lisa a.: a demand issue as they have a zero covid policy.e saw data points out of china over the weekend. this is a massive story. we saw ongoing weakening and we saw producers pass along price hikes to consumers. we hadn't seen that before. the price index inflation has risen the most since the 1990's. how does that bleed into their economy, the second-biggest in the world? jonathan: em in china is more of an interesting story. lisa a.: it is interesting, not that i'm going to buy it, but i think people are looking at companies that are being allowed to fail for the first time, which is a new thing. people think this is a good thing and it perhaps means free market. jonathan: kailey leinz? kailey: you see the power crunch in particular is biting and that comes back to the conversation, why cop 26 will be so difficult because china is telling coal producers to produce as much as they can. they are worried about shoring up support for the communist party and less worried about climate change. jonathan: up 17 on the s&p. 4/10 of 1%. apparently

a penny stock. unbelievable. lisa: is it a car company? jonathan: they make cars, don't they? : is at the main business? jonathan: should we value the stock as a tech company is what you're getting at. lisa: you talk about companies being what they are because it is main purpose. i wonder if we will think of tesla as a battery company or a space company. jonathan: interesting. lisa: is there snark? jonathan: i did not spend enough time thinking about that. why do you think everything i say is snarky? it is authentic reaction. i am fascinating listening. joining us is the global debt and rate strategy had at ing. we have going through the central bank decisions, the bank of england, the federal reserve, what do you make of the repricing of rate expectations we see? >> is overdue, i would say. the front end of the u.k. curve is a step ahead of the rest. there has been a big -- of the front handle of the u.s. curve. a really benign reflection of where we wanted to go. we have to remember if you buy a two year today and november 2020 3 -- that matures in november 2023 in all probab

tom: there is a guest, lisa. nathan: lease that be a previous -- ape -- lisa used to be a frequent guest. tom: i talked to al from new jersey. look for weekend programming in 2022, the real -- jonathan: i miss lisa's old weekend show. just 30 minutes of lisa rating out everything she wants to show with lisa reading out everything she wants to say that you stopped her from saying. tom: namath the real lisa. -- name it the real lisa. jonathan: the risks just happened to be negative. tom: the biggest negative risk is we are all going to davos. it is under negotiating. jonathan: what are we negotiating? tom: the gulfstream. we have the smaller plane. benioff has 22 seats. we cannot get lisa's entourage on. jonathan: i am happy to start the coverage. when we get out there, we have to reflect that what happened in 2020 in january when china started to shut down at that conference was totally asleep. tom: i am losing the right word. you are right. happy valley stopped for the president of china and maybe there was not en

a record trade surplus out of china. lisae idea is how much of a boost do they get from this versus how much decline do they get from people wary of doing business if workers are told to stay home because one person. covid. jonathan: on economy and politics and china has been tricky all year. matt: it is always tricky, because you are not ever 100% sure of the numbers that you do get a for example, with zero covid, we don't know what the covid situation is like there. there could be bigger out books -- outbreaks that have not been publicized. if they close a port for just one infection, do you believe that or are they closing it because they are having a big outbreak? we won't know the truth. jonathan: data integrity has been a problem for a long time. has that not changed at all? matt: i don't think it has changed, at least in my 20 years as a journalist covering the global economy and china. i think the expense we had out of wuhan shows there is still a lot of opaqueness. jonathan: if it is bad and it must be really bad. li

a small issue. jonathan: that is the point of the weekend. lisa: how much dynamism is there, especially as you see wages lagging behind some of the price increases we have seen. today, not a lot of economic data. the main point is 8:30 a.m., u.s. empire manufacturing, the first read on this month's manufacturing at its -- amidst some labor market shortages. that will be the focus. the expectation is that there will be an ongoing increase in manufacturing. still some momentum there. today on this show, we are lucky to have x new york fed president bill dudley, joining us around 7:45. then former richmond president jeff lacker joining us. the focus very much on who will be the next fed chair p i want to bring you this quote from janet yellen on "face the nati on." she basically is reported to be supporting fed chair powell earlier this time around, when asked about it, she pushed back, saying she thinks jerome powell has done a good job of running the fed, what -- but what is important is that president biden chooses someone who is experienced and c

a real break may mean more restrictions. lisar was describing austria as a mountainous region where people don't see their neighbor. what is the end limitation process going to be for austria to get compliance with this compulsory vaccination mandate? maria: this is very difficult to do and to measure, but what we see right now, there is a lockdown for unvaccinated people. you put police men and women to track people and ask for their documents. you could argue they will put into place a system online in which you will have to prove you've been vaccinated and the government will probably get on the phone and call people who are not registered, telling them starting in february 2022 they will have to get vaccinated, otherwise there will be fines. matt: i'm a huge fan of austria, love vienna where there are no mountains. i built a car that was -- i bought a car that was built in grot and i like to ski in -- but the european growth picture, it is germany. they are just bringing in a new regime. what can olaf scholz and his friends i

lisa: a little bit around the edges given that we have frontloaded the rally. where are you taking consolidation right now? ben: tech would be the obvious place. it has done well. i take a lot of comfort from the rally. putting back a little bit on tech. the near term story is the growth acceleration we are having. you saw it in the retail sales numbers. you look at the fed, gdp for the fourth quarter. nearly 9% growth. we were at 2% last quarter. really focusing on the cyclicals, the commodities, the segments of the market that are sensitive to this very strong growth recovery we are seeing. the market passed a huge stress test. we were worried about the fed tapering, we were worried about interest rates. we had a big repricing of the fed and markets are yawning. jonathan: are we looking at a repeat of q1? is that the playbook? ben: it is the reopening stocks, the more cyclical sides of the economy. who has the most sensitively to this growth rebound we are seeing? the numbers are far too low after the fourth quarter. jonathan: the optimism of ben laidler of et

that is a point of crisis. lisa is a point of crisis at a time when this nation has been absolutely battered with an inflation rate of astronomical proportions. you do wonder what kind of not contagion, but what kind of banking channels are looking stressed at this moment. tom: kailey leinz with us here. jon ferro off on an eventful tuesday. coming up at 8:30, michael feroli will join us of jp morgan. this will be a timely conversation. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: but the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. there's never been a coordinated attempt like this to bring down oil prices early of the u.s. will release 50 million barrels of crude from its strategic petroleum reserve. china, japan, india, and south korea will also release some of their stockpiles in the decision to collectively discharge stored oil. the latest coronavirus wave in the u.s. is taking its toll in some states and care units. some parts of the country are seeing outbreaks that are as bad as ever. in 15 states, patients with confirm

i'm sorry, lisa, this is a rich tuesday before the data onslaught tomorrow. lisa: retail sales are particularly important at this moment. how much do consumers continue to buy despite inflationary fears? frankly, in the data we are showing that they do. pushing back against one of the concerns, higher prices. tom k: thank you for watching across america and globally. mohamed el-erian really talking to me off-camera about the data dependency, where we are right now in looking at the data. greg with a heated note this morning said the inflation hysteria is wrong, this is an indisputably strong economy, lisa. that is what he sees in the data. >> the inflationary data -- hysteria is different depending on who you're speaking with. there is a political debate of "are we headed back to the 1970's?" pretty much every expert says it is not an accurate portrayal of who we are -- where we are. then there is the concern that higher prices could crimp economic growth naturally and create a really difficult situation for the lowest-income individuals. i think we have to pa

lisa abramowicz. jonathan: and we wait a little bit longer. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up four on the s&p, advancing zero point 1%. we keep waiting. tom: it is almost like waiting for a new yankees manager. we are waiting, and what is fascinating here, get out the calendar, you were right week

, jonathan ferro has a cup of tea? lisasure he makes espresso and it is prophetic calibrated and all of that. tom: kailey is having her tea right now. a gluten-free herbal thing. [laughter] we are going to get smarter as best we can with kona haque. she is with edie and death -- with ed&f. let's start with coffee which is jaw-dropping. let's start with any assumption, your world of coffee has gone up ginormous and a cup of coffee at starbucks has not gone up as much? why is that? kona: it takes a while to get through to the retailers. this is a fast-moving market. the crux of the reason prices shot up is because of the brazilian harvest. i suppose the retailers have longer before they pass on the price to consumers. it is wages, inflation, energy bills. was that gets passed on, it will happen. tom: turkey is up 21% this year and you say it is an energy of -- a transfer of energy and hydrocarbons. can you call a commodity account to a new super cycle where we talk about turkey up 30% next year? kona: general food inflation h

tom: that is a not -- that is outlier call, let's be clear here. lisabased on what we heard from bill dudley another former fed officials, can this gain traction? what does it do? tom: i think it is one of the scenarios out there, but 4.00 is a lot different from 3.25%. kailey leinz in for jon ferro here on tv and radio. a seattle slew of economic data on wednesday. we squeeze in all of that weekend data as well, and then onto december and the jobs report. please stay with us. they futures up 15. this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: in suburban milwaukee, wisconsin, an suv sped through barricades and into a christmas caray -- christmas parade. police arrested one person. they are not saying anything about a possible motive. a police officer did fire his gun, trying to stop the vehicle. the kremlin is dismissing u.s. claims that there is a russian military buildup for a possible invasion of ukraine. president putin accused the u.s. of trying to increase tensions with allegations. pfizer says its vaccine proved 100% effective against coronavirus in 12 to 15-year-o

make that a double. lisa: you paint such a flattering picture.e this a seven-year auction? jonathan: joel, thank you. lisa:lisa: low blow, tom. [laughter] jonathan: tends today, tom. lisa: $25 billion of 30 years tomorrow. tom: the reach here of reginald jones, who got all this started, this goes back to my youth and accompany called ldv. i'm sorry, conglomerates just don't work. what can i say? i think this amazon question is serious. lisa: that was the view three years ago, and then suddenly at the end of last year, be war saying actually, -- last year, people were saying actually, some of these may make sense if they have pricing power. the key is the synergy. i hate that word. i know you do, too. tom: we've got breaking news. peloton traduced his strength -- peloton introduces strength training tv device with camera. jonathan: i thing it is fair to say that industrial conglomerates don't work. this is bloomberg. so many people are overweight now, and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and

lisa was gone, dead at 39, killed by a bullet at close range to the head. es how he argued with lisa, then went out to his workshop to cool off, and when he came back in maybe 20 minutes later, he found her on the bedroom floor, his handgun nearby. so deputies tested lisa's hands for gunshot residue. they did the same with brad and laci. that to tell them who fired the gun and -- lisa's right hand tested positive for gunshot residue. brad and laci came out negative, meaning, it seemed to the coroner, that lisa, for reasons unknown, must have killed herself. did it make sense to you that she would commit suicide? >> nothing made sense to me that night. >> yeah, i bet. >> i had heard statements, you know, that she was troubled about reaching 40. she had had cosmetic surgery. could be a red flag. >> brad and lisa's brother-in-law, paul bryan, was stricken. what did they miss? >> all of the kids loved aunt lisa. she was just fun. >> lisa had seemed so together. she loved family events, loved having kids around. >> there was never a time that lisa did not want th

tom: i know jon and lisa have a ton of questions. is looking for a new marriott right where she lives. i am looking at your big impediment, which is the u.s. government. how big an impediment has the biden administration been in their reticence to open up as we improve in this terrible pandemic? anthony: while we lobby to the administration hard to get the borders open, yesterday was a big day for us, seeing international borders open. i have been traveling extensively internationally, and there is enormous pent-up demand from international travelers to come to the u.s., so i think today was a watershed day for the travel and tourism industry. jonathan: the demand is back bedtime. has been for most of this year -- back big time. has been for most of this year. getting the talent back on board, how difficult is it? anthony: it is improving. one in five of the jobs that were lost in this country during the pandemic were from the travel and tourism sector. the challenge for us is the most acute difficulties we are having are any markets

one saying we really move to a new regime. lisa: i was struck by the lack of reaction to fed vice chair richard clarida's comments of potentially accelerating a taper . that priced into markets, or are people just saying it is not going to happen and it is sort of the outlier hawkish view tipping the narrative? tom: everybody us sort of focused on tomorrow. i must admit, people are exhausted by the parlor game and missing the lead story, which is just hugely buoyant. equity markets on better than good corporate news. lisa: six record highs in 2021, the most going back to 1995. is this a mill top, or is this something fundamental that has shifted in the psyche of equity investors? kailey: jim paulsen remains relatively optimistic, and he said this isn't so much a sugar high as it is a fundamentals high. it is better corporate earnings shoring up the equity market. there may be concerned about the fourth wave in europe, and you're seeing that show up in the euro and affects channel -- and fx channel. lisa: taking a look at the euro,

i hope you had a nice thanksgiving with your family. lisa: you, too! th a lot of sunshine. it looks nice, the sun coming up officially at 7:02. 47 in oakland with 46 in san jose, 43 along the coast, and look at that beauty from santa cruz. low 70's today. open the north bay, we have some fog, santa rosa 41, fairfield and the low 40's as well as livermore, concord at 44. over in the east bay committed learner. -- over in the east bay, it is cooler. about 9:00, it is in the 50's for most of us. a lot of sunshine throughout the day. a few high clouds by the middle of the afternoon, but still temperatures continue to climb into the upper 60's to lower 70's today, so that is above average. we will keep that trend going into the first week of december. i will let you know in a few minutes, liz. liz: all right, lisa, thanks. there are growing concerns about a new coronavirus variants, eight african countries, including south africa. here is abc news reporter christina sloan with the latest. christina: scientists struggling to learn more about a new covid varia

lisa: a new york -- a "new york times" op-ed talking about inflation.what you are saying that perhaps some of the stimulus in the united states actually gave consumers the spending power to keep the dollar strong, to basically keep the currency underpinned by economic momentum at a time when under nathan's -- when other nations are not seeing that? jordan: the plan was for fx markets, all of that stimulus was debt induced, selective issuance from u.s. treasury. we saw massive dollar weakness last year. going into q4, euro-dollar really went higher. that was on the idea from all of the u.s. economists that the fed would not consider raising rates aggressively. that is changing. i think once you introduce rate hikes into the equation into the future pricing of the curve, that balanced payment i forgot to miss just fell through because investors see yield -- investors seek yield. with modern monetary theory, if you get taxes, if you get inflation, the way to do it is taxes. because of congress, the idea of big tax rises in the u.s. have really softened as

it is a mind-boggling move made. lisaention the fact that parents are doing a lot of calculations. the expectation is by the end of this week that the pediatric vaccine will be rolled out in the united states. how much of a game changer is this? dr. adalja: for children that are at high risk, it will make a major difference and for children are not high-risk, it is a great tool for them to not allow covid-19 to disrupt their lives. covid-19 tends to scare children from severe disease so having a vaccinated will allow them -- they are at high risk for quarantine, high for exposures. all of those protocols can get a little bit looser. especially when it comes to in person's cooling -- in person schooling. this is a safe vaccine. even if it is mild illness, why not prevent it because who wants their child to feel miserable for couple of days and there will be kids who benefit from prevention of severe disease. what we're trying to do is make over something that is much more manageable and this is a big step toward it. even i

a better way. tom: sales pitch. lisaes pitch is the idea of china being the exception and not the rule when it comes to emerging markets. you said you see opportunities when it comes to making money at a time when there is growing concern about the weakness in the home developer space. why is now a good time? is it because of likely easing by the people's bank of china? damian: it is the relaxation of credit and mortgage debt. policy banks are boosting lending to the sector. a lot of enterprises are pleating to beijing asking for better lending terms to acquire troubled property managers like abercrombie -- evergrande eight. that should support high-yield that is yielding 22% or 23%. that is where the real value play is. that is probably the point you want to play it. how much risk can you take in the sector given all the uncertainties? tom: is there an opportunity in eastern europe given the politics of the moment? can you play ruble? damian: ruble is tough after what we have seen in the last 24 hours with belarus and e

that decision a month away. lisa: this ties the hands of the ecb to talk about any purchasing or and dave thereupon purchasing early. the worst you get from a pandemic level the more the ecb has free laid -- free reign to wait longer. jonathan: the e in pepp is not over is the feeling. your equity market a little bit softer, bouncing off session lows on the s&p. lower one third of 1%. we talked about the bid in the bund market. lisa, your 10 year one g550 one. -- your 10 year 1.55. lisa: we heard fed officials are concerned about the broadening reach of inflation. we heard from raphael bostic who is bringing forward his expectation for the first rate hike to the middle of the year. today we get a host of additional fed speakers. chris waller as well as fit vice chair richard clarida. how much does he edify even what we heard from john williams yesterday, who said we are seeing broad-based inflationary pressures. it does hurt individuals, basically indicating his view adjusting attached. 12:00 we get the center for di

jonathan: only a month left of qe. lisa: signaling that is somebody and a market that is calling the fed and the bank of england's hands. tom: it is all about the margins, the marginal changes. the chairman yesterday in his own way gave a confidence that they can marginally change over time. jonathan: yesterday is what you wanted to be. read prices cannot move off the back of it. tom: look at the two year yield. there it is. jonathan: just below 50 basis points. here is the price action for you. we advance about 0.1%. i am laughing. i will tell you more about that later. euro-dollar negative. lisa, euro-dollar 1.1550. lisa: people basically choose their own adventure with the fed's message. we have the bank of england rate decision, as well as their bond purchasing plan. that messaging of both tightening and loosening at the same time is confusing. we are seeing 815 point basis point hike price in four that bank of england. initial jobless claims, productivity in september. the mixture of the lowest rate of jobless claims p

did we just put out a 25% gain for 2021, at least so far, so good. lisa: that was with a huge fiscal and monetary stimulus both firing in tandem. you have a changed environment heading into next year. you will have withdrawal of stimulus not only for the federal reserve, but globally on some level that you should think will affect the market in some meaningful way. jonathan: are you excited for fed speak later? lisa: i thinklisa: it will be a really interesting. they want to clarify. they will say uncertainty, that is what we are responding to. jonathan: is the post payroll fed speak dump. what does that payrolls report mean to them, and how do we balance out wages, which is starting to pick up alongside a participation rate that is going nowhere? matt: for me, the interesting thing about wages is a chart on the bloomberg terminal. i keep mentioning it. nobody in the controller wants to bring it up -- the control room wants to bring it up. but it is really interesting here that real wages continue to fall. we don't have wages keeping up with inflation, wh

we probably will be in a better place where a lot of harm reduction is in place. lisaay was a watershed moment with kids age five to 11 able to get the vaccine. i tried to schedule an appointment for my son. i could not. i tried many pharmacies. are we doing this rollout correctly given that we knew this moment would come? dr. adalja: this is a repeat with what happened with adults in december. this is something that should have been anticipated because we knew a third of parents were going to aggressively want their children vaccinated and all going to want it that day. this could have been better planned. it should have been easier. it took time for big pharmacy chains to get rolling. it is difficult. you have to look around. i had some of my friends call me for their children. i directed them to rural places where there may not be as much interest in the vaccine. it is doable, but it is an unforced error you could have predicted was going to happen here in the vaccine cannot be reformulated. you have to have vials with smaller doses and strangers. they could not jus

a new world. i'm romantic. you and lisa i am sure as a kid did this. i wanted to bring back the wooden escalators at herald square. jonathan: the narrow ones? did you fit into the? -- into them? tom: no i did not. it was a moment where we could feel british. wooden escalators from another time. jonathan: do they still have the met bergdorf's? tom: no they don't. jonathan: i thought they did. tom: no, they have a personal shopper that walks you around and every 15 minutes, your wallet. you know what they are doing at macy's? they are taking on digital. i mentioned -- they mentioned on the channel -- they mentioned omnichannel. jonathan: the shelves are stacked and we are seeing front loading going into the holiday season. lisa: if this is an advertisement for the experience of shopping, i don't know that it really hammered home, going up those wooden escalators. what i think is interesting is how much is going back to school, getting back into public and needing to wear something other than sweatpants, how much is that part of what is fueling the reopen

lisa: how big a difference one day makes. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." m lisa abramowicz, alongside kailey leinz and anna edwards in london. tom ferro, john keene -- john -- jon ferro, tom keene both off. what we are looking at this morning is a market in turmoil, reassessing all of the rate hike expectations, reassessing the reopening trade with the stay-at-home trades surging. everything else absolutely collapsing in the face of a new potential variant that could be more contagious. i am struck frankly by the shift in rate hike expectations at the federal reserve. kailey: a quick shift when we have been pulling over expectations of when the fed was going to lift off. we were looking at june of next year, now the market has pushed that further into 2022. it is a quick and stark reversal. i also have to wonder, it is just fresh off the thanksgiving holiday. a lot of people are probably off of work today. could this be a thinner liquidity kind of situation, or will we see elevated volumes? lisa: people are scrambling back to work. over in europe, this is t

we've got a problem 70% of america flat on their inflation back. lisa: the idea that you are seeing consumer confidence decline pretty dramatically as a result of the higher inflationary reads, this is why we get president biden coming out and banging the drum about the spr and releasing oil reserves to get down the price. we have been saying all morning, and this is a really important point, watch what they do, not what they say. we get the retail sales number tomorrow. you go to the store and you can get things because everybody wants them. you can get goods to the store shelves fast enough. this is not necessarily a recession like scenario. we are looking at a very robust demand picture. tom: with small caps higher, that was written everywhere. you got to stay with us because we are going to go from the markets to where does the president sit right now to jeffrey lacher's conversation, and all of them are looking at what small caps signal in inflation. small caps win. jonathan: the outlook for growth, 2021, 5.1% gdp. that is the median estimate. 2022

thanks it is a big deal. lisa is a massive deal because we were talking about when we get the new normal and it has to do with remedies to the coronavirus, not just inoculations. i think that is something without talk enough about. if we have effective remedies and cut the mortality rate, we can go back to normal and treated like any other cold. jonathan: pfizer is a big pharma company. this is not just an individual piece of technology. this is a market cap of $245 billion. tom: there's no question they have provided the leadership here and others have maybe stumbled along the way. i would look at where the markets are and i wonder how it is linked across this october to the declining death rate. we are down in the 1100 to 1200 vicinity across this nation. can you imagine the tone of the american economy if we go to 950 and breach 1000 deaths a day? jonathan: what it means for the bond market. global head of rates strategy at td securities. looking ahead to that conversation. six days of gains into friday. this i

it is not a bad day to do some of that tree scouting. lisa has a look ahead. he beach. temperatures are warming quickly. 61 degrees here in santa cruz, we saw low 70's yesterday. we do it again today. the ridge of high pressure is not going anywhere anytime soon. i will explain next. stephanie: cal needed to in the final two games to become bowl eligible. can the bears beat ucla to keep the hopes alive? we have the highlights coming up we have the highlights coming up in this holiday season, we want to enjoy the gift of being together. for peace of mind, take the first step in knowing. because it might just be a cold, but you want to be confident. the binaxnow covid-19 antigen self test has the same technology used by doctors and detects multiple variants. so in just 15 minutes, you can test, know, and go. available in stores and online. ♪ ♪ when you open a jar of better than bouillon you open-up dinner time to great flavor. mix it into a stir fry. better! sauté it into some veggies. better! or brush it onto a steak. way better with better than bouillon the pos

jonathan: euro-dollar with a $1.14 handle. -0.1%. lisa: how much will you see that continue in terms of the dollar strengthening the strongest versus its peers going back a year? today, the u.s. cash bond market is closed for veterans day, but i really and -- i really want to hone in on that auction yesterday. where the yields price, where these bonds sold, the yield was five basis points higher than where it was trading before this auction. there has not been such a significant mispricing going back to august 2011, when the united states was evolving. at 8:30 a.m., we can pick up on that as well as the wealth tax and a host of other issues. leon cooperman be joining us here on bloomberg television. at 11:15, president ad and at arlington cemetery about veterans day. i am wondering whether he talks at all about the cpi print yesterday. this is incredibly political. how does he reframe this? they were suddenly acknowledging inflation and trying to work with it in a new way rather than just say it is transitory. the mood has shifted, and so

jonathan: lisa, this is been a big task over the past several weeks. lisa: especially without a clear answer to whether or not is transitory and is highly challenged whether they can rise in tandem with consumer price. these are broader-based inflationary pressures and i think that will be the most interesting thing to see in the cpi report that comes out soon. jonathan: is the point you are trying to make if it is getting broader, not narrower? lisa: i'm just saying it is broader. i mean, this is the idea, that it is harder to fix something that is multifaceted and coming from many parts of the economy with a one issue button. tom: who says they can fix it? i don't see that in the history books. lisa: that is the issue, it is how quickly can it abat do toe supply-demand pressures concentrated versus a change in the economy? jonathan: this is the most contentious debate in global economics right now, you're going to have it through the morning. down about a quarter of 1%, no drama here. bond market yields are higher for five basis points. tom, you keep

[laughter] lisa: i thing it is a good point. she's going to do with us for the next few hours, so be nice. [laughter] tom: should i be shocked? lisa: forgive him. tom: coming up, mr. wilson of morgan stanley. if you are in global wall street , mike wilson is must listen, must watch. futures -14, dow futures negative 124. please stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in germany, olaf scholz is set to succeed angela merkel as chancellor. he will form an unprecedented alliance that aims to rebound europe's largest economy by tackling climate change and promoting digital technologies. centrist democrats will present their agreement with the greens and the free democrats today. in turkey, the plunge of the era threatens -- of the lira threatens to erode. demonstrators called for an end to economic mismanagement. meanwhile, the lira has bounced back slightly against the dollar today. a spacex rocket carrying a nasa probe has launched on a historic mission. the probe will test whether it i

let's start with a quick look at the weather. lisa: good morning. it's a nice start to the weekend. plenty of -- temperatures when you look at the golden gate bridge. you get an idea that we are on our way because we are starting out clear and temperatures are always -- already responding. p 39 fog so we are getting a little bit warmer already with our head start on the sun. though as we get into the afternoon, we will see temperatures well above average. we are talking 10 degrees from santa rosa to san jose. we've got a football game tonight and we will talk about the forecast for that. we'll talk about the summer as it begins midweek next week. liz: developing news this morning, two people were hurt after a shooting near a hot the near a high school football game. the gunshots sent panic through the stadium. severed -- high sc high sc plain for the championship. the game was at westmont high school when gunfire broke out just before 9:00 last my. one team had dropped to the ground -- last night. one team had dropped to the ground ball the other team ran for cover. police did find

a bit much. going to 3% is not in the cards anytime soon. lisa to finish where we began the show, with tom asking a good question. are we just following hysteria with respect to an asian with these 1970 -- two inflation with these 1970's comparisons? what is the consequence of the inflation we are seeing now? is it a longer-lasting higher inflationary environment or will we see growth materially slow and a bigger diversions between the haves and have-nots? michael: 1970's comparisons, i agree, are hysterical. the central banks around the world have learned the lessons of that period that did not happen overnight or one year, it happened over the course of the late 1960's into the 1970's. the bigger risk is the fed does get caught with inflation that is not transitory, that is persistent. i think they will do the right thing, which is tighten policy until growth slows enough to ring out the inflationary pressure. the risk is for whatever reason, it seems like anytime you slow the economy to a certain point, it is hard to slow the economy to the ri

and crude back with a 76 handle. lisa: this is significant. hought we were on the precipice of a huge change. on the airline stocks, we thought it would free up, people would begin to travel again. that is getting canceled, highly short-term. jonathan:jonathan: that is where the focus is on the united states, right now, speaker pelosi on the house floor. greg valliere joins us now. let's start right here. what we can achieve today in the house and how much longer it would take to achieve the same thing in the senate. greg: we will get it, probably today, in the house. but i will issue a fake out alert. even if the house passes it today, the senate will take weeks and weeks to resolve all of these issues -- state and local taxes, paid leave, electronic vehicles. joe manchin has issues with all of that stuff, but he really has an issue with inflation and things spending $2 trillion is not appropriate. jonathan: what did you learn of the last 24 hours? greg: i learned of the house has come together. i think that is important. but i've also learned

lisa abramowicz. jonathan: and we wait a little bit longer. from york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up four on the s&p, advancing zero point 1%. we keep waiting. tom: it is almost like waiting for a new yankees manager. we are waiting, and what is fascinating here, get out the calendar, you were right week ago. this is coming very late, and they are going to have to explain why that is. when we get the announcement, the explanation around it will be interesting. jonathan: looking forward to the announcement on the next chair. maybe it is this chair. one thing i can guarantee, more outlooks for the s&p 500. they point out profit growth is accounting for the entire profit growth. tom: we heard from credit suisse. a little bit of margin compression. the outlooks are fascinating. what i would say is i am really going to pay attention to the consistent bulls because they have been right for three

the big gap between expectation and actuality will produce a re-rating down. lisa: the amazing thing about this is the two options you gave are diametrically opposed. the economy is doing poorly, so we enter into a new recession. which is more likely? dan: obviously inflation is cyclical and the fed's response to inflation will be cyclical. you think the rate story will be opposed to the growth story but if you see what typically happens late in an inflation cycle, even as growth is starting to roll over, inflation tends to continue to rise. that is the rock and the hard place that the fed get placed in late in the cycle. do they try to support the economy while inflation pressures are building? you start to see the underlying growth start to fade. tom: one of the most important books done on this was by richard bernstein called navigate the noise. i want you to navigate off of richard's great book. how do you dovetail the use of cash right now with your caution? dan: that is a great point. the way i think about crash right -- cash right now is it is a huge opportu

have a great night. thank you. lisanfiltered there were no shortage of explicit moments in rittenhouse trial former federal prosecutor and defense attorney join me next to break down those shocking moments. i am totally blind. and non-24 can throw my days and nights out of sync, keeping me from the things i love to do. talk to your doctor, and call 844-214-2424. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who kn

a moment. for he 400 -- 4400 next year, that is the spread. lisawhat is currently priced into the valuations? is it a low interest rate story? is it the idea that margin pressures will continue to push through and we will not see the materialize? or are people looking at the likes of walmart, at the likes of target, as the beginning of something more, of being unable or unwilling to pass along all of the increased prices to consumers. jonathan: are you excited about the fed speak later? lisa: it is a barrage. tom: who is not speaking? jonathan: governor brainard and chairman powell. [laughter] maybe they are the ones you want to hear from. you're at we market unchanged on the s&p 500. good morning to you all. yields coming in about a basis points on tens. euro-dollar, $1.12 handle earlier on. it is not just the euro. i know it is idiosyncratic, so to speak, but dollar-lira, what a move we have seen. tom: yes, turkey is itself very contained, very controlled, and now down to hugely stressful domestic numbers. trade-weighted lira, what it does to gro

have a great night. thank you. lisaortage of explicit moments in rittenhouse trial former federal prosecutor and defense attorney join me next to break down those shocking moments. ♪day to night to morning,♪ ♪keep with me in the moment♪ ♪i'd let you had i known it, why don't you say so?♪ ♪didn't even notice,♪ ♪no punches left to roll with♪ ♪you got to keep me focused♪ with directv stream, i can get live tv and on demand... ♪no punches left to roll with♪ together. watch: serena williams... wonder woman. serena... wonder woman... serena... wonder woman... ♪ ♪ ace. advantage! you cannot be serious! ♪ ♪ get your tv together with the best of live and on demand. introducing directv stream. why hide your skin if dupixent has your moderate-to-severe eczema, or atopic dermatitis under control? hide our skin? not us. because dupixent targets a root cause of eczema, it helps heal your skin from within, keeping you one step ahead of it. and for kids ages 6 and up, that means clearer skin, and noticeably less itch. hide my skin? not

subtle shift on a key issue. lisawonder how much this indicates a lack of feeling that there is going to be consensus to avoid defaulting. otherwise, why make this subtle shift? jonathan: are we getting votes this week in d.c.? kailey: in theory, tomorrow, lawmakers would like to see votes. but putting that aside, when we think about the debt ceiling, december 3 is the deadline. we have a lot of recess for the house and senate in november. only 13 working days between now and that deadline. that is not a lot of time if you are going to push through reconciliation. your window is getting narrower. jonathan: can't you just cancel the break? kailey: one would think. lisa: -- jonathan: i am delivering some stark and am then going to pull back. a different experience in the next hour. lisa: i can imagine. the new jonathan ferro. jonathan: joining us now vice dean of the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. parents want to know when do we finally get guidance on whether they should vaccinate their kids? >> they

lisa: a late sunrise, 7:40 this morning. l be lighter, but we are looking at an early sunrise tomorrow night. a lot of clouds. we have a weak cold front to the north of us. it may bring a few sprinkles in the north bay. overall, it will keep us cool and allow for some filtered sun. parts of the eastbound and south bay later today. here is a look at live doppler 7. you can see the returns not amounting to anything right now. perhaps later on in the day and as we look at the sierra nevada, it is impacting the passes. 6500 feet, three to six inches of snow expected. winds up to 75 miles an hour. right now, they are over 40 miles an hour gusts. we are looking at highway 50, i-80, donner pass, certainly some impacts. a beautiful view of the clouds below and the high clouds. 55 downtown and oakland with 51 in san jose. 54 along the coast. looking at a few from our eastbound -- south bay, 47 santa rosa. 49 in napa. mid-50's in concord. tomorrow, 5:04. you can see the cloud cover here. it will hold the temperatures down and allow for

lisa: a company is producing meat in a way you haven't seen before. curry toured the new lab in emeryville and is the place of food production. >> gauges, meters, flashing lights, all futuristic at this lab in emeryville and all designed to make real meat. the main difference, they're not harvesting it from animals. >> we're trying to make the same product people have loved their entire live as different way. >> eric is trying new ways to create products we already eat and let us inside for a look at the new lab. the way it works, they take cells from animals and grow the meat here. >> we take a small sample of cells from a animal, muscle tissue, and bring it in the facility behind me and grow them and feed them like they would be fed in an animal and produce lots of muscle tissue from a small amount of cells and we feed it to other people. >> according to them the food looks like what we'd find in the grocery store. this is footage they provided from a recent cooking segment. this way food production is something scientists say they've been researchi

a referral. enrollment ends december 7th. take advantage now. call or go online today. lisase attorney johnna you know, johnna i'm not an attorney but this sort of looks like a malicious prosecution why are prosecutors able to bring these kinds of charming's on a flimsy case and how often does it happen in america? >> you know, it is interesting because prosecutors only need to have a certain amount of evidence in order to bring a case and the way it works out in real life normally when you're not a puppet for woke mob is that if the case starts to fall apart before trial then guess what prosecutor has the authority and the ability to dismiss chargeses dismiss cases and they're one who is really call shot even more so than judge. pre-trial -- and this case, obviously, this prosecutor was on a quest to convict that is not what our system is based on. that's not what it is suppose to be. you know when a jury comes back with a verdict they have two choices. one can be guilty other could be not guilty. if they come back with a guilty verdict it doesn't mean this is broken justic

a basis point. crude want to watch, down 1.4%. lisathis seems to be a gaining consensus among democrats that perhaps there should be some action. the one area that maybe there could be some direct intervention to bring down prices as the approval rating of the president declines on inflation concerns. today at 8:30 a.m., u.s. november manufacturing data is the first read on this month's manufacturing. a lot of people want to get a sense of how much we have to be concerned about supply chain disruptions and labor shortages accelerating rather than decelerating. today in about 45 minutes, we get xus fed president bill dudley joining us. then the former president of the richmond fed will be talking about inflation. we will be talking about the next fed chair. do want to point to this janet yellen quote from the weekend, basically saying jay powell has done a pretty good job, but what is important is that president biden chooses someone experienced and credible and that there are a range of candidates, not necessarily weighing on one or th

a round-trip. i am getting dizzy. lisaat in the volatility move index, which is risk to the highest since march 2020. oil prices come crashing downward, perhaps that rejigger's inflation expectations. anna: this doing a lot to reset things in the direction the white house wants to see, more than the action we saw earlier this week. oil prices down more than 5% on brent and wti, whether that impacts covid thinking. lisa: it is amazing to think we were talking about releasing oil from the petroleum reserve earlier this week, and now this is perhaps giving more of a lift to the biden administration's plan. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> the economy, many accounts, has fully round-tripped back to full capacity. >> the supply-demand balance has prevailed. >> i don't think the forces that lead to inflation or disappearing. >> the fed is going to have to make some hard decisions aced on data that is not perfect. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: how big a difference one day

a package, right? it is not just him. lisafact that that is the only guidance we are getting, and anonymous millie -- and anonymously sourced story, tells you how late we are, frankly. jonathan: we are waiting for a decision from this white house on the federal reserve porcelli of rbc is going to join us shortly. -- on the federal reserve. tom porcelli of rbc is going to join us shortly. this is bloomberg. ritika: oil is heading for its longest run of weekly losses since march. president biden is keeping investors guessing whether they will intervene to hold down prices that have heard consumers. the price of gasoline in the u.s. has had a seven-year high. the president is considering a number of moves, including the release of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. one of the messiest spats among democrats, the state and local tax deduction known as salt. democrats in high tax states want to expand it as part of president biden's economic plan. progressives are opposed. donald trump has got a court when to shield his presi

probably, but he will have to a knowledge that. lisai am curious to get a sense of the pain trade come with the biggest potential trade could be in a market where the bears are increasingly killed off and it seems like military policy -- like monetary policy is ruling the day. lisa: everybody coming into the fourth quarter was short the bond market come along value, shorting tech, and the pain trade is going long tech and yields not moving where the market was expecting simply because that terminal rate for the fed funds rate is going to be lower, and therefore yields won't get that high. the heavy lifting has been in the first quarter of 2021. we don't see another quarter like that again. jonathan: brilliant, as always. love catching up with you. ali -- alicia levine of bny mellon, thank you. it sounds painful for you, lisa, every time you asked that question. what is the pain trade? someone wrote in about avis and said maybe the pain is on the short side. a lot of that was behind that move yesterday. tom: we will see. i don't know. th

it is nice to have a warm saturday. lisa: weather is dominated by a dome of high pressure. stable air capping the atmosphere. the pavement is pretty saturated from the recent rains. quarter mile visibility from concord, santa rosa and napa but you look down through san rafael , it will take some time before we see some improvement. the peninsula is looking at better conditions. looking at 40's down towards danville. with that blanket of clouds, 50's elsewhere, the sun is coming up at 6:48. that gives us just over 10 hours of daylight. after that, noticeably cooler. there will be another one thursday. the fog quickly evaporates. we are left with a lot of sunshine through mid. day -- through midday. partly cloudy skies on monday. 72 in sunnyvale. san mateo, low 70's. pacifica, you are well up into the 60's. after the mid 40's this morning, rebounding to 75 in santa rosa. 71 this afternoon in oakland. most 70's arrive in concorde. the accuweather forecast is looking at plenty of sunshine. low 70's around the bay, mid 70's inland and a few degrees cooler for the second half of

on a more psychological basis, i wonder if inpatient stays for longer. lisa: the debate seems to be how many it will execute in the cycle. where do you fall in that? brian: i think there is actually a decent amount of uncertainty whether it is due to into 23. i think central banks want to go later. the second debate is right, 1%, 2%, or do we have to go back to was 3% or 4% which is more normal. we don't have evidence that we have to go to 3% or 4%, rate hikes still shallow and the economies are still fragile and we are not really looking at it. it is a question of timing and how quickly the fed will be forced to do it. i think they want to be slow. lisa: the fed has we had rated that tapering is unrelated to lift off, trying to divorce the two ideas. kailey: we had the idea of an accelerated taper circulating. if it ends quickly does that mean lift off will come sooner? brian: it is hard to separate the debate. the quicker you do it the sooner you are able to raise rates. i think we may see the fed become creative, figuring into the markets that ending taper