and for more on the group's research i'm joined now by professor lars fels the chairman of the german council of economic experts thank you so much for joining us this afternoon we just heard about your research which says that a recession cannot be avoided how bad could it be. well actually decrease 0 g.d.p. over the whole year. of high or in 4 percent. is one of florists and areas already so we are in the basic scenario you know bit more optimistic and contain the defects to a minus a 2.8 percent course this year so we are not as pessimistic. are we don't think. the economy will. be good it's g.d.p. is reduced to digit figures. let's talk a little more about your level of pessimism. i mean it's pretty clear that that in the short term we're going to experience a slowdown but how health quickly do you see the economy found think back after this crisis for example your research says that we're looking at a v. shaped curve which is the best case scenario walk us through that. well actually in a. v. shape scenario we think of 5 weeks shut down and 3 weeks. until the economy is coming ag