jonathan: tom, i thought we had a moment, 3, 2, 1, om, and then lisa abramowicz. [laughter] lisa: the one thing i am looking for in the theme, frankly, of the day, and all the data that is coming out, as how much of the delta variant has dampened the economic momentum, and that, i think, is going to be the theme. it does not necessarily mean a decline, but it is the pace of deceleration. jonathan: here's your equity market. the price action looks like this. we advance .33 percent to kick off things in the month of september. a new camp in the bond market. we are camping around $1.30. yields unchanged for the session, but we have had the shift higher, tom. tom: the value has been very range bound, jon, but it is a new place to become away from that 1.12. jonathan: tamping out around 1.30. tom: we have been doing the same thing. it has been rampant down quoting. people love it. jonathan: they love it. my apologies. i am back. tom: deviations out on the dow, are you ready? 37,500. jonathan: is that all? tom: that is the trend right now. higher, higher, higher. lisa: t

tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. i like that tradition. we should do that at bloomberg. an play baseball, tom. lisa: we would be so competitive. you know we would. the comfortable way to work out. -that looks fun actually. -it looks fun? it looks comfortable and fun. it looks like something i would put by the pool -or something. -looks like a paisley. -hey, a paisley, we'll take it. -yeah. oh my god, i could do this and watch tv at the same time. -exactly! how do you feel? -it feels good. feel my heart racing a little bit, ya know, gotta catch my breath a little bit, but it's good. oh yeah, i can definitely feel it. fantastic. oh yeah, i can do this. this is easy. yeah, that feels great and definitely better than the floor. treadmills, you've seen the bikes with clothes hanging on them, but people don't use it. what's the point? the aerotrainer, people want to use it. -wow, this is easy! -absolutely! it feels good. it feels sexy. i love this, aerotrainer, i want one. i like this. like, i can do this. i want this in my house. (host) wondering if the aerotrainer is tough? y

from new york city, good morning, alongside lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz, i am jonathan ferro. ur equity market shaping up as follows, totally unchanged. this is where the lift is. yields, treasuries. yields are higher by four basis points. lisa, yields are higher, a steeper curve. lisa: people thinking it has to do with the fed remaining on hold for longer that allows inflation to rise. i wonder at what point this becomes a concern for equity investors and other risk assets. jonathan: that is the theme this morning. another theme is in munich with matt miller. this is a day in the life of matt miller. i am not even sure we can call this work for you. good morning. matt: if you love your job, then you cannot call it work, jonathan. my first time back at an auto show since march of 2019. i am happy to be back in my element. but this show is less about cars and much more about tech than it has been before. i am talking with cristiano amon , the ceo of qualcomm. it is great to talk to you because all of the other ceos i have spoken to over the past two days have been focused on chi

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are -0.3% on the s&p. four days of losses on the cards. tom: i love that we had ben laidler optimistic. douglas cast watching. he's very cautious on the market. he looks for a market hurricane. jonathan: i don't know if the sarcasm translates or not over bloomberg radio. they have been really marginal moves into thursday. in about 45 minutes, the ecb joins in. tom: everybody is going to hang on every word of the press conference. you are expert on it. but the press conference may have some real value. she's got to change the dialogue in what way? jonathan: we should get some understanding about the pace of purchases. 30 minutes past the next hour, it is the news conference. at the start of the news conference, you will get some forecasts just in terms of what they do with their outlook for inflation. tom: we just heard from johns hopkins university. the pandemic is no different over there. she's got to be pandemic affected. jonathan: that is the story for the pandemic emerges the p

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market bouncing back again. we've seen this movie before. up to 12 on the s&p, advancing 0.3%. we've got to get things off this morning with another downside surprise out of china. tom: the news flow is extraordinary this morning. we are going to cram it into three hours of radio and television. i believe ferro will move it forward in clock hour. china is truly front and center. this is about tough economic data, and my litmus papers, the 30 year u.s. bond coming in nicely under 1.3%. jonathan: 2.5% against an estimate of 7%. tom: leland miller will say, can we trust the data? i think it is the trend of the data, and the trend is below 6% gdp, and that is a new china, never mind the overlay of everg rand and all of it. jonathan: we certainly taken some heat of this federal reserve going into next week. lisa: you are talking about cpi yesterday. i think one aspect that equity investors are focused on is the fact that ppi, prices of the inputs a lot of companies are using, a

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. prepare for wednesday. tom: i am going to listen to the weekend. it is my book of the year. we spoke to a professor. all of the debt that is out there, i am starting the book. jon: you are fired up. tom: jon they are doing an exclusive deal. i am fired up. jon: it really is operation get to the weekend. lisa: literally, we were just making our weekend plans. what is going to change right now? jon: you are taking the day off, clearly you do not think it is. the projections from the federal reserve. tom: what do you think? jon: we caught up with, he said all it would take would be a change in the probabilities. pretty much everyone is forecasting no change with the ecb. tom: i look at three moving average studies and when the three averages come to a point, that describes stasis. we are not there yet, jon, but give it a week or two. jon: it is the story of the bond market. good morning to you all. we will try to make it a little more exciting as the show progresses. yields pretty much w

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.six after yesterday's rally. we are down a little more than 0.1% on the s&p 500. it is about claims. it is about retail sales. tom: of course, all of this to the fed meeting and what it means for the stock market. if you are getting out of your

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. going into saturday, sunday, monday, tuesday, wednesday, said decision day. tom: stop at sunday. tottenham-chelsea is what i'm looking at. i will say tuesday, maybe the markets liven up. jon: and then straight onto november 3. 2/3 of economists surveyed expect that to be the time when the federal reserve makes that call. tom: before i get to andrew at a smart conversation, jon, is this about the lack of shift of service sector growth? is it about another thing? a third thing? a fourth thing? jon: all of the above. tom: imf the halfway line drowning. -- i am at the halfway line drowning. jon: people are pushing that to the back end of the year. that might give people a little more comfort to wait, just a bit more time. that is the view from a lot of people on the street. tom: what about commodities? jon: crude, energy prices. what is happening in the u.k. right now? the winds stopped blowing. tom: that is idiosyncratic. what i am paying for fancy pickles. jon: i am with you. we turned

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market bouncing back 29 on the s&p, up 0.7%. it is a bounce back. the nasdaq up 0.9%. tom: all we are talking about our winter they asked about is when are they going to raise just rates. there's a fair number of people saying you got it wrong. they are not going to raise rates in 2022. everybody calm down. jonathan: sabre malik of nuveen nailing -- saira malik of nuveen really nailing it. at the long end, i'm not sure. i think we are getting too far ahead of ourselves. we need to discuss that a little bit more. tom: the dynamics of the long end into the short end are important. the first thing i'll that when i walked in today was a yield -- first thing i looked at when i walked in today was the yield. i know michael dard is a big believera in it, the scope of the curve. it is not inflammatory yet. lisa: i don't really understand it either. i don't understand what is behind this move because we heard from fed chair jay powell, a little more hawkish, a little more of a time

jonathan: speaker hello c. -- speaker pelosi. -- a move of 10 basis points, lisa abramowicz, what did make after the flat that we saw on wednesday coming out of the fed and then on thursday that aggressive move higher. lisa: i thought it was interesting. this is a global bond market and it really is a synchronized tightening. this did not rattle risk markets. jonathan: equities with a risk. absolutely nailing this. she felt uncomfortable, we get a flattening of the decision, there would be a focus on the dot, and the following day she would be looking for a steeper curve through the next several weeks. why she things the focus would shift from dots to tapering, kaylee -- kailey leinz, she was dead on. kailey: she was. this is reflect in a stronger u.s. economy. i could argue the reason we did not see equities raised by higher yield is because equities and the bond market have been sending different signals. they have continually climbed, the bond market is more cautious and maybe those are more in line. i will note that the move higher in yields was not driven by breakevens but real y

tom: lisa abramowicz realizing the ecosystem of greek tourism when she went. beautiful. tom: now joining us is ian bremmer of eurasia group. the greece modern experiment is a success. what does greece do when there is another european crisis? how coalesced is europe right now? ian: much more so. in an environment where the americans and chinese are not talking to each other, the europeans are taking the lead on climate regulations. there are rules and regulations on privacy and data are the most advanced in the world and being taken up by other countries because there out in front. that is not to say their economies are performing incredibly well, but the lessons taken from the near-death experience of brexit and from the disaster that was brexit negotiations and has had a much bigger impact on the u.k. than the e.u. has helped to bring the eu together and the europeans ended up responding to covid in a much more coherent and cohesive way, both in terms of the vaccines as well as economic restructuring and rebuilding. all of that means they are in a better pos

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. equity futures down 37.s are higher by five basis points to 1.54%. crude is positive, stronger to $76.26. euro-dollar -0.1%. a cyclical twist to this market in the last several days. tom: i like that phrase. i think that is very accurate. nasdaq 1.54% of the negative as well. you wonder where it will settle. jon, 1.5 4% is unimaginable months ago. the bulls are sort of like, whatever. jonathan: i think price sets narrative. last monday, what were we talking about? we are staring down the barrel of $76 crude. tom: for all you that are not part of global wall street, this has been hugely anticipated, what will happen with global research at jp morgan. jonathan: not a surprise to most people, tom. tom: there it is, the ever-changing tone. making substantial further progress in washington is annmarie hordern. she joins us right now. it is tuesday. i guess thursday matters. maybe friday matters more. what is speaker pelosi's most important meeting this tuesday? annmarie: it's going to be meeting with the progress

good morning tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro.market up 22 on the s&p 500, advancing .5%. we pair the gains to this morning. let's get to the intraday picture. futures coming in just a little bit. we take a little dip, positive 24 but off of session highs off of the back of this story from the wall street journal. "china making preparations forever -- for evergrande 's demise." there looking to bail out the property developer asking local officials to prepare for a possible storm. this can a share the lead paragraph with our audience. chinese authorities ask local governments to prepare for the potential downfall of the evergrande group according to officials familiar with the discussion, signaling a reluctance to bail out the debt settled property developer while bracing for any economic social fallout from the company. that is the lead paragraph the mobile -- paragraph are from the wall street journal. two interest payments due on two bonds, one local currency, one dollar bond. we kind of dealt with the local currency issue yest

lisa abramowicz decided to skip a day -- skip fed day.esterday so much with the market down, she thought she would take today off with equity futures down. good morning, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: i am ritika gupta. new data shows a booster does of johnson & johnson booster shot provided 100% protection on severe disease to month after the first shot. the j&j vaccine is given in one shot does unlike the two shot inoculation of other vaccines. in canada, justin trudeau faces the prospect of another fragmented power meant -- parliament. his liberal party fell short of the majority he was seeking, meaning he will rely on more parties to do his left-leaning agenda. house are taking a risky showdown with republicans. it will include a suspension of the debt ceiling and spending bill needing to keep the government open past the end of the month. republicans have said they will not vote to raise the debt limit. all of this could be leading towards a government shutdown at the end of the month. fedex plans to raise its delivery rates by the mos

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.utures down six after yesterday's rally. we are down a little more than 0.1% on the s&p 500. it is about claims. it is about retail sales. tom: of course, all of this to the fed meeting and what it means for the stock market. if you are getting out of your car on bloomberg radio, stay in your car. if you are in the living room and going into the kitchen to get a glass of tang, don't, because anna han is coming up with the sharpest note wrapped around that economic data. it is the way they get there. they have the acuity that is really unique. jonathan: lisa, one of the big bulls on the street right now going into year end. lisa: everybody is sort of expecting maybe a little softness, and even the people who had previously been a little more bearish are getting more bullish. even the bears are buller bears then they were before. the narrative is not changing for people depending on the data. it is really just what your view is going forward. jonathan: tom is having a great time, lisa. h

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. a quick break. [laughter] futures down 12 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. the european central bank is deciding today whether the economy is strong enough to start slowing down stimulus. policymakers are due to settle on how much bond buying the economy will need in the fourth quarter. data points to an improving rebound in the u.n.. that despite the delta variant and supply chain problems. german prosecutors right at the finance and justice ministry today. an investigation into whether officials at an anti-money-laundering unit failed to handle cases correctly. the case is centered on warnings that banks warned the financial intelligence unit. in china, inflation levels at the factory level has seen a 10 year high. it rose 9.5% in august from a year earlier driven mainly by high prices were commodities come out put prices in the coal industry, up 57% from a year ago. the biden administration reportedly is trying to sue texas for the controversia

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.our equity market up four on the s&p, advancing 0.1%. the data 90 minutes away. tom: we are going to talk gold in this first block of the show. please stay with us on radio and tv. i've got to admit, this inflation is a different look on the screen. 5%-ish, that is a new level for america. jonathan: mohamed el-erian this morning, "deficient aggregate demand has given way to frustrating supply rigidities. they are not going away anytime soon." that is the conversation in the world of economics right now. tom: it is really important. he goes back to macroeconomics and the dynamics of demand and supply. everybody has an opinion on this. i'm technology to the rescue. we need to buy a new iphone. jonathan: or maybe two or three or four, or maybe five for christmas. i'm looking forward to how much you've got to spend a little later this year. on the policy front, we have to ask how much more of this can they tolerate before they have to turn around and say the message needs to change. lisa:

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance -- "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jon ferro. jonathan: it is ecb day. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. on the s&p, we are -0.2%. once again with my partner in crime, tom keene. welcome back. the ecb decision just around the corner. tom: i don't know if it is a big deal or if they will do anything. i have to admit, this is where lagarde gets tested at the press conference. does she want to be assertive? i have not observed that. jonathan: the risk today, a reduction in the pace of

lisa abramowicz and tom keene. i wonder if mr. n at goldman sachs, the idea of the politics behind the move. it is just a cfo change at goldman sachs. lisa: goldman sachs named dennis coleman as the new financial officer as of yet -- as of next year. as you said really well, basically banks are rethinking the way they look in the years to come. the pandemic was a tipping point for a technological shift and trying to bring up some of the younger banks in a way it had not been in the past. tom: mr. coleman very much associated with united kingdom as well. also associated with us is barry ritholtz, bloomberg opinion columnist. thank you so much for joining us. housing. we needed a dishwasher. the sump pump had been used in hurricane ida. i love homeownership. is it worth it? barry: you have to live somewhere and as someone who has lived in rentals and my own house, it is nice not to live in an off-white no change to any of the living circumstances. the old joke is no one watches a rented car. nobody improves a rented apartment. if you

lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz -- "bloomberg surveillance," stating the obvious. unchanged in the s&p 500, yields are higher by four basis points. that was my best tom keene impression. lisa: you are really filling the role. jonathan: from new york city, radio, and tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: there was a big jump to a record $294 billion. global demand from the u.s. and europe, retailers brought forward their christmas shopping. boris johnson long risk a major fight -- will risk a major fight with his conservative party to reform social care and is likely to confirm plans for a tax increase, despite lands not to do so. in germany, the national election is less than three weeks away and support for angela merkel's conservative bloc has fallen to a record low level of 19%. she is leading off and the bogus dog -- in the bundestag. u.s. attorney general merrick garland is promising to protect women in texas seeking abortion. one of the most restrictive laws in the nation as the supreme court declined to block the law, which bans abortion more than six weeks into a

tom keene with lisa abramowicz. i scheduled my booster for the middle of october. people, it is still about the unvaccinated. lisa: there are still kids ages seven and under who are knowledgeable -- you are not eligible. tom: tamika that istom: -- tom: to me, that is front and center. the youth of america, difficult to deal with. we are hoping to get vaccinated here at some point. we have a rare treat right now. lloyd minor is one of the most different physicians i know out there. he is someone with world-class, first-order research on the balance of the year. he has taken that over to medicine at johns hopkins, a residency at duke of here years ago, and holds court in palo alto right now. what is your biggest headache right now? >> i think the biggest concern is that we continue to takes care about 18,000 students on our campus, and that we comply with the federal mandate the biden administration has issued with regard to the vaccine mandate. tom: what is your strategy with your unvaccinated staff? lloyd: we have a highly vaccinated group, between 95% and 97%, wit

was that the man and my head or lisa abramowicz? what was that? s clearly been practicing. lisa: did you cough or say "go to cash"? every talking about 20,000 or 50,000 on the dow? [laughter] did we do it? jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: china's central bank says all cryptocurrency related transactions are illegal. it is the strongest move against the industry. the website indicates all cryptocurrencies including bitcoin are not fiat currency and cannot be circulated on the market. a statement says crypto related transactions including services provided by offshore companies the residents are listed. india plans to overhaul its military are gaining life. india's move comes as the u.s. and allies strength and allies strengthen defense cooperation against china. apple may have to redesign its iphones to use u.s. d.c. charging ports aimed at cutting waste for people with multiple devices. they want a single charging port for all mobile devices. -- teaming up in a european factory venture worth more than eight million dollars, to secure the price

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.up on monday to some risk aversion. on the. s&p, -1.3%. some payment data coming up today for some bank loans. yields come in on treasuries, down to 1.33%. down 2% and change on wti. through g10, some dollar strength out there. tom: i think it is right to watch euro, one dollar 17's and -- $1.1713. with us is annmarie hordern. we don't have a clue what is going to happen in washington this week. an open question. how is the debt ceiling linked to the migration from $3.5 trillion to a lower? annmarie: these are two separate things -- a lower statistic? annmarie: these are two separate things. the debt ceiling, what we are potentially going to get a vote on this week, these are actually two different plans we have to watch through congress. this is election of the debt ceiling and an appropriations bill to make sure we can keep the government open. that would only last until early december, and would also be a for the likes of afghanistan -- would also be aid for the likes of afghanistan

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. lisa back tomorrow. futures up 22 on the s&p. it's a little bit of a bounce back, but as we have seen a lot over the last week, the best of the day comes early in the day and then it gets faded. tom: on the worry and thanks about china. this 47 flavors of what to worry about with china. to me this morning it is simply the chinese growth engine, will it continue. jonathan: i'm watching and we will keep watching. tom: he is going to avoid being sent away. i think you will see a real domestic tinge as governor brainard listens to the press conference this morning. everything said, it's not just about evergrande. china is more than just one real estate transaction blown up. jonathan: we talked about the interest payments for june. we've heard about one and we said you gave me the kind of earlier. kailey: that offshore dollar bond is in question after they said they reached some kind o

i love how david rubenstein was channeling lisa abramowicz and he said i'm looking at yields. ssed that part of the interview. tom: lisa's looking at yields and the answer is rubenstein went to the inflation-adjusted yield, nominal yield, inflation up, ever greater, lower yields. this is not in the textbooks. lisa: it's not. why do you want to get negative real yields, it doesn't make any sense? yet, here we are. even as we see inflation with a sub -1% real yield on the 10 year, can this dynamic change when you have the bond purchases outstripping the entirety of what the u.s. government is selling? think of that for a second. tom: your kids can do it, negative german yields, minus growing inflation is a giant norm is yield. christine lagarde has the real german tenure well over standard deviation. that is a normal. what is normal? stay with us through the day. this is bloomberg. ♪ and there you have it— -woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow! -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just $30 bucks. sweet, but mine has 5g included. relax people, my wireless is c

with john keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, as we get to the week. everybody is working for the weekend, and the theme i have noticed in the last five days is the underestimation of the american consumer. jonathan: is it wednesday yet? we are wondering what comes next, and i think it grips everyone, what is next in the cycle, in this market? can we get that second run of the cyclical stocks? tom: michael mckee of bloomberg, i am sorry the american sumer reported this week constructively. jonathan: i mentioned this a couple of times, that against the u.s. consumer at your peril. big downside surprise over in china and upside surprise in the united states, what do they have in common? we are starting to get a read. in september, struggling to gauge whether -- where the economy is at any given data point. tom: you and i see it here in new york, i assume it is across the nation, rents higher. lisa: if you look at any other survey, you are talking about 10%, 15% increases in rent in various cities across the nation. i think this says the american consumer

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market bouncing back 29 on the s&p, up 0.7%. it is a bounce back. the nasdaq up 0.9%. tom: all we are talking about our r

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. tom: an extraordinary monday. we need to dive into the data check. forget about the theory of contagion, the 30 year bond plunges sharply down to 1.8431. jonathan: futures coming at -32. you have to start the morning off with china. tom: it is a contagion from ever grant and shenzhen. we talked about watching beijing. jonathan: interest you on bank loans, interest on dollar bonds due thursday. so far until today, it was incredibly concise property developers out of china. see that in the hong kong session today. does that start to spread? what does the contagion look like? tom: the real yield at negative 1.3%. lisa, idiosyncratic does not work this morning, does it? lisa: how much will this have a real economic effect? the idea that this goes beyond a financial pickup that people can overwhelm with cash. the fact that you are seeing the flattening yield curve in the u.s., there seems to be a bleed over into slower growth and inflation for the path ahead. what does that mean for the fe

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.arket up four on the s&p, advancing 0.1%. the data 90 minutes away. tom: we are going to talk gold in this first block of the show.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equity markets fading a bit, up six on the s&p, up a little more than 1/10 of 1%. the downside surprise in china. tom: confirming that if you got it right and everybody else a little too optimistic. i thought bill lee was lights out in the last hour, really framing all of china and what it means for us. we looked at inflation yesterday, look at retail sales tomorrow. jonathan: there is a belief that altogether it takes the heat off. the federal reserve, what are you looking for? tom: you and i and lisa saw it yesterday, yields went up a little bit and then look what they did. we were having one of our power breakfasts. jonathan: spiked coffee at 10:30. tom: the guinness was good. you noticed 1.20 eight, now on the way to 1.26. jonathan: 1.2718. lisa: i don't understand what the implication is because if the fed were going to hold off on their taper plan, that meant higher long-term yields allowing inflation to increase. there's something else i don't understand. jonathan: hasn't that

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.obless claims and retail sales 12 minutes away. yields higher. with quality basis point. euro is weaker. euro-dollar, 1.1760. tom: in 12 minutes, this is important for all on global wall street. jonathan: then we will hear from the president at 1:45 eastern time. delivering remarks on leveling the playing field in our economy. tom: i have learned that submarines matter for a lot of reasons. one of them as they are really expensive to build. terry joins us. we are thrilled for you to join us after this agreement. we have the idea of the u.s. washington, london and -- joining together for subs. this is about general dynamics. my re--- my reading is they will be built in australia. how do you perceive u.s. sub burning technology will be built in queensland where the navy sits? >> that's a good question. i will not pretend to be totally familiar with australia's boatbuilding capabilities. they've got some. that was one of the first things i thought of which was they are talking about build

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. end of the quarter. on radio, on television, a one-hour briefing here on the step forward for q4. we've got a set of guests to give us the clarity on what i don't know of the next 90 days. jonathan: looking forward to catching up with geoff yu from bny mellon. with this fx market putting up some big numbers now, euro-dollar a breakdown for the dollar. -- a breakout for the dollar. tom: it is a litmus paper for the global system. we can look at this pair, that pair. we will do that any moment. but how does that you over -- how does that move over to a stock market that has cratered? it is an annual yield over 90 days of 7.4%. i thought that is what we were supposed to do. jonathan: it is the sixth straight quarterly gain on the s&p. we are doing ok. but let's be clear, q4 could really be choppy. we got some issues to resolve, washington being one of them. the federal reserve another. we got to get through earnings season. tom: one of the best things about t

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.we march towards the opening bell one hour and 12 minutes away, equities are softer. we are down 0.75% on the s&p 500. the nasdaq 100, negative one .5%. that is where the underperformance is off the back of this move in treasury yields. we are higher by four or five basis points to 1.53 49 percent. crude through $76. brent through $40, 1% -- through $80, 1% higher in the oil market. tom: $79 $.95 on brent. dan clifton always writes with a sense of american political history. his latest note is simply a jewel. he is the strategas head of policy research. i love what you say about 12, 13 years ago, and in november a decade ago, that party collapse. how do you bring that forward to the democrats of 20 tony one? -- of 2021? dan: thank you for having it. -- for having me. we call this field of dreams week. as you know, the progressive democrats have been pushing for ironclad commitment on a 3.5 trillion dollars spending package, and if they get that, they would agree to an infrastructure pa

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.onathan: what a week. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your market advancing 0.5%. we are taking a couple of things very well, the federal reserve and the story out of china. tom: you've got the moonshot of the norwegian thing, the bank of england moments ago. turkey with a bombshell, and the lira weakening dramatically. all of these distractions around the central banker to the world, and what he said yesterday is we've got to plan, and markets said no. jonathan: and we just got a surprise rate cut, 100 basis points over in turkey. this chairman has no interest whatsoever in taking anyone by surprise. tom: exactly. jonathan: that was handholding through to tapering in november. tom: you should tune in on our breaks. it is really interesting. on radio and tv, jon mentioned brazil which is really important. there's only one book that matters,

lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. tom: if i take the second one on my knees, does that work? ?han: it is payrolls friday. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the race to secede japan's prime minister is seen as wide open, saying he would resign after failing to control the coronavirus search. whoever becomes the next leader of the party is assured of becoming prime minister because the party's dominance in parliament. it is a tax settlement that is one of the biggest in -- the bill in their founder of renaissance technologies and his colleagues will pay billions in back taxes to resolve the case. senate investigations peg the amount at a minimum of 6.8 billion dollars. new york and new jersey learned that the older norms of wealth no longer apply. the remnants of hurricane ida killed more people in the northeast then it did on the gulf coast. european union and astrazeneca have ended months of bitter supplies for vexing suppressed. they fell behind the u.k. this year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloombergquint take, powered by more than 2700 bloomberg analysts and journalists.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 17 on the s&p, up 0.4%. we are on course for six straight quarters of gains. tom: it's been choppy. what i would note, even with the equity recovery of the last number of days, the vix still near a 22 level. there is still that choppy tension as we go towards the new quarter. jonathan: euro-dollar, a break of $1.16. the weakest euro we have seen going back to july 2020. strongest dollar we have seen all year. what underpins that move? tom: i'm going to suggest i don't know. finally, what is underlining this quarter is how quiet this has been. jonathan: how well anchored is this move? how durable will it be? lisa: i'm going to provide a potential narrative at my absolute peril. i think it is fascinating to see you move up the stronger dollar, higher yields in the 10 year, and weaker equity performance . how much is this a quantitative easing unwind trade? this to me as one of the questions as we watch real yields rise to the highest since june. jonathan: equities

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 27, bouncing back 0.6%. it week for economic data, cpi and retail sales. it's president biden versus president manchin. tom: that is major reporting this morning on the treatment of taxes. as greg valliere says, let the healing begin. that is really the hallmark of what we are going to see in washington. they are back. they've got a schedule. they've got to deal with. jonathan: then we got to get through cpi tomorrow morning. we've got to get through retail sales. then it is onto next week and the fed decision. tom: but what is really onward, and i said this for months, the guesstimate of gdp and how slowly we are coming down from that boom economy, and also how corporations will adapt to it. to me, it has been a resilient market as we meditate about this drawdown. jonathan: we've been meditating for a while, haven't we? you are offering to therapy -- offering therapy to people experiencing a five day drawdown. here we are, i bounce back of 0.6% on the s&p. can a

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.hat a morning. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. you equity market lower, down by 0.9%. yields breaking out in the last week. tom: it's deteriorating in the last hour as well. the dynamic of the last 60

lisa abramowicz and tom keene on a historic day for new york city. not waste time with the statistics, but to be very serious, eight deaths reported by the new york times. historic rain. with that note we get to the chief executive officer of the mta. where is your biggest headache at this time? >> the subway system is coming back. it is extremely resilient. we have operating service in most areas of the city. we are putting humpty dumpty back together. bravo to the crews that worked throughout the night to do it. there is a key area where the pumping is still going on for us to restore service to that important line. we think by midafternoon we will have most of the lines back to full functioning for an evening commute. that is exciting. tom: you're telling me we will see an evening commute? janno: a lot of people elected to work remotely or stay at home today, so a little lighter than usual. we will move people on the subways and on the bus system, which performed heroically. great bus drivers rescued people. p meter railroads are little spotty. me

kailey leinz is in for lisa abramowicz. we said good morning to all. this is about what will be set at the press conference, or will it be about what will be left? jonathan: we won't hear anything on china, i think it's too early to drop illusions. we won't hear much on the history of the future. we will hear questions on what has been happening with the federal reserve and fed precedents -- presidents, and investment decisions. as you pointed out, it will be difficult for this chairman to say anything substantial today before we get through the process of working out what's gone wrong. tom: not only in policy investment, but on our fiscal policy. what is so different from the last fed meeting is that we have dovetailed into a president with plunging poll ratings and a president with a true fiscal mess on his hand. jonathan: do we get 2.5 trillion? tom: we have to be below that. jonathan: it's hard to come up with a forecast, the range of outcomes is wide. what does that mean for policy? they could say we are outcome based. we could pay you the range o

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.onathan: this week is just getting started. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. in greenwich, connecticut, tom keene standing by with a fantastic lineup of guests through the next hour. tom: we knew the greenwich economic forum would be important. ray dalio later to speak to governor lamont of connecticut. jonathan: let's not waste any time. shaping up as follows on the s&p, advancing 0.75%. yesterday, the biggest one-day all the way back to may. crude positive by 1% to $71. bank of america, those forecasts for chinese growth, that caught my eye. i know it cut yours. kailey: there's a multitude of factors here, not just the potential default of evergrande. the fact that commodity production is going to be lower, as well as the delta variant. how strict china has been with some of its restrictions when you see resurgence in cases, that sits china apart from what we are seeing in other developed countries.

from new york city, on radio, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro.tsche bank center it is. no one will know where you made. tom: it looks good on radio. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. congressional democrats are at an impasse. they have hit a wall in an attempt to do with three crucial issues at once. avert a government shutdown, prevent a debt default come and move forward on president biden's for trillion dollar agenda. republicans are blocking an attempt to raise the debt ceiling -- north korea said its latest rocket launch was a successful test of a hypersonic missile. that suggests kim jong-un's regime has come closer at putting nuclear warheads and high-speed gliders that can evade u.s. missile defenses. it was difficult for experts to verify the claim. france has warned the u.k. is in violation of the brexit deal. france says britain denied several small european sheen boat access to its territorial what it's -- small european fishing boats. france attempted to prevent u.k. financial doing busi

tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg. with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the state of louisiana is facing another storm and potential flash floods two weeks after being battered by hurricane ida. state of emergency has been declared because of tropical storm nicholas, which formed in the gulf of mexico. nicholas has triggered a storm surge. heavy rainfall and multiple flash floods expected in louisiana through the middle of the week. joe manchin is casting doubt on the timeline for president biden's economic agenda through congress. the west virginia democrat suggests a late september target for a house vote is unrealistic. mansion -- joe manchin's boat is crucial on the evenly split senate. president biden will announce his next steps to boost the global vaccine supply before the yuan general assembly begins next week. according to the surgeon general, the u.s. pledged more than one million vaccine doses by the middle of next year. billions of doses will be needed to curb the pandemic. the crisis involving china

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ty market up 27, bouncing back 0.6%. it week for economic data

[laughter] jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. from new york city on radio tv, equities are up. we cover the markets, sometimes. yields are higher by a basis point. tom: what's a small caps? lisa: jonathan: -- jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> a term when many women don't even know they are pregnant, the supreme court could acted today, though there is no firm deadline. opec and allies meet today to provide halted oil production with another increase in output in october with prices that have mover -- mostly overcome mid-august but the lookout for the rest of the year is relatively complacent. mailchimp has been approaching an email marketing firm for millions, their biggest acquisition ever. global news 24 hours per day -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we will follow and monitor the new rulers in kabul and also make it clear that the nato allies have the capability to strike from

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an interesting day. lagarde in this hour with her comments on paper, non-taper -- on taper, non-taper, and the rest of it. what matters to me is we heard in the opening there, the guests are the quality of what we do at "bloomberg surveillance." ben laidler outlines the fundamentals of the market, and savita subramanian is focused on the bond market. jonathan: it's an upgrade from 3800, but nowhere near some of the price targets out there. into next year, we've heard calls of 5k. so vita -- savita looking for 4600. look at the labor market. i can give you some data that shows you this labor market is tight. i can give you some data that shows this labor market is loose. that debate is going nowhere anytime soon. tom: the distinction on ecb is simple. u.s., maximum stimulus. ecb, far less stimulus. jonathan: capital economics, their line came out a couple of minutes ago that sums up things perfectly. the ecb slows purchases, but will keep policy ultra-loose

lisa abramowicz this morning called it a market of faith, and that is what people are having to do. putting some faith we will get through the bumps right now, get better in the fourth quarter, and build from there. jonathan: what do you have faith in, what kind of outcome? capturing this conversation perfectly is job openings in america. 11 million, job openings are skyhigh in america. three options here. either supply issues fade and payrolls surge. then we start to meet that demand. or supply issues persist and we just go up aggressively. there is a third option, that perhaps this demand is time sensitive, and demand itself starts to fade. which one is the outcome that you have confidence in going into 2022? krishna: i think the supply materializes and the demand remains. the ethan harris option -- that is a very realistic option. most importantly, whether it is realistic or not, that is the option the fed believes in. this market is entirely fed dependent. it is not about whether you should have faith in anybody else other than the fed. whatever they think is what will eventuall

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a week we have had of you. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance, live. we are down 1.4%. the bond market -- it is all about ever grand. tom: it is all about ever grand. everybody is in the pool today. instantly halfway from 20 or so. jonathan: the chairman picked up the mic and said i will be gone until november, jumped the mic and then walked away. tom: you nailed this last week. two meetings beyond this. jonathan: why would you make a decision this wednesday? lisa: there is a question of inflation weighing on sentiment. consumers are pushing up the expectations and how that affects reality. these are some of the concerns that they have to address. evolution because there is not necessarily any need. he said evolution. what was i supposed to say? jonathan: 1.4%. let's whip through this section. the hang seng getting absolutely battered. the markets are hurting. down by 2.3% there. on the cusp of breaking. lisa: we could trying to get excited about that. the nar

. >> bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance alongside lisa abramowitz. the equity market is down 23. live on tv and radio, putting itself together as the week progresses. lisa: it's the idea we are getting some inflection. why is there suddenly conviction reflation. jonathan: yields were lower wednesday and aggressively higher on thursday. kailey: we were talking about how any back of central banks would be bad for risk assets. jonathan: the good news is the chairman of the federal reserve held everyone's hand and guided them toward the decision and they recognized what will happen in november. lisa: which they said they were ready to do. he gave the market plenty of notice and going into that fed decision, everyone expected the fed was going to do exactly what it did. jonathan: just a note on this, the chinese saying it's illegal to trade crypto so is this a broader part of the crypto story? lisa: this all goes to this question of how they contai

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. r our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. lisa back tomorrow. futures up 22 on the s&p. it's a little bit of a bounce back, but as we have seen a lot over the last week, the best of the day cos