lisa: we could.'s typically 12 to 18 months after yield curve inversion that things can keep rallying, and yet the old-school people say it does not matter anyway because it is all distorted by the fed. the reason why i did not come up with a narrative is because you can come up with any cute narrative to 50 market action and it is going to change tomorrow. jonathan: i was convinced after wednesday that we are just making this up. so many people are making this up. lisa: just after wednesday? jonathan: particularly after wednesday. [laughter] 1.99% on twos this morning. unchanged on the s&p and nasdaq. a confused "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. in china, a boeing 737 operated by china eastern airlines has crashed. there were 132 people on board. no word on casualties. video shows smoke and wreckage in a mountainous area of the southwestern province of guangxi. the plane that crashed was not a boeing 737 -

lisa: the tone has shifted. i would argue there is more momentum behind the 50 basis point hike them before, because yesterday jay powell came out and said, listen, there is nothing holding us back from a 50 basis point rate hike, and the threshold is to see more information showing that the inflation is slowing. you see hints of it or the threshold is to see some deflationary or disinflationary trend, to stop them. jonathan: goldman thinks they will not just to do it once, but twice. kailey leinz, at the june and may meetings, the call from goldman sachs? kailey: i think it is noteworthy that estimate has not changed, so they do think it is going to be this ramped up frontloading. i was talking to christian muller earlier about this idea of whether or not the fed is going to be able to execute a soft landing in that case if it moves that aggressively with 100 basis points over two meetings. jonathan: lisa, do you think that brings the epic -- the equity market some comfort? lisa: does it? not to be bearish. jon

jonathan: camp lisa is like a place you might not want to go to. what happens at camp lisa?hat goes on there? [laughter] lisa: you just walk around feeling kind of gloomy. in all honesty, you look at the data, getting back to this point you are raising. this idea of not wanting to go into consumer discretionary's at a time of pressure on some of these households. what counts as discretionary? is it an apple phone, and iphone? is it a natural watch -- is it an apple watch? is it these basic mainstays of households that used to be discretionary, but perhaps no longer are? sarah: i would argue something like apple went from being discretionary to something, can you imagine? when you leave your phone at home, it is like some been terrible has happened. i'm not sure it is discretionary as, on the margin, on the travel and entertainment side coming to put something off longer. if you are excited to travel, maybe you only take one trip instead of two. that is another thing that is still problematic. you're seeing oil down partially on the fact that china is once again having issues

lisa: i can't make sense of it.ame up with different narratives and is just excuses to make it work stuff there is no obvious one. people are really struggling with how long inflation will remain elevated and what the fed will be willing to do to try to curtail it step if they don't, where do you go is specially but leads to a slow down. it's a conundrum. jonathan: the seven year and five year yield are trending above the 10 year yield this morning. your 10 year about 118. lisa: i think you've got a prediction there. jonathan: i'm not sharing it today. from new york city. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future r

lisa: we have from the u.s.ties the threat of biological or chemical weapons being used on ukraine by russia according to statements over the weekend from this administration. what with the u.s. response be to something like that? seth: i will tell you what it should be. i do not why the u.s. is now holding back on providing aircraft to the ukrainians. the russians are willing to ramp up this war. if they used chemical weapons, we are in a very different ballgame. these are work rhymes. -- these are war crimes. the president of russia should be treated as such if that is what he uses. lisa: you've said that is what this is. we have heard so many talks about talks and possible optimism. you hear any optimism from the developments on the ground that there could be an offramp to this conflict? seth: it is always important to talk about offramp's. i do not see the russians looking for an offramp that is acceptable to the ukrainian population or nato. that is my worry, we can talk about offramp's. an acceptable one w

the curve, lisa, flatter. lisa: frankly, inverted in several maturities. question i have is, when did it start to pretend in session for markets? it does not seem to be portending recession if you trust equities. jonathan: joining us now is joanne feeney, folio manager at advisors capital management. i want to start we here with you joanne and go to the price action of yesterday. yields up, banks down. why? joanne: good morning, jonathan, and team. clearly the market is adjusting their expectations based on a flatter yield curve. but people have to remember that a lot of business for banks comes from checking accounts, on which they pay no interest. it would be better with a steeple yield curve, then the second thing is the concern over the growing risk of recession. which could impact the amount of loans that they make. lower loan volumes would tend to reduce earnings. i think young's have a positive outlook, given what the fed is saying. it still looks like we are going to have growing production, growing loans. we are still in a reopening recovery, even

lisa: lisa: when he was looking at -- lisa: when he was looking at what the real rates were, the facthat inflation has not moved more than 25 basis points, we have to keep her mining ourselves just stopped buying bonds and their balance sheet is near record highs. to give a sense of how easy on a terry conditions are seems to be underpinning some of the optimism in the equity market. jonathan: let's just say expectations have changed a lot through this year into 2023. crude is the move you need to look at. the bpi -- wti around $100 with a big move lower of about 6%. a story we put out your at bloomberg that this administration is considering a monster reserve release. a lot of people reacting to this, including bleakley advisory. "when something doesn't work, just do more of it?!" tom: may a little harsh. jonathan: that's what he said, tom. not me. [laughter] tom: i know. i've got a radel in my desk chez radel -- a rattle in my desk today. what is this, pile on tom day? jonathan: what are you doing with your microphone? tom: vet bill is under here and his kennel is vibrating. bring y

lisa: what are we talking about?l have a deep feelings of empathy for the pictures that we see for the children that you talk about who are now homeless and trying to find anyplace to be safe. what are the longer-term ramifications from the exodus? dr. beyrer: we are concerned about several. one is the covid transmission acquisition in these low vaccine coverages. ukraine was undergoing a public health emergency in december, january, and up to the invasion. they were attempting to immunize about 140,000 children against polio when russia invaded. the polio campaign has been suspended. these crowded conditions, poor hygiene, not enough fresh water, people crowded into train stations and buses and shelters is a terrible setting. ukraine had a serious epidemic, the second-most serious epidemic of hiv in the region. russia has the most severe epidemic of hiv and tb. drug resistant tb can spread in these situations of crowding mass population. all of this taken together is suggested that there will be lasting vulnerabilit

lisa: he basically said the u.s. and u.k. companies are going to have a much harder time estimating their russian assets. he said none of my competitors has left russia or knows how to leave russia and how much of this is just an excuse for them? jonathan: how to leave is the big question. earlier on i said that his quarterly earnings season for these energy companies is going to be one of the most controversial earnings seasons for these energy companies in a long, long time. lisa: how much pressure is there to take some of the profits and put them back into supporting consumers and how much they are paying out? how much do they then justify it? at a time when people are calling for more investment, it can be tricky. jonathan: i'm sure certain politicians are booking their media appearances right now. lisa: you are actually looking forward to this. jonathan: i'm interested to see how some of these companies will manage the pr of it. futures down half of 1%. from new york, "this is bloomberg." ♪ >> the markets are starting to

i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in the longer run, and i mean a month or so, i think the oil markets will basically recover in terms of supply-side. jonathan: the former u.s. energy secretary. from new york city this morning, good morning. futures unchanged on the s&p. the final trading day of q1, 2020 two. futures up 0.3% on the nasdaq 100. negative three basis points on the two yet -- the u.s. 10 year. on crude, lower by more than 6% to $101.30. reports that the biden team is considering a massive release of reserves to combat the price at the pump. tom: from scenic west hackberry is where we will get those millions of barrels, and that is about the strategic petroleum reserve, and it is something that will affect the global price of oil. we are advantaged with all of our coverage founded by stuart wallace, javier blas, and the rest on hydrocarbons, and we get excellent views from kpmg, regina mayor. i've got to ticket to your visit in recent days to the united arab emirates. we spoke to th

lisa. lisa: this is what you hear from people. what is the hedge for inflation at a time where you are seeing selloff at the fastest pace on record? i understand your point, which is you cannot be as number with apple shares. and perhaps you are seeing people go to stoxx because where also they going to go? tom: jon, this is the idea of, where you hide given that linkage of inflation into nominal gdp? the only answer is growth equity. jonathan: we are talking about a relative trade, elective to what? relative to cash, relative to bonds. at some point you think about an absolute trade. because inflation starts to bite. these numbers out of europe are really concerning. close to double-digit inflation growth. the number we are about to see from germany, i would have to say the ecb is going to get nervous. tom: jon, the people of america, i don't think, really understand the cultural, the bundesbank, feel of anything above 2% above the norm, which is a 4% number. jonathan: and a fee basis points over two made them nervous. now look a

lisa: who's winning? i say this realizing no one is winning right now, but if we take a look at the conflict, some people are saying russia is losing. is that accurate? maria: it is in many ways, and that is pretty obvious to see. this was an invasion that is now going on into day 22. it is costing a lot of money for the russian federation. the russian federation, vladimir putin has essentially, and i never use this language, has essentially wrecked this economy over the past few weeks, and they have not taken the main goals. they said they wanted to take the ukrainian capital, kyiv. that is still and control of the ukrainian government. this is still very much a military target that they have not been able to a compass. a lot of the places in which the main big offenses are all in eastern ukraine, but when you look at the west, this is still under the government of president zelensky, so this military operation that vladimir putin promised would be covered in glory and they could do in three to four days

i'm lisa mattea.s is bloomberg. ♪ >> there are certain issues in which a compromise is quite close or realistic. we have heard that before when it comes to the neutrality. there is a way to reach compromise. when it comes to territorial integrity, there is no way comp from eyes can be reached. jonathan: there is work still to be done. that was the ukrainian president zelenskyy's advisor on the negotiations yesterday in turkey. that has been echoed by the russians. the kremlin saying no breakthrough. much work still remains following hopes of a breakthrough yesterday following talks in turkey, where the ukrainians said there was ground for a meeting in the russians pledged to pull back militarily the operations around ukraine's capital. tom, that met with international skepticism over the last day or so, and that continues this morning. tom: the market shows it was a turn morning. turn to the equity market. jobs data coming up here. right now on the unspoken conversation of america, which fortunately m

lisa: you have the u.k. prime minister and the president of ukraine agreeing on the need for further sanctions. our sanctions working? -- are sanctions working? maria: we have seen what it is doing to the currency. we have seen there is a conversation about the oligarchs and what can they do next? the ukrainian people said that was good for this week, but we have to plan for next week and need to have a conversation about energy. what do we do with the payments still flowing to russia? this will be a conversation today when finance ministers meet. the attacks from russia continued to be brutal and indiscriminate. there will be a conversation about how to step it up particularly as we see ukrainians leave the country and images like yesterday where this is completely brutal for the civilian population. jonathan: do not miss joe on bloomberg radio weekdays at 5:00 p.m. eastern. so much to discuss. this from the central bank, some people are not going to get paid. issuers have the right to make decisions on the

i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. >> it is clear that removing accommodations is required but how much and how aggressively accommodations should be removed is far more uncertain. that is not an argument forestalling the removal of accommodations but i do think it suggests that a steady deliberate approach for the path of policy will provide space to monitor developments. jonathan: that was the kansas city fed president. good morning. futures down by 0.02% on the dow jones. on the s&p 500, we are up. yields are down by a couple of basis points. i said that an accident. euro-dollar 111. the dow is unchanged. the kremlin seems to think that the europeans should pay for gas. the kremlin is out again this morning with volumes and gas contracts unaffected. tom: where is this going? this is real time this week. no one has a clue. germany, russia, payments, and flow of hydrocarbons. jonathan: when i take a step back, i see a buyer that wants to buy gas at a salad that needs to sell gas. they are having a c

lisa: here is the issue. they actually going to come out and take steps to pressure russia, or are they going to continue this line of neutrality in a conflict where you kind of cannot be neutral, and basically say it is nato's fault for supplying weapons. we do supply baby formula and food and things like that. can they remain in that kind of nonpartisan kind of place, or do they have to be taking a stronger stance? jonathan: terry haines joined us , founder of pangea policy. the president flying into europe as war continues in europe. what you may expect this week? terry: i think what the fed may expect from the president is three things. one, he's got a prep call with a lot of the western democracies today for the summit, but we should expect that the united states and nato hone their strategies to try and figure out what the next step is. secondly, i think the united states needs to come to a really razors edge point on what its own strategy is going to be. we have seen some missteps here, most famously w

lisa: true.n: to the extent that inflation comes in higher than we would be prepared to move more aggressively by raising the fed funds rate by more than 25 at a meeting or meetings? tom: she would be talking about may 4? what is the distance now talking these horrific events, this horrific war. i'm sorry, but may i'm more interested in march 4 -- may 4. jonathan: that feels like a lifetime away. never mind what is playing out in ukraine. futures down on the s&p, and the nasdaq down around .33 percent. we back away from session highs on crude. on brent, really close to $120 overnight. in the bond market, yields down two basis points. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: he kimye up-to-date --ritika: i'm ritika gupta. president biden is trying to pressure blood may put in of ukraine. at the same time the u.s. is signaling it does not want the crisis to spiral out of control with provocative acts. it postponed a missile test scheduled for this week. the administration has refrained from discussing regime cha

lisa abided -- lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz here.tone to markets reflecting the web saw in respect to commodities and a fed that is more hawkish even if the market has not gotten that message. let's turn to russia and the bond payment that has been made, maybe? kriti gupta looking doll things russia with the chart of the day. kriti: we have to talk about these bond payments that seems to be the highlight when it comes to can russia make the payments? it seems like now they are able to but when the will they the bond total. that is my chart of the day. we are looking at the five years spread. it seems like a very muted timeline the past 10 years and then a massive spike on the back of the invasion. what is most notable about the chart is the fact you are starting to see, even as the spikes come back down, they pair some of the spike. compare that to the volatility in 2014 and 2020. those look like child play. piercing and implied 40 -- you are seeing and implied 40% default risk. can they pay in the long term? jonathan: this is such a

lisa: let's put some numbers on that. expect we will end the year of 2023 with a base fed funds rate of 2.625%, well above where the 10 year and 30 year are. you expect quantitative tightening of purchases of bonds and the shrinking of the balance sheet to begin in may. here is what i'm struggling with. if this is actually going to be effective fed tightening, why will that not translate to a slower growth paradigm that could potentially slow the trajectory of the rate hikes? ellen: it is a great question. here is the part of summers' op- ed i do agree with. he is laying out the way that the fed can't. there other job is to raise the on employment rate. that is part of their job, they have to create slack and to create slack, you have to slow the economy. we do have the economy slowing and we are taking the growth forecast down for this year, but the economy is still growing well beyond its potential which is the 1.8% range, and so you are still going to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate. at the very least to

lisa: yes. peter: that is very opaque.a: are the sanctions working quickly enough to exert the pressure on vladimir putin and, frankly, on his surrounding circle enough to boost the prospects of some sort of resolution here? peter: lisa, that is the $64 million question. the thing is that what those sanctions require is the ukrainians to resist. the longer they can resist for the sanctions to take thereby, the harder it will be for putin to convince those close to him that the cost of the war in blood and treasure is worth the effort. it's not going to happen overnight. tom: she and her nation and her heritage of family back to world war i, what level of stress are the baltic states under this morning? peter: i think -- they have reason to be concerned. the main reason for them to be concerned is not that putin is going to pivot. putin has his hands full as it is. the danger is inadvertent escalation, it seems to me. that this thing just tumbles in ways that none of us can anticipate. that is why i think the biden team has

lisa: unicredit down a most 40% in that time.l continue forward with an eventful friday. it is led by the comments of the president of the united states in an hour from now. our annmarie hordern, an important conversation of the day with the foreign minister of ukraine. stay with us on radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the american drop just two in his victory. don't forget tennis channels daily live coverage hits the are daily at 1:00 eastern. at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will be met. supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity. as a small business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving with comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the

tom: we will touch on this with lisa shalett. i look at the bond market, i look at the dynamics, and then there's the actual call of that auction you mentioned, a three year auction today, and america is the capital markets of last resort. lisa: it goes to the question of what does the fed do in this very difficult moment, talking about slowing into an economic sector. at the same time you're dealing with the idea of inflation that is accelerating for all the wrong reasons. how much are repricing and some sort of recession. how much are we actually pricing in these bands? that is really one of the big questions today. tom: we are sort of jaded by it, but we are seeing an original moment in finance history. for our audience, it is not sophisticated. for the sophisticates, this is a huge deal. jonathan: what we understand is the chinese tycoon who is now facing reportedly, according to our boarding, billions of dollars in market to market losses, trading up 170% in just two days. the lme has had to basically shut down trading. one

i'm lisa matro -- i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the negotiation does not means that ukraine is ready for surrender. the negotiations mean that there should be a solution and diplomatic pressure to stop russia. jonathan: the ukraine ambassador to the united states on nbc over the weekend. from new york, good morning. futures positive on the s&p and on the nasdaq, up 0.2% on the gnostic 100. up a little more than 0.1% on the s&p. the move in the bond market fades through 2.50%. now down to 2.46%. can we call it chaos six hours ago? tom: it was a bit messy. the pulsing on the bloomberg terminal is definitely calmer now. with the uproar over president biden and the trip, we thought we would talk to the adult in the room who could actually give perspective. wendy schiller at the taubman center for american politics at brown university is definitive in the span of american history. obama, 2008. i know that i don't look like the americans who previously have spoken in this great city. obama clearly talking about jf

lisa: they have moved a lot already.e cannot underestimate how much they have shifted talking about a 2.8 percent fed funds rate in the near future. that alone is a huge move. however, it seems like the leadership does not agree. the leadership seems to have more hesitance than the rest, which make me wonder how much traction you can get. jonathan: chairman powell coming up. we will hear from him twice, i believe. that's the fed. this is the boj. kailey leinz, the ecb think about making a move. the fed has made a move. governor kuroda wants no part of it. kailey: the message from the boj is follow your other central bank friends are jumping off the bridge, you don't have to go, too. they see no reason to raise rates even as cpi could reach 2.8% in april. the commentary on the yen also really interesting. saying sometimes it could be a positive if the yen is weaker, but it is more about dollar strength at this point then yen week this -- yen weakness. jonathan: let's get some single names and say good morning to romaine.

lisa: would that be enough?eason i asked that is because you have an increasing number of analysts saying we are getting to the point where central banks lack the ability to influence inflation and even growth given some of the shocks. you think that will make a difference from the ecb at a time when the economy is getting hammered by some of the pressures from the invasion? david: there is no doubt. it would feed slowly through the economy. the exchange rate impact would be dramatic and fast. that is why sit at the outset the best tool for them available is to talk up the exchange as best as they can. the way they can do that is by giving the market greater certainty and the conviction they would raise rates they will think in terms of moving towards a positive rate this year or very early next year. that certainty is important and you would see an immediately beneficial effect from the exchange rate and immediate feedthrough into inflation to make it much easier for them to macro manage the economy. tom: brent

lisa: i can't answer that question. is it because people are more optimistic about talks or because the global economic slowdown the people are expecting has accelerated by the prospect of ongoing supply chain snarls stemming from china? i don't know but i know it significant and it comes as stagflationary is absolutely at the wrong moment. tom: brent crude is back after the huge technicals. it's worth watching and food emotion as well. chicago rices up 69% since 2016. that does not correlate with thailand but it shows rice is beginning to move. jonathan: i'm looking up to catching up with jp morgan. equity futures are at session highs up more than 1%. equities are up in crude is down. look at this in the bond market, up 10 basis points, almost 2.1% on tens and two through 180 in the fed is a couple of days away. lisa: people are bringing up their forecast for how high the terminal race for the federal reserve may be given how much inflation we are seeing and how long it is persisting. that's what we should watch. as yo

lisa: what is the offramp?s at the idea of assuming a posture of neutrality, as our story suggests, that that message has helped vladimir putin get to a more conciliatory place, or is there something else in the works? if we are talking about this without the prospect for a cease-fire, has anything changed? jonathan: futures higher on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up 1.5%. on the bond market, back through 2% on the 10 year yield. crude off session highs. euro-dollar showing a bit of strength on the euro side, 110.11. lisa: reassessing what we heard from madame lagarde yesterday, coming out and talking about possibly accelerating the taper of the pandemic era purchase program. they are all hoping for a diplomatic resolution. the reason why we are being pessimistic or skeptical is not because we don't want it. everybody wants this. european leaders are finishing up a two day meeting in versailles. they are trying to figure out a way out of this while preserving some of the ukrainian land as we deal with these images of

lisa: something else. tom: thank you, lisa. lisa: absolutely.e are concerned about the oversight and the integration of hong kong into mainland china, and they are concerned about the financial passageways being frayed, so they are using singapore instead of hong kong. you are seeing this sort of trickle that has accelerated as people get concerned about the lockdowns that are imminent. jonathan: the ceo of credit suisse said not taking any decisions yet on russia. the bank is reviewing the situation. it will exit several emerging-market businesses. they will have to look at russia and east europe. be interesting to see how this develops. the banks are moving much more slowly, for obvious reasons. it is taking a wild to get definitive answers for them. futures up zero point 1%. big turnaround in crude. wti, $94. yes, that's right, 94 dollars $.50 on wti, down more than 8%. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. ukraine's president valletta mayor zaleski -- president volodymyr zelens

lisa: why?it because people think the market needs more support, perhaps the fed will be concerned about the uncertainty? it is not the inflation data. what is the response function in markets if data comes in hotter than expected and if people think in his geopolitical risk that will be driving central-bank action? jonathan: the inflation data in italy, the estimate was 5.5, he came in at 6.2. tom: i'm going to james bullard and the shock that he had in real gdp. target earnings coming out and maybe that will help with the american story. can you overlay a global inflation for longer you get out to the animal spirit of nominal gdp and granted there are problems down the road, but things keep going. jonathan: i think that is what you are teeing us up for by the communication we get from the fed from later this week in chairman powell and on march 16 when they meet and decide. lisa: how much do we start to see people pile into the haven bet in bonds and see inflation surge itself back up the main

lisa, unchanged on my screen. 20%. lisa: what are they trying to achieve? they don't have foreign investment. they have been cut off from the entire financial system. they're dealing with inflationary pressures that are out of control because of the appreciation of the ruble, but how does the central bank deal with an economy that has been made a global pariah because of the war they are charging in ukraine. jonathan: we have to talk about the inflation target and their ability to get back on target. the bank of russia, we may return to the 4% cpi target in 2024. kailey: it sounds optimistic. i pulled up the ruble to see if there is any reaction. we started the year at 74. this is extreme pressure on the economy, and two years down the road, they see normalization that it's really interesting, and i think the headline from the bank of russia is entering a restructuring phase. that is what we are calling it. jonathan: that is a restructuring that we are going through. perhaps beyond. we will ray -- wait further changes based on the situation. higher inflatio

lisa: this really highlights the divergent state of the u.s. and europe in the face of these stagflationary shocks. how much can europe do something? there was a story overnight from the european team talking about how it is a given that the ecb will push back any rate hiking cycle in response to what you are seeing right now. jonathan: it is for the european lenders, earning credits by 9.4%. deutsche down by a present. -- 8%. pretty brutal for european banks. tom: this is old world analysis. even the great stephen roach does this. you go to the balance sheet analysis. we cannot do that with russia because they have not adjusted, including the ruble. in other places, those adjustments are happening in real time. jonathan: these weekly moves are something. lisa: if you look at benchmark european stocks, they are down with the biggest weekly loss going back to 2020 at the height of the pandemic. i am blown away on this. 40% weekly gains. that is what we are looking at with price action every single day as people glean what could happen from the u

i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. >> we have an upside surprise on the adp report in the united states of america. a small one, but an upside surprise. $455,000. 486 from 470 five, numbers out of adp ahead of the payrolls report coming on friday. the estimate, $490,000. we are down about zero point 4% on the s&p and the nasdaq down about 0.6%. just short of 240. michael mckee is with us. what do you see? michael: this is the most hated indicator on wall street that everybody trades. there is nothing else happening today. you may be move the market is way or another. it comes in line with where you would expect it to be for the idea of the friday payrolls report. this is only the private payrolls. but it was broad-based according to adp and that is the kind of thing that the fed and the market would like to see. seven 9000 goods producing jobs, 59,000 in manufacturing. there was a story about how manufacturers are having to turn down work because they do not have enough employees. they seem to be fin

lisa: but not everyone.m, i was struck by in your research how you were talking about possibly aggressively shorting specific names. why is this a time to start doing that rather than simply staying away from what you don't like? adam: i think you can always make more money if you have the ability to long and short stocks, lisa. i think the peak of when you wanted to do this was almost a year ago when you had the huge short squeeze that heard a lot of head -- hedge funds. since then the number of stocks that have lacked the market by 20% or more has been way more than the number of stocks were beaten by 20% or more. that is a good environment for shorting. there are plenty of names that have a lot of idiosyncratic risk, and those of the ones you want to short. particularly if they miss margin expectations. when i look across the stock market i look at industrials. a lot of them already have record-high margins. they are forecasted by the analysts somehow to have even higher margins, yet we know they have a l

lisa: in general. there is a feeling where you were talking about investing in riskier assets to try to get bigger returns for pension funds and foundations and you have a lot of big investors saying you have to lower your expectations in order to not just lose your shirt and risky assets. what is your view? bill: going forward, i've shared this for a few years, not with the faangs, i think an investor can only expect 5% to 6% going forward. these are days in which interest rates will be rising, they will be pressuring corporate profit margins, they will be affecting the housing market. there is less liquidity in the marketplace. a 5% to 6% return instead of a 10 like peter lynch used to call it or even 20%, which most millennials and new investors think they deserve is probably a pretty good number. lisa: which asset class would you choose as having the most,'s if you are restarting your career -- having the most promise if you are restarting your career now? bill: probably commodities. i would not ch

i'm lisa mateo.ce talks between ukraine and russia have ended for the day. ukraine is seeking a cease-fire. russia says it wants what it calls liberation for the donbass region in eastern ukraine. president biden has renewed his efforts to per se -- to persuade congress to seek taxes from the largest corporations and wealthiest households. it includes a modified wealth tax and eliminates the carried interest tax rate for investment funds. key members of opec have a message for the u.s. trust us. they see oil prices would be even more volatile if it were not for the cartel strategy. opec and its allies, including russia, meet thursday to decide on output levels for may. so far they have resisted calls from the u.s., japan, and europe to pump more oil. the ftc has sued to stop into it from telling per -- stop intuit from telling its customers on turbotax at its services are free. the ftc says customers spend time and effort on turbotax only to find a have to upgrade to a paid service to complete their

lisa: it seems the u.s.as moved on because of these tools in terms of passing the tests, china not so much, still trying to figure out the right approach after years of zero covid policies. what do you see as they most likely progression as a supply chains are still cramped and factories are still shut down occasionally as the virus passes through? dr. hansoti: there are a couple different things at play in china. the challenge with zero covid was there was no natural immunity. it depends on the health policy for having individuals with covid still engaging with the workforce, still being able to interact with others and impact on the health system. what we saw in the united states with omicron was even if you had covid you can come back to work after five days of being asymptomatic. china needs to think about adopting similar policies to ensure the workforce remains whole. lisa: on the subject of immunity, we were discussing this off air and i will ask you on air as well. i have had my vaccine and my booste

jonathan: lisa, your two-year, 1.84. lisa: amazing what people have already priced in today head of the fed. we're watching february retail sales today at 8:30 a.m., and at 10:00 a.m., we have housing data. i am curious, two sides of the same coin. how much inflation can consumers in the u.s. feel before they start to reduce their purchases? how much do we see gasoline prices near the highly -- highest levels of 2008? rents are surging at the fastest pace on record on the heels of this massive gain in home prices, and when does that lead to dampening in the consumer sentiment? does not seem to be happening yet. and :00 a.m., the ukrainian president is addressing both chambers of congress -- at 9:00 a.m.. people are looking for no-fly zone discussions. how much are people going to say, ok, let's go a little further? and how much does he doubled down on some kind of negotiating docs we're hanging about from the kremlin and from -- negotiating talks we're hearing about from the kremlin and ukrainian negotiators? and there i

lisa: what do you do instead? i think that speaks to this eu arrangement we are hearing we are likely to get more details about, borrowing a lot of money to spend on different types of energy, on securing other methods in order to necessarily bolster themselves without having to rely on gas and oil in the same kind of way. at what point are you going to hurt yourself for some long-term gain, and can you do that unless you pledge big money behind it? jonathan: struggling to understand the policy response at the moment. the team at bloomberg suggesting the eu might be putting together a fund to help with defense and energy as well. we don't have size, we don't have details. the symbolism is there, though. lisa: i go back to german chancellor olaf scholz saying they would meet on that 2% military spending that is the nato budget goal. jeffries put out a study i thought was fascinating, saying if non-us members of nato increased defense jets 2% as required, that would mean they would have to increase the defense budge

lisa: is any of it surprising?y were considering further sanctions, including oil and gas. shell example find this over the weekend, making apologies almost four buying discounted crude from russia. how much would change the on the ground reality if these sanctions were to go into law? javier: i think it will change significantly the situation. despite sanctioning, everything through the pipeline and all the natural gas is flowing. more gas flowing into the european union then was flowing before the invasion of ukraine. it will change the situation on the ground. if everyone in the market were speculating on the discussion, it is difficult to speculate that you have the secretary of state on the record saying this is a discussion and not only a discussion for the united states government but with europe. lisa: a lot of people have pointed out that rush only accounts for 3% of employee -- of imports to the united states. javier: it is about the alliance with europe. the number is higher because you are right that it

lisa: this is really an information more.en tracking some of the cyber concerns around the world, how much it has been heating up. that may be one of the takeaways from this conflict, how much of this is an information battle as well as cyber predominance, how that plays out going forward as the new frontline. jonathan: rt and sputnik and subsidiaries will no longer baby spread their lives to spread putin's lies and divide our union. the eu is pretty strong on this. tom: where will they be tomorrow and the next day? this continues. the khaki bombing last night, and now closing the gap. jonathan: similar story coming out of the united states in president biden. estate of the union later this evening. from new york city this is bloomberg. behold...unlimited wireless for only 30 bucks. that's pretty cool, but you know what's cooler? saving up to 400 bucks! exactly. and if we really want to take it up a notch... get all that and nationwide 5g included. oh nice shot, send that to me. i got you. break free from the big three and ge

lisa: he has been. he wanted to buy macy's at the heart of the pandemic, and i was like, you are 11. no. jonathan: you need to get him on the show. actually had young 'bramo on my radio show years ago, and he made some good calls than. he was about six years old then. futures up 0.25% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up 0.1%. yields higher by five basis points. in the commodity market, 112 dollars. crude not doing much this morning. lisa: still at $112, a far cry from where we were. i keep coming back to this idea of francisco blanch talking about how $150 on brent in his -- on brent is his base case. i wonder what that would do to the empire commodity complex. how much would that disrupt stocks, given the fact that so many companies, you absorb those costs and you start to see signs that consumers are pushing back? jonathan: i've mentioned it a few times, we have not done really in-depth on this story over the last few hours, dollar-yen. you have been on top of that, bringing together asia and what is happen

lisa m: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. russia will cut military operations near to city in ukraine, including the capital of kyiv. moscow says talks are in a practical phase, and a meeting between residents is possible. -- set the stage for negotiations, which had passed its own version. the measure included $52 billion to bolster tip manufacturing. nielsen, the tv ratings company has agreed to be bought by a group of of equity firms for about $16 billion in cash. the consortium is led by brookfield asset management and elliott management. unitedhealth has agreed to pay about $5.4 billion in cash for home health provider lhc. it will become of unitedhealth s optimum health unit. it provides more than 12 million at-home patient interventions a year. actor will smith has apologized for slapping presenter chris rock on stage at the academy awards. the academy has opened a review of the misbehavior. ticket prices for rock's comedy tour have surged. the minimum price rose from $46 to $341. global news 24 hours a day, on air and

lisa: he's always fired up.om: i did a lot of reading this weekend, and the summary is putin's loneliness. that was the message, article after article, book after book. jonathan: let's cover that with bloomberg's annmarie hordern in washington, d.c. speak to vladimir putin's loneliness. annmarie: he's incredibly lonely on the international stage. we know that, especially when it comes to the west. his one friend, and that is going to be the topic to discuss today, is beijing. where it is beijing potentially move a little bit of the pendulum towards moscow or k yiv? russia has asked beijing for military assistance. the issue china has if they were to do this is that would be escalating, getting rid of that veneer they have of neutrality. this is something they have wanted to maintain. they have not come out and criticized or condemned russia directly, but at the same time, they have not exactly helped the ukrainians, so they are put in this difficult decision, and that is what jake sullivan will discuss today wit

lisa, that advances by 2.7%. lisa: there is a consensus that seems to be moving.f that is the consensus among many, why are we not there yet? some people say it is because people cannot post enough margin, enough collateral as monthly big clearinghouse is important -- in order to prevent trade on, and i find that fascinating. jonathan: 119, up 3% or so. guy johnson will pick up on this later on bloomberg tv and on bloomberg radio, i'm sure. the economic outlook is "challenging." understatement of the year, i think. >> that is one where you can use, but does it go far enough to describe the real cost of living crisis that the u.k. is facing, only to be exacerbated by the ongoing session in russia? what is he going to do today to try to ease those pressures? we talked so much about monetary policy. fiscal policy will be in the spotlight now as well. jonathan: richard, good to catch up. some holdings of years we want to get our teeth into in just a moment, let's start more broadly. inflation is going to sent different to what our audience hears quite often on this pr

lisa: how much does this lead to civil unrest.saw in the arab spring, they were damaged from food shortages and will we see a repeat of that. people talk about how this connie globally and particular in the u.s. and other developed markets are less dependent on oil. if the price of oil goes up dramatically, it will not have as big a ramification on consumer spending. how do you factor in that it's not just oil, it's all the commodities. it's all of these imports and how do you factor in the response. jonathan: the commodity intensive miss of gdp will be lower than used to be but we still need crude we still need oil. tom: absolutely, with the challenges we had, i've been in dubai when we had audio challenges so that's normal. i want to talk about what s damienasshauer says. will we see a default tomorrow by russia in some way where they have a yield of 12%, a ruble where we don't know the value and equity markets shut down? i don't think we are making enough about the tension in moscow into tomorrow. jonathan: we need to define wh

lisa: thank you so much.et more on the commodity shocks with javier bloss who covers all things commodity for us for bloomberg opinion. the decline in oil has been dramatic. what you make of the volatility? is there something telling about the financialization of this market? javier: you are right. it goes beyond the fundamentals. the fundamentals remain tight, if you look at supply and demand, it would suggest prices would be higher. looking at the financial market for oil, we see liquidity over the last few days. we have seen more behaving like they need to take care of the value of their balance sheets of the margin calls rather than what they see on supply and demand. many have taken raises off the table and are trying to protect the balance sheet. kailey: we heard from the u.s. energy secretary jennifer granholm speaking on cnn, saying oil companies need to be sensitive of the situation and step up and increase supply. even if shale players wanted to serve at the pleasure of the president, do they have t

lisa: that's right, there is some.desjardins, thanks very much. ♪ we'll be back shortly with the discovery of a long-lost shipwreck off the coast of antarctica. but first, take a moment to hear from your local pbs station. it judy: finally, a bit of brighter news, this time from the deep sea. off the coast of antarctica, deep underwater, researchers have discovered the british ship called "endurance," the vessel that launched one of the most remarkable stories of survival and determination. william angham has our report. william: she has not been seen in more than 100 years. this is the endurance, resting 10,000 feet down at the bottom of antarctica's when elsie. just a few cn enemies -- cm enemies and other creatures bear was to survival. in january of 1915, a sturdy ship that had carried british explorers to the coast of antarctica. the captain's plan was to land and then cross the entire continent, which would have been a first, but the endurance got stuck off coast, trapped ib massive halo of cis that grows around

lisa: can you build on that? the true buildup not only from the united states, but the united nations, how big it has gotten and what the thresholds will be before they start to actually take action in a more active way? >> by the way, when a lot of people heard that line that he has a goal and couldn't statement power, -- couldn't stay in power, many people have been trying to de-escalate actively, saying we should not use this kind of language. what we need right now is a cease-fire and stop to the war. i am not sure how vladimir putin will take this. particularly in brussels, that one line, that particular sentence, actually took a lot of shying away from the big moments we saw at nato and the european union on friday. what we're seeing, and this was the big nato meeting, was a very clear signal from the secretary-general dalton riggs that we will see more troops on the ground in eastern europe, particularly under the umbrella of nato. nonetheless, these are u.s. troops on the ground. we are talking about with

lisa: what will that do, though? if this has not worked in the market is responding as if he sanctions have been implement it? jonathan: yields lower, two basis points. crude higher to 1 -- to $112. brent really close to $120 overnight. , heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: keeping you up-to-date with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. the war in ukraine has ended its second week. russian forces pressed ahead with their offensive. they fired missiles at the capital and stepped up their campaign to take the coastal south. more than a million refugees have to neighboring companies -- countries. second round of talks is set to take place today. customs officials seized a giant yacht owned by rosneft ceo igor sechin as part of sanctions against russia. according to french authorities the yacht was docked and prepared for an urgent departure. the price of oil sort to its highest level since 2008. and rapid wage growth in the u.s. is not going anywhere soon. the jobs report friday. hourly earnings rose an

lisa: what does that do to the euro? we have not even talked about the swiss national bank, with the swissie through parity for the first time in years overnight. let's get you something will names and say good morning to romaine. romaine: the equity markets are a forward pricing mechanism in theory. the commodity market price is in the here and now, and you are seeing the intersection of both of those worlds here. when you look at the premarket movers, everything to the upside right now is pretty much tied the commodity space in one way or another. all higher in the premarket. occidental shares up about 10% right now. it is not just the big oil majors out there that are moving higher here. a lot of the smaller independent oil and exploration companies in the u.s. also rallying hard. rally exploration up about 6% on the bet or the speculation that the biden administration's policy position of renewable energy and the restrictions it has on drilling in the u.s. might have to be eased in light of what is going on with the