i do want to turn to our conversation i just had with larry summers. i know you were watching that last segment. what did you think of his warning? an ominous one, frankly, about those tariffs. >> well, i have an economics background, too, of course, not to the same depth probably as larry summers. but everything i heard i agree with 100%. the american economy needs confidence. it needs stability. it doesn't need the kind of uncertainty that's being interjected on a regular basis. and that uncertainty causes people to freeze up. and we need people to risk money in order to create more jobs. and they're not going to do it if we keep hearing the kind of things we're hearing emanating from washington, dc. >> so do you give any credence to this, this thought that this is all part of the negotiation, the give and take, the media is reporting on it, but the give and takes of these conversations is what happens behind closed doors and how the sausage of negotiation is made. do you buy that at all? >> well, if there's consistency to it, then you can have those

former treasury secretary larry summers. mr.secretary, thank you so much for being with us. >> with you, casey. >> wonderful to have you. let me just start with the very basic question that is on everybody's minds today. given everything that we are seeing with the economy, do you think we're headed for a recession? >> i think. >> we're. >> we're on. >> the real. >> possibility of it. i would. >> have said a couple. >> of months. >> ago that a. >> recession was. >> really unlikely this year. now, it's probably not 50 over 50, but it's getting close to 50 over 50. and there's one central reason, which is that we've had economic policies that have been completely counterproductive. all of this emphasis on tariffs and all of the ambiguity and uncertainty created about tariffs has, ironically, both chilled demand, made it businesses not invest, made consumers think they should hold off before making big spending commitments. and usually when you do something like that, prices go down. but this time, when people are worried they're n

and now the alarm bells are ringing, including from former treasury secretary larry summers. remember, he is the same economist who warned president biden about inflation when his administration was saying it would be a temporary pain. >> on january 1st. no one thought that a recession was a substantial likelihood, and today market prices and consensus opinions of economists suggest a very real risk of recession. >> joining me now, white house economics and economic policy reporter for the wall street journal, brian schwartz and cnn political commentators ashley allison and shermichael singleton. i'll begin with who had me tongue tied at the beginning. maybe i'm thinking about what's going on in this market. so president trump's recession talk sent the markets plunging, as you all saw, the s&p 500 down 2.7% today. your paper, the wall street journal, the home page says wall street fears trump will wreck the soft landing. so the question everyone is asking is, is the economy really in danger of a recession? >> well, it's a question of the uncertainty to your point. i mean, thi

former treasury secretary larry summers joins us next. >> amid upheaval and sweeping changes. >> the president of the united states. >> trump heads to capitol hill to share what's next. follow cnn for complete coverage and in-depth analysis. the presidential address to congress tonight at eight on cnn. >> it takes dedication to leave your life's work rock solid for generations. at ubs, we match your ambition with tailored advice to craft a unique outcome for you. advice is our craft. >> bye bye. >> cough chest congestion. hello. 12 hours of relief. >> 12 hours. >> not coughing. >> hashtag still not coughing. >> mucinex dm gives you 12 hours of relief from chest congestion in any type of cough, day or night. mucinex dm its comeback. >> season. >> weight loss. >> for so long. >> i felt stuck. >> i tried and. >> tried again. >> lost weight. >> gained it. >> back. >> but it means change. >> zeb pounds for adults with obesity. >> to help lose weight. >> and keep it off. >> activating two naturally occurring hormone receptors in my body works differently. it's changing what i believe is po

treasury secretary and bloomberg contributor larry summers speaking with bloomberg's david westin ons of a recession. recession part of the mix, but also the selloff in tech and mag seven and central to that has been the pull down when it comes to nvidia. down about 30% this stock from its previous records. and here is the valuation story in terms of the multiples, trading now at 23 times forward price-to-earnings, this is the context. you are back to levels when it comes to the multiples that we haven't seen since the launch of chatgpt. is that an opening for those that want exposure to nvidia or a warning sign that maybe there's is further downside to this key stock around ai accelerators. let's have a look at the inflation story, ties back to what larry summers said about it recession risk to what extent will inflation be another headwind if we see a tick up? the data crossing at 12: 30 u.k. time. headline is expected to come in at 2.9%. key data point for you today. the opening trade is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ our xfinity network is built for streaming all the stuff people lov

tom: larry summers there. here is the historical context in the u.s. level since the 1940's. pretty ominous for some, but that is where you are in terms of the terror of low to imposed on the u.s. economy and its trading partners. let's take a look at german sovereign debt, because there was a linkage. to what extent will the spend all on defense offset the tariff impact? here is what is happening in terms of the yield jump we have not seen since the 1990's. 2.7% on the benchmark 10 year. there is plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ our xfinity network is built for streaming all the stuff people love. how can it get any better? -i'm just spitballin' here, but, what if we offer people apple tv+, netflix and peacock? for one low monthly price. -yes. so, people could stream the shows they love. and we could call it... xfinity streamsaver! mmmmm. what about something like: streamsaver? ooooooo. -i love that. add streamsaver with apple tv+, netflix and peacock included for only $15 a month... and stream all your favorite entertainment,

we should probably be planning for is a grand bargain with china that sort of returns to a more larry summers-style america. i don't see how that's plausible. >> this is not a normal comment. it's analytical. i get the sense, none of us really know, because i take your framework just there. let's rip van winkle a months and a half. look at the russia, view on russia that permeates this national security team, including marco rubio, including security advisor waltz. don't remember anyone predicting certainly the idea trump wanted to bring the war to the close. not to the extent, pace, aggressiveness as being built with russia. that's why i have a lot of mental uncertainty about where this china relationship could go. this is the issue. i can can see widely divergent path which seem equally likely. coy see a hard decoupling where the tariffs come out tomorrow. china responds differently than i think they respond. and maybe they go more aggressive because their calculation is we don't think trump's interested in a deal anymore. our reaction around the first round of tariffs was very mild. it was clair

loss in confidence which could have wider consequences, according to former treasury secretary larry summers. >> on january 1st, no one thought that a recession was a substantial likelihood, and today market prices and consensus opinions of economists suggest a very real risk of recession. >> joining me now to talk about all of this. jackie kucinich, cnn political analyst and washington bureau chief for the washington for the boston globe. chuck rocha, former senior advisor for bernie sanders presidential campaigns. and ashley davis, former white house official under george w. bush. i want to bring it to the group chat now because and maybe start with you, ashley, welcome to the table. thank you. can you have and complain about biden nomics without biden? >> i don't think this ever works. first of all, good morning and thanks for having me on your show. and your voice is so calming. i don't think that blaming a prior administration is ever a good idea, because you're automatically looking like you're on the defense. >> yeah, also checks notes. it's march. like it is not a january conversatio

i mean, larry summers just said, and i do not want this to be true, i want trump to stop tormenting theeconomy like this. but he said just today that 50% chance we could be heading to a trump session to a recession, that's not what we want. so what i'm hoping is that he listens to some people who will cool this whole thing down in terms of what he's doing across the world, and that we can get back to doing some actual work. and of course, the things he's doing to the hurting, ransacking the government to find money to pay for his billionaire buddies tax cuts, the debt that we're going to see added to $4 trillion. it's an unbelievable curve that we're going to see if this house budget goes through, and then you go from there to what he's been doing to these agencies that are needed to do things like approve medical devices. big part of our economy that are needed to help farmers get loans. this is all part of the ecosystem that is america. and that's why people are so off in red districts and red states right now. >> yeah, if you can just stay with us, i need to get a quick break in. i w

we heard from larry summers yesterday. he's the former treasury secretary. here's what he said about what. >> he thinks is. >> going on and what is impacting wall street and main. >> street. >> people depend upon. >> predictability, predictability. >> of policy. >> predictability of what the central bank. >> is going to do. >> predictability about. >> the enforcement. >> of law. >> predictability about their. supply chains. >> and we've. >> given up all. >> of that. >> with surprise after surprise after surprise. >> now, he went on to say that. earlier in the year, he would. >> not have predicted. >> a recession. now he's. >> about. >> 5050. however. goldman sachs goes on to say that they believe there's a 20% chance of a recession just up slightly from 15%. that is not very high odds. the overall economy right now is pretty sturdy. we are grappling with constant changes in economic policy. jerome powell said last week that he believes that we need to wait and see what's going to happen, because before we can make any determinations about the economy, he sai

. >> as for the possibility of a recession, here's former treasury secretary larry summers earlier today on cnn. >> on january 1st. no one thought that a recession was a substantial likelihood, and today, market prices and consensus opinions of economists suggest a very real risk of recession. i think we've got a real possibility of a vicious cycle where weakening economy leads to weaker markets and then weaker markets lead to a weakening economy. >> i want to start things off with cnn chief white house correspondent kaitlan collins, who also anchors the source at the top of the next hour. what is the mood inside the white house today, and why is the country not hearing from trump? >> it's quite remarkable, anderson, and just to give people a sense of how this works at the white house, typically they put out the schedule and there will be several events on trump's schedule that are closed to the press. as was the case today, there were three events on his schedule this afternoon, and more likely than not, one of them at least opens up to the press. that is often when you see the presiden

we also heard the same thing from the former treasury secretary, larry summers, who said that would also be self-inflicted. now, the markets this morning have been reacting at every step of the way along this news cycle. it will be interesting to see if we get any readout from the 5 p.m. business roundtable that the president is holding later today, and whether or not business leaders can try to pull back president trump from some of these more rash tariff decisions, of course, rattling markets and american consumers who are looking for some certainty right now, wolf. >> we'll see what happens, and we'll monitor what the president has to say. later today. he was silent on all of this yesterday. vanessa yurkevich and alayna treene reporting for us to both of you. thank you. there's more breaking news we're following right now. we're expecting a cliffhanger vote later today on a spending bill. congress and the house speaker, mike johnson, scrambling right now to avoid a full scale federal government shutdown as the deadline draws closer and closer. i want to go live to cnn congressional co

former treasury secretary larry summers, he said there's now a risk of a spiral here caused in part by trump policies. take a listen to what summers said. >> okay. >> this is pretty much a self-inflicted wound. i think we've got a real possibility of a vicious cycle where weakening economy leads to weaker markets and then weaker markets lead to a weakening economy. so i'm pretty worried about the whole situation. >> and he says now it's moving closer to 5050. as far as a potential recession in 2025, which is crazy. >> it is. where are you seeing what are the industries that are really having the worst time? >> well, i'll tell you what. the biggest winners after the election have turned into the biggest losers in the past few days, especially the magnificent seven. those high flying stocks that you and i have spoken a lot about. they've been grounded in a big way. the best performer yesterday, the best performer was amazon, down 2%. apple and meta 5%. 4%. nvidia as well. but look at tesla. a 15% loss yesterday. worst day for tesla since covid. there's a growing amount of concern on wall

treasury secretary larry summers has a different take. >> on january 1st. no one thought that a recession was a substantial likelihood, and. >> today, market prices. >> and consensus. >> opinions of. economists suggest. >> a very. >> real risk. >> of recession. >> now, america's neighbor to the north has been responding forcefully to trump's tariff plans, with the ontario premier issuing a warning if the trade war escalates. doug ford says that he is moving forward with a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to three u.s. states, but says that he'll turn off access completely if the u.s. adds new tariffs on canadian goods. and ford says that trump's moves aren't working. >> there's no reason for a recession. i call it the self-made donald trump recession. he he ran on a mandate to lower prices to make sure we didn't have inflation, to create more jobs. and it's backfired. >> now, we've already seen u.s. alcohol products being removed from shelves in canada. and the premier of british columbia says that people there support the move. >> the feeling that many

we also heard from former treasury secretary larry summers, who put those odds closer to 50%. however, wolf, we are not in recessionary territory just yet. we also heard from jerome powell, who said the fed chair, who said that the economy is in a good place right now, but we are seeing some warnings from major retailers just this morning, delta slashed their earnings forecast by about half. and kohl's saying that it's going to be a turbulent 2025. you can see those stock prices. they're down on that news. but we are waiting to hear from the president today. we did not hear from him yesterday. waiting to hear from the president today about any more news around tariffs or the economy. this will be critical as wall street continues to digest this news coming off of their worst day of 2025. wolf. >> we'll keep monitoring all these developments vanessa yurkevich in new york. thank you very much. there's more breaking news we're following at any moment. the house speaker, mike johnson, will answer questions from reporters as he fights to get his spending bill through. setting up a

i mean, i was talking to larry summers yesterday about this really more than anything, right. if you have a consistent tariff policy, fine. what the market is having a big problem with is the back and forth and back and forth. how do you see that as being helpful, especially when it has to do with our neighbor? >> it's easy to have a simple explanation to say trump did that. when you put the stock market numbers on the screen, there's kind of chaos going on capitol hill right now, right? we're not going to have a federal budget, right? debt ceiling government shutdown in terms of what makes an economy move, the mechanics of an economy that matters a little more than like the price of a piece of wood from canada. candidly. >> that's ironic, and i wanted to just pinpoint the statement there, because what we have to realize is that that budget shutdown, that gridlock that you're seeing here, the fact that trump is, is being inconsistent at best. those are all republicans, like republicans have. the white house, republicans have the united states senate, and republicans have the u

don't think you could say in good faith say i think what we're planning for is to return to a larry summers style. i don't see how that is plausible. >> this is an analytical comment. i get the sense none of us really know. because i take your framework just there, let's rip van winkle a month and a half. what permeates this is i just don't remember anyone predicting the idea that trump wanted to bring the war to a close. not to the extent and the pace as being built with russia. that is why i have mental uncertainty with where the relationship is going to go. i can see a widely divergent path. i can see a hard decoupling and the tariffs respond differently than i think they will respond. they go more aggressive because their calculation is we don't think trump is interested in a deal anymore. their reaction to the first round of tariffs was mild. they were trying to preserve diplomatic space and a few companies on this list and very moderate tariffs on a very small chunk of u.s. economy. let's imagine they go hard tomorrow in response to this. trump takes on a front and now we see a spiral

and you have very serious economists from starting with larry summers and all the way on down who areking up at the horizon right now and saying, it's not guaranteed, we're going to have it. but it's becoming increasingly likely, especially if trump continues down the path that he's continuing with these policies. >> i mean, i'm not going to play it again because i've played it a million times. but trump ran explicitly on juicing the economy on the price of eggs. he called it the grocery, the best jobs, the biggest paychecks, the brightest economic future that the world has ever seen. these weren't messages from when he was claiming he was the actual victor in 2020. these are messages from october of last year. he ran on rapidly deflating inflation, quickly bringing down prices and reigniting explosive economic growth. everything he's done is the opposite of everything he promised, and i know there's some debate on and off television about whether the normal laws of politics apply to him. they may or may not. i believe they do. they certainly. they sure as hell apply to everyone who's

larry summers, who was probably the most prominent democratic economist in our country, to tell anyone president of the united states, that the answer to runaway inflation is not more government spending. but that's exactly what the inflation reduction act did. but that's not all. not only did the inflation reduction act do nothing for inflation, it actually did what democrats have wrongly accused republicans of doing, it benefited high earners at the expense of ordinary americans. you don't have to take my word for it. just look at the data. look at the facts. by some estimates, the inflation reduction act's electric vehicle and charging infrastructure provisions are projected to cost $180 billion over the next decade. the average cost of an electric vehicle is nearly 7,000 more than an internal combustion engine in 2023. so most working class families, rather than pay $7,000 more for an electric vehicle, assuming they wanted an electric vehicle, have 079ed for the -- have 079ed for the lower-priced internal combustion engine. so the ones that were taking advantage of the subsidy of $

summer. good afternoon. thanks for joining us. i'm larry beil. >> and i'm kristen z. we'll have more on those stories in just a few moments. but first, let's begin with the weather. and while it's beautiful today and warm, that's about to change. >> because rain is on the way back to the bay area. abc seven news meteorologist sandhya patel here with your weekend forecast. hi, sandhya. >> hi, there. yeah, larry and kristen. it's hard to believe when you look at these temperatures that it's really winter here in the bay area. it's going to change quickly. we have a level one system coming in as we're tracking it on live doppler seven. it's already kicking up the surf beach hazard statement 9 p.m. tonight until 9 a.m. tomorrow. watch out for those breakers. they'll be building, replaced by a high surf advisory this upcoming weekend as we see wave heights up to 19ft. showers come in tomorrow night, but there will be very spotty sunday. scattered showers for our entire forecast area. even a slight chance of thunder. i'll be back to let you know if it's going to be a washou