this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: i'm lisa abramovitz. this is bloomberg real yield.ime for the auction block. we kick things off in asia went dollar bond sales picking up. baidu issues a two part sustainability deal. high-grade debt fueling the action earlier in the week with investors piling in despite total sales missing estimates. the junk-bond rally losing momentum with issuers offering higher interest rates to lure investors. still with us are greg staples, matt brill and brian railing. one thing i found interesting wasn't underperformance of investment grade bonds, especially given the fact that this seems to have been a sweet spot not only mystically but internationally. brian, what is your sense behind the meaning of the underperformance of newly sold investing grade bonds? brian: i'm a bit of a surprise. the market is still healthy, there is demand there. i would expect the lull to be temporary, probably just some concerns about the risk appetite with delta. our expectations here in the u.s. is that we will power through, it will not be as big of a dip as so

and i said, "lisa, lisa, are you okay?, seth sometimes seemed overcome by emotion. >> i couldn't do it. i couldn't [bleep] protect her when i'm ten feet away from her. why can't they still be alive? why? why? why couldn't i have done something to protect the woman that i loved? >> the agent asked seth what he thought had happened. >> let's go with your theory here that was an intruder, right? i mean, is that fair to call -- >> that's the only thing i can think of. >> what do you think this person's intent was? >> i don't know. you'd have to be a complete [bleep] to walk into somebody's house and shoot them. >> seth then bolstered the cops'leading theory of the crime so far, that the neighbor, brian tate, had shot lisa. >> who was the first person >> i don't know. you'd have to be a complete [bleep] to walk into somebody's house and shoot them. >> seth then bolstered the cops'leading theory of the crime so far, that the neighbor, brian tate, had shot lisa. >> who was the first person that came to your mind? >> tate. my craz

what is it, lisa?a: it is a hybrid model, a semblance of what we experience fall when everybody goes back to what is supposed to be in person but i expect will be hybrid and editorialized. the theme of this conference is economic policy in an uneven economy. if they are talking about the uneven wealth distribution, job recovery, how are they going to talk about fed policy with respect to that where their policies are propping up the upper tears in terms of wealth -- upper tiers in terms of wealth distribution? if this is the theme of their conference, how are they going to address this and look inward in terms of their role in this dynamic? tom: it is exactly right to get this started with trails evans out chicago with an important conference two years ago, to make a joke to be liked, a more sensitive fed. i do agree with you. i think we are going to see a lot of that at jackson hole. i don't think anybody will be listening because they are worried about tapering. people think it could be a nonevent. l

tom: see that, lisa, she put me -- lisa: it's tough, tom. it's tough. tom: coming up, folks, in our next hour, taylor riggs on the ratio dupont ratio. taylor: i can recommend a meditation book written by john ferro. tom: it's been quite a drawdown in the s.p.x. lisa: we'll discuss it. tom: this is bloomberg, good morning. morning. introducing xfinity rewards. our very own way of thanking you just for being with us. enjoy rewards like movie night specials. xfinity mobile benefits. ...and exclusive experiences, like the chance to win tickets to see watch what happens live. hey! it's me. the longer you've been with us... the more rewards you can get. like sharpening your cooking skills with a top chef. join for free on the xfinity app and watch all the rewards float in. our thanks. your rewards. tom: good morning, everyone. boomberg surveil. mr. ferro is off. taylor riggs is helping out today. that's a good thifpblgt we are going to get to a really important conversation here. wonderful, unique expert on the geography of central asia. what it means for not

lisa: i honestly have no idea. [laughter] going forward, it will be interesting to see if taper is more of a concern for market. tom: jobs day on friday, full coverage on friday morning reagan stay with us, much more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> petroleum, helping the kim jong-un regime adding to its stockpile of material needed to make nuclear weapons and the reactor is used to churn out roughly enough for one atomic bomb in recent years with uranium enrichment or nuclear warheads. china, regulators are cracking down on the games industry. minors limited to three hours per week, aimed at curbing excessive indulgence and games and assisting mental health. toyota with record demands from july for suv's and hybrid. the japanese automaker making deliveries by 16% from one year earlier. due to the parts shortages. global news, 24 hours per day on bloomberg quicktake. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> as soon the storm passes, we are going to put this, but the countries full might hind the rescue and recovery in a be here to

lisa: that's why i'm gloomy.laughter] jonathan: it is an important question, and that's why we ask it. lisa is gloomy, new/on a charles summer morning on tuesday -- gloomy, on a summer morning on tuesday. this is bloomberg. ritika: apple's next iphone lineup will get at least three new major camera and video recording updates. in addition to the upgrades, the new phones will have a faster chip speed and new screen technology. the devices are expected to go on sale in the next few weeks. president biden's big plans for the economy are about to pass their major legislative test. the group of senators is prepared to use the plan to bypass republicans on the bipartisan part -- on the non-bipartisan part. the covid wave that hit art of the ozarks in the deep south has now embraced the dutch has now engulfed the country. 12 states and washington, d.c. have rates in the second-worst category. the european union has decided not to reinstate restrictions on non-essential travel from the u.s. that have spiked by new covid

lisa, let's go right there. the real yield, negative one point gloom gets to lesser negative numbers. lisa: raising questions for the federal reserve which is how quickly are they going to allow that to rise at a time when there is so much uncertainty. are we seeing peak delta fears, or is this a prolonged slowdown that is going to affect gdp figures? tom: the thing i see out of the weekend is what we talk about on friday, it occurred friday afternoon. i was waiting for monday morning. never got there. but not a canceled jackson hole, but a different jackson hole. lisa: the idea that it was moved to virtual highlights potential economic pain from the dragging on of this pandemic because think about all of the canceled hotel rooms, all of the canceled flights, all of the canceled dinners. it is all revenue for different areas in the nation. you wonder how long this prolongs the recovery at a time when offices are basically being pushed out in terms of their closures for that much longer. what does the new normal

tom: do we check that box, lisa? lisa: we checked it. tom: checked the box. ferro never would have done that. lisa: no. tom: where are we here? futures flat. dow futures up five. the vix 17.35. the dollar was a little bit of stability. 73 on d.x.y. this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden is sticking to his plan to remove all u.s. troops from afghanistan by august 31. he's ordered his national security team to come up with contingency plans if he decides that a delay is necessary. the president says that complete the u.s. mission by the deadline depends on the taliban continuing to cooperate and allowing access to the airport for those the u.s. is evacuating. $3.5 trillion budget resolution president biden will approve the resolution without voting on t house speaker nancy pelosi avoiding a shutdown and used a procedural maneuver that deemed it passed once the house adopted a rule governing debate for two other bills. next, committees will write the details of the budget framework into tax and spending bills. democrats will use the reconciliation process to

he is doing research, lisa.

lisa: of course. francine: hera still has that but there is milkshake shortage for mcdonald's and that has had a lot of u.k. people up in arms. it is the same supply constraints you have in the u.s. and elsewhere coupled with labor shortage that was because of break that. i think there are 12,000 fruit pickers not in the country because of brexit. 14,000 truck drivers are no longer here because they went back to the eu. the dynamic in the u.k. is trickier than other parts of the world. tom: i know tear the mcdonald's in liverpool station lloyd street in london is a place i frequent often when i travel to london. it does have a milkshake shortage. lisa, help me here, negative four, negative on the screen. the vix has done nothing since time began. let me continue with the yield, 135 -- 1.35 is a headline. we have higher yields over the last three days and the 30 year bond getting up to the due percent level, 1.96%. there is curve steepening at a modest level. the real yield does nothing. lisa, at the w

lisa, what did you learn? lisa: i learned the idea of the look fixes fascinating.ere -- the idea of the olympics is fascinating. if there is no tv audience, what is this? tom: i am trying so hard to keep my opinion out of this. i will try hard right now. maybe it is my life, maybe does the people around me, whatever. we are so far from peggy fleming. so far. lisa: frankly, as craig moffett said, this is a post cable world. what does that mean in content? there is so much content out there. i the about youtube and how much eyeballs youtube is catching without paying anything, versus netflix which is down 5% as it pays a ton for content. how do you square who the winner will be at the end of the day, especially in a moving feast of potential appetites? tom: let's go to the bond market because lisa abramowicz always wants to go to the bond market. 2.01 on the 30 year bond. what does the fixed mortgage do? lisa: fixed mortgages are pretty stable, giving a tailwind to the housing market. at 1:00 we will be getting the 30 year option. -- the 30 year auction. curious to s

[laughter] tom: lisa, you are mistaken. lisa: ok, i'm sorry.ave a response from ira jersey of bloomberg intelligence. let me reiterate that. the tens to move to 1.8 6% next year, and buried in there is the idea that we get a flatter curve. he says the idea is if the fed is going to hike in late 2023, the front end will need to be fully priced in for that, so it is not massive flattening through next year. he just says that's where the bias might as we start to end his bait some of these hikes. tom: i am wondering what that does to my austrian 99 your paper -- 99 year paper. this rebound for the entire market. jonathan: it does. we will talk about the curve flattening through next year, and it is probably -- it is pretty early for this kind of stuff. tom: this is the most wacko august i've ever seen. august is always nuts. let's be honest. jonathan: we are on the second, and is already the most wacko tom has ever seen. it is september that is so pivotal for so many of the debates happening on wall street and beyond. lisa, you have made that poin

lisa: changing this morning. we are seen yields pickup as we hear that the ecb is thinking about tapering bond purchases after higher inflation reads. i wonder if this will be a turning point as we see a growing number of central banks recognize inflationary courses and start tapering. tom: we have been seeing turning points for years. three years in to double-digit equity returns, and from what you studied, you say, hey. lisa: this is the question. if bond yields remain low, if they don't increase all that much, what does that tell you? are they not pricing it in? is there something else driving the price action? does it tell you we will enter a slow growth world no matter what? this is a huge question given what you pointed out earlier, the yield curve not doing anything. tom: exactly. 109 basis points. i look at it all in the background of the exit of afghanistan, and it shows the turmoil and into q3 and q4, do we have an understanding of what 2022 looks like? no. taylor: a lot of it has continued to be positi

lisa: really? tom: lisa nailed it. why that going up?laughter] eddie van der walt, thank you so much. always brilliant here. he said proof of stake. i looked at dry age stake at whole foods -- dry aged steak at whole foods. lisa: i always hear you saying whole paycheck. tom: the hamburger was at 15% or 20% fat. i didn't make diet executive decision. lisa: i have a sense of who was lined up on either side of that debate. it was interesting that eddie was talking about the regulatory impulse and how more regulatory guidance would be positive for the crypto asset, but how do you regulate dogecoin? i am telling you this because my kids use that in roadblocks. my kids are more in roblox -- in roblox. my kids are more knowledgeable in dogecoin than i will ever be. tom: kailey, are you loving this? tom: kailey: i am an avid -- kailey: i am an avid passive bystander. i have not found my entry point. lisa: you can give her her wedding gift, she accepts doge. she accepts bitcoin. [laughter] tom: let's do a data check. ferro would do a data check b

lisa, pick it up. lisa: i'm wondering if we can go brought.dering what the foreign-exchange implication is, supply chain disruption given how important trade is. the u.s. has been importing so much and exporting $70. what happens if that dynamic -- exporting so many dollars. what happens if that supply dynamic gets rejiggered? erik: so much global trade is invoiced in u.s. dollars. if you think about when the dollar starts to get strong, that tends to be negative for global growth and global trade in particular because trade in general is more expensive. plus and thinking about the dollar lending that needs to take place in facilitating global trade, that becomes more expensive. the dollar higher is not just the pain trade for the market, it is the pain trade for the global economy. there are real reasons to keep an eye on the dollar as we test these new highs. tom: erik nielsen, thank you -- erik nelson, thank you so much. a short note. it goes to the soup of china. to me with leland miller and the china beige book saying it is not happening.

lisa: -- a date, an hour? lisa: of course not.oing forward, there is a question about the response and bond markets. i think jim caron nailed it earlier, when he said that if they announce a faster taper eventually, that will actually meet to lower long-term yields. this is what a lot of other people are saying. tom: it gets out to the terminal yield. to the mathiness of that, there's the four ideas that make up the yield, and to me, the immovable force is the microeconomics, the liquidity wall, which means price up, yield down. taylor: except that in the credit market, it is going the other way. we just came off of seven straight weeks of rising high-yield credit spreads. that is the longest streak since 2013. interestingly enough, in the afternoon, guests have been coming on and saying it is a buying opportunity. you do wonder when some of the economics fold through with an investment grade, within the high-yield, and the squishing this with spreads -- the squishiness with spreads rising. tom: we go to abramowitz on high-yield.

lisa: to pile on what you were saying.l sales and auto you say is the mark -- retail sales ex auto you say is more accurate, it also came in lower than expected. you talk about how the labor market is supposed to pick up from where the stimulus checks have left off, yet the labor market is facing the headwind of the delta variant and the fact that people are staying home more in order to be safe. there is a question of whether this hampers growth. what do you think? michael: it is certainly possible. on balance i would be more worried about delta variant growth in places like china and southeast asia because of what it could do to intensify supply chain bottlenecks globally. in the u.s., where the delta variant is spreading our states that probably are not going to move to lockdown. i think you might have a compositional shift away from hotels and airlines and face-to-face things back towards goods. we could cehic up in that. -- we could ca pickup -- we could see a heck up in that. -- a hiccup in that. we have consumption

jonathan: do you want to lisa: hit tencent quickly echo lisa: i want to hit spiritual opium -- quickly? lisa: i want to hit spiritual opium. tom: where do i get in on this? jonathan: this is the close in hong kong at 6%. lisa: spiritual opium and electronic drugs. a state owned media outlet of china included a criticism of videogames as such. honestly, any parent who has lived through the pandemic welcomes spiritual opium and electronic drugs, which is why we are hooked into fortnite. jonathan: i can't imagine admitting that on the air, lisa: go ahead please. lisa:they are not wrong. -- lisa: they are not wrong, but this type of commit occasion in state owned media -- that is the response that you are seeing in equities. jonathan: we will spend more time on this later. that's get price action on tuesday money. good morning. the s&p 500, yields higher by a couple of basis points. 1.1954. and for next change, euro-dollar 1.1843. tom: the markets again today, particularly into claims on thursday. i'm just looking at resilient equity markets, and a dollar -- what is the dollar supposed to

balance is such a dangerous word right now, lisa. lisa: i was going to say.ughter] tom: but for conservative savers, they are not buying bitcoin. i am looking at some kind of --. i think that is what makes patel 's portfolio look so good, it is all about dividend growth. lisa: we saw for years, hedge funds losing money and not getting new clients? it is starting to reverse. people are looking for career related assets. they are searching anywhere. it highlights that there is no alternative. a balanced portfolio looks different now than perhaps a few years ago. taylor: at my reading this right? you have 15%, 18% return on a 60/40 portfolio in the last year? doesn't sound too bad. tom: it doesn't sound too bad, but it is only a few basis points under the -- 500. you know the cfa, the consultants make note of that. to your point, people are miserable with a 15% return. taylor: totally valid. just remember, cg is th -- just remember, cfa is the noun. violation of ethics already. [laughter] i hate to say it, it means more equities. that 10-year yields is nowhere n

tom keene and lisa abramowicz. kailey leinz and for jon ferro ahead of -- kailey leinz in for jon ferro ahead of her wedding, which we will be very much congratulating her on. tom: off what we had last week with some real difficult stream of news, and of course, the shock of no jackson hole, and on to where it is just a statement on earnings. a guest coming up is quite good on this. it is the purity of the move up in the last two days the gets my attention. lisa: i keep having this voice in my head saying the stock market is not the economy. how long can we get i divergence -- get a divergence? tom: you have to enjoy losing money three times in a row off of that axum, and i really can't -- that maxim, and i really can't say enough. lisa: i wonder how much emphasis there is on consumer spending and the power of that, especially headed into september, with the runoff of some of the stimulus programs, the checks that people have been getting. how much is that a risk for citing -- a risk people are citing? kailey: that

lisa: this is the right focus. i think it is important you talk about how this is not about the fed and tapering, it is about supply chain, about inflation reducing consumer sentiment. we have seen that across the board as well as production. interesting to see people are coming out and seeing the potential ramifications for this. the big question in my mind, how long do these disruptions go on at a time of zero tolerance for covid cases and the likes of china? jon: china front and center. a conversation about 12 redistribution in china, look at the move in europe, that is where the big move is right now. look at the move in the luxury players. they are getting hammered. tom: the first thing i looked at this morning was the germany 10 year yield which has given me some greater negative statistic. the single thing i've noticed in the last 24 hours, i have never seen this, we have economists playing epidemiologists. goldman sachs, wonderful work, but read the note jon. he is guessing the delta variant. i don't buy th

lisa: carry-on. tom: i want to say this again and this is not an original idea, this is monopoly money. what is so silly here is the billions of dollars and trillions of dollars we cannot contribute to who are rental grieved and all of that. get the money, get them vaccinated. the key thing with the vanguard announcement is the vaccinated get the money. jonathan: they have until october to get vaccinated. lisa, the response in a corporate america is getting face. lisa: it protects you, it protects us from disruption and it raises the bar in terms of how much freedom they have when they get vaccinated. what i am watching is the fda. the expectation from the new york times is that the fda will grant full approval to the pfizer vaccine early next month. this may be something that triggers a greater pace of vaccinations. jonathan: we have been waiting for that. we are starting to see downgrades in china. that is worth focusing on, restrictions building in more than 40 cities. that really is worth paying

jonathan: lisa, final word?isa: the focus for me is should we be looking at the carrots or the sticks. at what point do you start mandating things? that is where the focus of gravity is right now among governments and businesses. jonathan: equity futures down for. where is the show going -- down four. where is the show going? yields come in almost a basis point. tom: look at the real yield, jon. jonathan: let's go there. i can freestyle with you. that's get it up on the bloomberg terminal right now. -1.21% on reals. citi looking for a 70 basis point move the other way. what would that do to this market? tom: turn it on its head. there's no question, it's a bold call. maybe that's what this time of year is. it is a time for bold calls. jonathan: maybe. lisa: let's bring it forward to what we are looking at today. this ties into the debate, which is how much dynamism there is to the economic recovery. it really all hinges with jobs. that's what market participants are looking at. the adp report not necessarily ind

jonathan: thank you, lisa. lisa: both are important. but with u.s. oil and gas rigs, they have maintained discipline. they have not come back online despite the increase in oil prices. at what point do we get people saying let's pump? lisa: i think -- tom: i think an important conversation is one you will have with martin walsh, the secretary of labor. when do we see that? jonathan: at about 9:45. tom: this is about job formation. chairman powell has made it clear that is part of their mandate. we are nowhere near getting back to where we were february of 2020. jonathan: i'm with you. back-to-school to school is a huge piece of this. lisa has talked about this over the past few months. september is a big month. lisa: i wonder if perhaps some of the back to office plans being derailed have to do with questions around back to school because parents are not going to want to go back to the office if they aren't sure where their kids are going to be. jonathan: subadra rajappa joins us now from societe generale. 850 8000 is the median estimate. the range i

lisa once it to be $1000. lisa: he said $3000. [laughter] jonathan: futures positive. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the surge in covid crisis is increasing pressure on u.s. drug radio lighters -- drug regulators to fully approve the pfizer vaccine. it was the first to apply for full licensure in the country. a full approval could help the biden administration ramp act up its immunization drive and a holdouts that the shot is safe. alibaba posted quarterly avenue that missed estimates -- quarterly revenue that missed estimates. the commerce giant said it was increasing its share buyback program by about 50%. that is just $15 billion. pia partners will pay $3 billion for naked juice and other juice brands. juice sales have been under pressure because consumers are cutting back on sugar consumption. at the tokyo olympics, american gymnastics star simone biles made an emotional return to competition and won the bronze in the balance beam final. she withdrew from several events last week to focus on her mental health. this is her sev

lisa: yes. jonathan: andrew sheets not getting involved in the forecast come the idea that what has been good for the borrower has been good for the lender of last year. lisa: it goes to the question of how long can goldilocks continue? at what point do we get the faster growth the borrowing is aimed at that will disrupt this low rate trade. jonathan: andrew i know you're watching. i am not telling you simple. equity futures down 16. on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the taliban are taking full control of afghanistan does go decades after they were ousted by the u.s. military. the troops moved into kabul yesterday and took over the presidential palace. the american backed president fled the country. chaos at kabul's international airport. thousands of people rushed to exit the country. at least five people were killed as people try to forcibly enter planes departing. president biden is expected to make remarks on it deanna stan soon. in haiti

lisa: stick with us.ng through the numbers, michael mckee is looking through the more granular aspects of the report. we talked about corporate earnings coming in so much hotter than people had expected, yet economic data lagging behind. perhaps the economic data have not put up with itself. what are the details? michael: you're looking revisions to the prior month's, you look at the numbers added back for june and may, 930 8000 jobs were created in june. we had thought that was 850,000. significantly better report for the month of june. total, 119,000 over those two months. job creation has been stronger than we thought it was. we had reports that were disappointing, turns out they were not as bad. lisa: gina martin adams still with us and i'm looking at the action in the equity market. nasdaq futures underperforming the s&p, which is basically flat. nasdaq futures down less than .5%. from your perspective, if the nasdaq can post gains through year end if treasury yields continue to rise? gina: very unli

lisa: there is none. jon: to hear his personal opinion over the next week or so, that will be interesting. your equity markets, -19, down .4%. a five-day winning streak into this morning. off all-time highs. from new york, bloomberg.com. ♪ ritika: with the first or news, i'm ritika gupta. the taliban are urging women to join the new government. a member of the taliban commission said the group does not want women to be victims. when the taliban were in power previously, women were largely confined to their home. the u.s. is embracing a high-stakes relationship with the taliban. a growing rivalry with the u.s. has china's president, xi jinping, seizing any opportunity to push back against u.s. dominance. in haiti, earthquakes hit more than 400 people and injured almost 7000. now haitians are bracing for tropical storm grace, which could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. in new zealand, the prime minister said the country will go into a level four lockdown, the most restricted kind, after authorities de

lisa: absolutely. one of the balance of risks when it comes to inflation perhaps overshooting as perhaps we heard from fed chair jay powell or them acting too soon and tightening when the economy needs a boost. this is a delicate balance and the market is saying the fed has it right. will he push back and worry more about inflation? tom: on radio and television, whether you are working from home, from the beach, in the office, we will have wonderful coverage. michael mckee with decades of work has put together a terrific set of voices to get us ready for the chairman's speech and then we will have coverage and move into the later morning on thoughts on what the chairman has brought. the petition here for bond geyser, is taper or rates. which are you focused on? lisa: i'm focus on what the reaction is in markets to any indication of what fed chair jay powell would like to see in the tapering. we can say they will probably taper at some point this year but what we can say is what the reaction will be in

lisa? lisa: why did we call hurricane henry, henri? kailey: it's french. lisa: i know, but why.ley: there is a cycle of names that they have to go through. henry must have been used recently. lisa: did you guys go hang out in central park i did not. tom: right now avoiding the rain in singapore. the vice president of the united states on the uss -- it is a gunboat from long ago and far away, and now much more -- vice president harris in singapore. good morning. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pa

jonathon: from new york city alongside tom keene and lisa ramos. -- lisa abramowicz.equity market is unchanged this morning. good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: the u.s. senate is moving closer to passing the $550 billion infrastructure bill. a vote is likely late this morning. once the measure is passed, democrats plan to reprove a budget which will clear the way for passage of the rest of the economic agenda. they can do that without any republican support. for the first time in decades, american workers are calling the shots. companies such as kroger and chipotle are pushing up hourly wages to twice of what they are paying employees. others are offering hiring bonuses. it is the biggest pay hike since the early 1980's. wages in the hospitality industry have risen at an annual rate of 6.6%. the u.s. is preparing to send coronavirus vaccines to mexico. mexico has amassed -- is among the countries hardest hit by the pandemic was almost 250,000 deaths. the u.s. will send mexico vaccines from astrazeneca and moderna. in china, the central bank is fanning expectatio

jonathan: lisa disagrees. lisa: i think they are going to avoid saying anything.hink they will talk about income inequality and things that will not necessarily play into their strategy because they just don't know right now. jonathan: you think a nothing speech next week? lisa: i think that is a goal. tom: then where we going? lisa: it will be beautiful. jonathan: that was your pitch to management. [laughter] lisa: i think it could be interesting. but i will say, my point is they don't want to say anything they might have to reverse and just a couple of weeks when we get more data in such quickly moving situations. jonathan: i love that pitch. tom: as jack fitzpatrick no, at jackson hole the big decision is the hangover breakfast or the cowboy breakfast. right now out of washington on a very serious thursday, just simply, what is the president upon to do list today? what is he saying we've got to get done today? jack: today and in the very near future, they are still in the process of adding that 6000 increase of troops back into afghanistan to try to essentially

lisa: you can weigh in on that, go for it. kailey: no, lisa, be rude.plause] lisa: i would love to be -- [laughter] lisa: i would love to be rude. what about bezos leaving with amazon? tom: not going to happen. stay with us. we are rude. tom: "bloomberg surveillance," good morning, everyone. jon ferro out, kailey leinz in. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. moving us through the markets, we will get to romaine bostick any moment on the different nuances of individual securities. futures up nine. the vix, a real improvement from 18, down nicely through 17 to a 16 handle in the enthusiasm yesterday afternoon, 17.18 right now. yields, 1.26%. dollar churning as well. we make note of oil with a little bit of uproar in mexico on an explosion there over the weekend. $70 a barrel on brent crude, up 1.73%. romaine: a lot of optimism reflected in equities, as well as the commodities space. a lot of that tied into the action you are seeing in china. the hang seng tech index up about 7% on the day on the back of all of those large cap tech companies rallying pretty har

lisa: amen. [laughter] jonathan: lisa wants us gone, clearly. it is a beautiful one here in new york. your equity market unchanged. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president joe biden's big plans for the economy are about to pass their first meijer legislative test. the group of democratic and republican senators are prepared to approve the infrastructure program. the vote is set to begin like this morning. democrats will be able to bypass republicans on the next part, a three point $5 trillion positive resolution that would expand health coverage, childcare, and education benefits. u.s. coronavirus waves that started in low vaccination states in the ozarks and deep south has engulfed the country. cases and hospitalizations are at their highest since february. 30 eight states have transmission levels considered high by the cdc. the other 12 states and washington, d.c. have trans mission rates in the second-worst category. the european union has decided not to reinstate restrictions on non-essential travel

lisa: i have a producer. climbing the wall of worry especially as you get the david kostin type because at 4900 at the end of next year, if you have faith equity markets are going to continue to rally, why not buy every dip and why do we even have dips? we don't because everybody is looking toward time when it would be better for these companies. jon: pushing hide this morning come up 13 on the s&p. it lets give you the price action. your s&p 500, softer than yesterday's session. today, firmer and higher by .3%. bond market, yields unchanged, 1.1819 on a ten-year. adp report was soft. then vice chair clarity came out. we need to talk about that ism. that was the story at 10:00 a.m. eastern, at least for me, it did not get enough coverage. tom: i agree with that. it is real volatility in the limits paper of the system, the 10 year yield. they're going both ways. i am looking at a vix 17.46 which brushes off richard clarida do. then a swiss 20 year, which i featured in the 5:00 hour, and you tell me. jon: we ar

tom: lisa, please, go ahead. my fault. lisa: no worries. just got to jump in because you talk about 4600, you sound like a bear. this is a market where people can't get bullish enough. are you also thinking 5000, 6000, 7000, and projecting out incredible earnings and returns for the foreseeable future? sam: what is the old saying? you target a price, but not a date, or you forecast a date, but not a price. but yes, those numbers you mentioned will be obtained sometime down the road. but i think we also have to make sure that we are risk meditators at the same time. we have gone three times as long as we normally have between declines of 5% or more. i think that the market is vulnerable to some sort of an upset, where it comes from a policy misstep, from geopolitical factors, etc. so i think that we really have to just not assume that the sky is the limit. francine: how do currencies actually play into some of your equity calls? sam: good morning, francine. currency is an important part. we look at the technicals of the euro versus the u.s.

lisa: that's the issue. at what point do you have a world where you can look at and actually assess? the key metric here is inflation. people really wondering, and the dissidents you see on the side of a rate hike next year or three and half years is are we going to get a new inflationary regime, or are we going back to the old regime plus some? jonathan: tomorrow, vice chair clarida with a speech. payrolls friday. does he bring jackson hole alive again after governor brainard poured some freezing cold water over it? tom: are you saying you need a trip out to jackson hole? jonathan: no, i won't be around for jackson hole. the s&p 500 futures up 0.4%. nobody needs to see that. yields higher by a basis point to -- buy a basis point. . euro-dollar positive. euro-dollar, $1.1885. lisa: that was kind of ominous, "i won't be around for that." you will be on vacation, not a serious thing. jonathan: no one took it that way. [laughter] lisa: let's move on. 10:00 a.m., we get u.s. june factory orders and durable goods

lisa, save us. lisa: we are talking about the upside surprises in earnings. we are talking about how the s&p has defied expectations and has marched upward. what i find fascinating is that you have seen earnings beat again and again in astronomical beats, while the economic data has been to pointing, some of the most disappointing in about a year. i am trying to square this idea, the fact that economists are actually overestimating recently some of the economic data, but underestimating corporate profitability and corporate growth. jonathan: margins have held up. they have been able to pass on higher costs, top and bottom line growth. that has been the story, hasn't it? i just wonder whether those margins hold up. that is the key question, i think. that holds the key to performance going into the new year. your equity market up 11 on the s&p 500, up 0.25% on the s&p. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is laying out an ambitious goal today. he wants half of all vehicles sold in the u.s. to be

lisa abramowicz, is it pelosi? lisa: we could talk pelosi. we will just note that with crude, two days of the biggest gains since november. in the swamp of economic data, we have durable goods orders, expecting to get the 14th increase out of 15. the idea of ongoing momentum and demand from companies. 12:00 p.m. on bloomberg television. william flynn will be speaking. how much will he talk about nancy pelosi, the infrastructure bill and the resolution that was passed yesterday. to be clear, this is resolution. it does not give us more details and it is not a bill. how close does this get to being passed and how much is flynn in contact with people in congress to get something passed that he things will benefit his infrastructure and his network? i am really interested in this. president biden is going to rule out a number -- roll out number of cybersecurity steps. what are these outlines? how much do you view cybersecurity as the new front and build on that versus some of the other terrorist rats, especially with the backdrop of afghanistan?

lisa: we begin with the big issue.g on the fed paper timeline. >> this is a fed that wants to taper. >> this is a fed that wants to taper. >> i do not think we will see a bombshell taper announcement. >> the fed will take a read from the next jobs number. >> we will get a strong signal for taper at the fomc meeting. >> look at the numbers in september at the numbers in october. >> you probably need another one million jobs. >>

lisa surprised by that call.t about the fact that energy companies have outperformed pretty significant leap. people have been piling into those shares as a possible bet as the recovery trait is expect to gain steam. we've heard from bank of america how they could see $100 a barrel. to suddenly go back to you dollars a barrel is pretty disruptive -- to suddenly go back to $50 a barrel is pretty disruptive. jonathan: something to keep an ion. the underperformance and small caps is something we have been talking about for months. we saw that pretty profoundly in yesterday session. lisa: i think it is notable because typically people do look to the high-yield bond market for some sort of canary, some sort of forward look on risk assets. what you have seen is a pretty steady widening in credit spreads to the widest we have seen since may. nothing catastrophic. however, people are still asking to be compensated more for the risk of default. this is new, jon. jonathan: the fed gave the canary a gas mask over the last y

lisa: it is classic journalism. hope you have a good weekend with the eagles, we have a lot with you. mohammed and jack lynch in the 12:00 hour. stay with us on radio and tv. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot. pain and stress is the only thing you have to

lisa: the amazing thing is 4825 is his projection. basically, from bear to one of the biggest bulls on wall street at a time when there cannot be a fast enough upgrade. the question is what is underpinning that? we are looking at low yields, low growth and the upgrades are coming on the heels of that. tom: you correctly state that he goes from gloom to optimism, high single digits, 7-8% return. jackson hole babble is based offer earnings. lisa: it is based offer earnings, on traditional performance. new get returns like the ones we have gotten so far, it is rare to get a drawdown. it is also looking at the idea that the stock market is not the economy. companies have been able to pass on higher prices to consumers, they have been able to consolidate market share, and are doing very well. tom: with that is the recovery in oil. jeffrey curry making a splash. brent crude and the quote right now is 69.52. kailey: ubs thinks we have another six dollars or so of upside, because they see the suppl

lisa: it is really active, thrilling. i am very curious to hear about tom's characterizations of the market this morning. it is a really busy week. today, not as much. 10:00, we get u.s. manufacturing data. the focus will be on prices. how much are they rising and how much price pressures are crimping manufacturers. a record pace of hiring, trying to meet demand. how much more focus is going to be on this area as the reopening gets delayed? the u.s. surgeon general is planning to blunt -- is planning to join bloomberg television. i wonder what the guidance is in terms of the vaccine and the delta variant. we heard anthony found she coming out and talking about how it is really bad but he does not expect another wave of lockdowns . what is the threshold of pain that we are looking for? what is the criteria to decide how strict to get with respect to masking or lockdowns? today, senators are set to begin the process on the infrastructure bill that did get solidified yesterday in terms of language. $550 billion. there does s

lisa: it tells you a lot.l approach is something a number of strategists have been talking about. mike wilson came out in his notes, it goes to this uncertainty, not knowing which outcome will prevail. big tech is not going anywhere. rates are not going to rise all that much. making so much money. tom: i look at this. what we are really looking for is growthier growth. taylor: he would argue that low interest rates are helping to boost that. my big question is how do you get a cyclical trade with oil that cannot break 70? lisa: growthier value, growthier growth. tom: the price of yield down. lisa: looking ahead. we are going to be talking about a growthier growth clinic with taylor riggs. these expectations are getting more certain and are more bullish. tom: a humbling weekend for the bears. they will recalibrate after the jobs report on friday. we will drive forward your stockmarket conversation, thrilled that robert doll will join us from cross marks global investors. we need to recalibrate on this monday. f

lisa: it is pretty incoherent.der on a larger scale what this means for allies with respect to the united states. there has been pushback with the u.s. approach to afghanistan. all this at a time when we have a pandemic. talk about difficulties rubbing her head around this. jon: speaking of pushback, we had it from the iea, basically coming out and cutting the demand outlook and saying there will be a surplus through 2022. that is not the message from the administration yesterday. tom: it's the message from ed morris. that's what we're doing as we go through this chaotic summer, all of the emotions of the pandemic. we are talking to experts and my gas is this administration is doing the same thing. jon: what was yesterday about? tom: politics. covering the labor front, like any other administration theme. what is today's theme? jon: i have no idea either. i think that as just a slap down from the iea. lisa: 1,000,000,000%. that is my thought. why would they come out with this reversal after the u.s. has prices are

jonathan: lisa, have you got a clue?seems like some of the ipo's would come to new york. how much can they capitalize going to mainland china? a really important thing to watch. jonathan: very interesting going into the new year. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we are down 0.06% on the s&p 500. going into inflation numbers, one hour and 35 minutes away. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work ou

lisa abramowicz, what a lift yesterday in the equity markets. lisa: what a lift every day. we pushed -- we are pushing for the 54th highest a. this comes on yields, people are getting more complacent that the fed has this right that they have it under control and they will tamp down inflation and allow the economy to grow at a steady and relatively slow pace going into the future. tom: a big lift today, futures up, and taylor, what does it look like for the afternoon? we are completely set on what europe is doing in asia following along in the morning. by the time you get to 3:00 or 4:00, you have a different view. what did it look like yesterday afternoon? lisa: we talked a lot about the russell outperformance. yesterday, all of that unwound and you got underperformance by this reflationary stocks that we have seen. i hate to break it to you but by the afternoon, the s&p 500 typically does not look much different. we are on track now, most record highs from a january to september 1 ever. as lisa said, 53 highlights all of those fires on the sidelines, cash on the sidelines

lisa: after a year like last year. they borrowed all this money and they are using some of that to do the share of buybacks. the fact we can just go right back to our old plans with a huge gap in the middle. jonathan: the deck piles of some of these companies have lowered rates, leverage ratios are moving in the right direction. lisa: right now we are seeing that in the investment rate. it's a little bit different. brian: for the most part these businesses are borrowing this money at very low interest rates. you are not looking at a wall of maturity, you are not looking at a very onerous interest burden. it's similar to households that refinance. you take advantage of these opportunities when they come to you. tom: it tells you a lot about use of cash. i don't need to pick on amazon other than their cap expert 2019 was the last normal year, something on the order publish free cash flow growing out and then you skip 18 months because of the pandemic and the new working number is $45 billion. amazon is amazon but that pe