and also a recession. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowiczof you to our studios. lisa will be there so look for that here. as you mentioned earlier the shock of nine days better than good then the gloom crowd of december 29. jonathan: what a difference. up 10% today. up about 8% year to date before today mention a couple of single names. tom: jonathan: yeah. jonathan:copper prices, take your pick. high yields, united states. tom: i like how you run copper this is about reopening and i would suggest that china reopening is not a score they people that predicted that or a call. -- goal. i would say it's about shock the total unpredictable shock. jonathan: when we go to china, it will be a lot more tolerant. it wouldn't have mattered with the data was overnight. it was better than estimated. whatever they want to tell you about china. people appreciate the idea and things are better now than they were a few months ago and the fact that you can see not just out of china but also europe goldman coming out last week and saying europe can escape rec

jonathan ferro and london, lisa abramowicz back from the alps. i'm tom keene. an important conversation with jeremy stretch. welcome back from happy valley. lisa: it was happy. tom: read the gloomiest? lisa: no, was the divergence between economy and markets. people were optimistic on the economy and markets not so clear. tom: lots and lots to talk about. let's link it into maybe the key statistic and may be a surprise for viewers and listeners, and that is simply q4 gdp first look , 2.7%. i guess that is a recession. lisa: this is compelling. tom: do people know this? lisa:, to end up with a recession? how much do we get a better -- how much do we end up with a recession? this goes back to the idea of profit margins. morgan stanley, two reports coming from the economic perspective to get a soft landing and from a market perspective, we will get the drop off and see it in this quarter. tom: if jon was here, we would talk to him but he is in london. he said he is waiting for the last stage of a bear market. lisa: companies will not lay off workers as they had in

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. features are basically unchanged. >> s the number, and it's going to be interesting. there is a mystery to this. this was a mystery report. we don't know the end of december because as said, lots of labor statistics. a big tossup. >> eight consecutive months. >> yes. >> all the way back to spring. >> i have coverage on radio with paul sweeney and james glassman, without question, the most accurate labor calls. there was gloom about it that was wrong. the tech story is tangible but it is not a labor economy. >> labor market data this week has been tech from after tech from announcing what we have gotten used to over the last 12 months with his job comes -- which is job cuts. >> wire people not listening to the labor market data more, when fed officials are saying that is what matters to them? the charts i am watching say that fed fund rates and where the market is pricing in the terminal rate. as gotten to 5%. but it is nowhere near where all the fed officials are saying we are going t

lisa abramowicz, maybe in transit. in davos.nd as we get to february 1. jonathan: two words. risk management. when you start to get more conservative, you go in little bit more slowly. that is what they are expected to do. chair powell will talk about walking around in a dark room, you have to be careful. they are worried about risk, overdoing it, and doing too little. tom: i would suggest it is uncharted territory, uncertain territory. they are making it up as they go and they are data-dependent, and they saw some lousy data. jonathan: dependent on what data? that is what we need to talk about. unemployment is at 3.5%. can we continue to see a softening in wages without the deterioration of the labor market? so far so good. cannot continue? how can you compare what you were seeing in claims, what you were hearing from multinationals, amazon making big cuts? tom: it will be interesting to see, this claims data, the shock of claims is in the nonfarm payroll report that is february 2 or third. to your point, i think this is so imp

lisa abramowicz alongside faith birol in davos.think this was italy, and i think this was turned around. jonathan: i may have been that guy sitting next to you during that. do want to pick up on the commodities of story? that live from goldman. you cannot come up with a more bullish concoction for commodities right now. he went beyond crew. tom: you have been out front on copper. jonathan: 11,500 is the number he is talking -- he is looking for. tom: we heard from simon french. why is this bad news? we are reopening off of a global medical event, and to me it is all plus, plus, plus as it gets us back to normal incentives, and heaven forbid, moderate is prized in some general equilibrium. jonathan: we are still trying to figure out how much comes about from the revenge spend we are expecting from the chinese consumer and whether we go back to some of the issues we were grappling with last year. i go back to the same question. supply-side relief because the factories get going to focus capacity again, or supply-side dislocations? to

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. g. these are the conversations we are having. the whole idea of 2002 uncertainty and this path we are on to becoming certain. lisa: certain of optimistic views is the tone and at what point do you push back? the certainty of the first three weeks of the year is up. tom: in the last three weeks, there have been tests of down and down quickly, and whether it is 10:00 a.m. or 2:00 p.m., a bid finds a market. lisa: do you buy into hope or get a gut check and understand where the consensus could be wrong? if the market is going to maximize pain, where will it be, a resurgent dollar, tech selling off, long end yields going up? tom: we are going to give you both -- you bowties stuff on economics. we go earnings central. i'm looking at the red headline. american airlines, 189 the estimate, coming in large with a $2.5 to $3.5 looking out this year, a big lift. lisa: have you bought plane tickets recently? you go with the margins and people like them. you are not seeing them in other areas the s

lisa abramowicz and david westin and davos with bob prince.oldman sachs, morgan stanley out with results this morning. you could not see a more divergent market reaction. morgan stanley sees a healthy start. goldman sees a major increased in cost and credit provisions. we heard from james gorman moments ago. >> we are not of the view we are heading into a dark period. whatever negativity in the world is out there, that is not our view. we want to make sure we are positioned for growth. alix: that was james morgan of morgan stanley. sonali, you have the goldman sachs underway. the stock continues to grind lower the longer the call goes on. what is on the negative side? sonali: there are a few details worth making in. it is david solomon's birthday. you have him addressing analysts saying it was not a great quarter. the focus on compensation expenses. analysts are drilling in. you have compensation expenses really rising, adding to overall expenses rising. you don't have seven costs booked into the fourth quarter -- severance costs booked into t

you are listening to the chevron ceo speaking at the world economic forum with lisa abramowicz.oining us for more insight on the story and with the latest numbers show about growth, demand and commodities is john and fernando. fernando, i want to start with the market trade. it feels like the consensus is the idea china reopening will be ultimately bullish for the oil market. but how do you price that in when the numbers, case count and death count out of china are still up for grabs? fernando: absolutely. that is starting to become more consensus now. if you look at the pre-pandemic levels, or 2021 levels, they were around 600,000 barrels a day higher than in 2022. that is almost 1% of the oil demand globally. if we see a pickup on those imports, it could have a significant change to the oil price. as mike highlighted, there is an issue with supply. that is one of the issues we called out for several months now which we think will show up in the second half of 2023 as shale disappoints and brazil and opec come shy of expectations. that can lead to the prices going higher and th

lisa abramowicz and myself in earning central as we look back. d to stand still, you are too young to remember this. ma bell. nobody cares. lisa: the big industrial and the classic utility companies, whether they will be more important at a time of more stability, what i find interesting is they missed it when they came to certain aspects of their earnings. but next year, the capex increasing more than people expected. i'm going to stick with this kind of theme for the earnings season. tom: we want to see as well and then tesla this afternoon, it is not a small matter. the former will come up in a tesla discussion. lisa: is it a tech company, a car company? is this a leading indicator for next week, we get some of the auto manufacturers and amazon and google and some of the other tech giants, i don't know how it's being accounted for. tom: moffat nathanson, sterling doing a great job on microsoft and moments ago they lowered their target price, tweaking it down from 26232 268. the back-and-forth we see in this nascent earnings season. right now, o

get to a deeper downturn. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz abramowitz, and tom keene. we welcome you. an economic and finance investment report tomorrow, but now, it is the nation still with planes on the ground. we are hearing more from the white house and the secretary of transit tatian and a beleaguered the faa. excellent the top. we've had the failure of an administration which has been all morning. the latest we have heard is that flights have been halted until 9:30 a.m. eastern time. this is according to the faa in a bulletin. the last tweet we had from them is that the faa has paused all the mastic departures to validate the integrity of flight and safety information. as for the president, think about the cause. the president says that the faa will have a sense of the cause. >> yes. i don't know where to go with that, frankly. there is a lot of snarky stuff on twitter, frankly. we don't need to do that. i would look at the speed of twitter in the is additions on twitter, and the one i just saw was 39 minutes ago. we have seen radio sil

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. tom keene in new york. jonathan ferro in london. i am lisa abramowitz. core pce, income and spending. tom: we have been a mess here. looking at the collapse of intel and such. we have a huge turning dump coming in at 8:30. at 10:00. jon ferro has been ahead of me on this. i am not a fan of confident statistics. i am posh about it. lisa: it is because they did not call you. tom: exactly. i am looking at michigan sentiment. michigan five and 10 year forward inflation expectations, that is big data this morning. lisa: we have been fed fee because we have been focused on earnings on tangible day today on companies that have been reporting. this conversation will shift. it is the quiet period ahead of next wednesday. tom: thank god for that. lisa: the conversation may shift if you get core pce that comes in above expectations. tom: to me, the mystery is economic growth. we will do that in a moment with andrew balls with john in london. cen

lisa abramowicz and tom keene here. an important day for goldman sachs.look at a set of anticipated layoffs at goldman sachs. we will follow up on that. right now we have futures up 20, dow futures up 121. there is an equity left but it is accompanied with a pullback. higher yields this morning off the huge lower yield movement we saw on friday. in the foreign exchange market, the dollar gives it up. i should point out yuan, 6.78 off the china news. right now on the economy, on what we saw on friday and the adjustment forward, she is with adp. most locked into our paychecks of any company in the country. she is their chief economist. nila richardson. i want to focus on what adp sees , not your proprietary stuff, i do not need the state secrets, but with the advantage of your payroll knowledge, what did you learn friday and how does it amend your view forward? nila: we learned that over a million clients are still hiring rather aggressively. we also learned that hiring intensity is coming from small and medium firms blocked out through a lot of the hiring

our lisa abramowicz spoke to the chief executive of that wealth fund. let's get to our mliv managing editor mark cudmore, good morning, welcome to london, you are looking at nasdaq? mark: i've arrived here. it's such an exciting week. everyone is asking what the fed, the ecb, the bank of england, which narrative is most exciting? my head is full of fondue, i am avoiding tough questions, the price action is not good. hang seng contracting, crypto giving back gains, and the nasdaq yesterday for the 100 it was the worst day in more than five weeks. in fact, it came at a critical time. just as the index last week had made its highest close since the middle of september. it really looked like it was breaking out of the ranges have been stuck in the last few months, a positive story of macro disinflation, but the goldilocks world has been rejected. you can excuse this negative price action is just being month end. that might be the case, but if you get another poor day at a go the wednesday-friday catalysts, this might give us a couple of weeks of negative pr

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> earnings season begins now. live from new york, worldwide, this is bloomberg. i'm alongside tom keene. this is jonathan ferro. equity futures are down .1 percent. looking to hear from bank of america. perhaps a little bit more from j.p. morgan later. can you keep up? >> i can keep up. you think i am not here? happy friday to you. it is going to be interesting to see. it is always interesting, but evermore so with inflation. how banks deal with it, how banks deal with traditional banking, and what they do. the answer is they do exactly one thing. here in davos's, they will cut costs. >> let start with tesla. >> is a busy friday. 20% price cut. u.s. and europe. >> dick bove or was a giant at morgan stanley, and once it dinner, we walked through fixed costs and variable cost to a company. i would suggest that a automobile company is a massively fixed costs business. when you cut 20% and pricing, revenue is a unit in pricing. you do need a real unit makeup to cover any of the marginal fixed cost changes.

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance, with tom keene, jonathan ferro come in lisa abramowicz. a massive day ahead, so tom keene took the day off. i'm jonathan ferro counting you down to a massive week ahead with the federal reserve on wednesday, payrolls friday come in earnings in between. equity futures down 1%. we have the big debate on wall street. mike wilson on morgan stanley, and the other side max kettner of hsbc saying you should chase this. steve chevron saying he was jumping on board with the rally this year. lisa: the biggest bearers are actually going in on this rally because they do not see a reason for it to stop. you have steven major on one side saying we might be close to the penultimate rate hike which could signal a sustained bond rally and then you have hedge funds boosting their short positions on treasuries to a record. this question around the push/pull of whether the fed can push back against a market that seems to be moving in the direction they want. tom: the 10% -- jonathan: a 10% or 11% rally on the nasdaq will change things and that is what has hap

she spoke with lisa abramowicz in davos. >> i came into the year thinking that as we came out of a yeary, we didn't know how the environment would move along, by march or april, we should have a pretty good thinking of where interest rates will land, how interest rates will move forward. the one, new factor i have le what does the reopening of china really mean? what does that mean in terms of spurring economic growth? there is a human tragedy occurring with the pandemic, as the world has experienced, but as they get past that, there is an enormous amount of savings, a huge appetite to get out in the world. you are also seeing a different conversation that chinese officials are having about working together. i feel like that could spur more economic growth but also creates more uncertainty as to how the interest-rate environment could evolve this year. >> what that could do to crude prices among many other things. >> i am hopeful that we will have a more known environment. if we do come investors and companies can allocate capital more successfully. that will help the markets a lot. >>

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: we have a friday, fed week next week, we readjust. think about the weekend. backdrop, the overwhelming reality is a not stunning but just a good equity market pushing against the bears. lisa: even though you do have a bifurcated picture from the earnings coming out -- we saw yesterday from visa and mastercard that spending is down, consumers are spending less. american express just now crossing earnings, which are up. the expectation is up for this year. hard to find a cohesive picture at a time of such distortion. tom: i looked at the apple dividend stream and share buyback stream -- i will get to that in moment. there is the headline, and american express to boost quarterly dividend by 15%. that does not sound like recession policy purely but you look at intel, and it looks like recession policy. it looks like a kitchen sinking of the whole affair. so who is the mainstream, the zeitgeist with idiosyncratic stories telling such different narratives? tom: a little bit of a revenue

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: it's difficult, we will have difficulty for you in 29 minutes. the minimum, it's complex. jonathan: just pick sites. tom: 200 two 202. jonathan: the labor market this week has been resilient. if the adp is worth anything to you we have a surprise from that. jobless claims really low you can throw on top of that what we have seen with job openings. 1.7 openings for every single unemployed american. the official data is screaming things are ok. then you have a load of other people that think this is as good as it gets. tom: it's a game we have right now. neil comes out and says real income look pretty good and they do because inflation, particularly in important sectors like utilities is coming in a bit i want to know what secretary process to say this morning. jonathan: they hope neil does this right and the pessimists are wrong. tom: because it really feels yielded is right. -- neil does is right. john come as her to make it right. tom: -.19 tells me chairman powell once a gloomy

lisa abramowicz is standing by with qualcomm ceo. >> thank you so much. right now, we are here with visteon noah moaned. cristiano amann area --. we have some of the softness of what people are expecting downline when people come to automation. i wanted to start with this industry. where are we in terms of the downturn in smartphone sales as well as on the chip site? >> we hit on an acceleration of people buying better phones and new phones, especially when phones became useful for collaboration and how people are communicating through the pandemic. we saw acceleration, but now, when you have a microeconomic factor, it is coming from the supply chain constraints, and what happened in china during the lockdown. we saw that the smartphone market slowed down, and people were buying less phones. it is physically those factors. we expect to see two of those three factors probably to not be there in the second half. china has an expectation that they will resume growth, and it is a big market as well. and their inventory correction due to supply-chain shortages

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> new rule. in the new year, payroll should come out on the second friday of the month. it doesn't feel right. >> you want to be depressed? someone on twitter goes with more talk of debt default then several hours of silver place. >> you and i do not exist. we will catch up in 20 minutes. we will run through the default. life, good morning. it is payroll friday with something like 202,000. that is a median estimate in the survey here at bloomberg. the firm looks for 250,000 in the month. >> will do this differently. three this right is here with a fixed income angle, and we will look at the wage dynamics. it is a wage number that we will see at 8:30 a.m.. >> a consensus in the job market, that has been the place to be over the last eight or nine months. >> here is the issue. what do you do with a payroll report? what do you do with the blockbuster number? you buy stock or sell bonds? how do you respond at a time when the fed will look at this is a green light to go hard against inflation and crea

we are going to pause the program right now and lisa abramowicz and i are going to go all engineering tech. lisa, in tear -- intel, failure, apple, success. that is what this is about. lisa: big tech is not monolithic. you are seeing divergence, and intel highlights that. especially with other chipmakers doing ok this money. tom: $32, down to $28. this is bloomberg. coming, anna edwards. -- coming up, anna edwards. lisa m: bloomberg has learned that vladimir putin is planning a new offensive in ukraine. the russian president is also preparing his country for a conflict with the u.s. and its allies that he expects to last for years. the kremlin wants to show its forces and regain the initiative after months of losing ground. it is hoping to force ukraine and its backers to agree to some kind of truce. the international monetary fund is considering an aid package for ukraine worth as much as $16 billion. bloomberg has learned there are still a number of conditions , including endorsement from the group of seven nations. ukraine's government would also need to commit to a series of polic

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is cpi thursday, live from new york city this morning, good morning, good morning, for our audience worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. bramo will be back in a couple of days. tom: really important, michael mckee trueness with a great set of guests on the ramifications on this. it's a great partition, it is goods dynamics and services dynamics and adults like michael mckee will look at the service changes. jonathan: the fed credit -- president is leaning toward a 20 5% rate hike. tom: i think that's the parlor game and we will not stop the show on this but it's a global cpi thursday. it's the same debate in china. in japan this morning. post pan dimmick, is inflation the metric of all of those ramifications? almost outright deflation in the united states. jonathan: you mentioned japan, will we get a change of policy in japan? the local newspaper suggested their mate will be a policy review as soon as next week. tom: i went to the japanese data which i'm not been expert on. yo

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan arrow and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a brilliant week of conversation. bob michele of jp morgan was absolutely brilliant yesterday. live from new york city this morning, good morning for our audience worldwide, this is newburgh surveillance on tv and radio. -- this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. the bad news is just bad news. bonds are doing what bonds are meant to do. tom: it is whiplash, whatever you want to call it, my head is spinning over the shift from whatever you are talking about whether it be good news or bad news. it's hugely tangible after the data yesterday. jonathan: our next guest will tell us the mood following the price action. following the biggest one-day decline on the s&p 500, the markets new year rally has concluded. that's the latest from evercore this morning. tom: stay with us on television and radio because we will do this off the fixed income market which is if you are in stocks, that's you just what you observe in the two year yield today is a textbook case of if you

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm jonathan ferro equity features positive about4/10 of 1%. really, warm fuzzy stuff is in it for the year ahead and you heard again and again in the opening sequence bonds are back. lisa: i know this is counter intuitive but you have to think if everybody is expecting armageddon and you aren't seeing some of the worst case scenarios does it mean you can link against that for a couple of months? jonathan: why does mama bear sound so bullish on the first trading day of the year? lisa: look on looking at all of this and you see better than expected outcomes when it comes to a warmer than expected winter, the reopening of china, you start to see the mobility data change. how does that counter some of the real bearish especially when the consumers are still spending and you see wages going up how much does it really create a complicated narrative that goes against the consensus? jonathan: some of the data through this week, a ton of it and you get payroll

farrow is in london and lisa abramowicz is finally back from switzerland. i'm here in new york and we know we are not in this equity market. the bottom line is equity markets are up. lisa: how do you get faith that this is something sustainable? that is the question as it's led by the riskiest assets whether it's the emerging markets or europe versus the u.s. it's a reversal of what we tom: tom: saw from last year. we will talk in a global basis in a moment. i will go back to ralph ankum who was with us and he said there was a bottom in october and that's a lonely view. lisa: i like how you put technical analysis in its pit -- in its place which is one piece of the puzzle. the momentum, how does that fly in the face of doom and gloom? there is temporary optimism that people have. tom: you can see the economics and the fed babbled through what you see in the charts. i will say it's a boring january screen and futures are at negative 80 but there is lots of incongruent teas because we are coming out of a pandemic, china is opening and there is massive uncertai

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz., everyone. on radio, television, into the jobs report of tomorrow in 30 minutes, 29 minutes. the claims report, a first look at the pulse of the labor economy here looking into 2023. i will look at wages tomorrow but we have claims today. jonathan: the official data says the labor market is type so job are -- tight so job markets are open. then you have the labs mounting from company to company. the quote of the last 24 hours, revenue accelerated to the pandemic, we are -- we hired too many people, effectively hearing the same thing from amazon and the question i thing many people are asking this morning looking at the name, is 18,000 going to get it done at amazon if they want to address the cost structure of the company? tom: 1.5 million jobs at amazon, bringing it down by eight that -- 18,000. are they feeling the same angst as salesforce? jonathan: and when does this add up as we see -- so we see it in the official data? tom: it lags. jonathan: you mentioned wages in and around 5%

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, tom keene and lisa abramowicz.e from new york city this morning, good morning. for the audience worldwide on tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." breaking news, salesforce to cut 10% of jobs. tom: i think it has been signaled with the executive 5% pay minimum to people shown the door. there is a fuller rate -- flurry that people exiting big tech are finding new jobs. i do not know if that is true, but prime age workers are pretty much employed. it is the old people and the young people that have not come back to work. jonathan: the statement from leadership tells you the story pretty quickly. as revenue accelerated through the pandemic, we hired too many people. the leadership say they take full responsibility for that. lisa: and there were many industries that did build the workforce. it raises the question. how representative of the broader labor market is this? there is inherent tightness that is represented in the numbers. jonathan: let's talk tesla and apple. let's start with apple. bush, he is well