lincoln ellis is the chief investment officer at strategic financial group. lincoln joins us from the c.m.e. group in chicago. >> tom: happy new year. growing u.s. exports have been a bright spot at record leveling. is the strengthening dollar a threat as we move into the new year? >> tom, it's good to be with you. it could be, and it certainly will put a pinch, particularly on the margins as we move through highs in the dollar index, and we know that the majority -- not the majority, but over 25% of our exports are centered towards the europeans. a fall in their currency and a rise in our dollar does put a pinch in the margins and problems potentially for profits going into 2012. >> tom: 40 to 45% of earnings in the s&p 500 are out of the united states. does it bring down earnings expectation? >> it certainly has to, particularly given the fact that half of that number is focused in the emerging economies, as we know from past experience and even our more recent experience this year. when the developed economies have a cold, the emerging economies have a flu.