lichtman: all he did was ade the arnegarative scott: lichtman says with polls showing clinton and trump neck and neck, tomorrow's debates are more high stakes than usual. prof. lichtman: both candidates have such high negatives and so much to prove. scott: how important is it that they just get out clean? prof. lichtman: it shouldn't be important at all that they just avoid a gaffe, i think one of the big problems with media coverage is that they cover it like nascar, t everyoke but that's not criticly wt candates should be judged on. what candas should be judged on is their knowlee, visi, their values, their experience, their truthfulness. scott: buta campaign where truthfulness has been cota su mrs. clinton: i did not receive or send any matealhawas scott: lichtman says that standard seems unlikely. mr. trump: hillary clinton and her campaign of 2008tartedhe prchlian: we have in donald trump a completely unprecedented candidate, who has become known for making things up, for playing hard and fast with the truth. and then, of course, you have hillary clinton. people wonder what she sta

lichtman: donald trump is debates? everyone that you interview says, we are looking for substance, we don't care about the flash, that's what the voters tell you. well, these debates will be the test of how much they really mean that. sharyl: we set about three quarters of registered voters, more people who are not registered to vote, but we set about three quarters. scott: 146,311,000 registered voters so that would be 106 million. that's approaching super bowl status. some on the conservative side are talking about at least 80 million people watching. sharyl: thanks, scott. appreciate it. still ahead on "full measure" -- wildfires burning out west are an ongoing natural disaster. both the fires and cost of fighting them are spinning out of control. some claim congress is fiddling burning for more than two months on california's coastline known as big sur has just become the single costliest fire the u.s. forest service has ever battled. over $200 million tax dollars have been spent fighting it so far and it's only tw

scott: lichtman says that standard seems unlikely. mr. trump: hillary clinton and her campaign of 2008 started the birther controversy. prof. lichtman: we have in donald trump a completely unprecedented candidate, who has become known for making things up, for playing hard and fast with the truth. people wonder what she stands for and people wonder if she's too secretive, and not being honest enough with the american people. so you've got some pretty negative narratives going for both candidates, that they've gotta make sure don't become a tidal wave after the debates. scott: we've seen a lot of show business in the election so far, haven't we? is this going to be a continuation of that? prof. lichtman: donald trump is the master of showbiz, but the question is will that play in debates? everyone that you interview says, we are looking for substance, we don't care about the flash, that's what the voters tell you. well, these debates will be the test of how much they really mean that. sharyl: we set about three quarters of registered voter

lichtman: you're not paying me nearly enough to make a prediction now. you, like everyone else will have to wait a couple of weeks. mike on cam: just to be clear, we didn't pay him anything. lichtman has promised to make his call before the first september 26. for the now, i'm mike sacks. back to you. up next in today's health report.. some special parenting tips in honor of baby safety month. also -- a study done a decade ago on a link between obesity and cancer has a new reassessment out this afternoon. the results may shock you, knock down a 4-acre brush fire in mission viejo in orange county near arroyo trabuco golf course in today's healthy living.... september is baby safety and we've got some tips from the experts... on how to keep your baby the most protected. safety experts from babies-r-us say to always make sure your child's "crash tested." and newer seats are even "rollover tested." they also encourage parents to register the products. that way.. if there's ever a recall.. the manufacturer will contact you directly to let you know. it's been

but, before trump supporters start celebrating early, lichtman says not so fast. lichtman says: "i'm not reading a crystal ball, i'm going on patterns of history, and donald trump is a history shattering candidate.... he's said at least a dozen other things that would drive any other candidate out lichtman is the first to tell you that this is a system that relies on traditional factors -- but this is not a traditional election year -- and donald trump is not exactly a traditional candidate. in washington, doug luzader, fox news. on the heels of the debate... a busy campaign week in wisconsin. republican presidential nominee donald trump will be in waukesha today -- he'll be speaking at the expo center. anne holton -- the wife democratic v-p nominee tim kaine -- will be in milwaukee and kenosha tomorrow. and hillary clinton's daughter too lazy to stand in line ... now there's a solution. japanese automaker nissan thinks has developed a self-driving chair. you could call it a real "lazy-boy".... but they're actually called pro-pilots. the self-propelling chair dete

lichtman, thanks for coming on.will check back with you later on in this election cycle if you would be good enough to come on again. >> thank you, brit. >> and debate mone moderator lester holt got plenty of headlines. were they for the right reasons? we take a look at his performance coming up next. you owned your car for four years. you named it brad. you loved brad. and then you totaled him. you two had been through everything together. two boyfriends, three jobs... you're like nothing can replace brad. then liberty mutual calls... and you break into your happy dance. if you sign up for better car replacement™, we'll pay for a car that's a model year newer with 15,000 fewer miles than your old one. liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance. >> i was against the war in iraq just so you put it out. >> the record shows. >> the record shows that i'm right. >> stop and frisk, which worked very well here. way down. >> stop and frisk was ruled unconstitutional in new york because it largely singled out black a

blown apart (graphic) melissa thaxton and several others have sued samsung -- their lawyer jason lichtman argues this part - a support rod - is insufficient the spin cycle. "13 55 46 and as you see right there.. the rod can slide right out of this. and that's what causes the washing machine to blow apart. new graphic: in a statement late tuesday samsung told gma investigates? "in rare cases, affected units may experience abnormal vibrations that could pose a risk of personal injury or property damage when washing bedding, bulky or water-resistant items." the statement continues saying " it is important to note that samsung customers have complete millions of loads without incident since 2011." "if that would have hit my child, it would have been catastrophic. that's what i'm speaking out" also this midday.. a man is now in jail in connection to a massive home explosion that claimed the life of a fire chief in new york. here's that exclusive video showing the moments after the blast. you see fellow firefighters smelling gas..... first responders had just finished evacuating the neighborhoo

let's bring in american university history professor, alan lichtman.eys to the white house has correctly predict the outcome of every u.s. election since the in 1984.ndslide he sees donald trump pulling out a narrow win based on his metrics. this is very interesting. an awesome track record. but he said in the past year or so that this is one of the harder elections to call. at last night changed any of that? guest: it actually has. this is far and away the most difficult election i have looked at and i have been predicting and since 1984, when i was nine. electionat makes this so tough. my prediction system is based on electionevery american going back to 1860 guided by the theory that elections are judgments on the performance of the parties owning the white house. today, the democrats and i have 13 true false questions. if six of them go against the party in power, democrats, they are predicted losers. exactlyw, they are down six. for the first time in over 30 years, i have hedged my prediction because we have another historical force colliding with

allen lichtman. presidential historian and distinguished professor of history at american university. good to see you, professor. >> always. >> so you are not necessarily using polling to make this prediction, but instead, something you call historical keys to the white house to make this prediction. a series of true and false. explain. >> very simple. i develop the keys in 1981 based on an analysis of every election, retrospectively, from 1860 to 1980. the theory behind the keys is that presidential elections are essentially ref rememb lly refe party holding the white house. it probes the strength and performance of that party. and an answer of true always favors the reelection of a white house party, right now the democrats. if six or more of the keys, however, is false, you are going to predict the party in power is going to lose. right now, the incumbent democrats are down six keys. based on history, not the polls, pundits or anything like that, you would predict a donald trump victory. however,

allan lichtman. >> what would a trump presidency look like and are investors prepared? let's bring in william lee now, of citigroup. good to see you. you also put out a probability at citigroup and you last had hillary clinton winning by 65%. everybody has a model here. how do you get to your number and is that still where you guys are? >> these are poll based and it is -- our assessment of where the polls are going. i think the main question that you're asking is are the markets ready? and every client meeting i had for the last several months have always been asking about what would a trump victory mean for us? it is not considered the baseline, but everybody is considering it a black swan event and starting to prepare for it. >> you say a trump win risks slower growth or a recession. >> the basis of a lot of the optimistic projections is that there will be a lot of infrastructure spending, fiscal stimulus. we think the rhetoric will come to a halt when it comes to passing it through congress and getting it through ryan. ryan has got a one mandate in mind, to keep gov

their lawyer jason lichtman argues this part, a support rod, is insufficient to hold the tub in placeome unfastened during the spin cycle. >> you can see right here the rod can slide right out of this and that's what causes the washing machine to blow apart. >> in a state late tuesday samsung told gma investigates in rare cases affected units may experience abnormal vibrations that can pose a risk of personal injury or property damage when washing bedding, bulky or water resistant items. the statement continues saying it is important to note that samsung customers have completed hundreds of millions of loads without incident since 2011. >> if that would have hit my child, it would have been catastrophic, that's why i'm speaking out. >> reporter: abc news, new york. >>> "consumer reports" has suspended its recommendation of all samsung top loaders in response to the potential safety issues. 7 on your side is a partner with "consumer reports." >>> speaking of 7 on your side, time for ask finney. michael finney is here answering your questions sent in by facebook, twitter and e-mail. lei

their lawyer jason lichtman argues this part, a support rod is insufficient to hold the tub in place and can become unfastened during the spin cycle. >> see right here, the rod can slide right out and that's what causes it to blow apart. >> reporter: in a statement late tuesday, samsung told "gma investigates," in rare cases affect the units may experience abnormal vie brakes that could pose a risk of personal injury or property damage when washing bedding, bulky or water-resistant items. the statement continues, saying, it is important to note that samsung customers have completed hundreds of millions of loads without incident since 2011. >> if that would have hit my child, it would have been catastrophic. that's why i'm speaking out. consumers for the time being to only use the delicate cycle when washing bedding and bulky items. it says the lower spin speed lessens the risk of impact injuries due to that becoming dislodged. of course, you can contact samsung for more information and to determine if you have one of these affected washing machines. >> scary. >> something you never w

washington, the man who predicted the winner of the popular vote in every election since 1984, alan lichtmanr being with us. maureen, you're voting dangerously gets more dangerous as you look at polls in colorado, pennsylvania, wisconsin. they are all draws. who saw this coming? it's crazy. >> i can't think of anyone that saw this coming. >> what's happening out there? >> gosh, well, i agree with mark it's a lot of angry white men or maybe more than we knew existed. >> angry white men. that's it? >> a lot more. >> we heard there weren't enough angry white people to elect donald trump if he only gets 20% of the hispanic vote, 5% of the black vote. like mitt romney he's going to come up short. that doesn't appear to be the case. you can see trump win. >> my predictions are not based on any of the things everyone talks about. it's not based on demographic breakdown. it's not based on the polls. it's based on the study of history. after all i am obscure history professor. >> not obscure. we know and love you. we've grown up with you. what are some of the most important points that you think show

. >> alt lichtman looking at history.hich is a good indicator than these polls to pick a trump victory in november. great to see you. thank you so much. >> great to be here. >>> coming up, ted cruz endorsing donald trump, did trump apologize in the primaries? >>> what the candidates can learn about past debate performancesful we're rolling out the tames, look. >> crooked hillary clinton. >> crooked hillary. she's crooked hillary. let's face it, she's crooked hillary. it's not just a car... it's your daily retreat. go ahead, spoil yourself. the es and es hybrid. this is the pursuit of perfection. the wolf was huffing and puffing. like you do sometimes, grandpa? well, when you have copd, it can be hard to breathe. it can be hard to get air out, which can make it hard to get air in. so i talked to my doctor. she said... symbicort could help you breathe better, starting within 5 minutes. symbicort doesn't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden symptoms. symbicort helps provide significant improvement of your lung function. symbi