i'm joined by larry summers, treasury secretary under bill clinton, director of international councilobama and former president of howard university. welcome, larry. so it seemed to me over the last few months that the people who felt a soft landing had gotten very optimistic. someone like paul kruger was saying all of the evidence is pointing in the direction that inflation has cooled. but in any advanced industrial economy, wage inflation is the most important thing. and does this tight of job market, two vacancies for every person looking, does this show that you still have a real inflation problem? >> fareed, you're asking the right question and nobody could know the answer for sure. i've said often that soft landings are as samuel johnson said of second marriage, the triumph of hope over experience. but from time to time, hope does triumph over experience. so it looks more possible that we'll have a soft landing than it did a few months ago. my continued fear, though, is exactly the one that you describe. that we have a set of inflation indicators during 2022 that were very stron

we wait for pce this week, larry summers warns of a very hard risk and the brakes will have to be slammed very hard. more from larry in a moment. and copper this morning, goldman reaffirming their bullish view on the commodity sector. copper up by 4/10 of 1%. they say the market is losing patient with the bullish thesis but remains intact for them. commodities will fly this year. our reporters are standing by, a lot of geopolitics to get through today, a meeting between the top diplomats of the china into the u.s. failing to improve relations. iran taking a step toward acquiring a nuclear weapon. the latest from north korea. the munich security conference. the meeting between the top diplomats from china and the u.s. has only heightened tensions between the sides. here's what antony blinken said about recent downing of a suspected spy balloon. >> i made very clear to him that china sending a surveillance balloon over the united states in violation of our sovereignty and in violation of international law was unacceptable and must never happen again. manus: china calls that a hysterical dow

here to help us understand the full impact on putin's war chest is the economist larry summers, formerreasury secretary under bill clinton and under barack obama. larry, welcome. explain to us first, is economics really central to understanding where we are in the struggle with russia? >> i think it is, fareed. war starts and wars of maneuver and that's what putin hoped it would be and he would win quickly, but they evolved to be wars of attrition, and when it's wars of attrition the economic strength on the two sides, the capacity to mobilize and to produce weaponry and to bring troops to the front become central and that's the concern right now that this has evolved towards a war of attrition and that's going to make what happens to the russian economy and of even greater importance what happens to the ukrainian economy central to how this plays out. >> when you look at the bottom line figure and even though there have been sanctions and the central bank reserves were frozen and technology denied, the russian economy this year is set to grow by 0.3% according to the imf. that means i

former treasury secretary larry summers said the answer is easy. listen to him explain his plan. >>> then, why putin's war on ukraine might not be proceeding as he hoped. the russian president may be getting exactly what he always wanted back home in russia. "the new york times" valerie hopkins will explain. >>> but first, here is my take. one year into russia's naked aggression against ukraine it is become clear that neither side is strong enough to win the war, nor weak enough to sue for peace. the conflict has settled into a stalemate. after making impressive gains, ukraine's armed forces have not made significant advanced in months. russia, meanwhile, has dug into the territories that it occupies and further attacks are having little success so far. the numbers tell the story. according to a washington post analysis, russia occupied about 7% of ukraine territory when it launched its invasion in february of 2022. it swept into eastern ukraine and in a month it was holding 22% of the country. then came ukrainian counter offensives which by mid-no

that's the value of ownership. >> i think the economy: : : . -- time: larry summers offering: : : --.ard economist there, formally of the obama administration warning the economy could walk off a ledge some time this year. he said he's not predicting with confidence that will happen, but he thinks the risks are significantly elevated. that would be quite different than the economic success that we hear this white house touting. >> well, two years ago larry summers told biden not to spend the 2 trillion that was not needed because it would lead to inflation, biden did not listen, the democrats did not listen and we got the roaring inflation worst in 40 years that larry summers predicted. he is looking at the economy where the stock market, s & p has dropped 20% in the last year, dow jones is down 9% in the last year, we are looking -- if your wages did not go up by more than 5%, you became porker last year because 5, 6% inflation rate. you may think you got a pay increase but done with biden's inflation you are poorer than you were. 401(k), irs is worth less. of course people are going

you are larry summers say this is a perplexing set of economic data and there are things he doesn't ofr to. he has more questions than answers. for example, why is there an imbalance between the supply of labor on the one hand and the man on the other side? that's out of kilter. he is worried about whether he believes inflation will be easy come easy go, will it flatten or will it go? alix: after the data today, it seems like some are saying maybe this is a different cycle after all. did he yuan idea of what he would need to see to get clarity? david: i think it will take a lot more data to come out but he address the possibility that employers are hoarding workers, that the productivity will knock off that much, they're just afraid of losing them and one of his concerns is what he called a wily coyote moment where maybe they will have too many workers, too much capacity, and it will suddenly drop off. tom: you are also going to be looking india and the fallout with the adani group. david: yeah, adani clearly is or is not an indicator of what is going on in india but as you know it is

larry summers is warning about how markets are handling the issue of inflation.hat's he worried about? lauren: that it hasn't cooled off that much and pulled a football an a analogy. watch here. >> the consensus has become substantially too complacent about inflation, even after reductions we have seen, inflation today is at levels that would have been unimagin able for inflation two years a.g. ago. we're getting closer with the red zone with respect to inflation so i think the gains in terms of further reduction are going to come harder. lauren: so disinflation is transitory. he spoke about that bounce-back inflation. example gas prices have come backup, used car prices, they fell. they're starting to increase again, so the fed as a result, because inflation is still with us, and sticky, is going to have to stick on their path to higher rates and holding them there longer. ashley: interesting stuff. lauren, thank you. let's take a look at the pre- market the futures showing us a bit flat right now in this monday morning. let's bring in david nicholas. good morni

yes, i as i mentioned larry summers, but he was not the the only one that was the conventional wisdom that we were at the end of the business cycle and and that we just couldn't squeeze anything more out of out of this current cycle. i mean, i think the the federal reserves said that growth wouldn't be much above 2% maybe 2.1% they were predicting for 20 17 2018 trump exceeded that the trump economy exceeded that i think they said unemployment wouldn't fall below around four four point one percent again it did it felt well below that a full percentage point below that in fact, and so that that's and i think it's important to point that out because again there is this argument that this was all going to happen anyway, and and in fact well into 2018 you still had president obama there taking credit. for the trump economy you you had joe biden taking credit again for the trump economy and and saying, you know, we started this the the obama administration started all of us that you're saying today. don't forget who started it and and again, that's why i wanted to point out what those expe

jamie dimon and larry summers worn of economic storm clouds. the nominee to become the next boj governor says policy normalization will need to be considered if the outlook for prices improves. the yen treads water. not a lot of action to start your friday morning but that's because the action will come later. we get the pce data. will it come in hotter than what the bloomberg survey says right now? the expectation is that it will come in at 4.3%. inflation has been surprising to the upside. where do we stand right now on this equity market? we had a rally in american equity yesterday. of course, that's taking a breather. you don't want to put too much risk. you are seeing declines in asia. tech stocks leading the way down this morning. they did very well yesterday in the u.s. session. it was all about nvidia. s&p 500 futures treading water. euro stocks able to put in some gains, for tens of 1%. treasuries are holding onto their gains this morning. yields slightly lower. we had a big pickup on tuesday, about 15 basis points. a third day of yiel

unemployment from 3.4% up to 6.5 like larry summers thinks it should.magine running for office in november 2024 in november ov '24 with those statistics hanging around? it'll be an incredibly interesting time and whether the fed blinks or administration blblinks, it remains to be seen. stuart: i don't know if you live there or not and you spent time in chicago and today there's the mayoral race and it's possible lori lightfoot would be kicked off in the first round. would you welcome that? >> i would. when she ran the first time around, she was almost sympathetic vote and set said a lot of right thingses and got behind her and ever since getting in office, it's been one straight downhill decline and i have friends that refuse to go into the city and women that won't bring purses or watches or rings into the city and crime eke into part of the city and never used to have crime before she's lost the handle on the entire thing and she's running either third or second. i think the runoffs between the top two and we'll see what happens there and if there's a

treasury secretary larry summers speaking about the fed and he says the feds tightening so far as limiting impact. >> the risk is that we will hit the brakes very hard and then when we hit the brakes very hard, that's going to kick in at the same time that some of the negative sick goal dynamics about a rise in savings in excess inventories will kick in. katie: in the contents -- in the context of this cycle, what would that look like? >> we are focused so much on the terminal fed funds rate and to the speakers who just spoke, i inc. we are asking ourselves the wrong question. it's not where the peak fed funds rate is, whether it's the soft landing or a mild recession , the equity markets in particular, when you look at the risk reward, from my perspective, look at the forward pe. that's very aggressive going into a recession. what happens and risk markets and risk markets in the high-yield market as well is as long as the depth of the recession is thought to be shallow and thought to be very short, the market tends to look for earnings and look through potential increases in default rates

that bond market, larry summers still thinks we have a risk of a wily coyote moment. >> that sentimentry much reflected in equity markets. don't you love it when there are finally bonds and equities singing the same tune? they were sold off after an ugly session on friday. geophysical tensions are also on the floor. could that be why alibaba is weakening more than the rest of the market? i should say that tech is doing poorly. this with her in the tech story and tech narrative. nasdaq futures are underperforming. they are having a rough go of it this monday morning. >> they are indeed. it was a beautiful january according to bank of america. it was just a mirage, a bit like my pension fund. the turkish market will be open at 7:00 a.m.. we are told there is a temporary suspension on eight of the main shares, have -- as we get more information on the reaction function from the international assistance, danny and i will bring that to you. let's come back to that. the focus on the european banking sector. a number of major lenders reporting this week. followed very quickly by credit suisse

tom: you are painting a much more benign picture then larry summers.g there is excess greed within u.s. stocks. is there further to run given that benign view? barry: there is. what happened last year it was not a bear market associated with a recession. it was a fed policy related correction. every business cycle since world war ii had one of them. last cycle we had eight. 1987 was arguably that as well. there was no recession knock on. the best analog is 1994 to 1995 where the fed tightened aggressively which argues for complete retracement of the selloff last year. and around the same period of time it took for the market to go down. i have 4800, 100% retracement in the third quarter, and i would note that by the time the fed paused, i saw a note on the bloomberg terminal about another jp morgan strategist saying it has never happened the market rebounded before the fed stopped tightening, that is exactly what happened in 1994 today to 95. by the time the fed acknowledged the pause the stock market was up. if may is the last hike i suspect that is w

larry summers says the market has become too complacent about inflation. >> the fed understands that it does not understand, because no one can know the future with confidence. and i think the fed is determined to do what's necessary. that is certainly what i hope is the case in a substantially uncertain environment. i think the consensus has become substantially too complacent about inflation. francine: joining us now is credit suisse emea chief investment officer nanette hechler-fayd'herbe. thank you so much for joining us, it's going to be a big week as we look forward to u.s. cpi, how do you position ahead of that figure? nanette: we are continuing to be very cautious on equities. we find, at the moment, there is a disconnect in valuations versus where interest rates by the fed but also other central banks will be for the remainder of the year. just as a reminder, last time fed funds rates were at four point 75%, the s&p 500 had forward pe of 15.3, versus now still more than 18. we're overweight bonds. we think any push up in response to upward surprises in inflation are going to

shery: larry summers speaking to david westin on wall street week.he latest business flash headlines. a malaysian minister suggested the rare earths could keep -- the australian company recently had its operating license renewed but failed to get approval for a unit which malaysian officials say generates radioactive waste. in a tweet, the science minister signaled the unit could continue if the waste is taken away. the world's biggest dealmaker is seeking -- biggest steelmaker is seeking a deal following a meeting between the two companies friday. baowu's chairman said they are looking to benefit of repaired trailer relations between -- the effort is being led by royal family member who is also the chairman of a qatar bank . he said he wants to return the club to its former glory. the opening bid would value manu at $6 billion. haidi: let's take a look at what we are seeing when it comes to the start of trading in futures in europe. we are seeing some green. up by about .1%. we are seeing falling in the previous session, risk aversion intensifying i

and that gives you the larry summers he snareio. that's a very real risk. liz: we'll stay on this story of. dr. fauci admits in a study echo authored, covid vaccines do not work and do not stop infections. this after first responders, doctors, nurses, even doctors censored on twitter. a downed object over the state of alaska. you could manufacture a whole new way of manufacturing. disrupt buying habits before they disrupt your business. and fuel the search for what comes next. so...what are you waiting for? (vo) businesses nationwide are switching to verizon business internet. (woman) it's a perfect fit for my small business. (vo) verizon has business internet solutions nationwide. (man) for our not-so-small business too. (vo) get internet that keeps your business ready for anything. from verizon. ♪3, 4♪ ♪ ♪hey♪ ♪ ♪are you ready for me♪ ♪are you ready♪ ♪are you ready♪ say goodbye to multiple daily insulin injections with the new omnipod 5. the only tubeless automated insulin delivery system... that integrates with dexcom g6. automatically adjusting your ins

this is something we spoke to former treasury secretary larry summers about over the weekend and he wasprised by the jobs numbers that came through on friday. he doesn't say that means it is necessarily a good thing for the economy because basically he says there's also the risk of that the layoffs we are seeing in the tech sector start to spread to other industries as well. take a listen. larry: is it going to turn out that at some point people realize they've got too much inventory and labor and we are going to see a fairly sudden stop? i think it's as difficult an economy to read as i can remember. shery: next, the asx 200 on its fifth straight week of gains. we will hear from wilson asset management. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: as we reported earlier, australian gold miner new crest has received a takeover offer from newmont. the nonbinding offer is for 0.38 for each new crest share. paul: .38 share in newmont for everyone share of new crest. this is just six lines here, it just guard -- it describes the upper as indicative, nonbinding and subject to conditions. a lot of those condi

this week, larry summers on whethe

francine: was former treasury secretary larry summers speaking with anchor david westin, saying he seesrying signals in the u.s. economy. deutsche bank looked at buying parts of credit suisse before the swiss bank announced his overhaul last year. for more, let's bring in bloomberg's german banks reporter in frankfurt. it is the first thing i read. i took a double take, i read it three times. was deutsche bank right? >> as you know, that credit suisse is in a bit of trouble right now. before the announcement of the strategy in october, they were thinking about how to raise capital, what to sell. and deutsche bank was looking at what options might be available. they were interested in management assets. credit suisse has a very big wealth management unit, and i'm sure budget bank would've been willing to pay a substantial price. tom: what we know about the likelihood of deutsche bank re-looking at some of these assets, and what timeframe might we be considering? >> it depends a bit on credit suisse. the restructuring that was only announced in october is struggling to gain traction. outf

12-month inflation rates 5.4% headline, 4.7%, core jason, you've got former treasury secretary larry summerswe've got an extremely kl economy to read on one hand we've got to set strong statistics means jobs numbers but i think data coming in a in a way con officials i had inflation does not get back to 2% without slow don in economic activity how severe will that slowdown we? jason: well, i think could be pretty seaver i don't think quite as severe as 2007 or 2008, generally a policy error fed tightening or department of justice exogenous event we might have one all three depending on point of view hard to take from zero to 4.75 not expect economy to slow down in a meaningful way so the good news is that the -- economy looks a bit better no two ways about it but same token makes the fed will keep the fed, tighter longer than people had expected, and as i know, maybe a month ago people were expecting fed to ease by the end of the year, and, those expectations have evaporated so if looking at it as investor, stock prices are largely a result of forward earnings, cash flows, and interest rates

that's mild compared with larry summers, he reckons they have to hit the brakes hard.hat is your worst-case scenario? put your money where your mouth is, what is your worst-case scenario for u.s. rates? >> i think if we are talking worst-case scenarios, or talking sticky inflation, a fed that has to probably do another 50 to 75 now and finds itself in trouble after the summer into than has to do another 50 to 100 basis points. that would be my worst-case scenario, not base case. i have to stress that. if inflation turns out sticky, that will be a problem. manus: you are neutral on risk-taking. what does it get you to crank up the dial? >> i think we have to get more clarity on that point. we've seen inflation come down, we had more disinflation than expected but january with the revisions on top of the actual print show that perhaps we were not quite as far along as we hoped for. that was an important market for us. he couldn't quite give up on the inflation risk just yet. secondly, we want to see confirmation that the recession risk in europe and the u.s. continues to

stop speaking -- and changing their minds literally on a weekly basis, whether it's jim bullard, larry summersoever we've spoken about in the past larry said the fed is going to hit the brakes hard. a week before that, inflation was going to accelerate. i think there are officials and ex-officials are speaking far too much in an environment we don't know quite enough about. i'll admit i was wrong to an extent on inflation insofar it's stickier in shelter, stickier in services it's not coming down fast enough i think everybody is putting their finger the wind and making comments that probably don't make sense in this environment. >> i wonder if we need a vixx of fed speak. >> exactly. >> when the fed speak starts to get erratic, is that itself telling us something about being in a turning point >> i think that may be part of the point. they're also kind of in quicksand. the fed's credibility is on the line jerome powell is still suffering from his transitory comments in 2021 if the fed decides, hey, let's go ahead, we went back to 25 basis points let's go back to 50 this meeting, they're going

maybe it was just he was feeling pretty good about not having the larry summers and mohamed el-erianss back that he missed it up so much i think he's feeling good. he didn't want to pick a fight he sounded very switzerland-like to me. >> but also blessed the market conditions which have loose ned. >> i think the market and i did not expect that. he was pitching back, we need to be vigilant. in another way, he said in all the date we're seeing, people are starting to feel comfortable that inflation is coming down, the expectations in the surveying, and expectations are something they watch closely i think he's feeling good about that that showed his confidence today. i think that's why he didn't pick a fight with the market he said maybe they're right, maybe it will come down faster he doesn't believe it, he didn't think he'll able -- but he blessed if he's pleasantly surprised, he could come to the market's expectations more quick think. i thought it was very early for him to do that he may have misspoke, and maybe we'll get some pushback on that. i was surprised by that. >> he'll spe

sachs, last night, saying now there is just a 25% chance that we hit a recession, increasingly larry summerswe are looking at, from an investment standpoint, on macrostory for 2023? >> hey thanks for having me this morning maria. i think that you know what happened was friday we had a report that said 500,000 jobs were created last month. we see planes down below 200,000 good signs on employment front but basically, fund rate 6% if you take, the fed funds, currently current tightening plus the quantitative tightening, so actually people saying 5%, 5 1/4 that is kind of like saying that is a lot of malarkey because, we are seeing disinflation already prices are falling, i think one of the problems that happened earlier on is that the -- the fed tightened too much look what they did back in 2000 -- they tightened for two years basically didn't even for ease for another year after that right now if you look back, you know october aefsh is saying the market bottomed why did market bottom last october it bottomed last october because system almost blew up because of variable rates being set, they

alix: former treasury secretary larry summers. as you like that was the known unknowns and thing.i numbers tuesday. stocks are struggling for direction as we wrap up the week and abigail doolittle is tracking the moves. abigail: on the week bigger moves to the upside and downside, but mainly the downside. the s&p 500 had been up not long ago slightly. the tech heavy nasdaq is taking it harder. you can see energy rallying solidly up 3%. chips down about 2.6%. chips is a larger waiting and the nasdaq 100 is all about tech. this week has been so rocky for a big tank and the s&p 500. for big tech in particular we have the first down week for the nasdaq 100 of the year. we had five straight up weeks. the first down week in six weeks. we are up 15% when you net all this together. i would argue that investors are a little bit nervous about uncertainties with the inflation picture. we have cpi tuesday. if it comes in higher you could see losses accelerate on the idea that the fed will hike more. if it comes in line or lower maybe it will be the opposite end risk on. we have a fair amount

been on that, and based on how much the interest rates will grow, it will be half our gdp even larry summersn years by almost 7% we're going to talk about a lot of things. bullard, i can't wait for it yesterday was brutal, the worst day of the year. home depot ended down 20 points. walmart ended up trading higher, believe it or not, came all the way back here's what i want to know we can ask bullard what happened with home depot. you've got the down down -- they don't like it when the dow goes up because of the wealth effect. so that's playing in your hands, and it was the first time in over a decade that home depot is projecting, you know, this kind of same-store sales performance, which is not good. see, there's walmart, which almost closed up so the consumer is being aff

. >> i want you to listen to what one of your colleagues told one of my colleagues larry summers thisible that we'll have a soft landing than it did a few months ago. my continued fear, though, is exactly the one that you describe. that we had a set of inflation indicators during 2022, that were very strong that have now come back to earth. but they're still too high. >> that's a long way to go to a 2%, or 2.5% inflation rate in this country still. >> there is. i mean, i think we're still looking at 4% engrained inflation right. the labor market is really good. that means workers have bargaining power. wages should go up and push up prices. not overall a bad thing but it probably means interest rates are going to land hard. i think they're going to be higher than a decade than the ultra low interest rates we had through 2021. >> what about wage inflation? we've seen moderating in that but it is still kind of high. you talk about how the worker has the open hand. there are 11 million open jobs in this country. i feel like i see businesses, business owners, bosses more concerned about n

now the global markets team at bofa expecting a recession, former treasury secretary larry summers says soft landing more possible now than a few months ago. what is your take on what 24 looks like? you know the futures market pricing in quarter point rate hike next fed meeting in march we probably will have another one after that wait to hear what powell says tomorrow speaking with economic drub in d.c. jay powell on tomorrow. in that economic club what do you think it looks like? and how do you prepare for something else like that keith? >> well you know i think the reality maria is there is a lot more liquidity in the system than people appreciate. if you look at m2, everyone celebrating that m2 growth has come down actually gone negative but level of m in the system is enormous you've got we look at bink america, data, if you look at all income cohorts the lowest income cohort every won above from deposit and savings standpoint, where they were in 2019, companies are still flush with cash. another thing that is going on interesting i call stealth easing, stealth only because people

former director of the national economic council larry summers join financial expert to allocate assets and sanctions that could be used to expedite end of the war in ukraine. [applause] well i want to thank, it's great for you to host this yesterday and this is definitely one of those panels where i'm here at the mod ray tar so i can hear what our panelist has to say because this is a timely conversation. we have, you know, been drowning in the sort of one year since the invasion what i was struck by was framing of the conversation much more forward looking it seems to me than many of the discussions we've been having. we have to introduce panelist but i want to start out before we sort of roll up our sleeves and talk about the mechanics of what we might do. going forward, i think it is important to sort of get a level setting conversation going here around yet what have we learneds and not learned in one year because ting strikes me that a certain amount of humility is in order when it comes to tools that are available to us we can all say this comes to this threat of sanctions from t

larry summers saying it might be warranted. but one of our guests says inflation is trending lower, so he joins us with what he thinks the fed should do. >>> and with retail heavyweight walmart and home depot on deck, we look at four names in the group to shop or drop. but first, today's market has changed its tone right now, all in the red, the dow down 70 points broad market s&p 500 is down about 1% here. and the nasdaq is down 1.5% today. obviously, no surprise, we're seeing the most selling pressure as yields rise check out the two-year and ten-year hitting their highest level in three months today. energy, the biggest sector to the downside oil shedding more than 3% again. the dollar has been a head wind. keep an eye on this. this is not the part of the risk on story the energy side of things, take a look at nat gas, down to $2.24. the move from the highs last year has been nothing short of jaw dropping it's happening in europe, as well it's been blowing up trades where people thought this long position was a sure thing. a

larry summers was speaking friday and over the weekend.e says the chances of a soft landing are starting to recede a bit. stuart: all right i want to bring jeff sica into the show this monday morning because he bought tesla. he said he was going to buy tesla and i believe he did buy it at $103 a share. that was four weeks ago, five weeks ago? >> yeah, end of december, yup. stuart: okay, you still own it or have you sold it? >> and again, i promised you and lauren a fruit basket because i only bought it because i said i was going to buy it on the show and i haven't gotten you a fruit basket so that's coming, but because the stock has gone up higher, the fruit basket has to be bigger, or i might have to buy you a tesla. stuart: so you're still holding it? >> i'm still holding it but things like elon musk jumping into every political controversy is a concern, and we have coming up what i consider the most important day for tesla which on march 1 they have their investor meeting which they are live streaming from the gigafactory in texas. we'r

washington working, first for janet yellen in the white house council of advisers, and then for larry summers and geithner of the us treasury. so between 1998 and 2000, there was the peak of the asian financial crisis that became then global for emerging markets across board. and i wrote about it. i that policy worked and eventually i wrote book about the financial crisis, emerging markets. but then there were also times where slowly, slowly there was the beginning of having financial crises also in advanced enomies, you know, you had the dot com bubble and then the bust we had when i was in the white house, the collapse of yeltsin and the contagion to russia and, we were worried about russia and clothing at that time and the geopolitical consequences of that or pakistan imploding. there was a nuclear state and there were other crises in the advanced economies with the peak of it, of course, being the global financial crisis. but over time, i realized that you cannot be just an expert of economic monetary, currency and financial matters, because politics, geopolitics, law, technology, climate

larry summers saying it might be warranted.ation is trending lower, so he joins us with what he thinks the fed should do. >>> and with retail heavyweight walmart and home depot on deck, we look at four names in the group to shop or drop. but first, today's market has changed its tone right now, all in the red, t

the american rescue plan, run the economy hot, and then inflation went high and folks fight like larry summers and others were saying ceo, bumped up against the boundary. you libs, you want to throw money around, this is what happens. and they had some data on their side. it wasn't like a crazy argument. what's the significance of today's job report that shows you're still adding jobs while inflation is coming down? >> that's exactly it. how can you have 517,000 new jobs added while inflation is coming down? every economist i know today that i have contacted are scratching their heads. this is impossible. this goes against every textbook. well, i suggested to them that maybe the textbooks it's wrong. maybe they actually ought to look at biden onyx as a different kind of economics. and economics that is based upon what real people need and what will people. do the kitchen table discussion instead of the airy fairy discussions about free markets and privatization and all of the other, and globalization, all the things we used to talk about that made no sense to average working people. if you sta

he says it's too early to dethe claire victory against inflatiod former treasury secretary the larry summersarns of a while e. coyote moment for the economy. listen here, victoria. >> i think the economy is vulnerable to a wile e. coyote kind of moment where these things all come together and it's the like walking off a ledge sometime in the middle or latter part of this year. lauren: what do you think, victoria? >> yeah. this is what we've been talking to our clients about, lauren, is telling them, look, there's so many signals that we're not out of the woods yet. we have the inverted yield curve from three months to ten years, we got into money growth slowing. you've got earnings that have not been as strong as people anticipate thed. there's a lot of elements -- amendment thed. there's a lot of elements out there that are telling us the recession could still be coming, even some technical elements out there in down trend. i would agree maybe the market got a little ahead of itses in anticipating that the all-clear bell has been rung. you can have explore pose your to cyclicality, but you

larry summers told bloomberg we should think of ueda as ben bernanke. whether that's an encouraging thought is up to you, you decide. tom: m.i.t. has a different feeling they have growthiness back to 1957 and robert solow. bernanke was trained under the ministry of economic growth. the threat for japan that it's a busted thesis. how do you get out of it and maintain some sense of lawfulness or growth? jonathon: can we have a shout out to stan fischer. another student of fisher. tom: professor fisher told me once and paul samuelson, was so angry at fisher that he grabbed the stock out of his hand and threw it against the wall. that was the intensity that ueda and others were weaned on. there is an acuity but this guy is different than what we have seen with an l pp government linkage in japan. jonathon: we will try to pick up on that story when we talk about japanese central bank meeting. march 10 is the last meeting of the central bank of japan for governor kuroda and then we get payrolls as well. max kettner joins us from hsbc bank. you came in and you

and looking at what larry summers had to say earlier, he said this may be the most complicated economydo you come down on that the jobs number on friday surprised a lot of people. >> he's absolutely right and something that we have discussed on many mondays is that we have significant uncertainty on three key issues. one is the way the economy functions. we can talk and defend many different outlooks for the real economy over the course of the year two, inflation, i can think of three possible scenarios for inflation. and then finally policy and the disagreement between the markets and the fed. so there is an unusual level of uncertainty and then it feeds onto the structural uncertainty that we've been talking about, the change in globalization. so i completely agree with larry. it is a very difficult economy to read and we have to get our head around the notion that there are many potential outcomes and no one can convince you with a high-level of conviction and foundation that one will prevail we just don't know, becky. >> so what do you do where are you going to low your hat? >> so,

larry summers bank of australia. he's got some pedigree. yvonne: that is where you go to school about monetary policy. that was a quick warm-up. projected to be the next think of governor and facing a rough ride -- bank of japan governor. china. let's get to kathleen hays is here. what are markets expecting? kathleen: we know so little about him. stan fischer is nothing to sneeze at and he was at the boj from 1998 to 2005 good while he was there he helped usher in quantitative easing so he is no stranger to inventing and using innovative and extraordinary monetary policy tools. we know that. the announcement came out that he was said to be the next governor. at this point, he's not going to rush anything, who would? but is he going to guide the path toward normalization? a lot of yield curve control. there is speculation and reporting that amamiya could not separate himself from kuroda. the situation, do you really want to stay there. it is the boj person who says we are not going to keep apo j person this long. we are going to have an outs

larry summers called him japan's ben bernanke. he has not had a say in policymaking since 2005.ying he is neutral. but what does that mean? what is it a euphemism for? yvonne: he will be practical, thoughtful, he will not rush when it comes to normalizing policy. that is at least with the market is taking it in. the fact it is not amamiya, you're getting hawkish pricing when it comes to japanese assets. bond futures doing this right now. certainly there is a lot to watch. this nomination is not a done deal. rishaad: there are so many former students of his in the bank of japan that will make communication between himself and staff much easier. yvonne: professor is back. rishaad: that is his contention anyway. david: unless the flunked some of them. rishaad: then he has to go back to daddy, remember? david: 10 year yields were pushing towards the upper limit. at some point they will need to change. do we go back to 2% was the view yesterday that at some point we might get to that level. in the meantime, u.s. features are hitting a bit of a ceiling cap right now. the dollar is int

despite the fact we are getting growth warnings coming from the lakes -- likes of jamie dimon and larry summers. we continue to see a little bit of upside in oil prices. we gain ground for the first time in seven sessions in new york after oil near oversold territory. haidi: a volatile start to the trading session in asia. this is the picture when it comes to the first couple of minutes of the staggered open in australia. pretty flat but we did manage to see futures snapping three days of losses. asia-pacific stocks are in line for a fourth straight week of losses. take a look at chicago nikkei futures we are seeing a little bit of downside there as well as volatility that was seen going into the trading overnight head of the parliamentary hearing with the bank of japan head nominee. we're looking at dollar-yen posting the new high of 13536. shery: the fed continues to signal rate hikes ahead. kathleen hays is here with the latest. what are we expecting? >> we are expecting to get a read on the inflation number and a very special part of that. we know that jay powell is very focused on the pce

this is something larry summers and i agree quite profoundly on.shots as it were. the lack of a single common narrative that characterizes the current moment. the term is as much anything indicative of our current situation that we do not have a single thread where we can easily say right now all of the tensions in the world economy are driving from this single cause. it does not characterize the situation. we have been blindsided by factors which for instance three years ago the world will turn starting in china in february and march 2020. conventional, normal, globalized lifestyles grinding to a halt. that was not in anyone's decision said, in anyone's risk spectrum and that i think is what poly crisis struggles to grasp. annabelle: all right, well adam, thank you for your time. professor of history at columbia university. rishaad has more ahead from the global goldman sachs macro conference. haslinda: fascinating conversation. annabelle with adam, professor of history at columbia university. something to alert you to, taiwan's president will mee

about that, showed 4.3% annual rate the fed's index, bce indicator, running at 4.4%, i notice larry summersis essentially at 4% we are not yet at the fed's goal and finally, if you're the fed, you had a tough year, right. your whole transitory mistake, a period there when they gave markets incouragement on a pause or pivot and pulled both of those back the one thing you cannot do is pull your foot off the break too soon and don't accomplish the job. that would be catastrophic for the fed whose credibility is already under some pressure. so they have to err on the conservative side. and the idea this is going to be the last hike announced today, i don't see it and the idea that just three or four months from now we'll be doing rate cuts in light of the latest economic data i don't get that either maybe i'm wrong but i don't get it. >> in light of that, are you expecting that powell is going to come out and be hawkish today and there's a risk of the rhetoric being stronger in that sense than what the market is anticipating because the financial conditions have loosened it's a tight rope to wa

larry: ama: ama: when are we going? this summer. larry: abc 7 field trip. spencer: let's do that.his theme song already -- spencer: that's got a ring to it. ama: i think it will be a fun attraction. larry: the embarrassment will begin when we tweet that out. kristen: but did you pay for your check mark? your check mark? larry: that's it for ♪ ready to feel what it's like? when you can du more with less asthma. it's possible with dupixent. dupixent is not for sudden breathing problems. it's an add-on treatment for specific types of moderate-to-severe asthma. and can help improve lung function for better breathing in as little as two weeks. dupixent helps prevent asthma attacks... and can even reduce or eliminate oral steroids. are you in? dupixent can cause allergic reactions that can be severe. get help right away if you have rash, chest pain, worsening shortness of breath, tingling or numbness in your limbs. tell your doctor about new or worsening joint aches and pain, or a parasitic infection. don't change or stop asthma medicines, including steroids, without talking to your doc

never quote larry summers on the weekend. tom: was a transitory moment.s about this big game. i think for americans this is completely foreign, the talks of london are flying to milan to play jonathan:. champions lake. tom:'s at a bigger deal than premier league? jonathan: for some it is. tom: they play their best players? jonathan: without a doubt. he lay -- you play your best players because there is huge honey if you advance. tom: work and i watch this? jonathan: paramount. the two teams are not in form, let's put it that way, at all. ac milan used to be a giant port. tom: when do we learn who wins the championship? jonathan: i think in may. usually the end of may. tom: do the players get upset they are playing for three trophies? jonathan: no, you want to play the champions league. if you really have ambition you want to be in the four top teams to go to the championship leg. tom: whoever wins, lisa, gets to go to disneyland paris. jonathan: is that just like tradition? didn't brady used to do that do? lisa: i am not an expert on disneyland. jonathan: