no, iwas did not get marine le pen or melenchon's vote? no, i was not surprised. ction. what does that tell you? the candidate of the far left does not feel he has any thing in common with macron? it was a com plete common with macron? it was a complete copout, actually. he said he would ask supporters to say who they want to support. of course it is. it shows how fractured and tribal french politics is. the official socialist candidate got 6.5%. disastrous result for the socialist party. the romantic, idealistic far left candidate did well, but he didn't give a lead on voting against the national front and some of his voters will go and vote for front national and i think many more will go to macron and some will abstain. do you see this second round as macron's to lose? absolutely. he has a much better chance. he has positioned himself very skilfully at the centre of gravity of french politics. he can appeal for support to the right and the left. and already we are seeing quite a numberof the left. and already we are seeing quite a number of people coming out on

le pen or melenchon? what is the likelihood of macron?that lehave seen pen is the more market friendly potential second-round candidate , but interestingly we saw what happened in the u.s. when the news mentions go up. the candidate rises quickly so i think the market reaction, at least in terms of some volatility, was impressive. perhaps if you look at the french equity markets, volatility is not that high yet. jonathan: in the bond market we captured that story. you see the spread, it keeps blowing out, going out on 10 years at about 70 basis points. that kind of political risk in a sovereign space, talk to me about what you are hearing in european high-yield in a credit-based at the time of this at theal -- credit space timef this political uncertainty? carl: the good news is you are fairly valued by my analysis. you can look at the spread between the european high-yield index and u.s. high-yield index. i do some further massaging on that because you have to adjust for a very major difference in the ratings next between the two makes -

would it be le pen or melenchon?> le pen is actually the more market friendly potential candidate, but interestingly we saw what happened in the u.s. when the news mansions goes up, the candidate rises quickly. the market reaction at least in terms of some volatility was impressive. if you look at french equity markets, volatility is not that high yet. jonathan: using the polls and the chances of melenchon and le pen winning, the spread keeps blowing out. the 10 is about 70 basis points. that kind of political risk and a sovereign space, you're talking about what you're seeing in european high-yield and a credit at the time of this political uncertainty that dominates european markets at least for the next several months. >> the good news is that you are fairly valued by my analysis. you can look at the spread between the european high-yield index and the u.s. high-yield index and i would be further massaging on that because you have to adjust for a very major difference in the ratings index between the two markets.

if it's melenchon or marine le pen, this will undermine europe completely. we don't know what will happen. or me, one of the big things is how badly francois hollande has led his party. he's been unwilling to leave the stage early enough to let them be credible. ifjeremy corbyn had left the stage early enough, the labour party could have rebuilt. there's probably no more important than no and there is a terrible legacy to look up. he couldn't made it clear he wasn't going to be the candidate early. yes, there could have been a much stronger candidate than hamon, that's for sure. he's more or less faded away, is what the opinion polls are saying. the future then is the second round. is it going to be a clear—cut enough result or will we still have people saying it was only one or 2% but decided? the turnout will be important at the second round. we now at midday her much participation we have. if it's historically low, then marine le pen stands a lot of chances, because if it is melenchon or marine le pen, some people will not bother go cavorting. do you remem

what would a marine le pen or a melenchon victory mean for people?nchon wants to renegotiate many central tenets of the eu, if he doesn't get what he wants, he said he would be a supporter of leaving the eu. perhaps they will do well out of this situation, but you wonder whether emmanuel macron might gaina wonder whether emmanuel macron might gain a little bit today. do you want a candidate who seems to run with the news, all someone who is a voice of reason? the news, all someone who is a voice of reason? someone seen as authoritative? that of reason? someone seen as authoritative ? that could of reason? someone seen as authoritative? that could be macro abu —— emmanuel macron. maybe the police had interviewed this man and let him go, but you can't start blaming the police, especially if you are a candidate on the right. it will be quite hard to know how to play it over the next few days. will be quite hard to know how to play it over the next few daysm is allup play it over the next few daysm is all up for play it over the next few daysm is allupfo

and it may arise that you are going to have a president like marine le pen or jean—luc melenchon withoutent does have a say in a lot of the issues. perhaps the parliament, for example if marine le pen wins would agree to a referendum and most french are actually in favour of staying in the eurozone so it's not, you know, may not be a total disaster, it will make things extremely difficult here. it does indeed and that makes it difficult i guess to get any reforms through because let's be frank, france needs a lot of reforms, i keep getting told! the main economic challenge for any president, debt, told! the main economic challenge forany president, debt, deficit, how much the french government spends more than it actually earns, and of course the labour issue, the market. exactly. basically, the french didn't feel any kind of burden for example of the debt as of now because the rates were historically low and that is approaching and the gdp is 100% but if the rates go up as economic activity picks up and the month as it stands is back to the normal, you are going to see a big item in the

matt: how do you prepare for the small risk, the tail risk of a le pen victory or le pen/melenchon runoffard, impossible to have a perfect hedge in this situation. what we can try to do is to be long u.s. treasuries, long gold in the event of the victory of marine le pen. that is very hard to have a perfect hedge in this situation. event is --t this the probability of this event is very low. guy: let us talk about what the derivative effect of all of this is. i'm sure one person that will be watching this election very carefully is marriott draghi. -- mario draghi. pro-europeup with a candidate in office, what will that mean for mario draghi? bastien: we think that is essentially what we have to look after the elections because we have such an uncertain election in france, that the ecb cannot ake big moves, so if pro-europe candidate winds, probably emmanuel macron, that would be easier for the ecb to communicate. a very gradual exit. that will be easier for the ecb [indiscernible] in this case, we think that in the medium run, we can expect a further rise of the german -- in the second p

or precincts went for le pen? >> no, 45% of the voters either went for the far left or the far right, so le pen or melenchon. >> anti-euat's important is macron is also not from the two establishment parties. you've had not one of those two parties winning. he now has to go to parliamentary elections in june. he'll put up 550 candidates but had is new territory. le pen in 2012 won one district in all of france. this time she's won half of them. you'll have a much better showing in the parliamentary elections in june. that hasn't been factored in yet. >> she won half the districts this time which certainly, if you want to draw the analogy to mr. trump's victory, you would say, look at the map of red versus blue, and you see a lot of red all around the united states and pockets of blue. >> well, i think that's absol e absolutely right. macron himself is giving trump credit for giving him a boost because a lot of french voters don't like trump very much. some people are saying we've hit the peak of populism in europe. you saw that in the dutch vote. in germany things are turning against the far-right party. i would take a

so for them, the only chance they see is in the radical candidates like marine le pen or jean-luc melenchonthe left wing candidate. and not the traditional ones. >> all right. thank you very much. we'll be talking with you on the day, as well. see you then. well, now to israel. that country has been marking its annual holocaust remembrance day. it included the country coming to a standstill for two minutes today. ♪[music] >> now, the ritual is the centerpiece of commemoration for the jews murdered by nazi germany and its collaborators. an official ceremony in jerusalem, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu and members of his cabinet led a wreath-laying ceremony. well, this year, netanyahu issued a warning about what he called growing anti-semitism, especially here in europe. well, our next report introduces us to an orthodox jew living here in germany who is among those fighting prejudice and harassment. he says that it's important for jews to talk about and to report any anti-semitic incidents they experience. reporter: mikhail is an orthodox jew. and he's preparing for morning prayer

in terms of being able to predict who will win in the second round when we see it against a le pen or melenchondo not think we're out of the woods until past the second round. just been great to have you with us. nandini and vassili. -- jonathan: great-nephew with us. both of you will stay with us. -- great to have you with us. a new low on the 2017. we will discuss fixed income for a solid 30 minutes at 12:00 p.m. in new york. 5:00 p.m. in london. really, a friday night in hong kong. you should not be watching this but if you are, we are available. ♪ emma: i am emma chandra and this the hewlett-packard enterprise greenroom. comic up, dallas fed president robert callan -- rubber, live kaplan, dallas fed -- live from the dallas fed. ceo larryckrock's fink spoke with us earlier in this is what he had to say. larry fink: the market has to be validated. it moves up and needs to be validated. i do not look at that as different than any other time. the pe's are very high on a relative basis in the u.s. the pe's are higher than europe and asia. so, it have to be validated one way or another for. we ha

or how high do you rate the french elections? there is some concern that with a third of voters still undecided, you could end up with a marine le pen victory, which would be unexpected, or melenchonhere are just cointrea -- four candidates right now to make the second round. there are two important factors. one, is going back to 2016. big geopolitical shocks in terms of brexit and the trump victory. no one could have seen that coming. but on top of that, no one could have seen what happened to the markets next. had you known, what would you have done? was it a good environment to enter markets that were oversold in the lead up in the lead up and fear it leading to those things. will not know how markets react. having said that, the risks are evident. if marine le pen wins, which is unlikely at the moment, the risks are quite high. becauseold on to that, we are going to spend more time on the french risks in a moment. ambrose will stay with the show. it is a big day for u.s. banks. we will preview the earnings from bank of america and goldman sachs. and in france, the final leg. the sunday french elections loom large. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to the european market

see more and more of this, jean—luc melenchon has come up six points in the last month and there is talk of him, marine le pen and francois ffion, still on getting 20 orund, in a couple of weeks and then maybe, and who would bet against it, it could be macron and jean—luc melenchon or it could be marine le pen although she has imaged herself by reminding everyone that she is the daughter of the front nationale, saying that they we re front nationale, saying that they were not responsible for the round—up of world war two choose which previous people have apologised for. —— jews. which previous people have apologised for. -- jews. even comments like that she is going to lose support. it means that a lot of people who are floating are saying that actually she still hates jewish people. they have a ready cut food from the eu shorthaul trips, ba, and airlines are struggling, but... actually it isn't the world's favourite airline, most of those are from the middle east and the far east and ba is behaving increasingly like a budget airline and those of us like a budget airline and those of us who fly with them frequently are not happy. i feel sorry for thei

le pen is certainly trying to do. so the disaster scenario, while still unlikely, is not impossible. and, even though le pen, or melenchong france outside of the eu, or even dumping the euro, i think your correspondent was absolutely right. it would mean a disaster economically for france, and certainly would mean potentially the end, certainly, of an effective european union. >> let's talk about the effect on the european union at this point. we've already seen brexit come through and it's certainly a huge issue that investors have been weighing. whether or not the eu can continue to stand. i realize it's a question we've asked again and again over the last seven or eight years but every time one issue seems to get resolved it seems like something pops up somewhere else. it could be greece, what's happening there. it could be italy. it could be france. how -- how secure do you think the eu's future is at this point? >> well i would say look the news is not all grim. the economic news is actually improved substantially in terms of economic growth. now, reappearing in every european member state, which is quite rare. not

so i think even in the event where you would see le pen become president or melenchon become presidentfrexit is highly unlikely. what abo >> what about your current view at societe generale about the strength of the eurozone more broadly. we had brexit last year and various challenges over the last five years to the strength of the euro. is it past the worst or does this election remind us of the challenges? >> there are clearly challenges for the eurozone. we're seeing a cyclical recovery but we need to get the struktd wall reforms done at the national level and at the european level to make the eu eurozone more robust. this is what the work at the commission is about, building the capital markets union, the digital union, energy union. all of these projects are key. at the national level reform of labor markets, pension systems. all of these are key to addressing the underlying economy. >> how busy have you been on this topic in particular? are clients very concerned about this election? >> there's a lot of focus on the politics in europe. a lot of focus on brexit. continues to be qu

will france and marine le pen and the runoff, or even jean-luc melenchon? cron and le pen macron and le pen are still up there. very interesting polls. still, more than 30% of the electorate is undecided, so that makes it more fascinating. still with us, carsten brzeski, chief economist. the risks seem incredibly asymmetric here, but no one is holding back due to the uncertainty, are they? carsten: it is extremely close. from a market perspective, they have been concentrating on le pen. could she become president or not? what has not been discussed is melenchon, the new player who did extremely well during the tv campaign, the cv discussions, and now he is on the rise and the markets are trying to count him in as well as a factor. matt: i mean, the possibility of a le pen/macron would be a horrible scenario for the margaret, but they do not seem to be worried about it. i question is, are businesses, consumers, worried about it? is anyone holding back spending as of this? carsten: it is markets, i think, foreign investors, who are holding back investments a

either said was that marine le pen or jean-luc melenchon were slightly above 20%. -- weorning what weve point estimates for the first round that show the polls are fairly credible looking forward. i say this is what it's about. we went from 20% risk to below so that risk is kind of gone from markets. i think that's what it's about. francine: there are those who say we should be more cautious marine had one fourth the french voters with her, and she is in the runoff. i know polls indicate that macron look at around 68%, but what if? >> right, and that's what i meant by the risk going down to 10%. you can't say it is impossible. french, asis not napoleon liked to say. and of course, it's difficult to say what happens to voters. i think the key variable here is turner. in the -- is turnout. in the first round we had very good turnout, barely below what we had last time, which compared to brexit is a very large turnout. but today, it is not obvious to me that in the runoff people are going to go and vote for a mainstream candidate that may be was -- if we take into account the polls for t

or not? >> not necessarily. all eyes will be on how well melenchon or le pen do in the thet round, whether one of two will get to the second round. our assumption is le pen will be in the second round, full stop. le reaction will depend on pen's support. the big risk, and why we are thinking euro risk may be on the downside early next week is that there will be a better showing. le pen will get more support than currently employed by the polls. to give you an idea of what a panic threshold there could be for the market, back in february, when i was asking client in paris the question, what is the level of first round support for le pen? open the will blow effects of the second round in which she has a realistic chance of winning. 40% support in the first round. in march, as he got closer to the votes, that's threshold has dropped. we have been talking about 32%. the point being, if indeed le pen does better than what is implied by the polls at the moment, i think the markets may defensivea more stance. even if fillon or indeed macron end up competing against the pen in the second round, i do not think it will ma

there is a contingency plan in the event of an unexpected outcome, in particular of marine le pen or maybe melenchonoff. ecb -- inse, the which case, the ecb come in the short-term would change the relative quotas of what advised and maybe buy more french treasuries in the short-term. willwise, it can expand at in order to placate any panic that may happen. before the election, the ecb tot stay out and not be seen be intervening in any possible way. there is no economic case for the intervention right now. david: and all of the data you look at, how important are these polls in light of what we saw in the u k and u.s.? how much credence do you give them? richard: they are important because the markets are banking on a macron win. peoplenchon get support, are starting to rethink that. it is an important risk but not easily manage. i think -- we need to make sure we do not look at all of this through an anglo-saxon lens. things are different in france. the turnout among immigrant or second-generation immigrants may be low which may be a pot that macron can dive into. at the moment, things look less ce

le pen and jean—luc melenchon. the prospect of either candidate actually winning has left some in a spin. to have marine le pen, ort sure about him. some days he says white, sometimes black, we don't know exactly what he thinks. emmanuel macron and marine le pen are the front—runners in a close race. marine le pen wants to take france out of the eu, whereas emmanuel macron is a staunch supporter. if one of these two wins, it will have a dramatic impact. many here have watched brexit and donald trump, and say anything could happen. whatever the outcome, the people of tredegar and 0rvault will remain friends. time now to get the news, travel and weather where you are. good morning from bbc london news. a 4 year old boy has died after being hit by a car in north west london. it happened on montrose avenue in edgware at around 7 o'clock last night. the driver stopped and is helping police with their investigation. detectives are also asking for anyone else with information to come forward. 200 people have been moved to safety from a tower block in kensal town after a fire broke out. it took dozens of firefighters arou

way in which france's position within europe could actually change because le pen and melenchon are talking about renegotiating, orperhaps even pulling out of the european union. the most likely winner in all of this, possibly, is emmanuel macron, who is this very get-up-and-go, young independent candidate who is supposed to be extremely bright guy. limited political experience but he has certainly got a great deal of magnetism, and he's got barack obama's vote, that's for certain. and that may help him in terms of improving his international sort of recognition. >> sreenivasan: all right malcolm brabant joining us from paris tonight. thanks so much. >> reporter: you're very welcome. >> this is pbs newshour weekend, saturday. >> sreenivasan: winding up his ten-day asia-pacific tour, vice president mike pence has mended fences with long-time ally australia. in meetings today with prime minister malcolm turnbull, pence said the u.s. will now honor a refugee resettlement deal made during the obama administration. president trump once called it" dumb" in a tweet soon after taking office. it calls for the u.s. to accep

none of the candidates talk about relocations, he says, except for perhaps marine le pen and jean—luc melenchon, orny here look to the extremes. four days to go before the vote, and only two thirds of french voters say they are sure of their choice. last—minute deciders may prove the current polls wrong, and traditional parties worry they may suffer from a potentially record low turnout. evelyn has always voted for the republicans, but this time around, she tells me, trust is broken. she will abstain. translation: i am not going to vote for people who have been manipulating us for so long. whether it is one side or the other, they always promised a lot but nothing ever gets done. distrust of the political elite, job losses and calls for change, the stories from amiens resonate across france, and will determine the direction the country decides to take. thomas fessey, bbc news, amiens. hugh schofield is in marseille where the national front candidate marine le pen is holding a rally. there has been a lot of attention on that rally because the attack block the police uncovered a few days ago. how doe

le pen argan on the moves that have not been in power so i understand why people are supporting one or the other. >> melenchon has changed his mind so many times over the years. he used to be in favor of a closer european union and open borders. now his position is similar to ours. i think decoherence will make the difference. >> speaking of jean-luc melenchon, the far left candidate decided not to hold a rally yesterday and instead went on a boat ride. >> he went on a cruise along the northeastern canals, fishing for telling his supporters to keep the faith in the final stretch. take a listen to jean-luc melenchon. >> over the coming days we have to display total self-control. it is not always easy to keep a cool head. you have to keep it going with a particular fuel called humor and a mockery. the other idiots are pointing out on their print page in the newspaper, melenchon is a threat to the stock markets. thankfully i am seen as a threat. dangerous.he is very what do his supporters think? you can see the supporters along the canal have mixed opinions about how dangerous he is. >> i don't think he is too a

or le pen. the rise of a populist left, whether it's corbyn, bernie sanders, or melenchon here. f established parties, particularly the traditional left of centre. the gulf between the big metropolitan areas and the secondary towns and cities. here in paris, le pen only got 5% of the vote. in parts of northern france, she was on 30. so, very clear patterns. but in each country there are some peculiarities and it is those that might dictate the outcome here. she's no—trump, she is the change candidate but she comes with the baggage of her party's past image so will struggle to win. on the other hand he is no hillary clint hill. he is about saving the current system itself but managed to sell himself as a revolutionary. the contest is his to lose. but it's not a mere formality. many left—leaning voters hate his economic liberalism. they will abstain rather than vote for him. giving le pen a route to power, albeit an unlikely one. whatever happens in two weeks‘ time it is going to be interesting for france. obviously if marine le pen wins it will be. if macron wins, just think about

he would be the safe pair of hands if not fillon, but if it's melenchon or le pen, we need to rethink direction for markets quickly. a lot of assumptions about what happens next that could be very negative for european growth. >> they seem to be in a wait and see mode. >> geoff, thanks for racking up those air miles. >> great to be here. nice to see you. best of luck with christine lagarde later. >> geoff cutmore in town. >>> when we come back, we go to wilfred in paris. what do you have coming up? >> absolutely right. as geoff said we spent the air miles and we'll make the most of it and we'll add color about how the french press are framing the final three days of campaigning ahead of the all-important vote on sunday when "worldwide exchange" returns from washington and paris. >>> welcome back to a special "worldwide exchange" live in washington, d.c. to cover today's imf world bank spring meetings and live in paris where wilfred landed ahead of the french election. we turn to you. you do the front pages, wilfred. >> great stuff. let's look first of all at liberation, a left-wing ne

none of the candidates talk about relocations, he says, except for perhaps marine le pen and jean—luc melenchon, or to go before the vote, and only two thirds of french voters say they are sure of their choice. last—minute deciders may prove the current polls wrong, and traditional parties worry they may suffer from a potentially record low turnout. evelyn has always voted for the republicans, but this time around, she tells me, trust is broken. she will abstain. translation: i am not going to vote for people who have been manipulating us for so long. whether it is one side or the other, they always promised a lot but nothing ever gets done. distrust of the political elite, job losses and calls for change, the stories from amiens resonate across france, and will determine the direction the country decides to take. thomas fessey, bbc news, amiens. let's speak to our correspondent hugh schofield who's in marseille, where the national front candidate marine le pen is holding a rally. marine le pen is still on herfeet. is there a sense of worry, perhaps, with the polls that perhaps she might not get to

how high is the likelihood we get a melenchon or le pen as a winner in the second round? base case has been that we would end up with le pen versus macron in the second round, and macron would win give one versus le pen. it was always for macron to lose rather than for le pen to win. clearly, the developments in the last few days and weeks is something different. i think the risk we end up with a second round of le pen and melenchon is not zero. clearly, we have seen the france/germany spread wide and out again, up above 80 basis points. i think where we are now, i think one has to still think that it will be macron versus somebody else, and which outcome against le pen, he would probably win. against melenchon, i don't know. uncertainty in the french outcome in the last seven to eight days than we had in the previous seven to eight weeks, so i think it is -- we were talking about exit earlier. i think this is the real interesting story right now. because if we end up somehow with melenchon, le pen in the last round, it clearly changes the trajectory of brexit as well. if

if marine le pen becomes president, or if jean-lu jean-luc melenchon becomes president, we'll see oneoriented toward the east. they are very much in bedith vladimir putin. melenchon, thean on the left, talks about renegotiating th borders of europe. putin, his greatest wish is to see the european union weakened and nato weakened and both of those things are very high on the agenda of marine le pen. so this is a deciding moment for the west as we know it. for all the alliances n structures build over 70 years. and i would say people are very nervous about that. here, in europe and i think sensible people in the united states are worried about that, too. >> incredible stuff to watch. all eyes are certainly going to be on the exit polls. christopher dickey for us, thank you. >>> it is one of his biggest initiatives, but critics argue that president trump's buy american program. >> it's a sham and actually helps companies that keep sending work overseas. that's next. t in here. t in here. so if you need anything, text me. do you play? ♪ ♪ use the chase mobile app to send money in just a t

not sure but if macron wins, substantial, brussels-based reform is lower than if we have a melenchon or le pen victory. you need an upset politically to force a different speed of reform for the eu. at the end of the day, the reason melenchon and look on- pen are risk is because of reform. the one size fit tall model, it does not fit anymore for the eu. david: you would have thought brexit would have been a message to brussels they have to reform. do you see movement in that direction? >> no. the euro is lowered from the outset. step back, when you have the range of economic zones in countries that develop differently, you look at greece, the currency has devalued a substantially before the euro was put in place. that mechanism does not exist anymore. you cannot assume the economics in these countries will adapt to the economics and france and germany. a huge problem that the monetary and fiscal policy does not manage to tear this economy. if you have one currency that countries have to give up, it is a lot of sovereignty. they do not do that. we need a parliament that is elected by the europe

kind of a victory for brexit and trump is, because if the ad of le pen and melenchon, it is nearly half of the vote. it is 23 plus 19 orike that. it is about a0%, 42%. leaving fillon and macron, who are pro—european ad about this level. it is a referendum fought against europe way. if if, by any chance we are in a situation where the two extremists, right and left extremists are defined the contenders, it would be a massive crisis for europe and, probably, a moment of historical instability in the country. we are out of time. one last thing, it is not the most probable option. i do not think it is the most probable option. even though the collection is unreadable at the moment. if you speak to any poster, they do not know. thank you for coming. all of these candidates are campaigning. each has come from are campaigning. each has come from a rally, they are going to rallies. marine le pen was in marseille. let's hear what she had to say. we have to protect the unity of our people. we have to protect them, how to do that if we are in permanent posterity? i want to protect the people i am part of, the people who have seen

pen and the hard left candidate jean—luc melenchon. neither are those are happy about that's plays in europe. what we have now is the potential run or run off between marine le as you can see at this graph, the french as this morning are more than 5.5%. that is the definition of a relief rally. we may see that initial burst of enthusiasm tailing offa initial burst of enthusiasm tailing off a little bit over the next couple of weeks because do not forget marine le pen is not be presidential run—off, it is not inconceivable she could win, even if all people say otherwise. at the moment, it seems the markets believe that emmanuel macron, he's the favourite, let's put it that way. what kind of economic policy does he have? what do they feel he might do? well, he wants to make life easier for businesses for a start. he was to reduce the burden of regulation for them. he wants to reduce taxation, he wants to reduce taxation, he wants to reduce taxation on businesses in particular and he wants to reduce public spending, cut down the number of public servants. they have the number of economic reforms in the pipeline. there is a potential hiccup here. do not forget t

le pen. said the of viewers far left contender jean-luc the populars candidate. melenchon ist gaining ground although he is in fourth place with francois fillon. either le pen wins and certain outcomes happen ors kind of situation continues as normal. this candidate is not anywhere near winning. concerns seem to be overdone about a le pen victory? guest: yes. i agree with that broadly. --are likely to get beyond against le pen. i think there is very little chance of le pen winning a victory in the second vote. if she does the euro would fall as a shock throughout europe. anna: the more fragmented this field is the more unpredictable how the voters behave in the second round becomes. guest: i disagree with that. people do not want to leave the euro. that is pretty strong. marine le pen has that as a central tenet. i do not think -- and see her having the popularity in the second vote particularly against macron. to my mind, the vote in may will get rid of a lot of the political risk in europe. macronhen you look at a victory, is there anything that changes under macron that would affect your investment strategy? guest: the issue under macron is he has not got a party kind him. what happens in

three or four weeks ago we were looking at le pen versus macron in the second round, now you have fillon and melenchonnough. they're within the margin of error, so no one can be 100% confident about the result on sunday. so there's a bit of risk premium in markets. and some investors have said we'll wait until after the result and then decide what we'll do. >> that's a fair point. that leads me to my next question. i was going ask how do you position for the first round. then i thought a lot of guests have told me there's no positioning really. a lot of people just want to wait and see what happens. is that the overriding sense on the part of clients? >> some people have taken the view that actually it's likely that it's still going to be macron/le pen. if you look at the polls for the second round, macron wins that comfortably. some people have said that's the likely outcome. i'll take a position on that. others, particularly u.s. investors that i've spoken to have said we can afford to wait. european equities have been a disappointment since the global financial crisis. why not wait a bit longer? if

or less the same. if it is ugo -- if it is —— if it is le pen it could be very different for the world. or if it is jean—luc melenchonld by regulators a decade ago that its maternity services needed to improve. the health care commission told the shrewsbury and telford trust that its monitoring of babies' heart rates during labour wasn't good enough and that its training of staff was inadequate. 0ur social affairs correspondent michael buchanan reports. she was very dependent on me. my life went round a clock. i had to give her medication at certain times, make sure herfeed was running 0k. i was more of a nurse and a carer than a mum. abbey was born in 2004 with brain injuries, including severe epilepsy and cerebral palsy. staff at the royal shrewsbury hospital failed to promptly deliver her, despite foetal heart traces indicating abbey was in distress. the errors led to abbey dying aged just 17 months. her heart rate went down, down and down. they didn't intervene. 0bviously they tried to move me to see if they could find a trace. there wasn't anything there. if they would have done theirjob and got me into theatre

if the five-star movement corral support, and they could come together with either melenchon or le penoking to segment the euro into a more integrated core and a less integrated periphery that goes back to its own currencies -- that is a big fiscal risk. there is a transmission from growth through two reduction of populism. the critical metric is to look at who benefits from the gdp growth. is it capital or is it labor? labor. lowercase-l since the early 1980's, the share of gdp according to labor has been hauling, while the capital has been rising. that has to recalibrate to diminish populism. it is not solely gdp increases that will drive that. francine: to simon's point, the populists that were voted to ther so far, including trump administration, are not necessarily the ones that want a fairer society. michael: i think this is all part of a really big tectonic shift. you get these so-called paradigm shifts. you get disruptive forces at the very start who are breaking away from the established system. sometime later, you get a new consensus and new ideas. i think we are on the cusp

distressing because one of the candidates, melenchon, the far won almostate, who 20% of the vote refused to give any indication if voters should vote for marine le pen orot. which means probably most of ,hese electors will vote white which means they will abstain. part of them will also vote for marine le pen because part of the electorate is s actually the same. burkhard: they both want to return to 60 as the age of retirement. both want to strengthen the purchasing power of the pension ears, of the small income people. for thet to cut taxes small people. you have eight or nine points on the program. all the economical and social questions that coincide. melenchon and even if was never very clear on it, i think he would have -- his discourse is either the eu changes or we leave the eu. as window, germany would never accept the rules of a far left party, so he would have probably ended up leaving the eu so the program in this sense would be the same. it is a volatile mix. we have already heard that perhaps marine le pen could emerge the victor in the second round of voting. do you buy into that? geraldine: theoretically, no. the social party, which onl

melenchon. on the le pen story, none of the u.s or u.k. markets every denomination risk.she keeps talking he's talkingthen s about risk of nominal assets in france. you should start to see capital flight to germany and switzerland. francine: i want to show you my terminal, the euro-dollar one month volatility. this is the chart. there you go. it brings us back to brexit. what will markers do on monday depending on who wins? gilles: obviously , if it is the configuration thatadam was mentioning, i think the market reaction can be very adverse. as i n many previous episodes, a lot of investors will try to reassure themselves by saying it's more complicated than that. will they be able to implement the policies. au could end up with manageable situation. the problem is that with euro skeptics in this race it is not so much what they would do, it is also what they could block. and that is the biggest issue. no matter what, we know that the european union as it works today is not complete. you cannot really have this if you have some sort of institutional paralysis in paris. j

or anti-le pen. markets success would win. we are back above 70. but it is not about le pen now, it is about jean-luc melenchon> very much far left. i think from the markets perspective there is anxiety about that. not only because of his leftist credentials but also because he is a skeptic. going around at a bit of an equilibrium south of 70 basis points. we were above 80 sometimes in february but that was out to 50 in january. i think that anxiety is edging higher. we are not at the panic levels we were at in february but it is heading in that direction. vonnie: yes. as soon as we have the french vote out of the way there are other things coming down the pike, including brexit negotiations but also things like earnings. how will earnings impact other assets? if we get good earnings in the u.s. and europe, that could potentially keep the market void while we are not looking over? earningsk that good would definitely put a little bit more into the reflation trade which i think has been on the back foot. the was -- there was an initial surge after the election. abigail had been looking at the 10 year yield rang

although marine le pen and a manual micron lead in most polls, francois fillon and jean—luc melenchon are also very much in the running. you can find out more about all of them at our website orhas called for calm over north korea's military programme. donald trump treated he was sending an armada, very powerful, he said, then it emerged that the aircraft carrier, carl vinson, was sailing in the opposite direction for exercises. the press secretary says it is now heading to north korea. our correspondent steve evans has the latests from a us air force base in south korea. later in the day there will be one of those exercises, which china actually thinks doesn't help the situation. it's a joint exercise between the air force and the us and the republic of south korea. it involves something like 80 aircraft. it happens every year, and every year north korea says it's practice for invasion. what china is suggesting is that the us puts a moratorium on these exercises and in return north korea puts a moratorium on its nuclear developments. this exercise here will involve 80 aircraft, 1000 us personnel, about 500 south korean personnel and aircraft from japanese bases as well. they

marine le pen and emmanuel macron lead in most polls — the right—wing francois fillon and far—left jean—luc melenchon are also in the running. you can find out more about all of them at bbc.com/news, ora's foreign ministry has called for an end to words or actions that could raise tensions further, over north korea's military programme. and there does seem to be some clarity now about whether the us is sending a naval battle group towards the korean peninsular. president trump had tweeted he was sending "an armada." "very powerful" he said. but then it emerged the aircraft carrier carl vinson was sailing in the opposite direction, on exercises. according to the white house press secretary, it is now heading for korea. the us and south korea are holding joint exercises in the region, right now — our correspondent steve evans brought me up to date from a us airforce base in south korea. later in the day, there will be one of these exercises which china does not think will help the situation. joint exercise between the us and the republic of south korea and building 80 craft. it is a regular exercise. every single year, north korea says it is practising for invasion. what china is sugge

melenchon's voters would go for. is it more likely that they go for a centrist candidate like macron or more likely they have more in common with le pen'sre a lot of elements in their platforms that were similar. one of the similarities was that the government is going to take care of you just like it used to 30 or 40 years ago. you're going to get jobs for life. you're not going to be fired. we're going to tax the rich to fund the poor. we're going to do all these kinds of things that sound terrific, very hard to execute and very hard to stay solvent if you execute them, but it's the kind of thing that appeals to young french voters. macron is telling them, no, we're not going to do much of that. what we want to do is prepare you to live in the 21st century. we want to make it easier for entrepreneurs to work, we want to reduce social charges on employment, particularly on self-employment and small and medium enterprises. all those kinds of things that i think most of us understand are relevant to a dynamic economy. but french young people don't necessarily agree with that and every time there's been an effort to reform labor laws in t

marine le pen and emmanuel macron lead in most polls, the right—wing francois fillon and far—left jean—luc melenchon are also in the running. you can find out more about all of them at bbc.com/news, orchina's foreign ministry has raised new worries about north korea's nuclear programme. and an end to words or actions that could raise tension further on the korean peninsular. the call comes after the white house press secretary said there was no confusion over the deployement of the uss carl vinson. the saga began on april the 8th when the aircraft carrier was told to leave singapore and sail north to waters near north korea. three days later president trump confirmed. for the whole week the ship and its escort sales in the opposite direction in the indian ocean and is now heading to the korean peninsula. our correspondent steve evans is at a us navy base in south korea and joins me from there live. what's the latest? this is an air force base and later in the day there will be one of those exercises which china actually thinks doesn't help the situation. it is a joint exercise between the air force and the us and the republic, —— and south korea. it happens every year, and every yea

melenchon versus le pen, that's a different outcome than macron versus le pen. in that case you wouldn't expect a surprise. >> what's the trade for europe then or for france? >> there's no trade. i think the big problem is is trying to anticipate political events. if you got the election of trump right, you probably short the market and lost your shirt. in many ways it's waiting to react to what actually happens, even if marine le pen gets in, people talk about frexit. the chances of her engineering france leaving the euro, leaving the eu, very, very low. most people in france want to remain in the eu, even if they want to vote for le pen. i think that's one thing we know about the eurozone, once you're in the euro, you want to stay in there whether you believe in austerity or not. greece is a perfect example. >> andrew, thank you very much for that. andrew perry says have there is no trade when it comes to france, just wait it out. >>> do e-mail the show. >> absolutely. easter is upon us, right? >> it is. we have something very special for you at the end of today's show. stay tuned. >> the address, of course, being streetsignseurope@cnbc.com. we're also a

le pen. there a re lessons melenchon and marine le pen. there are lessons in this notjust for france but those in brussels as well. very much so. in fact, the french today are voting for europe or they are voting for democracy against democracy. this is the first time you could say this is the year of france, in electoral terms. this is not only the most uncertain election in the history of the fifth republic, but it is the most important one, coming ata it is the most important one, coming at a key moment. there will be two interpretations. never two without three may mean brexit, trump and marine le pen or numbered two without three can mean austria, the netherlands and no france, a beacon of hope in the fight against populism. i'm bound to ask you, for our british viewers who are watching, which of these candidates would be better for watching, which of these candidates would be betterfor brexit watching, which of these candidates would be better for brexit and which would be better for brexit and which would be better for brexit and which would be worse for brexit? would be better for brexit and which would be worse for brexit7m depends which brexit you mean! chappell there