the xhb that tracks the group up 4% closing out the best weekly performance since june names like len narton which i want to call dr. hoorten and pulte group at fresh 52-week highs. but mike khouw says one name in the space could get nailed when it reports earnings next we can. mike. >> well, nailed. that's a little bit harsh. i'm not sure nailed is the way i put it we'll look at selling a call sfred in pulte homes which is reporting. when you sell a call spread it's not a bet that it's going to crater it's really more of the stock may hit a pause kind of a thing. so why we're are we sell a call spread this is a way you can express a neutral to bearish view obviously it's had a terrific run. this is also a situation where you look to collect premium. and this is a situation where going into earnings sometimes we see elevated options preemia yums and trying to dlekt that a nice thing like these out of the money credit spreads they tend to have a better nan 50 eye probability of profit. and the reason for that as we are about to demonstrate is that you can have three things happen to a stoc

in group is up more than 50% with names like len nar and poulty hitting fresh 52 weeks highs. dr horton preponderate are you putting in a down payment upon the home builders we thought about this bus of the note sfr fund saturate tom lee he wrote from october 20th to around april 20th it's a golden period of six months for the home builders. that's when they really perform, the seasonal period and when interest rates rise it's better for the trade. >> you see a company like poulty homes. third quarter order rate up 13% year over year, the et best since 2006 or something. the numbers back it up valuations back it up. the one concern is the name like phm from the middle of all to now. from 30 to 42 that's a significant move but to answer the original question, the highs in no i think these things can overshoot to the upside and go higher from here. >> i remember reading this note last year at this time tom put it for you to and worked like a classroom. >> nine out of the past ten years it worked. >> october 20th to april together 20th. talking outperformance they have had a nice