treasury secureuretary larry summers. let's listen to what he has to say. >> i think it would be a grave error for central banks to revise 2% inflation targets upwards at this point. i say that as someone who was negative on the idea that the united states should put in place a specific numerical target it seems to me that having failed to attain the 2% inflation target and having reemphasized repeatedly the absolute commitment to the 2% inflation target and to then p abandon the 2% inflation target would do very substantial damage to credibility >> i also asked chairman thomas jordan if the world will ever go back to negative interest rates. >> it was absolutely essential to serve negative interest r rates. we are happy we are out and in positive territory we can use this instrument in case it is necessary when you go back into negative inflation, we will not hesitate to use it again. it is much better not to use it. it is also proof we can maintain a low inflation goal and price stability and having instruments in order

larry summers, now in education of course, but the former treasury secretary. larry summers, i think, is starting to feel that there is a possibility that we might get something that looks a bit like a soft landing in the united states. he also, i think, has a view on china. it will be a staggering error, i think, for the u.s. to try and suppress chinese growth. i hope that gives you a little insight on how are -- how our key panelists feel on core issues. very briefly, as we gather for this first winter dabo's in three years -- davos in three years, inflation is resistant leanne persistently high. the cost-of-living crisis is causing labor strife. central banks are tightening financial conditions. as prices remain high, global debt is high. in some places, it is still rising. i haven't even talked about ukraine and the horrible crisis in ukraine, the humanitarian crisis taking place there, already the state of the energy transition, which we might also need to get onto here. krista lena, should we be pessimistic or optimistic about the year ahead? ms. georgiev

david westin -- we are hoping that larry summers will be there shortly. are a fantastic person to talk to at the world economic forum today. the reason i say that, on friday, we saw a whole range of banks coming out with numbers. tuesday, we got the same thing. sandwiched in the middle, they are all coming to davos to talk to you. david: i'm not sure that they are coming to talk to me, but global wall street does come to here. larry summers is in the country, i'm not sure that he will make it for this hit. the real issues we are talking about is what challenges we face as a world, government, academia. 42 years ago, they came here to try and help the world. as we meet here, i think the world needs help like we have never had before. so many long-term issues to be addressed in a struggling to bring the world together. guy: we have some of the ceos coming. i wonder what kind of turbulence they are expecting. people talk about this davos being dominated by a poly crisis. if you are a banker, is this a threat or opportunity? david: i'm sure they would say bot

report, maybe the fed will start to slow pace of rate increases, but you balance that with what larry summers said over the weekend. is the market right or is summers right? >> you know, seema, good morning. last year, the market had to deal with the fed increase and now it is the economy's turn this year is rocky in the back half particularly of this year basically what will happen as the rate hikes start to take hold, you will see some of the problems that come along with it like job cuts. you are starting to see the beginning of those start now in tech it seems that is feeding in financials with goldman sachs. as we move through the first quarter, you will see that permeate into other industries that will be probably the beginning of the end of the growth cycle for the part of the economy. we will see that happen. i don't think the market is going to have as difficult a time this year as last year because it probably will mean that rate hikes will, you know, go away. i don't know if it will be a pivot very soon, but a signal that the fed will back off rates closer to the march or april tim

as larry summers pointed out, there is no future spending, and is paying those bills.he democrats need to meshes this all, day every day, to the american people. >> the best way to tell that the white house republican son's talk about deficit touch again. they're bringing this up the three times that they raise the debt ceiling when they were in charge, donald trump was in the white house. mind you, they had no objection when donald trump added trillions of dollars to our national debt, literally, 25% about our entire national set because the history of this country happened under donald trump, and indeed, a slight majority of our national debt happen under republican presidencies, and republican rule. i do not take, as very genuine, they're sudden concern about deficits, and debt, and it was larry summers, and others, this is not about future spending. this is about spending that congress was already voted for, that has already been signed into law, and now they're getting the bill in the mail, are they paying it or not? >> at least those in the senate, i want to shar

the goal standard is coming, according to larry summers.hat do you need to see to motivate the fed to hit the pause button? not cut, but pause. >> it's the defense department that the labor market may be looking at. as far as the inflation front is concerned, we've already seen inflation come down quite a bit since the peak. we've seen plenty of evidence that inflation is easing, but that's not enough for that fed. they will need to see the labor market slow down. the labor market is a lagging indicator, so it will take some time. i march they should be done hiking. the labor market should show some evidence of easing. tom: i want to get your views on the yen. saying it will scrap why cc probably within six months of taking over -- taking over. where does it top out, do you think? >> we have seen the yen benefit massively from speculation that this ultra easy policy will come to a long-awaited ins. but obviously if the boj does signal that it will continue along that path and we do have a rate hike in the forecast for later this year, which

larry summers is the president emeritus of harvard university where he holds a professor sit still.the past several decades he has sort in a series of senior policy positions vice president of development economics and chief economist of the world bank. director of the national economic council for the obama administration secretary of the treasury of the united states from 1999 until 2001. i could go on. but we would rather hear directly from professor summers. professor summers thank you for joining us by zoom and welcome back to the cato institute. >> i am glad to be with you. i wish you had gone on, i was rather enjoying all the nice things you are saying about me and i was remembering what lyndon johnson had said when he was introduced in a similar way. i wish my parents had been here for that. my father would have appreciated what you said. my mother would have believed it. i'm flattered and honored the invitation to participate in this book. i think has written very, very important book. it is important in three respects. first, it adds to the growing body of evidence and kno

treasury secretary larry summers on the fed's fight against inflation.quity markets are higher this morning the question is, is it misplaced exuberance on what everyone is calling a goldilocks jobs report? esther reichelt is our guest this morning, epic strategist at commerzbank. -- fx strategist at commerzbank. larry summers says we will have a very different financial landscape. let's start with a step back. what does a tumultuous year of volatility mean for fx markets? good morning. esther: well i would expect we would need to see volatility going up. we had quite high levels throughout the latter half of 2022. right now, it does not yet look like this, because the market is quite confident. even though the fed tries to bring in more on the fed side, so far, they have resisted. dani: the market is sending the dollar to a seven-month low. do you also want to sell the dollar at this point? do you follow on to that narrative that there will be a soft landing, or that the fed can pause, potentially pivot? esther: the latter one in particular. although thi

larry summers that will share thoughts about super abundance and we've invited dr. summers because he's the most important economist in the world and counted onto provide critical comments, some of which we may not agree with, all of which we'll have to work onin refining our own thinking n this big issue. larry summers holds a professorship at emeritus university and includes vice president of development economics and director of economic council and obama administration and secretary of the treasury of the united states from 1999 to 2001. i could go on but we'd rather hear from directly professor summers and professor summers and joining us by zoom and it's produced in a similar way in which my parents have been here for that and my following the flattery and participation to participate in this book. i think it's clearly and it's a very, very important book and he's important in three respects and adds to the glowing body of evidence that we have documenting all the worry about humanity does make staggering and immense progress. i will mark often to students tha

meanwhile the former treasury secretary larry summers warned the u.s. economy is not out of the woods yet. >> one has to be careful of false dawns. if you think about it, the good news was inflation running in the sixes, and that is still inconceivably high by the standards of two or three years ago, so i would stick with my view that recession this year is more likely than not. tom: we are joined now by guy foster, chief strategist at rbc brewin dolpin, good morning, thank you for joining us in studio. let's pick up with a view from every summers and arguably the bloomberg team as well, eps revisions are starting to point to a hard landing, is recession still the base case at brewin dolphin? or are you seeing a more nuanced picture now? guy: i think the picture is highly nuanced to be completely honest. are we going to get a hard landing, i would say it is very likely. the timing is the real issue. and the expectation. the question is, do you get it during 2023? you either get it late 2023, or sometime in 2024. there is a lot of uncertainties, we just

because the atlanta fed is the silver line data, according to larry summers.lexander: the pace we saw over the last two prints is probably right for another couple prints. simply because we cut pretty high, and we're going to need to keep bringing this down. end of the wage numbers are still high. as a result, the fed is still going to hike. whether it is 50 or 25, we will find out. chair powell has been clear, wanted to half seems a fair number. bullard may be stronger and harder than perhaps some of his colleagues which seems to be his usual role on the committee's. but because of that, we're going to see this inflation number continue to be pushed hard. and the fed will keep pushing into it. so we got a little while to go. i don't know that we will bottom below 2% and overshoot. the fed is aware although they want to regain credibility, they don't want to do so at the expense of complete damage to the economy. dani: if the market is going out on its own and say the fed will not blink, but we know the direction of inflation, has that story played out? i ask

haidi: former treasury secretary larry summers.we tell you who is attending this year's world economic forum in davos and who is not. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: a shifting geopolitical landscape, level -- global headwinds and crypto, these are some of the themes that will be addressed at the world economic forum this week. here is a look at what to expect on the ground at davos. >> snow-covered alps, private jets and coveted badges. the world's elite dissent on davos for the first winter meeting since 2020. let's break down the agenda. the top three things that will dominate this year's agenda. number one, all about inflation. the post-covid recovery crashed headfirst into surging cpi in 2022. supply chains stretched to breaking point and prices soared, putting pressure on consumers. the fed and central bank's around the world responded with aggressive rate hikes, taking the possibility of recession in their stride. were they behind the curve? number two, a shifting geopolitical landscape. russia's invasion of ukraine forced many

. >> larry summers, former national economic director under the obama administration spoke about thetinued need to address inflation despite recent data showing a decline. his comments were part of a panel discussion on the global economy at the world economic forum in del vos, switzerland. he was

larry summers, who will share some thoughts about. superabundance. we've invited professor summers not just because one of the most important economists in the world, but also because he can be counted to provide critical comments, some of which we may not agree with, all of which will be useful to in refining our own thinking on, this big issue. larry summers is the president emeritus of harvard university, where he holds professorship still. during the past decades, he's served in a series of senior policy positions, including vice president of economics and chief economist, the world bank, director of the national economic council for the obama and secretary of the treasury of the united states. from 1999 to 2001. i could go on, but we would rather hear directly from professor summers. professor summers, thank you for joining by zoom and welcome back to the cato institute. i'm glad to be with you. i wish you had going on. i was rather enjoying all the nice things that you were saying about me and i was remembering what johnson had said when he was

larry summers in davos saying the greatest tragedy would be is central banks don't finish the job. out with a note today pretty short and twsqueet i'm going to read it to you. steve weiss is one of many people who believe the fed is one of the biggest players this is the last we're going to hear from the fed in their quiet period do you think more equities have their down side? >> i think any risk for the market is complacency particularly among investors we've been trying to talk ourselves into a fed pause, and the great hallelujah chorus starts when we say fed pivot except we're the only ones saying it. the fed isn't saying it at all and i was privileged to give a speech with the fed president pat harker and i've gotten to know pat over the years. we've had a lot of private conversations. i said what aren't we getting from the fed he goes i don't know why you're not listening. we're going to have more hikes he says we're going to have three more hikes yeah, we're probably a little optimistic the other side is i think we're a little too pessimistic this is going to last forever. a

this week ahead of the fed decision -- that's one view and on the other side, treasury secretary larry summers says he wrote that the fed needs to maintain maximum flexibility were things could go either way. when you weigh the different viewpoints against each other, you see what we are getting in terms of the economic data. what would a policy mistake look like in this cycle? >> i think the policy mistake would be not being flexible enough. i think the fed will want to keep as much flexibility as they can possibly keep an react to incoming data. this is precisely what we expect to hear that chair powell will reinforce that the incoming data is at the center of their thinking and they will be very much data dependent and keep all the options open. i think that's in them portland as opposed to committing to any specific course of action. there is an expectation that retaining flexibility would be the most important thing. i expect to hear more of that that kind of tone at the press conference. katie: one of the pillars of mohamed el-erian's argument why the fed should fire off another 50 basis

we have the likes of larry summers who got behind joe manchin skinny bill which was adding to inflationot at the levels the full shebang bernie sanders would've done has been costing the government and say there's a way to do this responsibly and now you divided government you're going to ceos get bigger about this, kevin mccarthy wants to flex as much as possible i don't know what his caucus is going to look like that's a problem for him yes slim margins to work with but i think anything that comes out of a democrat-controlled senate which is very embolden after a super successful midterm is going to die and congress. gerry: kim do you think there's any prospects of congress doing anything at 2023 again we have a divided congress and a democratic white house, it doesn't look very promising as justices. >> now, on the upside you can hope that this congress would take the approach of do no harm meaning what's been harming the economy all of the massive spending and you could rely on the republican house to serve as a break to anymore dollars going into the economy that would be a start b

we heard from larry summers who spoke to bloomberg television after the jobs report and he had a warning for bond investors. >> this will be remembered as the year that we recognize that we were headed into a different kind of financial era with different kinds of interest rate patterns. katie: he also said he suspects to multiple be one of the defining characteristics -- tumult will be the defining characteristics in 2023. it seems that was significant and 2020 two, the incredible volatility in the bond market. will that be the set up for 2023? greg: we don't think it will be the case. 2022 you saw 200 75 basis range on the 10 year treasury, 75 basis point range in investment grade credit spreads, and 2023 will be more subdued. perhaps 100 basis point range, 3.25 or 4.25. you will see into range volatility but overall we think the range is narrow and you can play that in terms of adding value. volatility overall is less than 2022. katie: when you think about adding value, where do you see the most value to be had in the u.s. treasury market, in the front end or are you willing to maybe

larry summers told bloomberg's david westin he's a bit more optimistic than a few months ago. >> i'm still cautious, but with a little more help than i had before. soft landings are the triumph of hope over experience. we have seen some slowing of inflation indicators. we have seen continued strength. that has to be what we all want to see. tom: ok, joining us now is the cio and global head of multi-asset investment at schroders. what do you make of the u.s. data and how it informs your views of recession risk in the world number one economy? >> our central scenario is we are going to get recession in the united states. that is in line with our view. that is why we have turned more positive on bonds. tom: in terms of the market reaction, you did have this selloff and rally in bonds. that historical asymmetry, will that continue through the year? >> for now, yes. we see opportunities and the rest of the world, but i think there is the potential for bonds to offer diversification benefits which were clearly not apparent in 2022. yes, we would expect that correlation to shift back to mo

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> that's a good point my point is a lot of people with varying degrees of views on all this >> larry summers has been interesting. in davos, he was speaking a bit more benignly in terms of things maybe we have a better shot of coming out of this without some severe recession he also made comments at the cnbc event where he was talking about how the one thing you don't want to do is fight inflation again. you need to snuff it out >> pandemic reopening. that is not what it -- we did print a lot of money you do see who has a vote? austin goolsby a squawk remembegular gets a vo? did you see what he said we had that eight-box. he said it took five people to replace me >> not wrong >> i had no answer for that. i want to come back with something and say -- >> he's a smart guy. >> i just said i have no answer. it took five people to get to your level of analysis and insight. >>> check out the shares of salesforce elliott management taking a multibillion dollar stake of the company. history shows that elliott seeks board representation and pushes for companies to make operational improvements this is

in the meantime, larry summers has proclaimed that the prospects for the global economy are bright. i was just listening to you run through the market, the gold standard for data for larry sommer is eci. the silver data will be the atlanta data. the consensus is growing. the ferocity of slowdown, seems to be start recession. there will be a real slowdown. jet fuel demand is 50% below where it was at pre-covid for china. the ceo began his station talking about the optimism around china. that was the most pressing factor in every conversation that we have had. on banking through to real companies on the production side. when it comes to one of the big asset owners who, of course, are not going to be filling the whole of liquidity. the pivot for someone i talk to will be towards china. >> i expect for 2023 a strong recovery. i think we thing the signs already. i think it is an interesting economy with a lot of opportunities. any large country like this i think for sure, it will be very interesting. manus: today, we get to talk to one of those companies exclusively on bloomberg from my r

treasury sec secr secretary larry summers spoke out. >> i would talk about a subsidy war and trade wara subsidy war about good things is a good thing. walling off each other's innovation is basically a much more problematic thing so, yes, i would like to keep markets open and i think that is mutually important i think in its totality, the inflation reduction act in the united states is a historically positive measure if we are all competing over who can accelerate a transition toward renewables more rapidly, who can be thinge biggest leadei storage technology that is a healthy kind of competition. >>> coming up on the show, french president emmanuel macron meets german chancellor olof scholz and discuss the war in ukraine. we'll discuss more after the break. shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. just like th

. >> one thing i've beeni thinkin about with the davos forum with the monetary policy and larry summers will be there. i was thinking to what extent are central banks in control of where inflation ends up? it is easy for them to put out the forecast, but the stimulus for inflation did come from factors. to what extent are they in control with the price of wheat from ukraine some of the factors are globalized and in a situation like 2022 and what you did see is not just response from the u.s. central bank, but global quote/unq quote/unquote, central bank community. >> we are seeing, to that point, it is still early days, obviously. we are seeing headline inflation come off in the u.s. and europe. we will see if that is the same case with core inflation holding up i'm curious with the range of central bank voices due to speak today and next week in davos with you, to what extent the fed drives other central banks will we see another set of act actions? >> i think for the ecb they find themselves in a peculiar situation. it was only in december they came out with the really hawkish comment

normally spend as a result of policies of joe biden and according to democratic economists like larry summersyear high inflation that we are seeing and then we have joe biden's regulatory budget where he's making it hard on the supply side - our economy to put people back to work and get full employment and get the jobs that we need in the oil and gas industry, for example. so i'm glad he's invited kevin mccarthy to the white house and i hope he agrees that he will visit with mr. mccarthy and come with up mutually way of control spending and get the economy moving and don't go into recession due to policies. maria: where do you think the most wasteful spending is potentially to cut? >> well, look, across the whole budget we have unprecedented higher levels of spending than we had before the pandemic and what i want to go back to, maria, is where republicans and democrats agree that the smallest deficits are the best deficits and try to get to the balance budget but the joe biden budget that he's proposed has 1 and a half trillion dollar deficits for the next ten years. he's forecasting based

a lot of people have been pouring cold water on the idea, including, over the last few days, larry summersalling it highly problematic, not to mention, if you listen to olivia blanche chart calling this insane, but the idea has been floated because it could help regional integration, not to mention, of course, regional growth on the trade side as well. but we heard this from the brazil and argentina presidents, that they want to renew those discussions. governor costa thinks this is difficult in latin america because it's a different scenario where you have different inflations, monetary policies, so she also thinks it will be very challenging. guy: fascinating interview, shery. really worth paying attention to. thank you for bringing it to us, shery ahn, joining us from chile . let's talk about european markets toward the end of the day. absolutely unchanged on the stoxx 600. it is a day again of individual stocks. scorse ceo is stepping down and the stock is being punished. h&m down 4.27%. single stocks driving what is happening here. the chairman of ubs joining us next to discuss. this

larry summers warns central banks not to go soft and inflation.e will have an exclusive with esther george. tech braces for more pain. google cut 6% of its workforce as big tech is forced to trim fat. the stock up over 4%. almost 100 80 million options contracts are expiring today, the highest in a decade for a january. equities fizzled this week after a stellar start to the year. i'm alix steel. my cohost in london, guy johnson. welcome to "bloomberg markets." it's been a difficult week for the data. a murky picture, making direction for equities more, get a. guy: no question. bad news is bad news, good news is bad news. it is hard to judge what is happening. i think the market is confused. everyone is confused. the data flowing on the bloomberg terminal and the latest numbers. existing home sales. i cannot see the month over month number yet. i will wait for the update. the data look better than anticipated. revised a little lower. this month, -1.5%. the rate of change shifts. that was versus an expected number of -3.4%. confusing data. the data

in fact, larry summers in davos said it's likely we'll have a recession.e dimon when i spoke with him in the beginning of january, two weeks ago, january 9th. watch. >> no, i shouldn't have ever used the word hurricane. what i said, there were storm clouds which we could mitigate. people say he doesn't ink think it's a big deal. i said the storm clouds could be hurricane. it could be nothing. it could be bad. we should understand. i'm not predicting one or the other. maria: david, what do you say? also, want to get your take on the tensioner coming out. microsoft -- the earnings coming out. microsoft may very well set the tone for the sector week. they're laying off 10,000 workers, they say we have to do more with less. it's reporting this tuesday, quarterly numbers. google announced 12,000 layoffs on friday, david. your thoughts? >> it's pretty funny. we tend to change our tune when stocks go in a direction that we weren't expecting. so i think jamie's watching the tape and he's feeling the pain from that, the pain train was higher. as far as the tech lay

maria: larry summers nailed in a one in terms of stagflation what about emergency oil chevron announceyback stock up 3 1/2% this morning i spoke with mike wirth about this, in davos last week, the ceo, here is what he said. . >> well we have a very balanced approach, to the way we allocate capital, first priority is dividend increased dividend payout 35 years in a wow. maria: wow. >> second priority to invest organically to grow future catch florz third strong balance sheet low single digit applying shares back at 15 billion dollars a year we can do it all with a very balanced approach. kept promise announcing 75 billion stock buyback would you buy here. >> something we're in have oil capital obviously, north america, something to where companies are doing so, so well, stocks are obviously, anticipating this but probably more of a holder chevron right in other we love the company love what they are doing the awful energy market best we've seen 40, 50 years. >> great to see you christopher thank you, chris fer zook, jobless claims and december durable goods, coming up in about ten minut

washington working first for janet yellen in the white house council of economic advisers and then for larry summersat the u.s. treasury pixel between 1998-2000 there was a peak of the asian financial crisis that became then global for emerging markets across the board, and i wrote about it. i did policy work and eventually the book about financial crisis, emerging markets. but then the also times were slowly slow itbe was beginning f having financial crisis also in advanced economies. you had the dot com bubble and inn the bust. we had when i was in the white house theap collapse of in the contagion to russia and we worried about russia imploding at the time, or pakistan imploding. it was a nuclear state. there were other crises in advanced economies, the peak of it being the global financial i realize over time you cannot be just an expert of economic monetary currency of financial matters because politics, geopolitics, law, technology, climate change, health, pandemics and other social things affect economics and, of course, economic development lead to political social and geopoliticalge consequ

larry summers former treasury secretary's many of you spoke with he said a default would be a catastrophic -- it would be higher borrowing cost forever. and wendy eller berg says it is playing a game with the u.s. economy and people's lives which i think is a responsible. so yes, there are programs that will be at risk if this is the direction republicans in the house decide to take. reporter: a follow-up to this, are there efforts in the white house up and down pennsylvania avenue to safeguard if this crisis continues to loom? for instance, you talk about social security checks, not just social security, medicaid, terry checks and other items. are you guys working on -- military checks and other items. so are you guys working on anything so that these checks can come out in this crisis issue? ms. jean-pierre: veterans and senior citizens or taxpayers. if republicans go down this road they will be the ones who are hurting. we are going to continue to do what you have seen us do and hearing from myself in this event which is caused out -- call us out. which is saying that we in congress sho

washington working, first for janet yellen in the white house council of advisers, and then for larry summers and geithner of the us treasury. so between 1998 and 2000, there was the peak of the asian financial crisis that became then global for emerging markets across board. and i wrote about it. i that policy worked and eventually i wrote book about the financial crisis, emerging markets. but then there were also times where slowly, slowly there was the beginning of having financial crises also in advanced economies, you know, you had the dot com bubble and then the bust we had when i was in the white house, the collapse of yeltsin and the contagion to russia and, we were worried about russia and clothing at that time and the geopolitical consequences of that or pakistan imploding. there was a nuclear state and there were other crises in the advanced economies with the peak of it, of course, being the global financial crisis. but over time, i realized that you cannot be just an expert of economic monetary, currency and financial matters, because politics, geopolitics, law, technology, clima

. >> larry summers says that the fed especially should pump the brakes saying they're driving the vehiclenty already in the economy that they need to take stock of what's already done is he wrong? >> yes, and that's the view of fed chair powell when he gives us this really powerful imagine, that we are all in a dark room feeling our way around that's absolutely right. but there's a clock ticking. so we have to balance, feeling our way around and driving down the fog with the -- what i think is the likelihood that that fog will get even more down the road so we have more visibility today than i think we'll have in about four to six months about economic growth. and many analysts on wall street have shifted to that view. >> some of the looser financial conditions that you talk about, there's just been a general sigh of relief in the markets in the last few weeks because there's an expectation that maybe europe had avoided a recession, had avoided a worst-case scenario, but then this morning you get an unexpected contraction in the german economy, you have higher than expected inflation in s

larry summers said had he been through many of these.s the first one i saw. i remember that the treasury secretary at the time, bob ruben, came up with the extraordinary measures that they are now using going into effect today, janet yellen anounsed it -- announced t we hit the debt ceiling today. they are accounting bookkeeping things. they suspend investment in several retirement funds for civil servants. then once this is all settled, they make them whole. once in the past they lost about $1 billion because they didn't get made whole. the issuance of state and local government securities, which is very wongy, hasn't been -- woningy -- w much onky, hasn't been done that. and 2011, that's where the one where s&p downgraded the u.s. we almost had a major problem. this is the stock market and also credit card rates at that time. you can see s&p just plunged when we got to the debt limit cliff and almost went over. it sent rates for borrowing up significantly. it was a major problem for the u.s. economy. people tend to forget that. this is

larry summers, former treasury secretary, that many of you speak with -- a default would be catastrophic. it would mean higher borrowing cost forever. and lastly, wendy edelberg from brookings -- it's playing a game with the u.s. economy and people's lives that i think is irresponsible. so, yes, there are programs that will definitely be at risk if this is the direction that republicans in the house decide to take. reporter: ok. so, another follow-up to this. are there efforts afoot in this white house, up and down pennsylvania avenue, to safeguard if there is this crisis that continues to loom? for instance, you know, you talked about social security checks. not just social security -- medicaid, medicare, and military checks and other items. are you guys working on any kind of process to be a safety net so that the military can get paid, so that these checks can come out in the midst of this crisis, as you're fighting about raising the debt limit, that is constitutional? ms. jean-pierre: so, look, it's a very good question. and you're right, veterans, seniors are taxpayers. this is -- i

democrats advisors like those of president obama, larry summers and rattner, to name a few, democrats in this body on this side of the floor ignored the whole thing, refused to listen. nancy pelosi and democrats in the house said we don't want to hear it. put their fingers that their ears. a month after president biden signed the bill, inflation climbed. we have the been suffering the consequences ever since. president biden said, no, no, it's transitory. i.t. not inflation. he had 100 ex-crews. it was here and it was here to stay and the democrats cause ited. democrats also raised taxes on nearly every tax bracket. this was a direct violation of the promises joe biden made to the american people. democrats raised prices anyway. joe biden gave an inaugural address where he talked like he was going to work together. not what happened. no, he went to the white house, killed the keystone x.l. pipeline and then went far, far to the left. raises taxes on american energy, reyes raised taxes on energy -- raised taxes on natural gas. natural gas powers half the homes in the united states. tax

sentiment shifting here, embracing the possibility of a soft landing, certainly something that larry summersnd david solomon are saying here's what he said on "squawk" today. >> i think the sentiment is softening a little bit, and the view that the chance of a softer landing, both in the u.s. and europe, is actually increasing our economists, our economics team, has been pretty soft landing over the last six months i was more in a position, because i was talking to ceos, who have been more cautious, that i was more uncertain, but i see ceos softening a little bit. >> interesting, because we have had a lot of discussions about the difference between solomon's view and the house view at goldman. >> it's so funny you mention that brian moynihan gave us a speech, we had the conference call, and it looked like, not to worry then on monday, recession. >> yeah, brian moynihan changed his tune a bit he said, mild recession, and then he gave all these reasons why it wasn't going to be that bad, but he did say, mild recession, whereas solomon here is going the other way, in part, because he had, to ca

the idea it's going to be a soft landing not a hard landing >> and it seems like whether it's larry summershe consensus appears to be warming up to that idea of a soft landing, but does that now mean we've graduated into a period where bad news really is bad news >> well, i think we saw that yesterday. as you know, this market can change what is important to focus on and right now i still think that we go back to the issue that we had all of last year, which is inflation. inflation, i think, clearly is moderating i thought the ppi numbers were particularly impressive to the downside and then, as you said, the new york data -- as steve said, the new york data came out for the january survey of business as did the philadelphia today, and they both indicate a weak economy, a soft economy. again, not really definitive one way or the other on soft versus hard certainly the inflation number, the price numbers have continued to come down that's a good thing. and i think that's what the bond market's reflecting, that inflation is coming down. >> that's exactly where i was going with you, ed the bon

larry summers thinks it is more likely are not but not as gung ho on recession. where are you? jane: we are seeing different things in different countries but we expect to see a rolling series of country recessions, but short of anything crazy happening geopolitically and this time last year we wouldn't have predicted what happened in ukraine, you have seen the over optimism from some about soft landings and the economy doing well. but equally you have seen the severe case downside coming in. i think the general view in the states, when we hold at citi, is we expect to see amount recession, largely driven by the painfully driven service division but we expect to see central banks continue tightening as a result. vulnerabilities that amplify previous recessions around the world are not pressing. banks are in good shape. consumer and corporate balance sheets are in good shape. i think that omens well for mild recessions rather than ones that we have to be worried about. jonathan: jane fraser of citi sitting down with david westin. you can continue that conversation on the bloombe

major shout out to larry summers and bloomberg economics david wilcox for pushing blan chard to writes is bloomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to 60% a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. hi, i'm katie, i've lost 110 pounds on golo in just over a year. golo is different than other programs i had been on because i was specifically looking for something that helped with insulin resistance. i had had conversations with my physician indicating that that was probably an issue that i was facing and making it more difficult for me to sustain weight loss. golo has been more sustainable. i can fit it into family life, i can make meals that the whole family will enjoy.

sort of cogent comment over the last couple years was to the fed's credit, atlanta fed invited larry summersssentially said go outside. just go outside. and exactly, they're not spending enough time outside >> if everything they do is looking -- they don't do a lot of leading indicators. maybe they factor in the stock market or whatever, but most of it is they look at things happening over the past three months, six months, year so everything is in the rear view mirror. and in fact, when they said inflation was transitory, they were staring right at it, so that wasn't even backwards that was in their face, and they still didn't see it. >> i mean, they're smart folks and they try hard. and if i were in the seat, would i do a better job? that's an open question. part of the problem is their mandate are two things that are relatively backward looking. inflation doesn't show up all at once it builds. and employment, which is very strong right now and that's their concern, it's one of the most lagging indicators. so to say we're not going to forecast anymore, not going to try to look ahead. full

he has a wide variety of individuals he talks to, including larry summers. secretary yellen . she plans to stay and biden has asked her to, especially as this year will have difficult legislation like the debt ceiling to get through a divided congress. he also takes input from people he meets on the street in delaware, soccer moms when he is out and about on his weekends at home. he calls up ceo's like the head of walmart. he wants to get information on what consumers are facing from a wide variety of individuals, not just think tanks or individuals in the west wing. jonathan: i'm laughing because tom keene is bringing out a box of corks. tom: someone sent me a box of corks. jonathan: that is brutal. you mentioned secretary yellen. we were talking about this yesterday. is it a big factor that we have this debt ceiling debate coming up later this year and he wanted someone almost a political writing treasury, someone more focused on the economic side of things and not interested in the politics in the way some people are? annmarie: secretary yellen does not l

forecast by many, not just free market economists but also by president obama's former top economist larry summersknowledge their rhone role in this because of all the money printing that is a travesty. >> how much of this is just about rhetoric versus what you actually want them to do, joel >> well, we need to have congress going forward ensure that the fed has less latitude to make these types of decisions in terms of purchasing such an array of assets. the authority right now that the fed has, very vague congressional statutes, is virtually unlimited. if anything we should learn how dangerous that power can be and i really don't think the middle class can afford to experience another extended period of inflation running 5% to 10% higher than their living -- than their wage increases >> david, we have to run. >> i think that's too harsh. first of all, we got something for all this money, we got extraordinarily low unemployment, we got a recovery from the pandemic recession much sharper than most forecasters anticipated. so we got something for this the price of it is we got too much inflation an