives reportedly launching a new machine to sway voters in battleground states like pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin. according to axios, here's the strategy for dozens of these left-leaning media outlets. quote, each follows a s

i disagree with larry summers. we have to move way ahead of the rate of inflation, which by the way is much less than the year over year or official statistics actually show. over the last 20 years we've had a tremendous decline of real interest rates around the world and in the u.s so a particular interest rate is much tighter today than it would have been back in 1980 or even 2000 so i think we're in a very tight moment now i'd give them another 50 basis points, if they do 75, 75 and then move into 2023 they're going to go overboard. >> i have a lot of sympathy with what the professor is saying what i'm trying to do is think about a way that the federal reservists policy makers can systematize the essence of what he's saying, which is to recognize for example the rent numbers are badly lagging, using commodity prices i'd be a little bit careful using money supply because that gave a very false signal in 2008 maybe the professor wants to come forward and tell us how we can use that that was something greenspan rej

former treasury secretary larry summers agrees. he said it doesn't tend to fade quickly.eanwhile, almost one third compared jay powell to a pull vaulter, over concern about how he will go in raising interest rates. whatever his event, endurance will be a big theme, as they need to decide on the next step. the fed is waiting to see evidence that its series of hikes since march 2022 will weaken demand, reducing spending, in order to slow down price increases. for now, most investors are choosing not to make any big bets in stocks or treasuries. even as they see the dollar trading higher, in anticipation that jay powell be running laps for a while. jon: let's get some more insight on where the markets could go from here, as u.s. stocks have been trimming some of those october gains ahead of this week's fed decision. joining us now is lisa shalett, chief investment officer for morgan stanley wealth management. you have a view on what kind of track performer jay powell would be if you were to get onto the track and field sphere? >> i think jay powell is running from behind, as

i know larry summers said that. there are economists who have said other things.the bill we passed kept 30,000 people in coloradanings -- coloradans from being evicted i think it has funded law enforcement all over the state. mental health services that we desperately need. it hut childhood poverty in half last year because of a bill i wrote. i'm concerned that the federal reserve kept the interest rates at zero too long and their quantitative easing was too impressive. but that's looking in the re-view miro. but what we need to do now is fix the issue. i think we can by bringing our supply chains back to the united states, by making sure that we are benefiting from the inflation reduction act in the sense that we are leading the world in the transition from fossil fuels over the next 25 years to a net zero energy economy. the united states is perfectly positioned to do that now. we are in a place now where, unlike before we passed that bill where we can reduce costs, where we can increase our energy independence and our economic strength and reduce emissions whil

treasurer larry summers. our next guest is looking at bonds as alternatives.t's the division director of look korea wealth management. when you look at the jobs numbers from friday and we have cpi, you wonder if it's going to change what the fed is committed to doing, does it heal like they are finally getting it? >> different markets are taking into account what we are seeing. i think there is a hope that they wish we will see the peak of these rate rises soon but it told chair -- until the narrative starts changing, it's way too early to anticipate. the market has slowed considerably in the last number of weeks and we had the bare rally. at the end of the day, we have to wait for indications from the that and other central banks around the world before we can be more confident. haidi: in the absence of a meaningful policy change, how are you maneuvering in these markets? a lot of people still like energy. you are looking at alternative asset classes altogether. martin: we have been checking out our portfolios for some time, shifting more toward sovereign deb

we also have larry summers talking about no way of a soft landing with the principal reserve raising rates -- federal reserve raising rates the way they are. and this week we saw the 10-year hit 4% which was one of the biggest moves that we've seen in a long time at 4% on the 10-year. it ended the week off of that but, troy, what does that mean when you see the benchmark, the rate that is the benchmark for mortgages and borrowing hit a level of 4%? >> yeah. so, basically, remember, what the federal reserve wants here is tighter financial conditions, higher yields, lower valuations for equities and now lower valuations for real estate. so basically, people forget about what a huge tailwind it's been for all assets as we've had lower and lower interest rates really since the volcker era, but particularly, you know, since the early '90s. so as rates go higher, it's almost inevitable that we have more multiple complexion presentation -- compression. and the probability of a recession is so much higher now than we're more than likely going to have another leg down driven by cut equity ear

harvard political -- professor larry summers warned that the almost $2 trillion stimulus plan was three times as large as the projected shortfall. he said policymakers need to ensure they have plans in place to address the possible and quite serious problem of inflation. instead of taking time to analyze the impact that additional government spending would have on inflation the biden administration continues to pump money into the economy and inflation continues to worsen. september 13, 2020 when the august numbers were released showing a .3% -- 8.3% inflation. biden hosted a party for the inflation reduction act. in just a few days later on cbs president biden told the american people that inflation was increased by just an inch. if the white house thinks this is what we need to raise -- measure inflation by, the american people think this is what we need to measure inflation by. president biden with an attitude toward the american people's suffering is acceptable we are working to conduct real oversight, the house republicans on this community -- committee we have written multiple let

treasury secretary, larry summers speaking on wall street week. saying we are living through elevated risks. there is this moment where we are seeing this in east anxiety. >> absolutely. the last 15 years or so, when you had a down year economically, you have a look at this forecast moving forward. since we are talking about 2007 or 2008, 2009, the story is quiet swift. you look at credit default swaps on the bank and you see them having to come out and basically calm the nerves of this market, the stocks basically collapsed. we are talking $10 billion as far as the market cap is concerned. we will get to the nitty-gritty of this in just a moment but what will the restructuring look like? when they will be laying at those plans. it echoes what happened with deutsche bank. we will have a look at this very closely. we are still talking about the u.s. bond market. >> not over yet. it seems we are bracing for more ups and downs ahead of what could reframe that outlook. let's get some more from debbie reynolds. >> there are extreme levels of strain we

>> i put forward with larry summers a rough rule of thumb that you should focus on real debt service and wanted to be below two percent of gdp and not trending up rapidly. we are much closer to hitting that warning sign now than we were when we first wrote to that paper. that is because debbie has gone up. --debt has gone up. what do we forecast real interest rates to be a decade from now? interest rates were low three years ago because of the quality and productivity. none of that has changed. we have somewhat more debt and that will drive interest rates up some. once we get through this episode, real interest rates will come down. i have a certain amount of sympathy for that view, but i have nervousness. its not just that interest rates today are high, if you look at what they interest rates will be a decade from now, that is also quite high. it is quite higher than where real interests rates are right now. at this .2 years ago, --at this point two years ago, we could argue about taxes and benefits and that was sufficient and we could take our time doing it. now i would say sooner

let's listen to larry summers, former treasury secretary, who has been pounding the table for the fed to keep raising rates until it meets that objective. larry: i think it is a real mistake to suggest that somehow we shouldn't do the monetary policies that are necessary to avoid inflation becoming entrenched because of concerns about financial stability. kathleen: is not just the fed, it is the ecb, it is the bank of england. rbnz last week, they did a faith the -- they did a 50 basis point hike. you have china and japan, they will not do anything, and the rba notable last week as well, they did 25 instead of 50. a handful are not being so aggressive but many others are on that path. haidi: certainly, not doing anything when it comes to following the rest of the pack, but the pboc could be doing more. even as we get this drumbeat into the last week as we get into the party congress meeting, where we assume we get a third term for president xi jinping, a lot of analysts are hoping we could see a roadmap out of covid zero coming out of the party congress. 1600 new covid cases on saturd

we're not talking about larry summers, left-of-center economists, moderates like larry fink, jamie dimonhese are all democrats. i think david saloman is as well. we're talking about the environmentalists. so, biden is like stuck between a rock and a hard place and his default right now is to attack the saudis and i'm telling you the wall street guys are saying you're making a huge mistake. liz: crude oil sup 3%. >> where is it right now? liz: $88 and change because we had inventory numbers that look ad little thin. again you don't want the number to go up. >> right. liz: that is the number you want to see come down. >> but they want to keep it in the 80 to 90-dollar a barrel range. that is their range. they think they were pretty communicative to the biden administration. there is a long story in the "times" today which talks to some of this but gives you the biden administration's, i guess viewpoint on it. i will say this, the saudis are saying that they knew that is our benchmark, 80 to 90. for them to be surprised that we'll cut production, at least wall street guys i know talking to

as to we are hearing all these dire predictions, from banks ceos, jamie dimon to goldman sachs larry summers raising red flag of worry several months. in gains what would you characterize the guidance to be from corporate america, on the heels of these earnings? >> we're really hearing a lot of uncertain guidance does have to do with unclear macro trajectory we have really not had a period like we've seen last couple years starting with obviously, global pandemic that we had in 2020. that kind of a situation with both supply pressures it created as well as unusual demand pressures have led to uncertainty as far as inflation, how quickly can deaccelerator the impact consumer confidence corporate spending because of that we are hearing, some uncertain forward guidance executives are really not sure how well positioned their he companies may be going forward. maria: yeah, hard to have the visibility at this point, lisa i want to get your take what is going on in britain rishi sunak sworn in this morning as new prime minister. uk british up and down rallied around expectations that have we were

. >> asked larry summers. it created the worst inflation in a generation.rs into a $300 billion hole. and caused this entire problem. and that's why democrats are not running on it. >> bret: they have a lot of pieces of legislation to run on that they're not running on. >> the inflation reduction act. >> well, and biden did list them today. you know, infrastructure and the chips act and the gun safety bill. >> bret: the messenger that he is not the best messenger. >> i don't think he is the best messenger but i also think we are about to see something historic here. we saw, you know, a wave in 94. we saw a wave in 2010. we are about to see a wave, i think the real question is going to be whether kevin mccarthy ends up getting 40 seats. this is the kind of thing when you get that kind of acceleration going into a midterm like we have been seeing, i think that this stuff is so bad for the democrats, they haven't are even realized it yet. it's going to, i think. sweep out an entire generation of leadership that has been in this town and been running democratic

i want you it listen to larry summers. he says a recession is more likely than not.l have a recession. i think that's a consequence of the excesses that the economy has been through and historical experience suggests that the kind of inflation we have rarely returns to normal levels, to target levels of around 2% without some kind of recession. >> we are so far from 2% inflation. we're 6 points away from 2% inflation here. there's a lot of work here to do. >> there is a lot of work still to do. i think the fed's going to be very difficult for the federal reserve to know when it's time to take their foot off the brake before driving the economy into the recession. i think that's what professor webber was referencing. i believe we are going to be headed for a year of extreme economic uncertainty. i think we'll see that first and foremost in europe, probably china. the question will be to what extent do some of those concerns spill over into the united states and, again, for how long will the federal reserve have to keep interest rates elevated in order to get inflation

larry summers, warmer secretary of treasure warned them not to spend that trend trillion dollars.reate inflation. the economic advisor to obama calls it the original sin of inflation. put our energy back on track to make this energy independent. lower the price at the pump so people can fill up their car but also have money left over for food as well. these are things we will tackle at the beginning with these core candidates across the country. >> we have been talking about inflation, but also crime has been such an important issue. people are afraid to go outside of their house. now we have seen what is taken place in the pelosi family. our thoughts and prayers are with all policy right now. do you have any information about how the speaker the house's husband is doing right now after surgery? >> violence has no place in our sociÉtÉ. what happened to paul pelosi is wrong. i reached out and called the speaker. she was on a plane back for her husband. we were able to communicate by text. she said that the surgery went well. i wanted to convey that our thoughts and prayers with her

it was predicted, not just by republicans but by democrats like former treasury secretary larry summers that spending all that money will lead to inflation. democrats kept spending it even after we had record high inflation. they spent another $700 billion. the second reason is price of energy is high. it doesn't just hit families and their budget. it drives up the cost of manufacturing. it drives up the cost of doing business. it drives up the cost of transportation. that is very much is an intentional policy. the democrats want energy prices to be high, because they want to end american production of fossil fuels, oil and gas and coal. they may not say it in the 45 day before election. mark my words, on november 9th, the democrats will go back to openly waging war on american oil, gas and coal. >> harris: when you say contentional crises, all i can think of our power grids still about 80% dependent on fossil fuels and or coal. i don't know what they are thinking they are doing but they are making that situation weaker using electricity. i remember few weeks ago, the governor of califo

with inflation on 40-year high, they are going to feel as though spending with the rescue package larry summersd out was folly and bring up inflation reduction act, which is your green agenda and rick scott said we should revisit nondiscretion ary spending, it is trillions over budget. >> ainsley: yesterday toward end of our show, tulsi gabbard announced she was leaving the democratic party and released this video of why she will leave the parties, actually the party left her. she sat down with tucker andin splaed more. listen. >> it speaks to the whole environment of free, elitists in power, people are afraid to speak the truth, you myrtle beach lose your job, be cancelled, be trashed. too many people are warmongers surserve yabt yabt and put selfish issue or interest of donors first with no mooin for cost and consequence on the american people, this is what we're seeing with president biden and leaders in congress pushing us to brink of nuclear holocaust of which they may have bunkers and will be safe, we the american people have no shelter, no place to go and hide and face the consequences t

before the release of the cpi data last week some think that terminal rate could be higher like larry summers who tweets the hike is already a milestone. joining me now is mark haefele mark, good morning >> good morning. >> it's historic to see the rapid rise we have seen in rates. the question is how high we can go from here >> well, look, the 5% priced in is important to understand for equity investors because when you think about this rates move, what it means is a lot of what has happened to the indices this year is really just about rates going higher and so we have to be focused now on companies that start reporting lower earnings going forward because that could be another leg down particularly in tech where we think the overvaluation remains. >> for stock and equity investors who are trying to understand what the bond market is telling them, what is the message we're hearing right now especially in the shorter part of the curve with the 2-year treasury at .6%. that's a huge move. >> the bond market is telling us that the fed is serious about using its powers to hike rates and to try t

everybody understands, even larry summers warns the democrats former secretary treasury told them if they pass the american rescue plan, the $10 trillion in power, brought us inflation. it's the most painful thing you can do to a nation every america needs to be asked, could you afford to give up one month of your wages? 95% of americans will say no. but that's what the democrats have taken from you. one month of your wages is 8.3% of overall year, inflation is higher than that. when you go to the store eggs are higher. you got milk higher, gasoline prices higher. it is the democratic policies that brought them. in the commitment to america, we will be energy independent that lower your price. we'll take away this runaway spending. we'll make america more productive to curve inflation. >> bill: you're spending money in places that lot of people would not expect. congressional districts in oregon, few in california and few in connecticut. one in rhode island. yeah, is that a head fake? >> no head fake. >> bill: what do you see that's happening in those districts? >> i see extraordinar

even larry summers warned the former democrat secretary of treasury told them if they pass the americanescue plan that $10 trillion overall that they spent while they were in power brought us inflation. >> in the new fox fuzz midterm polling, the sixth most important issue is abortion policy but democrats and officials here are trying to elevate that. in fact, a few minutes from right now, the presidential motorcade will take him to remarks across town about abortion policy. stu. stu: peter deuces seizure disorders, thank you very much -- doocy, thank you very much, sir. we'll see you again soon. crime in the midterms and it'll be a huge issue. what do you say? ashley: yeah, according to a harvard harris poll, some 66% of voters thought crime was rising and it is an issue and three quarters of republicans blamed woke politicians but surprisingly 52% of democrats agreed. the crime issue giving republicans of course am in addition to use against -- ammunition on soft on crime and a barrage of tv ads across the country and running right now but it's not just crime and leaders like kevin mc

>> i put forward with larry summers a rough rule of some that you should focus on real debt service andanted to be below 2% gdp, and not trending up rapidly. even if it is below 2% gdp. we are much closer to hitting that warning sign now and then we were, when we first with that paper. and part debt has gone up, and in part real interest rates have gone up. there's a question as to whether we forecast real interest rates -- which we forecast interest rates? interest rates were low three years ago because of demography and inequality, and productivity. none of that has changed. we had more debt, and two that will drive interest rates up. the formula lets you do that, not a huge amount. once we get through this episode, real interest rates will come down. i have a certain amount of sympathy for that view, but it is not just interest rates today are high, but what the market that's the interest will be decade from now for money you want over the decade after that. that is also quite high. that is even higher than where we -- where real interest rates are now. this point, two years ago, abo