lisa: cookie mom, lisa. lemonis: i'm marcus. lisa: how are you doing? lemonis: nice to meet you. tell me what's going on here. cory: okay, so today we actually have a pop-up shop and customers come, they get a cookie. they sit down and wait for their car. lemonis: are we generating revenue? or are you giving them away? cory: the company buys them and then we give them. lemonis: very smart. whose idea was that? cory: both of our ideas. lemonis: okay. now more importantly, i love cookies. cory: so you got to try them. lemonis: so i'm a really tough judge, though. cory: okay. okay. i got you. lemonis: okay. cory: okay, this is the chocolate chip. they're all natural, and they have no preservatives added. lemonis: the chocolate chip was amazing. cory: thank you. second, this is a double dark. this is like the brownie. nice and soft in the middle. lemonis: it's delicious. cory: and sugar cookies. lemonis: is there orange in this cookie? orange peel? cory: it's a secret recipe. lemonis: okay. let me just tell you right now. lisa: oh, no. lemonis: if we do a deal, i'm gonna need to know

lisa: no.helps if you grow. 6.5% last year and 5% this year, morgan stanley, these are decent numbers. lisa: what is the reluctance to incur debt in a low interest world when we are trying to turbocharge growth? jonathan: coming up, drew matus. drew likes higher rates. from new york city this morning, good morning. futures unchanged on the s&p. on the 10, 1 .4753. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> the market is the fed as to whether or not it will be able to hold the line. >> we are seeing adjustments in how far it goes is the question. >> that is where the central banks will allow it. >> we will get higher inflation but mostly because the economy will come soaring back. >> it is good for the re-inflation and cyclical trade and that is where we want to be. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan:

lisa a: it depends where.ou are seeing a tighter labor market and things like manufacturing goods, transportation, the idea of packing your boxes for amazon. if there are fewer restaurants, will they have to pay more to attract employees? jonathan: let's hope they do. let's hope we get away from that business where we need to tip to pay in restaurants. lisa a: ooh, you are going to slip that in as a music -- as the music goes on. jonathan: just contrasting with other parts of the world. those people work hard. they deserve to be paid well a little later, greg valliere. in washington dc -- greg valliere in washington, d.c. this is bloomberg. karina: i'm karina mitchell. democrats begin the final push for president biden's 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus bill this week. democrats want to get the measure passed quickly before an earlier round of benefits runs out. the house plans a vote on friday, and the real action will be in private talks in the senate. some democrats are opposed to planets for a $15 an hour mini

lisa: oh, 100%. and i think that brings us to the question coming up before us how much is psident trump to blame for this? jonathan martin, i'm going to ask you to do something tricky briefly tell us about this massive -- a massive and really excellent piece that you did for "the new york times" with others on the 77 days leading up in the white house to -- what did you learn about the last days of president trump and what he was doing that may have had a role leading up to this riot? jonathan: people who knew the president well who worked with him and in some cases in congress and other cases literally his own staffers, lisa, they thought that he was just doing kind of trumpian bluffing. he knew he had lost the election and that he just wanted to salvage his legacy the best he could and so he was doing this shtick. and as the days went on, it became clear to them that somebody who had done kind of trumpian bluffing before, would eventually come to his senses on policy issue x. this case was differe

lisa: every thursday. jonathan: that person is lisa abramowicz.lisa's point, what is the kind of move the fed needs to respond to and what move can the fed let go? rubeela: what we've seen so far has been pretty quick and disruption of disruptive and unexpected. what we are hearing from fed officials as we are seeing an adjustment up. how far further this goes, that is the question. i don't think they want to come out now because the markets have pushed them to see at what level they get a response, and i think that is a tricky situation for the fed to manage right now. the message now seems to be that this is an adjustment up, a welcome move, rates going up, but it has been click. i think the markets might be looking for a way to elicit a response from the fed. i don't think it will come now. jonathan: more often then now we the real price action was happening in the belly of the curve. on the front end, we've had a mass discussion about the possibility the two-year rate to go into negative territory, and they started to push higher. what do you

lisa jennings was dead. the question for detectives was, did she take her own life or was this murder? here's keith morrison with "a crack in everything." >> reporter: it was his secret that started it. a secret gift. it was christmas eve in the year 2006, a little farm not far from a little town called buffalo -- buffalo, missouri. and on that farm, in the fine new house brad and lisa jennings had built for their family, the stockings were hung. the children were snug in their beds. and lisa was sitting up, very late, drinking wine -- and crying. meaning? well, who knew? but for one thing, with lisa in the way, brad couldn't sneak that secret of his into her stocking. which is what started it, the flaring argument, the slamming doors, the sudden silence. before amanda woke up to the sound of her dad on 911. >> and he's very hysterical. you know, he's -- he's crying -- can't really say anything other than, "get here quick, get here quick!" i heard that two or three times. >> reporter: such a complicated tale

lisa: [laughter] jonathan: can i go now? lisa: yes. jonathan: thank you. lisa: i am just keeping it real. futures down. -2/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm emma -- emma: with the first word news, i am emma chandra. the house is expected to approve the coronavirus relief bill, $1.9 trillion leaving americans one step closer to receiving the $1400 payments. it cannot be rolled under the fast track to get it through congress. president biden has undertaken his first use of military force since taking office carrying out , airstrikes in syria. the targets were iran backed groups believed to have made -- believed to be involved in recent rocket attacks. multiple facilities have been destroyed. bloomberg has learned a u.s. intelligence report implicates saudi arabia's crown prince in approving the murder of "washington post" journalist jamal khashoggi. the report could be declassified as early as today. that release reflects the biden administration's decision to recalibrate relations with saudi arabia. the prince has denied any involvement in the killing. bit

[laughter] lisa: what is he saying? tom: tell lisa to keep it up.athan: lisa is the reason this market is going up. lisa: i am just saying, they could understand what they might be missing. jonathan: coming up in the next hour, congressman brian steil, republican member of the house financial committee. looking forward to chair powell in front of that committee a little bit later. good morning. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg television, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ karina: in new york with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. president biden will order a government review of u.s. supply chains. the goal is to end the country's reliance on china and others for essential goods, but will offer no immediate solution for the shortfall of semiconductors that has delayed auto production at several factories. meanwhile, joe biden and canada's justin trudeau set aside differences over trade and other issues in their first meeting. they conducted a virtual summit for two hours. they said their nations would adopt unified approach towa

jonathan: lisa, do we have a debt shortage? lisa: this is the question. it is a structural issue. the u.s. government is doing a number of aspects that are technically leading to a demand for a place to put cash. this is the backdrop of an economy that is not recovering as quickly as people would like. it: 30 a.m. we have u.s. initial jobless claims. the are expected to come in a little bit. 750,000 new jobless claims we are expecting to get. why this is such a big problem, job creation is not nearly fast enough. 28,000 over the past three months versus one million at the end of october. it has stalled out. 10:00 a.m. we will possibly get some sign of the cure could be. president biden and vice president harris are meeting with senators on an infrastructure spending bill. what would be the main provision? how much support could they get for this? especially giving -- given how contentious the democratic party is with the current stimulus package. it will try to meet that demand for debt. they are selling $27 billion in 30 year bonds. the demand right now to be clear, the debt defi

lisa abramowicz? lisa: the 8:30 a.m. jobs report, i'm trying to understand what the market will respond to, a surprise to the up or down? we have seen incredible progress the last months. it stalled out in december when we saw a drop off. if we get a better than expected number, does that mean less emphasis on stimulus in washington? if it is worse than expected, doesn't mean momentum is in getting up to speed? is good news at this point good news? to build on the question of stimulus, president biden, vice president harris are meeting with house democratic leaders, following the vote last night and senate. it is clear the democrats want to go it alone, and you honed in on the key question, how much air does it take out of the room to do anything later in the year given the fact that republicans are not on board with this? this isn't a bipartisan washington right now. also today, fangio and draftkings ceo's are joining bloomberg television before the super bowl. the reason i'm interested to see what they have to say -- i

lisa: he gets caviar. tom: the biggest problem here, and the tradition of the new york -- economic club of new york, it is an polite up on the podium, as they call it, the stage, you can not eat until the speech is over, so you are down there chowing down, leaning over, taking lisa abramowicz's desert, and i have up there starving, unable to eat. jon: but you get a drink. equity futures up 12 pointed a bit of a lift. tom: it is a big move. jon: u.s. dollar, 12123. it is a huge move over the last three months. absolutely massive. tom: no question about it. as i mentioned in the 6:00 a.m. the idea of jp morgan up 32% from november 6, the russell 2000 up 40%est. liz and sanders joins us. walk me through how important it is to stick with it, stick with what is working at the moment? >> what is working changes on a week to week basis. there was so much attention on the most heavily shorted stocks in the gamestop saga, reading headlines this was some brand-new phenomena, the rise of retail traders and the domina

lisa: he is throwing shade at me. jonathan: ok, this is about lisa.a: do we see it in the numbers yet? tom: you see a churning of price. jonathan: we know it is going to happen here. it is pretty obvious. look at where we were, 12 months previously and think about that on a rolling basis. it is in it -- it is inevitable when cpi starts to push higher. tom: i hate to say it, but i'm going to go back to the real yield, very constructive at -.94. that is a big change from 10 days ago. jonathan: i'm not sure what is going on. never mind that other show. tom: lisa is getting her own show to compete with you and real yield. she will call it the deflation spiral. jonathan: coming up next, i might not be here, but you will get some retail data and some ppi did as well. after that, you will hear from the barclays chief u.s. economist. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolu

lisa: how do you use that? are you preparing to jump on that with respect to specific market calls? mike: we are advising clients to take their leverage down. even in the things that we like now, they are a bit ahead of themselves, and we wouldn't be surprised if we had another surprise over the next 30 to 45 days and get another correction. one risk right now, and let's take advantage of the drawdown like we got in january or some of the drawdowns we got last year. jonathan: mike, fantastic to catch up. mike wilson, morgan stanley cio and chief equity strategist. on this market, still very comfortable come with a year-end target -- very comfortable, with a year target of 2900. tom:tom: there's a lot of different opinions. it. . is a big brown. i see few people -- it is a big round. -- it is a big run. i see few people anticipating a run-up in earnings. . jonathan:jonathan: if you look at the s&p 500, 27%, 28% of it is price targets. real yields moving the other way. tom: abramowicz grind to get out. what is th

lisa: senior scholar. jon:jon: -- jon:jon: senior scholar. lisa: hi.hter] jon: equity futures down 18 points. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. a grim milestone in the u.s., half million americans have died from the coronavirus that hit the nation a little more than a year ago. the u.s. accounts for almost 20% of global fatalities. it has more than twice the number of deaths in the next closest country, brazil. hospitalizations and deaths have fallen in early january right after the holidays. federal investigators are now blaming metal fatigue for the engine failure on a united airlines boeing triple seven. the head of the national transportation safety board says it comes after a preliminary examination on the engine. the incident led to the grounding of dozens of 777. facebook will end its news blackout in australia. the government disagree to amend its landmark legislation, forcing facebook and google to pay local publishers for content. one of the compromises, commercial deals that two companies reached wit

tom: lisa is speechless. lisa: i am waiting for you to ask jonathan to explain offsides. jonathan: another time. tom: lisa, how is your hand? everyone once to know -- everyone wants to know? are we castless? lisa: i was trying to go camouflage. it is tan. it is blending right in. jonathan: it looks close. lisa: thanks. jonathan: good effort. tom: i am going through withdrawal. jonathan: anymore lyrics? lisa: we will get them. tom: the weekend was awesome. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, seen on bloomberg tv, heard on bloomberg radio. on sirius xm channel 119, this is bloomberg. ritika: i am ritika gupta. janet yellen predicts the u.s. can return to full employment next year, only if it enacts a strong coronavirus to mills package like the one proposed by president biden. janet yellen said the job market is in a deep hole. republicans have complained the president's plan is to expensive. president biden promises a different relationship with xi jinping then donald trump had. the president told cbs news there'll be competition but not conflict. he said there is no rea

lisa: the u.s.g a lot better than other nations, canada and the european continent in the forefront. are they going quickly enough to get ahead of the new strain of covid that has emerged in the united kingdom, that has emerged in south africa? dr. lundstrom: i think we can always go faster, and i think we are all committed to trying to get shots in arms as quickly as possible. we can't forget that we still have to mask, we still have to physical distance, we still have to wash our hands, avoid crowds. it is really a bundle of activities we have to double down on. lisa: people talking and it totally about how the -- people talking anecdotally about how the vaccine has to be defrosted, and if people don't show up to their appointments, they discard the remaining vaccine. how much are you seeing that, and what can we do to avoid some of that waste? dr. lundstrom: we are actually not doing that. we are creating waiting lists so that we have people in places that we can get the vaccine to quickly, withi

excuse me, lisa. lisa: i keep coming back to this, that 1.35% to 1.50% is where they would start buying. there's a question of the longer-term growth outlook. everyone keeps shifting their expectations. i do wonder at what point we say we are in a new regime where we do see faster growth and inflation. jonathan: let's send greg peters an ib and see if his empire here -- see if he has a buyer here? he logged on. coming up, david malpass, world bank president. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: -- karina: the white house is targeting key states in regards to president biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. the administration is focusing on 13 states, including ohio, pennsylvania, west virginia, arizona, and georgia. the effort is a dry run for an even tougher sales job on the next day millis package. china -- next stimulus package. china is shifting supply chains -- china says we plan to shift supply chains to other sources is unrealistic. mr. biden directed his staff to address shortfalls in semiconductor prod

lisa: go ahead. jonathan: lisa, jobless claims. that's got to be the focus. lisa: what you are seeing in the markets, you are seeing an idea baked in of optimism, potential for overheating. we are not seeing confirmation in the jobs data. that is the one lagging area. more jobless claims file than expected. when do we care about this data? when did the market trade-off this key information? jonathan: totally agree. can we get along for longer than 60 seconds? price action this morning. unchanged we erase the morning's loss. yields are higher by six basis points. yields up, curves steeper. a statement of confidence from the chairman of the federal reserve. not from the ecb and not from matt, lagarde -- from madam lagarde pretty up by about 1%. crude higher off the back of it. 63 handle on wti. lisa: the expectation the economy was going to go gangbusters later in the year. the idea we are not seeing confirmation in the labor market. 8:30 a.m. we will get those initial u.s. jobless claims. still incredibly elevated numbers. we are also getting durable goods ord

lisa: you are coming up this summer.dit crew end up with silver in the living room? eddie: the etf angle is similar to the oil story, but it is not the same. in the oil market you had exchange traded products backed by futures contracts. they could be a much larger disconnect. in the silver market, what you need is physically backed by physical silver. some of the silver market question that but they question quite a lot of what happens in the silver market. that is the weak point the reddit crowd is trying to target. they are trying to say we want to buy so much etf that the etf providers are not able to source the physical market. we have seen a little bit of evidence -- we've talked to people who say they are selling bars at 70% -- at $.70 over the london stock price. we saw the price rise, but we are not seeing signs that could take this beyond wednesday. lisa: how much is the new silver hype reddit and how much is institutional investors jumping on this idea of social media -- i do not want to say manipulation -- bu

lisa: i'm so happy.nd people are coming to states like florida because he didn't shut the economy down, he's allowing us to be free. sean, we look at the goal posts that keep moving, and the 15 days to slow the spread turned into months. it was no mask, one mask, now two masks, and even after the vaccine things may not get back to normal until 2022. we ever get -- will we ever get back to normal? sean: i think we will, but the human heart yearns for freedom. and even if you're a liberal progressive from new york to california, you still want to go to those places that offer you freedom. to lawrence's point, when the media wants this group to lock down, wear masks and florida does it different, they actually have to attack him and try to beat him. and in the end, the results in florida have been, i think, profound. you can navigate a pandemic, do it well and keep your businesses alive and thriving along with your economy. he is a success story. new york is a sign and a state of absolute failure. lisa: wel

tom: lisa is in a cab on the way home. jonathan: lisa has the good gait.es home. 1.36 on the u.s. 10 year. chair powell, one hour and 20 minutes away. full coverage on bloomberg tv and radio. this is "bloomberg surveillance." karina: a grim milestone for the u.s.. half a million americans have now died from the coronavirus in the nation a little more than a year ago. the u.s. accounts for almost 20% of global fatalities and has twice the number of deaths of brazil. hospitalizations and deaths have fallen since peaking in early january. meanwhile federal investigators are blaming metal fatigue for the engine failure on united airlines boeing 777. the head of the transportation safety board says that comes after a preliminary examination of fragments. the incident led to the grounding of dozens of 777's. texas has to pay -- texas had to figure out who will pave the energy crisis that plunge the state into darkness. the cost of electricity totaled over $50 billion, 12 times higher than the week before. utilities will look to pass those costs on to consumers.

lisa, payrolls coming up. lisa: we have a drumbeat to that.f we weren't talking about reddit and comes thigh-high boots, we would be talking -- and tom's thigh-high boots, we would be talking about the economy, we would be talking about the virus. ism manufacturing data following some stronger-than-expected data out of europe, as well as china. how much will this push the effort to get some sort of stimulus passed in washington, d.c.? 10:00 a.m., german chancellor angela merkel is giving a briefing on covid vaccinations. we've known europe has struggled to get up to speed in comparison to the united kingdom, as well as the u.s.. this is crucial. we aren't talking enough about this. the variations in the virus are speeding up. it is a race to get people vaccinated quickly enough to stave off the spread of this pandemic so that we can get to some other side. let me just explain five clock p.m., and then i will let you go off. [laughter] biden and harris are meeting with gop senators to discuss the stimulus package they have proposed. it does not

lisa: based on a study in the u.k.eli health care workers that showed a high percentage of protection on the first dose of the pfizer inoculation, should the u.s. expediting getting the first shots into as many people as possible over perhaps having two doses available for each individual? andrew: it is a point of bait right now. i tended to try and focus on getting billed shots in place. the reason for that is that we know that the second shot does increase the amount of immunity that a person has, and it is also probably going to help us in terms of the length of immunity that a vaccinated person has. so, i think that the best strategy going forward is to try immune eyes -- try to immunize everybody going forward. we just have to get better at rolling out the vaccine and dealing with the supply and logistic distribution problems that are creeping up in the u.s.. lisa: when i walked in this morning john noticed that i seemed ready to bring the blue -- bring the gloom. how close are we to a mutation in the south africa

lisa: i take that back, drink.laughter] jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. coming up, former president of the new york fed. we are looking forward to catching up with mr. dudley on this program. with equities climbing about 13 points on the s&p 500, up about 0.3%, even tom says it is cold outside. in fact, i think he said it was freezing. lisa: he said it was winter. tom: it is february. jonathan:jonathan: cold in winter? for goodness sake. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. joe biden raising a number of concerns in his first phone call as president with chinese leader xi jinping. according to the white house account, the president spoke about china's coercive and unfair economic practices. he also brought up human rights abuses and restrictions on political freedom in hong kong. house democrats are building a case against donald trump using his own words, and chilling new video of the storming of the u.s. capitol as lawmakers

lisa: including bill gates. think that's changed in the last 24 hours, based on the stock, but pretty much everybody should watch out. bill gates, but going. tom: my goal is to read 200, fine lined, single page spaces on bitcoin. they use the same word secretary yellen used yesterday at the "new york times" summit, the idea of the efficiency of bitcoin. how do you measure that, and what is it? there's huge distrust among economists over the efficiency of bitcoin as a transaction item. jonathan: and volatility as well. the volatility is just immense. they are trying to read out the price, and it is all over the place right now. equity futures down hard. nasdaq futures off by about 1.5%. s&p futures down by 0.5%. 10:00 a.m. eastern, we will hear from chairman powell, two hours and 11 minutes away. tom: let us look right now at home depot. i want to do this on a retail basis with sarah halzack, who is wired into how we go in stores and app stores. you know this success story. almost at the level of apple cache of a

lisa: here is what i am struck by.s a dissidents between markets that are ahead of the potential for overheating, and economists not in on that yet. they still see that being in this slow growth paradigm. i do wonder who is right. where does that cap get bridged david:? two viewed -- tom: two views on the markets and economics as well. i would go to improving pandemic data. i love what bob doll said earlier. he will have a given economy and it will deliver a given earnings and revenue. 27 vix down to 24. lisa: the reaction function equities is going back to what we saw. stocks rollover the nasdaq seeing a bigger decline in the futures market as we see the 30 year yield shoot higher. the pace at which yields are rising leading to lower equity valuations still seems to be holding this wednesday morning. tom: chairman powell talking. vice-chairman richard clarida will speak early this afternoon. we will get perspective. on bloomberg markets, former federal reserve vice chairman of princeton university. the 10 year yield,

this one is for lisa. lisa: thank you.n: high bond borrowing cost, junk-bond borrowing cost, relative low. treasuries haven't been where they are in the last 12 months ever. here's the spread, one year. the pre-covid highs just north of 3.1. this is important, i agree. i agree that the average duration of this index has gone a little longer as well, so that record is all the more impressive, but relative to treasuries, we are at the pre-pandemic tights. yes, energy has been taken down, but energy has been supported by this. crude rallying really nicely, back to $58 on wti. we have $60 billion of high-yield supply in the high-yield get, and about 1/3 of that was in the energy segment. that has been supported by this. i think it is really important to get your hands around here. it is not about the headline record low borrowing costs. that was great. it is about where we are relative to the benchmark, and relative to the benchmark, we are not there yet. there's a little bit more to go. that was for you, lisa. lisa: thanks. j

tom: lisa is there with a mint julep in the hat. lisa: with your thigh high boots.ence from keene. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels. get gym results at home in just 10 minutes a day. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor with aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. jonathon: from new york city this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. your economic data is coming out imminently ahead of that, futures higher, up eight

lisa: did they? these chat rooms, that's one thing regulators are looking at and that's what it's highlighting, the mark -- anonymous factors. jonathan: so you refuse to say if reddit engineered the short squeeze? lisa: know if it had been on retail. -- no, if it had been on retail. jonathan: we had that conversation. my snobbery is them saying that it can't be retail because it was too smart. that's what i'm pushing back on. tom: you mentioned skin in the game, i can't say enough about the book "anti-fragile," explaining so much about what we have seen over the last several days. jonathan: good morning. equities up, this is bloomberg. jonathan: things are stacking up quite nicely over the past couple of days. on the stimulus front, talks are still continuing. even without republican help, president biden seems to want to get this done. earnings, alphabet, amazon, tick. the previous two days, up 3%, a two day pop on the s&p. we have the cyclicals, the small caps. this morning, you don't get that. und

lisa: it's a race.you have mutations, have to create a critical mass to stop the mutations from threatening the progress we have made. this is the tension. timing does matter. not necessarily having a synchronized and to the pandemic, it's a big deal when you have kids at home. you relate to this. when can we stop wearing masks? when can we go back to school? when can we go to a restaurant? tom: it goes up the food chain as well. it's not just young kids. jonathan: you complained about that. is that what that was? tom: we are getting swanson tv dinners. it's going to be great. jonathan: they can have that tonight for dinner. lisa: thank you. i appreciate that. jonathan: from new york city this morning it, i am jonathan ferro. common up, what a guest -- coming up, we look at the fixed income market. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ritika: house democrats spent three days trying to show why donald trump should be convicted of the storming of the u.s. capitol. his lawyers will need only four hours o

lisa: oh my god. lori: no, but my five-year-old did try to let me talk them into trading some stocks. jonathan: i am sure i am sure i'm not alone. wall street has missed you. welcome back. fantastic research coming out of the team. tom: this is so important. it is grinding research. when they get smart on tv, it all starts with a 12 page research report with huge acuity. she delivers that almost every time. lisa: did you guys read the carson block essay in the financial times? he basically was blaming leverage which was spurred by low leverage rates and saying basically some of these traders will have an outsized impact because of all the passive financing that follows along. i think that is a really compelling argument. he has a bone to pick it, but i thought it was really fascinating. jonathan: he has a point. you mention how you did not get a job 20 years ago. do you know the story for how tom got hired to bloomberg? matt told me the story. tom used to have a buzz cut and used to be shaped. that is

jonathan: don't get lisa started. lisa? she's letting ago. lisa: carry on. jonathan: all right.g up in the eight a clock a.m. our, -- in the 8:00 a.m. hour, david malpass, world bank president. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: in new york with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. new research says the pfizer/biontech vaccine could help end the pandemic. the study was published in the latest edition of the new england journal of medicine. meanwhile, capitol hill, the fate of the democrats' proposed $15 an hour minimum wage maybe in the hands of the senate parliamentarian. it is part of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, but the parliamentarian needs to determine whether it is allowable under the rules of debate. the president has revoked a series of executive orders and memos issued by paul former president donald trump -- by former president donald trump. one of them rolled back the impact of dodd-frank. another cut illegal immigration to the u.s. according to dow jones, boeing decided to redesign a cover after two other engine failures in 2018. the incident over the weekend incl

lisa: private. [laughter] jonathan: you will catch me tomorrow on bloomberg tv talking about a source of mine talking about a company very short right now. [laughter] tom: that was an absolute clinic into frame that, american airlines was 22% short interest. jonathan: coming up on the program, at 7:00 eastern, macro risk advisor ceo. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. utility operators struggling in texas and a warning the rolling blackouts could keep its of the state in darkness for days. power customers were lamented first second day in the road to prevent the collapse of electric networks. outages spread to more states like arkansas, louisiana, and mississippi. total u.s. oil production plunged by the most ever because of the unprecedented cold last. it traders and industry executives say cruise down by about .33 in permian basin in texas and production has plummeted by as much as 65%. another day, another record high for bitcoin. it rose alm

lisa: that migration into florida has been a driver.ow much has this trend been isolated to the higher priced homes? mitch: i think it is across all income bands. the buyers who come from urban environments, you can go down side and get whatever you want, are flocking toward similar situations. miami beach, high-rise apartment buildings, gated communities, which tended to be higher priced. there are people in the more affordable homes across america who are making similar decisions. they can live in upstate new york and are making a decision to move to a more rural area in florida or tennessee. it depends on where they will be working when their job is back in the place where it was. tom: mitch's hallmark was looking at all of the real estate market and not just those priced at $5 million or above. what does that mean for new york city, boston, washington, san francisco, chicago? what does this mean for the great affluent migration? mitch: every year, there is a new crop of kids graduating from college and wanting to live in cities and

lisa: no. since you have never experienced -30 degree weather, it is your different -- it is a different kind of cold. you have to use pencils instead of pens. tom: i'm used to -- jon: i'm used to the u.k.. equity markets at all-time highs closing on friday. that continues. tenure eat treasury real -- the 10-year treasury yield approaching a great number in yields. jon: this is the shift and we have -- tom: this is the shift and we have a great set of guests. for me, you have higher yields, but the real yield comes in with a vengeance. we have a much lower negative yield on the real yield, and that shows that inflation dynamic versus what nominal yields are doing. jon: 3950 on the s&p 500, and lisa, there it is, yields up three basis point on a 10 year. lisa: my question is, how long can we continue this dynamic? at what point are we dealing with a controlled rise in yields. and are we pricing in an exit strategy as the economy does recover? we will get data today, not a lot, but 8:30 a.m., we

lisa: we are seeing dollar weakness. we are going to see day two of jay powell testimony on capitol hill. the vice chair speaking at 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. possibly offering more guidance into what their monetary policy stance is. 10:00 a.m. we will be getting new home sales in the united states. the question is how much momentum is there behind this as prices for the homes climbed to record highs in a number of places due to the low interest rates and the move away from urban areas to more suburban areas. i am particularly interested in this. president biden is signing an executive order of supply chain. he wants to take a look at the shortage of semiconductors with focus on the supply chains out of china. a lot of people wanted to see what he puts behind this. jonathan: some industrial policy brewing. lisa: i'm noted -- tom: stronger chinese yuan. new strength as well, but the washington beijing next is being redefined. jonathan: let's get to the bond market and bring in our guest. fantastic to start the show with you

lisa: i want to clarify. are saying the problem lies with the wind turbines, renewable energies, and not the pipelines freezing and other issues? is that what you are saying? jim: in a certain way. i think, as we have said in texas, renewable energy has priority on our grid. we have discouraged people coming into build power plants that run off of natural gas, which is a more reliable source than the wind and sun. i think what we are experiencing today is the fact that we don't have enough plans to keep up with our demand in times like these. tom: what does the railroad commission in texas need to do to dovetail a boom economy and the capitalism of texas with the constraints, the limits you face ecologically? jim: i think one of those big things is more along the lines of educating people on the benefits of fossil fuel, the benefits of our renewable energy. both have places here in texas. we need to make sure we are smart enough to make those coexist alongside each other but while still keeping a focus on imp

[laughter] lisa has been crushing it. lisa: thank you. jonathan: coming up, leon cooperman, omega advisors founder and ceo. how much longer are you in that room? can we keep you there a little bit longer? futures down 15. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first -- karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. texas is taking an extraordinary step to ensure in-state power generators have enough. some are calling it a violation of the u.s. constitution commerce clause. the crisis is now in its fourth day. several million texans are still without electricity. president biden is about to launch what may be one of his toughest legislative challenges. his immigration reform bill will be unveiled in congress today. it includes a path to citizenship for 11 million immigrants living illegally in the u.s. there are also calls for more technology to secure the border with mexico. the president had his first call with israel's benjamin netanyahu. the president called it a good conversation. the delay had led to speculation that biden was f

lisa, 40% of crude output is down in the united states of america. 61 handle. lisa: it is shocking. we have not overplayed this at all. the energy crisis that is raging down in texas and beyond. these, the amount of oil taken off-line -- the scope of the amount of oil taken off-line. we get jobless claims. expecting it to be a little better than last week. still an astronomical figure. expecting to take lower by little but it shows the scope of the devastation that is ongoing to the labor market despite some of the surprises we have been talking about. natural gas individual worries -- natural gas inventories. expect to be discussions about limiting or forcing disclosures come about shortselling in addition to order flow. a number of other issues. hard to know the legal consequences could be as on the citadel and robinhood executives take the hot seat. jon: can you think of a hearing that has got to the bottom of anything? tom: it is all show. i hate to be skeptical, but it is also. there may be some value. mr. miller mentioned that. i agree, it is going to be a lot of show. people

-- at lisa's? is that what i'm hearing? tom: lisa has this massive cast? how do you do guac with a cast? lisa: your elbow. jonathan: your elbow? do you not just use your other hand? lisa: i'm not very good with my other hand. tom: john, boundaries. [laughter] ♪ you can turn me on with just a touch, baby ♪ jonathan: you were talking about boundaries, sir. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> lawmakers adopting a budget blueprint for president biden. the vote was 51-50 with vice president harris breaking her first time. the house will likely vote to adopt the senate's language that would allow democrats to approve the stimulus without republican support. the house has voted to strip georgia republican marjorie taylor greene of her to committee seats for embracing conspiracy theories and violence against democrats. 11 republicans voted with the democratic majority. earlier greene said that she disavowed her previous views. u.k. will require travelers from coronavirus hotspots to quarantine. arrivals will have to isolate in 10 days in government-improved accommodation. aut

lisa: an important point.'s also the froth indicator, the idea that people believe the dollar will be less valuable going forward. you do just wonder how far that is going to go before it gets checked by something, perhaps on the ground. tom: we will see as we get closer to the opening. the vix 25.55. it has not really come in. there were a couple good charts over the weekend of where it is, where it should be, which is a couple big figures lower. it has been a really interesting monday, setting us up for a week in washington. we look to stimulus debate. william dalian chicago -- william daley chicago will have a few bits -- william dalian chicago will have a few bits of perspective on the outcome of stimulus. stay with us on bloomberg. good morning. ♪ jonathan: good morning. the countdown to the open starts now with 30 minutes to go. equities at all-time highs. up 15 points on the s&p. a big fiscal packages on the way. >> we will go to a bigger plan. >> fiscal support. >> we are looking at $1.7 trillion. >> y

lisa, what's going on? lisa: what? i'm just saying it is a real concern. jon: i appreciate that concern this money. lisa abramowicz along with tom and jonathan ferro. from new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. a study from israel shows that the pfizer-biontech vaccine stops the majority of people from being infected. it is the first real world indication that vaccination can stop the spread of coronavirus. some scientists are disputing its accuracy. in the u.k. today, prime minister boris johnson will announce all schools in england will reopen starting march 8. johnson will be in parliament, outlining how the virus lockdown will be lifted over the next few months. more social contact will be allowed for march 29, including outdoor gatherings of either six people or two households. airlines in the u.s., japan, and south korea has grounded following 777's following the engine explode in over the weekend. it made an emerging -- a flight made an emergency landing in denver after an engine explosion

lisa: seriously?hael: bill dudley out with a piece on bloomberg opinion suggesting there are reasons to be worried about inflation. he goes where larry summers went. with the big stimulus coming and with the possible rebound in demand as the pandemic goes away we could have an inflation problem down the road. lisa: it is interesting you mentioned that. bloomberg economics said the stimulus would be short-term, or transitory inflationary and not necessarily long-term. people saying a confluence of events will lead to a higher inflation. when you survey your peers and economists, what is the consensus right now? michael: we are going to see a temporary spike in inflation. the forecast is in the second quarter, the year-over-year rate goes up the 2.7%. by the third quarter it falls to 2.3%. that puts it in the range the fed has been talking about. the question is does it stay there? that will be the harder thing to know until we see what we get out of stimulus and how soon the pandemic in. -- ends. it is

lisa: up one million.a question, there is one company that had no profit, that was threatened to go bankrupt last year, a renewable energy company, it is of thousands of percent because people are pouring into this bet this administration will back these companies. you think about some of the outliers and you wonder how much they are indicative of some of that risk-taking robert kaplan was talking about. tom: exactly. robert kaplan summing it up. we thank you for watching and listening on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. i want to pay particular to kevin cirilli tonight at 5:00 on bloomberg radio. at 12:00, david westin with ben cardin of maryland. look forward to that. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. we pulled down from all-time highs. we begin with the big issue. when is hop too hot? >> we should not ignore the inflation trade. >> inflation moving higher. >> the

lisa: let's talk gamestop. what's your sense in terms of whether there is something improper that occurred with the derivatives trading that you think they will hone in on and perhaps target? >> i think the takeaway is this is much eager in one particular stock. there's a bigger impact from the retail trading that we've seen. across rod swaths of the market we are seeing a complete repricing of upside risk. the game stops and amcs, those are tiny. within the large-cap stocks, over 30% are now trading with inverted call skew which is a technical term saying that the upset calls are now trading at a premium to the at the money calls. that is very unusual to put that perspective over the last 10 years. that percentage historically has averaged about 6%. now we are seeing trade with inverted skew. that's the legacy, that's the impact from the retail option trading where the retail consumer piece is typically buyers of upside call options. we are seeing it repriced with the large-cap tech names, with the financials,

lisa: that is key.dea if you do not vote for one person come if you like somebody and rank them first, you can put a second candidate who might be more likely to win and you are not throwing away your vote. it is a key change in the voting procedure other places are looking at. tom: looking at that across many other localities and nations as well. on the data front, we deteriorate. the vix goes at 1.79 points. a 23 handle on the vix gets my attention. we've been looking at oil, $65 a barrel rounded up. on brent, rounded down, $61 a barrel. stay with us on radio and tv. "balance of power" looking forward to the gamestop hearings. stay with us. good morning. ♪ jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the opening starts now. equity futures holding onto 3900 and up seven tenths of 1%. the reddit revolution -- >> those congressional hearings will be incredible. >> something to look at. >> gamestop, gamestop. >> the oxygen sucked out of the market. >> this is a pa

lisa: just brace for it. am going to walk offset and find out tom has done something, like something has happened to my desk. [laughter] tom: wait until we get a when iritis and of up what the real yield -- when we get a one hour edition of "the real yield." jonathan: coming up jordan rochester, nomura fx strategist. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. that deep-freeze could keep parts of texas in the dark for days. they implement it rolling power cuts for the second day in a row. the operator of the texas electric grade says it could be days before they are back up and running. outages spread to arkansas, louisiana, and mississippi. the u.s. and japan reportedly have agreed to extend their agreement on troop funding for a year. according to a newspaper, the deal will keep japan's share of the cost of hosting u.s. forces at about $1 billion per year. former president trump demanded a fourfold increase in financial support. and obviously there is no love lost between don

judy woodruff: and lisa joins me now.ou are reporting mainly on the house, but it's been busy, as you know, today the senate as well. they are debating a budget. they're looking at how to proceed on covid relief. and i understand you have received a lot of questions from viewers on all of this. lisa desjardins: right. the process is called budget conciliation. we asked on twitter if there were questions. there were plenty of questions. and we want to explain the process of looking at questions, first th one fromarcy. she wrote -- "why can't the reconciliation process be subject to the filibuster?" now, this is the biggest important part of why we are in budget reconciliation at all, is because it only requires a majority vote. so, let me explain this, showing you a few things. first, the budget reconciliation process, again, requires just a majority vote, cannot be filibustered. why is that? well, it was created in the '70s to try and promote fiscal responsibility, to promote budgets and responsible budgets. and it requir

lisa: why don't you promo the real yield? jonathan: looking forward to that and about six hours time. this is an early promo. great lineup, nevertheless. tom: let's do it for bloomberg radio. there it is. it works. jonathan: let's sit on those thoughts from bob michaels, the view that things get better, and his view is to stick with it and do not wait for the correction. stick with risk. lisa: this highlights the idea of risk getting turnouts its head. it is the safest insurance right now. that is the belief in markets, that yields will go higher on the benchmark treasuries. outperformance of the risk's assets, both in the bond and the stock markets. we wonder, at what point are we under pricing corporate credit rates, potentially underpricing economic growth? tom: people are talking about interest rate risks, duration risks. here is the price action this friday morning. good morning as we count you down to the opening bell come about two hours and 27 minutes ahead -- away. equity futures taking a small bite out of would -- o