lisa, help me. if there is a catastrophe at amazon, if whole foods does not do sales, they lose those sales, right? but it is physical stuff, we will buy it anyway. kailey: how much does that get redeployed? lisa: where this is a point you made yesterday, people are not buying an edition, just waiting for the next one to come out. that is why we saw the shares down. the bigger picture is these two stocks account for a 10% of the s&p 500, so it is not a minor fall on the disruptions. kailey: i love the weight analysts -- way analysts at goliath, they feel the pain committees of the biggest companies out there that are feeling the supply-side issues. to your point, i talked about my apple watch yesterday, i did not want to wait for anyone because i need one now. if i did not buy an iphone 13, if i can wait another six months and get the 14, given apple's track record, will probably be better. tom: we are starting with the colonnade, peter's square, 284 columns awaiting the president and first lady the

lisa: 100% no. jonathan: it's ok, it is a safe place. lisa: is it? jonathan: what do i want to own when inflation expectations are rising and growth expectations are falling? what do i want to own when that starts to ramp up? >> we have been recommending for quite some time to be owning physical value, not just as inflation rises. cyclical value. the likes of energy companies, transportation and logistics companies. you see recovering demand. actually significant underperformance. plenty of safety and the value itself. tom: what are you doing with big tech? everybody is talking cyclical risk, consumer discretionary. i hear very little chat about continuing to own profitable tech, cash generating tech? do you just get rid of it? >> what do you do on the other site? the answer is to be very discerning. we have always categorized big tech into two blocks, the cash flow generating you spoke about, and then the text unicorns -- tech unicorns, you have to discount into perpetuity. the cost of capital is not zero. it is a very extreme example. we have broke

lisa wants to get serious. lisa: sorry to jump in.ascinating because the tray discussions are ramping up between the u.s. and china. the u.s. wants goods and people are not getting them fast enough. we are importing more than we are exporting. this has a lot to do with china. jonathan: ahead of talks with china on several levels. can they achieve something the previous administration did not with a different approach? tom: no. maybe i will be surprised. jonathan: cannot to bins the chinese communist party to change? tom: their access is different than anybody's in washington. jonathan: it is something the communist party is doing or is it about the structure of the american economy? tom: it is about differences. lisa: the issue is what is the u.s. want to accomplish. given the business opportunities companies are looking for for the u.s. into china, what is the u.s. government look to do? tom: we will see. what will do right now, we try to have every guest be a red sox fan. we have massively succeeded with megan greene, the only guest

so do you, lisa abramowicz. lisa: we have been talking about it all morning. the ecb will plan to deliver their rate decision. at 8:30, we get words from christine lagarde. how do central banks address inflation rates that have reached the highest going back to 2008, when in europe, it is met with a labor market that is weaker than here in the united states? at 8:30 am, we will get a read on what we are seeing in the united states. initial jobless claims expect it to come in at a new low of 188,000. how much does this give people confidence going into that first look at the q3 readings, the idea of gdp that was likely to slow? the expectation is it might slow much more than people think. the expectation is 2.6%. the atlanta fed gdp put out a report yesterday saying it might just come in as low as 0.2%, which is a marked shift downwards. aftermarket, we get earnings from apple and amazon. we will talk about supply chain disruptions come how much buzz had -- disruptions for apple, how much has been priced in. for amazon, how difficult is it for them to phil 100,

lisa: i will. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro.ousing data just around the corner. mike mckee to break that down. this is bloomberg. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards. so many people are overweight now, and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's release from golo. it naturally helps reverse insulin resistance, stops sugar cravings, and releases stubborn fat all while controlling stress and emotional eating. at last, a diet pill that actually works. go to g

lisa: yesterday wendy had a great point.l me one detail from the program other than we will help the children and families and help provide health care. what are the details they are haggling over? can we get our hands on the meat here? >> it's a great question. it's hard to think about exactly what the details are or the timeline because they are still negotiating what will be acceptable on the top line. the president met with progresses in a virtual meeting and what we learned is that top line will be anywhere from 1.9, a 2.2 trillion dollars. and then you start filling it in. it potentially could be child tax credits, universal pre-k and what they might do is shorten the time. under reconciliation you can even have a budget that goes past 10 years energy -- anyway. some of these may go to five years. there were a number of climate initiatives to boost the grid, to move towards greener infrastructure in the heart infrastructure package. but still, billions not included in that. once they get this top line figured then they

did you notice how on lisa's journey this tree is joining lisa's journey -- street is joining lisa's journey? [laughter] lisa: it will all be fine. jonathan: i know it is. tom: -- jonathan: equity futures up a third of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> house democrats went home last night without voting on that infrastructure bill. nancy pelosi will try again today. she is being held up by a fight between moderate and progressive democrat. they will not vote until the spending bill passes both houses of congress. they are planning a stopgap funding bill that maintains funding levels until november -- december 3. janet yellen has said that if congress does not raise the debts dealing the government may not be able to pay its bills. european natural gas prices climbed to a record 100 euros. europe is struggling to find enough: gas. -- enough coal and gas. according to an interim analysis of a late stage trial, -- another hurdle for the global economy. a metal used in everything from car parts to phone chips is scarce. global news, 24 hours a day, i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. >> you

-- lisa abramowicz. lisa: the idea that consumer sentiment is declining and this, white is confidence in the reflation story picking up and we are seeing small is this optimism, disappointing. people's optimism seems to be waning on a consumer level. what gives? jonathan: look out for the fed speak. lisa will give you the day ahead. the s&p 500, totally unchanged, advancing a single point. outside of that, yields in on tens, reopening the bond market, three basis points. the two year yield 34 basis points. we keep inching higher. tom: i am surprised at 160 on a 10 year yield. i thought on it close we would get 162 and stay there. jonathan: lisa, we keep climbing, crude, 80.70. wti up 1%. lisa: crude and 10 year yields climbing in tandem. how does this make sense when people talk about stagflation, shorter term increases in prices will dampen demand? this is something that will be an ongoing theme. u.s. august job openings, expectations to climb toward the 11 million mark. this is the big labor market que

lisa: thank you. jonathan: carry-on. >> i think unless it's a disastrous number, they are on a clear path. what we are looking for is what's happening with wages. we had that low print, the number of jobs create a. that's not because there wasn't a lot of demand. it's because supply was tight. people are being picky about choosing their jobs. it could mean a strong job market. lisa: when do we have enough data to extrapolate a trendline? it seems like everyone is saying it is too early to tell. when won't it be? >> that's a great question. we always look in the rearview mirror. it is so obvious. it's hard to see. that's the nature of the data. you get a lot of information. it takes a while to really understand it. when you put together, it's not just anecdotal evidence. there is a lot of strength in the labor market. we don't see people quitting in such numbers unless they are confident about the market. you see wages going up. those are signs that a relatively low print could be consistent with a str

lisa: this is part of the dilemma.alk about fair share and what gets taxed, in the issue with some of these big tech giants is the way they compose the revenues and how they have their streams of cash has not necessarily coherent with the way the tax law is written. do you change the benchmark rate, or do you find new ways to enforce that? jonathan: tom, would you believe it, that thing about corporate tax, that cut by the former president, could provide this administration? pretty unthinkable maybe 6, 9 months ago. tom: lisa brought this up yesterday, and i think it is the heart of the matter, but, jon, what this is is a symbolism to all lyrical persuasion, almost a band-aid approach -- political persuasion, almost a band-aid approach to richard neal is, quote, "furious." i would watch the congressman from springfield. jonathan: and it is hard to get things done in washington. tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ , this is bloomberg. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards

lisa, 7640. lisa: that seems to be the theme perhaps i'll be considering there is credibility issues. period the rescue as well as some others. we are getting the a: 30 a.m. jobs. the expectation is to trend lower and we will see probably a big spike lower, a big drawdown in the total ongoing claims. what i'm looking at is the auto sector in particular. temporary layoffs provide supply chain disruption. it's fallen off a cliff to the lowest on record. i'm wondering how much this indicates the slowdown we see that it continue to impede the labor recovery. we have the cleveland fed president planning to speak at a virtual panel on inflation along with philip. you've consumer price indexes out of the highest level going past 2008. disagreement about what's driving it. it comes out of the labor market. it's the final day of the bloomberg invest conference. is it a thing, is it not a thing. the former u.s. treasury secretary will probably have something to say on the debt ceiling debate. jonathan: tha

lisa: almost 10%. what i find interesting is morgan stanley analysts said about the potential cuts, they said if apple cannot meet near-term demand, it does not speak well for their competitors. it might mean that they can win market shares, the dynamic underpinning this idea. jonathan: tom keene, "we view today's news as nothing more than a speedbump on a multiyear cycle." tom: yeah, but, jon, this is so important. coming over on the beltway, i was thinking, jon in washington, about our timeframe. the answer is everyone is working on short narratives, where dan ives is looking multiyear. maybe we could be multiyear on bank earnings today. jonathan: we will try and do that. about 43 minutes, lisa will run you through the day ahead. here is the price action as we kick off things this wednesday. we advance .2% on the s&p on the futures. we are positive by half of 1%. hero dog -- euro-dollar 1.1569. transitory is a dirty word, tom. 1.5664 on the 10-year. that curve is flatter. tom: the first thing i notic

lisa: we are climbing to new highs in oil. i'm really watching factory orders that we will be getting for the month of august and durable goods orders. this comes as companies are trying to stock up before christmas. how much i you going to see those lag times increasing as they try to not lose sales? we will be sharing about the expectations and how china has not met some of the trade goals. it is about the lowest it has been, going back to the early 1990's, but how do we priced out the fact that the u.s. need the supplies from china and do not want to hamper the growth. how do they that lying? how seriously should we take this? we hate discussing this. people expect it to get resolved, but we are expecting a timeframe. jonathan: i can show you how fired up eli about the story. lisa: we are bumping up against a timeline. if they get republicans onboard, they have a longer period of time, but we are getting close, considering how gridlocked the party is within itself. tom: you framed it beautifully. the democratic party was --

[laughter] lisa: describe the contours. jonathan: i get the notes, lisa. i know. it is called teeing up the guest. tom: this is really important, the question you bring up. because obviously, we all know there's different kinds of tech stocks. what they are valuing is profitability, and critically, it is not net income. it is up the income statement as well. we don't talk about nvidia, when example outside the faang picture. jonathan: i caught up with john hancock yesterday morning, and they were talking about growth fading into next year, and as growth gets scarcer compared to where we are, they like those equities still. so it becomes a style story maybe more than a valuation story. tom: to me, that is richard bernstein 101, who i think is fabulous. it is profit that can be measured, free cash flow that can be measured, etc. but can you actually make profit? i just looked at a luxury maker making $0.40 even on the -- $0.40 ebita on the dollar. jonathan: i just saw that across the bluebird as i monitor the headlines. tom: this is new york city and the resurgence

lisa spend pretty much every morning at home doing this. [laughter] lisa: true story.was broadcasting from home, the kids would wake up and eat their waffles with knittel on the couch watching me, and i would try not to watch right in front of me. occasionally they would be like -- jonathan: is that why you got more gloomy? lisa: it got me really gloomy. people are getting sick of working from home which is why you are seeing people actually enjoying going back to the office sometimes. jonathan: on a very serious note on the ecb, what jacob was alluding to is the influence of inns vindman -- of jens weidmann on this ecb wasn't that great. i think you can see that more generally in the policy of the ecb, with rates where they are. rates aren't where they are because ecb president -- bundesbank president jens weidmann wanted them there. the balance bank isn't where it is because jens weidmann wanted it there. it is because draghi helps that the pastor ticket where it is today. tom: i would suggest it is still a theory waiting for a solution, and the idea of a fixed curre

lisa: what is priced in?s it peak supply chain disruption or are people worried this is just the beginning? chris: when you think about being priced in it is usually not. but the move over the last month or so has been in a number of companies morning about what q3 is going to look like, saying they will be at the low end. i think we are going to see more of that through earnings season. some is priced in but not all of it is. jonathan: i want to talk about the banks briefly. what do you want to see in the financials, the characteristics of those names? where do you want to be? chris: banks performed well early this year in part because there was an expectation and that is generally good for borrow short, lend long. but they were conduits for reopening and for more consumer spending. i think that has been muted a little bit. in the financials area we are looking for companies that tend to be the credit card companies, american express, which is a beneficiary of increased spend. that is generally where we have

lisa: where is the burden? the public sector because it is a global health issue and it is not just a humanitarian one, it is also about health to get covid undercontrol around the world? or, is this really on the specific private biopharmaceutical companies? josh: there is such a mixture in terms of how this works. the technology is supported by investment from the public sector. the actual vaccine is only possible because of guaranteed purchases and upfront investments in the case of moderna, from the public sector. that is where the technology is. you can't say go fix it without the pfizer and magenta vaccine. it is our responsibility to the world, not just to be handing out vaccine -- tom: we have our way of measuring this disaster. the good news is it is ebbing down, the number of deaths per day. do you have a target for number of deaths per day in the united states of america? josh: i'm looking forward to it going under 100. we are still at 1500 or so. tom: 1500, correct. josh: it is really high. i will f

lisa: which data points? you can pick the data to fit your narrative, as you have pointed out so many times. jonathan: any other one-liners, tom? tom: wages. jonathan: futures positive 0.1%. tom: let's start the show. jonathan: euro-dollar from her -- euro-dollar firmer. crude, $78.85 now. your equity market treading water going into this one. lisa: this is really the question. how much does it take to change the needle in equity markets, and bond markets? 8:00 a.m., september payrolls. the expectation is for 500,000. bloomberg economics estimates above where ellen zentner is. the question is, how much does this move the needle for the unemployment rate? how much does this move the needle for participation, and how much does this move spec for fed policy? 10:00 a.m., labor secretary marty walsh speaking with our very own jonathan ferro. he's going to be speaking about what to expect with how sticky wage pressures are, how to create a virtual wage increase spiral because it takes more than one, two, three year

lisa: that's fair. you and i represent a little bit of history appear. you are the first black cardinal. cardinal gregory: in the united states. lisa: black american cardinal. talk a little bit about the experience of being in that role and any challenges you may have encountered being in that role. cardinal gregory: lisa, having heard your introduction, you know a great deal about my background. i am a convert to catholicism. i was born and raised in chicago . please don't hold that against me. [laughter] having and raised in an urban environment, like many african-american catholics, the schools were a primary vehicle for entering the catholic church. and so it is with me. when i knelt in front of pope francis to receive the beretta, the ring, and the assigned titular church, a lot of that heritage was running through my head at that time. what is this going to mean for me? what is this going to mean for the african-american catholic church? and what is it going to mean for the american church in gene

lisa: how much does it matter? rajappa saying if we get another one that fed chair will be more dovish. remember when we were getting the potential for the fed to be more dovish and it led to long rates going higher? what happened to that logic? jonathan: do you think there's a chance it becomes increasingly politicized? lisa: people are saying a bigger risk to the market is the fed, versus even the debt ceiling debate, which is what president biden wants to focus on. jonathan: mario draghi saying eu joint gas prices might have wide support. this is the conversation in your. i would catch up with maria tadeo later. tom: clearly this is natural gas and other deliberative's -- other derivatives. new jersey gas is $2.33 a gallon. the equivalent in italy is $7.36. look at this line from the french leader. jonathan: we have to build energy capacity to be independent. how long will that take? tom: i think charles de gaulle said that. jonathan: that is ridiculous. they can start. how long will it take? there is a broader

lisa, how much fed speak is there today? lisa: it is ridiculous.onathan: chairman powell is a bit later. lisa: i was going to go down the list and then i realized it sounded bad. jonathan: on crude, 1.52%. tom: t commodity story is there. he other metals in a moment. the equity market -- the bears have been humbled. a bit going on in washington as people we gauge and adjust. joe mathieu joins us this morning. joe, i look at catherine wrangell in the washington post talking about the actual realities of something is a sick and simple as childcare -- of something as basic and simple as childcare. how do people in suits and ties actually write a bill about childcare? that underscores how distant america is to a social contract we see in europe. what does leadership do about that? joe: they would love to know. it might come to fruition today at the white house, as president biden holds close sessions with moderate house members and progressives. they do not ci guy on childcare. -- they do not see eye to eye on childcare. we have joe manchin saying you

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro.s is bloomberg. ♪ >> live from new york city, on radio and tv, this is berg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan euro and lisa abramowicz, and the s&p is really making a statement around these levels for the last year and year-and-a-half areas we are going nowhere this morning. it is a bomb market. 160 2.67. jonathan: is this a big deal? tom: i think it is. exit london. they are taking the traders to milan. was clarify the exit. i think you're right when out the tray. it is most luncheon traders are headed towards milan. early planning is to move most london traders to milan. jonathan: we have the details. of a chat with them and reach out to them in with them. tom: were going to set up with matthew was steady. deutsche bank is doing good. good luck with that. but it is important to talk about the changes in the dynamics of the fed policy and economic growth. you have a comment. jonathan: here's a quote. with the committee sensitive to higher-than-expected inflation data from earlier

what is the narrative -- lisa reads encyclopedically. lisa: -- what is the narrative? lisa: how much do we see consumers starting to show more discretion with what they want to buy, even though they are supposedly flush with cash. that does not bode well for the momentum of growth. i am not saying the end is near but it could potentially slow the momentum. jonathan: what did they do time to hundred years ago? lisa: i wouldn't know. jonathan: is that what they said, tom? tom: save us with the data check. jonathan: we snap back quickly, up .4%. retail sales, 27 minutes away. tom: exceptionally important research by the gentleman from dartmouth. david blanchflower joins us now. we are thrilled he could join us. i will digress. i don't john wants to -- jon wants to jump in. they got it right and nailed it on the minimum wage. now we have big tap bidding up labor to $17 $18 an hour across america did what is the effect of big tech on minimum wage? david: living in new hampshire, my kids used to go and work at the local cinema, and they would work for 10 bucks an hour. the n

lisa: people's bank of u.k.? jonathan: doing what, lisa? don't know, trying to prop up the market or suppress it? tom: with all the news we've got coming into the bloomberg terminal, aggregation is second to none. when we don't know what we are talking about, we are the first to mention it. i agree, we have no clue. jonathan: the jitters behind higher prices, what they do to growth to see equities lower, just remark will. that was the epicenter of the story for people waking up in london earlier this morning, and it is totally rolling over now. tom: i'm sorry, it hasn't moved bitcoin, $51,000. jonathan: i don't know if it was the primary driver behind the equity market either, but still off their lows. lisa: it shows how little we know about a lot of these moves because even when the price was moving as rapidly as it did, people were saying we don't understand why the price of gas is rising to this degree, and now we don't understand why it is coming back. honestly, a little bit of uncertainty. jonathan: we need to decouple energy prices fr

john is watching -- i don't know what lisa is watching. lisa: the panda cam.ed sox and the yankees. tom: do the yankees need goalie -- joey gallo? annmarie: yes. tom: this is magic. annmarie: we are first for the wild-card spot and i believe the red sox are tied with -- not sure who it is. we are in a very good place. jonathan: the blue jays. tom: good morning, seattle. thrilled to have this seattle man erin are -- seattle mariners fans with us. jonathan: you will never hear from her again when they start to do badly, annmarie hordern. producer jamie just sent in email -- retailers like walmart, costco, and dick's sporting goods have not seen the worst of the supply chain and freight inflation. at the same time, sales are decelerating, that from morgan stanley. a warning. tom: they are, but the ebitda margin on dick's sporting goods's half of the big money makers in television -- dick's sporting goods half of the big money makers. bed, bath & beyond, of course they got hammered. jonathan: i don't know of course they got hammered, but they were down 20%. tom: t

lisa, can you explain the framework?, it is frankly, i may be wrong on this, but to me, it is frontally original. lisa: it is a list of compromises with synema and manchin's fingerprints all over it. i think the really interesting thing is how little there has been talk about the stock buybacks in the new tax that is going to be a plummeted, the 1% tax. also, the extra surcharge on ultra wealthy individuals. i don't have a good sense of what is actually going to get passed. frankly, the devil is in the details, and right now we see no details. tom: we go back to virginia and the politics there. and a right to say this is a close race? kailey: it is a very close race, and virginia is a state that has turned solidly blue in the past couple of elections. president biden beat out trump by a decent margin in the presidential race in 2020. the question is, if youngkin does beat terry mcauliffe, how does that bode for other states that have been leading blue recently? what does that signal about democratic desire in order to tu

lisa: they are saying we need to grow. i do wonder if the idea of conservative financial politics with liberal immigration system it -- i was struck by boris johnson the truck shortages. you're going to offer up your services as drivers, and you're ready to go. he will not let tom keene join because they are going to limit immigration still. jonathan: tom will come in. helen you want to do that for, tom? tom: from here to calais. jonathan: the primacy of the u.k., boris johnson, addressing the conservative party conference. architecture would not of ignored the impact of finances. tom: what is the body language? jonathan: they are with him. it is the conservative party conference. tom: if you're in the republican convention, you have six or 7 -- jonathan: i was joking. i think they would be clapping if they could hear. there claps. please clap. >> unemployment. jonathan: there we go, the primacy of the u.k.. -- prime minister of the u.k.. tom: if i went there, it would be in hr violation. jonathan: come on. be respectful o

lisa: transitory.] jonathan: i will bring you the commentary from that central bank a little bit later. inflation is running at close to 20% in turkey. a very different conversation. from new york city, on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. south korea has successfully launched a home developed rocket. the 200 ton liquid fuel rocket lifted off from the country's southern coast, then released a satellite into orbit. south korea sees the rocket program as bolstering its competitiveness in next-generation 6g communications, while neighboring north korea adds to its missile arsenal. and he has given out one billion doses of covid vaccines, but while 51% of the entire population has received at least one shot, only 21% are fully vaccinated with two doses. that could mean more outbreaks in the country that earlier this year experienced one of the world's most of us stating virus waves. in england, the government has been accused of being willfully n

i'm going to talk to lisa about auctions now. lisa: virtual. carry on. tom: the 20 year auction didn't go well. what does that signal? lisa: on the margins, people are getting more concerned about long-term interest rates, although i will just say it is hard to draw any long-term narrative from an auction right now that is fast-moving and a market that is increasingly unpredictable. i don't want to make any broad assumptions. i will say the idea that we are looking at inflation expectations that are climbing, at least in the medium-term, and a market that is still not reflecting that an absolute rates, is very interesting and attention that will persist. tom: sam stovall is with us, chief investment strategist with cfra. sam, the gloom crew is out there citing history. you say yes, it is a guide, but far more, history as gospel is a threat to your pocketbook. explain how you use history to the end of this year. sam: good morning, tom. basically, what i look at is knowing that the s&p 500 is likely to close above the september 2 all-time high fairly soon.

lisa: i'm very charged. jonathan: help me out. lisa: not only are we nearing all-time highs, we see 10 year yields continuing declines of the highest level since may of this year. the idea of higher inflation, a higher yield isn't scaring the equity bowls. it actually shows faster sales offset by lower margins but still optimism. >> let's get to the price action . equity market up 29. bond yields unchanged. in the fx market, we can talk a little bit about the exit of the blunders bank. -- of the bundesbank. 82.24 for crude. lisa: which fed speakers are going to speak. this follows yesterday's rash of fed speak as well. i wanted to point to one statement by christopher waller where he said it's the upside risk comes to pass, inflation above 2% then i will favor lift off sooner than i now anticipate. we talked about how they separate the idea of taper from left off, it's not that separate even in the minds of the governor and the fed officials were looking at inflation that continues to run hotter than they expected. i'm very intere

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. rate hike conversation starting much earlier than expected. tom: it is the shock and awe of the bank earnings last night. as we heard from lori calvasina, may be a tilt towards something more positive. this is the ambiguity. do higher interest rates signal gloom or a constructive and spirited economy? jonathan: this equity market signaling resilience right now. we are within 1.5% of record highs on the s&p coming into monday, in the face of a conversation about higher rates, and the face of a conversation about slower growth in china. tom: i'm going to go to the vix, 17.53 is a good place to start a monday morning. but i do take your point on the global slowdown. i thought jp morgan was really strong friday evening, michael feroli and the team, and bruce kaz munroe writing really showed the nuances -- and bruce castor and -- bruce kasman writing that they really showed the nuances. lisa: this really goes to the point we were making earlier in the show, which is how do they hike rates

lisa: it was marginally good -- good news from lisa right there. lisa: it was marginally good. tom: every ceo is turning to the other ceo, bring it in now even if we don't know what for. jonathan: features just a little bit softer to kick off a brand-new trading week. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. tom: some guy on twitter said he -- said he things i look 101. do i need a lift? jonathan: the other one has an ego bigger than mars. who is that? tom: should i do just the eyes or the whole thing? jonathan: really interesting start to the week in financial markets. live from new york city, good morning. equity markets down on the s&p, -.4%. bond markets higher. it is the f

lisa: no.er] jonathan: i think this is the reason he is on at 10:30 and not with you and i and about 20 minutes. tom: first question, how do you like your vegemite? jonathan: run, sonali. this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. president biden is heading to global climate talks at the end of the month. he has embraced climate action as no other u.s. president has, promising to cut carbon and shift to electric cars. u.s. negotiators at the glasgow summit may have nothing to show other than promises of action. a down payment in funding to help poor countries fight climate change is unlikely to clear congress this month. the white house has once again said it will support former president trump's assertion of exec it if religion relate -- of executive privilege related to the -- has had once again it will not support former president trump's assertion of executive privilege related to the january 6 insurrection. a new bill in the u.s. senate would crack on

lisa, do you want to jump in? lisa: i think you've done a great job.: andrew joins us right now. senior ford folio manager at morgan stanley. i love this idea of lots the internals. what are internals to a guy like you? andrew: this summer we had this growth slowdown and people were very doomsday. but the 10-year bottom early artist has been going up. that's been followed by the more economically sensitive stock starting to outperform the defensive. utilities was one of the best and worst performing sectors. the market has been screaming that the economy was not going to roll over for quite a while now and it feels as though people are waking up to it. so the call of a big correction i thought was completely misguided because the internals would say no, the economy was strengthening. it big correction occurs with a growth scare not a growth acceleration. tom: watching revenues. i'm looking at 3m moments ago. it has been a challenging exercise for the last decade, yet there i am seeing revenue growth of 9%. higher than nominal gdp. what is that signal t

lisa: it did with chip suppliers.ctors have been doing pretty poorly over the last couple of days because of this, so you wonder how widespread some of these supply chain disruptions are. i think about the fact that a lot of it isn't priced in although a lot of it is. over 20% of the nasdaq 100 is down 20% or more from its peak. this selloff has been concentrated on specific, more than half of s&p stocks down by 10%. this has been a significant selloff in specific stocks. jonathan: apple is one of them, down 9.7%. down almost 10% on a big-name. tom: some of those, no question about it i defer to the sell side of bloomberg intelligence about what will go. where is -- until block -- dan ives -- mental block -- dan ives? a thousand bucks a share. jonathan: the price target when we come back. merck is bullish it's antiviral drug and we discover that next with andrew pekosz. from new york city, good morning, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: what the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. nancy pelosi will try to get a vote on the

lisa: we are bringing forward hope.it is like the famous novel "waiting for good know," analysts are usually out of investor saying rates will have a strong impact on the recovery for these banks and we will model that in 2022 and 2023. usually gets moderated every quarter where they report. when you look at the mechanics of things like earnings yields, spreads, net interests, margins, all of the stuff, it is moderate. for jp morgan yesterday, most of those metrics were flat quarter over over quarter from the june 2 the september quarter. it will take time, but you need volume. if you're not going to get it in rates, which is an easy pass for the banks and portfolio managers want to buy these banks for that reason, you need volume, which is stressed to the economy and produce a patient of the consumer. jonathan: we get numbers in nine minutes time. we will spend time in big figures, big numbers, and it will be a big distraction. before we mentioned that, you mention something that was important, fintech. companies, thes

right now, for lisa and from of its and i -- for lisa abramowicz and i, it is a joy to bring in carolf america. very much like tobias levkovich of citigroup, her strength is she started out in the trenches. if you are 17 years in a row the airline analyst of the world, and if you do securities analysis like candace browning did years ago, that is a research foundation. we are thrilled she could join us today. you have a new report out that is on bitcoin. i don't even know, did brian moynihan let you put the doge in your crypto report? candace: well, thank you, tom, for having me on the show today. actually, what we are doing today is not so much about bitcoin. bitcoin is just a part of it. what we did today is we are the first ager bank on the sell side to launch a strategist, and his job is to be the crypto and digital asset strategist. tom: look at you. [laughter] candace:candace: and lucky him. the reason we did it is because it is such a huge growing market. if you look at it today, digital assets are about $2 trillion. bitcoin is about $900 billion of the $2 trillion, so it is bi

lisa, put us out of our misery? lisa: perhaps put you in new misery. a question of the day heading into next week which is how do central banks globally grapple with much higher inflation, accelerating inflation at a time of slowing growth. not stalling growth, slowing growth. this is the conundrum as we talk about intentional inflationary pushes. is it the fact we have so much money towards the supply chain disruption that kaylee was talking about. we get that ecb rate decision and basically you are looking at inflationary rates resins of highest levels and 2008 in the euro zone. however there are stagflation or types of feeling in terms of trade and how much things are costing versus the labor market still going out in some areas. in the united states a different story. the expectations for a new sub 300,000 print. another new lows since the start of the pandemic. we also get the gdp for the third quarter at the same time. i want to point to the atlanta fed gdp forecast. this is shocking, the idea we are looking at the potential for 4% growth that's

lisa: today we get a rush fed speak. the key issue to me is how do they view the labor market, which is one of their dual mandates? yesterday we heard from a number of different fed officials. they reiterate that this is not an overly tight labor market. we get a further view on it with u.s. initial jobless claims. this is not going down materially, adding to the question of where are all the workers at a time when there's a record number of openings. i'm curious to hear what gary gensler has to say. speaking at an event hosted by the institute of international economic law talking about crypto assets. or at least i hope so. especially as bitcoin surges to a record high. the etfs starting to trade, how much more will the chair edify this trend of crypto assets. we do have a look at home sales, the expectation is that it will remain elevated after declining. the prices are so high that the barrier to entry isn't there and the supplies are so low. take a look at how much prices has increased. 20% year-over-year. i think th

lisa: what about -- investment banks. lisa: what about the real economy? consumers still are not borrowing. how big a concern is this? sonali: a huge concern. the card business is what we have been looking out for, but average loans are up 5%. on the headline, that is a great number compared to last quarter, where you saw it flat. but it is coming from the commercial businesses rather than auto loans, home loans, and cards. so people are waiting for 2020 to for that to really turn around. -- for 2022 for that to turn around. but how much do higher rates get anyway? tom: it is original territory, buried in this are charge-offs that were have as much is the gloom, and the reserve release was nothing short of lights out, and mr. dimon releases that. fortress jp morgan is intact, isn't it? sonali: it is intact, but the question now is whether they can make money. they are showing those gains in investment banking, though trading is starting to moderate in their biggest business. you have lending as well. where do they start to get ned interest income from? wha

lisa: of course.n: the irony of all of this is the current chairman of the current chairman of the federal reserve has been more dovish than the president's own treasury secretary was when she was the chair of the federal reserve. tom: be careful what you wish for. jonathan: equity futures up 21, advancing 0.5 percent. from new york city come on radio come on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. russia is hinting that it will not go out of its way to offer european customers extra gas to ease the current energy crisis unless they get something in return. regulatory approval through the controversial nord stream 2 type line. the operator said the line is ready to begin operations, there it cannot ship until approval is granted. britain has ordered a review of the planned $8.7 billion takeover of aerospace and defense firm hennepin, citing national security concerns. it is one of the last independent british aerospace suppliers, with customers including bo

let's get back over to lisa. hey, lisa. lisa: hey, liz.han that blanket of cloud cover. temperatures fairly uniform. half mile, half moon bay. that will be sticking around for a while. as we go through the next few hours, notice the green there. a few isolated sprinkles or a few light showers dotting the landscape. the down there cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 50's, so cooler today, and then we will see more of that activity, perhaps on sunday, but it looks like brighter skies for a portion of sunday as well. we have got more rain chances talk or -- talk about for november, liz, in a few minutes. liz: ok, lisa, thank you. millions of children ages five to 11 could be eligible for a dose of a pfizer covid vaccine. it is news that many parents welcome, but others are hesitant about. abc 7 news reporter karina mitchell has the details. karina: 28 million american children are one step closer to getting increased protection against covid-19. the fda granting emergency use authorization for the covid shot for children ages five to 11

lisa: absolutely, they do. jonathan: i heard it, just a limbs of positivity. -- a glimpse of positivity. your equity markets positive 0.1 percent. yields are in about a basis point or two to 1.5961%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. in north korea, kim jong-un showed off a varied arsenal of missiles designed to frustrate u.s. defense systems. it was a rare display that appeared to be the latest effort to break a diplomat asked dale made over his nuclear program. he blamed the u.s. for creating regional tensions. the house is set to vote on a short-term interest to the government's borrowing limit today. that would avert the immediate threat of a catastrophic default and set the stage for an even bigger showdown on debt and spending in less than two months. the international monetary fund will keep kristalina georgieva as its managing director. georgieva has denied any wrongdoing. the number of people working in the u.k. went above pre-p

tom: and lisa was dead on. still stunning. sarah, stunning last time with her last too short visit, you are looking for a catalyst. what's the next catalyst into 2022? what is the to do and what is the to be? >> the next catalyst is what we are challenged with right now. there's one look there at october where valuations have gone upwards and we don't have that to look forward to going forward and earnings season has been strong, intensity by mid single digits, but what's the catalyst going forward looking at 2022? we think markets will be more challenged going forward with a couple of rate hikes priced in by the markets with a yield curve that is flattening. we have to rely on hard economic data that translates into mid single digits earnings growth that should be supportive for the markets but given the valuation, it's more likely that the market takes a breather because for the rest of 2021, drama, it's hard to find the catalyst to take the market higher. jonathan: you are a phenomenal stock picker. who is executing well an

lisa: when you take control of god, there some sense of responsibility there lisa right so he's wavings thing around and he did not go through a series of very simple precautions to check on the gun that he was seeking responsibility for regardless of if somebody is subjected or not and if i were all in the gun, i would've checked it, wouldn't you. >> yes the irony here is he's been outspoken against the gun owner and everybody i know is incredible responsible alec baldwin was not in the sims not and this was an accident, it was negligence so if you get on the list of mistakes that were made starting with apparently why were live around us because the crew was shooting. can't with a weapon from alec baldwin also the hollywood arms expert, say you never point a gun in another human being onset which is something that alec baldwin did predict and the assistant director said he should've checked and he did and inquired from a previous movie because of an accidental discharge that injured someone and then you have the armor who said in a previous take that she didn't think she was ready fo

lisa: that is all fair.ut aside the controversy over the world -- over the word and how it is being used. there is this conundrum. there is so much money to spend and yet consumer sentiment has been declining pretty steadily. this has raised concerns from danny blanchflower, who says this is one of the most predictive elements of recession. no one else is talking about recession. how much can you dismiss consumer sentiment, which seems to be on a downward trend? tom p.: what i would suggest, and you have better access to this than me, look at the languor confidence measure. it comes out on your bloomberg. bloomberg may have been involved with it at one point but i think they pushed it off to another company. when we talk about inflation measures, i think you can look at different confidence measures. when we look at the university of michigan, the university of michigan measure will be more influenced by things like prices. that is down much more. people are feeling the pinch of that. the measure is hanging

lisa: is tapering tightening? tomorrow will be a key determines about whether november will be the month where we hear about the plans to taper, and maybe it begins. kathy: absolutely not. the balance sheet is going to continue to grow. we project about $9 trillion by the middle of next year, when presumably we will be done with tapering. so the balance sheet is still growing. that keeps financial conditions really easy. don't expect a rate hike into late 2022. so tapering is not tightening. but the signaling is important here. what we have seen in the past is when the fed is tapering, we see the fed is an asset purchase mode. we have seen yields rise and the curve steepen because part of the signal is they are pushing a lot of easy money into the system that should promote economic growth and inflation. as they taper and start to take that away, yields have tended to peak and we will start to come down. that is probably the middle of next year. lisa: so this is really counterintuitive, that tapering will lead to

lisa: there is a distinction. forgive me, but there is a distinction between the year-over-year comparisons, the idea that we got the surge of cash, and where the new normal is. we are looking at real pressures for prices, for how much salaries are going up. i wonder how you factor in the idea that, yes, wages are going up and all indications show that there is a tightening in the labor market that will send them even higher? daniel: i will get back to wages, but let's hit the supply side. it is clear if you look at the cpi numbers from yesterday that there's no rollover of inflation into non-rent surfaces. they are adjusting back to where their trajectory was prior to the pandemic. as far as goods are concerned, clearly we have enormous goods inflation caused by an enormous amount of bottlenecks in the system. these will be resolved in time. from the standpoint of what we jacked up in terms of foreign production to service a huge increase in import demand, that will continue. we are going to have those factories

lisa: how do you galvanize unity?was one of the greatest unifying factors for democrats out there, trump was and it highlights some of the challenges in washington this morning. jonathan: futures are a bit of a snooze this morning. it's a bit of calm this morning. yields on a basis point, 10-year, up a couple of basis points on the front end, if you basis points this morning, that's your next stop for this market. earnings look good. apple, amazon tomorrow, then chairman powell on wednesday with payrolls two fridays away. this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress, and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. jon

thank you, lisa.hen covid last year impacted spending. they have seen their incomes rebound, and they have the money and confidence to spend it. we take a look at rising optimism for holiday shopping. >> what a difference compared to a year ago. retailers and consumers are optimistic about the upcoming holiday shopping season. why? because 67% in a new survey say their income has returned or exceeded re-pandemic levels. nearly one in three plan to shop in stores on black friday, twice as many as last year. >> we have a lot of people saying, black friday is a bit of a sport and i am looking forward to getting it is stores on black friday to do some shopping and take-home products on that day. >> online product shopping will remain strong, but consumers need to prepare for potential shortages online and in stores, due to supply chain issues. >> would normally would take a very strong state for us to get has >> many expect to see a rebound from the pandemic downturn is re-vaccination rates raise confiden