alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro.ing touched down in edinburgh, scotland. tom: one of the things, if you look back in history, this is the bottom of the royal mile , the scottish parliament, first, the coronation, just adjacent to the palace. the symbolism and the space of scottish independence. if you go earlier this year, there was a different dialogue, to the insurgence of scotland and the london politics. jonathan: and he will have an audience. a little bit later on. lisa, there will be a succession of the guard of honor and an emotional walk to take place behind the queen's casket. lisa: it is going to be incredibly somber and he is to strike the right tone. that is the important thing, unity in the united kingdom at a time of so much change in so many different places. jonathan: we are a witness to history, a momentous occasion for the history of this nation, and i would argue for the rest of the world, looking on as well. the problem that global leaders have to deal with, to descend on the a week from today, bu

with lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. andrew hollenhoff is asking whether it will be neutral. is a moving target. how can they signal that at a time when they want to keep financial conditions tightening? we will not get much clarity. they will have a hawkish tone otherwise the market will move against them. jonathan: we are down 9/10 of 1% on the s&p, yields are higher, dollar is stronger. nick bennenbroek, let's start right there. 4% to 4.5% being priced in. is it restrictive or neutral? nick: probably neutral. you have core inflation at 6.3% in headline inflation at 8%. the forecast at wells fargo is that'll be neutral but we do have risk to the upside. jonathan: they want growth below potential. they want to bring inflation down. how much below potential do we need growth to be to get inflation back toward target, back toward to present? -- back toward 2%? nick: good question. trying to engineer a soft landing is a delicate balance. maybe even unreasonable in terms of expectations. it is landing an aircraft on a picnic blanket. growth of half of 1%, that is very precise th

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ouncing back on the s&p , the nasdaq up .75%. tom: this is a global tuesday and a global tuesday is currencies in revolt. they are the litmus paper of the system and they are screaming fiscal stress. jonathan: fiscal relief as the topic of discussion in europe. $130 billion potentially from liz truss and then $40 billion to help small businesses. that is 170 billion sterling, a lot of money in the u.k.. how does the bond market finance it? tom: the answer is yes. they can always finance it. every single war gets financed. it is the question of what happens after that. that is the question of united kingdom productivity. if they have to go out on a 10 year plan what is the productivity of the nation? jonathan: how high does that you'll need to go, how much weaker does their currency need to get? lisa: and how unsustainable is that rate for a global economy that has taken on so much debt? this is the distinction between now and previous bouts where they're needed to be borrowing to pay f

looking forward to that with tom and lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. ian has been downgraded to a tropical storm after coming to florida with a deadly surge of water and tropical wind. it is said to be one of the most costly storms in u.s. history, about 2.3 million homes without power. it is forecast to move around central florida and merge over the atlantic ocean later today, approaching south carolina on friday and moving inland again. british prime minister liz truss is looking at the package that could send markets into turmoil. the u.k. is facing difficult economic times and the government had to take urgent action to get the economy growing. despite the collapse of the pound and the search in darwin costs, liz truss says she has on the right thing. porsche has gone public. shares of the car maker -- the parent volkswagen raised more than $9 billion at the top of the range. >> if we regulated -- the porsche will decide in the future,

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. tom: not a snooze fest. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping up-to-date with news around the world. the first word, i'm lisa mateo. in the u.k., the liz truss government has announced a sweeping package of measures that contained spiraling energy bills. the goal is to ease a historic squeeze on the cost of living that is likely to define her career shift. the program will lay out how consumers pay for electricity. it will cost the government billions of dollars. the federal bank is on track for 75 basis points hike today. we predict the ecb will take an unprecedented monetary tightening. president bynum will host a video call today with allies on support for ukraine. among those taking part, the group of seven leaders, along with leaders from the european union and nato. it is all taking place at a key moment in the war. ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive against russian troops. meanwhile, vladimir putin meets with china's xi jinping next week. president biden is holding back on

live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we are looking for another 75 basis point hike. tom: markets very dynamic this afternoon. we start strong with dominic any moment. i'm going to push it aside for the real yield. everyone out there noting that finally, the real yield matters. jonathan: the 10 year bond hasn't changed for two days, the first time since 1999. before we get carried away. the doj has gone nowhere, it seems. tom: everybody's afraid they are going to act to make the yen stronger. what that could speak to is a shift in the last few days. and i'm sorry, this will affect the press conference this afternoon. that has got to get everyone's attention at the press conference. jonathan: it has got our attention already in a massive way. the middle of march, about zero. six months later, basically at 3% a little bit later on. we went from the end of 2015 at zero, three years later up to 2.25%. think about how much it took last night over three years to get there. and this time, about six months, or even more. lisa: a

anna edwards in for lisa abramowicz.ism, could we see an unemployment rate that takes us back to harry truman and white david eisenhower? jonathan: the data this week has gone against the gloom. jobless claims yesterday lower than expected. last month, let's not forget last month. 528,000, where did that come from. the estimate today, 298,000. tom: a chief economist said it was like a cold shower on the recession. he is going to study wages, so do i after what we saw with the new adp report. jonathan: the range, high 452, below, 75 has been the defining point of this pandemic. the last two years, every time we have had payrolls friday, the range you can get a london bus through. it has been that wide every single first friday of the month. we are struggling to read this economy. there is little consensus on how big this number will be today. tom: the london bus will have a price up, up, up with inflation. they look to a new prime minister announced monday morning. anna, how does the united kingdom perceive this buoyancy

>> i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. lisa: coming up, sovereign debt bubble starting to burst. central banks ramping up their fight against inflation, pushing investors away from risk and nearly everything else. we begin with the big issue. >> bond prices are down. >> if you look at what is going on and it u.k. this morning, this is em-like. >> [indiscernible] >> i think we will see more damage ahead. >> pretty good place to sit for a while. >> yields are becoming attractive. >> positive long-term and fixed-income. >> i am short. >> it is been especially painful. lisa: there is real yield at a positive level in a way we have not seen since 2009. joining us now, our panel. george, we're looking right now at perhaps one of the biggest resets and at the bond market in modern history. is there a sovereign debt bubble that is bursting? >> lisa, i've been thinking about this for decades since 2008 stop ultimately, the endgame would end up at the doorsteps of the sovereign and i think the low rates were longer, this is not just

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a messy monday. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. futures lower .8% on the s&p. it is all about the fx market. tom: is about the foreign exchange market. we will dive in and take the pro approach and tried to -- there is a tweet. his jon ferro paid in sterling? jonathan: in dollars. tom: that is why he is smiling. sterling has elements of the early 1970's, back before decile inflation in my math, not even a shilling, two pennies, three-part things. jonathan: 10350 the lows of the session. lisa: now the market is pricing in a 50% chance you will see parity on the pound with the dollar by year end. a complete shift in fortune. it highlights the problem most acute in the u.k. how does the rest of the world deal with king dollar at a time when the economy globally is deteriorating and energy bills are crimping the growth of nations worldwide and the federal reserve is dead set on raising rates. j

audience, good morning this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. that dollar a whole lot strong. tom: it is a correlated move with the dollar coming up with authority should -- ding authoritative on it. 200 business days of the year this is the five most correlated days and i heard it from fedex. jonathan: yields are up for seven straight days. that is coming up and morning about the environment. lisa: they are worried about the slowdown of activity and business confidence. to put the scale and scope for the two year deal. one full percentage point since the end of july. that is increasing by one third. tom: and now -- jonathan: and now we are talking about 4%. deutsche bank rates at 5% close to next year, that is the core. lisa: 4.9% but the market is priced in 4.5%. jonathan: summit up, marjorie -- mortgage costs, 6% average. tom: we are not talking about the finance -- the fancy financial stuff. 6.2% on mortgage. here is the math, you have -- you need a much higher income to make a housing dream happen and you will not get it so you will rent.

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. >> >> the u.k. is at the epicenter of the world. live from london for our audience worldwide, this is a brick surveillance, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we are live from london for the next 10 days. a somber mood hanging over the country. tom: different from january. he picked it up right on heathrow today. it is the beginning of 10 days of mourning for the queen. getting used to it, we will hear from charles the third. >> a change of leadership in more ways than one. lisa: massive change on multiple fronts. you have a change for the new prime minister and change for the new inflationary regime. you had the change with brexit and the change in the person who is the glue for cultural aspects of modern britain. how will the new leader take over? tom: the number one buzzword has been continuity. how many times have we heard the word continuity? 70 years on the throne. the biggest statistic i've heard over the last 24 hours has been the fact that she rained for longer th

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz.e from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance here comes another rate from the bank of the line. 1.75% cut to 50, on the interest rate from 1.75% to 2.5%. or 2.25%. forgive me. 175 to 225. a 50 basis point hike. lisa, clean this up. lisa: [laughter] part of this is my fault. you said right before the decision, what do you think? i said definitely 75 basis points. five voted for 50, 3 for 75, 2 for 100. this is fascinating at a time when people are trying to understand, is it good or is it bad for the currency for this banking lend to go harder? jonathon: i feel bad. 11286. we are now unchanged on this session on sterling's stock. tom: the challenge, as jonathan does, pretending to do it in real time. literally 40 headlines come out at once and they are scrolling by enabler. every once in a while, you see this headline and that, and you are off by a smidgen. i think it is always a challenging moment for the bank. the verbiage here will be

i'm alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. futures are down 2%. the tenure is 400. >> they are deciding it is the same as it was. it was a crisis two or three days ago. my head has been spinning pit i've been up since 1:30 a.m. watching asia and europe unfold. i will point out two things. the euro gives way and it is subtle, but a weaker euro, and the 10-year is not part of the bloomberg this morning. >> a 10 year treasury market up six basis points to 4%. we go back to november 2020. that is where we are at. just think about that. all the vaccination gains of the last two years are wiped out. i was going to call it a draw crater, but it is down 4%. down 20%. the nasdaq is really getting some tension. it is down 32%. the equity is giving way. it is a different story. truly, -- you have dan eyes for the night. this will be great, but we have a global sense of this. we're going to talk about this later, but that imf statement. >> don't get me started. >> i was in a school open house last night, i was at a school open house, and that is what people w

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: annecy end to a messy week. welcome back. my partners in crime tom keene and jonathan ferro are off watching reruns of ted lasso together which is great because we have kailey leinz and damian sassower in the seat. it feels like something is breaking, a sea change in markets. kailey: i love the way our colleague john authers put it. this is a week that shook the world. each and every day some kind of market fiasco seems to have happened in terms of pricing assets. we have seen intervention to stem the weakness in the japanese yen for the first time since 1998. we have seen the fed say we will go farther and stay higher for longer than the market anticipated. after a 50 basis point hike from the boe yesterday this market pricing in a 50% chance they get 100 because of the fiscal policies in the u.k.. lisa: damien, your world is driving so much of this. people looking for something to break in the developing world. our thing starting to break? damian: if you're including japan and

>> this is "bloomberg serveillance: early edition" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance. i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 10%. the close yesterday, a new low for 2022. tom: you said turnaround tuesday, that does capture. combining different asset classes and different ideas here as more to follow. bloomberg radio, same thing, more to follow. jonathan: the high, 9.31. that is quite a range. tom: guess what, folks, the pros are really looking at this volatility. one idea to look at is the real yield. you are familiar with that, this is what all the adults follow. the inflation-adjusted yields. this is stunning, stunning, stunning. 83% back from that run to the average before the great financial crisis of 2.05%. most of that has been done in the last three cups of coffee. jonathan: that is a couple of days of the yield curve in the u.k.. 100 basis points, something close to that? lisa: 50 basis points every day, showing that the five-day increase has been the most on record going back to 1979. the reason w

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: september, where did that come from? live from new york city. good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. alongside tom keene i'm jonathan ferro together with anna, bramo will be back on monday. michael: on 2 -- tom: on tuesday, monday is labor day. jonathan: no one told me. tom: here we go. the markets are moving. forget about a lazy august thursday. every part of my launch tag on bloomberg has an important story. we start with a crushing new weakness in sterling. jonathan: 1.1599 on my screen. i was looking at the performance last month for august. gilt yields were up 94 basis points on the 10 year and still pound sterling posted the biggest monthly loss going back to late 2016 and moving forward .5%. high yields are not helping out pound sterling. tom: we will brief you on all of these aspects and give you the research literally coming up in real-time. hsbc publishes and emphasize the longer tightening cycle europe and the united kingdom need to deal with.

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: you think cpi tuesday from london is a bit weird? lisa: it is. jonathan: from london for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. future slightly positive. a bit of a bounce. a four day winning streak into tuesday. tom: cpi around the corner. kit jukes with us in a few minutes. i would suggest this is a different inflation report. it is the magnitude we could see. jonathan: it is less degree into the federal reserve position. lisa: and we do not have fit officials speaking. it will be interesting to see how markets react considering people are prepped for 75 basis points. tom: last night over a beverage john said tom, you are in a silent period. jonathan: it would not be the first time we've had a big upside surprise on cpi and someone broke the quiet period with a lead to a decision. i am not saying that is going to happen. most people looking for a softer print. lisa: whether we see a new wall street journal article or not, it seems pretty clear

this is an extended edition of "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowiczbalance, from london worldwide, this is a special edition of "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan stepped out so it's special because it's just tom and myself. but it's been a morning of a slew of economic news. tom: the team did a great job cooking us through the thursday and what an eclectic set of opinions that we have. the fed met to work off and say flat out they are wrong and the idea that consumers are remarkably buoyant. lisa: i love the idea that people are in a robust debate about the fed being able to take its foot off the brake. core inflation showing it's a hot economy. tom: i was taught, and i well may be wrong, but the weekly high-frequency data has value. that this is not a troubled america. lisa: good news being bad news, s&p futures are down at 39 ta. on the margins, right? not catastrophic. the nasdaq is down a bit more. that's the theme. the nasdaq selling off disproportionately. 12 180. the yield space is what i'm watching, the two year yield is grinding higher. none

>> this is an extended edition of bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from london, good morning or good afternoon. this is bloomberg surveillance and the countdown to open blended into one beautiful thing. equity futures heading lower and another leg lower in the last 30 minutes. down about 1%, 1.3 percent on the s&p 500. i am jonathan ferro. futures down 1.4% now on the s&p. i cannot keep up. tom: the deterioration of the last 90 minutes has been exceptional. your login next -- at spx 3800, we are here. dow 10,000. a dow 29,000 handle. jonathan: i do not think you mentioned the dow this morning and then you wait until the 9:00. tom: we are going into the market hour and we note the america looks at the dow. jonathan: let's look at fedex. what are we down by? 20%? lisa: staying there because of this morning. this morning has a velocity of change in the business outlook was what caused them to downgrade their guidance? how much will this be a story for others? jonathan: it is a story for michael mckee. fedex not getting a great read on th

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom king, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from our london -- live from london this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. equities and futures bouncing back a little bit but yesterday there was a one day drop on the s&p going all the way back to 2020. tom: back to the pandemic, let us call it the ninth drop in history. on a red zone and green zone basis it was a reset and maybe it is reset wednesday. far more than that is a way that we closed yesterday afternoon. there was no sense. jonathan: closed at the lows yesterday. yields higher, much higher and introduced some uncertainty not about next week, it introduced certainty about next week. uncertainty about what would follow in november and after that whether this will have to go a whole lot bigger. lisa: you saw people pricing in a rate hike coming next week, and then saying that in markets it is a 1-3 chance being priced into the market, a full one percentage point rate hike even though that has not been on the table previously and then a 75 basis poin

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: congratulations. you made it to the end of the third quarter. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. equity futures positive .7%. another messy quarter behind us. tom: another messy quarter. the acts of foreign affairs magazine, 2022 was his fault. look where we are in this derivative story in the united kingdom. it is absolutely front and center for mobile wall street. the bloomberg financial conditions index for the united kingdom is not reversed, it was moving down this morning to new levels of restriction for the nation. jonathan: we have got a lot of problems to deal with for the global economy and global markets. three straight porters of negative return for the s&p 500. i did not realize this. you have to go back to 2009 to see a streak that bad. lisa: when it comes to bond losses, the flipside is, there is no place to hide. stocks are selling off. the nature of that selloff is continuing to change. overnight, we have had a number of earnings. they have not gon

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.lds flying over the last couple weeks. good morning. for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. t.k. back in the building tomorrow. futures down 0.4%. the s&p down 0.5%. we said it repeatedly the last ever that it is a reset in the bond market. lisa: a complete reset with the banks having decisions and all raising rates with the exception of the bank of japan. everyone is talking about regime change, fighting inflation, and you are seeing that through the market. jonathan: what gets your attention more so, the level or the speed of change we have seen the last few weeks? lisa: it is both, but the speed is shocking. the highest level yields going back to 2007, it is already there, but the speed, three percentage point increase. how much work has the bond market done for the fed? it seems like the fed does not think enough, which is the reason why they are saying 100 basis points could be on the table during the meeting. jonathan: all the way back to 20

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro, together with the brilliant kailey leinz. equity futures positive on the s&p. over the last seven days on the nasdaq, a seven-day losing streak. lisa: it has been brutal, especially the why. one of the most interesting things that happened overnight was weaker than expected chinese economic data fueling this feeling of deteriorating economic trajectory globally with the european energy crisis, china, and now potentially even in the u.s. jonathan: dollar china this close to a seven handle. how important is that? lisa: leland miller was saying it is not that important, a psychological level, bright now it does not seem like the chinese authorities are pushing back that hard. they are just trying to control how quickly they see the weakening. it seems unavoidable. if you have a currency that reflects all economic and rate differentials, how does this not make sense that the dollar should continue to strengthen versus the chinese yuan? jonathan: kailey, dollar dominance the big story in this market. kailey: and it is against ever