alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down three quarters of 1% on the s&p. the main event is in taiwan. tom: it is. we will get to the markets. in my right, mike is with us later? jonathan: in a few hours time. tom: right now it is about nancy pelosi and the history being made in taiwan. absolutely stunning. i am not sure that the chinese quite see it that way this morning. tom: i would say not. there is a lot of reading to be had about what is different, but what it does come down to is the ability to make a mistake. when i talked to military experts, something like bloomberg in that regard. jonathan: we make a ton of mistakes on a daily basis. a visit we all anticipate in the next couple of hours. lisa: and everyone is trying to figure out what the response could potentially be. this is risk off, a pretty significant market ramification that leaves you with a 10 year yield going into that to 5% and projecting further. how much are people perhaps looking past some of the longer-term implications of the share bet

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom king, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance for our audience worldwide live on bloomberg television and radio, tom keene, jon ferro, jonathan out. we are lucky to have kailey leinz here. my take away from this week is how important gasoline prices have been to everything underpinning a lot of the rally we have seen in bonds and stocks. tom: can't be said enough. it is about a gallon a gas. paul sweeney has been good about this on "bloomberg surveillance" and radio. it can never be said enough. it seems old, seems dated, we are biased on the island of manhattan. we are wrong, it matters. lisa: it matters from every point of view not only because it allows people to have more discretionary spending because they're not putting toward the pump but also it affects things like university of michigan sentiment survey that we will be getting at 10:00 a.m. it will affect the imprudence -- the inputs. what are you watching for the pivot point to understand whether this rally israel? tom:

lisa abramowicz. lisa: yesterday we talked about the 10 year option and it was dramatic and part of the pivot of markets with yields higher and stocks lower. we will get to that later in the show. 10:00 we are watching the university of michigan survey. the headline number could rebound from incredible march downward, how much is being driven by oil prices and how much is that reflected in the five to 10 year forecast of inflation put out as part of this survey? if jon ferro were here he would say how any people delay survey, why have i never been surveyed, and we would question if this is just a signal. 12:00 usda world agricultural supply demand report will be fascinating at a time we just saw food prices surge the most since 1979. that was one of the biggest takeaways from the cpi report. what are the supplies going to look like? this goes to the weather disruptions we have seen in europe, but also in the united states, this has been try and how much does that creep production of wheat and soybeans.

we can see that this morning with lisa abramowicz. it doesn't confirm the gloom, and he is right when it comes to companies that have reported earnings so far. pinterest and uber, their shares are down or than 40% so far ahead of today's trading session. both shares popping dramatically. pinterest reported earnings after the bell. those shares of nearly 20%. elliott management taking a majority stake, but also the resilience of their user base, which is majorly female and is down 5% on the year, but still a lot more robust than people expected. uber, better than expected earnings when they are facing off with ridesharing, inflation, amid the inflationary inputs, shares up 11% ahead of the open. not doing hot, jetblue down 3.4% on the heels of demand being very strong, capacity not meeting that. not seeing capacity coming up as much as people want. it's interesting the share prices coming down so much even though people are still paying more, and more than people expected for the airline tickets. we have been covering this, but the oil

we do the briefing with lisa abramowicz. lisa: thank you.underrated economic data point of the week is this one at 8:30 a.m., the productivity for the second quarter. it is a measure of how effective people are in their jobs so you are seeing people are getting paid more because of inflation but producing less for a variety of reasons. we saw that last quarter and the expectation is to see it again. typically that means that later on there will be job phrases and layoffs as companies try to trim costs because of the lack of productivity. that comes ahead of ppi tomorrow, thursday and university of michigan consumer sentiment friday. it will be interesting to see the discussion from the semiconductor chief executive officers, president biden with chips buying back in 2022, we do have the ceo of nikon coming to speak to us after the fourth quarter earnings. how much can we bring online to curtail additional disruptions? i want to hear the mix of what kind of chips they are making and what it -- where the says. we've had about 90% of s&p compan

tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. it is jobs day in america. important report in 29 minutes. wages, wages, wages. that is what matters this morning. jonathan: today is payrolls, next week is cpi. that should set us up for the meeting in september. you will get another payrolls and cpi report that, too. tom: no forward guidance into this report. that data is there at 8:30 and the fed will have to adjust. curve inversion of 37 basis points. jonathan: the fed has pushed back in a way that we thought they would. yields have responded on the front end by 17 basis on the two-year. equity markets kept on rounding. we have ripped off that market low. close to 20% higher from june 16 on the nasdaq. tom: it does for to into the fixed income space. frankly, that has been as dynamic as equities. lisa: shockingly dynamic, considering this is the deepest market in the world, particularly at the front end, as more people are confident that the federal will come through with their rate hikes. the reaction in markets to a good print. if you see concert which gr

tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. heard on radio, seen on tv.s is bloomberg surveillance. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. china is lashing out at the u has for nancy pelosi's trip to taiwan this week. they shot announce it is imposing unspecified sanctions on pelosi and her family. this morning, china's ambassador to the u.s. was summoned to the white house. andrew bailey is rejecting criticism that the central bank acted too slowly on inflation. the boe recommended central banks to raise central rights but has fallen behind the u.s. federal reserve and the pace of those increases. u.s. health officials have to clear the monkeypox a public health emergency. that will clear up resources at other things to fight the virus. south korea has become the seventh nation to send a spacecraft to the moon. it sent its lunar orbiter, lifting off from cape canaveral on top of a spacex falcon nine rocket. meta platforms --one of the few s&p 500 companies without debt. meta just posted its

tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. jobs report tomorrow. all eyes on the united kingdom. history made this morning as governor bailey speaks now. jonathan: what a moment to see a central bank forecasting a recession that starts in 4q and goes through the whole of next year together with 13% inflation. that is a pretty original moment. tom: i go back to 1995, john major is prime minister, coming off of the 1992 chaos. that is when arsenal acquired bergkamp. it harkens back -- seriously -- it harkens back to the early 1990's certainty. jonathan: i would go further. this is the biggest rate hike of the central bank since it became independent. people forget, 1990's. the last 10 years we were talking about this independent central bank story. that has changed over the last several years, and there is political pressure building on the bank of england and the federal reserve. tom: the governors saying, not for the independent bank of england to get involved in leadership election. maloney. -- baloney. they did this morning.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. back together after a lengthy holiday. so much going on. all of it in the jobs report. chairman powell is looking at the labor economy. jonathan: payrolls looking for something like $250,000. a dovish interpretation of what he said last wednesday got a lot of pushback. neel kashkari going into the weekend clear we have more work to do. tom: sodas apple computer. five or six or seven stories on an interesting monday. apple computer with free cash flow model for next year of $110 billion. they are broken need to issue more debt. jonathan: not quite. offering to fund more buybacks and dividends. they usually time it quickly. spreads have tightened a lot over the last month. let's be clear about that. this august i wonder what it will bring for this credit market. tom: lisa, what do you see? lisa: i see people do not understand the rally we have seen. we see companies starting to come back to the market after more deals have been pulled from this market. companies that

with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ures are positive, up .5 on the s&p 500, and nasdaq. yields creeping higher by two basis points, stronger euro. euro-dollar, and a look out below, crude down about .4, 94 dollars. the opec-plus meeting, tom, rhett vienna, starting at about 11 minutes time. tom: i know, and it will be 12 minutes long. there will be four minute coverage. jonathan: i joke about it, but whenever we speak to them, i find it infuriating. given what is going on in the global economy, the energy crisis hits so many parts of the world, and they get together and have a escutcheon that last 15 minutes? tom: they have the same pr people as i have. jonathan:jonathan: i think it is ridiculous. tom: we will continue to monitor that seriously, and again, our team just doing a great job covering these dynamics. right now, annmarie hordern joins us. speaker pelosi after tokyo will fly back, and perhaps will have to do a fly around kansas. extraordinary election results last night. and what it is about is what put aydin

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. futures positive.s high yesterday by 18 basis points on a two-year. everyone lying up -- lining up to say this and then the markets responded like they were surprised. if you like the fed speak, you get more of it today. harker, daily, that is your lineup for today. tom: we have to stop here. i thought forward guidance was dead. we did we get that memo -- didn't we get that memo? jonathan: just reestablish the reaction function. based on what happened with markets over the last week, easing of financial conditions, we had guest after guest saying this is an unprecedented easing of conditions. this tweet, speaker pelosi has left taiwan. this is what they have to say. it is fair to assume that the charters of china -- have gone considerably lower. he goes on to say without china you don't have india and without either, you don't have any emerging nation. some people might go on to say without any of that, you don't have an oil price cap on russia. tom: as we mentioned with annmarie hordern, she saw the w

i'm tom keene -- with tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro.daq back more than 1%. 2.8% on crude, yields coming back and you can turn a last couple of sessions upside down. yields are lower now, just a reminder in about 42 minutes you will get cpi, a few of us going into the euro a little stronger. .4% on two dollar. jonathan: the german two-year -- jonathan: that was the prospect of the euro intervening in the energy market and he sent they are prepared to consider the moment the market moves against germany. tom: if it is every nation for itself, as you could toward november, but january to february, it will be remarkable. you continue the american discussion, with emily wilkins of bloomberg government. we do this with patrick leahy who visited us yesterday. it was shocking to see patrick leahy hearken back to skip jackson and hhh of minnesota and say the liberals have to have a dialogue with the conservatives. emily: in some regards, yes. something has happened in capitol hill since january 6. it only seems like things are getting worse. it

lisa abramowicz with us today. dow futures up 74. do this right now, curb inversion, there is a number on the bloomberg terminal, -48 basis points. lisa: we are bumping up against history. does this mean bad things will happen in the economy? you get really unclear answers from people about whether there is depth of the inversion and any correlation to the depth of the potential downturn. tom: ambiguity. maybe we see that in currency markets as well. on these inflation reports in particular with the expertise of the dollar, mark timing -- truly legendary in the astrology if you will of piecing all of this together. mark chandler, what is sustained high inflation do to the astronomy of the market? mark: it's not just the u.s. of course that has high inflation of the world is going through it now. i think to your point about the importance of cpi number, i am not so sure it will change anything. after the strong labor data we had for the weekend, of the market pricing in an 80% stance of a 75% -- 75 basis point hike. tom: is the dollar

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: looking you had retail earnings in america. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. futures down about .1%. walmart and home depot coming right up. tom: home depot is incredibly important. joe feldman reaffirmed a stunning call of strength at home depot with margin expansion. that is the kind of optimism that speaks to a resilient market. the equity market performance yesterday was critical. lisa: in the face of week -- jonathan: in the face of week data we squeeze out a day of gains. lisa: home depot reporting sales that beat expectations, $43.9 billion, and earnings-per-share beating on the headline figure. how much does this climb to push away the fear of a worst-case scenario, especially in the housing industry that has been beaten up so much? how much does this give faith you can get resurgence in consumer spending with lower gasoline prices? jonathan: the big headline is reaffirming the outlook. we have seen retailer after retailer struggle to do just that. tha

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. just stocks, it is bonds, currencies, oil, they move. jonathan: the dollar is the strongest going on the way back to 2002. the two year yield the highest since 2007. we i taking out the 2014 highs. two basis points away from having a little look at 350. tom: what is interesting is the calendar, we have got to get out. out is not to next jerome powell press conference, it is to september 8, because europe matters to america. jonathan: the ecb, they have one priority, to get inflation down and they are willing to tolerate is low down in the economy. how much are they willing to tolerate that? i think they wanted to communicate their hurdle, the pause, it is a lot higher than you think it is. tom: 1939, 1912, whatever. how do you raise rates into a war? jonathan: how do you raise rates into a recession? tom: lisa, what did you read about this weekend that matters to you after jackson hole? lisa: the discrepancy is people who believe the economy can withstand a 4% interest rate for a long

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jon: the week is dragging out. first thing lisa said to me, taken ages just to get the friday. from new york city this morning, good morning. tower audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. futures down .1%. three days of losses into wednesday head of jackson hole. tom: it's a finely a quieter market here -- it is finally a quieter market here. there's a lot going on. to meet a headline is netherlands natural gas is not giving it up. to me that is a headline this morning. jon: did we get the appetizer for the next headline for nero kashkari of the minneapolis fed. he spoke. he said we are at high inflation, this is a completely unbalanced situation which means it is clear. he goes on to say we need to tighten monetary policy to bring things back into balance. he wants to go big. potentially another 75. tom: when you hear kashkari talk about that -- talk like that, imagine what we hear from the people mike mckee will speak to in jackson hole. it is simple, fo

here is lisa abramowicz. lisa: i will be doing "real yield." and we have real yields across the board. the first time going back to before the pandemic, a fascinating turn of events given the rally we have seen. 10:00 a.m., this is what we are looking for. if we framed the day definitely, university of michigan sentiment friday. how long for the increase for how people are feeling when you get a reprieve from gas prices? this particular survey closely tracks gas prices. when they got up, people feel worse. how much do we see that trickle into longer-term inflation expectations and how will the fed respond to that? 12:00 p.m., the real world. we saw on wednesday food rose the fastest going back to prices to 1979. how much can supply come back online? how elastic is this market as we deal with drought across the country? the usda world agricultural supply and demand report comes out. we get a sense of corn, soybeans, and what is going to be a host of other commodities. on sunday, saudi aramco reporting earnings. we expect a similar boom in terms

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures -0.2% on the s&p. what a rally through the month of july. tom: it really is. ben laidler is going to give us tone against the bears, and as you know, reaffirming. i thought mike wilson's note with morgan stanley was fascinating. he reaffirms in a slowdown, guess what? at some point the earnings you declines. jonathan: the downgrades should come through fast in a recession. that is his point of view at the moment. we are dreaming, aren't we, going into the data? payrolls this week. tom: it will be a data-dependent fed. forward guidance out the window. we will see payrolls. you've got to pay attention. will the labor economy break? jonathan: over the weekend, neel kashkari of the minneapolis fed spoke twice, pushed back against the euphoria that somehow this fed paul's is coming soon -- fed pause is coming soon. lisa: this really is the key pushback, that fed chair jay powell said we are close to neutral, getting close to getting that rate where it needs to be for this economy. looking at the real yield

tom keene and lisa abramowicz. with things to say, and not at goldman hq. could you imagine, lisa?r a couple of years? lisa: yields were below 2% not too long ago. jonathan: the markets need to readjust to different ways then you are suggesting. lisa: we could have a discussion. this is a fascinating one. jonathan: futures unchanged on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping up-to-date with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. gasoline prices in the u.s. have now fallen for 70 days straight. a that is the most in 7.5 years. pump averages are averaging the dollars $.89 a gallon. -- $3.89 a gallon. there are signs that a recession in europe may be coming to pass. august's drop was driven by manufacturing. consumers have been hit a big jump in both energy and food costs. the u.s. ones that russia is about to launch a round of attacks against ukrainian government facilities. ukraine is preparing to celebrate its independence day on wednesday. president zelenskyy says that russia may try to do something particularly nasty. credit suisse is focusing more on wealth management while it is

tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro., the longest winning streak of the year so far. tom: we will talk football. we will talk jackson hole. but you are right, it's all about the equity markets. huge differences of opinion starting strong this hour. jonathan: there was a great quote on the program last week. the difference between a fair market rally and something more durable, hindsight, apparently. tom: i agree with that. i am watching the mumbo-jumbo going forward and i think a huge amount of that is how unloved this market was on june 16, june 17, and the easy money has been made. now what? jonathan: and this rally is hated in many places. lisa, she said get real. the risk reward remains unattractive. lisa: how much of this has to do with the fundamental earnings that were not terrible but have crossed the lowest fundamental outcome but not phenomenal and how much is this squarely about the federal reserve, p will piling into longer duration treasuries, yields coming down. easing conditions. completely antithetical to

. >> misses bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, jonathan ferro, lizzo from lloyd's and tom keene after a bang up job support and cpi, a stunning market yesterday. every strategist has to recalibrate. lisa: every strategist has to see are we seeing the detailed read we were looking for? the first read in 18 that had the downside weakening trend and the markets rallied it substantially, despite pushback saying it is too soon. tom: green on the screen and the vic's on 20. michael readjusts to an abrupt no. he said there are challenges out there but it is markets in front of economics and he's easily forgotten the basic code. lisa: and not just that, the dollar weakened. if you go back to 2020, it was a substantial risk on move. usually with dollar weakness you seated across the board with the nasdaq, getting it the most with july, all of these things easing together for a full risk on feel that is hard to push again. tom: kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro. we've been trying to get back. let me give you a bramo quest

tom keene back with us, lisa abramowicz. on the nasdaq 100, down by 1.5 percent.er, euro weaker. euro-dollar in and around parity, -0.3 percent. not much price action in the bond market. maybe can it into the move lower in risk assets. in the commodity markets, crude is about natural grass -- natural gas out of europe. it is a tricky moment for the european economy. tom: worth noting the ultimate safe haven, euro swissie, really gets my attention. right now without question our conversation of the week on china, leland miller is cofounder and chief executive officer of china beige book international. more than anyone i know, wired into the menasha of china -- the money shot -- the minutia of china. do you leave in 3%-ish gdp? leland: i don't even think we will hit 3%. people have come around to the idea that this is a weak economy. they are lying a lot less about the numbers, so people can actually see how week consumption is, how weak every aspect of the entire economy outside of exports has been, and even exports now are fading. the data aren't great, but what t

. >> this is tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the week begins now. we're live. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. i'm alongside tom keene. this is jonathan ferro. and kaylee is here. lisa is taking the week off. sm p later this week, and retail sales are targeting early sales. >> we will have that interesting, but i will not mix words. their retail sales with inflation and the job report. for the distant past, my answer is we have a spirit of 70% of the american economy. >> is a nominal read. we have to strip out gas spending as well. just a couple of things to think about when the number drops. >> it's nominal. it's important. nominal in the united states with a certain tinge to it. nominal in the united kingdom has a certain tinge to it. >> double-digit inflation. it's here. >> wow. we have work to do. >> part of it is spending the whole morning on conversions. and how we have loss and how we are looking at the stuff in english. the answer is the biggest fear for all, including the minister. the idea of the duration and pa

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. it is a monday. it is two days before cpi wednesday. kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro. he is offer one day. what an extraordinary weekend. legislation in washington. lisa: it was a game changer for a lot of people, both with respect to the proposals and what it does heading into the midterms, especially as i was driving down the highway and saw gas prices in some places under four dollars a gallon. you pair that with the legislative win and suddenly people are gaming about a different output. tom: a bang up jobs report, it is about the analysis of topline inflation, gas coming down, or core inflation. the bloomberg survey lifts core inflation. lisa: you have on one hand the headline cpi that will rollover and the gas prices are coming down. on the other hand, what does it mean for how far the fed has to go? lisa: people are not coming in a volkerized federal reserve. tom: a lot of the publishing over the weekend, it is good to start with david sarpy with his optimi

for our audience worldwide, on tv and radio, i'm tom keene, with lisa abramowicz.ng you down to an address from jay powell, taking basic couple of hours from now, right here. the fed has a lot of work to do. inflation is a .5%, and the speech from 12 months ago, from this chairman, it failed to capture a moment. >> i've seen on every news source, and the conversation is here. does he drop in a sentence or two, not of apology, but just to note that it got it wrong? >> with bloomberg opinions, maybe we should have the grand mia coper, an event like this. >> lessee does that. what do the transition to? now we are not getting forward guidance, even though we get a lot of discussion, it may be too much, as we were talking earlier. what does it mean in terms of the new regime, if it's not a transitory mea culpa? >> even asking this question, and how long do we hold? hold is something we've heard repeatedly through the week, and a little later, we will have a range of fed interviews, we will catch up with the president. president bullard. frontloaded. are we paying attent

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. live from jackson hole, wyoming for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg "surveillance." with equity futures just about positive, it is going to german powell tomorrow. tom: chairman powell tomorrow and the booming wyoming we are seeing coming in here to the airport, the prosperity of a wyoming that is booming even when in drought. that is part of what we have with productivity dirt. no question about that. massive data dependence. you mentioned earlier the bloomberg article that one since of americans are having trouble paying their electric bills. that is the core issue. jonathon: we spit -- we speak to a .5% in america. lisa: and the fact that this is going to have an is already having a ratification, you are seeing on the margins people are changing what they eat, what they buy, how they travel because of that 8.5% inflation. you talk about this tom. how do you speak to tomorrow? tom: and who do you speak to you? the former governor of the bank of israel, john,

kailey leinz is in for lisa abramowicz. don't ask the cdc if the pandemic is over.general motors. it's a wonderful symbol of how the nation moves forward. jonathan: it has taken time for them to catch up. they hoped to pay out in spring of 2020 and they are back with nine cents a share resuming the share buyback after a two-year hiatus. if you want to go there it is the end of the pandemic, i guess, on that front. tom: the word for me is opportunistic. plan to resume opportunistic share repurchases. we were told that he thinks that tax on share buybacks doesn't matter. it is noise. mary barra is doing a tech equivalent. jonathan: a much, much smaller size because the tech firms are doing it at a bigger level. they have rallied hard off the lows. we start to fade, down .8% on the s&p. the nasdaq down one full percentage point. the -- tom: we do it within a market that is challenging. can we jump to fx? let's talk about the import on a summer friday. these are markets on the foreign-exchange move. kailey: this is super defensive end we have seen the dollar rip into g1

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: welcome to the gloom our. what a set of gloom at the opening of the program. the caution out there, it is extraordinary what we are hearing. jonathan: there is a worry we are going into recession, that we have to cut estimates more than we have seen. question from rbc about whether the june low was the ultimate low for the selloff. tom: equities are up this morning but it's about fed speak. 14 speakers yesterday, 12 today. what are they saying about september? jonathan: we have more work to do seems to be the bottom line. we heard that from mary daly yesterday. it unlocked a big move on the front end of the curve. right now we are super focused on the opec speak. started about 15 minutes ago, according to a delegate. they are going to boost output by 100,000 barrels a day. that will come down like a lead balloon in washington. tom: brent crude breaching out, 101.70. jonathan: we have gone from losses to gains. tom: lisa, with a bond volatility, we are talking about what have we s

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, tom keene and lisa abramowicz. a most unusual tuesday, the market on the move that it is a tuesday of international relations. in two hours plus, the speaker of the house is scheduled to land in taiwan. people looking at flight radar of the trip from singapore through the philippines to taiwan. jonathan: local reports indicating touchdown, something about 10:20. we are all trying to work out how china is going to respond to this. we talked about how china had 35 food exporters. you're going to see more of that and something more direct, specific cap united states. tom: and maybe even something like canceled plans of a biden-xi meeting? maybe even september. you really wonder of the upset and the ramifications of this for global finance and wall street. jonathan: we've been talking about tariffs moments ago. let's be fair, that is taking a backseat. the other issue for me, back in spring, speaker pelosi was do to go to taiwan. yes, we got some pushback, but i don't remember this type of rhetoric, i really don't. wha

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joseph stiglitz speaking with our colleagues tom keene and lisa abramowicz.to throw this forward, the next data point to watch is the child support out of the u.s. we will all be looking at the nonfarm payrolls number and the wage number. the broader conundrum for the fed is whatever the wage number is, check out how negative real inflation is -- or real wages are in the u.s. it really goes to show that there will be sometime before we see any semblance of normalcy here. rishaad: yes. take a look at what is going on with regards to earnings, banks very much in focus for china. the thing is what we have in terms of the central banks is the pressure on them to do something and to be seen to be doing something is immense right now. we have the bank of england coming out with its interest rate decision, pretty much a done deal 50 basis points. andrew bailey has been flagging that with inflation running hot. 9.4% or thereabouts. i guess we have a currency which needs to be defended too. david: yes, absolutely. that goes to the inflation story. you tackle one. some

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. going into payrolls. right now on the s&p unchanged. on the nasdaq, negative by not even .2%. no real drama here. yields up about a basis point. tom: jobs day, we will do that in less than two hours. we do here, the debates that are out there, and they are heated now on the path of the american labor economy. we heard from dominic konstam, anna wong joins us now. maybe more than anyone i know anna wong is moving the other way. anna, we can waxed philosophical about the theory of the phillips curve, the beverage curve, the shift in the beverage curve. he said this is a chairman powell who is not very curvy, and he will just raise rates to bring inflation down? can he ignore theory? anna: that is the thing. theory is very clean. the theory will tell you that, you know, if you want to bring the vacancy rate down the need to increase unemployment, but it ultimately settles the matter of how much the unemployment rate has to rise as you bring down the vacancy rate. right now the debate is exactly on how curvy

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.oments ago we heard from jay powell. >> the federal market committee's overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2% goal. price stability is the responsibility of the federal reserve, and serves as the bedrock of our economy. without price stability the economy does not work for everyone in particular without price stability we will not obtain a sustained period of market conditions that benefit all. the burdens fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them. jonathan: that was chair powell, jay powell, the federal reserve chairman. the market reaction has not been big. lisa: tom picked up on the front end of the yield curve, because that is the most interesting move out there. reaching close to the year highs. at what point do we get that going beyond? with some kind of credence given to what they are saying? jonathan: have you seen what is happening in europe? lisa: that is the story this money. jonathan: the two-year in germany, 17 basis points. we a

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. august, the beginning of september. turmoil in the equity markets. greater turmoil in the foreign exchange markets. jon, lisa and i want you to understand, -- nothing gold can stay. we quote robert frost. lisa: i was hoping that you would throw to jonathan, not me. we had a debate over the break, but am excited for winter. tom: are the markets excited for winter? this is a term all time for the fed. jonathan: we have wiped out the gains from august. down 5% on the s&p. don't fight the fed seems to be the message right now. yesterday we found out good news is bad news. consumer confidence, decent. that means the fed has more work to do. tom: the gentlelady from cleveland with more guidance, data dependency, and the rest. it is a certitude among fed officials that inflation will not pull back. jonathan: the race to what? they are talking about a four handle. lisa: she sees unemployment above 4% by years end. this is the dual mandate that becomes more difficult. the market is still not p

jonathan ferro, tom keene, lisa abramowicz is back next week.asis points, 2.86 on the 10-year this morning. ruth david and david talking about manchester united, reporting a family might make a minority stake in the premier league football team. they're confirming what has circulated already, a management company has already expressed interest. tom: does that surprise you? jonathan: another name, elon musk joked about a deal. just joked. but has not signaled any involvement. tom: we turn now to a reality for every news organization and if there are foreign correspondents in harm's way at any moment. then there's a moment where you are sitting at your desk and the phone rings and your life changes. our annmarie hordern speaks now of very bad days, an important article in bloomberg businessweek, it barely describes what you went through in extricating people from afghanistan. what was it like, that first phone call from anastasia ellis? annmarie: it was heartbreaking and confusing because i did not know much of what i could do. but she is a good f