this isn't joel will lavorgna g you an excuse. weather was a factor which means there should be a snap back at some point in the spring. >> in terms of this bull run, how long would you expect? five years getting long in the tooth. >> we've been debating whether it could last as long as 2020 this time. because you didn't have a strong recovery off the bottom, more of a muted recovery off the bottom. it could last longer. here's the key feature. companies basically have pushed out financial obligations for three or four years at the minimum. very few companies if any in the s&p 500 can even go bankrupt. they don't owe it to 2017 or 2018 or 2019. it's hard to make that big top of the cycle call unless debt is due and has trouble refinancing it or unless you get a collapse in earnings. we said not that frothy on the coast. cycle could last longer than people think. >> adam is exactly right. business cycles do not die of old age and equities do not peak until the next recession. if you look at profit margins using gdp, they've peeked